Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195042 times)
Skye
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« Reply #1175 on: November 10, 2019, 04:21:30 PM »

Ciudadanos really imploded lol.
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rc18
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« Reply #1176 on: November 10, 2019, 04:24:21 PM »


They are currently behind VOX even in Catalonia...
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Skye
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« Reply #1177 on: November 10, 2019, 04:28:17 PM »

PP just took a deputy out of the hands of the PSOE in Madrid.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1178 on: November 10, 2019, 04:30:13 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 04:36:44 PM by Velasco »

In the end, PSOE just needs more Yes than Noes, getting abstentions wouldn't be really that hard if they weren't so greedy.

It's true that Sánchez just needs more affirmative than negative votes to pass the investiture. It was possible this summer with a coalition government with UP, backed by the PNV, PRC and Compromís and with the ERC abstention. Now it's worse, as the climate is much more strained after the ruling of the Supreme Court and the protests in Catalonia. Now we have a very strong far right party, replacing another force allegedly centrist and liberal but with a strong nationalist trait. Do you expect that Casado and his group will abstain for free in this scenario? PP will demand an iron hand in Catalonia, which is the perfect recipe for disaster. In my opinion Pedro Sánchez and Albert Rivera, alongside Carles Puigdemont ad Quim Torra, are the main culprits for this nightmare. I'd say that Albert Rivera should resign now, but our politicians are never responsible for the disasters they create: Pablo Casado and Susana Díaz are still around. Sánchez will survive but... at what cost?
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jaichind
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« Reply #1179 on: November 10, 2019, 04:31:13 PM »

94.18% counted

PSOE   28.07%  120
PP        20.79%   88
VOX     15.12%   52
UP        12.81%  35
C           6.79%   10
Mas       2.40%     3
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1180 on: November 10, 2019, 04:33:41 PM »

The sad thing is if you are Sanchez, this was a good election in your warped mind. You lose little seats, Podemos gets punished, and the combined right is near exactly the same as last time. Govt formation this time can only occur with cross bloc abstentions, be that PP or C's - which means Podemos  Coalition is automatically out. But these numbers are far more unstable.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #1181 on: November 10, 2019, 04:40:30 PM »

Looks like deadlock again...

At least it looks like PP has improved a bit.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1182 on: November 10, 2019, 04:54:37 PM »

97.89% counted (I think we are pretty much done)

PSOE   28.02%  120   (-3)
PP        20.80%   88 (+22)
VOX     15.10%   52 (+28)
UP        12.82%  35   (-7)
C           6.79%   10  (-47)
Mas       2.40%     3   (new party)
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bigic
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« Reply #1183 on: November 10, 2019, 04:57:19 PM »

In Melilla it's currently very close between PP (6822 votes) and CpM (6781). 75,57% counted.
Edit: CpM now leads.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1184 on: November 10, 2019, 04:59:55 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 05:04:16 PM by Oryxslayer »

In Melilla it's currently very close between PP (6822 votes) and CpM (6781). 75,57% counted.
Edit: CpM now leads.

If last time is any indicator, PP will regain the  lead. CpM led for a lot longer that time, but PP pulled it back because of how the segregated neighborhoods were counted.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1185 on: November 10, 2019, 05:06:37 PM »

The sad thing is if you are Sanchez, this was a good election in your warped mind. You lose little seats, Podemos gets punished, and the combined right is near exactly the same as last time. Govt formation this time can only occur with cross bloc abstentions, be that PP or C's - which means Podemos  Coalition is automatically out. But these numbers are far more unstable.

Even if Sánchez has a warped mind, this outcome is dissapointing. Sánchez and his clique decided to go for a new election thinking that a "cautious majority" would reward 140 seats to the PSOE  Sánchez will survive, but the Spanish democracy steps back.
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bigic
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« Reply #1186 on: November 10, 2019, 05:09:30 PM »

In Melilla it's currently very close between PP (6822 votes) and CpM (6781). 75,57% counted.
Edit: CpM now leads.

If last time is any indicator, PP will regain the  lead. CpM led for a lot longer that time, but PP pulled it back because of how the segregated neighborhoods were counted.

The collapse of Cs and the decline of PSOE (over 4% down) might mean that this time it may not be true...
84,31% counted, CpM 38 votes more than PP
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #1187 on: November 10, 2019, 05:11:26 PM »

In Melilla it's currently very close between PP (6822 votes) and CpM (6781). 75,57% counted.
Edit: CpM now leads.

If last time is any indicator, PP will regain the  lead. CpM led for a lot longer that time, but PP pulled it back because of how the segregated neighborhoods were counted.

The collapse of Cs and the decline of PSOE (over 4% down) might mean that this time it may not be true...
84,31% counted, CpM 38 votes more than PP

Who are CpM?
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Skye
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« Reply #1188 on: November 10, 2019, 05:12:36 PM »

99% of the vote is in, and it seems that (once again) the main ideological blocs are roughly tied in terms of votes.
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skbl17
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« Reply #1189 on: November 10, 2019, 05:13:23 PM »

In Melilla it's currently very close between PP (6822 votes) and CpM (6781). 75,57% counted.
Edit: CpM now leads.

If last time is any indicator, PP will regain the  lead. CpM led for a lot longer that time, but PP pulled it back because of how the segregated neighborhoods were counted.

The collapse of Cs and the decline of PSOE (over 4% down) might mean that this time it may not be true...
84,31% counted, CpM 38 votes more than PP

Who are CpM?

Local center-left party that gets significant support from Melilla's Muslim population.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1190 on: November 10, 2019, 05:17:29 PM »

Albert Rivera is speaking. He will call an extraordinary party convention, but he is not resigning...
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bigic
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« Reply #1191 on: November 10, 2019, 05:17:38 PM »

PP again leading in Melilla. 7933-7848
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Velasco
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« Reply #1192 on: November 10, 2019, 05:22:12 PM »

Inés Arrimadas is crying and the crowd cheers ¡Vamos Ciudadanos!

Albert Rivera will likeky continue as the leader of his Fanclub. Amazing
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El Betico
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« Reply #1193 on: November 10, 2019, 05:30:09 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 06:05:12 PM by El Betico »

If the CpM lead in Melilla, now at 200, holds...

...PSOE+UP+MP+PRC+BNG+Teruel+CpM+PNV+Bildu+Canarians: 176

A majority without relying on Catalans in this scenario, exists...can we imagine the Basques on the train with a Yes vote as an anti-Vox measure?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1194 on: November 10, 2019, 05:32:39 PM »

If the CpM lead in Melilla, now at 200, holds...

...PSOE+UP+MP+PRC+BNG+Teruel+CpM+PNV+Bildu: 176

A majority without relying on Catalans and Canarians, in this scenario, exists...can we imagine the Basques on the train with a Yes vote as an anti-Vox measure?

This govt, well this govt with less individual actors, was also an option back in April, it was technically the govt Sanchez and Podemos were  negotiating for. But there were problems with Bildu, and of course Podemos vs PSOE was an issue.
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Skye
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« Reply #1195 on: November 10, 2019, 05:33:57 PM »

That Melilla result is bouncing back and forth lol.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1196 on: November 10, 2019, 05:36:38 PM »

PP seems open in talking to PSOE, according to Casado speech.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1197 on: November 10, 2019, 05:39:15 PM »

Now PP back in the lead...47 votes at 92,33% of the count...E-V-E-R-Y V-O-T-E C-O-U-N-T-S.

Back CpM in the lead, by 254 votes...
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El Betico
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« Reply #1198 on: November 10, 2019, 05:50:25 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 06:04:21 PM by El Betico »

If the CpM lead in Melilla, now at 200, holds...

...PSOE+UP+MP+PRC+BNG+Teruel+CpM+PNV+Bildu: 176

A majority without relying on Catalans in this scenario, exists...can we imagine the Basques on the train with a Yes vote as an anti-Vox measure?

This govt, well this govt with less individual actors, was also an option back in April, it was technically the govt Sanchez and Podemos were  negotiating for. But there were problems with Bildu, and of course Podemos vs PSOE was an issue.

Yes, but I have a bit of hope based on changing circumstances...not retaining the 176 without ERC was my fear, almost a certainty...if CpM holds, I was wrong, and I will have a (for now) small sense of relief.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1199 on: November 10, 2019, 05:52:20 PM »

Interestingly, CpM looks to have gotten most of their votes from C's, though you never know with such a small community. But since turnout dropped, it's hard to imagine a massive trade of new voters and previous voters. Perhaps C's voters ended up repaying CpM for the local govt?
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