Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195136 times)
Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1100 on: November 10, 2019, 12:46:12 PM »

The localized 6pm turnout reports paint a pretty murky picture.

Catalonia: 59.8% (down 4.4%)
Barcelona: 60.4% (down 4.4%)
Extremadura: 54.4% (down 5.9%)
Andalucia: 54.9% (down 2.3%)
Seville: 57.6% (down 1.5%)
Granada 55.3% (down 3.8%)
Castilla La Mancha: 57.5% (down 4.9%)
Valencia Community: 60% (down 1.6%)
Valencia: 61.3% (down 0.3%)
Murcia region: 57.9% (down 3.9%)
Castilla y Leon: 56.7% (down 5.2%)
Melilla: 39% (down 5.4%)
Alcocorn (PSOE suburb of Madrid): 63.9% (down 2.9%)
Torrejon de Ardoz (PP suburb of Madrid): 60.9% (down 4%)
Salamanca (PP stronghold of Madrid): 63% (down 2.8%)
Fuenlabrada (PSOE Madrid suburb): 61.3% (down 4%)

Catalonia is perhaps a surprise, and a problem for the left.  But a lot of right wing strongholds are simply not showing up at the same rates at left wing strongholds (except for Extremadura, I guess).
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jaichind
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« Reply #1101 on: November 10, 2019, 12:49:14 PM »

Turnout at 6pm at 56.79%. A five point drop from April. Not bad, frankly, given the voter apathy that could be expected.

Too bad.  Was hoping for a lower turnout to lead to a Right wing surge.  It seems we will get stalemate again. 
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Mike88
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« Reply #1102 on: November 10, 2019, 12:51:11 PM »



Only Álava (Basque Country) and Jaén (Andaluzia), have increased turnout rates compared with April.

The rest has lower turnout that ranges from 0% and -7%.

In terms of communities, 8 have turnout decreases above 5%:

Balears
Canarias
Melilla City
Extremadura
Galicia
Castilla y León
Principado de Asturias
Ceuta City

3 communities have turnout decreases below 3%:

Basque Country
Andaluzia
Valencia
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Skye
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« Reply #1103 on: November 10, 2019, 12:55:15 PM »

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?

Yep. 8PM Madrid Time, 7PM London/Lisbon time.

Worth noting polls close at 9PM Madrid time in the Canary Islands (8PM local time), so early counts will only have 335/350 MPs

El País and ABC are reporting that results will start to come at 9 pm. Who do I believe D:
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Mike88
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« Reply #1104 on: November 10, 2019, 12:55:32 PM »

Turnout at 6pm at 56.79%. A five point drop from April. Not bad, frankly, given the voter apathy that could be expected.

Too bad.  Was hoping for a lower turnout to lead to a Right wing surge.  It seems we will get stalemate again. 

Yeah, like Walmart_shopper said, some right-wing areas aren't showing up, but some left-wing areas have not very good showings also. Neither side seems very motivated.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1105 on: November 10, 2019, 12:59:11 PM »



Only Álava (Basque Country) and Jaén (Andaluzia), have increased turnout rates compared with April.

The rest has lower turnout that ranges from 0% and -7%.

In terms of communities, 8 have turnout decreases above 5%:

Balears
Canarias
Melilla City
Extremadura
Galicia
Castilla y León
Principado de Asturias
Ceuta City

3 communities have turnout decreases below 3%:

Basque Country
Andaluzia
Valencia

While this doesn't quite portend a big win for the left, it appears that the idea that a fourth election would deter left wing voters from turning out has simply proven false.  There is a generalized pattern of right wing strongholds showing up at considerably lower rates versus April compared with left wing provinces.  It is also worth noting that some of the places where Vox was strongest are especially weak so far today.  Madrid's turnout is not terrible, though, but there it is hardest to figure out what's happening because there is so much fluidity between Vox, PP and, and Cs.  PP could be cannibalizing the large right wing vote in Madrid, or Vox could be surging.  It's hard to know.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1106 on: November 10, 2019, 12:59:49 PM »

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?

Yep. 8PM Madrid Time, 7PM London/Lisbon time.

Worth noting polls close at 9PM Madrid time in the Canary Islands (8PM local time), so early counts will only have 335/350 MPs

El País and ABC are reporting that results will start to come at 9 pm. Who do I believe D:

I believe exit polls, or predictions to be more exact, are allowed at 8PM but there's a blackout until the Canary Islands polls close. But I'm not sure.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1107 on: November 10, 2019, 01:09:55 PM »

While this doesn't quite portend a big win for the left, it appears that the idea that a fourth election would deter left wing voters from turning out has simply proven false.  There is a generalized pattern of right wing strongholds showing up at considerably lower rates versus April compared with left wing provinces.  It is also worth noting that some of the places where Vox was strongest are especially weak so far today.  Madrid's turnout is not terrible, though, but there it is hardest to figure out what's happening because there is so much fluidity between Vox, PP and, and Cs.  PP could be cannibalizing the large right wing vote in Madrid, or Vox could be surging.  It's hard to know.

The turnout rate could mean a lot and, at the same time, absolutely nothing. The areas with very low turnout seem to be areas where weather today is very bad with strong winds and heavy rain. All points to a continuation of the deadlock, unfortunately.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1108 on: November 10, 2019, 01:24:57 PM »

While this doesn't quite portend a big win for the left, it appears that the idea that a fourth election would deter left wing voters from turning out has simply proven false.  There is a generalized pattern of right wing strongholds showing up at considerably lower rates versus April compared with left wing provinces.  It is also worth noting that some of the places where Vox was strongest are especially weak so far today.  Madrid's turnout is not terrible, though, but there it is hardest to figure out what's happening because there is so much fluidity between Vox, PP and, and Cs.  PP could be cannibalizing the large right wing vote in Madrid, or Vox could be surging.  It's hard to know.

The turnout rate could mean a lot and, at the same time, absolutely nothing. The areas with very low turnout seem to be areas where weather today is very bad with strong winds and heavy rain. All points to a continuation of the deadlock, unfortunately.

A continued stalemate was predictable. I'm more interested to know if the turnout decrease in rightwing strongholds is affecting the Cs vote. I take for granted that the Vox people will show up, but I cross fingers and hope polls were overestimating the Abascal party. Turnout figures don't look as bad as they could be, given voter fatigue
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Velasco
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« Reply #1109 on: November 10, 2019, 01:35:50 PM »

Repost: largest bloc by province

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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1110 on: November 10, 2019, 01:41:19 PM »

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?

Yep. 8PM Madrid Time, 7PM London/Lisbon time.

Worth noting polls close at 9PM Madrid time in the Canary Islands (8PM local time), so early counts will only have 335/350 MPs

El País and ABC are reporting that results will start to come at 9 pm. Who do I believe D:

I believe exit polls, or predictions to be more exact, are allowed at 8PM but there's a blackout until the Canary Islands polls close. But I'm not sure.

I believe there is no real blackout, but rather than between 8 and 9 PM barely any votes will be in. But I am also not sure
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1111 on: November 10, 2019, 01:45:35 PM »


I saw the long, gray blob on the left edge of the map and was confused about which bloc was strongest.

Sorry, Portugal.  I like really do like you more.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1112 on: November 10, 2019, 02:01:37 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 02:05:01 PM by Mike88 »



The deadlock continues...

In Catalonia, ERC and Junts are losing to CUP it seems.

Take these "polls" with extreme caution as they aren't election day polls, but rather trackings from the last few days.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1113 on: November 10, 2019, 02:02:53 PM »

Looks like Right wing bloc narrowly beats out Left wing bloc
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1114 on: November 10, 2019, 02:05:01 PM »




Surreal. The fifth election in April is going to be interesting.
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Skye
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« Reply #1115 on: November 10, 2019, 02:05:32 PM »

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jaichind
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« Reply #1116 on: November 10, 2019, 02:05:41 PM »

Exit poll smaller parties

Catalan pro-independence parties Esquerra Republicana seen having 13-14, Junts 6-7, CUP 3-4 seats
Basque nationalists PNV 6-7
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Mike88
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« Reply #1117 on: November 10, 2019, 02:08:16 PM »




Surreal. The fifth election in April is going to be interesting.

Yeah, this is becoming ridiculous. It was expected, but ridiculous still. Maybe the only way to settle this is to have a "jamón" (ham) eating contest, and the person who eats the most jamón wins. Cheesy
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1118 on: November 10, 2019, 02:08:25 PM »

EL  Pais

PSOE 119
PP 94
Vox 42
Podemeos 36
C's 19
ERC 15
MP 3
Other 22

158 to 155 pure left v right
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1119 on: November 10, 2019, 02:08:37 PM »

Looks like Right wing bloc narrowly beats out Left wing bloc

Without 176 seats the right wing bloc isn't "beating" anyone. But you're also right, and Sanchez will now be pm over a divided government in which his bloc isn't even the largest.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1120 on: November 10, 2019, 02:09:07 PM »

Looks like Más País did some damage to the PSOE and UP in terms of seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1121 on: November 10, 2019, 02:10:18 PM »

EL  Pais

PSOE 119
PP 94
Vox 42
Podemeos 36
C's 19
ERC 15
MP 3
Other 22

158 to 155 pure left v right

You have to add in 2 seats to the Right for NA+
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1122 on: November 10, 2019, 02:11:40 PM »

EL  Pais

PSOE 119
PP 94
Vox 42
Podemeos 36
C's 19
ERC 15
MP 3
Other 22

158 to 155 pure left v right

You have to add in 2 seats to the Right for NA+

Forgot about them. So it's essentially tied. Wonderful.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1123 on: November 10, 2019, 02:14:28 PM »

Whatever the actual results end up being, the depressed turnout is a major defeat for Spanish democracy. This is what you get when politicians are would rather play dumb games to outmaneuver one another than sit down and actually try to govern together.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1124 on: November 10, 2019, 02:15:23 PM »


Forgot about them. So it's essentially tied. Wonderful.

As pointed out by others it really does not matter as unless the exit polls are way off we are looking at more stalemate.
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