Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:57:26 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 39 40 41 42 43 [44] 45 46 47 48 49 ... 89
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195171 times)
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,220
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1075 on: November 09, 2019, 01:24:53 PM »

And in Portugal, some parties are making the same mistake other have made towards far-right parties: ignoring them and forbidding political initiatives in Parliament. CDS colapse and the PSD divisions aren't helping either, and Chega, in one pol,l is almost at 3%. We'll see how this unfolds, but the picture isn't good. Hope I'm wrong.

Unless there's some kind of huge swing for either the PSOE or PP, the deadlock will continue. Low turnout, if it happens could help the right and hurt the left, but, it would still be hopeless as the right wouldn't achieve a majority. The same for the left. ERC in Catalonia seems to be at odds with Puigdemont' party and allies, as, at least that's what I see, they seem to be creating a more moderate tone towards the Catalonia issue. If ERC sweeps Catalonia and Junts colapses, could ERC extend their hand to Sanchéz by proposing a more moderate position towards Catalonia? Or will PSOE more moderate wings block it?
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1076 on: November 09, 2019, 02:55:19 PM »

Unless there's some kind of huge swing for either the PSOE or PP, the deadlock will continue. Low turnout, if it happens could help the right and hurt the left, but, it would still be hopeless as the right wouldn't achieve a majority. The same for the left. ERC in Catalonia seems to be at odds with Puigdemont' party and allies, as, at least that's what I see, they seem to be creating a more moderate tone towards the Catalonia issue. If ERC sweeps Catalonia and Junts colapses, could ERC extend their hand to Sanchéz by proposing a more moderate position towards Catalonia? Or will PSOE more moderate wings block it?

ERC is adopting a more pragmatic stance on paper, but don't forget that the Republican Left voted against the budget draft negotiated between PSOE and UP. Deals between ERC and the Spanish Left were very difficult in previous months, due to the obvious differences on the national question and the pressure from within the independence movement (Catalan nationalist leaders are always afraid of being called traitors by their radicals).  Now the situation is worse with the ruling of the Supreme Court. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras has been sentenced to 13 years in prison. How do you expect that ERC is committing to break yhe deadlock, given that terrible circumstance?
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1077 on: November 09, 2019, 03:40:59 PM »

So, uh, you guys have any predictions?
Logged
P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,072
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -4.96


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1078 on: November 09, 2019, 09:53:12 PM »

Logged
Babeuf
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 500


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1079 on: November 09, 2019, 10:07:33 PM »

This didn't need to happen. Sanchez's arrogance will be (mostly) to blame if the right comes to power.
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1080 on: November 10, 2019, 05:27:20 AM »

So, uh, you guys have any predictions?

I don't want to make predictions. All the possible scenarios point to a fragmented parliament .There is a need for dialogue and big State Agreements, but the parties are mired in their petty disputes and their leaders are short-sighted. The far right is on the rise, fuelled by the fires in the streets of Barcelona.  I fear the ghost of Franco, so I'll go to vote against that menace and against the ones who brought us this unnecessary election in fatal coincidence with the ruling of the Supreme Court. This means that I'll vote tactically for UP, which has a seat at stake in my province with Vox, Cs and the corrupt CC. I would have preferred MP, but anyway
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1081 on: November 10, 2019, 05:34:45 AM »

On a sidenote, because absentee voting from abroad sucks in Spain I have been de-facto disenfranchised, so I am not voting in this election.

I guess I have a reason to support a third election now Tongue
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1082 on: November 10, 2019, 05:46:58 AM »

On a sidenote, because absentee voting from abroad sucks in Spain I have been de-facto disenfranchised, so I am not voting in this election.

I guess I have a reason to support a third election now Tongue

Wow that absolutely sucks. Why is that? I read something about the issue yesterday but it didn't explain it well.
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1083 on: November 10, 2019, 05:52:25 AM »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 05:57:32 AM by tack50 »

On a sidenote, because absentee voting from abroad sucks in Spain I have been de-facto disenfranchised, so I am not voting in this election.

I guess I have a reason to support a third election now Tongue

Wow that absolutely sucks. Why is that? I read something about the issue yesterday but it didn't explain it well.

Basically, I applied to vote from abroad by mail as a temporary resident abroad (ERTA vote; which is not the same as the CERA vote for permanent residents) but my ballots never arrived. Honestly I wish I could have just gone to my nearest embassy/consulate and vote there in person but that is apparently not allowed.

This article by El Pais explains the situation quite well in my opinion. Turnout among Spaniards abroad permanently was a whopping 5.6% last time.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/09/actualidad/1573326362_103978.html
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1084 on: November 10, 2019, 06:06:26 AM »

On a sidenote, because absentee voting from abroad sucks in Spain I have been de-facto disenfranchised, so I am not voting in this election.

I guess I have a reason to support a third election now Tongue

Wow that absolutely sucks. Why is that? I read something about the issue yesterday but it didn't explain it well.

Basically, I applied to vote from abroad by mail as a temporary resident abroad (ERTA vote; which is not the same as the CERA vote for permanent residents) but my ballots never arrived. Honestly I wish I could have just gone to my nearest embassy/consulate and vote there in person but that is apparently not allowed.

This article by El Pais explains the situation quite well in my opinion. Turnout among Spaniards abroad permanently was a whopping 5.6% last time.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/09/actualidad/1573326362_103978.html

Thanks, I was also reading about it in another article.

At first glance, the system looks draconian to me.

It's a bit similar for Venezuelan migrants, though the main reason it's difficult to vote is because expats have to reside legally in the country they currently live in, plus register in the embassies/consulates which can be a hassle since they're manned by people who reaaally don't want people abroad to vote. though my country doesn't have competitive elections anymore so who care
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1085 on: November 10, 2019, 06:30:17 AM »

So, uh, you guys have any predictions?

A fifth election. Because porque no?
Logged
skbl17
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 421
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1086 on: November 10, 2019, 07:04:56 AM »

Here are the official results pages from the Ministry of the Interior. Obviously there's nothing yet as polls are still open, but we should get the first indication of turnout soon (at 14:00 CET).

Congress of Deputies
Senate

Turnout figures
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,220
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1087 on: November 10, 2019, 08:02:30 AM »

Unless there's some kind of huge swing for either the PSOE or PP, the deadlock will continue. Low turnout, if it happens could help the right and hurt the left, but, it would still be hopeless as the right wouldn't achieve a majority. The same for the left. ERC in Catalonia seems to be at odds with Puigdemont' party and allies, as, at least that's what I see, they seem to be creating a more moderate tone towards the Catalonia issue. If ERC sweeps Catalonia and Junts colapses, could ERC extend their hand to Sanchéz by proposing a more moderate position towards Catalonia? Or will PSOE more moderate wings block it?
ERC is adopting a more pragmatic stance on paper, but don't forget that the Republican Left voted against the budget draft negotiated between PSOE and UP. Deals between ERC and the Spanish Left were very difficult in previous months, due to the obvious differences on the national question and the pressure from within the independence movement (Catalan nationalist leaders are always afraid of being called traitors by their radicals).  Now the situation is worse with the ruling of the Supreme Court. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras has been sentenced to 13 years in prison. How do you expect that ERC is committing to break yhe deadlock, given that terrible circumstance?

My idea was that the divide in the independence movement, between Torra/Puigdemont and ERC, would make ERC as the party that doesn't promote violence and hate in Catalan and Spanish societies. Maybe this is just wishful thinking, and of course the ruling didn't helped ease any tensions, not to mention Sanchéz "let it burn because they will get tired" strategy backfired completely. But, you're right, the conditions for a deal are really bleak, with no side caving in. I can also say that the feeling of annoyance is the same across the border, here in Portugal we just cannot stand any more Spanish instability news, and I can image the same feeling in Spain. Let's see how this unfolds.
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,220
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1088 on: November 10, 2019, 08:12:58 AM »

Turnout figures at 14:00h:

Nov 2019 - 37.9% (-3.6)
Apr 2019 - 41.5%
2016 - 36.9%
2015 - 37.0%
2011 - 37.9%
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1089 on: November 10, 2019, 08:22:18 AM »

Turnout figures at 14:00h:

Nov 2019 - 37.9% (-3.6)
Apr 2019 - 41.5%
2016 - 36.9%
2015 - 37.0%
2011 - 37.9%

Could be a lot worse, honestly. Probably a sign that nothing too groundbreaking will happen. The right would want turnout in the low 30s to pull off a shocker, I would imagine.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1090 on: November 10, 2019, 08:25:15 AM »

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,220
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1091 on: November 10, 2019, 08:26:38 AM »

Turnout figures at 14:00h:

Nov 2019 - 37.9% (-3.6)
Apr 2019 - 41.5%
2016 - 36.9%
2015 - 37.0%
2011 - 37.9%

Could be a lot worse, honestly. Probably a sign that nothing too groundbreaking will happen. The right would want turnout in the low 30s to pull off a shocker, I would imagine.
We'll have to wait until 18:00h to know the real trend. In 2016, by that time only 51% had cast a ballot and that election ended up being quite good for the right.
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,220
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1092 on: November 10, 2019, 08:27:39 AM »

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?

Yep. 8PM Madrid Time, 7PM London/Lisbon time.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1093 on: November 10, 2019, 08:34:33 AM »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 09:04:53 AM by Walmart_shopper »

Turnout figures at 14:00h:

Nov 2019 - 37.9% (-3.6)
Apr 2019 - 41.5%
2016 - 36.9%
2015 - 37.0%
2011 - 37.9%

Could be a lot worse, honestly. Probably a sign that nothing too groundbreaking will happen. The right would want turnout in the low 30s to pull off a shocker, I would imagine.
We'll have to wait until 18:00h to know the real trend. In 2016, by that time only 51% had cast a ballot and that election ended up being quite good for the right.
Do you have the 6pm numbers for the last four elections?
Logged
Mike88
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,220
Portugal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1094 on: November 10, 2019, 09:01:54 AM »

Turnout figures at 14:00h:

Nov 2019 - 37.9% (-3.6)
Apr 2019 - 41.5%
2016 - 36.9%
2015 - 37.0%
2011 - 37.9%

Could be a lot worse, honestly. Probably a sign that nothing too groundbreaking will happen. The right would want turnout in the low 30s to pull off a shocker, I would imagine.
We'll have to wait until 18:00h to know the real trend. In 2016, by that time only 51% had cast a ballot and that election ended up being quite good for the right.
Do you have the 6pm numbers for the last four elections!

Apr 2019 - 60.7%
2016 - 51.2%
2015 - 58.4%
2011 - 57.7%
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1095 on: November 10, 2019, 09:02:04 AM »

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?

Yep. 8PM Madrid Time, 7PM London/Lisbon time.

Worth noting polls close at 9PM Madrid time in the Canary Islands (8PM local time), so early counts will only have 335/350 MPs
Logged
P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,072
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -4.96


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1096 on: November 10, 2019, 09:08:50 AM »

All this because Iglesias was greedy and Iñigo couldn't wait just five more minutes to start a new party. Smh
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,724


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1097 on: November 10, 2019, 09:15:06 AM »

So I'm not going to make a prediction but I will engage in a bit of metagaming here. Lets say PSOE+Podemos+MP and PP+VOX+C's are both around 150, but the  left is a bit higher. This is what polls say right now, and unless there is a massive swing we will end up both near parity - just like back in 2015/16. There are problems with both of these govts, and their ability to reach the 176 threshold is tenuous. The right needs to probably hit 170ish combined to make such a govt work because VOX is a poison pill. The left would need to recruit some Catalan support which probably makes it also impossible, and that's ignoring the vendettas between Iglesias and Sanchez.

So now we are left with cross-block govts, and PSOE should get the most seats overall so they will get the nod. Both options are PSOE minority govts with abstention: PSOE+Podemos+C's, and PSOE+PP. The latter would be solely to put to rest the govt crisis, even though it opens a bigger door for Vox. the former would only work if C's is committed to their Macronist triangulation...which is possible since the Centralist/Castilian Nats self-jettisoned for Vox. C's is dying and maybe such a move allows then to survive and carve out a centrist niche...but C's agreeing to support the same Govt as Podemos is presently unthinkable, so PSOE+PP is therefore the most likely. That's where it stands right now, and it's all very sad because PSOE traded in it's beautiful results from April for this indecision purely because of egos.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1098 on: November 10, 2019, 12:04:14 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 12:11:16 PM by Walmart_shopper »

Turnout at 6pm at 56.79%. A five point drop from April. Not bad, frankly, given the voter apathy that could be expected.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1099 on: November 10, 2019, 12:13:59 PM »

That doesn't sound half bad actually, but what do I know.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 39 40 41 42 43 [44] 45 46 47 48 49 ... 89  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.063 seconds with 11 queries.