Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195068 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #975 on: September 28, 2019, 04:31:14 AM »
« edited: September 28, 2019, 07:32:23 AM by Velasco »

Judge accuses separatists of belonging to a new terrorist group

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/27/inenglish/1569568870_128248.html

Quote
even of the nine Catalan separatists arrested on Monday on suspicion of planning acts of violence have been placed in pre-trial custody without bail. Judge Manuel García-Castellón, of Spain’s High Court, the Audiencia Nacional, made the decision on Thursday, arguing that the individuals belonged to a violent faction of the Committees to Defend the Republic (CDR), a network of grassroots activists who have made headlines in recent years through public acts of protest in support of the Catalan independence movement.

In his writ, García-Castellón described this faction, dubbed the Technical Response Team (ERT), as an “organization with a hierarchical structure, that aims to instate a Catalan republic via any means, even violent ones,” according to judicial sources. “The ERT is an organization with sufficient capacity to carry out tactics and operations with a high level of professionalism,” the court statement read.  

The arrested separatists planned to collapse communications and had images of national police stations in their cellphones.

Meanwhile the Parliament of Catalonia passed a motion for resolution concerning legitimization of disobedience, amnesty and a petition for the withdrawal of the Guardia Civil. It's the game of rhetoric statements the separatist government of Catalonia uses to play. The Spanish government will challenge the motion before the Constitutional Court through the State Attorney, but spokeswoman Isabel García Celáa made clear there's no reason to implement article 155 (direct rule). The priority of Sánchez is to deescalate tension and confrontation. as well the perceived feedback between separatist parties and the Spanish Right which pursue escalation for electoral purposes. Regarding the arrested separatists, Catalan premier Quim Torra refuses to condemn violence and claims police and legal action is an attempt to criminalize the independence movement. The motion legitimizing disobedience was sponsored by the CUP and backed by JxCAT and ERC; PSC, Cat Comú-Podem and PP voted against; Cs deputies didn't vote. Cs deputy Carlos Carrizosa was expelled from the Catalan parliament in a very heated session.

In other news, the Errejón party Más País will run in coalition with the environmentalist Equo in several provinces. Presumably Inés Sabanés will be placed second or third in the Madrid list. Equo founder Juan López de Uralde leaves the party. Likewise Más País and CHA (centre-left regionalist) sealed an agreement to run together for Zaragoza. The Podemos leadership in the region of Murcia, aligned with the Errejón faction, resigns to join Más País. Former leader Oscar Urralburu will also resign his seat in regional assembly and likely will head the Más País ticket in Murcia. Errejón has failed to reach an agreement with new Canaries (NC and CC are negotiating a joint ticket in las Palmas) and is facing serious problems to find allies in Barcelona, which is a key constituency.

EDIT: In an unprecedented move, the CUP will contest the Spanish general elections. A splinter of the far-left Catalan separatist group contested the April 2019 elections under the "Republican Front" (Front Republicá) banner.

The time sharing agreement between NC and CC in Las Palmas province states that, in case they win a single seat, NC will hold 2 1/2 years and CC 1 1/2 years



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Velasco
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« Reply #976 on: September 29, 2019, 03:59:49 AM »
« Edited: September 29, 2019, 04:03:48 AM by Velasco »

Cs deputy Carlos Carrizosa was expelled from the Catalan parliament in a very heated session.

"Row breaks out in Catalan parliament over jailed terrorism suspects"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/27/inenglish/1569570501_922479.html

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A political debate inside the Catalan parliament descended into a tremendous row on Thursday evening over the recent arrests of radical separatists who are facing terrorism charges that include possession of bomb-making materials.

At the most heated session in recent years, separatist politicians led by regional premier Quim Torra began chanting “freedom,” alluding to the seven members of the Committees to Defend the Republic (CDR), a grassroots group that has carried out actions such as roadblocks to defend Catalan independence (...)

Soon after separatist lawmakers expressed support for the suspects, Carlos Carrizosa, a representative of the non-separatist party Ciudadanos (Citizens) was expelled from the chamber after repeatedly telling pro-independence parliamentarians that “we feel threatened by those who back terrorism.”

His fellow party members walked out with him, but they were not the first ones. Earlier, the four representatives of the anti-capitalist CUP party had left in protest over the judge’s decision to keep the seven CDR suspects in preventive custody.

To put it in a few words: even those supporting independence should admit premier Quim Torra is a public disgrace for Catalonia. The attitude of separatist lawmakers is regrettable, My opinion of the Cs representatives is very low, too. Sad.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #977 on: September 29, 2019, 04:36:48 PM »

EDIT: In an unprecedented move, the CUP will contest the Spanish general elections. A splinter of the far-left Catalan separatist group contested the April 2019 elections under the "Republican Front" (Front Republicá) banner.

The time sharing agreement between NC and CC in Las Palmas province states that, in case they win a single seat, NC will hold 2 1/2 years and CC 1 1/2 years


CUP finally running in a general election is definitely an interesting move I did not expect. In any case they are a lock for 1 seat in Barcelona considering secessionists are radicalizing and how close FR got in April. 2 seats is doable, but tough.

Also, wtf is wrong with NC? I thought they now had bad relations with CC? Even regarding nationalism, the 2 reaching a deal seems like a bad idea that neither CC's base nor NC's base will support. This is definitely an alliance that will make them lose votes. The deal is also horribly lopsided against NC. Even in 2011 when they ran together NC got the 1st MP for Las Palmas for 4 years.

If NC wanted allies they should have gone with Errejon's party like Compromís. That would have definitely made them competitive for a seat in Las Palmas.
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Velasco
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« Reply #978 on: September 29, 2019, 07:09:50 PM »

Also, wtf is wrong with NC? I thought they now had bad relations with CC? Even regarding nationalism, the 2 reaching a deal seems like a bad idea that neither CC's base nor NC's base will support. This is definitely an alliance that will make them lose votes. The deal is also horribly lopsided against NC. Even in 2011 when they ran together NC got the 1st MP for Las Palmas for 4 years.

If NC wanted allies they should have gone with Errejon's party like Compromís. That would have definitely made them competitive for a seat in Las Palmas.

I concur the deal with CC is a terrible idea. The president of the Gran Canaria Cabildo Antonio Morales and others are strongly opposed, but the criteria of the party leadership prevailed. Secretary for organization Carmelo Ramírez told to Canarias Ahora that he met with someone close to Errejón nine days ago. It was a secret and informal meeting days before Más País was launched and prior to a formal negotiation that never took place. The main obstacle was Pedro Quevedo. The Errejón envoy (a certain Pablo de Palacios) raised objections on him, because Quevedo voted for the Rajoy's budget that is still in force and Más País will campaign against it. On the other hand, the PSOE was not very interested in a deal with NC; the conditions offered by the socialists were worse for regionalists than the 2015 deal. Ramírez gives his version of the failed attempt with Más País in the article linked below

https://www.eldiario.es/canariasahora/politica/Carmelo-Ramirez-NC-Errejon-Presupuestos_0_947005743.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #979 on: September 30, 2019, 01:01:03 PM »
« Edited: October 02, 2019, 06:58:41 AM by Velasco »

The deadline to register electoral coalitions was today at 14:00 (CET)

Unsurprisingly the coalition "España Suma" proposed by PP leader Pablo Casado was rejected by the "preferential partner" Cs. Two regions with rightwing coalitions:

-Navarra: Navarra Suma (NA+) incorporating the Navarrese People's Union (UPN), PP and Cs

-Asturias: PP-Foro

The coalition Unidas Podemos (UP) incorporates Podemos, IU and two associated regional "confluences" (Spanish: confluencias)

-Catalonia: En Comú Podem (ECP) incorporates Podem, Barcelona en Comú (Ada Colau), the spoils of the now defunct ICV and other leftist/green organizations. Jaume Asens will be again the top candidate for Barcelona.

-Galicia: Galicia en Común is a coalition of the regional branches of Podemos and IU. Presumably Yolanda Díaz will be the candidate for A Coruña.

Former allies: leftwing nationalist Anova won't contest the general elections, while En Marea ruled out alliance with Más País and will run in coalition with Compromiso por Galicia (CxG)

-The leader of the Andalusian branch of Podemos, Teresa Rogríguez, proposed a "unity list" grouping Podemos, IU and the Errejón platform Más País under the Adelante Andalucía ("Forward Andalusia") banner. The offer was rejected: UP will contest all provinces and Más País will probably contest the largest constituencies (but not Cádiz, apparently)

Más País registered coaitions with Equo (previously in UP) to run 12 provinces. Additionally the Errejón platform sealed coalition agreements with two regionalist parties:

-Valencian Community: the coalition Més Compromís will run in the three provinces. Compromís is a coalition operating in the Valencian region that incorporates the Bloc Nacionalista Valencià, Iniciativa (Mónica Oltra) and Equo-Verds. In April 2019 Compromís ran in its own winning 1 seat for Valencia, while in 2015 Compromís ran in coalition with Podemos (IU was added in 2016) winning 4 seats. Regional and general elections were held simultaneously on April 28. Compromís got 16% of the vote in the last regional elections, but fell to just 6% in general elections as many voters switched to UP and PSOE. Compromís The terms of the agreement with Más País are advantageous for Compromís, which full autonomy to design the lists and within the future parliamentary group. The top candidate in Valencia province will be Joan Baldoví.

-Aragón: Más País and the regionalist Chunta Aragonsesista (CHA) will run in a joint ticket for Zaragoza (7 seats). The top candidate will be a former regionalist councilor called Camilo Asensio. CHA pressed unsuccessfully to replicate the alliance in Huesca ( 3 seats). In the province of Teruel Más País and CHA will support a citizens' platform called Teruel Existe. CHA made a coalition agreement with IU in 2011, but this time rejected UP due to a big hostility towards Pablo Echenique. The Podemos leader in Aragon Nacho Escartín asked unsuccessfully Iglesias to remove the man who was the chief negotiator in the fruitless talks to form a coalition government.

-Balearic Islands: Més per Mallorca repeats coalition with Més per Menorca and the regional branch of ERC

-Canary Islands: The leadership of centre-left regionalist New Canaries (NC) rejects a deal with Más País* and seals an agreement with centre-right regionalist Canarian Coalition (CC). The decision creates unrest among members of the NC leftist faction.

*The Errejón people gives a version of the failed attempt of negotiation with NC different from the statements of Carmelo Ramírez.
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Velasco
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« Reply #980 on: October 01, 2019, 07:39:38 PM »
« Edited: October 02, 2019, 07:09:03 AM by Velasco »

Second referendum anniversary: calls for mass civil disobedience

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/10/01/inenglish/1569940639_863443.html

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The Catalan regional government on Tuesday observed the second anniversary of the unauthorized independence referendum of October 1, 2017 with a public address that urged citizens to revive the spirit of the breakaway bid in order to advance toward a Catalan republic.

Standing inside the courtyard of the Palau de la Generalitat, the building that houses the regional executive, regional premier Quim Torra and his deputy Pere Aragonès read out a speech telling Catalan society to rekindle that spirit in order to address “the challenges of the future.”

Flanked by other high-ranking government officials, Torra and Aragonès pledged to “advance without any excuses toward the Catalan republic. We will do so the only way we know how: democratically and peacefully.”

Also on Tuesday, other independence leaders – representatives from parties Together for Catalunya (JxC), the Republican Catalan Left (ERC) and the far-left CUP, as well as civil societies ANC and Òmnium Cultural – read out a manifesto calling for a “massive response based on non-violent struggle and civil disobedience” to the upcoming ruling by the Supreme Court on the fate of 12 leaders who led the illegal breakaway attempt of 2017. The independence movement widely expects these leaders to be found guilty of rebellion, a crime that entails long prison terms.  

Barcelona local police estimates 18000 people in the demonstration commemorating the October 1 referendum, which is a very low attendance. Probably it's a sign of fatigue, but I doubt this implies a support for independence significantly lower. Pedro Sánchez, who is campaigning as the champion of moderation and stability, talked about article 155

Quote
Spain’s caretaker prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, made clear on Tuesday that the central government could once again suspend Catalonia’s regional powers under Article 155 of the Constitution, and that his administration has been studying the possibility of doing so (...)

Speaking to the Cadena SER radio network on Tuesday morning, Sánchez, of the Socialist Party (PSOE), said that there was no issue with the application of Article 155, despite the fact that parliament has been dissolved ahead of a fresh general election on November 10. “A caretaker government has greatly diminished powers, but [Article] 155 can be applied without problems, we have studied this and there would be no problems in terms of the Constitution or its legitimacy [...],” he said.

Meanwhile PP leader Pablo Casado is also is trying to cut a "moderate" image. Additionally Casado grew a beard this summer and everybody says he looks more mature, something like a younger version of Mariano Rajoy (and less ugly than Santiago Abascal). Even José María Aznar is blessing the "moderate" turn of the PP leader, according to El Mundo.The fact is that Aznar was the model of the "radical" Casado, who failed miserably in the April 2019 elections and some 'barons' (regional leaders) forced a more centrist turn after the disaster.  

Cs tables a no confidence motion against premier Quim Torra, motivated by the resolutions  adopted in the Parliament of Catalonia and the regional government's attitude towards the arrested separatists under investigation for terrorist activities. The motion is bound to fail, given that only Cs and PP will vote in favour. PSC spokeswoman Eva Granados said her party will abstain and everybody else will vote against. Inés Arrimadas was replaced as the Cs spokeswoman by a young deputy called Lorena Roldán.

Vox deputy for the Balearic Islands resigns membership and won't recontest her seat. Malena Contestí says that Vox is an "extremist movement" that agitates racism and homophobia, as well practices a "totalitarian proselitism". Contestí was originally member of a local conservative party Actúa Baleares that is allied to Vox in the islands.

Madrid mayor to schoolkids: "I'd rather donate to Notre-Dame than the Amazon"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/10/01/inenglish/1569922217_943120.html

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“If you could donate money, what would you donate it to, the Notre-Dame Cathedral or saving the Amazon?” That was the answer put to Madrid Mayor José Luis Martínez-Almeida during his appearance on Sunday in a regional TV show, where schoolchildren get to quiz celebrities about different topics.  

The kids look astounded in the video

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Velasco
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« Reply #981 on: October 01, 2019, 07:49:38 PM »

Average polling in El País

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #982 on: October 01, 2019, 08:43:53 PM »


It's hard to follow the vote transfers here for Mas Pais. I assume  it is likely something like:

-C's+VOX -> PP
-PP+C's -> PSOE
-PSOE+Podemos -> Mas .

Which I guss if allowed to continue benefits PSOE and PP the  most...?
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Velasco
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« Reply #983 on: October 02, 2019, 03:31:58 AM »
« Edited: October 02, 2019, 08:20:53 AM by Velasco »


It's hard to follow the vote transfers here for Mas Pais. I assume  it is likely something like:

-C's+VOX -> PP
-PP+C's -> PSOE
-PSOE+Podemos -> Mas .

Which I guess if allowed to continue benefits PSOE and PP the  most...?

According to the last Sondaxe poll, 21.5% of UP and 9.9% of PSOE voters would switch to Más País (another Sociométrica poll says 23% and 10%). Translated into raw vote figures that would mean Más País gets a similar vote figure from PSOE and UP. This contradicts vote transfer figures in Madrid regional elections: it's estimated 51% of Más Madrid voters came from UP and 22% from PSOE. It's too early to see a consolidated trend with a few polls with small sample sizes. We don't know yet in which provinces will compete Más País. The decision will be taken this week, as the deadline to register lists is on next Monday (October 7).

It's apparently clear that PP is in an upward trend, at the expense of Cs and Vox. On the other hand, the PSOE seems to be paying a price for the electoral repetition. Socialists were polling above 30% this summer, but now are falling to 29% and even 27%. Also, last polls show that UP resists better than expected; they seem to detect a strengthened loyalty of the voter base after the failed coalition attempts. Finally, the balance between the Left and the Right depends basically on turnout and that's very difficult to estimate.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #984 on: October 02, 2019, 06:16:53 PM »

Who could possibly have foreseen this might go wrong for the PSOE?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #985 on: October 02, 2019, 09:55:59 PM »

Who could possibly have foreseen this might go wrong for the PSOE?

Yeah, Sanchez showed the same hubris May did back in 2017, and this looks like it's backfiring on him as it did on her.
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Velasco
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« Reply #986 on: October 05, 2019, 03:05:14 AM »

The Spanish Right revives the ghosts of the Civil War. Madrid premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso talked about people "burning churches" when criticizing the exhumation of Franco's remains

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/10/04/inenglish/1570174251_124493.html

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Speaking inside the regional assembly on Thursday, the recently appointed premier accused the caretaker prime minister, Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE), of using Spain’s late dictator Francisco Franco for electoral purposes.

“Sánchez is again mired in a stalemate, and he wants Franco to pull him out of this mess,” said Díaz Ayuso, alluding to the repeat vote that will take place in November after Sánchez won the April election but failed to form a government due to lack of sufficient parliamentary support. It will be Spain’s fourth national election in under four years.

Díaz Ayuso argued that Sánchez’s plans to exhume Franco’s remains from the Valley of the Fallen monument – a signature project of the PSOE’s that has been delayed for years due to legal hurdles – is an attempt at attracting leftist voters. She also called it highly divisive, and resorted to Civil War imagery to suggest what could come next.

“What will it be next? [Taking down] the cross from the valley? The entire valley? The neighborhood churches? Will they burn like they did in 1936?” said Díaz Ayuso, a former journalist who took office in August on a message of “consensus and dialogue above permanent tension and conflict.”

Amazingly, deputy premier Ignacio Aguado (Cs) told later to the press that regional government is doing everything possible in order to prevent churches are burning in 2019. Díaz Ayuso statements were in reply to the Vox spokeswoman Rocío Monasterio, who accused Díaz Ayuso for remaining silent before the Historical Memory Law as well as being accomplice of Pedro Sánchez on the exhumation of Franco's remains.

Vox secretary general and spokesman in the Madrid City Hall went further while being interviewed in Spanish TV. Javier Ortega Smith claims that the young women belonging to the Socialist Youth executed by the Franco regime in 1939 known as Las Trece Rosas were vile torturers, rapers and killers. The level of atrocity and the absurdity of these statements is indescribable, considering that some of these young women summarily executed were minors

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Las_Trece_Rosas

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"Las Trece Rosas" (the Thirteen Roses) is the name given in Spain to a group of thirteen young women who were executed by a Francoist firing squad just after the conclusion of the Spanish Civil War. Their execution was part of a massive execution campaign known as the "saca de agosto", which included 43 young men (among them a fourteen-year-old).

The thirteen victims were: Carmen Barrero Aguado (age 24), Martina Barroso García (age 22), Blanca Brissac Vázquez (age 29), Pilar Bueno Ibáñez (age 27), Julia Conesa Conesa (age 19), Adelina García Casillas (age 19), Elena Gil Olaya (age 20), Virtudes González García (age 18), Ana López Gallego (age 21), Joaquina López Laffite (age 23), Dionisia Manzanero Salas (age 20), Victoria Muñoz García (age 19), and Luisa Rodríguez de la Fuente (age 18).[2] Seven of the women were under age - in Francoist Spain the age of majority was 21.   


Podemos co-founder Carolina Bescansa will be the Más País candidate for A Coruña (Galicia). Más País also hired three women associated to the Errejón faction in Podemos as candidates for Andalusian provinces: Esperanza Gómez (Sevilla), Carmen Lizárraga (Málaga) and Ana terrón (Granada). Esperanza Gómez is currently senator for Adelante Andalucía. She competed against Teresa Rodríguez for the Podemos leadership in Andalusia and was defeated. Más País is collecting signatures to run for Barcelona, as there's no coalition deal with Equo in this province and it's a necessary requirement for new parties collecting an amount equivalent to 0.1% of the census roll. The Errejón party will postpone the decision to run Barcelona until the last minute, but everything points Más País will compete while tries to minimize conflict with En Comú Podem and Ada Colau. Finally, the Más País ballot will have a picture of Errejón. The Podemos ballot in the 2014 EP election had a picture of Pablo Iglesias, while the Más Madrid ballot in the 2019 regional elections had a picture of Manuela Carmena and Ïñigo Errejón.
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Velasco
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« Reply #987 on: October 06, 2019, 10:22:29 AM »

The big news yesterday was the decision to to lift the veto on Pedro Sánchez made by Albert Rivera, unanimously approved by the Cs executive committee. Rivera proposed ten reforms with "social emphasis" for a big deal between "constitutionalist" parties, surprising again his ranks with this new swerve. Then the Cs leader made a long speech with references to the original rhetoric of the party, such as overcoming the divide between "reds" and "blues", the Holy Transition to Democracy, the Moncloa Pacts and so on. Rivera committed to call Pablo Casado on election night if the Right has the numbers, but also to call Pedro Sánchez and "talk about reforms". By themoment Cs rules out a coalition government with the socialists, but now oranges are open to facilitate the investiture of Pedro Sánchez in case there is an agreement on the proposed reforms. The latter are not "conditions", but "proposals open to agreement" and address a number of issues such as: education, healthcare system, pensions, fight against depopulation, tax cuts for families or suppression of 'privileges' for politicians. The umpteenth swerve of Rivera comes five weeks before the elections and with bad polling.

Cs new slogan España en Marcha ("Spain Underway") is apparently a Macron plagiarism, but unfortunately for Rivera "La España en Marcha" was the motto that grouped some far right and neo nazi parties to contest the EP 2014 elections.

Pedro Sánchez replied somewhat contemptuously to the Rivera offer: "we are not asking the Cs support, we just want it doesn't block". The PSOE strategy seems focused on catching Cs voters.  Sánchez is conveying moderation, stability and order. Also, it's remarkable the harsher tone of Sánchez towards Catalan separatists. After the failed attempts of dialogue with the regional government led by Quim Torra and the Colón Square rally, the PSOE exploded and Sánchez made a turn. He broke with the separatist parties and the budget was rejected by the latter, leading to the April elections. Now firmness against separatism is at the heart of the socialist campaign. I's important to remark, however, there are degrees of "firmness" that differentiate the parties. Cs is the party with the most radical stance demanding the implementation of a "hard 155" (direct rule); PP is in a "moderate" turn and just demands the immediate implementation of the national security law, in order that central government takes control of regional police (Mossos de Esquadra); PSOE says the government is monitoring the ac compliance with laws and won't hesitate to intervene in case it's necessary.

The court ruling on the separatist leaders will focus the campaign on Catalonia from mid October onward, as well there are other fronts open such as Brexit (EU summit Oct 17-18) and economic slowdown. Socialists expect to make electoral gains in Catalonia at the expense of Cs, while the PP will struggle to recover from the dismal result obtained April.

The PSOE's current slogan is Ahora, Gobierno. Ahora, España ("Now, Government. Now, Spain")

GESOP poll for El Periódico de Catalunya

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« Reply #988 on: October 06, 2019, 10:30:23 AM »

Assuming a status quo election where some seats get shuffled within the Right and Left blocs without changing the big puture, will UP and/or Más País back Pedro Sánchez  this time around?
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« Reply #989 on: October 07, 2019, 04:49:08 AM »

The left seems to be doing better in terms of %'s now that Más País is in. I wonder what do you all think about that. Like, why do you think that is, do you think their numbers will hold, etc.
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« Reply #990 on: October 07, 2019, 05:24:19 AM »

Ciudadanos will run on a joint list with Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) for the elections, just like in the EU elections.

Does anyone believe this will have any impact? In EU elections a Cs-UPyD pact made sense to some extent as UPyD still had an MEP to defend, but now? Centrist and anti-separatist UPyD had some good polling results from 2011 (when the got almost 5 %) to 2014 (when Cs started to rise), but back then talks for an electoral alliance were not successful, so major members of the party left it and after disastrous results in the 2015 regional and municipal elections, UPyD leader Rosa Diez (around whom the party was basically built), resigned and withdrew from politics, even leaving her party after a 0.6 % showing in the 2015 elections. In 2016, UPyD went on to decline to 0.2 %. And last time they did not even run.
So what is the matter of this pact (which comes five years too late) anyways?
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« Reply #991 on: October 07, 2019, 09:01:12 PM »
« Edited: October 08, 2019, 08:08:47 AM by Velasco »

.Changes of strategy: Cs now open to deals with the PSOE and PP focusing on economy

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/10/07/inenglish/1570432888_983235.html

Quote
As Spaniards gear up for a repeat national election following months of parliamentary stalemate, political parties are redesigning their campaign strategies – some very noticeably so.

Ciudadanos (Citizens), which started out as a liberal reform party but veered to the right ahead of the April 28 election, is now back where it was seven months ago. Party leader Albert Rivera on Saturday surprised supporters by announcing that he is lifting the “veto” on doing deals with the Socialist Party (PSOE) that he introduced in February of this year (...)

Meanwhile, Spain’s main conservative party is also making overtures to the PSOE ahead of November 10. Pablo Casado, the president of the Popular Party (PP), was in the northwestern region of Galicia on Sunday to send out a new message of moderation, following a strident campaign earlier this year during which he had called Pedro Sánchez irresponsible, incapable, disloyal, incompetent, mediocre, and a compulsive liar, among other epithets.

After losing 71 seats at that election, Casado is now avoiding highly charged political issues and focusing instead on the economy with a message that only the PP can save the country from an impending new crisis.
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« Reply #992 on: October 07, 2019, 09:07:25 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2019, 09:28:38 PM by Velasco »

Assuming a status quo election where some seats get shuffled within the Right and Left blocs without changing the big puture, will UP and/or Más País back Pedro Sánchez  this time around?

It's hard to tell, especially when the PSOE is turning to the centre and the attitude of PP and Cs is changing (read article in the post above). As I said in a previous post, Albert Rivera lifted his veto on Pedro Sánchez. PP leader Pablo Casado stated recently he would be more open to unlock the situation than the last time around. On the other hand, I don't think that Sánchez is willing to make a coalition agreement with UP and MP. I think it's unlikely that Pablo Iglesias relinquishes his demands in case he manages to resist and polls suggest he will.

The left seems to be doing better in terms of %'s now that Más País is in. I wonder what do you all think about that. Like, why do you think that is, do you think their numbers will hold, etc.

Polls predicted before April elections the Right would get a vote share higher than the Left. The actual result was a dead heat between the Left and the Right, with the former winning more seats due to a higher vote split in the latter. The surge of Más País means that the leftwing vote will be more splitted in the big constituencies, while it's up to see the Errejón party contributes to halt demobilization. Take polls and predictions with loads of salt.

Ciudadanos will run on a joint list with Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) for the elections, just like in the EU elections.

Does anyone believe this will have any impact? In EU elections a Cs-UPyD pact made sense to some extent as UPyD still had an MEP to defend, but now? Centrist and anti-separatist UPyD had some good polling results from 2011 (when the got almost 5 %) to 2014 (when Cs started to rise), but back then talks for an electoral alliance were not successful, so major members of the party left it and after disastrous results in the 2015 regional and municipal elections, UPyD leader Rosa Diez (around whom the party was basically built), resigned and withdrew from politics, even leaving her party after a 0.6 % showing in the 2015 elections. In 2016, UPyD went on to decline to 0.2 %. And last time they did not even run.
So what is the matter of this pact (which comes five years too late) anyways?

No meaningful impact but the mere symbolism. The alliance between Cs and UPyD may well be a sign that Cs is "returning to the origins": centrism, liberalism (centralist in the Spanish tradition), stance against corruption (regenerationism) and peripheral nationalism
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #993 on: October 14, 2019, 04:32:53 AM »

The ruling against the Catalan politicians in prison for the 2017 events has just been published. The ruling is:

Rebellion: Not Guilty
Sedition: Guilty
Public funds misuse: Guilty; but Rull, Forn, Vila, Mundó and Borràs found not guilty
Disobedience: Guilty

The jail times are as follows:

Oriol Junqueras (Deputy premier and regional minister of the economy): 13 years in prison
Jordi Turull (Government speaker): 12 years in prison
Raul Romeva (Regional minister of foreign affairs): 12 years in prison
Joaquim Forn (Regional minister of the interior): 10 years and 6 months in prison
Dolors Bassa (Regional minister of labour and social affairs): 12 years in prison
Josep Rull (Regional minister of territory and sustainability): 10 years and 6 months in prison
Carme Forcadell (Parliament speaker): 11 years and 6 months in prison

Jordi Sanchez (President of the "Catalan National Assembly" association): 9 years in prison
Jordi Cuixart (President of the "Òmnium Cultural" association): 9 years in prison

Santi Vila (Regional minister of business): 1 year and 8 months without holding public office
Carles Mundó (Regional minister of justice): 1 year and 8 months without holding public office
Meritxel Borràs (Regional minister of governance): 1 year and 8 months without holding public office

From here several options can happen:

-The guilty politicians can appeal to the Spanish Constitutional Court or claim their rights were infringed upon on Spanish courts. Both will be rejected. After that they can appeal to the European Human Rights Court on similar reasons which they probably will do.

-Pedro Sánchez (or whoever ends up as PM) could pardon the Catalan politicians. This is something that would be extremely controversial especially within PSOE, but it could theoretically happen. For what's worth, Felipe González eventually pardoned General Armada and others for the 1981 coup (but not the main culprit, Antonio Tejero)

-The Catalan politicians could be given penitentiary benefits in a very brief period of time. This decision is made by the Catalan bureaucracy. If given the "Open Regime" or "Third grade", they would be free during the weekend and during weekdays and would only be in prison to sleep Monday-Thursday. If given the "Regular Regime" or "Second Grade" it would be a standard jail sentence, where they spend most of their  time in prison and are only allowed to exit for weekend trips or some sort of work. This decision can be appealed.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #994 on: October 14, 2019, 12:46:03 PM »

This is insane.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #995 on: October 14, 2019, 01:59:23 PM »


Why? Whether one agrees with Catalan Independence as a principle or not, what they did and the way that they did it was clearly a violation of the law and the Constitution. The Spanish Constitutional Court made that very clear before they did it, and they still went ahead with it. I have no doubt that every Court in a Country with the rule of law would have judged the same as the Spanish Supreme Court just did.  
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #996 on: October 14, 2019, 02:16:02 PM »


Why? Whether one agrees with Catalan Independence as a principle or not, what they did and the way that they did it was clearly a violation of the law and the Constitution. The Spanish Constitutional Court made that very clear before they did it, and they still went ahead with it. I have no doubt that every Court in a Country with the rule of law would have judged the same as the Spanish Supreme Court just did. 

I don't even agree with Catalan Independence as a principle!

For crying out loud, we're talking about locking people up for more than a decade for holding a sham referendum that would have changed nothing even if it had been allowed. This is a comical level of overreaction (or it would be comical if actual people's lives hadn't been ruined by it). Libertarians love to talk on and on about "victimless crimes", but this IS the ultimate victimless crime. No tangible harm whatsoever was caused by the referendum itself - in fact, most of the harm came, again, from the Spanish state's paranoid attempts to stop the referendum. This is exactly the kind of repressive escalation that's likely to drive more Catalans toward nationalism, and break the country apart.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #997 on: October 14, 2019, 02:32:39 PM »

For crying out loud, we're talking about locking people up for more than a decade for holding a sham referendum that would have changed nothing even if it had been allowed. This is a comical level of overreaction (or it would be comical if actual people's lives hadn't been ruined by it). Libertarians love to talk on and on about "victimless crimes", but this IS the ultimate victimless crime. No tangible harm whatsoever was caused by the referendum itself - in fact, most of the harm came, again, from the Spanish state's paranoid attempts to stop the referendum. This is exactly the kind of repressive escalation that's likely to drive more Catalans toward nationalism, and break the country apart.

No person was harmed directly - I agree - but the Rechtsstaat was. If Politicians are allowed to violate the Constitution so brazenly and get away with it - whats to stop others from abusing their powers? To take a example from the United States - noone was directly harmed when Trump conspired with a foreign state - and noone was directly harmed when the Polish Government started undermining the rule of law - but they should still be held criminally responsible. Otherwise one emboldens Politicians to erode of the rule of law and violate the constitution even further.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #998 on: October 14, 2019, 03:16:01 PM »

Yes, people were clearly and meaningfully harmed in both those instances. That's a ridiculous parallel.

A sham referendum is just a sham referendum. You enforce the rule of law by letting it happen and letting everyone see that it meant nothing.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #999 on: October 14, 2019, 06:22:49 PM »

I mean, how can anybody seriously believe such a ludicrously draconian response can end well?
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