Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #900 on: September 15, 2019, 05:55:26 AM »

What I can take from these analysis is that income is probably still the most important factor on determining whether you vote left or right in Spain; unlike in other western countries.

However other factors more popular elsewhere like age and education still play an important role as they determine which party within the left or the right you vote for. If you are a poor young urban person with college in Madrid you are probably a Podemos voter; while if you are a poor illiterate rural farmer in Andalucia you are a PSOE voter.

Same applies on the right, if you are a rich suburban young and educated person in Madrid, you are voting Cs, while if you are a rich old retiree with only primary school education in Castille you are probably voting PP; and if you are a middle aged voter in a town with a lot of immigrants in Murcia you are voting Vox.

So voters that lived under Franco’s rule actually vote conservative in much higher proportion than other voters?!


Well, let's see. Franco died 44 years ago, though in practice to even have a memory of him you would need to be in your 50s, and to have a meaningful amount of time you would be in your 60s.

So the answer is yes and no, but overall leaning towards yes. It's hard to say because of the weird way age crosstabs are done here (compared to other countries), but probably.

Old voters who lived the Franco era definitely are massive PP hacks. PP is almost majority retirees! However, Cs scores very low among them and even Vox is only average. Meanwhile PSOE does fairly well among old voters, albeit not as much as PP.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #901 on: September 15, 2019, 08:25:34 AM »
« Edited: September 15, 2019, 01:16:59 PM by parochial boy »

I know the crosstabs will be tiny. But that's a hell of an age gap between PNV and Bildu - not even sure you can put it down to the ETA ceasefire as they were still active until quite recently
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Velasco
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« Reply #902 on: September 15, 2019, 01:13:35 PM »

I know the crosstabs will be tiny. But that's a hell of an age gap between PNV and Bildu - not even sure you can put it down to the ETS ceasefire as they were still active until quite recently

The PNV is a broad tent nationalist party, ideologically moderate, champion of the Basque traditions and self-rule. Additionally it has the aura of the natural party of government. I'd say the PNV has all the conditions to be the preferred party of the old Basque Country folk. Probably it was the same before the ETA ceasefire.
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Velasco
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« Reply #903 on: September 15, 2019, 08:54:19 PM »
« Edited: September 15, 2019, 09:52:11 PM by Velasco »

The consultation round of the king with the different parties starts on Monday. Consultations follow an increasing order, from the smallest party to the largest. ERC and Bildu won't participate due to their republican and separatist character, but I think a JxCAT representative will meet with Felipe VI. The attitude of peripheral nationalist parties is allowing the investiture of Pedro Sánchez, either with affirmative vote or abstention and with the exception of JxCAT that would vote against. PP and Cs remain in their opposition, while UP would abstain in an eventual investiture vote in case there is not a last minute agreement with the PSOE. The odds are not good. Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias will meet the king on Tuesday.

A couple of days ago, Pedro Sánchez rejected a last offer for a "trial coalition government" made by Pablo Iglesias (it sounded to me an unnecessary humiliation, tbh).

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/13/inenglish/1568368550_238353.html

Quote
    Spain’s acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has rejected the latest offer made by the leftist group Unidas Podemos in a bid to reach a governing deal that would prevent a repeat general election in November.

In their first telephone conversation in a month-and-a-half, Podemos chief Pablo Iglesias and the leader of the Socialist Party (PSOE) talked for 10 minutes about the possibility of a “trial coalition” between both political forces (...)

Iglesias offered to stay together until mid-2020, after which the PSOE could end the relationship if it felt it was not working. Even then, Unidas Podemos would continue to support Sánchez throughout the rest of the political term.

But Sánchez, who is seeking to head a minority government with external support, rejected the offer

Meanwhile Galicia premier Alberto Núñez Feijóo suggested a grand coalition between PSOE and PP. “Sánchez should talk with the rest of the chamber and tell the PP: "I propose a governing coalition, a grand coalition in our country because I don’t trust Podemos", said Alberto Núñez Feijóo.

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Skye
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« Reply #904 on: September 16, 2019, 05:13:41 AM »



This looks like big news.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #905 on: September 16, 2019, 07:53:18 AM »



This looks like big news.

The sad thing is that Sanchez's ego might still prevail, he seems focused on punishing Podemos rather than forming a government right now.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #906 on: September 16, 2019, 08:03:19 AM »



This looks like big news.

Please translate if you're going to post tweets in Spanish
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Skye
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« Reply #907 on: September 16, 2019, 08:29:16 AM »


This looks like big news.

Please translate if you're going to post tweets in Spanish
Right, sorry.

"BREAKING NEWS: Albert Rivera offers the PP to abstain together to invest Pedro Sanchez in exchange of:
-Breaking off the (PSOE+GBai+Podemos) deal in Navarra.
-Negotiate article 155 for Catalonia.  They'd commit to pardon those imprisoned of the 'procés'.
-An economic program not to raise taxes.

(That's the best I could do).
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #908 on: September 16, 2019, 08:43:20 AM »

PSOE has already replied to Cs' offer. They claim that Cs should abstain as they already fulfill the 3 conditions by Cs.

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/09/16/5d7f74a1fc6c8300768b45cc.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #909 on: September 16, 2019, 10:07:45 AM »
« Edited: September 16, 2019, 11:45:08 AM by Velasco »

"BREAKING NEWS: Albert Rivera offers the PP to abstain together to invest Pedro Sanchez in exchange of:
-Breaking off the (PSOE+GBai+Podemos) deal in Navarra.
-Negotiate article 155 for Catalonia.  They'd commit not to pardon those imprisoned of the 'procés'.
-An economic program not to raise taxes.

(That's the best I could do).

- Cs leader demands in first point that socialists break the deal with Geroa Bai (moderate Basque nationalist) and Podemos in Navarra. This region is located next to the Basque Country in northern Spain. Navarra is among the wealthiest Spanish regions, but it's also a messy place (politically and demographically). The north of the region is Basque speaking and has a strong Basque nationalist vote, while the southern part is Castilian speaking and the main parties sre rightwing regionalist UPN and PSOE. The largest force in regional elections was Navarra Suma (NA+), a coalition incorporating UPN, PP and Cs. However NA+ only won 20 of 50 seats (6 short of a majority) and it has no potential allies in the regional parliament. The alternative coalition led by the PSOE has only 23 seats, so the socialist candidate needed the abstention of 5 EH Bildu members to be elected premier in a second vote. EH Bildu is a leftwing separatist coalition of Basque parties that still carries the stigma of being 'the "heir of ETA", so the national "constitutionalist" parties have established a cordon sanitaire. Despite socialists rejected to negotiate anything with EH Bildu, the Spanish Right claims the abstention of the Bildu members was not for free and there must be some agreement under the table. Also, UPN has been always the champion of the Navarrese integrity against the region's annexation to the Basque Country envisioned by Basque nationalism. There is not a majority supporting the annexation and moderate nationalists are aware of that, so the issue is not on the table. In short, the Right demands that PSOE gives up the region in the name of some sacred interests.

- The second point refers to the article 155 of the Spanish Constitution, which allows central government to impose direct rule on regions when constitutional order is in danger. It was implemented when the Parliament of Catalonia made a proclamation of unilateral independence two years ago. Implementing 155 preventively for no good reason is likely unconstitutional, but that's what the Spanish Right demands. PP and Cs also demand to Sánchez a clear statement denying pardon to the  Catalan separatist leaders that currently are awaiting the rule of the Suoreme Court.

- The third point is commitment to tax cuts.

Pedro Sánchez replied there's no reason to oppose his investiture by PP and Cs, because the three conditions are met already. He claims there's no deal with Bildu in Navarra and the regional government is constitutionalist, also that central government watches for the constitutional order in Catalonia (and would implement 155 if necessary) and the PSOE platform incorporates tax cuts for lower and middle classes.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #910 on: September 16, 2019, 02:18:50 PM »

Hasn't PSOE program involved some tax hikes, but only on large banks and only on individuals making over 130,000 Euros?  While there may be issues with this making Spain less attractive for business, its not like there are that many voters who this will impact.  Will be interesting as my understanding is if Cs + Podemos abstain, then investiture happens.  However passing the budget is the trick and will probably have to rely on Podemos + regionalist parties so that maybe a reason Sanchez wants election so doesn't have to rely on regionalist parties to pass budgets.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #911 on: September 16, 2019, 02:32:24 PM »

About when would a new election take place?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #912 on: September 16, 2019, 02:42:48 PM »

About when would a new election take place?

November 10th.
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Velasco
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« Reply #913 on: September 16, 2019, 11:25:08 PM »

Hasn't PSOE program involved some tax hikes, but only on large banks and only on individuals making over 130,000 Euros?  While there may be issues with this making Spain less attractive for business, its not like there are that many voters who this will impact.  Will be interesting as my understanding is if Cs + Podemos abstain, then investiture happens.  However passing the budget is the trick and will probably have to rely on Podemos + regionalist parties so that maybe a reason Sanchez wants election so doesn't have to rely on regionalist parties to pass budgets.

Banks, companies and high income individuals enjoy tax benefits through vehicles like capital investment funds. Raising taxes on them is a socialdemocratic policy that pursues income redistribution through social policies. That's something popular among people left of the centre. Pedro Sánchez would like to strengthen PSOE, in order he doesn't have to rely on the Catalan separatist parties. Other regionalists like PNV or PRC are not a major problem.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #914 on: September 17, 2019, 02:09:56 AM »

Unless right wins a majority, how exactly would a stalemate be resolved after election as almost no chance PSOE wins a majority so would PSOE and podemos agree after or would same thing happen again?
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Velasco
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« Reply #915 on: September 17, 2019, 04:21:28 AM »

Unless right wins a majority, how exactly would a stalemate be resolved after election as almost no chance PSOE wins a majority so would PSOE and podemos agree after or would same thing happen again?

There is no clear answer for that.  Actually PSOE and UP have a lot of coincidences on social and economic policies, which allowed them to arrange a budget arrangement that ultimately failed due to the opposition of Catalan nationalists leading to the April elections. On the other hand, their differences on issues like the referendum in Catalonia are not insurmountable, as Pablo Iglesias snd his Catalan allies (En Comú Podem) stated they would follow the policy line of the major partner without giving up their principles. There's something called "negotiating the differences" that is a common practice in coalition agreements. Their problems are more related to the bad personal relationship between their leaders, as well it's obvious that Sánchez never wanted a coalition government and Iglesias made mistakes. Currently Spanish politics is driven by personality rather than ideology. There exists a problem of "hyper leadership". The new parties Podemos and Ciudadanos are basically vehicles and personality cults for Pablo Iglesias and Albert Rivera,  while Pedro Sánchez became the most powerful secretary general in PSOE's history after defeating Susana Diaz against all odds in primary elections. The relationship between Pedro Sánchez and Albert Rivera is even worse. Rivera sbandoned the centre and committed himself to become the leader of the Spanish Right, rejecting pressure from big entrepeneurs and Macron to approach PSOE. The business world and the European Commission don't like Podemos and would have approved a PSOE-Cs deal, while the ideologically flexible Sánchez wants a turn to the centre (preferably governing alone). Anyway the relationship with Rivera is non-existent and the 'offer' of the Cs leader is just a tactical move motivated by the bad polling and the need to create narrative.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #916 on: September 17, 2019, 06:17:45 AM »

Apparently the BBVA foundation made a study about the social and political attitudes of Spain and the 5 largest EU countries (France, Spain, Italy, UK and Germany). Here are some findings of the politics part of the study for Spain and for the average of the 5 countries. The study is extremely interesting regardless.

https://www.fbbva.es/noticias/los-europeos-confian-en-el-estado-y-en-sus-grupos-profesionales-e-instituciones-pero-no-en-los-politicos/

-Spain has the most self-identified left wing population of the 5 countries. 20% of Spaniards identify as far leftists (0-2) compared to 10% elsewhere. The average is also at 4.4/10 compared to 5/10 for Europe at large

-This gets amplified among young voters aged 18-24. A whopping 31% of them identify as far leftists while that number is only 8% in Europe. There is also a clear correlation with young people being left and old people being right in Spain (minus a spike for the left at age 55-64) while that correlation does not exist in Europe at-large.

-There is also a correlation with education, with higher educated people being more left wing. This correlation does also exist in Europe at-large though

-Interestingly, Spain has an slightly above average amoung of far rightists (8-10) as well: 11% compared to 10% for Europe at large.

-Democracy's performance in Spain is rated as bad (getting a 4.6/10), though that is still higher than elsewhere in Europe minus Germany. More interestingly, there is no correlation by education here in Spain, while everywhere else people with higher education think democracy is working better than those with low education

-Spain has the lowest approval rating for "traditional parties", tied with Germany at 55%

-When voting, Spanish people value ideology much higher than Europe at-large and the knowledge of party leaders lower than Europe at-large

-74% of Spanish people believe the state should guarantee a minimum and decent living standard. This is much higher than in the rest of Europe, with the average being at 51%

-Spanish people also think more than Europe at-large that it's the responsability of the state to "control business profits", "provide healthcare coverage to all citizens" or "control salaries", among other traditional left wing policies

-Spanish people support a more egalitarian income distribution much more than the rest of Europe. Income redistribution in favour of equality is above water 49-43 in Spain while it's down 29-64 elsewhere

-Regarding this point, while there is a correlation by education both in Spain and in the rest of Europe (with educated people supporting income redistribution less), the correlation is much stronger in the rest of Europe (in fact in Spain it's actually "middle educated" people who support that and not the lowest educated!)

-The EU has a much higher approval rating in Spain than in the rest of Europe, being at +48 approval compared to +25 approval in Europe at large
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Skye
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« Reply #917 on: September 17, 2019, 01:36:21 PM »

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/09/16/actualidad/1568614552_569307.html

Looks like we're heading for a new election, bois.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #918 on: September 17, 2019, 01:40:38 PM »

And unless turnout is low and right wins majority, what exactly would be accomplished by then.  Realize it will happen, but if no party bends after, same problem, so any ideas on whom might bend next time around as doubt people want a fifth election.  Seems like PSOE and Podemos are willing to gamble on this as right while not doing too well in polls now could win, especially if Cs and PP run joint candidates.
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Velasco
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« Reply #919 on: September 17, 2019, 02:11:17 PM »

It's happening
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mileslunn
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« Reply #920 on: September 17, 2019, 02:16:32 PM »


Could there be another election after this, or do you think if inconclusive again one party will bend to avoid another election.  At this point it seems only a PSOE majority (next to impossible) or right wing majority (possible but not most likely outcome) only way to allow investiture next time around.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #921 on: September 17, 2019, 03:30:43 PM »


Could there be another election after this, or do you think if inconclusive again one party will bend to avoid another election.  At this point it seems only a PSOE majority (next to impossible) or right wing majority (possible but not most likely outcome) only way to allow investiture next time around.

Well, there is another option: someone caves (whether it's PSOE, Cs, PP or Podemos).

In my opinion, the following scenarios are possible:

1) Right wing majority: The right forms a government. Whether that is PP-Cs with Vox outside support or a 3 way, I don't know, but it seems the right would be more responsible. However, I would personally love if the right was also unable to form a government and we went to infinite elections Tongue

2) JxCat as the key vote: This almost definitely guarantees a 3rd round of elections. The only possibility would be a PSOE government propped up by the centre-right, which probably is not happening. If Puigdemont's party ends up as the decisive vote, Spain goes to a third election.

3) Scenario similar to the current one: Probably the most likely scenario, albeit with some variations (PSOE+Cs probably won't have a majority again). Still, basically the entire country gets a big case of Deja Vu. Someone still needs to cave

4) PSOE+moderate nationalists/regionalists gets a majority: Unlike what is thought, PSOE does not technically need a majority to win. Assuming Podemos keeps abstaining after another election, just a small increase of PSOE and decrease of the right would be enough for a PSOE minority. Here's the scenario I'm describing, but with current numbers:

Yes: PSOE+PNV+Compromis+PRC (131)
Abstain: Podemos+ERC+Bildu+CC
No: PP+Cs+Vox+JxCat+NS (156)

So PSOE needs to basically gain around 13 seats or so, while at the same time the right loses just as many. PSOE getting into the low-mid 140 seats while Podemos and the nationalists hold is certainly concievable; just not particularly likely.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #922 on: September 17, 2019, 03:55:55 PM »

How likely is a right wing majority.  Polls don't show it, but with low turnout I've heard that tends to favour the right.  Also if right wins won't there be huge re-incriminations on both parties on the left why they blew this when there were so many opportunities to find a way out.  If a repeat of the status quo, I have a tough time not seeing at least one party caving.  My guess is between Cs, UP, and PSOE, whichever party loses most seats will have greatest interest in caving while any party who gains has none.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #923 on: September 17, 2019, 04:03:47 PM »

How likely is a right wing majority.  Polls don't show it, but with low turnout I've heard that tends to favour the right.  Also if right wins won't there be huge re-incriminations on both parties on the left why they blew this when there were so many opportunities to find a way out.  If a repeat of the status quo, I have a tough time not seeing at least one party caving.  My guess is between Cs, UP, and PSOE, whichever party loses most seats will have greatest interest in caving while any party who gains has none.

If the math I did a while back is accurate, a right wing majority becomes possible if turnout drops below 66% or so (coincidentally, also the level of turnout in 2016).

However that math made the assumption that no votes would change in the right (it's not impossible to see Cs drop and the electoral system ing them over) and that literally all right wing voters would turn out again, which is probaly unrealistic even if their turnout will hold much better.

Also, your guess is probably right. However it's worth noting that if polling is accurate Cs is the party that is likeliest to lose seats, yet if they lose seats a PSOE+Cs deal becomes unlikely.
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xelas81
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« Reply #924 on: September 17, 2019, 04:44:29 PM »


Could there be another election after this, or do you think if inconclusive again one party will bend to avoid another election.  At this point it seems only a PSOE majority (next to impossible) or right wing majority (possible but not most likely outcome) only way to allow investiture next time around.

Well, there is another option: someone caves (whether it's PSOE, Cs, PP or Podemos).

In my opinion, the following scenarios are possible:

1) Right wing majority: The right forms a government. Whether that is PP-Cs with Vox outside support or a 3 way, I don't know, but it seems the right would be more responsible. However, I would personally love if the right was also unable to form a government and we went to infinite elections Tongue

2) JxCat as the key vote: This almost definitely guarantees a 3rd round of elections. The only possibility would be a PSOE government propped up by the centre-right, which probably is not happening. If Puigdemont's party ends up as the decisive vote, Spain goes to a third election.

3) Scenario similar to the current one: Probably the most likely scenario, albeit with some variations (PSOE+Cs probably won't have a majority again). Still, basically the entire country gets a big case of Deja Vu. Someone still needs to cave

4) PSOE+moderate nationalists/regionalists gets a majority: Unlike what is thought, PSOE does not technically need a majority to win. Assuming Podemos keeps abstaining after another election, just a small increase of PSOE and decrease of the right would be enough for a PSOE minority. Here's the scenario I'm describing, but with current numbers:

Yes: PSOE+PNV+Compromis+PRC (131)
Abstain: Podemos+ERC+Bildu+CC
No: PP+Cs+Vox+JxCat+NS (156)

So PSOE needs to basically gain around 13 seats or so, while at the same time the right loses just as many. PSOE getting into the low-mid 140 seats while Podemos and the nationalists hold is certainly concievable; just not particularly likely.

Is there any possibility of getting JxCat to abstain?
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