Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

How likely do you think it is they manage to form something by September.  On program and most issues divide seems small and if an election is called and right wins, I suspect many on left will be really angry at blowing a golden opportunity for a progressive government.  Or will threat of an election but enough that one finally agrees.

The relationship between PSOE and UP is broken and it's going to be extremely difficult to restore. I'll summarize last developments in telegraphic style.

1) Deputy PM Carmen Calvo ruled out today the possibility of a coalition government. The last offer made to Podemos expired when Iglesias rejected it before the second investiture vote. Previously Pedro Sánchez said that socialists will reset and explore "other ways".

2) IU released a statement asking Podemos to reach a programmatic agreement with the PSOE, even without a coalition government. This reveals divisions within UP, with some coalition partners and factions criticizing the way Pablo Iglesias and his inner circle conducted negotiations.

3) The king will postpone the next round of talks, in order to give time to the parties.

Right now everything points to elections in November, but two months is a long time.

[jaichind]

Would not another election just produce a similar deadlock as today ?

[mileslunn]

Would not another election just produce a similar deadlock as today ?

Yup as no way PSOE gets a majority on its own.  Right  if turnout is low could win a plurality, but only CC and Navarre+ would support them so unless they fall just shy of 176 no government as no way Catalan nationalists will support an even less sympathetic coalition while other regionalists asides two mentioned are all on political left..  But since Spain is not used to fragmented legislatures unlike elsewhere in Europe it might take a few before parties change. Or voters being tired of elections might coalesce around one party on each side of spectrum thus returning more towards a two party system.

[Walmart_shopper]

Would not another election just produce a similar deadlock as today ?

Yeah, and it could even be even more deadlocked, where either Cs or PP would have to join the Socialists. And that clearly isn't happening. PSOE is polling better today than before, but mostly at the expense of Podemos. So the coalitional math is mostly unchanged. All of that is why people rightly would blame Sanchez and why I suspect letting hubris or ideology or stupidity or whatever get in the way of a September agreement would be sonething the entire left regrets should new elections happen.

[jaichind]

Why does not Sánchez  say something like: "If Podemos does not get on board with our conditions to save the country from instability PSOE will support a C government from the outside"

[Walmart_shopper]

Why does not Sánchez  say something like: "If Podemos does not get on board with our conditions to save the country from instability PSOE will support a C government from the outside"

I don't think he would remain PSOE leader for long saying things like that.

[Velasco]

Why does not Sánchez  say something like: "If Podemos does not get on board with our conditions to save the country from instability PSOE will support a C government from the outside"

I don't think he would remain PSOE leader for long saying things like that.

Oh yes, it's a fantastic idea and socialists should go for it. Let's give all the power to Albert Rivera, the leader of the third party in parliament whose strategy is keeping tension high with his bigoted attacks against "Sánchez and his gang". Definitely it'd be the wisest decision to make. "For the good of the country"

[Velasco]

Wondering what went wrong

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/26/inenglish/1564127930_233324.html

It all happened so fast that there are plenty of people still trying to understand it. Not even the main protagonists of Thursday’s events in Congress are completely clear on just how negotiations on issues that are by no means impossible to agree on could have ended so badly, with a desperate last-ditch offer from Pablo Iglesias voiced from the lectern itself in Spain’s lower house of parliament.

[windjammer]

Well,
Pablo Iglesias needs to be deposed. If there are new elections, I suggest Podemo will take the blame.

[jaichind]

Why does not Sánchez  say something like: "If Podemos does not get on board with our conditions to save the country from instability PSOE will support a C government from the outside"

I don't think he would remain PSOE leader for long saying things like that.

Oh yes, it's a fantastic idea and socialists should go for it. Let's give all the power to Albert Rivera, the leader of the third party in parliament whose strategy is keeping tension high with his bigoted attacks against "Sánchez and his gang". Definitely it'd be the wisest decision to make. "For the good of the country"

You obviously right on the political dynamics but it seems to me that Sanchez has to threaten an outcome that is even worse for  Podemos  than status quo.  Not sure what it should be.

[Velasco]

Why does not Sánchez  say something like: "If Podemos does not get on board with our conditions to save the country from instability PSOE will support a C government from the outside"

I don't think he would remain PSOE leader for long saying things like that.

Oh yes, it's a fantastic idea and socialists should go for it. Let's give all the power to Albert Rivera, the leader of the third party in parliament whose strategy is keeping tension high with his bigoted attacks against "Sánchez and his gang". Definitely it'd be the wisest decision to make. "For the good of the country"

You obviously right on the political dynamics but it seems to me that Sanchez has to threaten an outcome that is even worse for  Podemos  than status quo.  Not sure what it should be.

Repetition of elections is already a terrible outcome for Podemos. IU and other factions within UP will try to convince Iglesias to reach a confidence and supply agreement if a coalition government is not possible (and that possibility is dead in its tracks, according to deputy PM Calvo)

United Unknown made 13 satirical micro videos in square format for twitter about the Spanish political class that are funny and very well crafted. There are videos for the king, former PMs González, Aznar and Rajoy, the leaders of the main parties and even unemployment lines and  media sewers. Here you have Casado, Rivera and Arrimadas

https://twitter.com/unitedunknown/status/1154725428118118400?s=20

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Will errejon's run faction run in a new election?

[Skye]

So... there's a new CIS poll and, well...

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1156167417657274369

Apparently the PSOE is stronger than ever.

[Oryxslayer]

So... there's a new CIS poll and, well...

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1156167417657274369

Apparently the PSOE is stronger than ever.

It's CIS, so this is the appropriate response: -_-. But I fully expect there to be Podemos -> PSOE swings right now.

[Velasco]

Will errejon's run faction run in a new election?

Rumours exist, but Errejón and his collaborators deny some press reports and say their efforts are focused on the organization in Madrid. But Errejón admits there exists a space for "nonsectarian" and progressive forces, as well he says there is many people "excited" with that possibility and doesn't rule out to run. The rumours say Errejón is seeking to forge regional alliances, in order to create some sort of confederation. Possible allies are Compromís (Valencia), En Comú Podem (ECP, Catalonia), En Marea (Galicia) or even Adelante Andalucía (AA). The Valencian and the Galician parties already broke with Podemos, as well Errejón and Compromís leader Mónica Oltra have an excellent relationship. The Catalan and the Andalusian parties are still members of UP and it'd be complicated they ally a party led by Errejón. However, there is no great affinity between Ada Colau and Pablo Iglesias; the ECP leader and Barcelona mayor has a better relationship with Errejón. On a curious note, Errejón speaks Catalan as he decided t learn the language despite lacking family links with Catalonia (it's not an usual thing). Regarding Adelante Andalucía, the leader Teresa Rodríguez is member of the Anticapitalist faction of Podemos. It's notorious the relationship between Rodríguez and Iglesias is bad and some rumours say she would prefer to ally with Errejón, despite ideological differences (Rodríguez is more "radical" and Errejón is more "moderate"). Rodríguez is seeking more autonomy for AA within UP, but tbh I see extremely difficult it would leave the alliance with Iglesias in the eventuality of a November election. But people in UP fear Errejón could make a lot of harm to them standing lists in the largest constituencies, while people at La Moncloa (the government's seat) is making calculations.

Recently the Errejón party Más Madrid won a senator, appointed by the regional assembly. The MM member joined ECP, AA, Compromís and Més per Mallorca to create a parliamentary group called "Confederal Left". These parties joined forces in order to get more visibility in the Upper House, as Podemos lost all its representatives in the last general election.

https://twitter.com/unitedunknown/status/1154725641742356481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

[windjammer]

Who is being blamed for this fiasco?

[Velasco]

Who is being blamed for this fiasco?

There is a Metroscopia poll that says people blames PSOE the most. This doesn't imply necessarily voters will punish the socialists more than UP. But again, leftwing voters are angry and disappointed. Additionally, the fear of Vox has disapoeared. They might stay at home if we go to elections.

The CIS poll is obviously unreliable. Tezanos is saying something yhat we knew already: Sánchez is too sexy for this world

[Velasco]

"Spain’s voters upset at stalemate but divided over a new election", according to a 40dB poll for El País

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/08/01/inenglish/1564644095_006608.html

A study by the pollster 40dB shows that 71.6% of citizens are either upset or at the very least concerned about the way their political representatives have conducted themselves throughout the prolonged post-election period, which ended in a failed investiture bid last week.

Only right-wing and far-right supporters feel that a return to the polls would be a good solution for Spain, which has already gone through three general elections in under four years. The last one, on April 28, was won by the Socialist Party (PSOE) but the party fell short of an overall majority and has been struggling to form a government.

Political instability makes Spain to fall two spots in the Good Governance Index, from 25th to 27th

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/30/inenglish/1564483345_766673.html

Political instability in Spain is hurting its global image. The country has fallen from 25th to 27th place on the Good Governance Index, compiled by the MESIAS project with support from España Global (or Global Spain), a state agency working to monitor and improve the country’s image abroad.

The index ranks countries in six different areas: control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and voice and accountability. Spain fell in all parameters from 2016 to 2017 except for rule of law, where it moved up one place to 26th spot. But the most pronounced fall was in the area of political stability, where Spain fell from 33rd to 40th position on the list of 145 countries.

Isabel Díaz Ayuso will be the next premier of the Madrid region leading a PP-Cs coalition government. She has secured the Vox support after Cs accepted the lowered demands of the far right party. According to Cs regional leader and next deputy premier Ignacio Aguado, the parties found a "common denominator" and the document submitted by Vox doesn't affect the previous deal signed by PP and his party. The Vox paper relinquishes the following demands:

 a) reduction of regional governmet members (cabinet posts were increased from 9 to 13, in order to make room for PP and Cs politicians)
b) the modification of LGTBI legislation
c) the transfer to the origin countries of the health costs of irregular immigrants
d) a common deal signed by the three parties: a verbal and public commitment will be enough

Vox opted to focus on issues assumable for PP and Cs such as:

 a) more tax cuts (Madrid is already the Spain's tax haven)
b) creation of a new department of social affairs, family and natality aimed to "reverse the demographic winter")
c) freedom of school choice
d) PP and Cs accept the police has full access to all the data of irregular immigrants collected by regional administration
e) development aid will be used preferentially in regional projects against depopulation
f) all victims of violence, intimidation and harassment will be treated in the same way, preventing they have different levels of protection (this probably implies regional programme against gender based violence will be replaced by generic measures against "domestic violence", but possibly that's contrary to national legislation)

Ángel Gabilondo, the PSOE candidate in Madrid who placed first in elections, deems the Vox paper "disturbing"

A similar arrangement was made in previous days  between PP, Cs and Vox to govern the region o Murcia. The new premier Fernando López Miras (PP) thanked Cs and Vox for their generosity

PSOE will govern Navarre in coalition with GBai, Podemos and IU. EH Bildu held a grassroots consultation and 75% of voters agreed to allow the investiture of the socialist María Chivite with the abstention of their members in regional assembly. 

A coalition deal was reached in Aragón between PSOE, Podemos, PAR and CHA with the additional support of IU. The coalition incorporates the regional left and the centre-right Aragonese Party (PAR), a regionalist force often allied to PP. The PAR rejected a rightwing coalition due to incompatibility with Vox's radical centralism, opting to make a deal with the PSOE. Socialist premier Javier Lambán was reelected yesterday

[Velasco]

Nothing has changed in August and the most likely scenario is elections in November. Pedro Sánchez claims there's a third way, but his words sound hollow

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/09/02/inenglish/1567410896_725381.html

Spain’s acting prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, trusts that the current political deadlock will be resolved without the need for a repeat general election. In an interview with EL PAÍS he gave on Friday of last week at La Moncloa, the seat of the Spanish government, the Socialist Party (PSOE) leader earnestly defended a “third way” that would also bypass the option of a coalition with the leftist Unidas Podemos.

Sánchez, who will present his latest proposal on Tuesday in Madrid, said that it is based on a common progressive program that should allow him to secure enough parliamentary support to be confirmed as the new prime minister of Spain. He has been heading an acting administration since the election of April 28, which the PSOE won but without a majority to form a government. An investiture session held in July ended in defeat when Sánchez failed to attract the 176 votes he needed. This in turn triggered a countdown for new elections that ends on September 23. Fresh polls would be held in November, and would mark the fourth time Spaniards have been called to a general election in four years.  

[Lumine]

"Third way" meaning, of course, everybody else just giving him a blank cheque to govern alone despite barely having a third of the seats in Congress.

His gamble of a new election in which he tries not to be seen as the responsible and gains seats may indeed work, but he hasn't been exactly serious about working with other parties thus far. Victory through attrition Rajoy style in terms of government formation may be clever, but it isn't exactly responsible.

[samm5]

Nothing has changed in August and the most likely scenario is elections in November. Pedro Sánchez claims there's a third way, but his words sound hollow

Could it be possible for PSOE to win a majority with 32-35% of the votes? or at least form a minority government supported by regional parties?

[Velasco]

"Third way" meaning, of course, everybody else just giving him a blank cheque to govern alone despite barely having a third of the seats in Congress.

Let's see what the last offer is about, but basically is what you say. Either Sánchez & Co expect that Iglesias presses the panic button before day 23, or they are overconfident with the scenario of a new election.

From my perspective, both Sánchez and Iglesias are mistaking. The Podemos leader made a brilliant move in July, when he stepped aside and forced socialists to negotiate a coalition that Sánchez never wanted. However, Iglesias ruined his tactical success by asking too much and rejecting the last offer made by the socialists. Also, appointing someone like Pablo Echenique to talk with the socialists wasn't a wise decision in my opinion. Anyway a coalition agreement is totally impossible now, since there is no way to form a solid and stable government when there is no trace of mutual confidence

[Velasco]

Nothing has changed in August and the most likely scenario is elections in November. Pedro Sánchez claims there's a third way, but his words sound hollow

Could it be possible for PSOE to win a majority with 32-35% of the votes? or at least form a minority government supported by regional parties?

PP got 33% of the vote and won 137 seats in the repetition of elections that took place in 2016. It was a good result for Rajoy, but clearly insufficient to conform a majority in Congress. I doubt Sánchez will improve that mark in November, so there is no alternative to a deal with Podemos in the present circumstances

[crals]

And what will a new election even solve? It will be nearly impossible for PSOE to have a majority without UP. What a waste for the Spanish left.

[BundouYMB]

The complaints of people on here aren't reflected in the polls (for now). SocioMétrica and Sigma Dos are both out with new polls that show the left gaining.

SocioMétrica: https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20190901/psoe-podemos-absoluta-cs-perderia-elecciones-noviembre/425957438_0.html

Sigma Dos: https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/09/02/5d6c0dc5fc6c837f4a8b456e.html

These polls would have the PSOE gaining about twenty seats, UP more or less steady from the election.