Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Velasco
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« Reply #700 on: May 30, 2019, 10:36:49 AM »

Lol, so Sanchez isn't going to pass a budget and new elections will be held in less than 2 years!!!

Hopefully the next election will be in 4 years. Negotiations in parliament will be terribly complicated, but I think Sánchez will last more than 2 years.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #701 on: May 30, 2019, 10:40:12 AM »

Lol, so Sanchez isn't going to pass a budget and new elections will be held in less than 2 years!!!

Hopefully the next election will be in 4 years. Negotiations in parliament will be terribly complicated, but I think Sánchez will last more than 2 years.

I fully expect an election to happen in late 2022 at the latest. I can't see Sánchez wanting a general election so close to the regional/local elections of 2023 again.

Granted, that's still 3 and a half years from now, but still not the full 4 years
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Velasco
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« Reply #702 on: June 01, 2019, 11:20:01 PM »

Nationwide precinct map of the Spanish Local Elections

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-elecciones-municipales-resultados-calle_0_904309592.html

Precinct map of the Madrid regional election

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-resultados-Comunidad-Madrid-calle_0_903610901.html

The rivalry between Podemos founders Pablo Iglesias and Íñigo Errejón in graphs. Más Madrid, the list led by Ïñigo Errejón, got 14.7% (471k) in regional elections while the Unidas Podemos list backed by Pablo Iglesias got 5.6% (179k). The combined vote of Más Madrid and UP exceeded by 40 thousand votes the UP result in the general elections. Also, the combined result of MM and UP retained the 27 seats won by Podemos in 2015 (IU got 4.3% and didn't win seats), while the PSOE won 37 seats in both elections with a 2% increase in vote share. Compared to the EP results, UP lost nearly 230k and PSOE 157k. Presumably a vast majority of these votes backed Más Madrid in regional elections. With these results Ïñigo Errejón has stated the intention to create a new party inspired in the German Greens. For the moment this party would not extend outside the borders of Madrid, but Errejón doesn't rule out alliances with other regional forces to create a federal structure in all Spain.

https://www.eldiario.es/madrid/primera-electoral-Iglesias-Errejon-graficos_0_904309895.html

In the news: "Center-right Ciudadanos is under growing pressure not to do deals with the far-right Vox, which could allow the left to form a government in the Madrid region and elsewhere"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/05/31/inenglish/1559288173_006357.html

Quote
(...) his Italian-style situation has been brewing for years now, but it has been consolidated with the recent election results. It is also putting a spotlight on those who are offering Italian-style solutions, such as the Spanish-born Valls, the Ciudadanos candidate for Barcelona City Hall. He is offering his votes to the incumbent mayor, former campaigner Ada Colau, in a bid to keep control of the council out of the hands of pro-independence candidate Ernest Maragall. In the case of Íñigo Errejón, formerly of Podemos but who ran for the Madrid regional government with the Más Madrid party, he is offering to do a deal with Ciudadanos and the PSOE in order to keep the PP and Ciudadanos from relying on the support of far-right Vox to form a government both in the regional assembly and city council (...)


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windjammer
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« Reply #703 on: June 02, 2019, 06:31:38 AM »

Nationwide precinct map of the Spanish Local Elections

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-elecciones-municipales-resultados-calle_0_904309592.html

Precinct map of the Madrid regional election

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-resultados-Comunidad-Madrid-calle_0_903610901.html

The rivalry between Podemos founders Pablo Iglesias and Íñigo Errejón in graphs. Más Madrid, the list led by Ïñigo Errejón, got 14.7% (471k) in regional elections while the Unidas Podemos list backed by Pablo Iglesias got 5.6% (179k). The combined vote of Más Madrid and UP exceeded by 40 thousand votes the UP result in the general elections. Also, the combined result of MM and UP retained the 27 seats won by Podemos in 2015 (IU got 4.3% and didn't win seats), while the PSOE won 37 seats in both elections with a 2% increase in vote share. Compared to the EP results, UP lost nearly 230k and PSOE 157k. Presumably a vast majority of these votes backed Más Madrid in regional elections. With these results Ïñigo Errejón has stated the intention to create a new party inspired in the German Greens. For the moment this party would not extend outside the borders of Madrid, but Errejón doesn't rule out alliances with other regional forces to create a federal structure in all Spain.

https://www.eldiario.es/madrid/primera-electoral-Iglesias-Errejon-graficos_0_904309895.html

In the news: "Center-right Ciudadanos is under growing pressure not to do deals with the far-right Vox, which could allow the left to form a government in the Madrid region and elsewhere"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/05/31/inenglish/1559288173_006357.html

Quote
(...) his Italian-style situation has been brewing for years now, but it has been consolidated with the recent election results. It is also putting a spotlight on those who are offering Italian-style solutions, such as the Spanish-born Valls, the Ciudadanos candidate for Barcelona City Hall. He is offering his votes to the incumbent mayor, former campaigner Ada Colau, in a bid to keep control of the council out of the hands of pro-independence candidate Ernest Maragall. In the case of Íñigo Errejón, formerly of Podemos but who ran for the Madrid regional government with the Más Madrid party, he is offering to do a deal with Ciudadanos and the PSOE in order to keep the PP and Ciudadanos from relying on the support of far-right Vox to form a government both in the regional assembly and city council (...)



It would be dumb from them to make a deal with Mas Madrid and PSOE. Their electorate is definitely rightwing.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #704 on: June 02, 2019, 01:45:13 PM »
« Edited: June 02, 2019, 01:59:33 PM by tack50 »

First post-regional elections poll.

PSOE: 34%
PP: 15%
Cs: 15%
UP: 13%
Vox: 8%

Other than the fact that PP is actually up and not down imo and that I don't think PSOE has gone up that much (though they did get 33% in the EU elections I guess), it seems fairly believable.

Also, under these numbers PSOE+UP get an overall majority without needing anyone else.
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Velasco
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« Reply #705 on: June 02, 2019, 03:02:27 PM »


It would be dumb from them to make a deal with Mas Madrid and PSOE. Their electorate is definitely rightwing.

I don't think it's dumb to explore alternatives that keep the far right out of power, but sadly the likeliest scenario in Madrid is the rightwing triumvirate. I'm not a big fan of Manuel Valls, but he's absolutely right in putting his principles above everything else.

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Velasco
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« Reply #706 on: June 02, 2019, 04:06:07 PM »
« Edited: June 02, 2019, 04:43:26 PM by Velasco »

With regard to the analysis of local elections in Barcelona, according to eldiario.es pro-independence parties decreased in the upper class neighbourhoods and increased in the lower class. While the affluent areas switched from CiU to the Manuel Valls list backed by Cs, there's an increase of the vote for ERC in the working-class neighbourhoods correlated to an increase in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region. The article talks about a "Rufián effect", referring to the controversial ERC candidate in general elections Gabriel Rufián (verbose separatist with Andalusian origins, very popular in Twitter). Local election results in the poor areas of Barcelona and Metro region were good for the PSC, but the support for the Ada Colau party decreased. Pro-independence increase does not imply hegemony, since the support for separatist parties is always below 30% in the poorest neighbourhoods of Nou Barris and the Besos. In the wealthy neighbourhoods of Barcelona  the ERC increase does not compensate the decrease of JxCAT with regard to CiU in 2015. Cs (Valls) is the preferred party of the Barcelona rlites, ehile PSC makes inroads in these traditionally hostile places. The PSC increase is apparently uniforn throughout the city. BCOMU decreased in poorest neighbourhoods that returned to PSC, as well in lower middle class areas, while resisted better in upper middle class neighbourhoods where ERC is the first party. Following the link you'll find some interesting maps and stuff

https://m.eldiario.es/catalunya/politica/independentismo-barrios-fuerza-humildes-Barcelona_0_903960271.html

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windjammer
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« Reply #707 on: June 02, 2019, 04:10:20 PM »


It would be dumb from them to make a deal with Mas Madrid and PSOE. Their electorate is definitely rightwing.

I don't think it's dumb to explore alternatives that keep the far right out of power, but sadly the likeliest scenario in Madrid is the rightwing triumvirate. I'm not a big fan of Manuel Valls, but he's absolutely right in putting his principles above everything else.


Valls has destroyed the French left so hopefully he will destroy Ciudadanos.
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« Reply #708 on: June 02, 2019, 04:37:27 PM »

First post-regional elections poll.

PSOE: 34%
PP: 15%
Cs: 15%
UP: 13%
Vox: 8%

Other than the fact that PP is actually up and not down imo and that I don't think PSOE has gone up that much (though they did get 33% in the EU elections I guess), it seems fairly believable.

Also, under these numbers PSOE+UP get an overall majority without needing anyone else.

Could Sanchez call another election so he won't have to rely on the hated separatists, or would that risk inducing election fatigue?
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Velasco
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« Reply #709 on: June 02, 2019, 04:54:12 PM »
« Edited: June 02, 2019, 06:38:45 PM by Velasco »

I think the local and regional elections were good for the PSOE and the EP election was a huge success for the list topped by the Catalan anti-separatist Josep Borrell, as well as a good one for Puigdemont in Catalonia (but not for his party in local elections). I think there is a huge election fatigue in all of Spain except in the heated Catalonia
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #710 on: June 02, 2019, 07:25:04 PM »

First post-regional elections poll.

PSOE: 34%
PP: 15%
Cs: 15%
UP: 13%
Vox: 8%

Other than the fact that PP is actually up and not down imo and that I don't think PSOE has gone up that much (though they did get 33% in the EU elections I guess), it seems fairly believable.

Also, under these numbers PSOE+UP get an overall majority without needing anyone else.

Could Sanchez call another election so he won't have to rely on the hated separatists, or would that risk inducing election fatigue?

Most likely it would see election fatigue. I can't see Sánchez risking an early election, he will do everything in his power to be elected right now.

I would not rule out an election in 2 years time or so though, if the secessionists still refuse to pass his budgets.
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Velasco
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« Reply #711 on: June 04, 2019, 11:31:55 PM »
« Edited: June 05, 2019, 06:57:19 AM by Velasco »

Leading party by neighbourhood in the Barcelona local elections of 2015 and 2019


Results:
 ERC 21.3% (+10.3%) 10 (+5) councilors. Candidate: Ernest Maragall
BComú 20.7% (-4.5%) 10 (-1) councilors. Candidate: Ada Colau
PSC 18.4% (+8.8%) 8 (+4) councilors. Candidate: Jaume Collboni
BpC Cs 13.2% (+2.2%) 6 (+1) councilors. Candidate: Manuel Valls
JxCAT (CiU 2015) 10.5% (-12.3%) 5 (-5) councilors. Candidate: Joaquim Forn*
PP 5.0% (-3.7%) 2 (-1) councilors. Candidate: Josep Bou

CUP 3.9% (-3.5%) 0 (-3) councilors
BCAP Primaries 3.7% (new) 0 councilors
VOX 1.2% (+0.9%) 0 councilors

* Joaquim Forn is in preventive detention. The second in the list is the spokeswoman of the Catalan government Elsa Artadi

Take a look at the income map in a previous post to spot socioeconomic patterns
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #712 on: June 05, 2019, 07:23:56 AM »

Certainly an interesting map. Colau seems to have her vote more evenly spread out compared to ERC, Cs (who won the rich "Upper Diagonal") or PSC (which a concentrated vote in Nou Barris.

In more news: Pablo Iglesias has fired Pablo Echenique as Podemos' head of organization. He himself is not resigning of course. I wonder if Iglesias clinging on to Podemos might lead to UPyD syndrome (with Iglesias sinking the party). Of course even now Podemos is larger than UPyD ever was but still.

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/06/04/5cf6d1f821efa01f208b45a2.html

Also, UPN seems open to negotiating an abstention with Sánchez in exchange for Pamplona's mayorship and the regional government. PSOE now has a tough choice to make. If they take the offer, any chances of getting Bildu support inmediately evaporate and even PNV support would not be certain. While I still believe PNV will backtrack, they have said they won't support Sánchez if he props up UPN in Navarra. I most certainly can't imagine PNV of all people forcing a second election.

As for the other party that may prop up Sánchez (CC), that isn't happening.

Today were the king's consultations with parties, which will go on this afternoon and tomorrow as well. ERC and Bildu declined to attend.

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2019/06/05/5cf78c04fc6c833a328b4825.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #713 on: June 05, 2019, 08:34:46 AM »
« Edited: June 05, 2019, 10:31:13 PM by Velasco »

Certainly an interesting map. Colau seems to have her vote more evenly spread out compared to ERC, Cs (who won the rich "Upper Diagonal") or PSC (which a concentrated vote in Nou Barris.

No, it's the opposite. The ERC vote is more evenly spread than the Ada Colau's.

The best neighbourhood for ERC was la Barceloneta (30.2%) and it's the only one where the Ernest Maragall list got more than 30% of the vote. The worst was Ciutat Meridiana (10.6%) in Nou Barris. ERC got between 20% and 30% of the vote in a majority of neighbourhoods. There are a few places where ERC got less than 15%, mostly in the poor peripheral places won by the PSC and in some upper class neighbourhoods like Pedralbes.


Barcelona en Comú, the Ada Colau party, got its best results in the tiny la Clota (32.1%) and in Sant Pere, Santa Caterina i la Ribera (30.4%), located in Horta-Guinardó and Ciutat Vella districts respectively. The worst result was in Pedralbes (4.8%) and it got less than 10% in some other wealthy neighbourhoods. In the rest of Barcelona the vote for BComú is more evenly spread, either in middle class or working class neighbourhoods.

The PSC regained its stronghold in Nou Barris from BComú, but it also managed to grow in middle and upper class neighbourgoods. Socialists got more than 30% in several neighbourhoods of Nou Barris (Ciutat Meridiana 38.7%) and el Carmel. Also, the PSC got more than 10% in the same upper class neighbourhoods where the Colau party is weak, which is an improvement. Somewhat surprisingly the worst result for the PSC was in Vila de Gràcia (11.3%), that is a neighbourhood with a leftist tradition (BComú came first getting 27.6%) and a strong nationalist vote. PSC got between 15% and 20% in a majority of neighbourhoods.

The best result for the list of Manuel Valls was in Pedralbes (34.8%), the wealthiest neighbourhood of Barcelona located in Les Corts district; the second best in Las Tres Torres (33.8%) in Sarrià-Sant Gervasi district. The worst results were in places like la Clota (5.7%) and Vila de Gràcia (7.3%).

Junts got it best result in Sarrià (19.4%), but lost ore than a half of its support in the uptown places that voted CiU in 2015 and now embraced Valls. The worst results for JxCAT were in Nou Barris (Ciutat Meridiana 2.1%)

PP got 10% in Pedralbes and some 1.7% in la Clota
 

BComú came first in 6 of the 10 municipal districts, ERC in 2 (Eixample and Les Corts), PSC in 1 (Nou Barris) and Cs in 1 (Sarrià-Sant Gervasi).

In the news: ERC suspended negotiations with BComú asking Ada Colau to make clear if she wants to deal with Ernest Maragall or go with the socialists and Valls. It's telling.
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Velasco
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« Reply #714 on: June 05, 2019, 09:56:14 AM »
« Edited: June 05, 2019, 10:05:29 PM by Velasco »

Regarding Podemos, Pablo Echenique will be replaced by Alberto Rodríguez (aka Rastaman), a deputy from Santa Cruz de Tenerife. Rodriguez is senior technician in environnental chemistry and worked in the petrol refinery located in the Tenerife capital. His rastaman appearance shocked Mariano Rajoy at the inaugural session of the Congress after the 2015 elections; the picture of Rajoy gazing at Rodríguez was published by all papers. My cousin has met Rodríguez and says he's a nice man. Podemos, is more than ever the Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero Cult Sect. I guess Podemos will become increasingly marginal over the time and I only hope that it's not replaced by something worse.

It'd be a shame the Navarrese Socialists are sacrificed again in exchange for the UPN votes, as it happened in 2007. PSOE candidate Maria Chivite will begin to talk with GBai, Podemos and IU. The problem is that she needs that EH Bildu abstains and the PSOE national leadership doesn't like it. Also, EH Bildu is seeking to retain the Pamplona mayoralty. That requires PSOE votes in favour of the EH Bildu candidate, which is not going to happen.

In the Canaries, Cs rejects to vote for the CC candidate Fernando Clavijo because he's been investigated for an affair dating back to his tenure as mayor of La Laguna. PSOE could try a deal with Podemos, NC and Casimiro Curbelo... or a deal with the PP. CC is governing since 1993: 26 years of cronyism and incompetence.

The Cs leadership agreed that PP is the preferential partner for coalitions, but rules out direct negotiations with VOX (dirty work is left to the PP). The centrist faction represented by Luis Garicano and the candidate in Castile and Leon Francisco Igea advocated deals with PSOE (Garicano supported the Valls move in Barcelona, as separatists will "destroy" the city and Colau is the "lesser evil"). Igea prefers to deal with the socialists in his region, while Ignacio Aguado in Madrid rejects any alternative to the deal with PP (and Vox). The problem is that Vox is not willing to accept being ignored and marginalized by the oranges. Santiago Abascal assures he prefers to commit hara kiri (allowing Carnena and Gabilondo to govern) to be humiliated by the arrogant  orange vanes...
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Velasco
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« Reply #715 on: June 07, 2019, 01:10:09 AM »
« Edited: June 07, 2019, 04:20:10 AM by Velasco »

Pedro Sánchez accepts the commission of King Felipe to form a government "as soon as possible". Spanish political parties have been meeting with King Felipe to discuss who they will support in the investiture vote. During these talks, PSOE and Pedro Sánchez remained silent playing the "waiting game"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/06/inenglish/1559813278_485053.html

Quote
Ana Oramas, a lawmaker with the small regional party Canary Coalition (CC) with years of experience in negotiations, put it bluntly: “It is the first time in 11 years that we have arrived at the round of talks with the king without having a single conversation with the investiture candidate or their team.”

Ana Oramas ruled out CC will help Pedro Sánchez, given that her party rejects deals with Podemos and presumably the PSOE will have to make an arrangement with the purples. However there exists the option to replace the 2 CC votes with the 2 deputies of the Navarrese People's Union (UPN, part of NA+). The abstention of the 2 Navarrese regionalists would pave the way for Pedro Sánchez to be elected in a second investiture vote, providing that PSOE secures the support of UP, PNV, Compromís and PRC. These parties add 173 seats (3 short of a majority), while the parties voting against would add 172 seats (discounted the 2 UPN deputies and the 3 JxCAT deputies in preventive detention that haven't been replaced). Reminder: first investiture requires absolute majority (176 seats of 350), while second investiture vote requires simple majority (more votes in favour than against).

 The abstention of the UPN deputies would be in exchange for the PSOE abstention in the Navarrese regional parliament and in the Pamplona town hall, allowing NA+ to govern the region and its capital. This deal would entail the sacrifice of the Navarrese branch of the PSOE led by María Chivite, who is seeking a deal with GBai (PNV and progressive independents), Podemos and IU that requires the abstention of EH Bildu (Basque separatists) to succeed. PSOE national leadership dislikes the idea of a regional government depending on EH Bildu, because Pedro Sánchez is seeking an investiture without the support of separatist parties and needs the UPN votes. Apparently this exchange between PSOE and UPN won't create major problems with the PNV, despite it entails the GBai ally will go to opposition in Navarre (PNV might be considering run in its own or with another brand in Navarre).On the other hand, PP leader Pablo Casado stated he doesn't oppose a deal between UPN and PSOE if NA+ governs. Cs leader Albert Rivera is against such deals and he considers PSOE should simply allow the "constitutionalists" to govern, instead seeking the support of "populists" and "separatists". NA+ is a coalition operating in Navarre including UPN, PP and Cs.

The PSOE has been playing a waiting game in order to strengthen its position in negotiations, as well to move into centre stage

Quote
he Socialists appear to be playing a waiting game while other parties – especially the center-right Ciudadanos (Citizens) and the far-right Vox – hold numerous meetings, negotiate with one another, and deal with infighting.

The PSOE is open to all options, even to a deal with Ciudadanos, which may ultimately prove too difficult. And it has managed to keep its options open without hardly entering into negotiations. “The PSOE is not calling anybody because it is taking its time to see if there are other allies around,” said Alberto Garzón, the leader of United Left, which joined forces with the anti-austerity party Podemos at the general election to run as Unidas Podemos.

Albert Rivera has made clear there is no chance for a deal with the PSOE, as he is engaged to fight with Pablo Casado for the leadership of the opposition (Rivera claims leading the opposition is a matter of "attitude" and not necessarily a matter of seats in parliament). In what regards UP, the disastrous performance on May 26 diminishes the chance to enter in a coalition government. PSOE spokepersons have suggested that Pablo Iglesias should reconsider his pretensions. The weaker position of UP is reflected in the way socialists are no longer treating the coalition led by Iglesias as a "preferential partner", although the 42 UP votes in Congress are still necessary for Pedro Sánchez. After his meeting with King Felipe, Pablo Iglesias complained because Pedro Sánchez did not contact him in the past two weeks. The image of this "humbled" Iglesias contrasts sharply with his arrogant press conference after the meeting with the king after the 2015 elections. Then the attitude of Iglesias was dismissive, stating that it'd be a "smile of destiny" that Pedro Sánchez became PM.  The possibility of a PSOE-UP coalition is apparently fading away, but in any case negotiations start now.

Quote
Sánchez has liked to play a leading role in negotiations ever since he took power in June 2018 after leading a successful no-confidence motion against former Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of the PP. But this time around he is following the strategy of his predecessor, who always waited to see how the pieces fell before making a move.
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Velasco
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« Reply #716 on: June 07, 2019, 04:13:07 AM »
« Edited: June 07, 2019, 04:36:54 AM by Velasco »

Regarding the formation of regional governments, you can check the pactometre (interactive map that shows you deal options when you click on a region)

https://elpais.com/especiales/2019/elecciones-autonomicas/pactos-electorales/
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« Reply #717 on: June 07, 2019, 06:13:39 AM »

Pedro Sánchez accepts the commission of King Felipe to form a government "as soon as possible". Spanish political parties have been meeting with King Felipe to discuss who they will support in the investiture vote. During these talks, PSOE and Pedro Sánchez remained silent playing the "waiting game"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/06/inenglish/1559813278_485053.html

Quote
Ana Oramas, a lawmaker with the small regional party Canary Coalition (CC) with years of experience in negotiations, put it bluntly: “It is the first time in 11 years that we have arrived at the round of talks with the king without having a single conversation with the investiture candidate or their team.”

Ana Oramas ruled out CC will help Pedro Sánchez, given that her party rejects deals with Podemos and presumably the PSOE will have to make an arrangement with the purples. However there exists the option to replace the 2 CC votes with the 2 deputies of the Navarrese People's Union (UPN, part of NA+). The abstention of the 2 Navarrese regionalists would pave the way for Pedro Sánchez to be elected in a second investiture vote, providing that PSOE secures the support of UP, PNV, Compromís and PRC. These parties add 173 seats (3 short of a majority), while the parties voting against would add 172 seats (discounted the 2 UPN deputies and the 3 JxCAT deputies in preventive detention that haven't been replaced). Reminder: first investiture requires absolute majority (176 seats of 350), while second investiture vote requires simple majority (more votes in favour than against).

 The abstention of the UPN deputies would be in exchange for the PSOE abstention in the Navarrese regional parliament and in the Pamplona town hall, allowing NA+ to govern the region and its capital. This deal would entail the sacrifice of the Navarrese branch of the PSOE led by María Chivite, who is seeking a deal with GBai (PNV and progressive independents), Podemos and IU that requires the abstention of EH Bildu (Basque separatists) to succeed. PSOE national leadership dislikes the idea of a regional government depending on EH Bildu, because Pedro Sánchez is seeking an investiture without the support of separatist parties and needs the UPN votes. Apparently this exchange between PSOE and UPN won't create major problems with the PNV, despite it entails the GBai ally will go to opposition in Navarre (PNV might be considering run in its own or with another brand in Navarre).On the other hand, PP leader Pablo Casado stated he doesn't oppose a deal between UPN and PSOE if NA+ governs. Cs leader Albert Rivera is against such deals and he considers PSOE should simply allow the "constitutionalists" to govern, instead seeking the support of "populists" and "separatists". NA+ is a coalition operating in Navarre including UPN, PP and Cs.

The PSOE has been playing a waiting game in order to strengthen its position in negotiations, as well to move into centre stage

Quote
he Socialists appear to be playing a waiting game while other parties – especially the center-right Ciudadanos (Citizens) and the far-right Vox – hold numerous meetings, negotiate with one another, and deal with infighting.

The PSOE is open to all options, even to a deal with Ciudadanos, which may ultimately prove too difficult. And it has managed to keep its options open without hardly entering into negotiations. “The PSOE is not calling anybody because it is taking its time to see if there are other allies around,” said Alberto Garzón, the leader of United Left, which joined forces with the anti-austerity party Podemos at the general election to run as Unidas Podemos.

Albert Rivera has made clear there is no chance for a deal with the PSOE, as he is engaged to fight with Pablo Casado for the leadership of the opposition (Rivera claims leading the opposition is a matter of "attitude" and not necessarily a matter of seats in parliament). In what regards UP, the disastrous performance on May 26 diminishes the chance to enter in a coalition government. PSOE spokepersons have suggested that Pablo Iglesias should reconsider his pretensions. The weaker position of UP is reflected in the way socialists are no longer treating the coalition led by Iglesias as a "preferential partner", although the 42 UP votes in Congress are still necessary for Pedro Sánchez. After his meeting with King Felipe, Pablo Iglesias complained because Pedro Sánchez did not contact him in the past two weeks. The image of this "humbled" Iglesias contrasts sharply with his arrogant press conference after the meeting with the king after the 2015 elections. Then the attitude of Iglesias was dismissive, stating that it'd be a "smile of destiny" that Pedro Sánchez became PM.  The possibility of a PSOE-UP coalition is apparently fading away, but in any case negotiations start now.

Quote
Sánchez has liked to play a leading role in negotiations ever since he took power in June 2018 after leading a successful no-confidence motion against former Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of the PP. But this time around he is following the strategy of his predecessor, who always waited to see how the pieces fell before making a move.

It's pretty obvious that the Socialists don't have any option BUT a coalition with Podemos. So whatever Sanchez thinks about Iglesias' humility he won't be returned as PM without forming a government with him.
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« Reply #718 on: June 07, 2019, 08:22:40 AM »
« Edited: June 07, 2019, 08:28:24 AM by Velasco »


It's pretty obvious that the Socialists don't have any option BUT a coalition with Podemos. So whatever Sanchez thinks about Iglesias' humility he won't be returned as PM without forming a government with him.

It's obvious that socialists have no other option but seeking the UP support. The main goal of Pablo Iglesias right now is entering in a coaltion government, in order to mitigate the effects of rlectoral catastrophe (Iglesias saved his face in April, but UP collapsed in May) and touch power. The 42 seats that UP holds in Congress are an important asset in negotiations, but socialists know that Pablo Iglesias can't threat them seriously with a repetition of elections (it'd be a disaster for UP) and that not everybody in the Iglesias' group is comfortable with the idea of a coalition government. For instance the Andalusian branch led by Teresa Rodríguez prefers not to participate in a coalition and favours an agreement on platform issues between PSOE and UP, as it happens in Portugal with PS and the leftist parties. The Podemos-IU alliance in Andalusia resisted better than in other regions, retaining the mayoralty of Cádiz.Teresa Rodríguez is a representative of the Podemos faction that is further to the left...

As I said before, negotiations start now and all is gambling
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« Reply #719 on: June 08, 2019, 05:15:31 AM »
« Edited: June 08, 2019, 05:27:41 AM by Velasco »

Pedro Sánchez is ready to begin talks t form a new government

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/07/inenglish/1559891314_393684.html

Quote
I have a tremendous feeling of gratitude for the Spanish people, and a tremendous sense of responsibility,” said Sánchez, who will next week initiate talks with the conservative Popular Party (PP), center-right Ciudadanos (Citizens) and left-wing Unidas Podemos to discuss support for a PSOE-led government.

“We need to start this conversation. It’s either the PSOE or the PSOE. There is no alternative majority,” he said. “Everyone is responsible for facilitating this government, most particularly Podemos, the PP and Ciudadanos.”

The acting PM will meet Pablo Iglesias first, but the consultation round will follow with Pablo Casado and Albert Rivera. Sánchez will pressure rightwing leaders asking them to abstain and facilitate his investiture. It's highly unlikely that PP and Cs will help Sánchez and the negotiations between PSOE and UP will be tough. As said in the oprevious post the creation of a majority without the support of the (always unreliable) separatist parties is very complex and depends on the abstention of the Navarrese regionalists. Pablo Iglesias is upset because Pedro Sánchez hasn't talked with him in the last two weeks and says he fears the PSOE leader is considering a deal with Cs, despite the recent moves of the orange party and the awful personal relation between Sánchez and Rivera say otherwise.

PP and Vox sealed a deal to govern the municipalities where both parties have a majority without Cs. The deal has to be countersigned by local organizations and would affect around 30 municipalities including Almería and several towns belonging to its province (El Ejido, Adra, Roquetas de Mar, Nerja), Algeciras (Cádiz province, in front of Gibraltar), Ceuta and some wealthy towns in Madrid province (Pozuelo de Alarcón, Majadahonda and Las Rozas). However the deal won't be viable in Ceuta due to the Vox's "aggressive" message "contrary to connivance", according to local PP sources. This deal comes out in the context of the complex negotiations between PP and Cs, particularly tough in Madrid. A meeting between representatives of the PP and Cs municipal groups in Madrid went badly, to the point that PP councilor elect Andrea Levy (former deputy and Rajoy's protegé, a young promising star from Catalonia) stated that she's not sure who's going to support Cs. Sadly this doesn't imply that Cs will allow Manuela Carmena and Ángel Gabilondo to govern the Spain's capital and the region of Madrid. Rather the oranges are seeking to place Begoña Villacís as mayor or Ignacio Aguado as premier. The way Cs rejects to negotiate face to face with Vox, despite oranges need the far right votes to govern, is an additional difficulty. Madrid is too important for the Spanish Right to be lost due to differences between parties, so the most likely scenario is the Colón Triumvirate finally reaches an agreement to secure the city and the region's "tax oasis".

BComú grassroots endorsed massively the Cplau's decision to seek reelection as mayor of Barcelona.

PSOE and PAR reached an agreement in Aragon that doesn't secure a majority (only, but prevents the possibility of a rightwing government. The centre-right Aragonese Party ruled out deals with Vox due the radical centralism of the Santiago Abascal party. The PSOE premier Javier Lambán has secured 27 of 67 seats (PSOE 24, PAR 3) and needs to reach agreements with Cs (12) or the leftist parties (Podemos  5, CHA 3 and IU 1).

Casimiro Curbelo is the kingmaker in the Canary Islands, once socialists ruled out a deal with the PP. The cacique of La Gomera island caught a flight to Madrid and met minister of Development José Luis Äbalos, who is also the PSOE's secretary for organization. They talked about a deal that would allow the socialists to replace CC regionalists in government. Curbelo stated that he will be "cool and pragmatic" and didn't give clues on which candidate he will support. The leader of La Gomera left the PSOE in 2011 and since then he allied with CC in regional parliament. Even if he gets the support of the ASG (Gomera Socialists), the acting CC premier has a problem with Cs. Fernando Clavijo is under investigation for an old affair as mayor of La Laguna (Tenerife) and oranges reject to back him because of this. CC officials met in Madrid with Cs secretary general José Manuel Villegas in order to lift the veto on Clavijo. Orange bosses will look the Clavijo affair "calmly", according to a CC spokeperson. The parties left of the centre (PSOE 25, NC 5 and Podemos 4) hold 34 seats in regional parliament, parties right of the centre (CC 20. PP 11 and Cs 2) hold 33 and the Curbelo's ASG holds the remaining 3.
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« Reply #720 on: June 09, 2019, 01:04:14 AM »
« Edited: June 09, 2019, 09:38:34 PM by Velasco »

Yesterday there was a meeting of the Podemos' "citizen council", the party's executive committee. Pablo Iglesias made his case with the coalition, arguing that the only way to change policies is entering the government ("programmatic agreements are dead letters", he said). Currently the "citizen council" consists in the Iglesias' supporters and the regional leaders, given that a majority of the members close to Íñigo Errejón faction has left and the remaining are mere spectators. The only opposition to Pablo Iglesias comes from regions like Andalusia and Aragon, whose representatives favour programmatic agreement instead coalition government as well as a greater decentralization of the party structure. The spokesman of the Andalusian branch warned about the risk of a coalition with the PSOE in a moment the European Commission is demanding cuts to Spain. Pablo Iglesias analyzed the causes of the bad electoral results, arguing they were due to internal division and organizational weakness. The Podemos leader criticized the weak regional structures and the lack of territorial leadership. He only acknowledged the work well done by José María González (aka Kichi, mayor of Cádiz) and Ada Colau (the mayor of Barcelona is not a Podemos member and her reelection is not secured). Iglesias argued that he performed better in general elections (not a good result, but above expectations), showing little capacity for self-criticism in the view of many analysts. The Podemos leader claims he wants to lead a new political stage with coalition governments at all administrative levels. The two-party system is dead and now "compromise and dialogue" are necessary. Iglesias warned again on the possibility that Pedro Sánchez tries to deal with Cs. Finally the renewal of the Podemos leadership entails that Pablo Echenique has been replaced by the Canarian deputy Alberto Rodríguez as Secretary for organization (third-in-line after Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero) and that Ïñigo Errejón no longer appears as member in the party website.

The "serious doubts" towards the PP of the Cs candidate Francisco Igea favour an approach to the PSOE in Castile and León. PSOE candidate José Luis Tudanca encouraged Igea to reach an agreement in the view of their "multiple coincidences". PP governs the region since 1987.
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« Reply #721 on: June 10, 2019, 11:39:14 AM »

While at the regional level there will be some variation, at the local level, all 8000+ municipalities will actually have their first town council meeting and elect a mayor this Saturday, from Madrid to the tiniest village with like 5 inhabitants.

Here is how mayors are elected in Spain:

1: Local Elections This already happened on the 26th of May. The electoral system is standard D'Hondt with a 5% hurdle and we all know the results.

2: First Council Meeting: At the first council meeting, all heads from each party with representation in the town council are automatically candidates for mayor unless they drop out.

3: Mayor vote: An overall majority (50%+1) of Councillors is needed to elect a mayor. There is only a single round of voting.

4: Failsafe: If no one candidate gets 50%+1 of Councillors, the head of the party which got the most votes is automatically elected as mayor

5: No Confidence votes: At any point during the 4 year term a no confidence vote can be introduced against the mayor. If 50%+1 of Councillors agree, the mayor is replaced. I believe this is capped to a single successful no confidence vote for the entire 4 year term but don't quote me on that.

So it's pretty much like a small scale version of the national parliament.

Last term (2015-2019), some high profile no confidence votes/party control switches include Badalona for example (town in the Barcelona suburbs, used to have a CUP mayor until PSC stopped supporting it and a PP+PSC brought a PSC mayor even if PP was larger).

If the mayor resigns at any point, this process is also used.
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« Reply #722 on: June 11, 2019, 01:28:23 AM »
« Edited: June 11, 2019, 02:53:13 AM by Velasco »

Pedro Sánchez opens the negotiations for his investiture today. He will hold consecutive meetings (in this order) with Pablo Iglesias, Albert Rivera and Pablo Casado. The strategy of the governing party is to direct pressure over opposition leaders making them responsible for the stability of the country. The alternatives are a PSOE government or the repetition of elections, warned José Luis Äbalos from the PSOE's HQs. Socialists take for granted a repetition of elections would entail the downfall of UP and a decrease for Cs. Ábalos stressed that Spaniards won't forgive those who jeopardize stability. Today Pedro Sánchez will demand political actors "generosity", "patriotism" and "giving in for the common good". "It's important that Spaniards know which parties have constructive willingness (...) and which ones want to kick the table". PP and Cs will be pressed to abstain in the investiture vote, invoking the 2016 precedent when most of the PSOE MPs abstained to allow the investiture of Mariano Rajoy (Pedro Sánchez opposed and was ousted from leadership shortly thereafter). Sánchez claims abstention would be an act of consistency and offers PP and Cs "big agreements" on pensions, regional funding and infrastructures.

PSOE leadership rules out the "Navarrese Path" for investiture. The abstention of the  UPN deputies in Congress would be useless, because it would entail the withdrawal of PNV support. Right now the PSOE is willing to allow NA+ (UPN, PP and Cs) to govern Pamplona, replacing the acting local government led by EH Bildu. Results in Pamplona: NA+ 13 councilors, EH Bildu 7, PSOE 5 and GBai 2. The PSOE won't support EH Bildu mayoral candidates in Navarre and refuses to negotiate with Basque separatists. Despite this, PSOE candidate María Chivite won't give up her attempt to govern the region. Chivite would need the support of GBai (Basque nationalists) and the leftist parties to succeed, as well as the abstention of EH Bildu. Composition of regional parliament: NA+ 20 seats, PSOE 11, GBai 9, EH Bildu 7, Podemos2, IU 1.

Socialists maintain their rejection to a coalition government with Unidas Podemos, arguing they would consider the possibility if both parties had a majority. PSOE and UP only have 165 seats, while majority is set at 176. They also argue that a coalition with UP would substract the support of parties like CC. They also dislike some Iglesias' statements claiming that UP would be vigilant in order to ensure progressive policies are implemented. However Pablo Iglesias is not willing to give up. The Podemos leader says he won't give blank cheques to Pedro Sánchez. "If we are not in the government, the PSOE would agree with us some social measures" merely cosmetic "to decide the broad policy lines with the right".Iglesias says Podemos is not seeking "State ministries" such as Foreign Affairs or Defense, but ministries with social portfolios.

Today begins the investiture debate at the Valencian regional parliament. PSOE agreed on the dead line with Compromís and UP that coalition partners will have a half of the cabinet seats. There are differences on the division of management areas. PSOE candidate Ximo Puig seeks reelection as premier of the Valencian Community, while Compromís leader Mónica Oltra will be the deputy premier. After the 2015 elections Podemos signed a confidence and supply agreement with PSOE and Compromís, but this time UP (Podemos+IU) enters the regional government.

PP candidate in Ceuta and acting mayor-president of the autonomous city Juan Jesús Vivas seals an agreement with the PSOE, rejecting the agreement between PP and Vox national leaderships to govern the municipalities where both parties have a majority. "We don't want to know anything about Vox", said Vivas. Socialists will vote the investiture of the  PP candidate, but they won't enter the local government.

Meanwhile Cs leader in Madrid Igancio Aguado lifted the ban and met with Vox candidate Rocío Monasterio, in order to agree who is the speaker of the Madrid regional assembly and composition of the bureau.This meeting could pave the way for a three way agreement between PP, Cs and Vox.

Cs national leadership warns Castile and León candidate Francisco Igea that PP is the preferential partner for coalitions.

PNV and PSOE sign a deal that could seize 8 municipalities in the Basque Country from EH Bildu
 

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« Reply #723 on: June 13, 2019, 06:20:16 AM »
« Edited: June 13, 2019, 02:07:21 PM by Velasco »

PSOE and UP agreed to negotiate a "government of cooperation"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/11/inenglish/1560259078_292095.html

Quote
After meeting on Tuesday for an hour and 20 minutes, the parties announced they have agreed to negotiate a “government of cooperation.”

Complex negotiations will now begin on the exact nature of this cooperation. For the PSOE, this means negotiating with Iglesias’s party to decide who will take ministerial positions. “We will look for formulas for a plural government with people who are leaders in their fields. [Pablo] Iglesias has told the prime minister that he will consider it. It is an inclusive government, not a closed one like a coalition government,” said PSOE parliamentary spokesperson Adriana Lastra after the meeting.

For Unidas Podemos, it means that they will have a say in who is named minister. At the press conference, Lastra did not rule out the possibility that Iglesias will be part of the executive. “In the last 12 months, we have shown that the left knows how to understand one another,” she said(...)

So "government of cooperation" appears to be a rhetoric compromise solution rather than an innovative formula for governance. Both parties agreed they need to reach an agreement.

As expected, PP and Cs leaders rejected to abstain in the investiture. The goal to achieve an investiture without the cooperation of ERC seems unattainable. After the first round of conversations with the parliamentary groups -excluding EH Bildu and Vox- the socialists reached an agreement with the PRC (Cantabria regionalists). However the spokepersons of the regionalist parties CC (Canaries) ad UPN (Navarre) stated their rejection. In the case of CC, deputy Ana Oramas said again her party will never support any government participated by Podemos, either coalition or programmatic agreement. In the case of UPN, they'll vote against if socialists govern Navarre. So the positions are fixed and we haven't moved from the starting point. Pedro Sánchez can secure 173 votes (3 short from majority) reaching agreements with UP, PNV, Compromís and PRC. In order to be elected in the second investiture vote, it's necessary that at least one of the separatist parties (ERC, JxCAT and EH Bildu) abstains.

The trial of the Catalan separatist leaders at the Supreme Court is remitted for decision. The defendants call for a political solution of the crisis in their final speeches

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/13/inenglish/1560408638_344315.html

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The 12 Catalan separatist leaders on trial for rebellion and other crimes in connection with the unilateral secession attempt of October 2017 made their final statements at the last hearing on Wednesday.

All of them insisted that they are political prisoners on trial because of their ideas. They said their only aim had been to give Catalan citizens a chance to express themselves through a referendum, and called for political dialogue with the central government in Madrid as the only way out of the conflict.

The sentence is expected in October and the political repercussions will be huge. Prosecutors have used tortuous legal arguments to support the charge of rebellion and the existence of the "necessary violence". The defendants admit they are guilty of disobedience, but they tried to minimize the i,importance of the unilateral declaration of independence and the previous events in September and October 2017.

BComú and PSC will negotiate a preliminary agreement that would allow Ada Colau to be reelected as Mayor of Barcelona, with the "unconditional support" of the councilors loyal to Manuel Valls.

Meanwhile Cs confirms its total allegiance to the rightwing bloc. PP, Cs and Vox are aimed at reaching agreements to govern the regions of Madrid and Murcia. In the case of Madrid, the Colón Triumvirate secured the control of the regional assembly's bureau, seizing one seat from Más Madrid to Vox (Errejón said they will appeal to the Constitutional Court). PP and Vox agreed the far right party will be rewarded with some regional secretariats, as Cs still opposes that Vox gets cabinet seats in regional governments. PP and Cs reached a preliminary agreement to govern Castile and León as well., despite the initial reluctance of Cs candidate Francisco Igea.

CC offered the PP to lead regional government in the Canary Islands.

The PP-Cs regional government reached an agreement with Vox in Andalusia that allows to pass this year's budget. It entails concessions on ideological and "cultural battle" affairs, such as renaming gender-based violence (now it's called "domestic violence") or changes in historical memory regarding victims of the Civil War (limitation to "actions in mass graves, recovery and tracking of mass graves and DNA bank") and the "enhancement of the discovery of America and subsequent exploits"
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« Reply #724 on: June 15, 2019, 12:20:02 PM »
« Edited: June 16, 2019, 06:59:04 AM by Velasco »

While at the regional level there will be some variation, at the local level, all 8000+ municipalities will actually have their first town council meeting and elect a mayor this Saturday, from Madrid to the tiniest village with like 5 inhabitants.

José Luis Martínez- Almeida (PP) replaces Manuela Carmena as Mayor of Madrid with the support of PP, Cs and Vox. Begoña Villacís (Cs) will be Deputy Mayor. PP signed separate deals with Cs and Vox. The details are published in media and maybe I could translate some measures tomorrow in case anyone's interested

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2019/06/15/madrid/1560585242_658455.html

There's nothing illegal in the decision to work with Vox, says the new mayor

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/15/spanish-parties-far-right-vox-madrid

Quote
Martínez-Almeida succeeds Manuela Carmena, a leftwing former judge whose four-year stint as mayor was marked by a commitment to diversity and the environment.

The new mayor shrugged off criticism of his party’s decision to work with Vox, challenging anyone “to find anything that lies outside the legal order” in his deals.

But he also promised to serve all the people of Madrid.

“Between us, we will build Madrid,” said Martínez-Almeida. “We won’t leave behind those who want a more open Madrid. We want to write the future and not remember the past.”

Carmena congratulated her successor and reminded him of the importance of both feminism and democracy.

“We need to look after democracy because we know what it cost to bring democracy to this country,” she said. “It took so much, such an effort and so many lives that we cannot forget it.”  


Ada Colau (Barcelona en Comú) reelected Mayor of Barcelona with the support of BComú, PSC and 3 independent councilors of the Manuel Valls list (the 3 Cs councilors abstained)

While Madrid, Zaragoza and the towns in Galicia have been lost, arcelona and Cadiz remain as strongholds of the alternative left (besides Valencia, where Joan Ribó of Compromís was reelected).

"Power to the people": renewables revival in Barcelona and Cádiz

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/14/power-to-the-people-how-spanish-cities-took-control-of-energy

Quote
 After a close fight, Barcelona’s radical mayor, Ada Colau, is expected to take office for a second term on Saturday, vindicating her often-criticised policies, which have included making sure all the city’s municipal buildings and services run on renewable energy.  


In the nearby Badalona the PSC candidate Alex Pastor was elected Mayor with the support of his party, the ERC-Guanyem list of former mayor Dolors Sabater, En Comú Podem and JxCAT. PP candidate and former mayor Xavier García Albiol expected to be elected, as his list came first and there was no alternative coalition to oust him. However Dolors Sabater stepped aside and all the councilors of her list voted for the PSC candidate, despite nationalists got more votes than socialists in elections. García Albiol is well known for his anti-immigrant stances and ran a personalist campaign without PP banners...
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