Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195156 times)
seb_pard
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« Reply #675 on: May 26, 2019, 02:13:11 PM »

I really hope Colau ends un winning.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #676 on: May 26, 2019, 02:17:25 PM »

Exit polls:

Community of Madrid



City of Madrid


Barcelona tie between Colau (Barcelona en Comú) and Maragall (ERC)

Huge win for the left if this is accurate.
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Velasco
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« Reply #677 on: May 26, 2019, 02:20:24 PM »

Barcelona exit poll

ERC 22.5% 10-11 councilors
BCOMU 22% 10-11
PSC 16% 7-8
JXCAT 12.4% 5-6
Manuel Valls- Cs 11.9% 5-6
BCap (ANC, pro-independence) 4.5% 0-2
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seb_pard
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« Reply #678 on: May 26, 2019, 02:22:35 PM »

Barcelona exit poll

ERC 22.5% 10-11 councilors
BCOMU 22% 10-11
PSC 16% 7-8
JXCAT 12.4% 5-6
Manuel Valls- Cs 11.9% 5-6
BCap (ANC, pro-independence) 4.5% 0-2

Wow, anything about PP and la CUP?
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Velasco
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« Reply #679 on: May 26, 2019, 02:30:23 PM »

Barcelona exit poll

ERC 22.5% 10-11 councilors
BCOMU 22% 10-11
PSC 16% 7-8
JXCAT 12.4% 5-6
Manuel Valls- Cs 11.9% 5-6
BCap (ANC, pro-independence) 4.5% 0-2

Wow, anything about PP and la CUP?

Apparently the CUP is on the same percentage as BCap and PP dissapears. Take exit polls with loads of salt. There is concern in the Podemos HQs anyway. Ada Colau is the only "mayor of change" with a decent (but cool) relationship with Pablo Iglesias. Losing Barcelona by such a narrow margin would be a serious setback.  I think the Madrid exit polls are too optimistic, given turnout decrease in the south. UP behind Más Madrid is not good for Iglesias. ..
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seb_pard
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« Reply #680 on: May 26, 2019, 02:44:56 PM »

Barcelona exit poll

ERC 22.5% 10-11 councilors
BCOMU 22% 10-11
PSC 16% 7-8
JXCAT 12.4% 5-6
Manuel Valls- Cs 11.9% 5-6
BCap (ANC, pro-independence) 4.5% 0-2

Wow, anything about PP and la CUP?

Apparently the CUP is on the same percentage as BCap and PP dissapears. Take exit polls with loads of salt. There is concern in the Podemos HQs anyway. Ada Colau is the only "mayor of change" with a decent (but cool) relationship with Pablo Iglesias. Losing Barcelona by such a narrow margin would be a serious setback.  I think the Madrid exit polls are too optimistic, given turnout decrease in the south. UP behind Más Madrid is not good for Iglesias. ..
Yeah I'm listening Cadena SER and you hear consistently that turnout in strong left areas across the country (Vallecas, Valencia, Cadiz, Valencia, etc.) felt today, and this doesn't correlate with the exit polls.

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kaoras
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« Reply #681 on: May 26, 2019, 03:35:35 PM »

Early results seem to indicate a Nationwide PSOE wave
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Skye
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« Reply #682 on: May 26, 2019, 05:07:10 PM »

It seems Carmena has lost.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #683 on: May 26, 2019, 05:07:36 PM »

Early results seem to indicate a Nationwide PSOE wave

Winning the Community of Madrid, but Carmena is trailing in the city with 88% in. Shame.
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Velasco
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« Reply #684 on: May 26, 2019, 05:23:58 PM »

The region of Madrid is too close to call. In 2016 the PP won the last seat at midnight and retained the region by a narrow margin. Then the IU votes were wasted because that list didn't reach the 5% threshold.  The city of Madrid will go to the right and Carmena lost (undeservrdly imo) despite her list came first. The list backed by Pablo Iglesias in the last minute gets less than 3% and no councilors: wasted votes again. Más Madrid gets around 15% and UP is barely above the 5% threshold in regional elections. Angel Gabilondo could be a great Madrid premier, but Isabel Diaz Ayuso has chances.

In Barcelona ERC beats BCOMU by a 0.7% margin !

Excellent results for the PSOE anyway
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🦀🎂🦀🎂
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« Reply #685 on: May 26, 2019, 05:39:42 PM »

imagine telling someone a year ago that the PSOE will control La Rioja but not Andalusia
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #686 on: May 26, 2019, 06:05:10 PM »

Ok, with all the data we have in here are the communities where I would argue we need to watch future alliances.

Castille-Leon: PP-Cs have a majority (without Vox) but PSOE topped the poll. It's not inconcievable that Cs goes with PSOE, but it's very unlikely. Still it's a possibility worth watching

Aragon: The combined right (PP-Cs-Vox-PAR) has a narrow majority but PAR is a right-regionalist party which might not be happy doing deals with Vox. If there's a community where a PSOE-Cs deal will happen, it's here.

Canary Islands: In pure Thanos fashion, the islands gave a tied result between the right and left (again, as 2015 already saw a perfect tie). However this time PSOE beats CC both in terms of seats and the popular vote. Common wisdom would assume a PSOE-CC deal with a PSOE but relations between the 2 are quite damaged. Another scenario is the left-insularist ASG propping up a CC-PP-Cs government. Truly bad result in my home region Sad

Worth noting only 73% of the vote is in here, so this could change

The region of Madrid is too close to call. In 2016 the PP won the last seat at midnight and retained the region by a narrow margin. Then the IU votes were wasted because that list didn't reach the 5% threshold.  The city of Madrid will go to the right and Carmena lost (undeservrdly imo) despite her list came first. The list backed by Pablo Iglesias in the last minute gets less than 3% and no councilors: wasted votes again. Más Madrid gets around 15% and UP is barely above the 5% threshold in regional elections. Angel Gabilondo could be a great Madrid premier, but Isabel Diaz Ayuso has chances.

In Barcelona ERC beats BCOMU by a 0.7% margin !

Excellent results for the PSOE anyway

Eh, I'd call it already for the right.

Madrid seems to have a left counting bias for some reason (with left wing areas counting earlier), and PP-Cs-Vox already have a majority. It's pretty much over.

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kaoras
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« Reply #687 on: May 26, 2019, 06:17:54 PM »

Also, LOL at Vox at the european elections, they almost managed to lost half of its share in one month.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #688 on: May 26, 2019, 06:24:21 PM »

Well, after the Andalusian elections and especially after the general elections I had been predicting some sort of "realignment" where PSOE would collapse in the South (though might have held through deals with Cs) while winning landslides in peripheral Spain and getting nice results in Madrid and the north.

Apparently that hasn't happened and they have overall majorities in Castille-La Mancha and Extremadura lol

Not only that, but these are the first PSOE overall majorities anywhere since 2007!
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Velasco
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« Reply #689 on: May 27, 2019, 11:42:32 AM »

Cs is trying to buy time. The orange party will create a committee to consider the possibility of deals with the PSOE in regions like Castilla y León, Aragon or Murcia. However, the deals with PP and Vox in Madrid are still on the table. In case Vox demands seats in regional and local governments, Cs will be in trouble. Cs candidate Begoña Villacis suggested that, in order to prevent Vox influence, PSOE should back her as mayor of Madrid instead of Manuela Carmena. The acting mayor conceded defeat on election night (despite she came first), ruled out deals with Cs and announced she quits politics.

Manuel Valls threatens to break relations with Cs in case the Albert Rivera party deals with Vox in Madrid. His platform Barcelona pel Canvi ("Barcelona for Change") won 6 seats in the Barcelona City Hall: Valls and other two councilors are independents (one of them is Celestino Corbacho, a former Labour minister with Zapatero). There is a possibility to orevent thst ERC candidate Ernrst Maragall becomes the next Barcelona mayor. ERC and Ada Colau's party BCOMU are tied at 10 councilors. A deal with ERC and JxCAT could represent the political death of Colau, but the acting mayor could try a deal with the PSC. BCOMU and PSC add 18 councilors and majority is set at 21. In case Manuel Valls and the other two independent councilors allow a coalition between BCOMU and PSC without taking part in government, there is a possibility to prevent that Barcelona has a separatist mayor. It won't be easy as there is an ideological abyss between 'neoliberal' Valls and 'populist' Colau.
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Velasco
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« Reply #690 on: May 28, 2019, 03:50:17 PM »

Nice precinct map of the local elections in Barcelona,  a very tight contest in a city of fascinating electoral geography. Clickable, of course

https://m.eldiario.es/catalunya/MAPA-Consulta-municipales-Barcelona-calle_0_903959951.html
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #691 on: May 29, 2019, 01:32:06 PM »

Nice precinct map of the local elections in Barcelona,  a very tight contest in a city of fascinating electoral geography. Clickable, of course

https://m.eldiario.es/catalunya/MAPA-Consulta-municipales-Barcelona-calle_0_903959951.html


Huh, interesting that the few Cs precincts (lolvalls, btw) are enclaved into ERC's general area of strength. Since those are the two parties most far apart from each other, I'd have assumed their voters lived further apart.

More generally, can you explain the sociological patterns for those who aren't familiar to Barcelona's geography?
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windjammer
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« Reply #692 on: May 30, 2019, 07:52:38 AM »

Any news about the elections?
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Velasco
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« Reply #693 on: May 30, 2019, 08:03:34 AM »
« Edited: May 30, 2019, 11:10:23 AM by Velasco »

Nice precinct map of the local elections in Barcelona,  a very tight contest in a city of fascinating electoral geography. Clickable, of course

https://m.eldiario.es/catalunya/MAPA-Consulta-municipales-Barcelona-calle_0_903959951.html


Huh, interesting that the few Cs precincts (lolvalls, btw) are enclaved into ERC's general area of strength. Since those are the two parties most far apart from each other, I'd have assumed their voters lived further apart.

More generally, can you explain the sociological patterns for those who aren't familiar to Barcelona's geography?

The precincts where the Valls list came first are located in the wealthiest part of Barcelona, corresponding to the municipal district of Sarrià-Sant Gervasi and part of Les Corts. These affluent neighbourhoods vote consistently to right-wing parties, traditionally CiU and PP. If you look closely, you'll notice there are a few deep blue precincts surrounded by the orange: they were won by the JxCAT list (the heirs of CiU, the Catalan nationalist right). Cs has replaced largely the declining PP and ERC is making inroads into the traditional CiU base. The ERC strong places correspond mostly to middle class neighbourhoods, namely the Eixample district (XIX Century enlargement), Gràcia (former independent municipality incorpoated to Barcelona, traditionally left-wing and very nationalist, gentrified) , Les Corts, Guinardò and so on. BComú is stronger in the old quarterof Barcelona (Ciutat Vella), as well in old working-class and popular neighbourhoods like Poblenou or Sant Martí. The best places for the PSC are peripheral working-class neighbourhoods which were built to house immigrants from other arts of Spain and are the most deprived areas of the city. I have an income map by neoghbourhood that might be helpful to illustrate socio-economic patterns:

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windjammer
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« Reply #694 on: May 30, 2019, 08:06:41 AM »

Now with the regional results, what is going to happen?
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Velasco
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« Reply #695 on: May 30, 2019, 09:09:19 AM »
« Edited: May 30, 2019, 10:04:26 AM by Velasco »

Now with the regional results, what is going to happen?

Yesterday Manuel Valls made an interesting move in Barcelona, offering his votes in the City Hall to back BComú and PSC with Ada Colau as mayor. This support is unconditional: the only purpose is to prevent that separatist Ernest Maragall (ERC) becomes mayor. ERC won narrowly the local elections in Barcelona and is tied with BComú at 10 councilors, while PSC won 8, Valls 6 (3 Cs, 3 independent), JxCAT 5 and PP 2. Cs national leadership reacted with visible displeasure to the Valls offer; party spokepersons stated they don't support 'populists' like Ada Colau. The Valls move has left Cs leadership misplaced, because it's not easy to justify the opposition to a move aimed to prevent a separatist local government in Barcelona. Cs leadership is saying now that PSC candidate Jaume Collboni would be more acceptable, despite Albert Rivera deems the Catalan Socialists as a "nationalist" force. Cs and Albert Rivera are engaged in a turn to the right that in all likelihood will end with a deal with PP and Vox in Madrid. Valls said on the very election night that deals between Cs and Vox will entail his emancipation. On the other hand, Ada Colau didn't reject explicitly the Valls offer. However BComú spokepersons say their priority is a left-wing agreement with ERC and PSC and reject talks with Valls and JxCAT. The problem is that ERC and PSC are in opposite sides on the national question and veto each other. ERC candidate Maragall favours an agreement with BComú and JxCAT.

In another interesting move, Íñigo Errejón (Más Madrid) stated that he's open to talk with PSOE and Cs in order to prevent that PP and Vox govern the city and the region of Madrid. It's a declaration of intent, not a detailed proposal. He's saying that a PSOE-Cs deal is far from being an ideal scenario, but it's preferable to a government of the corrupt PP with the support of the far right. In short: both Valls and Errejón and advocating the lesser evil and are breaking the dynamic of the opposite blocs, forcing the other parties to make a choice and show their contradictions. On the other hand, Vox is demanding posts in local and regional governments. The far right party won't accept a subsidiary role, supporting a PP-Cs governments from the outside as it happened in Andalusia. Vox decreased in local and regional elections, but wants to assert its decisive seats. This demand displeases Cs especially; oranges will try to press on the far right to accept a deal similar to Andalusia. But Vox is threatening to let the left govern. There is a small chance to Manuela Carmena in case rightwing parties don't reach a deal, because Spanish legislation says the list coming first gets the mayoralty in case there's no alternative majority. Similarly ERC candidate Ernest Maragall will be the next mayor of Barcelona in case BComú and PSC don't conform an alternative majority with the 3 independent councilors of the Valls list. I think the right will end governing Madrid and the materialization of alternative majorities in Barcelona is very difficult. Anyway things are becoming interesting.

Pedro Sánchez and Macron had a meeting in Paris that might not be unrelated with the valls move in Barcelona, according to some analysts. Timmermans attended a PSC-PSOE campaign act in Barcelona. The S&D candidate is aware of the political situation in Catalonia.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #696 on: May 30, 2019, 09:27:45 AM »

Cs national leadership reacted with visible displeasure to the Valls offer; party spokepersons stated they don't support 'populists' like Ada Colau.

That's... ironic... Smiley
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #697 on: May 30, 2019, 10:19:31 AM »

Now with the regional results, what is going to happen?

Well, I've long defended that if we are to assume that a left wing PSOE-UP government of some sort is going to happen, the kingmakers are UPN/NA+, CC and/or the secessionists. Navarra and the Canary Islands held regional elections so let's look at them

In Navarra, PSOE has a tough choice to make. Either they can abstain and allow a UPN minority government, or they can rule themselves with the abstention of Bildu and support from everyone else. Both options might be good though, though the latter seems better as it might convince Bildu to abstain nationally as well, which would be easier I guess.

PNV is also saying that they won't support PSOE nationally unless they go with a progressive government in Navarra (ie, one led by PSOE and supported by GBai and Podemos and IU). I don't think PNV is hardline enough to actually vote down a Sánchez government unless it's clear it's failing, but that's what they claim.

On that note, it was widely expected that ERC and Bildu would form a joint parliamentary group in Congress after the election. However, that seems to have been dropped. That means that it's possible that ERC abstains and Bildu votes against (or viceversa). Their votes won't be as linked, though it's still very likely that they'll vote together in most stuff.

Meanwhile the Canarian election ended in a clusterf*** with the tiny Gomera Socialist Group (an insular party) as kingmaker having to decide between a left wing PSOE-UP-NCa coalition or a right wing CC-PP-Cs one. Either that or a PSOE-CC grand coalition.

Or at least that's what it seemed in paper. After the election, both PSOE and PP seem to be seriously considering the possibility of a PSOE-PP coalition!

Remember Spain has absolutely no tradition of grand coalitions or PSOE-PP alliances, with the only example at the regional level being the Basque Country in 2009 (which isn't exactly a role model as Clavijo is not Ibarretxe and CC is not 2009's PNV, who was actively pushing for secession!)

CC similarly is rejecting any notion of supporting Sánchez nationally, not even with a minority PSOE government (as opposed to a proper PSOE-UP coalition)

As of now I think the most likely scenario is still a left wing coalition, but if PSOE-PP really go for it it would be unprecedented.

At the national level I believe the likeliest scenario is a PSOE-UP deal of some sort with a Bildu and/or ERC abstention and both UPN and CC voting against.

Cs has also been softening to PSOE but I can't see them doing a coalition with Sánchez or abstaining
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Velasco
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« Reply #698 on: May 30, 2019, 10:24:16 AM »
« Edited: May 30, 2019, 10:45:49 AM by Velasco »

Cs national leadership reacted with visible displeasure to the Valls offer; party spokepersons stated they don't support 'populists' like Ada Colau.

That's... ironic... Smiley

The Ada Colau party has many internal contradictions (basically on the national question), but nothing comparable to the impossible reconciliation between liberal values and cooperation with the illiberal Vox, the Spanish branch of Trump International. I think oranges will get increasingly entangled in their inconsistency.

On the other hand I think Ada Colau should consider the Valls offer, because losing the Barecelona mayoralty would entail the end of her political career and the death of her political force. The results of her party outside the city of Barcelona were horrible, disappearing in places like Terrassa or Sabadell (formerly strongplaces for the PSUC and ICV)
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windjammer
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« Reply #699 on: May 30, 2019, 10:31:00 AM »

Lol, so Sanchez isn't going to pass a budget and new elections will be held in less than 2 years!!!
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