Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195099 times)
windjammer
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« Reply #600 on: April 30, 2019, 06:19:35 PM »

Any comments made by bildu? They will determine whether Sanchez will be able to govern or not after all.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #601 on: April 30, 2019, 06:47:36 PM »

Any comments made by bildu? They will determine whether Sanchez will be able to govern or not after all.

Apparently they have said they will have the exact same position as ERC and will vote the same in Sánchez's confidence vote.

Beyond that they seem to be giving mixed signals. On one hand they claim they will support (or at least not oppose) Sánchez. On the other, they are asking for a referendum (presumably not just in Catalonia but also the Basque Country). They do seem to have some constructive rethoric but I certainly don't trust them at all.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/29/actualidad/1556549260_730422.html

https://www.lavanguardia.com/local/paisvasco/20190430/461968425827/otegi-eh-bildu-referendum-pedro-sanchez-gobierno-psoe-presidente-erc.html

I guess the situation will be similar to what happened before. They abstain on Sánchez's confidence vote, but then Sánchez's budget and important laws won't pass and we will go to an early election in 2021 or so.

A more interesting route seems to be this one instead:

ERC and JxCat included 4 people currently in prison and in so-called exile on their election lists, which have all taken a seat. These people, unless they renounce their seats, won't be able to swear in and sit in parliament.

That means that the majority for Sánchez to become president and pass laws will go down. With 4 seats less, that means a 346 member parliament effectively; with 174 seats required for a majority.

Coincidentally, Sánchez and his "comfortable" allies (Podemos, PNV, Compromís and PRC) add up to 173.

At that point Bildu and ERC would no longer be the kingmakers but instead that could also be the Canarian Coalition. They have said they won't support a joint Sánchez-Podemos government or one dependent on secessionists, but they could support a minority Sánchez government. If CC abstained, the vote would become 173 yes-171 no-2 abstain-4 not voting

So if the Catalans don't take their seats a la Sinn Fein, that's another option.

Finally, I've seen nothing from UPN, which would be the final option. They ran alongside Cs and PP in a joint list, but they are still an independent party after all.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #602 on: April 30, 2019, 07:54:08 PM »

Finally a European election that is a significant rebuke of fascists!

Well, they entered the legislature for the first time since Franco dictatorship. Not a resounding victory.

If I can make an analogy, it's kind of like being served an ice cream sundae. But instead of whipped cream, it came with sour cream.
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Velasco
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« Reply #603 on: April 30, 2019, 08:27:44 PM »
« Edited: April 30, 2019, 08:31:52 PM by Velasco »

Should we discard the possibility of a coalition altogether, then?

No. As I said in a previous post, the upcoming elections in May (EP, regional and local) will delay coalition building and creation of majorities. PSOE and Podemos will engage a long negotiation that will end in some kind of agreement, either confidence and suppply or coalition government. Sánchez and the PSOE want a minority government with "progressive independents"; Iglesias and UP demand a coalition. Nothing will be solved before the elections, so it makes little sense to speculate or make predictions at this early stage.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #604 on: April 30, 2019, 11:33:37 PM »



Two most shocking shifts in my opinion are the relative  lack of non-participant-> Vox transfers (with most of their voters being formally from PP) and the comparatively large Podemos -> others (regionalists) transfer. Both shifts though were already partially visible on the swing map, which with the Basque/Catalans shifting away from the left block and Andalusia being the only state with consistent right wing swings.
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Velasco
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« Reply #605 on: May 01, 2019, 02:27:37 AM »

Two most shocking shifts in my opinion are the relative  lack of non-participant-> Vox transfers (with most of their voters being formally from PP) and the comparatively large Podemos -> others (regionalists) transfer. Both shifts though were already partially visible on the swing map, which with the Basque/Catalans shifting away from the left block and Andalusia being the only state with consistent right wing swings.

"Others" are neither Catalan nationalists nor PNV, since these parties appear separately in the graph. It must be a transfer from UP to EH Bildu, other regionalists like Compromís and other parties like PACMA. However, I don't see large transfers of non-participants and UP (ECP) or CDC to ERC and the 385k increase didn't come from nowhere. Maybe there's some error in the graph.

PSOE manages to mobilize the largest number of non-participants, as well there's a large transfer from UP. However the graph shows very littletransfer from Cs to PSOE. Of course Vox is one of the main reasons of the PP collapse, but the transfer from PP to Cs is large too. The little amount of the transfers between Cs and Vox is somewhat surprising, as well as the low numbers coming from abstention.

The CIS post-election survey will be released soon and it will provide info about vote transfers and other issues.

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rob in cal
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« Reply #606 on: May 01, 2019, 11:10:43 AM »

  Its amazing to see the urban vote, especially broken down by district. In the cities, aside from Barcelona and Bilboa, there are so few areas that we see in other western democracies where the parties of the left absolutely dominate, crush the opposition. Instead, they win a lot of districts just getting 55% or less of the vote.
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Velasco
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« Reply #607 on: May 01, 2019, 07:44:34 PM »

Wondeful map of results by precinct nationwide, similar to that map of the 2016 elections linked in a previous page of this thread.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/05/01/actualidad/1556730293_254945.html

This time my precinct voted as follows:

PSOE 31%, UP 24%, PP 14%, Cs 12%, Vox 6%, CC 3%, Others 10% (presumably NC and PACMA have most of this share)

Nice image from Galicia


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Former President tack50
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« Reply #608 on: May 02, 2019, 03:21:28 AM »

My precinct for comparison is much weaker for the left:

PSOE: 22%
Cs: 20%
PP: 18%
UP: 18%
Vox: 10%
CC: 4%
Others (mostly NCa+PACMA): 7%

Also, El Confidencial posted an analysis of the differences between Cs voters and PP voters. This isn't exactly new information but it's still very interesting to see.

1: PP wins in rural areas (municipalities below 10k inhabitants), Cs wins in urban areas (municipaliteis above 10k, and especially above 50k)

2: PP performs better among older people, Cs performs better among young people

3: More interestingly, Cs beats PP among rich people, while poorer places tend to vote PP

4: Cs beats PP in places with higher rates of college graduates

5: Cs beats PP among men, while PP performs better with women.

PP's vote seems to have become ruralized, feminized and pensionized according to the analysis. They also gave us a really nice map which does say a lot

Map: https://www.ecestaticos.com/file/73432f701818d283ec7efaa1557b390b/1556725218-20190501maparesultadosmunicipiosppcs-01.png

https://www.elconfidencial.com/elecciones-generales/2019-05-01/pp-ciudadanos-mujeres-pensionistas-sorpasso_1976170/

Posting only a link as posting the map itself pretty much breaks Atlas.

With a handful of exceptions (most notably the "nationalist" regions), the map is quite clear, showing Cs winning in urban and specially suburban areas while PP wins in rural areas.

Madrid province in particular is the funniest example; with Madrid city itself voting PP, the suburban areas around it voting Cs, and the rural areas voting PP.
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Ethelberth
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« Reply #609 on: May 02, 2019, 04:05:10 AM »

Is Aragonia, really that urban.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #610 on: May 02, 2019, 11:53:19 AM »


Yes and no. Most of the population is actually concentrated in Zaragoza city, but the rest of the region has extremely low population density, particularly Teruel. Southern Aragon (alongside neighbouring areas from Castille-Leon and Castille-La Mancha) has a population density comparable to Lapland!

Cs does perform strongly in certain rural areas, but PP id much stronger in the rurals at-large
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Velasco
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« Reply #611 on: May 03, 2019, 03:09:51 AM »

Another precinct map, more complete and with a lot of interesting info

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-barrios-pobres-militares-barrio_0_894861358.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #612 on: May 03, 2019, 03:18:28 AM »
« Edited: May 04, 2019, 03:34:59 AM by Velasco »

A couple of maps made by myself

Leading party by province (majority). Circles are municipalities with more than 100000 inhabitants.


Largest bloc by province (majority).


Bloc results:

Left (PSOE, UP, ECP, Compromís) 43.65%

Right (PP, Cs, VOX, NA+) 43.23%

Catalan nationalists (ERC, JxCAT, FR) 6.23%

Basque nationalists (EAJ-PNV, EH Bildu, GBai) 2.58%
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #613 on: May 03, 2019, 06:34:16 AM »

Remember that one muslim party who was really close to getting a seat in Melilla until like 80% of the vote was counted? Coalición por Melilla (CpM)

Well, apparently they have been banned from participating in the regional/local elections there because of not respecting men-women parity.

Spanish law mandates that in every block of 5 candidates in the list there must be a 3-2 split either way, but CpM's list had 4-1 splits on blocks 11-15 and 16-20. The election authorities as a response have blocked CpM from taking part in the election.

This is very big news, as CpM is currently the main opposition in Melilla, and had a big chance of becoming the next local government. With CpM out of the picture, Melilla seems very likely to remain in PP's hands, with PSOE probably going up and the muslims there abstaining (though many will vote PSOE I guess). CpM of course is suing the election authorities, so maybe they will be let in, who knows.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/30/actualidad/1556652352_178997.html

They are apparently also suing for the general election results, claiming that there was fraud. Just like Vox (who has also been making some noise about fraud), I expect their lawsuit to go nowhere.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #614 on: May 03, 2019, 03:06:07 PM »


Bloc results:

Left (PSOE, UP, ECP, Compromís) 43.65%

Right (PP, Cs, VOX, NA+) 43.23%

Catalan nationalists (ERC, JxCAT, FR) 6.23%

Basque nationalists (EAJ-PNV, EH Bildu, GBai) 2.58%

Fascinating how the two main blocs are basically tied nationwide but the Right is ahead almost everywhere. It's not even just a population density thing, since the Right is ahead in Madrid and some of the relatively dense coastal areas. A lot of it is probably because the national right is so nonexistent in Catalonia and Euskadi.
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Velasco
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« Reply #615 on: May 04, 2019, 02:05:29 AM »
« Edited: May 04, 2019, 03:44:39 AM by Velasco »

Bloc results:
Fascinating how the two main blocs are basically tied nationwide but the Right is ahead almost everywhere. It's not even just a population density thing, since the Right is ahead in Madrid and some of the relatively dense coastal areas. A lot of it is probably because the national right is so nonexistent in Catalonia and Euskadi.

Yes, Catalonia and Basque Country make the difference for the Left.

Bloc results in Catalonia were: Nationalists 39.4%, Left 38.1%, Right 20%, The Basque Country was even worse for the Right, as it lost parliamentary representation: Nationalists 47.7%, Left 37.5%, Right 12.8%.

Regarding the rest of Spain the results were mixed. Much of the inland Spain is depopulated, with the exception of Madrid. But, as you say, it's not only a matter of population density.

Andalusia is the largest Spanish region by population and is the traditional stronghold of the Left. However, the region is shifting progressively to the right and it was lost for the PSOE in December 2018 after 37 years of continued hegemony. The Left recovered in comaprison with the last regional election, particularly the PSOE. Recovery was limited, though: Left 48.5%, Right 48.3%

Madrid is the third largest region by population after Andalusia and Catalonia: Left 43.5% and Right 53.4%. The reelection as Mayor of my personal favourite Manuela Carmena will be an uphill battle, as the margin in the city of Madrid is similar.

To compensate the Andalusia's shift, the Left has recovered ground in the Valencian Community (4th largest region by population). The Left governs since 2015, after many years of PP rule and massive corruption scandals. There was a leftwing majority in regional elections and a tie between blocs in general elections: Left 48.5%, Right 48.6% .

The result in Galicia is noticeable as well, as this region is another traditional PP stronghold. The Left got 46.6%, the Right 43.8% and leftwing nationalists 6.8%. To the contrary, the Right won in traditional PSOE strongholds like Extremadura (L 47.6%, R 50.1%).

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Ethelberth
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« Reply #616 on: May 04, 2019, 03:52:03 AM »

Which area are strongholds of CC in Canaries? BNG used to be "promising" in Galicia, but it has nowadays medicore support. Is that due the PODEMOS.
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« Reply #617 on: May 04, 2019, 05:32:49 AM »

Any post-election surveys that highlight demographic preference of the electorate? I assume that contrary to other right-wing populist outfits, Vox did not do as well among the working class?
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windjammer
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« Reply #618 on: May 04, 2019, 06:37:01 AM »

Have the canarians said anything?
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Velasco
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« Reply #619 on: May 04, 2019, 07:49:34 AM »

Any post-election surveys that highlight demographic preference of the electorate? I assume that contrary to other right-wing populist outfits, Vox did not do as well among the working class?

CIS post-election survey will be released within a few days. Precinct results point that Vox is more popular in affluent neighbourhoods.


CC doesn't want deals with Podemos or Vox
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #620 on: May 04, 2019, 08:02:01 AM »

Which area are strongholds of CC in Canaries? BNG used to be "promising" in Galicia, but it has nowadays medicore support. Is that due the PODEMOS.

Well, first of all, here are the results of the 2015 regional election as a start (with the map shamelessly stolen from Velasco)



CC's strongest support is in the island of El Hierro (in fact, I'm surprised they did not keep their Senator there!). Technically CC doesn't run there, but AHI (Agrupación Herreña Independiente); though by all intents and purposes AHI may as well be part of CC, that's only a technicality. However, el Hierro is tiny, so they need more votes.

CC also gets a lot of support from Tenerife, particularly rural areas in Tenerife. They also get strong support in Fuerteventura and some parts of La Palma.

Their weakest support by contrast is located in La Gomera (which is the personal fiefdom of Casimiro Curbelo, the local cacique) and Gran Canaria (CC is seen as the "party of Tenerife" and NC as the "party of Gran Canaria" to some extent). Las Palmas de Gran Canaria in particular (the largest city in the islands) is a black hole for CC where they get horrible results.

As for other parties, PSOE gets very spread out resultsm (with southern Tenerife, a touristy area, being their best result?). PP gets its best results in rural Gran Canaria and to a lesser extent La Palma. NCa gets its best results in the GC-1 corridor in Gran Canaria. Podemos gets its best results in Las Palmas city. I imagine Cs gets its best results in comfy upper middle class suburban areas in Las Palmas. And of course ASG gets its entire support from La Gomera for obvious reasons.

As for BNG, they have gone up, but as you say Podemos stole a lot of their votes. However infighting between En Marea and Podemos proper in Galicia has allowed BNG to go up and get most of the nationalist voters that used to support Podemos in Galicia.


As Velasco said, they have said they don't want deals with Vox, Podemos or the secessionists (I imagine their ideal government would be PSOE-Cs with them as kingmakers).

However, I imagine much of their strategy will also depend on the results of the regional election.

If the Canary Islands elect a PSOE led government, they will provably not support Sánchez and go full opposition. If CC does form a government again though; especially if it's a CC-PSOE government, they will probably support Sánchez or at least abstain.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #621 on: May 04, 2019, 08:07:37 AM »

Also, Sociométrica released some interesting data regarding the gender composition of both parties.

In general, PSOE and PP (the old 2 party system) get better results among women. Cs gets slightly better results among men but is the closest to a 50-50 split. And Podemos and Vox get their support overwhelmingly from men.

I guess men are just more extremist and women are moderate heroines? Also I wonder if the fact that PP and PSOE lead among women while the "new parties" lead among men is somehow a function of age (with women living longer and being generally older; as old voters do clearly show a preference for PP-PSOE)



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Skye
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« Reply #622 on: May 04, 2019, 08:12:28 AM »

A couple of maps made by myself

Leading party by province (majority). Circles are municipalities with more than 100000 inhabitants.


Largest bloc by province (majority).


Bloc results:

Left (PSOE, UP, ECP, Compromís) 43.65%

Right (PP, Cs, VOX, NA+) 43.23%

Catalan nationalists (ERC, JxCAT, FR) 6.23%

Basque nationalists (EAJ-PNV, EH Bildu, GBai) 2.58%

I was compiling these results myself, and I'd like to know where would we put some minor regional parties. Gbai, PRC, En Marea, BNG? Like, where do they fit?
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windjammer
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« Reply #623 on: May 04, 2019, 08:42:46 AM »

I looked at the polls for the canarian elections ans I guess the likeliest result right now would be some kind of Canarian-PSOE-the other center left party coalition?
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #624 on: May 04, 2019, 09:23:31 AM »

I looked at the polls for the canarian elections ans I guess the likeliest result right now would be some kind of Canarian-PSOE-the other center left party coalition?

Well, we haven't had a proper poll since May 2018 so who knows. Even if you want to count the Electopanel (which mind you is not a proper poll!) that one is still before the general election and actually predicted a tiny right wing majority: 34-36

We will at the very least get more Electopaneles, but those are not proper polls. CIS also releases one poll for regional elections, and we might also get a proper private poll by one of the 2 largest newspapers (Canarias7 or La Provincia+La Opinión de Tenerife).

Either way, the race will be incredibly tight. And it looks like any left wing majority will be dependent on ASG, the party of Casimiro Curbelo, which is not exactly 100% reliable (though I guess he will support the left if you bribe him invest enough in La Gomera)

The general election didn't clear up much as PSOE and UP did go up by a lot, but NCa collapsed and CC also went up by a lot. Finally Vox didn't really get a good result.

My predictions for government formation:

If PSOE-UP-NCa-ASG get a majority, that will be the government that gets formed

If CC-PP-Cs get a majority, that will be the government that gets formed

If the 2 blocs are tied or the right wins but depends on Vox (remember CC can't really do deals with Vox), then a PSOE-CC grand coalition gets formed, maybe dependent on ASG, NCa or Cs if they are in a minority. At that point whoever gets the most seats will be the next premier (with CC benefiting a lot from the electoral system).
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