Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[mileslunn]

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox

Results in Madrid seem big deal for left as usually it votes right.  Ceuta going Vox is no surprise and I suspect they will win Melilla too.  That is ground zero for illegal immigration so makes a lot of sense.

Can someone explain why two cities in Africa are enthusiastic supporters of the party that is campaigning against Africans? It seems that if Africans creep you out maybe, you know, Africa is not the best place to live.

Most living there are Spaniards not Africans and they have a real problem with illegal immigration.  Since these are the only two enclaves in mainland Africa that are part of the EU and there are no internal border controls in mainland Europe once you get into those if not caught you can go anywhere in Europe.  They get far more illegal immigration than elsewhere in Spain.  Same reason why some of the strongest supporters of tough on illegal immigration in US live right along the Mexican border.  You see it more so more of an issue than those further away where it impacts their lives less.

[Walmart_shopper]

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox

Melila goes PP

Extramadura
5 PSOE
2 PP
2 Vox
1 C's

Galicia
9-10 PSOE
8 PP
2-3 Podemos
2 C's
1Vox

I have no clue what is happening in Castle and Leon, which is Spain's Catholic and right wing heartland. Madrid also looks surprisingly poor for Vox, where they were expected to do quote well.

Also, as I expected, the Catalonian turnout surge did end up helping the Socialists perhaps more than anyone else in the region.

What do you mean? The right seems to be doing fine in Castile and Leon.

The PP and PSOE are tied and Vox only nets 2 seats. Given the usual dominance of the PP there that is a really bad result for not only the PP but the whole rightist bloc.

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox

Results in Madrid seem big deal for left as usually it votes right.  Ceuta going Vox is no surprise and I suspect they will win Melilla too.  That is ground zero for illegal immigration so makes a lot of sense.

Can someone explain why two cities in Africa are enthusiastic supporters of the party that is campaigning against Africans? It seems that if Africans creep you out maybe, you know, Africa is not the best place to live.

On top of inmigration being a huge issue over there for obvious reasons, they also have very high military populations

[Diouf]

Now that we have seen Hello Kitty in Gran Canaria, the results can officially start coming in!

[DavidB.]

Votedump seems disproportionately from Basque Country.

[Mike88]

4.2% in:

28.4% PSOE
19.0% PP
10.8% C's
11.5% UP
  7.9% Vox

[Walmart_shopper]

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox

Results in Madrid seem big deal for left as usually it votes right.  Ceuta going Vox is no surprise and I suspect they will win Melilla too.  That is ground zero for illegal immigration so makes a lot of sense.

Can someone explain why two cities in Africa are enthusiastic supporters of the party that is campaigning against Africans? It seems that if Africans creep you out maybe, you know, Africa is not the best place to live.

They are Spaniards living on the edge of North Africa, not "Africans".

Right. But they are living in autonomous Spanish cities in Africa.

[mileslunn]

4.2% in:

28.4% PSOE
19.0% PP
10.8% C's
11.5% UP
  7.9% Vox

What part of the country are these from?  It seems PSOE and PP getting about what polls suggested, but other three especially Vox way under.  Off course depending on what part of the country these are from may not be representative at all.

[parochial boy]

4.2% in:

28.4% PSOE
19.0% PP
10.8% C's
11.5% UP
  7.9% Vox

What part of the country are these from?  It seems PSOE and PP getting about what polls suggested, but other three especially Vox way under.  Off course depending on what part of the country these are from may not be representative at all.

All over, but Basques, Aragon, Castilla y Leon and Asturias have counted th most

[Walmart_shopper]

Vox with a whopping one seat in Almeria right now.

[Oryxslayer]

4.2% in:

28.4% PSOE
19.0% PP
10.8% C's
11.5% UP
  7.9% Vox

What part of the country are these from?  It seems PSOE and PP getting about what polls suggested, but other three especially Vox way under.  Off course depending on what part of the country these are from may not be representative at all.

 From El pais. Grey is Separatist. Looks like Aragon is counting the fastest.

[Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)]

Votedump seems disproportionately from Basque Country.

Indeed. With PNV at 7% and Bildu at 4.5% that's pretty much a given. The Basque Country is pretty fast at counting votes

[Tender Branson]

It looks as if the "exit polls" were mostly correct.

I don't see VOX overperforming the polls based on these early numbers and they will likely end up with ca. 10-12% in the end.

[Oryxslayer]

As of this moment, PSOE+C's has 175. Expect that to change.

Basque County is at 34% Counted, so yeah, votes are biased towards that party of the county right now.

[jeron]

Votedump seems disproportionately from Basque Country.

Indeed. With PNV at 7% and Bildu at 4.5% that's pretty much a given. The Basque Country is pretty fast at counting votes

Basque country has already counted one third of the vote

[jaichind]

With 10.56% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.53%
PP       17.42%
C        12.18%
UP       11.90%
VOX      8.59%

[Tender Branson]

I just realized that I made a major mistake with my prediction for VOX at 16-17% Spain-wide ...

VOX is virtually non-existant in the population-rich Catalunya and the Basque country, which is dragging down their national share of course. VOX would have needed 20% in the rest of Spain, if they are non-existant in these regions.

[mileslunn]

I noticed only 325 seats are given, are the other 25 having no results is that why?  For left I show 156 so 20 seats shy, while right is 135 which is 41 seats shy so won't both of those numbers go up as those shows a lot in neither group?

[Walmart_shopper]

I noticed only 325 seats are given, are the other 25 having no results is that why?  For left I show 156 so 20 seats shy, while right is 135 which is 41 seats shy so won't both of those numbers go up as those shows a lot in neither group?

Use the el Pais site.

[jeron]

Vox with a whopping one seat in Almeria right now.

And PSOE in the lead in Ceuta

[We Made PA Blue Again!]

With 10.56% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.53%
PP       17.42%
C        12.18%
UP       11.90%
VOX      8.59%

So so far we're looking at an overperformance for the Socialists and underperformance for the far-right.

[jaichind]

With 10.56% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.53%
PP       17.42%
C        12.18%
UP       11.90%
VOX      8.59%

So so far we're looking at an overperformance for the Socialists and underperformance for the far-right.

C usually gets stronger as the count goes on so I think C will increase the most from here.

[Walmart_shopper]

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

[jaichind]

With 17.01% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.69%
PP       16.99%
C        13.05%
UP       11.98%
VOX      8.97%

[Mike88]

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

And PP!! The margin between them and C's is narrowing, and UP is less than 2% behind them.