Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

Some takes from the 2016 map

Madrid: PP wins in the wealthy districts along the Paseo de la Castellana, getting more than 80% of the vote in some precincts located in the Salamanca district. Unidos Podemos wins in emblematic neighbourhoods of the Madrid centre such as the multicultural Lavapiés (Podemos birthplace), Chueca (the LGTB quarter) and Malasaña (nightlife)

Barcelona: The red belt around Barcelona turned purple in the 2015 and 2016 elections. En Comú Podem was the winning party in most pf the Barcelona's neighbourhoods, while the PP resisted in the wealthiest sections of Sarrià-Sant Gervasi and Les Corts in competetion with CDC

[Velasco]

40 dB poll for El País. PP performing below 20% would be a catastrophe for Casado



The real campaign begins tomorrow with the TV debate in two rounds

[Velasco]

Also, here's how my precinct looks like. This is particularly interesting as I live in the same town as Velasco (albeit in very different places it seems)

PP 39%
UP 23%
Cs 18%
PSOE 16%
CC 1%

With weird polarized politics like that it's got to be an middle-upper class suburb or neighborhood of Madrid.

Well, with CC being an option and being in the same town as Velasco, it can't be Madrid

It is indeed a middle or upper-middle class suburb though. Also one of the more ex-urban kinds of suburb, not close at all to the city center.

CC got approximately the same votes as PACMA in LPGC . The neighbourhood where I have my 'official' residence (I am registered there, but that doesn't imply I live there all the time) is working class with some middle class patches and is urban. Other places in town where I lived when I was a child are more PP leaning, though. Particularly in the precinct where is located the clinic where I was born and what was my grandparents' house the PP got more than 50% of the vote.

[Velasco]

How are CC numbers in regional/municipal elections in LPGC??? Probably better than those numbers from the general election but I don't think much better.

Other question, how people see NCa vs CC?

The numbers are bad. LPGC is the most populous city in the Canary Islands and the CC's black hole. NC has better numbers, obviously. However NC has been always comparatively weaker in the capital, while it's stronger in the rest of the Gran Canaria island. Particularly the NC's historical strongholds are located in the GC1 corridor, a major road that runs through the east coast connecting the capital with the tourist resorts in the south (Maspalaomas-Playa del Inglés).

2015 regionalist vote in LPGC (local, regional and insular):

- In the local elections NC got 7.5% of the vote winning 2 councilors
CC got 3.2% of the vote failing to reach the 5% threshold to win councilors

- In the regional elections NC got 9.3% of the vote (18.4% in the Gran Canaria constituency) and CC got 3.6% (6.2% in Gran Canaria)

- Similarly in the elections for the Cabildo (insular government) NC performed worse in the capital (17% in LPGC and 26.5% in Gran Canaria), while the CC Numbers were uniform (5.4% in the capital and 5.6% overall).

NC came first in the elections for the Cabildo mostly due to the popularity of its candidate Antonio Morales, who got better results than party leader Román Rodríguez in regional elections. I voted for Morales, despite I'm not a big fan of his party. I backed him because he was the most viable candidate to defeat PP, as well he's decent and more palatable to me than the former CC premier Román Rodríguez (1999-2003).  

The rivalry between CC and NC is basically related to the pleito insular, that it's to say the rivalry between the two most populous islands: Tenerife and Gran Canaria. CC has been historically dominated by a party of Tenerife "independents" (mostly coming from UCD) called ATI*, which was the main component of a preexisting federation of insular parties. NC is a split of CC whose origin is the dispute for power between ATI and the Gran Canaria branch led by Román Rodríguez, who sought for another term as premier. I think there was some implicit agreement on rotating premiers from TF and GC that ATI wanted to break in order to place its candidate Paulino Rivero (2007-2015). The origins of the NC members are different from those of ATI, as many of them came from leftwing regionalist parties like Asamblea Canaria (AC-INC) or Unión del Pueblo Canario (UPC). Even former PCE members joined CC back in the day... However the ideology and principles of some leftist elements melted into the CC's big tent. Currently NC governs the Cabildo (in coalition with PSOE and 2 councilors formerly in Podemos), several GC municipalities and is part of the local government of LPGC (PSOE-Podemos-NC).

*The Tenerife Group of Independents (ATI) is ideologically right of the centre and has been the dominant political force in the island for many years at local, insular and regional levels. All the past and present CC premiers are from ATI, except Román Rodríguez.    

[Velasco]

Good showing from Rivera, it seems. Pablo Iglesias not bad, Sanchéz average and total car crash for Pablo Casado.

I couldn't see the whole debate, but there's another tomorrow night. A panel of 8 experts in El País gives the following verdict: Iglesias 4, Rivera 3, Sánchez 1, Casado 0.
 
https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/22/actualidad/1555942966_982643.html


Iglesias resembled too much former IU leader Julio Anguita with his constant invocations to the constitution, but on the other hand it's a good way to counterattack the aggresive 'constitutionalism' of the right claiming that PSOE and Podemos are 'unconstitutional'. Both Iglesias and Rivera are good in TV debates, while Sánchez is average at best. Casado has experience in talk shows, but the experts consider that he crashed tonight.

[Velasco]

Is that actually a bad thing for Vox though? Would they actually quite like the mantle of “outsider” going into these elections?

Not really. Many people think that it's better for Vox being outside in order to take the role of victim.  Additionally Vox leader Santiago Abascal lacks experience in debates,  as well as an dialectical tools or an elaborate discourse. While the four leaders debate again tonight Vox will organize a big campaing act in Las Rozas, an affluent PP stronghold near Madrid. They have their own agenda and are running a parallel campaign strongly focused on social networks. Abascal is making very few public appearances. Bolsonaro style.

[Velasco]

Abascal speaks at campaign rallies,  but he's much more elusive than other candidates and only talks to friendly media. Btw, Vox spokepersons are stating their intent to lock down not only public TV channels (including the golpista TV3, of course) but unfriendly private channels too...

[Velasco]

How can people seriously rate Rivera in debate performances. He came across as so overdramatic and rushed at the same time. His final speech basically akin to the kind of speech a sh**tty football coach gives to his team. Arrimadas was infinitely better in the debate previous to this one with the small parties. She is like an anaconda on any slip up her oponent lets on.  

In general the tone of the debates reflects the campaign though : lamentable.

I dislike Rivera too, but he clearly managed to gain ground to Casado appealing to the same audience target. The football coach call works with some voters, sadly.

[Velasco]

The final debate is being tough with Pablo Casado and Albert Rivera attacking Pedro Sánchez,  in open competition for the leadership of the Right. Many interruptions and too much finger-pointing. The fact check in media reveals the three told lies or inaccuracies. The only one who keeps a correct tone is Pablo Iglesias, and I'm not member of his fan club. In my ipinion the Podemos leader is the clear winner of the night...

[Velasco]

Last night's debate was marked by its harsh tone, the fight between Casado and Rivera for the leadership in the right and a clear divide between blocs with Pedro Sánchez saying a deal with Cs is not in his plans. Pablo Iglesias separated himself from the others, surprising many with his serene and propositive approach. Certainly his expectations are lower than three years ago, but this version of the Podemos leader is more likeable than the arrogant prick he was before. The Podemos leader is undoubtedly smart and once again he showed up as a good communicator. On the other hand, Casado recovered ground to an overacting and histrionic Rivera. Pedro Sánchez survived and sometimes it seemed he showed a half smile while his rivals in the right fought each other. Sánchez clashed with Rivera, partly because the Cs leader was annoying and partly to diminish Casado's protagonism. Iglesias came occasionally to defend Sánchez, assuming the role of guardian of the leftist essences and loyal collaborator. The sync beetween the candidates left of the centre was much better than that of the right.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/24/inenglish/1556088918_583955.html

“Divide and conquer” has been a classic combat strategy since the days of Julius Caesar. In Spain, the war over who gets to lead the political right played out openly on Tuesday night, during the second televised candidate debate ahead of the general election on Sunday.

The constant clashes between Pablo Casado and Albert Rivera, the leaders of the Popular Party (PP) and Ciudadanos (Citizens), meant that the prime minister, Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE), was largely spared the onslaught that he had been expecting (...)

One of the highlights was the exchange of poisoned gifts between Rivera and Sánchez. Many people think their rivalry enters personal grounds and it seems obvious they loathe each other. After this debate the possibility of a PSOE-Cs agreement looks more unlikely than ever...

Sánchez and Rivera also had personal messages for one another, backed up by props they brought to the set of the state broadcaster TVE. The Ciudadanos candidate pulled out a copy of Sánchez’s doctoral thesis, alluding to a scandal over alleged plagiarism by the PM, and said: “Since today is Saint George’s Day [observed in Catalonia by exchanging gifts of books and roses], I’m going to give you a book you haven’t read, your own fake thesis.”

Sánchez was ready for this: he also produced a book, written by Vox leader Santiago Abascal and featuring a Spanish flag on the cover, “so you can see what you allies say.” Sánchez had been hoping to have Abascal at the debates in order to better illustrate his campaign message about “the three rights” that could govern Spain.

The tone reached such a low point that Iglesias, who remained in the zen mode he has adopted throughout the campaign, made a desperate plea: “I am feeling very embarrassed about the way this debate is going.”

Enric Juliana's assessment in La Vanguardia

Pedro Sánchez. More energetic and tighter than previous day. He repeatedly sought hand-to-hand combat with Rivera. He showed a letter suggesting the creation of blacklists in the Justice department of the Andalusian regional government managed by Cs with devastating effect. He broke with Cs and accused oranges of complicity with the far right.

Pablo Casado. He sought to get back on his feet and at times he managed to do so. His tone in the debate was more moderate than in campaign (but he showed up more combative than previous day), Visibly upset with Rivera.

Albert Rivera. This time he couldn't lead the way with the deal of brio he showed on Monday. Sánchez and Casado blocked him. He went too fast (overacting) and got lost with his constant interruptions to rivals.

Pablo Iglesias. Professoral, attenuated, controlled, constitutional, asking moderation to the other candidates. He was the most solid speaker and there will be consensus on proclaiming him the winner of the second debate. An unseen version of Iglesias defending Podemos as a party of government.

[Velasco]

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MINUTO-POLITICO-Recta-campana-decidir_13_892190773_26522.html

A leading candidate for the Madrid Community says the governance of the city centre in relation to reducing car emissions is all wrong because traffic jams when you go out to dinner are part of the city's heritage.

I am really starting to think the Spanish Right is the dumbest Right in Western Europe.

Isabel Diaz Ayuso stands out as one of the dumbest PP candidates promoted by Casado. Maybe she's not the worst. Recently the PP candidate for Huelva in general elections said that Pedro Sánchez "seats at the table with violators and pedophiles". The daughter of Juan José Cortés was killed by one of those criminals and that's a tragedy, but the man does not have a skill level to run in elections. One of the 'new' Casado candidates is articulate and smart, case of Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, but she's too radical and confrontational and has been placed in Barcelona to set fire to the flames with very bad prospects of electoral success. I think that Casado's PP is making the Vox campaign and most of the new set of candidates is mediocre. Sometimes is I miss the Rajoy's boring predictability.

[Velasco]

What a coincidence, shortly after the brilliant statements of the PP regional candidate in Madrid, Cs hires former Madrid premier Ängel Garrido to run in the regional list. Garrido replaced Cristina Cifuentes after her resignation over the master degree scandal and is a close friend of hers. The new orange team draftee sought to run as the PP's candidate for premiership, but Pablo Casado replaced him and appointed Isabel Díaz Ayuso. According to El País, Garrido decided to take revenge at Easter because his team of collaborators was relegated in the regional lists. Garrido had previously accepted to run in the 4th position of the PP list for the EP elections.

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2019/04/24/madrid/1556131657_186311.html

[Velasco]

Facebook takes down far-right groups days before Spanish election

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/25/facebook-takes-down-far-right-groups-days-before-spanish-election

Facebook has taken down several networks that were spreading far-right content to nearly 1.7 million people in Spain, days before national elections that are expected to see a surge in support for the far-right Vox party.

The networks were uncovered in an investigation by the campaign group Avaaz, and taken down only after it presented Facebook with its findings.

The discovery of a large network, spreading politically sensitive content unmonitored days before a key European election, is likely to add to concerns about social media firms’ willingness and ability to control hate speech and criminal activity on their sites (...)

he largest network – Unidad Nacional Española (UNE) – had more than 1.2 million followers, and others reached hundreds of thousands more. Together they had more than 7 million interactions, at a time of intense political activity and focus on the political rise of the upstart far-right party Vox.

Pierre Moscovici: "We need a pro-European, proactive government in Spain"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/25/inenglish/1556176223_194937.html

With little more than 72 hours to go before Spain holds a snap general election, the EU Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Pierre Moscovici, gave an interview in which he piled praise on the Spanish economy and played down the the signs of instability and political fragmentation, with one exception: the emergence of a far-right force, Vox.

“That paves the way for dangerous alliances,” laments the socialist politician, who has been on the frontline of European politics for a quarter of a century. “Far-right parties are a danger to European democracy.” Still, Moscovici feels that Spain has a large enough central bloc to prevent an Italian-style drift towards populist politics.

[Velasco]

Is Electomania seriously getting around the polling ban by pretending to be talking about emojis?

The "Andorra fruit market" in previous elections was better. It was referring to the polls released by a paper from Andorra during the ban. I'm afraid the "emojipanel" is only a version of the "electopanel" and the latter is a fake poll. Our electoral law is more absurd than ever...

[Velasco]

Not sure if I'm the only one who's asked this, but... is there something resembling a possibility that shy Vox voters actually make it the largest party on the Right?

It's nearly impossible that Vox becomes the largest party in the right. However, from what I've been collecting and without polling evidence, there could be a Vox surge in the last minute pushing the far right to 15% and not far from the third place (in competition with Cs and UP). Right now the WhatsApp groups must be coming from the wound with fake news and propaganda. In case this surge happens, it'd be at the expense of PP and Cs but also on the mobilization of angered voters who don't believe in politics anymore (thus support antipolitics). PP's campaign staff assumes the loses will be big but the conservatives would call victory if a Vox surge brings them back to power. Some people feel the PSOE's progression halted and now socialists are below the 30% mark. UP might have recovered some ground thanks to the revelations on the dirty war against the purples during the Rajoy administration and the good performance of Pablo Iglesias in the TV debates.

I'm not making a prediction and I hope the Franco's comeback won't happen, but I'm crossing fingers and preparing myself for the most dangerous possibility. Just in case. Also, take into account the election of Donald Trump in 2016 was something like the accession to the throne of Caligula and his horse. This created a bandwagon effect in the rest of the wold (Bolsonaro, Salvini, etcetera).

In the news, Casado considers the possibility of including Vox in government in case of rightwing majority.

Pedro Sánchez: "There is a real risk that the right could join with the far right"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/26/inenglish/1556261539_359058.html

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE) is heading toward what might be his first election win after being defeated twice at the polls, ousted by his own party, and then returning victorious in party primaries and leading a successful vote of no confidence against Mariano Rajoy of the conservative Popular Party (PP).

Polls suggest Sánchez will win the highest number of seats in Congress at the general election this Sunday, April 28, but fall short of an absolute majority. Amid this uncertainty, the PSOE leader is hoping to mobilize the left to avoid a repetition of the election results in Andalusia, where the right-wing parties PP and Ciudadanos (Citizens) formed a government after an inconclusive election result thanks to the support of the far-right party Vox.

The following is an edited version of the original interview in Spanish (...)

[Velasco]

  Any sense of what  the combined seat total of PSOE plus UP would be for a viable Sanchez government?

The best result for the left would be a seat count that makes the support of catalan separatists unnecesary. Given that PNV will win around 6 seats and Compromis might win 3, I'd say more than 165. Below that mark ERC would become decisive for the conformation of majorities. Also, it'd be important the combined seats of PSOE, UP, PNV and Compromis exceed those of PP, Cs and Vox. In that case Pedro Sánchez could pass a second investiture vote with the abstention of the catalan separatists.  The more decisive are the latter, the more unstable and weak will be a leftwing government.

[Velasco]

I'm crossing fingers and preparing myself

Same. Going to shul now, on this special occasion I will be praying for Vox and the right 🙏🏻

 
Fernando Paz, who leads the VOX list in Albacete, who questioned the Holocaust and called the Nuremberg Trials a Farce, will be getting your special prayers undoubtably?

https://www.larazon.es/espana/los-judios-preocupados-por-las-declaraciones-del-candidato-de-vox-por-albacete-IE22510495

In Vox's defense (never thought I'd say that), they did eventually have to take him out of the list

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20190321/461160389167/fernando-paz-vox-albacete-renuncia-caceria-mediatica.html

They do have plenty of other "colourful" candidates, including 2 pro-Francoist former generals

I think that I said it before, but Vox didn't take him out based on moral scruples. Far from that, Vox asked him to 'resign' because an Holocaust negationist was not acceptable for the Vox's friends in the Alt-Right wing of the Republican Party (and by extension certain powerful donors linked to them, as well as the Israeli Right). Also, the Jewish community in Spain is small but it has good connections with the Spanish mainstream right and the business world. There was an obvious concern regarding possible coalition partners with candidates showing Nazi sympathies...

[Velasco]

VOX leader Santi Abascal reminds me of a Spanish version of Salvini in Italy, which means VOX should perform really well tomorrow.

I think Santiago Abascal has little in common with Matteo Salvini, leaving aside that both are far right demagogues and have a beard. One of the main differences between Vox and other far right parties like Lega in Italy is the lack of a charismatic link between the party leader and his voters. In the case of Spain the Vox trademark is stronger than Abascal.

[Velasco]

They belong to the same political family and it's obvious that Salvini supports Abascal and not Sánchez. What proves and what's the point in embedding tweets like that?

Is that Vox slogan "España Viva" viewed as a dog whistle to the slogan in the Franco era (the one starting with "España una") or does it not have that connotation?

Do you mean "Una, Grande y Libre"? "España Viva" might have that connotation for some people, likewise a slogan like "Make Spain Great Again" could be interpreted in that way. I think it's obvious the Franco's spirit is there, but Vox is not campaigning on overtly Francoist slogans.

[Velasco]

They belong to the same political family and it's obvious that Salvini supports Abascal and not Sánchez. What proves and what's the point in embedding tweets like that?

Since you had just stated that they aren't similar and Salvini tweeted an endorsement? Didn't Salvini use to advocate for the separatists in the past? I dunno, I don't think I really "get" Europe's politics yet.

Lega yes, Salvini not so much.

Obviously I was referring to the style of leadership. Salvini is a charismatic leader; Abascal is not.

[Velasco]

Where is PACMA's best shot of winning a seat? Madrid presumably?

According to the CIS, Barcelona and Valencia. I think Barcelona and Madrid, in this order. In both cases it's enough to get 3% of the vote to win a seat in Congress. PACMA performed slightly better in Barcelona (1.8%) with regard to Madrid (1.1%) in 2016.

Also, everyone assuming that VOX will surge by 3 points over all the polling... remember that everyone expected the same thing in France, and Sweden, and in both cases neither happens. VOX having virtually no electoral history or "last time voters" makes them harder to poll, but it doesn't necessarily mean that the polls are massively underestimating them.

Yes, that surge in the last minute is only a possibility. Additionally the demoscopic silence forced by our electoral law helps to spread rumours and foster fantasy. The theory of a Vox surge is based on the precedent of the Andalusian elections, when opinion polls undetected its real strength because the final rush occurred in the last days during the polling ban. People guess if there's a "shy effect" it would affect Vox. The far right party is expected to perform strongly in Madrid, Castilla, Andalusia, Murcia or Valencia. However the Vox results in Catalonia, Basque Country or Galicia will be presumaably weak. There will be surprises omorrow night, that's for sure. Vox has chances to come in third place, but maybe it won't fulfill some expectations or flights of imagination (or maybe it will, who knows). I think the game is open and nothing is written.

[Velasco]

And from what I have read, it will crash and burn pretty hard, as VOX has a very successful outreach campaign on the ground and will end up with 15-20%.

Not impossible (and from your lips to God's ears), but sounds way too high and would certainly require a massive polling error. Placing my bets on 12-14% territory.

It seems you are taking the more conservative approach in guesstimating the result, while I take the more realistic one. Years of massive unemployment, dissatisfaction with life and misery among a very large group of Spanish voters, imported crime and immigration from Africa and the Middle East (tolerated by the Socialist PM) and their likelihood to support fast rising startup parties like Cs and Podemos in the past suggest that there could be some massive polling error tomorrow and that voters are not telling pollsters their true intentions.

But I don't know much about Spain and what is true in other countries may not be true there, so my prediction could also be completely nuts.

I understand your joy and happiness with the Vox surge in Spain, since you share a similar eorldview. However this post shows your deep ignorance of Spanish politics, as you admit in the last paragraph. I will have to ask you to read something before you post here. I would never dare to poke my nose into the Austrian thread without a mimimum knowledge of issues, or at least a minimum interest to understand the reality of the country. Please, go away with your Breitbart and your Tweeter

[Velasco]

You can post your two cents as long as you are respectful. That post of yours is not respectful and is plenty of inaccuracies. I think it's obvious that you share the same worldviews of the far right. Opinion is free. Trolling, falsehood and disrespect are not. I think you don't have an actual interest in Spain and there are plenty threads where uou can share your hatred of immigrants. Please, Tender, go.

[Velasco]

Or let's not and stay focused on the election.

That's a good idea

[Velasco]

Considering that there were two back-to-back debates during the polling blackout, the likelihood that the polls fail in disastrous fashion seems pretty likely. I think that the most plausible scenario would be an eyepopping Podemos overperformance, which wouldn't be difficult to accomplish. In the end though, there's a lot of uncertainty. No "side" has reason to feel very confident because we're all in the dark.

There's still polls, they just measure ***ahem*** people's fruit and vegetable preferences, or what hairstyle people like...

As said before, the "emojipanel" is a fake poll. There are polls commissioned by parties and other organizations, but they are not released. Also, there is a high degree of uncertainty everywhere.