Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Mike88]

In the last map Vigo is in colour red. I checked and the PSOE came close of winning, but it came second behind the PP. Vigo is the most populated town in Galicia and it has a popular socialist mayor that wins by landslide (the singular Abel Caballero). It's generically left-wing and En Marea came first in the 2015 general elections

Tonight results for Vigo

PP 32.6, PSOE 31 9, BNG 23 3, GeC 6.1, Vox 2 2, Cs 1 2

Yeah, the map has that error. Weird. And the PSOE candidate for the Presidency of Galicia was his nephew.

Leading party maps of Galicia are ocerwhelmingly blue due to the PP gegemony and the division of the left

I checked Cangas too, a left-wing nationalist stronghold in Pontevedra province

.PP 34.2, BNG 34.1, PSOE 17.8, GeC 8.4, Vox 1 6, Cs 1

Pretty leftwing overall, but the PP beats the BNG by a hair  

Also, in the Portuguese border, BNG polled above 30% between Tui and A Guarda. Also polled well in the border city of Verín.

The 11th PP in Pontevedra seat has gone back to PSOE. PSOE leads now by 121 votes. Let's see if it stands or will PP gain it back.

[Mike88]

Down to 57 votes the lead by PSOE in that seat in Pontevedra with 99.16% of the votes counted

[Mike88]

Down to 57 votes the lead by PSOE in that seat in Pontevedra with 99.16% of the votes counted

The PP takes again this seat, now with 110 votes ahead of PSOE. 0.52% of the vote still to be counted in Pontevedra.

[Mike88]

In the Basque Country map I see that the PSOE manages to win a single municipality. It's Ermua, a small town in Biscay close to the town of Eibar in Gipuzkoa. Ermua has a large amount of people with origins in other regions (Galicia, for instance). Miguel Angel Blanco, a PP councillor killed by ETA in 1997, was from Ermua

Tonight results in Ermua

PSE-EE 26 6, PNV 24.9, EH Bildu 21 2, EP 11 9, PP+Cs 10 1, Vox 1.9

The PP was quite strong there in the past, polling at above 20%.

[Mike88]

Final results from Galicia. The PP failed to win the 42nd seat by 45 votes in Pontevedra.

48.0% PP, 41 seats
23.8% BNG, 19
19.4% PSOE, 15
  3.9% GeC, 0
  2.0% Vox, 0
  0.8% C's, 0
  0.5% PACMA, 0
  0.2% Mareas, 0
  0.5% Other parties, 0
  0.9% Blank ballots

58.9% Turnout

[Mike88]

With all the close calls I think we will need to wait for the mailed votes from Spaniards permanently abroad (CERA vote) to get an idea of the final result for good

Ah yes, forgot about that. Yes, that could change the seat. In 2008, in the general election, didn't PP lose a seat after the votes from abroad were counted? I recall something like that.

I'm honestly shocked that Podemos was shut out of the Galician Parliament. It's as if half their voters fled straight to the BNG and pollsters didn't notice.

More like all their voters to be precise

Yeah, it was quite a shock. I had a feeling that BNG would be ahead of PSOE, but the colapse of Podemos was a surprise. Even if you add the votes for the Mareas, they don't make it. Quite astonishing.

[Mike88]

Well, today was the day when the final foreign votes are tallied, as well as some recounts done just in case in the Basque Country and Galicia. There were several seats at play in both regions and one in Galicia, though in the end only one change has happened.

PP+Cs ended up winning one seat in the province of Biscay (Basque Country) from PNV. Final results are:

PNV: 31
Bildu: 21
PSE: 10
UP: 6
PPCs: 6
Vox: 1

This actually matters slightly more than you think, as a left wing coalition of Bildu+UP+PSOE is now short of a majority, with conservative parties (PNV+PPCs+Vox) having a majority now

Of course in practice, such a left wing coalition was never going to happen even if Podemos was pushing for it quite hard, PSOE had discarded it a long time ago and everyone expects that PNV and PSOE will choose to rule together again. Let alone the conservative coalition with PNV and Vox lmao. Though there are rumours that PSOE may choose to just give out external support to a minority PNV government instead of opting for a formal coalition this time.

Ir's interesting, indeed. Even though a coalition between EH Bildu and PSOE with Elkarrekin Podemos was not going to happen, the possibility of an alterbative and advance of the Basque nationalist left haven't go unnoticed for the PNV.

What happened with that seat in Pomtevedra disputed between PSOE and PP?

I think the Pontevedra seat ended up with no changes if I am not mistaken

Electomania says that the Galicia CERA votes will only be counted next Monday.

[Mike88]

Embattled 'emeritus' king Juan Carlos to leave the country

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53642283

Juan Carlos, 82, made the announcement in a letter to his son, Felipe, to whom he handed power six years ago.

He said he would be available if prosecutors needed to interview him.

In June, Spain's Supreme Court opened an investigation into the alleged involvement of Juan Carlos in a high-speed rail contract in Saudi Arabia.

It was not immediately clear when the former monarch would leave Spain and where he would reside.

It is a humiliating exit for a king who had seemed set to go down in history as the leader who skilfully guided Spain from dictatorship to democracy after the death of General Franco in 1975, BBC Europe correspondent Nick Beake says.

According to Portuguese media, he's going to exile in Cascais in the house the royal family owns there. Don't know if it is the same as his childhood one.

[Mike88]

Well it could be more difficult than this.

Italy has an entrenching clause about the form of government too (Article 139) except that instead of rendering the process more difficult and complicated, it directly says that it cannot be changed in any way.

And trying to remove the entrenching clause would be more difficult, because constitutional reform in general in Italy is more difficult.
(not to mention that the Constitutional Court would likely immediately block whatever attempt to remove/change Article 139)

In Portugal the Constitution doesn't allow any change of the political system, according to article 288:

Article 288 - (Material limits of revision)

Constitutional review laws will have to respect:

(...)
b)  The republican form of government;
(...)

I believe this kind of Constitutional rules, forbidding or making almost impossible to change the political system, are quite common in every country.

[Mike88]

According to La Vanguardia, Juan Carlos is taking up temporary residence in the Dominican Republic. The 'emeritus' king left the royal residence of La Zarzuela on Sunday, then moved to Sanxenxo in Galicia and spent the night there. On the following day, he drove south and crossed the Portuguese border towards Porto. There he took a flight to the Caribbean country. Juan Carlos will be hosted by the rich Fanjul family (sugarcane growers) at Casa de Campo complex in La Romana

The new theory is that he's in Quinta do Perú, a luxurious golf club/neighborhood in the Peninsula of Setúbal, in a house owned by the Espírito Santo family.

That... doesn't look good., but it seems it's a house from a branch of the Espirito Santo family that is in a legal battle with the former chairman of the extinct Espírito Santo Bank, Ricardo Salgado.

[Mike88]

According to La Vanguardia, Juan Carlos is taking up temporary residence in the Dominican Republic. The 'emeritus' king left the royal residence of La Zarzuela on Sunday, then moved to Sanxenxo in Galicia and spent the night there. On the following day, he drove south and crossed the Portuguese border towards Porto. There he took a flight to the Caribbean country. Juan Carlos will be hosted by the rich Fanjul family (sugarcane growers) at Casa de Campo complex in La Romana

The new theory is that he's in Quinta do Perú, a luxurious golf club/neighborhood in the Peninsula of Setúbal, in a house owned by the Espírito Santo family.

That... doesn't look good.

Can you tell us sometthing about the Espirito Santo fannily?

Like I said above, the house seems to be from a branch of the family that is in a legal battle with Ricardo Salgado, former CEO of the extinct Espírito Santo Bank. The family is a very old one and the family was quite close of the Spanish Royal family when they were exiled in Cascais, in the 50's and 60's. The Espírito Santos were one of Portugal's richest families owning a lot of properties and the Espírito Santo Bank, which was Portugal's largest private bank.

The Bank went into bankruptcy in 2014 as illegal money schemes literally destroyed the bank and the former CEO, Ricardo Salgado, is being accused of several crimes that cost the bank almost 12 billion euros in losses. Many illegal funds were created to fund things and divert money. Plus, taxpayers are still bailing out the bank created by the wreckage of the old one, the Novo Banco, almost every year and it's almost always in the political arena. But, the family is split right now. Many parts of the family didn't have any responsibilities in the bank and lost a lot of their fortunes and some branches are in legal fights to receive compensations.

[Mike88]

What is El Mundo drinking?

'Operation Cascais': a mansion for Juan Carlos

The Portuguese plans of King Emeritus and the three key people who prepare him for his final landing after the summer: an old friend, a woman and the President of the Republic.

This story is a bit ludicrous. The Brito e Cunha branch of the Espirito Santo family helping the King I can believe, now Lili Caneças? Really? And Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa meddling in all of this? That would likely be a violation of the role of the President.

Anyway, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has already said this report is madness and any sensible and intelligent person would realize he's the last person in Portugal to intervene in this situation.

[Mike88]

Anyway, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has already said this report is madness and any sensible and intelligent person would realize he's the last person in Portugal to intervene in this situation.

Indeed. I know little about the constitutional attributions of the presidency, but it makes no sense that Rebelo de Sousa intervenes. I would have felt embarrassed reading that news


According to first rumours, Juan Carlos went from Porto to the Dominican Republic. Now there's a picture of the emeritus king allegedly taken at his arrival to Abu Dhabi airport on past Monday. I've read in La Vanguardia yesterday that his stay in the Persian Gulf Emirates is provisional and he might be considering New Zealand, a covid-free paradise for sailors, but the journalist is careful enough to say that's only a speculation. Regarding Juan Carlos' passion for sailing, it seems well established that he moved from La Zarzuela (the royal residence near Madrid) to Sanxenxo (a coastal town in Galicia) on Sunday. Juan Carlos has a 'court' of loyal friends there, a reduced circle including a local businessman and members of the Sanxenxo yacht club. People in that town is apparently convinced that Juan Carlos will be back in September to participate in the sailing regattas. Juan Carlos would have said to his close friends the departure is provisional and he "will be back soon", but possibly that's the kind of statements you can expect from someone who is assimilating his new condition. From what I'm gathering, I think it's not correct to say the emeritus king has fled the country escaping justice. I believe, concurring with the last article I linked from El País, that Juan Carlos has been forced to leave the country against his wishes. But Juan Carlos is not going to be obedient in 'exile' and he will go wherever he pleases, even if his movements are embarrassing for the government or the royal household. Expect all kinds of incredible stories

The President has no executive powers and the "big powers" he/she has is vetoing laws, which can be surpassed by Parliament at the 3rd consecutive veto, nominate/dismiss the PM and "the atomic bomb" of dissolving Parliament by his own decision, which is rarely used, and only once happened. Even foreign trips of the President need to be approved by Parliament or he cannot leave the country.

The stories about are becoming very silly and this whole secrecy is becoming stupid. There's no reason, right now, for not announcing where he is and Juan Carlos could easily give a written, or even a in person, statement describing his reasons to do this and that he will return to Spain several times in the future. Prolonging isn't going to help.

[Mike88]

Regarding the mythicizing of the Hero of the Transition, I think it's interesting this interview with the historian Julian Casanova in La Voz de Galicia. Personally I consider he puts the things right. Juan Carlos was not the man sent by the providence to guide us towards democracy, but a man who played a very important role as the head of the state designated by Franco. He made correct and transcendental decisions, such as appearing on television dressed in full uniform by February 1981. Quite possibly he had the history of his family in mind, as well as the precedent of his brother-in-law Costantine of Greece (who sided with the Greek junta and later had to leave his country). Maybe the root of his late problems and bad decisions is the aura of sanctity his supporters bestowed upon him

https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/espana/2020/08/08/julian-casanova-juan-carlos-i-dio-aureola-santidad-sacralizacion-permitia-/00031596875297517553495.htm

The article is quite neutral and it gives a good assessment of Juan Carlos. He did in fact good things for Spain but that doesn't meant he was a"saint", no one is. There's many examples across history of good leaders that by the end did many mistakes as they thought they were untouchable.

[Mike88]

For those of us who can't read Spanish, a summary?

Well, that is actually an exaggeration, especially the "Podemos collapses" lol

Anyways, the summary is that the Treasurer and the Campaign Managers from Podemos have been charged with illegally financing the party

This is somewhat reminiscent of the Gürtel case from PP a while back, where the PP tresurer was also accused of illegally financing the party as well. (or if you really care to go back that far, the Filesa case where PSOE was also accused of illegal financing in the late 80s)

In any case, they've just been charged. Now it will take a long while until those charges are actually confirmed or dropped. And if confirmed it will take years until the trial finally ends. So we are here for a long while.

Or a more simpler summary is that Podemos is just another member of the "caste", alongside PP, PSOE and others.

[Mike88]

For those of us who can't read Spanish, a summary?

Well, that is actually an exaggeration, especially the "Podemos collapses" lol

Anyways, the summary is that the Treasurer and the Campaign Managers from Podemos have been charged with illegally financing the party

This is somewhat reminiscent of the Gürtel case from PP a while back, where the PP tresurer was also accused of illegally financing the party as well. (or if you really care to go back that far, the Filesa case where PSOE was also accused of illegal financing in the late 80s)

In any case, they've just been charged. Now it will take a long while until those charges are actually confirmed or dropped. And if confirmed it will take years until the trial finally ends. So we are here for a long while.

Or a more simpler summary is that Podemos is just another member of the "caste", alongside PP, PSOE and others.

"La Casta" was a popular expression reflective of a particular moment of anger, but it' s a bit outdated now. "Juancarlistas" are a bit old-fashioned, too. I never bought the simplistic vision, but I think that slogan had a raison d'être. It served the purpose of catalyzing a desire for change and as a revulsive against the conformist political elites, in a moment of terrible economic crisis and poverty of expectations (especially for young people). The Podemos momentum passed away and nowadays Pablo Iglesias has become a member of the establishment, something like an Euro-communist

Yes, I know it's a bit outdated, from 2014/15. I wrote it because it was a trademark of Podemos, alongside the "tick tock" one, and it played over and over around here.

[Mike88]

Stockholm still votes to the right of the country as a whole, no? Oslo as well, possibly.

I am not sure about Stockholm proper, but its suburbs seem to be the only places where the Moderate Party tops the poll, together with the suburbs of Malmö.
Oslo seems to be right-leaning too, yes.

I wonder when various capitals last voted to the right of their nation.
Rome has never done in the Second Republic Party System. Things get obviously messy before 1994... the margin between DC and PCI was generally closer (actually PCI won Rome in 1976 and 1983) but Rome was also peculiarly good for the far-right. Last time Rome uncontrovertibly voted to the right of Italy appears to be 1948.

Lisbon is a swing city as it has voted for the winner in every general election since 1975, but more recently the city tends to give a slight higher share for the rightwing parties than the country as a whole, in general elections of course. Local elections are a whole different championship.

[Mike88]

Stockholm still votes to the right of the country as a whole, no? Oslo as well, possibly.

I am not sure about Stockholm proper, but its suburbs seem to be the only places where the Moderate Party tops the poll, together with the suburbs of Malmö.
Oslo seems to be right-leaning too, yes.

I wonder when various capitals last voted to the right of their nation.
Rome has never done in the Second Republic Party System. Things get obviously messy before 1994... the margin between DC and PCI was generally closer (actually PCI won Rome in 1976 and 1983) but Rome was also peculiarly good for the far-right. Last time Rome uncontrovertibly voted to the right of Italy appears to be 1948.

Lisbon is a swing city as it has voted for the winner in every general election since 1975, but more recently the city tends to give a slight higher share for the rightwing parties than the country as a whole, in general elections of course. Local elections are a whole different championship.

is Lisbon trending to the right?

Like I said, it's a swing city as it goes left to right quite rapidly, but, for example, the overall rightwing vote in Lisbon city grew a tiny bit from 2015 to 2019, 37.5% to 38.2%. Nationwide, the rightwing vote in 2015 and 2019 was 38.6% and 35.4% respectively. Porto city is trending right much more rapidly and strongly.

[Mike88]

Very nice map Skye! Congrats!. The colours are fine by me. Grácia and Eixample are really bastions of the pro-Independence. Les Cots and Sarrià are the most affluent areas of the city, right?

[Mike88]

Very nice map Skye! Congrats!. The colours are fine by me. Grácia and Eixample are really bastions of the pro-Independence. Les Cots and Sara are the most affluent areas of the city, right?

Thank you. Yes, parts of Les Corts and Sarria are among the most affluent in the city. The PP (by itself) easily won a few precincts there.

Though the precincts around the Passeig de Gracia in the Eixample district are very affluent as well, but the right doesn't nearly have the same strength there. That said, all of the precincts there were won by JxCat instead of the more left wing ERC, so there's that.

Yeah, the only thing uniting ERC and Junts is independence, in the rest they are miles apart: one is a leftwing party and the other a center-right one, heir of the late CiU.

[Mike88]

With this result, what kind of majority is possible? A PSC-ERC-Comun coalition like the graphic says or something different? It seems the only solution.

[Mike88]

With this result, what kind of majority is possible? A PSC-ERC-Comun coalition like the graphic says or something different? It seems the only solution.

ERC+Junts propped up by the CUP would have the numbers

Aren't ERC and Junts at odds with each other? My impression was that the relation between both parties is very bad now.

[Mike88]

The Catalan regional elections could be postponed until May:

https://twitter.com/rtvenoticias/status/1349326075654856704

The Catalan Government is willing to postpone the elections to the Parliament of Catalonia, scheduled for February 14, given the advance of the coronavirus pandemic, according to TVE.

[Mike88]

It seems that the PSC is proposing postponing the election to 14 or 21 March. A decision will be made during the day, it seems.

[Mike88]

Curiously, the other poll by GESOP, published in Andorra, has Junts crashing at 18.8%.