Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

José Manuel Villarejo is a retired police superintendent imprisoned since November 2017, charged as the alleged leader of a police mafia. Mr Villarejo admitted today before the National High Court that he had access to the contents of a cellular phone belonging to an aide of Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias. According to the defence lawyer, the corrupt policeman denied any involvement in the theft of said phone that contained personal and political information of Pablo Iglesias. Mr Villarejo tried to Justify having information concerning Pablo Iglesias (it was found in a pen drive when Villarejo was arrested) alleging there was an ongoing police investigation.

By 2016 and shortly after the Podemos irruption in Congress with 69 seats, that is to say in the heyday of the Pablo Iglesias party, the online newspaper OK Diario released a fake news on an alleged police report that said the Iran government financed Pablo Iglesias and people close to him. This writing was called the PISA report (PISA means Pablo Iglesias Limited Company) and its authorship is attributed to a so-called patriotic brigade within the police, during the term of Rajoy's Interior minister Jorge Fernández Díaz, whose alleged leader was Mr Villarejo. Said reports were dismissed by a judge in June 2016, ruling they lacked evidence. The final goal of these reports was apparently to bring Podemos down and prevent a negotiation between the Pablo Iglesias party and the PSOE led by Pedro Sánchez.

Yesterday Pablo Iglesias testified before the Court as injured party. He could not reveal details due to sub iudice rule, but stated his commitment to the truth, justice, institutions, dirt cleansing, etcetera

[Velasco]

Regarding Villarejo, I personally think hes best recient report has been the fact that he claims that Morocco and France's secret service did the Madrid bombings.

I have to say, that's a nice change of pace from the usual right wing "ETA did the Madrid bombings and PSOE hid the evidence" conspiracy.

The claim on an alleged involvement of French and Moroccan intelligence (in partnership with ETA) is far from being new. Back in the day people like Federico Jiménez Losantos was airing that nonsense.

[Velasco]

New set of polls

Metroscopia / 20 minutos

PSOE 28.7 (116-126), PP 19 (72-78), Cs 16.3 (53-62), UP 14 (35-41), VOX 11.7 (30-37), Others 11.3 (29-31)*

* ERC 14, CDC (JxCAT) 6, PNV 6, EH Bildu 2-4, CC 1

IMOP 7 El Confidencial

PSOE 31 (133), PP 20 (77), Cs 14.9 (53), UP 11.9 (28), VOX 10.1 (27), ERC 3.3 (14), JxCAT 1.3 (4), EAJ-PNV 1.2 (6), EH Bildu 1.1 (3), Compromis 0.7 (3), PACMA 2 (1), CC ? (1)

Celeste-Tel / eldiario.es

PSOE 27 (110-115). PP 22.9 (93-95), Cs 16.7 (56-59), UP 12.1 (31-33), VOX 9.1 (18-20), ERC 2.8 (11-13), JxCAT 1.7 (5), EAJ-PNV 1.2 (6), Compromis 1.6 (4-5), EH Bildu 0.7 (2-3), En Marea 0.7 (3), N+ 0.5 (1), CC 0.3 (1)

[Velasco]

There was a Vox rally in Barcelona this morning, with the presence of the leading figures of the far-right party. Attendance was estimated at 15k by organizers and only 5k by the local police. Pro-independence and far-left groups, namely the CDR (Committeesfor the Defense of the Republic), called a counter demonstration in protest. The Mossos de Esquadra (regional police) prevented that Vox supporters and pro-independence groups clashed. According to La Vanguardia at least 7 people were arrested in the incidents between the Mossos and the pro-independence protesters. Vox advocates the suppression of regional police, as well as the suspension of regional autonomy, the ban of pro-independence parties and so on.

The most relevant political issue right now concerns the revelations on the dirty war launched by the Villarejo's patriotic brigade against Podemos

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/29/inenglish/1553846581_687820.html

In April 2016, with the Popular Party (PP) in power, high-ranking officials at the Spanish Interior Ministry granted an extraordinary residency permit to a Venezuelan national who had been cooperating as a police informer in a political dirty war against the left-wing Podemos party.

This warfare is attributed to the so-called “Patriotic Brigade,” a group of officers who allegedly engaged in irregular activities during Mariano Rajoy’s first term in office in an attempt to damage the reputation of the PP’s political rivals (...)

Some bizarre statements made by the son of former PM Adolfo Suárez, who runs in the second position of the PP list for Madrid, raised controversy. Apparently Neanderthals were pro-choice

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/29/inenglish/1553847183_963327.html

Spain’s conservative Popular Party (PP) is once again in hot water after its new congressional candidate made a series of incendiary claims about abortion. Adolfo Súarez Illana – who is the eldest son of Spain’s first democratically elected prime minister after the 1975 transition to democracy, Adolfo Suárez Gonález – stated on Thursday that “abortion has been around for 100,000 years. The Neanderthals also used it. But they waited for the baby to be born and cut off its head." (...)

This article about the animal welfare PACMA might be interesting for someone

https://www.politico.eu/article/pacma-animal-rights-party-spain-rise-of-the-spanish-vegans/

Green parties have been gaining ground in countries such as Germany and the Netherlands, but Spain's environmentalists have struggled to attract voters. That's changing, thanks to a radical animal rights party.

Pacma — which promotes veganism to fight global warming and wants to ban zoos, circuses, bullfighting, fishing and hunting — is predicted to send one or two MEPs to the European Parliament in May, joining a small club of animal rights parties with a representative in the European assembly (the Dutch Party for the Animals and Germany's Human Environment Animal Protection.)

But while in those countries and elsewhere, traditional green parties are far more popular than animal rights groups, Pacma is on track to become the closest thing Spain has to a viable environmentalist party (...)

After this, I don't think there's any pollster showing a right wing majority in terms of seats. Although all but one pollster do show a right wing victory in the popular vote, generally around 6 points or so.

I think NC Report for La Razón still does. Anyway Francisco Marhuenda is a PP hack.

Given that there's one month left and that's a very long time in modern politics, nothing can be taken for granted. I think the main risk for the PSOE is that Podemos collapses completely, to the point that socialists get isolated in parliament. In case UP resists in the 11-12 pp soil, PSOE is around 30 pp and the right-wing vote remains fragmented, everyhing  is going reasonably well for Sánchez. The worst thing that socialists could do is getting too confident, though

[Velasco]

UP 84%
PSOE 79%
EH Bildu 78%
ERC 70%
EAJ-PNV 56%
PDeCAT 54%
Cs 44%
PP 28%
VOX 17%

[Velasco]

I didn't realise I was such a law and order hawk

Your "spider web" web is very similar to mine when I took the test yesterday.  I don't think I'm a hawkish person, but I know there's a difference between liberty and libertarianism

I have many coincidences with EH Bildu and ERC, regardless the national question. I'm not hawkish on issues like the implementation of article 155 in Catalonia, which I strongly oppose because I consider undesirable a permanent state of emergency. I recall I had a 100% match with EH Bildu on environmental policies, but only 40% pn decentralization. Maybe the reason is that I voted "neutral" on the indy ref question, mostly because of boredom and bad precedents (Brexit, Colombia plebiscite)  

[Velasco]

CEO* poll

Spanish genereal election in Catalonia (2016 seats in brackets):

ERC 24.5% 15 seats (9)
PSC-PSOE 23.7% 11-13 seats (7)
ECP 15.4% 7-9 seats (12)
 JxCAT 12.1% 5-7 seats ( 8 )
Cs 11.7% 5-6 seats (5)
PP 5.9% 2 seats (6)
FR** 2.5% 0-1 seat
Vox does not appear

Parliament of Catalonia (2017 seats in brackets)

ERC 40-43 (32)
Cs 28-29 (36)
JxCAT 22-24 (34)
PSC 21-23 (17)
CatComú-Podem 8-9 ( 8 )
CUP 8 (4)
PP 3-4 (4)

* CEO is a sociological institute depending on the Catalan government, the equivalent to the Spanish CIS

** Front Republicá ("Republican Front") is a far-left separatist coalition that incorporates a faction of the CUP. The top candidate for Barcelona is Albano Dante Fachín, a former leader of Podemos in Catalonia born in Argentina. The candidate of En Comú Podem (ECP) for Barcelona is Jaume Asens, a philosopher and political scientist who is councilor in the Barcelona City Hall. This candidacy raised some opposition within Podemos because Asens is pro-independence.

The other top candidates running for Barcelona province are:

Oriol Junqueras: ERC leader and fromer deputy premier, who is being tried before the Supreme Court

Public Administrations minister Meritxell Batet for the PSC-PSOE

Former leader of the pro-independence organization ANC (Catalan National Assembly) Jordi Sánchez for JxCAT. He is in preventive detention and being tried like the ERC leader.

Opposition leader in the Parliament of Catalonia and Cs national spokeswoman Inés Arrimadas

Journalist and historian Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo for the PP, a hardliner against separatism

Previous general election polls in Catalonia predict a tight ERC-PSC contest

Recently Pedro Sánchez compared the Catalan secessionist bid with Brexit, arguing that both are based on lies

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/03/spanish-pm-pedro-sanchez-brexit-catalan-independence-bid-both-based-on-lies

pain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has compared Brexit to the failed push for Catalan independence, warning that “engaging in campaigns or political projects based on lies eventually leads societies down a blind alley”.

Renewing his appeal for the UK to accept the EU’s withdrawal deal, Sánchez said he saw clear parallels between the rhetoric that drove the Brexit debate and the arguments used in the regional independence campaign that plunged Spain into its worst crisis in four decades.

“The techniques of the Catalan independence movement are very similar to those of [Nigel] Farage and other ultra-conservative leaders who have defended Brexit,” he said.
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“They say, ‘Europe’s stealing from us!’, or ‘Spain is stealing from us!’, or, ‘If we had more economic resources …’. At the end of the day, I think that engaging in campaigns or political projects based on lies eventually leads societies down a blind alley and that’s really hard to manage.” (...)

 

The PSOE electoral slogan was presented this week. Its translation is "Make It Happen" ("Haz Que Pase") and apparently is inspired in a scene of the film Titanic, or at least that's what the Govt spokeswoman told to the press. The message it tries to convey is that people can make possible a better Spain by turning out and voting for the socialists. However, the double meaning of the sentence and the Titanic reference were ammunition for the PP. The campaign of the conservative party replied with comparisons between the government and the Titanvic sinking and sentences in the style of "haz que se pase pronto", whose translation could be "make the government to pass quickly"

[Velasco]

Why is the right losing support?

The GAD3 and the GESOP polls indicate a level of support similar to the 2016 elections (PP+Cs 46%, PSOE+UP 43%), so the right is not losing much support. The problem for the right is that now it's splitted in three and the electoral system penalizes dispersion. Leaving aside some centre-left voters returning to PSOE over the Cs turn to the right, according to pollsters  most of the vote transfers are taking place within blocs. Cs boosted past year taking advantage of the PP collapse, as it was the natural choice for voters right of the centre disgruntled over the crisis in Catalonia or the corruption scandals. Now many voters are switching from Cs to Vox, attracted either by radicalism or by novelty. Polls say that Vox has slowed its growth, but there can be no assurance with this party. Apparently the PP has stopped falling and is stable on a 20-21 pp soil. Another factor to take into account is the mobilization of left-wing voters, becasue they are more prone to abstain if they feel disappointed. In the 2016 elections UP lost 1 million of voters in comparison with the Podemos and IU results in 2015 and the correlation between blocs was reversed (PSOE+Podemos+IU got 46% in 2015, PP+Cs got below 43%). It seems the fear of Vox might help to mobilize the left, but that's uncertain. Also, there is a sizeable amount of undecided voters that will make their decision in the final days. The last campaign days after Easter holidays will be decisive.

Will Bildu be more likely to support a Sanchez government than the Catalan nationalists?

No. EH Bildu voted the no confidence motion against Rajoy, but later rejected any type of cooperation with the PSOE government. The Bildu folks are at the very least as radically pro-independence as the Puigdemont supporters. Anyway the correlation of forces makes EH Bildu much less relevant than the PNV and the Catalan nationalists.

[Velasco]

CIS mega-survey released today. Even though the vote estimation is controversial, there is a lot of interesting data. The sample size is massive and there are seat projections for every province, which must be taken with a grain of salt but give some clues on a number of issues (for instance, the geographical distribution of the Vox support)

Provinces where Vox has chances of winning seats. The result in Barcelona could be a shock

Catalonia: ERC landslide, PSC resurrection, En Comú Podem and JxCAT lose ground, mediocre results for Cs, Vox amazement, PP on the verge of extinction and PACMA could get in

[/center]

[Velasco]

Why the Vox strength in the Comunitat Valencia? The Catalan link?

Vox is a new party and its strength by regions is yet unknown. However, Vox is mostly a split of the PP and the vote patterns in the Andalusian elections suggest the far right party is stronger in the places where PP is traditionally strong. Extrapolating to the rest of Spain, most of the analyses and predictions point that Vox has better chances in regions that lean PP in general elections like Madrid, Valencia or Murcia. On the opposite side, Vox is expected to perform poorly in peripheral regions with proper language like Basque Country and Navarre, as well in Catalonia and Galicia (despite the latter is a traditional PP stronghold). So according to these expectations, Vox winning 3 seats in Barcelona would be a shocking result. Notice that Vox does not appear in the results of the CEO poll that I posted before. One of these two is going to be wrong. 

 The link between Catalonia and Valencia is complex. The Valencian region has a proper language that is a variation of the Catalan language, although there are Castilian speaking areas within the region (inland and southern sections). These linguistic zones are usually related to colonization in the Middle Ages after the Reconquista, either with Catalan or Aragonese settlers. There are two opposing political traditions in Valencia, one is Catalan-friendly and the other is fiercely anti-Catalan (Blaverism). Compromís could be an example of regionalist party of the first tradition and the historical Unió Valenciana of the second (UV formed electoral alliance and later merged with the PP). The Catalan nationalists ERC and the CUP have branches in Valencia, but they are rather marginal. Obviously Vox could garner a strong support among the anti-Catalan sector of the population.

[Velasco]

Frankenstein, ETA and the eight-headed serpent: the verbal aggression of Pablo Casado might be an act of desperation

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/09/inenglish/1554792934_759961.html

In March 1996, the governing Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) commissioned a campaign video that depicted its rival Popular Party (PP) as an enemy of progress, and illustrated the idea with ominous black-and-white images that included a large barking dog. The TV ad about “the Socialist doberman” made waves at the time, but these days it wouldn’t even scare kindergartners (...)

The term “Frankenstein government” has already become commonplace, following last year’s successful no-confidence vote against the PP’s Mariano Rajoy. The motion was led by PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez with support from a loose coalition of leftist and regional parties, including Catalan separatists. This led critics to compare a hypothetical executive made up of all these varied groups with Mary Shelley’s famous patchwork monster.

And now comes “the eight-headed Hydra,” in the words of PP leader Pablo Casado, who used this figure from Greek mythology at a Barcelonarally on Monday, when he listed some the “heads” on this serpent-shaped monster: “Separatists, coup-plotters, terrorists, communists, Chavistas, Castro sympathizers...”

Honestly, if we have to take the CIS poll at large with a bit of caution, the province/regional crosstabs should be taken with a ton of caution. Valencia is not the worst offender, IMO Barcelona would be (no way Vox is that high in Barcelona, even with an abysmal PP candidate)

I think Vox will win seats in Barcelona. Maybe 1 or 2 instead of 3, I don't know. The relative success of PxC (Platform for Catalonia) in some local elections years ago suggests there's some ground for a xenophobic far-right party that advocates a radical Spanish nationalism, especially in the Metropolitan region of Barcelona. The CEO poll must be wrong

[Velasco]

Today the CIS released a poll for the Valencian regional elections taking place on the same date as the general elections. The PSPV-PSOE led by premier Ximo Puig appears as the clear winner

GAD3 conducted a poll for Las Provincias local newspaper (March 31) with the following estimation:

PSPV-PSOE 28.8% (33), PP 22.4% (24), Cs 14.6% (15), Compromís 14.4% (13-14), VOX 7.1% (7-8), UP 6.7% (5-7)

I'd say PP is too low in the CIS poll and VOX is too low in both

[Velasco]

Valencia is still, at best, a community roughly around the national average; and all election polls are predicting a right wing victory in the popular vote; and vote splitting won't hurt the right all that much in the regional election compared to the national election (Remember even Castellón gives out 24 seats in the regional election; compared to 5 in the national one)

Yes, there will be split ticket voting, especially regarding Compromís, and that split ticket voting will help the left, but the Valencian election is no better than a tossup for the left, and I'm even tempted to give PP a small advantage.

I think the left has a chance to retain majority in Valencia, better than some might expect. The coalition government between PSOE and Compromís has been pretty stable and reasonably efficient, to the point that some people compare the regional political situation with Portugal. The current government came after a long period of PP in power with crushing majorities, whose turbulent final period was marked by massive corruption scandals. Valencia became synonymous with cronyism, squandering and wrongdoing  3 of 4 PP premiers are charged in legal proceedings: Francisco Camps, José Luis Olivas and Eduardo Zaplana. The latter has been already 8 months in prison and is accused of hiding 20 millions abroad... The contrast with the present period is so brutal that I'd be surprised if voters forget so fast. Anyway I concur the result is likely to be tight in what regards the balance between left and the rightwing blocs. The actual Vox support is yet unknown and could make the difference as in Andalusia, but I doubt the turnout will be so depressed in the left to create a similar shock.

Just as a reminder, the previous regional election was a landslide for the left. The parties left of the centre (PSOE, Compromís, Podem and EUPV) got 55% of the vote, while the parties right of the centre (PP, Cs and UPyD) got around 40%. PACMA (0.8%) and Vox (0.4%) were under radar.

However the right performed better in general elections. In 2015 the left (Compromís-Podem, PSOE, EUPV-IU) got 49% of the vote and the right (PP, Cs) 47%. In 2016 the left (Compromis-Podem-EUPV, PSOE) got 46% and the right (PP, Cs) got 50%.

 PACMA got 1.3% in 2016 and now the CIS says the animal rights party has chances of winning a seat for Valencia in the next general election. Winning a seat in that province requires approx 5% of the vote. The PACMA seat for Barcelona seems to be easier to win, given that it requires to get 3% and the PACMA already got 1.8% in 2016.

The party just released a well crafted campaign video. The PACMA "Re-Evolution" begins to fight against the Vox "Involution"

https://pacma.es/videos/empieza-la-reevolucion/

[Velasco]

Tonight the campaign started officially. From now on there are 15 days left for Spaniards to decide if they want Frankenstein (PSOE, UP and peripheral nationalists), the Colón Triumvirate (PP, Cs and Vox) or a repetition of elections. Isn't it an exciting perspective?

Divide and conquer: the strategy of Pedro Sánchez

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/12/inenglish/1555052464_524300.html

The two-week campaign ahead of the general election of April 28 that began today is going to be an atypical one, with many Spaniards away on their Easter vacation. Everything will come down to the last week, and the candidate debate scheduled for April 23, five days before voters go to the polls, will be a crucial moment in the race.

When Socialist Party (PSOE) Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez decided on Thursday to agree to one single five-way debate – rather than four ways, excluding the far-right Vox – it confirmed what his strategy is going to be.

After much internal discussion, the socialist leader is opting to bring together the heads of the Popular Party (PP), Ciudadanos (Citizens) and Vox, to convince undecided leftist voters that these three right-of-center parties will govern Spain unless there is a strong turnout on April 28. Sánchez wants a new “photo of Colón,” alluding to a mass protest against his government held in February at Madrid’s Colón square, and which marked the first and up until now only time that PP and Ciudadanos leaders were pictured together with representatives from the far-right Vox.

Sánchez also wants the political right to be as fractured as possible ahead of the vote. The idea is that if all three parties have similar levels of support, it will be harder for their leader – presumably the PP – to fight the PSOE over key seats in Congress (...)

This is going to be a weird campaign. Vox leader Santiago Abascal started his triumfal tour in Covadonga, which is an appropriate choice because that location in Asturias is the site of the inaugural battle of the Reconquista, or at least that's what the national mythology says (likely the Battle of Covadonga was just a skirmish).¡Santiago y Cierra España! The campaign will coincide with the Easter holidays; the colorful Holy Week processions will take place in Andalusia as usual. The three leaders pf the Spanish Right announced their presence in the Cristo de la Buena Muerte ("Christ of the Good Death") procession taking place in Málaga, but the organizers (a confraternity called Cofradía de Mena) have requested them not to go in order to prevent the vent turns nto a campaign act. This is true Spanish folklore: the wooden sculpture of the Christ id ¡s carried on the shoulders of the brave legionaires. The Spanish Legion is a military unit made in the likeness of its French counterpart and is very linked historically to the colonial wars in Northern Morocco (Rif), the Spanish Civil War and Franco. Currently the Legión is an elite unit that takes part in UN missions abroad.

El País average polling: PSOE 29.3%, PP 19.9%, Cs 15.5%, UP 13.6%, Vox 10.7%  

Podcast in English

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/03/inenglish/1554292100_462357.html

GAD3 for ABC

PSOE 30.9% (135-137). PP 21.3% ( 85-91), Cs 13.5% (43-46), UP 12% (29-30), Vox 11.2% (25-29), ERC (12-13), EAJ-PNV (6), JxCAT (4-5), EH Bildu (2), NA+ (2), Compromís (1), CC (1)

Celeste-Tel for eldiario.es

PSOE 27.3% (112-117), PP 23.9% (99-102), Cs 15.9% (51-56), UP 13.1% (32-37), Vox 7.8% 812-14), ERC 2.8% (12-13), EAJ-PNV 1.2% (6), JxCAT 1.6% (5), Compromís 1.5% (4-5), Eh Bildu 0.8% (2-3), En Marea 0.5% (3), NA+ 0.5% (1), CC 0.3% (1), PACMA 1.5% (0)

[Velasco]

Honestly, I thinks is very hard to understand the stability of Compromís, I mean, the coalition covers a broad range of movements with different views on Valencian identity (well, not blaverism), from strong Valencianism to people who want to establish the Catalan Countries. I think it is great, but also is weird in a country like Spain, where the left tends to implode and ends divided.

Compromís is indeed a strange coalition of Valencian regionalists (BNV or Bloc is the main partner) with some former IU members integrated in the party of Mónica Oltra (the ecosocialist IdPV). I think the main reasons that cement Compromís are electoral success and the charisma and leadership of Mónica Oltra. The Valencian Nationalist Bloc amalgamates several parties and it has a remarkable territorial implementation in the Valencian-speaking countryside, but it's weak in the most populous urban centres. The Bloc failed to win regional seats in 2003 due to the 5% threshold ruling in Valencia (it got 4.7%). In the following election the Bloc shifted to the left and established an alliance with EUPV (the regional branch of IU). This coalition was called Compromís PV ("Commitment for the Valencian Country") and proved rather unsuccessful (CPV got 8% in 2007, while EUPV and Bloc got a combined 10.8% in the previous election). The bad electoral result worsened a relationship between coalition partners that was pretty awkward already. Eventually an internal rift within the EUPV led to the split of Mónica Oltra, Joan Ribó and other EUPV members that established a new party in the likeness of the Catalan ICV (the ecosocialist IdPV). Oltra and her party kept the alliance with the Bloc, while the 'orthodox' faction of the EUPV followed its own path. Oddly enough the reshaped Compromís and EUPV were successful in the 2011 elections, as both parties managed to be above threshold (Compromís 7.2%, EUPV 5.9%). The new Compromís was initially led by the Bloc leader Enric Morera, with Mónica Oltra as deputy leader and parliamentary spokeswoman. However Oltra was always the most charismatic figure of the coalition: she came out as a tenacious and combative parliamentarian, very vocal against the corrupt administration of Francisco Camps. Her popularity and appeal among the young voters living in the cities contributed decisively to the success of Compromís. Enric Morera, on the other hand, is calm and measured so his personality is  in some respect complementary to that of Oltra. I'd say the success of Compromís is due to a rare balance between its heterogeneous components, both personal and organizational. On a side note, Compromís has parted ways with Podemos recently Oltra is in good terms with the former second-in-line Íñigo Errejón...

Also I think the Valencian Community (or Pais Valencia) is the place (with Murcia) where Cs and Vox can do really well. Both are communities with historically strong provincial PPs that governed alone for many years but now are with notorious signs of exhaustion (the case of PP in Valencia is really crazy). Right wing people in those communities now have real options. I think Cs can also exploit the language card in Valencia with some success.

Yes, both Cs and Vox have good chances there. In the case of Valencia the anti-Catalan factor has been always a strong electoral card for the rightwing parties. The profile of the Cs candidate Toni Cantó is clearly anti-Catalan and "hardline liberal", in contrast with the social-liberal and environmentalist credentials of the 2015 candidate Carolina Punset. The latter is daughter of the popular science commentator and former UCD member Eduardo Punset and left Cs due to ideological differences, complaining the party abandoned it's alleged initial social-liberal orientation. 

[Velasco]

This article about the battle for the "Emptied Spain" is worth reading, particularly because it's a key feature of the upcoming general election

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-battle-for-spains-empty-center/

panish politicians are flocking to the countryside, looking for photo opportunities with villagers, tractors and even farmyard animals.

The rural interior of the country has become the subject of mass political and media attention ahead of a national election on April 28. That's because the Spanish right has become fractured, which could mean the end of the Popular Party's stranglehold on the area and could pave the way for Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's Socialists to win districts that are overrepresented in parliament in what is certain to be a very tight race.

Madrid's sudden interest in rural areas has also spurred many locals to take advantage of the situation. They are using the attention to highlight issues such as communities' aging and shrinking populations, as well as traditions they want to protect, such as hunting.

“Rural Spain today holds a prominent place in the public conversation, in the political agenda of each and every party,” Sánchez said at a rally in Segovia, north of Madrid, late last month. “After years of silence, it’s time to take action.”

Sánchez has good reason to be focusing on the interior. Polls predict that the Socialists will replace the Popular Party (PP) as the biggest party in a majority of inland provinces. But it's not because rural voters are flocking to the Socialists; it's because the far-right Vox party and the liberal Ciudadanos are taking votes away from the PP (...)

Spain is divided into 52 electoral districts, and the rural areas are valuable. The 28 most sparsely populated constituencies have just 20 percent of the population but 30 percent of the seats in parliament —  103 out of 350. On top of that, the electoral system becomes less proportional in these areas because of the reduced number of seats per district, giving the winning party a bonus.

In 2016, the PP won 40 percent of the vote in rural districts and 51 percent of the seats. A poll of polls for El País forecasts the conservatives will lose almost half their seats in those constituencies, while the Socialists will grow from 29 to 48.

[Velasco]

GAD3 poll for La Vanguardia

It's good news for the PSOE, although the pollster warns there's a high degree of uncertainty because 26% of voters could switch to other parties and change the result.

Vote share: PSOE 31.1, PP 21 (including NA+), Cs 14.4, UP 11.4, Vox 11.2, ERC 3.6, PACMA 1.4, EAJ-PNV 1.2, JxCAT 1.2, EH Bildu 0.7, Compromís 0.5, CC 0.3, Front Republicá 0.2

Right 46.6% 151-161 seats
Left 42.5% 164-169 seats
PSOE+Cs 45.5% 181-185 seats

[Velasco]

Velasco,
Could you tell us which small parties, from the least likely to the most mikely, could support a PSOE-Podemos government?
Thanks!

I guess you mean regionalist parties.

Traditional PP allies like UPN (Navarre) and Foro (Asturias) will never support it for obvious reasons. The Canary Coalition (CC) will never support a government including Podemos and is currently in bad terms with the PSOE. JxCAT is  dominated by Puigdemont supporters and won't back it, unless Pedro Sánchez is willing to make concessions on self-determination (extremely unlikely). I guess EH Bildu wouldn't support it for the same reasons, regardless there's more ideological proximity. ERC is currently in a more pragmatic stance than JxCAT in what regards the path to Catalan independence; it's possible that ERC leadership would want to back a PSOE-led government, but it would face pressure from pro-independence grassroots if there are no concessions on the part of Sánchez. The PNV has less ideological proximity to the Spanish Left than ERC and Bildu,  but its approach is far more pragmatic and the Basque nationalists want to prevent that Cs touches power (either in a rightwing coalition or with the PSOE). Finally Compromis (Valencia) would support a PSOE-Podemos government in all likelihood.

I think it's pretty clear, as of now, that PSOE will win with around the same % PP got in 2016, 33%. It will be interesting to see what happens in PP/C's after the elections, and if the results are what polls predict. Will Casado be kicked out of the PP leadership and Soraya makes a comeback? And C's? Will they eat their words and form an agreement with PSOE, or will there be a "refoundation" of the Spanish right like in the late 80's with a merge of PP and C's, if that's even possible.

Also, curiously, and for now, the Spanish elections are receiving almost zero coverage from the Portuguese media. Interesting, but that may change in the next few days, i assume.

The polls are favourable for Pedro Sánchez, but getting too confident is the worst thing socialists can do and I guess they are fully aware of that after Andalusia. The PSOE seems to be engaged in a catch all strategy and the socialists are apparently successful in regaining voters from Podemos and Cs. Additionally polls say they are attracting a cross-generational support and that's very positive for them. However that base of support is far from being consolidated. There is a high proportion of undecided voters that could decide the election one way or another, depending on which side they go in the final days.  Moreover the rightwing vote is splitted and this favours Sánchez,  but it's also very motivated to show up on election day. Mobilizing the leftwing vote is key, not only for the PSOE but to prevent the UP collapse. Will the fear of Vox be enough to make lefties go to the polls?

I don't foresee a Soraya comeback. Possibly the natural candidate to replace Pablo Casado in case of crushing defeat is Alberto Núñez Feijoó. Casado is far from being consolidated in leadership, but there are too many people in the PP disliking Santamaría. The Galician premier is the only consensus figure that could unite the party.

In the case of Cs the problem is that Rivera left all his eggs in the basket of the Colón Trio. A PSOE-Cs coalition would be the preferred option for the European Commission and pretty much by the business world and everything related to establishment. It's not easy to eat your own words when they are so weighty. Additionally the decision to place Inés Arrimadas as candidate for Barcelona might reveal a bad idea if she is not able to improve the orange performance in that key province. Prospects are not particularly favourable. Arrimadas is the obvious replacement for Rivera. I still think she's a valuable politician, but her showing after the last electoral success in Catalonia has been rather disappointing IMO.

[Velasco]

The PSOE unveiled its "low key" platform in a campaign act that took place in Leganés, a working class located south of Madrid. Pedro Sánchez promised  a constitutional reform to "shield" pensions before an aged audience gathered in a senior centre. Recently the economic guru Daniel Lacalle, who is a staunch neoliberal and runs in the PP list for Madrid, made a campaign gaffe as he suggested a drastic reduction in pensions to maje the state system "sustainable". Later Lacalle claimed he was misunderstood, in a similar way that Pablo Casado charges against the press when he makes gaffes or controversial statements. Lacalle is promising a "fiscal revolution" with massive tax reductions that "will save 705 Euros to the average taxpayer" (and presumably a much larger amount to the richest taxpayers). On the other hand, Pablo Casado announced on Monday that he will apply the Political Parties Law to those organizing "escraches" ("escrache" is an Argentinian word that means "exposure protest" that may be synonym with "bullying" or "harassment"). Rightwing candidates and leaders Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, Albert Rivera and Santiago Abascal have faced "escraches" from radical pro-independence supporters in Catalonia and the Basque Country.

Brief summary of proposals to tackle some of the country's main problems: five parties, two models

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/15/inenglish/1555313118_338133.html

Catalan crisis: PP, Cs and Vox promise to apply Article 155 and introduce direct rule, regardless the dubious constitutionality of such measure. PP is promising to intervene on subjects ranging from education to media outlets; Cs would ask the Catalan premier to comply with the Constitution and intervene in case of negative answer; Vox would rather suppress regional autonomy.

 The PSOE is trying to overlook the Catalan conundrum during the campaign. Its proposal is strengthening self-government and opposing both direct rule and independence referendum.

Podemos supports a negotiated referendum in which they'll support that Catalonia remains with an improved self-rule.

Gender issues: Vox advocates the repeal of the legislation against gender based violence. but PP and Cs defend it and want to address issues like the salary gap. PSOE and Podemos seek to strengthen LGTBI rights. The purple party wants to achieve gender parity in institutions like the Cabinet (I thought that was achieved already) or the Supreme Court within a 4 year period. as well as reform criminal legislation to protect victims of sexual assault (the case known as La Manada raised a lot of indignation).

Taxes: Leftist parties want that highest earners, big comapnies and banks pay more taxes. The PSOE announced new taxes on financial transactions and digital services, as well as a higher income tax rate for the wealthy.

The PP promises to cut the highest tax rate from 45% to 40%, bringing corporate tax below 20%, eliminating inheritance tax, estate tax, etcetera. Cs would reduce highest tax rate to 44%, act against corporate tax deductions and eliminate inheritance tax. Vox advocates massive tax reductions.

Pensions: Vague pledges for "reform" to achieve "sustainability". Vox would likely demolish the state system.

Employment: The right supports measures that reduce of workers' rights and make firing cheaper. The PP wants to go further the 2012 reform in order to continue the "progress on market flexibility", while the left wants to repeal part of this legislation to reinforce workers' rights and tackle job insecurity.

Nearly every party promises to improve the situation of the  workers through tax breaks and subsidies. Cs in particular always claims to be the party that best defends their insterests. There's some consensus on making paternity and maternity leaves equal.

Immigration: PP wants to fight smugglers and reinforce the southern borders, expand international treaties for repatriation of irregulars. All Venezuelan would be granted residency permits. The PSOE supports orderly immigration" and "maximum respect for human rights". Podemos seeks the abolition of immigrant holding centers (CIE), issue "humanitarian visas" and facilitate family reunification. Cox wants to deport all illegal immigrants, as well as legal immigrants who have committed a crime. Also, Cox wants to build an "insurmountable wall" to protect Ceuta and Melilla from the hordes coming from Africa. The last proposal has a clear resemblance with that of Donald Trump for the Mexican border. 

[Velasco]

Sondaxe poll for Voz de Galicia newspaper:

If PP loses Galicia... Yikes.

Sub-national polling is not always reliable, but anyway Sondaxe is already placing PSOE ahead of the PP in Galicia.

There is a compilation of polls at sub-national level in the Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-national_opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Spanish_general_election

Also, the opinion polling for the upcoming Valencian regional elections is favourable for the leftwing parties. The three last polls appearing in the Wiki page (NC Report, 40dB and Invest Group) estimate a majority for PSOE, Compromís and UP.

In my opinion there are some pollsters that deserve more credit than others. Regardless, I think that all the opinion polls must be taken with some grains of salt. The Vox factor is very difficult to measure. Nobody knows of the Vox support will peak in the final days, with thousands of angry conservatives and abstentionists showing up for the far right party, or it will deflate. Next week the Vox leader Santiago Abascal will confront the rest of leaders in the TV debate. I don't expect a great performance by the far right leader, because he's not a good speaker and lacks intellect or human qualities. But these times are very strange. so we'll see.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/apr/14/spain-vox-party-on-course-to-break-into-mainstream-politics

The Andalucían vote had two dramatic and enduring consequences: not only did it see the socialist PSOE turfed out of office in its traditional stronghold, it also confirmed both the advent of Vox and its growing influence on other rightwing parties.

[Velasco]

Even though Cs has vowed not to form a coalition with PSOE, their stances on Catalonia and gender issues are surprisingly compatible.

Do you really think so? PSOE supports more self-government for Catalonia and dialogue with separatists, while Cs spokepersons say they have nothing to talk with them. In what regards gender issues, Cs supports surrogacy and the legalization of prostitution. PSOE opposes firmly to surrogacy and its stance on prostitution leans to abolition.

[Velasco]

Do you really think so? PSOE supports more self-government for Catalonia and dialogue with separatists, while Cs spokepersons say they have nothing to talk with them. In what regards gender issues, Cs supports surrogacy and the legalization of prostitution. PSOE opposes firmly to surrogacy and its stance on prostitution leans to abolition.

Fair. I was trying to keep my hope high for a PSOE-based coalition I guess 😶

The fact that PSOE and Cs have serious differences doesn't imply the impossibility to reach agreements in the future. Actually a PSOE-Cs agreement would please many factual powers and they will certainly push for it, providing that numbers fit. However the hardline stance against dialogue on the part of Cs is a serious obstacle, regardless both parties concur in their opposition to a referendum on self-determination in Catalonia. Also, the federalism advocated by the PSOE clashes with  the Cs centralist leanings. Not to mention Rivera's promises and his harsh words against Sánchez. However, Rivera promised in 2015 and 2016 that he would never deal with Sánchez and Rajoy. Everybody knows he did in both cases. Moreover, one of the main traits of Pedro Sánchez is his flexibility, something that can be intrepreted in a positive or a negative light. Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias is warning against the possibility of a PDOE-Cs deal. Obviously that's a campaign argument with the purpose of retaining leftwing voters susceptible to flee to PSOE. Iglesias is also seeking a result that makes the seats won by UP necessary for government formation...

[Velasco]

The five-candidate debate suspended by the Central Electoral Board (Junta Electoral Central, JEC). ERC, PNV and CC appealed before the JEC complaining for being left out

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/17/inenglish/1555485592_606737.html

According to legislative reforms introduced in 2011, private networks have the obligation to respect the same principles of “neutrality and equality” as public stations. At that time, the Central Electoral Board (JEC) established that only parties that had earned at least five percent of votes at the last general election could participate in these debates.

Vox obtained 0.2% of the vote at the 2016 election, significantly shy of the threshold. Election officials said its presence would violate the rights of Catalan and Basque nationalist parties, whose leaders were not invited to the event.

The JEC told the Atresmedia group, which owns Antena 3 and La Sexta, to come up with an alternative format for the program. Atresmedia offered a new four-way debate on the same date, April 23 at 10pm.

But Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Wednesday announced that he will instead attend a four-candidate debate on the state broadcaster TVE, scheduled for the same day. The Socialist Party (PSOE) has finally opted for the public television over the private network, saying that “it has offered the signal for free to all media wishing to air the debate,” and because it was the first to offer a four-candidate debate. Before the JEC’s decision, Sánchez had originally opted for Atresmedia over TVE.
Reaction

Prior to the 2015 general elections, Atresmedia organized a debate including Pablo Iglesias (Podemos) and Albert Rivera (Cs), alongside with Pedro Sánchez (PSOE) and Deputy PM Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría representing the PP (PM Mariano Rajoy refused to go). By then Podemos and Cs didn't have seats in Congress, but the 5% rule was relaxed to include other nationwide elections. Given that Podemos got 8% in the 2014 EP elections and Cs got more than 5% in the local elections held in May 2015, their candidates were allowed to participate in the debate. Anyway Pablo Iglesias stated that it is absurd to veto candidates in private network debated and I tend to agree with that.

Pedro Sánchez had accepted to participate in the five-candidate debate with the Vox leader because it was deemed suitable for his campaign strategy. It would have been a  great opportunity to show the Trio of Colón (PP, Cs and Vox) together and place himself at the centre of the stage: a moderate candidate advocating common sense, confronted to the radicalized and vociferous rightwing opposition. The divide and conquer strategy performed by Sánchez has certain resemblance with the strategy employed by Miterrand with the FN in the 80s. Apparently not everybody in the PSOE agreed with that course, but in any case the decision of the electoral board is a setback for the campaign.

Yesterday night there was a debate in TVE between representatives of the six parliamentary groups. Participants were: Cayetana Älvarez de Toledo (PP), María Jesús Montero (PSOE), Irene Montero (Podemos), Inés Arrimadas (Cs), Gabriel Rufián (ERC) and Aitor Esteban (PNV).

The highlight was an intervention of the PP candidate for Barcelona; "I find fascinating -told to the Treasure minister María Jesús Montero- that point in your platform saying you will guarantee with the Penal Code anything that is "no" is "yes", is "no". A silence is a "no"? Are you saying "yes", "yes" until the end? Cayetana Älvarez de Toledo was referring to the controversy on the sexual consent of women, in relation with the ruling of a case known by La Manada that raised widespread indignation. In summer 2016 a young woman was forced to have sexual relationships with 5 men during Los Sanfermines, a big fiesta that takes place in Pamplona (Navarre). Nearly everybody in Spain considered it was a multiple violation. However the court ruled it was sexual abuse but no violation, because the victim didn't say "no" explicitly to the five men. That rule provoked a wave of protests and a debate on whether silence implies consent or not. The PSOE intends to legislate in order that everything that is not explicit consent is considered a "no". Obviously Älvarez de Toledo disagrees with that proposal. The harsh tone of Älvarez de Toledo on this and other subjects (she attacked Sánchez too, in relation with Catalonia) raises enthusiasm in the faction of the PP close to Pablo Casado, but some supporters of Mariano Rajoy fear that it could help to mobilize the left.

[Velasco]

The 'war on debates' came to an end. PM Pedro Sánchez accepted to participate in the debates organized by the public channel TVE and the private network Atresmedia that will take place on two consecutive days, Monday 22 (TVE) and Tuesday 23 (Atresmedia). Initially Pedro Sánchez stated his intention to participate only in the debate organized by Atresmedia, but after the exclusion of Vox he changed his mind and said he would participate in the debate organized by TVE and asked the public broadcaster RTVE to change the date from Monday to Tuesday. The RTVE manager accepted the request raising criticism among opposition leaders (whom maintained their commitment with the Atresmedia debate on Tuesday) and the journalists of the public channel. So we'll have two opportunities to watch the four candidates: Pedro Sánchez (PSOE), Pablo Casado (PP), Albert Rivera (Cs) and Pablo Iglesias (UP).

ERC leader Oriol Junqueras is giving a press conference today from prison, as the electoral board allowed the tried separatist leaders to do so via streaming. He stated that "neither by act nor by omission we will permit a far right government".

The Economist editorializes it'd be good that Pedro Sánchez gets a result allowing him to form a stable government and deems economically dangerous a PSOE-Pdemos coalition. Also, it warns that a rightwing triumvirate would aggravate conflict in Catalonia and be a step in the wrong direction for a country that fought so hard against the ghosts of the Franco's nationalism.
 
In a similar line, Brussels fears that the election may not end political instability

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/18/inenglish/1555570052_174296.html

Elections are one of those defining moments in the history of a country. Spain is viewing the general election of April 28 as some sort of second democratic Transition, following a decade of recession that left lingering scars in the form of unemployment and inequality. There is also the biggest political crisis in 40 years to contend with – Catalonia – as well as a new and imperfect five-way party system that is going to turn parliament on its head.

Spain’s young leaders (they were all born after 1972) have opted for a confrontational tone that complicates post-election alliances. This ulcerous atmosphere also makes it hard to hold far-reaching debates: besides the headline-grabbing sound bites, hardly anyone is taking a clear stand on the main issues driving Europe’s agenda, from Brexit to immigration or the future of the euro (...)

  

[Velasco]

This is an extraordinary map of the 2016 results by precinct or census section

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/17/actualidad/1555522788_557334.html

Results in my precict were UP 33%, PP 28%, PSOE 23%, Cs 11%