Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[jaichind]

Seatwise PP+VOX+C has pretty much stayed the same.  I do expect C to gain a bit in terms of seats.  So on paper PSOE can still pursue PSOE+UP plus support of various regional forces.

[jaichind]

I think PSOE will also lose its majority in the Senate.

[jaichind]

81.75% counted

PSOE   28.39%
PP        20.72%
VOX     15.10%
UP        12.77%
C           6.70%
Mas       2.32%

[jaichind]

So the only thing this election achieved is to take PSOE+C off the table as an option.

[jaichind]

88.60% counted

PSOE   28.21%
PP        20.76%
VOX     15.12%
UP        12.80%
C           6.76%
Mas       2.36%

[jaichind]

94.18% counted

PSOE   28.07%  120
PP        20.79%   88
VOX     15.12%   52
UP        12.81%  35
C           6.79%   10
Mas       2.40%     3

[jaichind]

97.89% counted (I think we are pretty much done)

PSOE   28.02%  120   (-3)
PP        20.80%   88 (+22)
VOX     15.10%   52 (+28)
UP        12.82%  35   (-7)
C           6.79%   10  (-47)
Mas       2.40%     3   (new party)

[jaichind]

PEDRO SANCHEZ, TACTICAL MASTERMIND

I would not say that its a tactical defeat for him. For those in the PSOE establishment, Podemos was always the greater threat than VOX cannibalizing the right. Just look how Susana Díaz/Gonzales did everything in their power (as far as conspiring with PP) to keep Podemos from Power. Podemos weakened and split, while PSOE stays practically stable, is tactically not a bad result for PSOE.
Although it is sad for the Spanish Left overall of course (and its state of being reduced to bitter factionalism), and not good for Spanish Democracy.

But PSOE lost 3 seats even as it got UP to lose 7.  Not sure how I read that as any sort of tactical victory.

In fact I suspect UP will become more obstinate after this election since their view might be: after PSOE threw everything at us the damage is 7 seats.  Bad but not disastrous.  We for sure have to stick to our guns. 

[jaichind]

99.99% counted

PSOE   28.00%  120   (-3)
PP        20.82%   88 (+22)
VOX     15.09%   52 (+28)
UP        12.84%  35   (-7)
C           6.79%   10  (-47)
Mas       2.40%     3   (+2)

If you add in NA+ and Coalició Compromís in April 2019 the seats and vote share change in the Right and Left Blocs are

                   April                    Nov
            Vote       Seat      Vote       Seat
Left     43.65%    166     43.24%    158
Right   43.22%    149     43.11%    152

Pretty much no change with virtual tie.

[jaichind]

The pro-independence parties grew by less than I would have thought in Catalonia given recent events and rise of VOX in the rest of Spain.

[jaichind]

Rivera Quits, Gives Up Politics

[jaichind]

Sánchez and Iglesias have a "pre-agreement" to form a coalition government. *Insert clown emoji here*

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/12/actualidad/1573561378_089352.html

Question is, do they have the votes?

THEN WHAT WAS THE POINT OF THIS ELECTION?!?

To take PSOE-C off the table.  Having less choices clarifies the mind.   Research has shown that people are leas happy when their 401K gives them too many mutual funds to choose from.

[jaichind]

When will polls close and any links to results ?

[jaichind]

Galicia Exit Poll

37-40 PP
19-22 BNG
12-14 PSOE
        2 GeC

Looks like PP underperformed

[jaichind]

The results page is quite lame. Insted of having, to compare to, the total final vote and share of 4 years ago, they could had the actual vote count of 4 years ago with the current precincts reporting.

It also deceptively (no on purpose of course) list Podemos as a new party and does not show the sharp vote share drop from 2016

[jaichind]

So far the results looks pretty good for PP in Galicia.  I assume the count so far as a rural lean?

[jaichind]

With the count at 30%, the PP is still at 45 and GeC is at 0 eaten by the BNG. PP seats will drop, but Feijoo will hold in all likelihood. No room for surprise, sadly

Would there not be another seat drop for PP once Podemos gets above the threshold to get seats ?

[jaichind]

Results from the Basque Country: (51.1% counted)

40.1% PNV, 32 seats
27.6% Blidu, 22
13.5% PSOE, 9
  7.8% Podemos, 5
  6.8% PP+C's, 5
  1.9% Vox, 1

Vox!!!!!

[jaichind]

The Vox results are ridiculous, even if it ends winning that cheap seat for Alava

Wait, how did VOX win a seat with 1.9% of the vote. What is the threshold to win seats in Basque Country ?

[jaichind]

The Vox results are ridiculous, even if it ends winning that cheap seat for Alava

Wait, how did VOX win a seat with 1.9% of the vote. What is the threshold to win seats in Basque Country ?

Legally the threshold is at 3% in any of the three provinces. Vox is above threshold in Alava, the less populated province. All provinces return 25 seats each regardless population

Thanks for explaining

[jaichind]

With 71% of the vote counted, it starts to become stronger the possibility that GeC will not win a single seat.

Same question.  What is the threshold for winning seats?   I think there are 4 provinces so I would think GeC would cross the threshold somewhere.

[jaichind]

BNG and EH Bildu get great results. Podemos is the big loser

And PP+C's are also big losers, as Casado imposed his own candidate against the wishes of the regional PP.

It seems the trend is the decline of national parties losing ground to regional parties.

[jaichind]

Looks like there are a lot of polls being de facto released after the legal ban on polls.  If so what is the point of this law ?

[jaichind]

I assume exit polls will come out 8PM ?

[jaichind]

I assume exit polls will come out 8PM ?

I don't think in Spain they do exit polls. I think they present "predictions" based on polls in the days before polling day. But, not 100% sure.

Historically I believe Spain does have exit polls although some of them are, as you say, predictions based on last minute polling.  I was asking mostly in the context of the rules this year seems to be the last your of voting is reserved for those under quarantine which I imagine could delay or even cancel exit polls.