Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

Basque premier mediated between Mariano Rajoy and Carles Puigdemont ahead of the independence declaration by the Catalan parliament

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/28/inenglish/1551369776_890031.html

Basque premier Iñigo Urkullu testifying as a witness at the Supreme Court.
Basque premier Iñigo Urkullu testifying as a witness at the Supreme C
The premier of Spain’s Basque Country on Thursday confirmed that he did “mediation” work between the central and Catalan governments in a bid to stop things from ending up the way they eventually did: with a unilateral independence declaration and the application of emergency measures, including the sacking of the Catalan government by Madrid and a seven-month freeze on regional self-rule (...)

This testimony is very interesting and quite telling as well. It was not a secret that Urkullu and others mediated between the Spanish and the Catalan governments. Recently the Spanish Right created a political storm over the proposal (poorly explained by Deputy PM Carmen Calvo) to sppoint a "rapporteur", in order to coordonate the meetings of a future Catalan party talks. Casado and Rivera cried "high treason" and went to Colón Square with Abascal, making the Vox's campaign.

The CIS has published its monthly poll and as always, the numbers are just ridiculous:

Everything you need to know about the CIS poll is in El Mundo Today

https://www.elmundotoday.com/2019/02/la-senora-del-psoe-que-responde-a-las-encuestas-del-cis-vuelve-a-pronosticar-la-victoria-de-pedro-sanchez/?fbclid=IwAR39WQUM88T-W_v2hLQDx5szA5JspmBc6JIag8Ik47PBdToMbLMJOIV8REs

I predict that Pedro Sánchez is going to win as that woman did, or at least the PSOE will come first. The question is the margin and its influence in the final composition of the parliament. I would take a beer with the 'traitor' Pedro Sánchez too...

[Velasco]

Woman's Day demonstrations will take place in four days. According to a 40dB poll released yesterday by El País 64.5% of women under 25 declare themselves feminist, almost twice than 5 years ago. Support for feminism decreases among women aged between 35 and 54 years and increases again among those aged above 55. Men are less concerned: 45.9% under 25 declare themselves feminist and the percentage decreases with older age.

Nearly a half of women and a third of men think that the goal of feminism is the real equality between genders. PSOE and Podemos voters agree at a higher rate; in contrast 70% of Vox voters rejects that feminism pursues equality.

Podemos and PSOE are rated as the most feminist parties with a great difference over Cs, PP and Vox:

The most important goals of the feminist movement are, in decreasing order: eliminate the glass ceiling, fight gender based violence, harassment and sexual assaults, gender stereotypes, domestic work equally, abortion, gender quotas, inclusive language.

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2019/03/03/actualidad/1551638433_568255.html

A Spanish ultraconservative organization has launched a campaign against "feminazis"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/01/inenglish/1551428604_932895.html

   
Spanish ultraconservative Catholic organization Hazte Oír (Make Yourself Heard) has launched a bus campaign against “feminazis” and what it considers “radical feminism.

he campaign calls on Spain’s conservative political leaders – Pablo Casado from the Popular Party (PP), Albert Rivera from Ciudadanos (Citizens) and Santiago Abascal from the far-right party Vox  – to repeal the 2004 gender violence law and legal protections granted by Spanish regions to the LGBTQI community.

The bus will travel through several Spanish cities until International Women’s Day on March 8, when a women’s strike and demonstration have been planned.

“It’s not gender violence, it’s domestic violence” is the main message plastered on the bus. “Gender laws discriminate against men. Casado, Rivera, Abascal: Repeal the gender laws,” is written below.

The bus also features an image of Adolf Hitler wearing makeup and the symbol of feminism on his military cap, above the hashtag “#StopFeminazis,” (...)

On the other hand, Cs launched a somewhat misguided "liberal feminist" manifesto in a desperate attempt to differentiate from Vox. Oranges admit the existence of gender based violence and commit themselves against that plague. They say that feminism is not a monopoly of the left. In my opinion, the problem is their idea of "liberalism" in relation to prostitution and surrogacy. Cs advocates for a regulation of these practices, considering that being into prostitution and womb renting are a matters of free choice, ignoring the socioeconomic circumstances that force women to sell their bodies.

As you see, feminism is a campaign issue.

The last thing appearing in the Wikipedia's summary of polls is a Key Data analysis ("poll of polls") released by Público that estimates the following results:

PSOE 25.1%, PP 21.5%, Cs 18%, UP 14.5%, Vox 10.9%, ERC 3.1%, PDeCAT 1.5%, EAJ-PNV 1.3%

Seats estimated:

[Velasco]

On the other hand, Cs launched a somewhat misguided "liberal feminist" manifesto in a desperate attempt to differentiate from Vox. Oranges admit the existence of gender based violence and commit themselves against that plague. They say that feminism is not a monopoly of the left. In my opinion, the problem is their idea of "liberalism" in relation to prostitution and surrogacy. Cs advocates for a regulation of these practices, considering that being into prostitution and womb renting are a matters of free choice, ignoring the socioeconomic circumstances that force women to sell their bodies.

The same argument can be made against wage labour, which is precisely why I disagree with such arguments against prostitution and surrogacy - I consider them morally equivalent to wage labour, and the reactionary right arguments against prostitution and surrogacy are also based on the premise that they are not morally equivalent with wage labour.

My opinion is that prostitution and surrogacy imply the commodification of the women's body, not to mention the sordid elements surrounding prostitution and sexual exploitation. Wage labour implies that you sell your workforce to the employer, not necessarily your body in a sexually exploitative way. Maybe there's a difference after all, but possibly all these things are to be discused in other boards... As for surrogacy, I  just heard to Inés Arrimadas saying that Cs only supports it when surrogacy is "altruist", not the "womb renting". I find difficult to imagine a woman of middle or high socioeconomic status breeding a child for other woman only for altruist reasons. Apparently the Cs folks think otherwise

[Velasco]

Valencia premier Ximo Puig (PSOE) calls regional election on April 28, alongside general elections. This decision is aimed to increase turnout, taking afvantage of the Pedro Sánchez's traction and give nationwide visibility to the Valencia region. PSOE governs in coalition with leftwing regionalist Compromis and the Podemos confidence and supply. Compromis was opposed to this date, preferring May 26 alongside local elections. Compromis is led by deputy premier Mónica Oltra; another leading figure of the regionalists is the mayor of the capital city of Valencia Joan Ribó.

[Velasco]

Time to repost the 2015 map

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Valencian_regional_election

[Velasco]

Valencia premier Ximo Puig (PSOE) calls regional election on April 28, alongside general elections.

Very, very risky. A regional election on April 28 means a worse result for Compromis, securing the PSPV's status as the main left-wing party, but it also means that the campaign will probably be nationalized, helping the right-wing parties. Could be the political suicide of the year.

The snap election in Andalusia was already a political suicide. Susana Diaz miscalculated her forces, expecting to win easily without the help of her enemy Pedro Sánchez and the national PSOE. The plan of Susana Diaz was to repeat her deal with Ciudadanos and wait the right moment to adjust accounts with Pedro Sánchez, once the fragile coalition with Podemos and the peripheral nationalists was beginning to break down. Then she could take revenge. The wear of the Andalusian socialists after 37 years in government and the corruption scandals (ERE case and others), as well as the repercusions of the Catalan conundrum, created the conditions for disaster. Four previous regional elections were called in Andalusia in coincidence with the Spanish general elections. In all cases the PSOE performed well.

Ximo Puig appears to be a pragmatist. He supported Susana Diaz in the leadership contest, but now he has an acceptable relationship with Pedro Sánchez (the PM's right hand José Luis Abalos is Valencian). Puig is seeking to  repeat a left-wing majority, because a deal with Cs is very unlikely in Valencia. Cs regional candidate Toni Cantó says that Puig is a  Trojan Horse of the Catalans. Puig is fron Morella, a small town of the Castellón province located near to the border with Aragon and Catalonia, in the NW corner of the region (see the deep red in the map). He is more moderate than Susana Diaz and other socialist 'barons' in what concerns the management of the Catalan crisis. His relationship with Compromis has been reasonably good, although the move to call a snap election is opposed by Mónica Oltra (however she stated the coalition will be repeated, although she hopes to win and be the next premier). Obviously Puig is seeking to reinforce the PSPV-PSOE at the expense of Compromis. The move is a relief for Unidos Podemos as well, because the cpincidence with general elections might help to reduce losses. Puig is taking a risk, but maybe this tactical move will work (or maybe not).

[Velasco]

PP will not attend the Women's Day march today while Pablo Casado attacks "left-wing feminists"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/07/inenglish/1551946883_713484.html

Spain’s Popular Party (PP) has announced it will not be attending the demonstration in Madrid for International Women’s Day on Friday, March 8. In a press release, the opposition conservative group defended its decision on the grounds that the declaration that will be read out at the march is “politicized” and “partisan.”

“Far-left parties want to monopolize this demonstration, looking to create division and conflict between men and women, and even between women of different ideologies,” the party stated.

However, PP leader Pablo Casado told members that they could still join the women’s general strike, which has also been called for Friday, or attend the demonstration if they wanted to, according to sources from the PP (...)

Female leaders within the PP, including the vice secretaries of communication Marta González, of social policy Cuca Gamarra and of studies and programs Andrea Levy, had planned to attend the Friday protest but changed their mind when they saw the declaration that would be read at the march, said PP sources.

In one paragraph, the text says: “This year, we join the global cry of women in Brazil, in the United States, in Italy, in India and in other parts of the world against the patriarchal reactions to women’s progress towards achieving our rights, and against the right and far right that have placed women and migrants as the top priority of their ultraliberal, racist and patriarchal offensive.” (...)

While I think it's undeniable the radical and the far right are misogynist and it's  necessary to denounce leaders like Trump or Bolsonaro (among others) in a Women's Day march, possibly it would have been better to negotiate the declaration's wording. Despite Casado and some radicals in the PP, there some are right-wing women believing in gender equality (feminism is not about sex war) that should be in the march. However and in my view, the double standard of PP and Cs with regards to Vox detracts legitimacy to their complaints.

Vox member arrested on alleged sexual abuse of disabled man.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/06/inenglish/1551879031_488424.html

Spanish political party Vox is trying to distance itself from José Antonio Ortiz Cambray, who until now had been the emerging far-right group’s visible face in the Catalan city of Lleida, but on Tuesday was arrested on accusations of sexually abusing at least one person with a severe disability, according to police sources consulted by EL PAÍS.

In an official statement released by Vox, which garnered a surprise result in the Andalusian regional elections late last year, the party claimed that the detained man “does not occupy any role of responsibility in Vox and is just a grassroots member.” The messages posted by the party on Twitter and Instagram in which he was presented as its president in Lleida have been deleted (...)

In other news, Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias will return to a more active role on March 23, after his paternity leave. This image was briefly posted in the party's Twitter account and raised criticism due to its "messianic" message. It says:

"VUELVE" ("HE COMES BACK"). "Pablo Iglesias meets again with the people".

Maybe this is not the best way to refute the personality cult allegations...

 

[Velasco]

Actually, forget what I said earlier, the strike was actually a (partial) success this year.

Electric consumption is down 2% right now. That is indeed low, but putting it in comparison to other strikes puts them into context:

-The 2012 general strike saw roughly a 14% decrease.

-The 2017 Catalan strike saw roughly a 3% decrease

-The 2018 women's strike saw no decrease at this time, peaking at a 2% decrease around 8:30 (the time of the protests)

Assuming the energy consumption data follows a 2018-like pattern, that means the strike will see a 5% decrease or so at its peak, and a 2% decrease over the whole day.

Those are numbers comparable to the Catalan strike, albeit spread out across the whole country, and with less people to strike (7.5 million Catalans vs 23 million women, and that doesn't count the handful of men who follow the strike as well)

Still, certainly a lot bigger than last year.

It's not posible to compare the women's strike with a general strike for various reasons. To begin eith this one is for women: men are asked to support it by replacing women in all the tasks usually performed by the latter, including non-paid activities traditionally feminine such as homework and caring. Another aspect tp take into account is that unions are not calling the strike, just giving legal coverage. Mainstream unions (UGT and CCOO) are supporting 2h strikes by shift work, while other unions are supporting 24h strikes. Women can choose one option or another. Comparisons in electric consumption decrease with the 2012 general strike or the 2017 strike in Catalonia are not appropiate.

[Velasco]

El País:  "Students lead the protests for the International Women's Day"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/08/inenglish/1552051103_915747.html

Young women are at the center of the protests that got underway this morning in Spain, to coincide with the March 8 strike for International Women’s Day.

In Castellón, a group of protestors prevented the president of the Popular Party (PP), Pablo Casado, from delivering a speech ahead of the campaign for local and regional elections. A group made up mostly of women banged pots, blew on whistles and shouted out messages such as: “You are the patriarchy!” and “Casado, you machista, you’re on our list!” The PP leader has openly criticized “leftist feminism” and said he would not attend today’s march in Madrid because he claims it has been co-opted by the political left (...)

Feminist marches throughout Spain were massive. According to the government's delegations, around 350k gathered in Madrid (170k the previous year, according the same sources) and 220k in Valencia. Local police estimated 200k people in the Barcelona march. Even taking the estimation made by El País for the Madrid march, which is 230k at the declaration's reading, the figure is much higher tan the attendance to the right wing rally in Colón Square. I'm not implying a correlation between these figures and possible election results, just to be clear. I think it's undeniable these protests will have political repercussions, but it's up to see if they can contribute to mobilize certain voter groups (for instance: left-wing, young and female). In any case, I think these marches are positive because I believe that achieving real gender equality is a worthwile cause.

Gallery:

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/08/album/1552057387_882592.html#foto_gal_1

NYT has an interesting peace on the raise of the minimum wage

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/business/spain-minimum-wage.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FSpain

As Spain grapples with a turbulent political crisis, one of Europe’s last Socialist governments may soon fall amid the rise of a new nationalism in the country. But whatever the outcome, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is leaving behind a signature legacy: a record increase in the minimum wage.

The 22 percent rise that took effect in January, to 1,050 euros (about $1,200) a month, is the largest in Spain in 40 years. Yet the move has ignited a debate over whether requiring employers to pay more of a living wage is a social watershed, or a risky attempt at economic engineering (...)

[Velasco]

Are PP, Vox or C's saying they'll repeal Sanchez's minimum wage increase?

As far as I know, the PP supports a gradual increase of minimum wage similar to the one agreed between the Mariano Rajoy administration, unions and employers organizations. PP submitted a counterproposal in late 2018 to increase minimum wage to 773 Euros in 2019, instead of the 900 Euros agreed between PSOE and UP.

On the other hand, Cs is proposing to create a commission, something like a panel of experts or a board of economists, an advisory organ that reports to the government. The minimum wage would be fixed by the government on the recommendations of said panel.

I don't know what is the Vox proposal on minimum wage.

 

I guess PP and Cs will incorporate these proposals in their platforms. Vox has a 100 point manifesto plenty of populist hooks, but I'm afraid they don't care very much about details. I don't know if these parties are going to launch an overt campaign against the increase of minimum wage. Possibly it will be more profitable for them campaigning on other issues related to identity politics.

So according to the polls, the Basque Nationalist Party is going to decide who would become PM?
What is their opinion of VOX? I guess they won't like supporting an hardcore centralist party?

Obviously the PNV folks have a terrible opinion of a party like Vox that stands for the abolition of regional autonomy. There was already a big concern in the PNV ranks last year, when Cs took the lead in the polls. Cs is not as radically centralist as to support the abolition of the autonomous communuties. However the Oranges are very vocal against the special tax system ruling in the Basque Country (Concierto Económico), because they consider it's a privilege. Cs is more centralist than PP on this question, since the PP doesn't oppose the Concierto. The PNV has made advantageous agreements in the past with PP administrations (either Rajoy or Aznar) in exchange for confidence and supply or support for the national budget. However the PNV will never support a coalition that incorporates Cs or Vox,  given their radical centralist stance. Basque nationalists are more prone to support a government led by Pedro Sánchez,  although not without monetary or other considerations. The problem for Pedro Sánchez is not the PNV, rather it's the reliance upon Catalan separatist parties. The decision of Cs to put a veto on Sánchez and his party fixes two opposite blocks and leaves no room for other combinations

[Velasco]

Ciudadanos (Cs) held primary elections on Sunday to nominate candidates for the upcoming elections in April and May. The primary election to select the regional candidate in Castilla y León turned out to be a fiasco, the first serious setback for Albert Rivera and his controversial policy of "recruiting talent" from other parties. Independent pre-candidate Silvia Clemente was proclaimed on Sunday over national deputy Francisco Igea, after winning the contest by a narrow margin of 35 votes. The nomination of Clemente was suspended on the following day, after her rival demanded an audit of the voting records. It was discovered the sum of the votes for the candidates exceeded the votes cast by 81. The party's guarantee commission declared these votes null and proclaimed Igea as the winner. As said in a previous post, Silvia Clemente is a controversial and long time PP member who was speaker of the regional assembly and held several portfolios in the regional government. This apparent voting fraud adds up to various suspicions over her past activities. Clemente had the overt support of Cs secretary general José Manuel Villegas. Nobody at Cs has taken the responsibility for the voting fraud, nor gave any explanation aside saying it was "someone's error". Bad business for a party that claims to be a champion against corruption.

60% of undecided voters are women, according to the last CIS survey. In other words, 4 million women have yet to decide who to vote in April and May

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/05/inenglish/1551780068_025839.html

The survey, which was conducted in January, shows that of all the respondents who said they still didn’t know who to vote for, nearly 60% – around four million voters – were women.

This could explain why political campaigning has been focusing on women: the PP is suggesting a national pact on the salary gap, while Ciudadanos has come up with a “liberal feminist manifesto” that includes regulatory measures for prostitution and surrogacy. Meanwhile, the Unidos Podemos coalition, made up of the United Left and the anti-austerity Podemos, has changed its name to the more feminine-sounding Unidas Podemos.

Although the PP does not embrace feminism (it does not see the need for a collective movement to fight for women’s rights), it is the Spanish party with the highest number of female voters, followed closely by the PSOE. The CIS poll shows that 57% of respondents who said they will vote for the PP are women. That figure was 55% for the Socialists (...)

[Velasco]

First of all, there has been a deal in Navarra between UPN (Right wing regionalists, traditionally close to PP), PP and Cs to run together in the general and regional elections

Indeed. This deal forces Cs to modulate its stance against the special tax system of Navarre, which is more or less similar to that of the neighbouring Basque Country. On the other hand, this opposition is the main reason of the Cs weakness in the "Foral Territories" (Navarre and the Basque provinces). The chances of winning seats for Cs in the Navarrese regional elections and in the Basque provincial elections (Diputaciones Forales) are very slim running in its own. I heard the following rationale to Luis Garicano, who is the Cs chief economist and top candidate for the EP elections: Cs will respect the economic agreement of Navarre because it's in the Spanish Constitution; however, Cs is still against these regional particularities and would support the abolition of Fueros and economic agreements in the event of a constitutional reform.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque_Economic_Agreement

he Economic Agreement (Basque: kontzertu ekonomikoa, Spanish: Concierto económico) is a juridical instrument that regulates the taxation and financial relations between the General Administration of the Kingdom of Spain and the Autonomous Community of the Basque Country.

In other news, PP leader Pablo Casado is asking VOX not to run in small provinces (in terms of seats), in order to prevent a split of the rightwing vote that favours PSOE.

El País: "Spain’s Vox gets nearly €3m in public funds despite tough talk on subsidies"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/13/inenglish/1552465079_939994.html

This combined income comes out to just over €2.9 million, of which 98% represents public subsidies for election expenses (nearly €1.7 million) and annual allocations to help political groups with parliamentary representation carry out their duties (approximately €1.2 million).

There is a faction of the CUP that intends to run in the general elections for the Catalan provinces. This decision may provoke a split in the organization, whose traditional policy (endorsed in a recent meeting) is not running in Spanish elections. The CUP is a far-left pro-independence party that advocates the unilateral path for the Catalan Republic. Its deputies in the regional parlament ceased to support the Catalan government, criticizing the excessive "autonomism" of the Torra administration. The CUP was founded as a sum of local candidacies running in local elections throughout Catalonia. It gained a small but loyal voter base on grassroots work. Subsequently in October 2012 the CUP ran its first regional elections, getting 3.5% and winning 3 seats. In the September 2015 elections the CUP more than doubled its share, getting 8.2% and winning 10 seats. The reason of this increase is that many ERC voters disgruntled by the coalition with the right wing nationalists (ERC and CDC ran together in the JxSI ticket) switched to the CUP. By the December 2017 elections the CUP decreased again (4.4% and 4 seats). Much of the CUP voters in regional elections went to En Comú Podem and ERC in the 2015 and 2016 general elections (others presumably abstained).

[Velasco]

PP leader Pablo Casado is getting rid of the Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría supporters in the compilation of electoral lists. Former Labour minister Fátima Báñez announced that she quits politics, following other retiring members of the Rajoy administration close to Santamaría. Additionally the former general coordinator of the PP Fernando Martínez Maíllo (the "Rajoy's Fireman") has been ousted from the top position in Zamora province. The cleansing of the rival faction is creating some unrest within the PP ranks. The former ministers who supported María Dolores de Cospedal in the first round of the leadership contest have been rewarded for their support to Casado in the second round.  Former Justice minister Rafael Catalá will top the list in Cuenca and former Agriculture minister Isabel García de Tejerina will run for Valladolid. The star draftee of the Casado's project is Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, a journalist and former deputy (2008-2015) very close to Aznar who leads the FAES foundation. Álvarez de Toledo replaces current PP parliamentary spokeswoman Dolors Montserrat as the top candidate in Barcelona province, where she will have to compete against the Cs rising star Inés Arrimadas. Aside from her, the profile of the new candidates picked by Casado is not very high. It's clear the PP leader wants a loyal and ideologically homogeneous parliamentary group that doesn't create problems, particularly when electoral results are expected to be bad. A right-wing majority in general elections could save Casado's face, as it happened to Juan Manuel Moreno in Andalusia.

On the other hand Pedro Sánchez is facing a relative opposition from Susana Díaz and other regional 'barons'' in the compilation of the PSOE lists. The Andalusia and Aragon branches are negotiating the lists around the clock with the federal PSOE. Four cabinet members will top provincial lists in Andalusia. There is some conflict in Seville, where the top candidate will be Finance minister María Jesús Montero. Pedro Sánchez wants to place two members of the federal executive loyal to him in the positions 2 and 4: the delegate of the government in Andalusia Alfonso Díaz de Celis and adviser in La Moncloa Francisco Salazar. Given the 'zipper list' system, these nominations would displace a Susana Díaz henchman called Antonio Paradas to the 6th position with very little chances of being elected. Pradas played a starring role in the ousting of Pedro Sánchez from the PSOE leadership, so he is not loved by the PM. The PSOE's federal commission has veto power in the compilation of electoral lists.

Podemos is facing problems in Galicia, where the coalition of the 2015 and 2016 general elections is broken. En Marea will run in its own as a separate party, while the nationalist party Anova decided not to contest the general elections. Deprived of its nationalist partners, Podemos will ally with IU and Equo (presumably under the Unidas Podemos banner). En Marea was founded in November 2015 as a coalition incorporating Podemos, Anova, IU and some municipal alliances (Marea Atlántica, Compostela Oberta and Ferrol en Común) that succeed in the May 2015 elections. The election of a new party leadership in late 2018 led to a split between the supporters of leader Luis Villares and the allied parties (Podemos, Anova, IU). The faction supporting Villares seeks the complete independence of the organization, in order to create a separate parliamentary group in the Spanish Congress. Currently the En Marea deputies are ascribed to the UP parliamentary group (4 out of 5 members voted to pass the 2019 budget and 1 voted against).

[Velasco]

A Catalan pro-independence march took place yesterday in Madrid. Attendance figures vary depending on sources: the police says 18k, the organizers 120k and El País mewspaper estimates 55k. The most important thing is that people marched peacefully and the police forces of the oppressive Spanish state prevented incidents with far-right elements. Actually the people of Madrid is quite friendly and hospitable and treated well the Catalans.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/16/madrid-braces-for-major-catalan-independence-march

Tens of thousands of Catalan independence supporters have marched through central Madrid in protest at the trial of 12 separatist leaders who helped organise the failed bid for independence from Spain in 2017 and to renew their call for a vote on secession.

The demonstration was organised by two powerful civil society groups, the Catalan National Assembly (ANC) and Òmnium Cultural, around the slogan: “Self-determination is not a crime. Democracy is about deciding.”

Here's a sample of the Vox campaign in WhatsApp. The far-right party launched a successful campaign in social networks for the Andalusian elections, targeting particular market niches such as hunters, bullfight lovers, participants in Holy Week processions (cofrades), angry fathers in divorce process...

"Facing with those who only offer fear, the #EspañaViva will show once again that it is not afraid of anything or anyone

On April 28 make history with your vote

This video has to be seen all over Spain! Resend to all your contacts and spread it in your groups of friends and family"

[Velasco]

Catalan premier Quim Torra gets 24 hours to remove separatist symbols from public buildings

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/19/inenglish/1552982328_757950.html

   
Spanish election officials have given Catalan premier Quim Torra another 24 hours to remove pro-independence symbols from all public buildings owned or run by the regional government.

A week ago, the Central Electoral Board (JEC) reminded the Catalan government that public authorities have the legal obligation to preserve political neutrality ahead of the local, regional, general and European elections coming up in April and May.

The move chiefly affects public buildings displaying yellow ribbons, used to show support for separatist leaders standing trial for rebellion, and esteladas, the unofficial flags used by supporters of Catalan independence.

The body that monitors elections in Spain has asked the government delegate in Catalonia, Teresa Cunillera, to check that these instructions are followed, and warned Torra that failure to do so could have administrative and criminal consequences.

The JEC rejected Torra’s arguments that “the estelada flag is a symbol that represents a desire for freedom and makes a democratic, legitimate, legal and non-violent claim.”

Election officials noted that these symbols may indeed symbolize “the aspirations of one part of Catalan society, but not all of it. It is a legitimate symbol that may be used by political groups in their campaigning, but not by public powers, at least not during election periods, as they have an obligation to maintain rigorous political neutrality as per Article 50.2 of the Electoral Regime Law (LOREG).”

Vox leader Santiago Abascal is disappeared fom public forum. This absence is deliberate and is aimed to prevent the candidate's image is eroded. The lack of visibility of the Vox leader contrasts sharply with the feverish activity of the PP leader. Actually the message of Vox is being conveniently amplified by Pablo Casado and it's for free. A prominent Vox member called Iván Espinosa de los Monteros suggested in recent statements that separatist and Marxist parties should be banned. Vox is recruiting as candidates a series of retired generals, as well as former PP members from the radical wing such as former deputy Gil Lázaro.

WhatsApp is very popular in Spain and parties like PP and Vox are turning to it in order to reach a wider audience

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/18/inenglish/1552900378_672737.html

During the run-up to the last general election in Spain, political parties used Facebook, Twitter and Instagram to spread their messages. This year, with a snap general election called for April 28 and local, regional and European elections set for May 26, it appears they are turning to WhatsApp, the most popular social network in Spain (...)

Recruiting former generals and hyperactivity in social networks, while avoiding the public exposition of the candidates, are common points between the Vox and the Bolsonaro campaigns

[Velasco]

However, this all pales in comaprison to Vox's most colourful candidate so far. Fernando Paz, candidate for Congress in Albacete. He has apparently compared homosexuality with a disease, repeatedly praised francoism and denied the Holocaust. He has also taken part in meetings of neonazi parties like Alianza Nacional or Falange.

I imagine he will be purged from the party (but not the Francoist general). But still this definitely can't be helping Vox.

This Fernando Paz is indeed very "colorful". I'm somewhat skeptical in what regards your last assumption. I'm pretty sure the Vox folks were fully aware of his "controversial opinions". This guy is not only well known in far right circles, he has intervened in talk shows like El Gato al Agua defending Billy El Niño ("Billy The Kid" a renowned torturer of the Franco's police). My impression is that Vox is deliberately promoting this kind of "politically incorrect" candidates, because they perceive the context is very favourable to be openly and unashamedly extremist. No, I don't think that Vox will purge him. For the sake of precision, Alianza Nacional ("National Alliance") is neo-Nazi, but Falange is... Falangista (or Joseantoniana).

On a more or less related note, there is another allegedly neo-Nazi organization called Hogar Social that now is a political party. Hogar Social began as a sort of charity organization that helps only Spaniards. It gained visibility by occupying some emblematic buildings in Madrid. HS has links with Casa Pound in Italy. Apparently the surge of Vox leaves no room for other far-right party. According to El Confidencial, the dream of the HS leader Melisa Rodríguez is fading

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2019-01-07/el-boom-de-vox-y-el-ocaso-de-hogar-social-madrid-el-lento-final-del-sueno-de-melisa_1741750/

The lovely Vox Gang (left to right): Iván Espinosa de los Monteros, Santiago Abascal, Javier Ortega Smith* and Rocío Monasterio

The statements by Iván Espinosa de los Monteros are very interesting. He regards ïñigo Errejón as "one of the most dangerous foes". He says that behind his nice boy face the Podemos founder hides an "anti-Spanish and radical leftist bile extremely dangerous for our country". He also regards Cs leader Albert Rivera as a leftist that attracts rightwing voters beguiled by his clean and shaved appearance, in contrast to the "dirty" and pony-tailed Pablo Iglesias. He also said something about the "pretty girls" of Cs, likely referring to Inés Arrimadas. He admits having supported PP in the past, but he stopped voting them "as one quits hard drugs". In short: the man is arrogant, contemptuous and sexist. He might not be brilliant from an intellectual point of view, but he is politically incorrect and speaks in direct and forceful sentences ideal for Twitter and WhatsApp. Prestigious journalist Iñaki Gabilondo says that Vox represents the Francoism, something he thought it was left behind. The far-right was always hanging around, but it was hidden and to a great extent contained in the PP That's all in the past, for a number of reasons. Now the genie is out of the bottle: welcome to the Age of Populism.

* Ortega Smith represents the private prosecution in the trial to the Catalan separatist leaders and he is revealing as a pretty incompetent attorney. I would say it's a good thing.

[Velasco]

Political debate in Spain is not focused on serious issues such as economy, climate change or the future of pensions. These subjects are crucial for the future, but they are too complex to be condensed in a tweet. Instead our leaders prefer launching wars on symbols or foolish proposals, turning the political arena into a circus. Two examples:

Catalan premier Quim Torra is getting everyone tired, including his coalition partners

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/22/inenglish/1553263956_201609.html

The regional premier of Catalonia, Quim Torra, is facing a criminal prosecution that could see him barred from office over his refusal to remove pro-independence symbols from public buildings ahead of the upcoming national, regional and local elections in Spain.

Spain’s Central Electoral Board (JEC) had instructed the Catalan regional government to take down the signs and symbols from the buildings that it owns or manages. These symbols include yellow ribbons, a sign of support for the pro-independence leaders who were placed in custody ahead of their Supreme Court trial, which is currently ongoing.

orra was given instructions by the JEC to remove the material 11 days ago, and a deadline to do so by Tuesday afternoon. But the hardline separatist leader opted to ignore the order and instead requested a report from the Catalan ombudsman for advice. The Síndic de Greuges, as the ombudsman is known, advised the regional government that it should take down the symbols.

n response, on Thursday Torra changed the banner on the balcony of the Catalan government’s main building. But it was swapped for an identical sign calling for the release of “political prisoners,” the only difference being the use of a white ribbon instead of a yellow one.

On Friday, plainclothes officers from the regional police force, the Mossos d’Esquadra, officially notified the premier’s office of the JEC’s instruction, according to police sources. The Catalan police had been ordered to remove the material themselves before 3pm on Friday. On receiving that notification, Torra gave the order for the material to be removed. Hours later, a new banner went up with the message: “Freedom of opinion and expression.” (...)

Vox leader wants that Spaniards can keep guns at home, alleging they are a "common sense party" that supports the right to self defense. Apparently the rest of parties are not under the influence of the NRA.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/21/inenglish/1553170075_849436.html

The leader of the Spanish far-right political party Vox, Santiago Abascal, has called for the country’s criminal code and gun regulations to be reformed to make it easier to own a gun and to ensure people who shoot home invaders are not prosecuted by the law, as is the case in the United States.

In an interview with the weapons publication Armas.es last weekend, just days after the deadly shooting at two mosques in New Zealand, Abascal proposed “a radical and urgent change to the law” to allow Spaniards not only “to keep a weapon at home but also to ensure they can use it in situations of real threat to their life without having to face a legal nightmare, prison sentences or even compensation to the families of the criminals who assaulted them.” (...)

[Velasco]

I think the map in the previous post shows that Podemos (and its allies in Catalonia, Valencia and Galicia) performed strongly in peripheral regions by 2015 and 2016. Now the Podemos alliances in Valencia and Galicia are broken and En Comú Podem is expected to lose support in Catalonia. Back in 2004 and 2008, the PSOE got extraordinary results in Catalonia and the Basque Country, as well gained ground in Galicia and the Islands..  but there was a PP surge in Valencia by the 2008 election. I think the PSOE will make gains in Catalonia,  but it will be miles away from the  2004-2008 marks. I'd say peripheral regions with vernacular languages (particularly Catalonia and the Basque Country) tend to support the Spanish Left in general elections when there's a perceived threat to their identity posed by the Spanish Right. That was the case in the elections won by Zapatero in 2004 and 2008. The Podemos success in Catalonia could be partly motivated by its stance favorable to a referendum on self determination. On the other hand, I think it's likely the crisis in Catalonia will help to continue the rightward trend in Southern Spain. Anyway there is a lot of volatility that makes the next election outcome very uncertain. It'd be better to wait results in order to see the evolution of geographical trends .

[Velasco]

Yesterday I overlooked this. Finally Vox "purged" pseudo-historian Fernando Paz claiming ignorance of his opinions on the Holocaust and homosexuality. According to party sources (a WhatsApp statement made by a certain Manuel Mariscal) Fernando Paz resigned his candidacy. Apparently the reason behind the "purge" is that Vox is trying to establish relations and get economic support from people linked to the right wing of the Republican Party (Iván Espinosa de los Monteros visited the US in previous days) and a candidate supporting the Holocaust denial is not acceptable for them. Also, the Jewish community on Spain showed concern with the candidacy of a person with such lamentable opinions. The size of the Spanish Jewish community is small (around 40k), but it has a good relationship with the country's political and economic right.

However Vox recruited Jorge Cutillas to run for La Rioja. Cutillas is a candidate with good fascist credentials, a former  member of Fuerza Nueva (FN) that later joined other far right parties. Cutillas was accused of the stoning, alongside other FN members, of some buses with 250 Basque schoolchildren that were visiting Madrid in 1982. Cutillas claims that year he was in Ceuta doing military service.

[Velasco]

Thing is, 1 election is an outlier, but several elections make a trend.

Even if you did a hypothetical 2000-2011 map (the only election you did not mention), it wouldn't be terribly different from that one for the most part.

I think the movement in Catalonia and the Basque country is not based on the Spanish left performing better, but instead on a nationalist realignment.

It's true that several elections make a trend, but the fact is that Podemos and En Comú Podem won the last two general general elections in the Basque Country and Catalonia while PP and PSOE fell sharply. On the other hand, the PSOE got a very strong result in the 2008 elections there. In both cases the Spanish Left got some "borrowed" nationalist votes, a tactical support that made possible in 2008 the best historical results for the PSOE in the Basque Country and the second best (after 1982) in Catalonia. The generic left (Spanish and peripheral nationalist) didn't perform well in 2000 and 2011, with the exception of the surge of Amaiur in the Basque Country and Navarre after ETA ceased terrorist activity. In what regards the realignment of the nationalist vote, the situations in Catalonia and the Basque Country are different. While in last general elections ERC surpassed the heirs of Convergència in Catalonia, the PNV remains as the hegemonic force of the Basque nationalism despite the surge of Amaiur (later EH Bildu).

Catalonia

2000: PSC-PSOE 34.4, CiU 28.8, PP  22.8, ERC 5.6, ICV 3.5, EUiA 2.2 (L 45.7 / R 51.6)
2004:  PSC-PSOE 39.4, CiU 20.8, ERC 15.9, PP 15.6, ICV-EUiA 5.6 (L 60.9 / R 36.4)
_{The high unpopularity of the second Aznar adminsitration in Catalonia damaged CiU tangentially and contributed to the spectacular increase of ERC from 1 to 8 seats in Congress.}
2008: PSC-PSOE 45.4, CiU 20.9, PP 16.4, ERC 7.8, ICV-EUiA 4.9, Cs 0.7 (L 58.1 / R 38.5)
2011: CiU 29.3, PSC-PSOE 26.6, PP 20.7, ICV-EUiA 8.1, ERC 7, UPyD 1.1 (L 41.7 / R 51.1)
_{It was the first time since 1977 that PSC-PSOE was not coming in first place}
2015: ECP 24.7, ERC 16, PSC-PSOE 15.7, DiL 15.1, Cs 13, PP 11.1 (L 56.4 / R 39.2)
_{The Podemos alliance with ICV, EUiA and BComú wins the first general elections held after the beginning of the drive to independence in 2012}.
2016: ECP 24.5, ERC 18.1, PSC-PSOE 16.1, CDC 13.9, PP 13.3, Cs 10.9 (L 58.7 / R 41.1)

Basque Country

2000: EAJ-PNV 30.4, PP 28.2, PSOE 23.3, EA 7.5, IU 5.4 (L 36.2 / R 58.6)
2004: EAJ-PNV 33.7, PSOE 27.2, PP 18.9, IU 8.2, EA 6.5, Aralar 3-1 (L 45 / R 52.6)
2008: PSOE 38.4, EAJ-PNV 27.1, PP 18.5, IU 4.5, EA 4.5, Aralar 2.6, UPyD 0.9 (L 50 / R 46.5)
2011: EAJ-PNV 27.4, Amaiur 24.1, PSOE 21.5, PP 17.8, IU 3.7, UPyD 1.8 (L 49.3 / R 47)
_{Amaiur incorporates Sortu (heirs of Batasuna), EA and Aralar. The ban of Batasuna introduced a factor of distortion in previous election results. Notice that PP didn't grow in its best election nationwide.}
2015: Podemos 25.9, EAJ-PNV 24.7, EH Bildu 15, PSOE 13, PP 11.6, Cs 4.1, IU 2.9 (L 56.8 / R 40.4) _{Podemos wins at the expense of the PSOE and EH Bildu}
2016: UP 29, EAJ-PNV 24.9, POE 14.2, EH Bildu 13.3, PP 12.8, Cs 3.5 (L 56.5 / R 37.5)

PSOE winning Barcelona and Tarragona (according to GAD3) means that socialists might win  next general elections in Catalonia. Let's see what say the polls tomorrow...

[Velasco]

40dB poll for El País with a seat projection not favourable for the right-wing bloc

If we have to believe what pollsters are telling us, Vox stopped its increase and is standing somewhere between 10% and 12%. However Vox is getting all the media attention and is the most popular party in social networks replacing Podemos. Is the polling industry aware of under the radar movements?

Podemos leader came back tonight in a rally that took place in Madrid. The message conveyed by Pablo Iglesias was, in my biased opinion, contradictory and unconvincing. He intended to be self-critical admitting that internal conflict has been shameful and damaging for Podemos, but on the other hand he continues hurling darts against rivals: "we made mistakes but we have never been on the wrong side" Iglesias made some recriminations to Madrid Mayor Manuela Carmena and demanded her to reveal which party she will support. Carmena said in a recent interview that she voted Podemos in past elections and has decided her vote in the next, but she doesn't want to say it publicly (it wouldn't be surprising that she intends to vote for the PSOE, but she is an independent after all). Carmena's ally and Iglesias' rival Ïñigo Errejón said that he will vote Podemos again, but stated there's too much sectarianism in the party and he feels liberated in his new platform for regional elections. Iglesias attacked the "Trio of Colón" (PP,Cs and Vox) and assumed that Podemos will be part of a coalition with the PSOE if they have the numbers, although hr doesn't rule out a deal between PSOE and Cs despite the promises of Albert Rivera. The Podemos leader states that he doesn't believe the polls, but I'd say there was some depression floating in the air and this is going to be a very difficult campaign for him. Thousands of people attended the rally, but sources say the square next to the Reina Sofía Museum was not filled completely. There are many valuable persons that are no longer in Podemos and they are missed.

[Velasco]

The Sonadxe poll for La Voz de Galicia predicts that Vox will come in thir place. The right-wing bloc would win 172 seats, 4 seats short of majority. The Left would win 148 seats, 28 short of a majority. The previous 40dB poll gives a chance for a PSOE-Cs majority, but according to the seat projection in this poll reds and oranges would be 19 seats short.

PSOE 26.9% (113 seats), PP 189% (78), VOX 13.9% (50), Cs 13.8% (44), UP 13.4% (35), Others 7.9% (30)

https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/elecciones/2019/03/23/vox-tercera-izquierda-baja-derecha-suma/00031553370410907718658.htm

.El Caudillo's long shadow

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/23/franco-ghost-exhumatiob-spain-elections-far-right-vox-party

It is little wonder, then, that these are bittersweet times for those who suffered under Franco and who have long yearned to see him exhumed from the Valley of the Fallen.

The activist, politician and writer Lidia Falcón, now 83, was arrested seven times under Franco and tortured by his thugs (...)

Falcón snorts at any parallels between Franco’s uprising in 1936 and the re-emergence of the far-right after a 40-year absence. But in Vox, “who have sprung up here overnight, like a mushroom in the woods”, she discerns a familiar kind of politics. “They’re the same people, except today it’s their grandchildren,” says Falcón. “A lot of fascists are rising to the surface now.”

She is not alone in her appraisal. In a recent interview, Iñaki Gabilondo, perhaps Spain’s best-known journalist, was asked how he would characterise Vox. “To me, it’s Francoism,” he told eldiario.es. “I was 33 when Franco died. That means I’d lived for 33 years … with Franco in my head, my heart, my world and my soul.”

Vox’s “ultra-Spanish, ultra-centralised thinking, based on fatherland, God, Spain and old values”, he added, was Francoism pure and simple. “It’s something totally recognisable because I lived it,” he said. “It’s exactly what we wanted to get rid of.”

[Velasco]

Finally ABC released the GAD3 poll. Narciso Michavila has good news for PSOE, bad for Cs and terrible for Podemos

The Left (PSOE+UP) gets a combined 42.4% winning 158-161 seats.

The Right (PP, Cs and Vox) gets a combined 46.5%, winning 155-164 seats. The coalition Navarra Suma (UPN, PP and Cs) would win 2 additional seats, but the rightwing bloc would be still short of a majority.

A PSOE-Cs alliance would be 4 to 8 seats short of a majority

Pedro Sánchez would need the support of ERC to win the investiture, alongside the support of UP, PNV and Compromís. With these numbers, the support of JxCAT (CDC) would not be necessary.

Other investiture options might involve someone's abstention in a second vote.  First investiture vote requires absolute majority (176 votes). Second investiture votes requires simple majority (more votes in favour than against).

[Velasco]

Why are CC on the right? Couldn't they support a PSOE government?

I wouldn't trust the graphs illustrating opinion polls very much. The last one is not good...

CC is a regionalist party of the Canary Islands. Ideologically the Canary Coalition is on the centre-right, although above all things it's a regional interests party. CC has governed the Canary Islands since 1991: most of the times in coalition with the PP, but occasionally in coalition with the PSOE or forming minority governments. CC made a coalition agreement with the PSOE after the 2015 regional elections, but currently governs in minority with the confidence and supply of the PP and the ASG (PSOE split in La Gomera island). In Madrid CC votes occasionally with PP and PSOE, usually depending on regional interests. Currently the relationship between PSOE and CC (central and regional governments) is not good. The CC deputy Ana Oramas abstained in the no confidence motion against Mariano Rajoy, but initially it was going to vote alongside PP and Cs. Oramas is regarded a good parliamentarian, but her party's support has dropped over the years. CC won 4 seats Congress at its peak, but currently it holds a single member for Santa Cruz de Tenerife.

[Velasco]

1 month an 1 day for the election and Albert Rivera is proposing a coalition agreement to Pablo Casado, overlooking both parties would need the Vox support. This offer sounds like Rivera is admitting that Cs is going to lose the battle for the hegemony of the Spanish Right. Casado replied that it sounds like a good idea if the Right has the numbers, but maybe it's too late to ensure a rightwing majority in Senate (Cs rejected a PP offer on a joint list). Albert Rivera is nervous because of the bad polling. José Antonio Zarzalejos, who is a former editor of the ABC newspaper and one of the smartest conservative analysts in Spain, warns that Vox is destroying the democratic Right (conservative PP and liberal Cs). In a recent interview to El País in Rome Steve Bannon says that PP and Cs are already speaking the Vox language: this is what the apostle of national-populism calls "take a product to market".

IU membership in Madrid voted against a coalition with Podemos for regional elections, against the wishes of national leader Alberto Garzón. IU Madrid will run with Anticapitalistas (far-left faction of Podemos) in a list called Madrid En Pie, so the alternative left will be splitted in three (Podemos, Más Madrid and the new list). Possibly this ensures a rightwing majority in the regional assembly. "Narcissism of the Small Differences". Headache. 

For my province of Las Palmas (which is also Velasco's province I think?) the lists we have are (as per usual, lists with a chance at getting seats nationally or just getting an ok result are coloured while minor lists are in black):

Canarian Coalition-Canarian Nationalist Party (CC-PNC)
Citizens-Party of the citizenry (Cs)
New Canaries (NCa)
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)
Canaries Now-Nationalist Alternative and Popular Unity (AHORA CANARIAS)
Communist Party of the Canarian People (PCPE)
Animalist Party against the Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)
For a Fairer World (PUM+J)
United We Can (Podemos-IU-Equo)
People's Party (PP)
Humanist Party (PH)
Zero Cuts-Green Group (Recortes Cero-GV)
Vox (Vox)

Yes, I'm resident Las Palmas province. The PCPE folks are the greatest, IMO: they never fail.