Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021 (user search)
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  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195300 times)
mileslunn
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« Reply #25 on: September 03, 2019, 04:39:46 PM »

What is the reason Iglesias and Sanchez are so adamant on their stances?  You would think the risk of a right wing government would be enough to push one to blink?  While polls suggest PSOE will gain far from a majority so they will have to agree eventually.  While I think elections are most likely, if the parties were smart they would realize its a huge gamble and find a way out.  I suspect most progressives in Spain care more about policies than which party does it just as I suspect many on the right would accept a coalition or agreement.  Italy just formed a coalition of two parties that have even less in common so in most of Europe coalitions are the norm, although Spain doesn't have a history of them.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #26 on: September 09, 2019, 02:17:50 PM »

It seems another election would be pointless.  While unlikely right would get a majority but not impossible if turnout falls enough, what advantage do either have?  There is no chance of the PSOE getting a majority on its own and Citizens have ruled out working with PSOE, so an agreement between PSOE-Podemos will be needed after November if they are able to form government.  Basically another election means unless in the unlikely event PSOE gets a majority on its own or right wins one, we are back to same place.  So its really in both party's interest to find a way to an agreement.  Seems we have the prisoner's dilemma here, whichever party caves will look bad short term, but long term in terms of policies it serves their interest of each to have a deal.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #27 on: September 10, 2019, 11:43:44 AM »
« Edited: September 10, 2019, 11:54:23 AM by mileslunn »

PSOE and UP are at breaking point after four hours of fruitless talks this morning. Socialists say there's no path for agreement because UP rejects the solution they are proposing, while Pablo Echenique (Podemos) complains that PSOE is "immovable" in the"single party government". We are going to elections again.

And what will elections solve unless the right does really win and wins on its own.  Its not as though PSOE is going to get a majority so will be back to same place again.  For Podemos they are probably better to just go along and even though a climb down, still get the best realistic outcome as after the next election likely will lose seats so less clout and if right manages to win much worse for them.

What is interesting to watch is in Spain gap between Podemos and UP is pretty small compared to gap between Five Star Movement and Democratic Party in Italy yet latter formed a coalition pretty quickly despite differences, former cannot after 5 months so go figure.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #28 on: September 13, 2019, 10:21:28 PM »


El País released today an interactive map that shows the median income of Spaniards by census blocks. I think they're the same as the voting precincts, so it'd be interesting to compare it to the April election results. I'm already seeing some correlation between income and the left v. right vote.

https://elpais.com/economia/2019/09/11/actualidad/1568217626_928704.html

Pretty interesting. I think census sections are approximately the same, but looking at my neighbourhood I got the impression that some electoral precincts might be amalgamated. Very useful for socioeconomic patterns

Right now I'm looking for income and election results in the richest and the poorest sections in my hometown, Las Palmas de GC. Census sections are the same.

The richest section that I found lies in the coastal highway (Avenida Marítima) that connects the port to the south, not far from the junction with Bravo Murillo street and a public library. District 2, Section 37 LPGC. Income 26948

PP 32%, Cs 28%, Vox 13%, PSOE 12%, UP 6%, CC 3%, Others 5%

Results in other rich sections of LPGC follow a similar pattern: PP ahead with Cs performing a strong second, PSOE is usually third and strong results for Vox (notice this party is relatively weak in the Canaries, with average results in general election between 6% and 7%)

The poorest section is located in a neighbourhood called El Polvorín, a slum area of degraded residential blocks. District 4 ,Section 59 LPGC. Income 5628

PSOE 47%, UP 14%, PP 14%, Cs 8%, CC 6%, Vox 4%, Others 6%

The poorest section in Gran Canaria island is in a place called Valle de Jinámar, located in the neighbouring municipality of Telde (District 1, Section 61. Income 4756). Pretty similar results: PSOE 43%, UP 21%, PP 10%, Cs 8%, CC 4%, Vox 4%, Others 9%.  

Interesting in many Western countries income is no longer a major factor.  In UK age is main factor while in US and Canada its education.  Right does best amongst older voters regardless of income while in Canada and US areas with lots of university educated types favour left while areas with relatively few favour right regardless of income.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #29 on: September 16, 2019, 02:18:50 PM »

Hasn't PSOE program involved some tax hikes, but only on large banks and only on individuals making over 130,000 Euros?  While there may be issues with this making Spain less attractive for business, its not like there are that many voters who this will impact.  Will be interesting as my understanding is if Cs + Podemos abstain, then investiture happens.  However passing the budget is the trick and will probably have to rely on Podemos + regionalist parties so that maybe a reason Sanchez wants election so doesn't have to rely on regionalist parties to pass budgets.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #30 on: September 16, 2019, 02:42:48 PM »

About when would a new election take place?

November 10th.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #31 on: September 17, 2019, 02:09:56 AM »

Unless right wins a majority, how exactly would a stalemate be resolved after election as almost no chance PSOE wins a majority so would PSOE and podemos agree after or would same thing happen again?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #32 on: September 17, 2019, 01:40:38 PM »

And unless turnout is low and right wins majority, what exactly would be accomplished by then.  Realize it will happen, but if no party bends after, same problem, so any ideas on whom might bend next time around as doubt people want a fifth election.  Seems like PSOE and Podemos are willing to gamble on this as right while not doing too well in polls now could win, especially if Cs and PP run joint candidates.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #33 on: September 17, 2019, 02:16:32 PM »


Could there be another election after this, or do you think if inconclusive again one party will bend to avoid another election.  At this point it seems only a PSOE majority (next to impossible) or right wing majority (possible but not most likely outcome) only way to allow investiture next time around.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #34 on: September 17, 2019, 03:55:55 PM »

How likely is a right wing majority.  Polls don't show it, but with low turnout I've heard that tends to favour the right.  Also if right wins won't there be huge re-incriminations on both parties on the left why they blew this when there were so many opportunities to find a way out.  If a repeat of the status quo, I have a tough time not seeing at least one party caving.  My guess is between Cs, UP, and PSOE, whichever party loses most seats will have greatest interest in caving while any party who gains has none.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #35 on: September 17, 2019, 07:06:31 PM »

What is amazing here is it seems the left really shot themselves in the foot.  Podemos could have voted for investiture earlier which was a modest coalition, but they wanted more influence.  Likewise Sanchez could have taken the deal of 1 year, but it seems the two had bigger egos.  It will be interesting to see what their parties think if right wins.  My guess is both are fairly confident that won't happen, but even though no post election poll suggests right is anywhere close to a majority things can change during a campaign.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #36 on: September 18, 2019, 03:42:07 AM »

So basically unless right wins a majority no government.  I would think if a stalemate someone would cave after or one of the parties would change leaders.  How likely do you think it is the right wins this time?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #37 on: September 18, 2019, 11:42:28 AM »

Would that mean a more centrist government say cancelling things like tax hikes for rich and banks, smaller minimum wage increase?  Would be good for EU as Cs and PSOE most pro-EU and removes the Catalonia question.  If UP does bad enough might they like before the last election have a supply and confidence with PSOE without supporting them?  Don't see a coalition between PSOE and UP unless the unthinkable of big UP gains and PSOE losing ground, but that seems unlikely.  Also Sanchez might be hoping election fatigue will get enough abstentions, but then he has to pass a budget which could be a challenge.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #38 on: September 18, 2019, 01:48:32 PM »

I don't see an agreement between C's and PSOE with current leadership, but if Cs do bad enough might be replaced by a new leader.  On tax cuts for the rich, that will only happen if right wins, but another hung parliament might result in status quo as opposed to hikes on rich and banks that Sanchez and Iglesias favour.  As compared to other European countries, Spain's top rates are comparable to Germany, UK, and Italy, but lower than Portugal and France and would still be even with a 4% hike (note both those two appear similar, but Portugal tacks on a 5% solidarity contribution and social security taxes are not capped like in Spain while in France they have a separate social tax of almost 10%).  As for minimum wage, Spain is well below EU average, mind you average salaries in Mediterranean countries tend to be on the low side with only the Eastern European countries havine even lower ones. 

I wonder if Sanchez hopes that he can just get C's + podemos to abstain since as long as PP + Vox don't gain too much having both abstain would get him over the finish line but would be an unstable government.  Either way I think election fatigue will make a 3rd election unlikely and whatever parties gain ground will stand firm and those who lose ground will cave.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #39 on: September 23, 2019, 01:01:14 PM »

Looking at polls it seems Sanchez decision to go is backfiring.  Not enough for the right to win, but all signs are forming a government will be harder not easier so his strategy seemed more based on ego.  C's are declining heavily, but more of that is going to PP than PSOE while UP is holding up.  Things could change, but a PSOE + regionalist parties seems unlikely so someone will have to bend after unless right wins a majority.  Also PSOE + C's looks to be a bit short meaning it may mean regionalist parties play balance of power, although I think most of them would prefer PSOE to seek support from UP than C's.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #40 on: September 25, 2019, 05:52:26 PM »

Yeah, Mas Pais has been rumoured for a while now as the name of Errejón's party; with "Somos Más" being an extremely distant second

Mostly because "Más España" would have very obvious connotations and thus is unreasonable for a party in the left Tongue

How likely do you think it is the election resolves this?  Looking at the polls it looks like a bigger stalemate so will when party cave in?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #41 on: November 20, 2019, 02:29:51 AM »

What are the odds of another election or do you think ERC will abstain.  Ironically had PSOE-Podemos had the deal before, they wouldn't have to rely on them and if government falls, I think a right wing one is quite possible although who knows.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #42 on: January 09, 2020, 01:15:00 AM »

When will the budget be brought down as I figure the sooner that is done better the chances of it passing are.  If that fails then doesn't that mean more elections?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #43 on: January 13, 2020, 11:50:31 PM »

How likely is it that the budget passes?  With narrow numbers I think there is still a risk it fails which I believe would trigger another election.  If it passes my understanding is Sanchez is safe until next year unless there is a standalone non-confidence.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #44 on: January 17, 2020, 05:43:50 PM »

When is the budget supposed to come down?  Any chance it might trigger another election.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #45 on: January 23, 2020, 01:21:44 PM »

Pedro Sánchez announced a meeting with Catalan premier Quim Torra next month and promised to have a new budget passed by summer

https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/01/21/inenglish/1579598106_545045.html

Quote
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will meet with Catalan premier Quim Torra the first week of February in Barcelona to discuss issues relating to Catalonia. The meeting is part of the agreement the leader of the Socialist Party (PSOE) made with the separatist Catalan Republican Left (ERC) in order to ensure he could be sworn back into office by Congress. The ERC agreed to abstain from Sánchez’s investiture bid on the condition that the PSOE commit to negotiations about the political situation in Catalonia and the future of the region

Also, the government is planning a reform of the criminal code. The crimes of rebellion and sedition could be modified, with the latter being punished by shorter prison sentences. Such reform is in an embryonic phase and will concern a broader range of crimes. In case of being implemented and the crime of sedition is modified, Oriol Junqueras and the other jailed Catalan politicians could be released earlier. It's worth noting that the charge of sedition has no equivalent in the legislation of most European countries. There are voices within the judiciary in favour of reforming both crimes (in the case of rebellion, not to reduce prison sentences but to adapt it to present times). The rightwing opposition claims the reform would be "a covert pardon"

Labour minister Yolanda Diaz negotiated a first increase of the minimum wage with representatives from employers and trade unions-

The government declared the state of climate emergency on Tuesday and committed to submit a draft law on Climate Change within 100 days

When does the budget come down?  Any chance government falls or will it likely pass?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #46 on: January 23, 2020, 04:47:05 PM »

Is ERC likely to abstain on budget or could they vote it down triggering a fall election?  Also would budget apply retroactively or would it only kick in for 2021 if passed.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #47 on: January 31, 2020, 03:36:04 PM »

How likely is this to trigger another national election and looking at numbers unless one side budges seems unlikely to have a viable coalition on either side there.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #48 on: March 02, 2020, 06:26:04 PM »

With expenditure ceiling passing, how likely is it that the budget passes?  My guess is any tax changes take effect in 2021 or do they impact 2020 tax year?  If budget fails it seems deadlock although like Israel election today possible last minute voters swing heavily in one direction to prevent another deadlock.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #49 on: March 03, 2020, 02:40:55 AM »

With expenditure ceiling passing, how likely is it that the budget passes?  My guess is any tax changes take effect in 2021 or do they impact 2020 tax year?  If budget fails it seems deadlock although like Israel election today possible last minute voters swing heavily in one direction to prevent another deadlock.

The expenditure ceiling is a first step, but ERC has the key to pass the budget and has conditioned its abstention to the "success" of negotiations. They should say the "narrative" about negotiations, because it's highly unlikely there are meaningful advances before the Catalan elections. With the current composition of parliament, Spain's political stability is conditioned to the political situation in Catalonia and the latter is quite complex and conditioned by the competition between the two main separatist forces (ERC vs JxCAT, Junqueras vs Puigdemont). I think it's in the ERC interest that the PSOE-UP coalition lasts, but who knows...

Do you mean the "Google Tax" and the likes? As far as I know, Spain and other European countries have been pressed by the Trump administration (there's a commercial war going in, triggered by the US) and the Spanish government would like to coordinate the implementation of taxes to internet giants (please note that some enterprises are bigger than medium-sized states) with France and other countries. In case you are referring to other taxes, please specify.

Thankfully Spain is not Israel. In any case, we haven't the full results of the Israeli elections and it's a bit early to talk about conclusive outcomes (it's clear that Bibi won, but he's on the brink of majority). Even though Pablo Casado is a rightwinger with aggressive rhetoric, he lacks the malice andtalent for confrontation of Donald Trump or Benjamin Netanyahu. I think that only a catastrophic and unprotected event can provoke a heavy swing of public opinion. Such eventualities have happened before (Madrid bombings in 2004, for instance), but I don't have a crystal ball to predict them

I mean Bank tax and high earner's tax hike.  Last time high earners got hit some football players complained so would it impact 2020 salaries or only 2021?  Mind you even with hike top rates I believe will still be below France and Portugal while higher than Italy, Germany, and England and around the same as Netherlands.
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