Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:57:45 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021 (search mode)
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195051 times)
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #25 on: April 28, 2019, 02:02:50 PM »

Gad3 projections for regions (that make up their previous poll) are releasing. Only caught a few on my stream.

Madrid

10 Seats PSOE
8 PP
7 CS
6-7 Podemos
5-6 VOX

Everyone 1 in Cantabria

Castile & leon

PSOE and PP tied at 11-12
C's 5
Vox 2
Podemos 1

Castile La mancha
8 PSOE
5-6 PP
3-4 C's
3 Vox
1 Podemos

Catalonia
13-14 ERC
12-13 PSOE
8 podemos
5 C's
5 JxC
2 PP
1 Vox
1 Other

Ceuta goes Vox


Results in Madrid seem big deal for left as usually it votes right.  Ceuta going Vox is no surprise and I suspect they will win Melilla too.  That is ground zero for illegal immigration so makes a lot of sense.

Can someone explain why two cities in Africa are enthusiastic supporters of the party that is campaigning against Africans? It seems that if Africans creep you out maybe, you know, Africa is not the best place to live.

They are Spaniards living on the edge of North Africa, not "Africans".

Right. But they are living in autonomous Spanish cities in Africa.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #26 on: April 28, 2019, 02:08:33 PM »

Vox with a whopping one seat in Almeria right now.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #27 on: April 28, 2019, 02:17:23 PM »

I noticed only 325 seats are given, are the other 25 having no results is that why?  For left I show 156 so 20 seats shy, while right is 135 which is 41 seats shy so won't both of those numbers go up as those shows a lot in neither group?

Use the el Pais site.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #28 on: April 28, 2019, 02:22:09 PM »

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #29 on: April 28, 2019, 02:25:24 PM »

Almost 15% in and the left has 164 to the right's 135.

Vox is getting embarrassed.

And PP!! The margin between them and C's is narrowing...

PP was getting embarrassed the moment they chose Casado. Vox was at least expected to do better.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #30 on: April 28, 2019, 02:28:25 PM »

Over 20% in and the left has 167 to the right's 139. Cs are actually doing fairly well. PP and Vox are definitely not.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #31 on: April 28, 2019, 02:32:25 PM »

I still think PP-C-VOX vote share will end up beating PSOE-UP by something like 3% but it will not be enough to stop PSOE due to mal-distribution of votes on the Right.    Oh well.

Yeah, seat distribution in Spain makes zero sense to me. It's almost as nonsensical as Australia. Can someone explain very briefly how this works? Bildu should have like 10 seats right now in a strictly proportionap system.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #32 on: April 28, 2019, 02:36:18 PM »

With 26% in the left is at 166 and the right at 139. PP down to 66 and Vox up to 23.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #33 on: April 28, 2019, 02:40:31 PM »

At almost 30 percent the left counted is only four seats from a majority. I suspect that Madrid and Catalonia are starting to come in more quickly now.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #34 on: April 28, 2019, 02:44:53 PM »

Only 15% of Madrid is in. The left has 18 seats to the right's 17 in the region.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #35 on: April 28, 2019, 02:47:07 PM »

PSOE, Podemos, PNV currently on 176. That would mean no need for any of the independentists...

Plus Compromis' seat.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #36 on: April 28, 2019, 02:59:26 PM »

Just over half of the vote in and PSOE+Podemos+Compromis is at 169. PNV would get them to 175.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #37 on: April 28, 2019, 03:14:06 PM »

PSOE+C's has majority, and PSOE has been loosing seats with the most recent dumps, putting PSOE+Podemos+PNV+Compromis+PRC+CCA/PNC at just 176. But if C's becomes the largest right wing party, the slim chance of the PSOE+C's govt becomes 0.

I think you're forgetting Bildu, though. Politically they're not the best look for Sanchez, but they supported his confidence vote and are a left wing party. Right now they're at 5 seats.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #38 on: April 29, 2019, 02:29:30 AM »

Why has Catalonia and Paus Vasco became so left-wing?!
Och

National aspirations tend to have liberationist ideological tendency because it is usually a small population fighting for sovereignty against the powerful majority. Think Ireland under British rule, Palestine, etc.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #39 on: April 29, 2019, 07:06:46 AM »

Why has Catalonia and Paus Vasco became so left-wing?!
Och

National aspirations tend to have liberationist ideological tendency because it is usually a small population fighting for sovereignty against the powerful majority. Think Ireland under British rule, Palestine, etc.

Yeah but Catalan nationalism, at least at the leadership level, used to be dominated by a more bourgeois nationalist aspiration of deep seated paranoia of the central state as a tax collector. Rivera was carpet bagging but his assertion that Pujol, Torra and a few other Catalan nationalist grandees from the Convergencia side have a structurally xenophobic outlook on Andalucians and other Spanish communities is not that far from the truth.

If the nationalists in Catalonia swung towards ERC its because they were afforded an ideal platform with Rufían on national tv debates with his quips and Junqueras, this incorruptible christian guy, being an imprisoned matyr. Meanwhile the successors to Convergencia, Junts per Catalunya, despite their reasonably good results, are kind of a mess.

If the unionists swung left its because they are tired of the issue altogether and PSOE and Podem offered a platform of "convivencia ", peace, etc. while the Right had bellicist rhetoric. I imagine C's knew they were going to be trading votes of Catalan moderate unionists in favour of more right-wing electorates in the mainland.

Yes, and that's why outside of bougie Catalonian circles the independence movement is not viewed sympathetically and why it's easy for mainstream Spanish parties to brush them off or toss their orders in jail or whatever. Nobody actually believes that the plight of the Catalonian could possibly ever be anything close to the plight of the Palestinian or the Tibetan or the Timorese, so people take it as a kind of charming LARP that rich Spanish people do to pass the tim
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #40 on: May 26, 2019, 02:17:25 PM »

Exit polls:

Community of Madrid



City of Madrid


Barcelona tie between Colau (Barcelona en Comú) and Maragall (ERC)

Huge win for the left if this is accurate.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #41 on: June 07, 2019, 06:13:39 AM »

Pedro Sánchez accepts the commission of King Felipe to form a government "as soon as possible". Spanish political parties have been meeting with King Felipe to discuss who they will support in the investiture vote. During these talks, PSOE and Pedro Sánchez remained silent playing the "waiting game"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/06/inenglish/1559813278_485053.html

Quote
Ana Oramas, a lawmaker with the small regional party Canary Coalition (CC) with years of experience in negotiations, put it bluntly: “It is the first time in 11 years that we have arrived at the round of talks with the king without having a single conversation with the investiture candidate or their team.”

Ana Oramas ruled out CC will help Pedro Sánchez, given that her party rejects deals with Podemos and presumably the PSOE will have to make an arrangement with the purples. However there exists the option to replace the 2 CC votes with the 2 deputies of the Navarrese People's Union (UPN, part of NA+). The abstention of the 2 Navarrese regionalists would pave the way for Pedro Sánchez to be elected in a second investiture vote, providing that PSOE secures the support of UP, PNV, Compromís and PRC. These parties add 173 seats (3 short of a majority), while the parties voting against would add 172 seats (discounted the 2 UPN deputies and the 3 JxCAT deputies in preventive detention that haven't been replaced). Reminder: first investiture requires absolute majority (176 seats of 350), while second investiture vote requires simple majority (more votes in favour than against).

 The abstention of the UPN deputies would be in exchange for the PSOE abstention in the Navarrese regional parliament and in the Pamplona town hall, allowing NA+ to govern the region and its capital. This deal would entail the sacrifice of the Navarrese branch of the PSOE led by María Chivite, who is seeking a deal with GBai (PNV and progressive independents), Podemos and IU that requires the abstention of EH Bildu (Basque separatists) to succeed. PSOE national leadership dislikes the idea of a regional government depending on EH Bildu, because Pedro Sánchez is seeking an investiture without the support of separatist parties and needs the UPN votes. Apparently this exchange between PSOE and UPN won't create major problems with the PNV, despite it entails the GBai ally will go to opposition in Navarre (PNV might be considering run in its own or with another brand in Navarre).On the other hand, PP leader Pablo Casado stated he doesn't oppose a deal between UPN and PSOE if NA+ governs. Cs leader Albert Rivera is against such deals and he considers PSOE should simply allow the "constitutionalists" to govern, instead seeking the support of "populists" and "separatists". NA+ is a coalition operating in Navarre including UPN, PP and Cs.

The PSOE has been playing a waiting game in order to strengthen its position in negotiations, as well to move into centre stage

Quote
he Socialists appear to be playing a waiting game while other parties – especially the center-right Ciudadanos (Citizens) and the far-right Vox – hold numerous meetings, negotiate with one another, and deal with infighting.

The PSOE is open to all options, even to a deal with Ciudadanos, which may ultimately prove too difficult. And it has managed to keep its options open without hardly entering into negotiations. “The PSOE is not calling anybody because it is taking its time to see if there are other allies around,” said Alberto Garzón, the leader of United Left, which joined forces with the anti-austerity party Podemos at the general election to run as Unidas Podemos.

Albert Rivera has made clear there is no chance for a deal with the PSOE, as he is engaged to fight with Pablo Casado for the leadership of the opposition (Rivera claims leading the opposition is a matter of "attitude" and not necessarily a matter of seats in parliament). In what regards UP, the disastrous performance on May 26 diminishes the chance to enter in a coalition government. PSOE spokepersons have suggested that Pablo Iglesias should reconsider his pretensions. The weaker position of UP is reflected in the way socialists are no longer treating the coalition led by Iglesias as a "preferential partner", although the 42 UP votes in Congress are still necessary for Pedro Sánchez. After his meeting with King Felipe, Pablo Iglesias complained because Pedro Sánchez did not contact him in the past two weeks. The image of this "humbled" Iglesias contrasts sharply with his arrogant press conference after the meeting with the king after the 2015 elections. Then the attitude of Iglesias was dismissive, stating that it'd be a "smile of destiny" that Pedro Sánchez became PM.  The possibility of a PSOE-UP coalition is apparently fading away, but in any case negotiations start now.

Quote
Sánchez has liked to play a leading role in negotiations ever since he took power in June 2018 after leading a successful no-confidence motion against former Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of the PP. But this time around he is following the strategy of his predecessor, who always waited to see how the pieces fell before making a move.

It's pretty obvious that the Socialists don't have any option BUT a coalition with Podemos. So whatever Sanchez thinks about Iglesias' humility he won't be returned as PM without forming a government with him.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #42 on: June 29, 2019, 12:55:10 AM »

Pedro Sánchez heads investiture debate in July without having secured the UP support. Negotiations between PSOE and its "preferential partner" stalled, as both parties have different points of view concerning the elephant in the room, that is to say, the entry of Pablo Iglesias and his fellows in the government

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/27/inenglish/1561623443_293514.html


Quote
 The political situation in Spain remains deadlocked with the Socialist Party (PSOE) and left-wing Unidas Podemos group still unable to reach an agreement that would allow Pedro Sánchez to be reelected as prime minister.

  Sánchez and Unidas Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias had agreed to negotiate a “government of cooperation” but are refusing to budge from their respective positions over what this means. The PSOE leader is willing to offer Iglesias mid-level government positions but the anti-austerity chief wants Cabinet positions that will reflect his party’s weight relative to the PSOE in parliament (42 seats versus 123) – an idea Sánchez has rejected.

In an effort to break the deadlock, the acting prime minister announced that he will set a date for the investiture vote with the speaker of Congress, Meritxell Batet, on Tuesday. While the government says no decision has yet been made, the vote is likely to happen on July 16.

But the move has not had the desired effect. On Wednesday, Iglesias warned that the first investiture vote, where an absolute majority of 176 votes is needed, will fail. “An agreement is closer than it seems, although we will have to wait two-and-a-half months,” he said (...)


Pedro Sanchez is very good at politics. I'm surprised he is having this much trouble sweetening the deal for Podemos. I susoect that PSOE really wouldn't mind new elections given their rise in the polls. Iglesias, who is not so good at politics, perhaps doesn't understand this.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #43 on: June 29, 2019, 09:20:59 AM »

To be honest there is a huge almost unsavable difference: Podemos wants to get cabinet ministers in the government while PSOE wants a minority government.

So someone has to cave.

I wonder, if we go to a 2nd election, will Sánchez be blamed for it? I think polls are overestimating Sánchez a bit.

Then again back in 2016 we saw the largest party (PP) go up, but the party blamed for the election repetition (Podemos) did go down.

I think that the polling bubble that Sanchez sits on is liable to pop at any moment, and that he cannot possibly be dumb enough to believe that it is sure to last especially with PP also rising in the polls. A new election is likely to yield similar results with more seats for unlikely partner PP and less for likely partners UP and Cs. He is probably counting on Podemos' dive in the polls to freak them out into submission to a vote-and-supply deal.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #44 on: July 02, 2019, 10:33:07 AM »

Even if Sánchez gets a bigger number in a hypothetical snap election (say, 30-35% of the vote), won't that be for naught if the PSOE doesn't get a majority of the seats? It'd be like what's going on right now.

The idea is that the bargaining chips would be greater.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #45 on: July 23, 2019, 08:20:06 AM »

Yeah it seems unlikely that a government will happen, and Sánchez will be the most blamed for the 2nd election if it does happen.

Certainly the polls with PSOE in the low-mid 30s are not to be believed. Most likely the right also falls short and we end up in a bigger mess

Yeah, I just am watching in amazement at how bad Sanchez is at politics. He may very well be booting one of the best situations for the left in Europe in a long while, all for no obvious reason other than a dramatically inflated sense of confidence. New elections will bury UP and strengthen PP, which strikes me as quite a lot worse for Sanchez than Podemos today. Amazing.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #46 on: July 23, 2019, 11:53:56 AM »

I fully understand Sanchez honestly. He has no majority anyway. What is the point if you cannot govern if you are trapped by terrorists (Bildu) and independentist (ERC)

The irony of course is that Sanchez is drawing the line at separatism despite the fact that Spanish politics is now such that no Socialist government can ever exist without the at least tacit support of separatists. Coalitional politics is hard, but Sanchez is making this harder than it needs to be.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #47 on: July 25, 2019, 03:15:50 AM »

It sounds like there has not been much progress in negotiations between UP and Sanchez and that the latter is therefore likely to lose today's investiture vote. It feels like Sanchez is taking a massive risk thwt current polling does not show to he paying off. So it also seems really foolish.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #48 on: July 27, 2019, 02:39:06 AM »

Would not another election just produce a similar deadlock as today ?

Yeah, and it could even be even more deadlocked, where either Cs or PP would have to join the Socialists. And that clearly isn't happening. PSOE is polling better today than before, but mostly at the expense of Podemos. So the coalitional math is mostly unchanged. All of that is why people rightly would blame Sanchez and why I suspect letting hubris or ideology or stupidity or whatever get in the way of a September agreement would be sonething the entire left regrets should new elections happen.
Logged
Walmart_shopper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,515
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: 3.13

« Reply #49 on: July 27, 2019, 06:49:43 AM »

Why does not Sánchez  say something like: "If Podemos does not get on board with our conditions to save the country from instability PSOE will support a C government from the outside"

I don't think he would remain PSOE leader for long saying things like that.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.058 seconds with 12 queries.