Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[BigSerg]

Are you trying to compare the situation created by the Evola virus with the ongoing crisis? Good luck with that. Also, Pedro Sánchez said "the government is responsible". He did not accused the Rajoy administration of killing Spanish citizens. This is a very serious accusation that can't be done lightly. If Casado and Abascal were decent persons moved by the national interest. not by ideological hatred or the desire to topple the government, they should apologize and resign their seats immediately

In short,

Ebola was Rajoy's fault.
(0 deaths)

The coronavirus is the fault of... let's not politice such a serious issue!
(40000 deaths)

[BigSerg]

Are you trying to compare the situation created by the Evola virus with the ongoing crisis? Good luck with that. Also, Pedro Sánchez said "the government is responsible". He did not accused the Rajoy administration of killing Spanish citizens. This is a very serious accusation that can't be done lightly. If Casado and Abascal were honest persons moved by the national interest. not by ideological hatred or the desire to topple the government, they should apologize and resign their seats immediately

Please, don't spam the thread posting loads of tweets. I have nothing against freedom of speech, but I prefer if you limit your re-tweets to the strictly necessary

They are necessary since they highlight your hypocrisy.

[BigSerg]

Coronavirus


https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1296106055609602048?s=19

[BigSerg]

"Spain has re-emerged as the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in Europe and its government appears largely in denial over it.

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is on vacation with his family and hasn’t come out to address the public after Spain, over the course of this week, recorded the highest number of daily infections per million people in Europe. Each day brings more bad news"

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-08-19/spain-s-coronavirus-infections-rise-by-the-most-in-four-months?__twitter_impression=true

[BigSerg]

The Popular Party has on Thursday denounced a meeting on the beach between the Minister of Justice, Juan Carlos Campo, and the former Andalusian President Manuel Chaves, sentenced to nine years for the case of the ERE and pending appeal in the Supreme.

https://twitter.com/rafafeldespato/status/1296491853664202754?s=19

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.vozpopuli.com/espana/ministro-justicia-chaves-ere_0_1384362403.html

But King Juan Carlos....

[BigSerg]

The Popular Party has on Thursday denounced a meeting on the beach between the Minister of Justice, Juan Carlos Campo, and the former Andalusian President Manuel Chaves, sentenced to nine years for the case of the ERE and pending appeal in the Supreme.

https://twitter.com/rafafeldespato/status/1296491853664202754?s=19

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.vozpopuli.com/espana/ministro-justicia-chaves-ere_0_1384362403.html

But King Juan Carlos....

Yeah, King Juan Carlos has been hiding (and stealing) hundreds of millions of € but of course a "beach chat" that may even be the result of a pure coincidence is much, much worse. Also, they weren't wearing masks!!1!1!1!1!!!

The king is not under investigation, he has not fled.

On the other hand, there's a convicted felon in the photo.

[BigSerg]

The Attorney's Office of the Court of Auditors sees evidence of crime in Podemos electoral accounts

The company Neurona, precisely, was mentioned by the lawyer of Podemos José Manuel Calvente, dismissed last December by the party of Pablo Iglesias, in his statement before the judge investigating his allegation of alleged irregularities in purple formation.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.rtve.es/noticias/20200821/fiscalia-tribunal-cuentas-indicios-delito/2040663.shtml

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1300314135935229954?s=19

https://twitter.com/PedroOtamendi/status/1300838725258227717?s=19

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/elmundoes/status/1306124664314499072?s=19

[BigSerg]

Could you make an actual contribution please, instead of just obsessively posting tweets about podemos?

Lol " actual contribution". Velasco only says bad PP or vox things, I've never seen him criticize left

Did he say anything about the ERE scandal?

criticizing the political right all the time, it's no "actual contribution"

I don't know if you are intelligent enough for that, but you could contribute a bit more than random tweets in Spanish even if your only purpose is saying s**t about Podemos.

Even if Velasco were actually a PSOE or Podemos hack (hint: he isn't), you can see he's able to elaborate, express his opinion, share information about the latest events and polling... On the other hand, you're barely able to write two sentences and act as if this Forum were Twitter or the comment section of a Facebook post.

So please if you're just going to troll, go on "whataboutism" and accuse people who actually contribute of having an ideology, I think it'd be actually better to abstain from posting the same s**t over and over again. You're convincing no one and it makes  you look stupid. So do like me and just read and lurk till you're prepared to make an actual contribution. Again, this is not Twitter.

Thanks!

No.

La rioja
23.228 (cases per millon)
5,40 (fatality rate)

Castilla la mancha
17.11 (cases per millon)
8,80 (fatality rate)

Extremadura
7.668 (cases per millon)
6,6 (fatality rate)

Madrid
28.008 (cases per millon)
4,81 (fatality rate)

The epidemiological situation in La Rioja worsens, with 90% of the ICU occupied
https://www.lavanguardia.com/local/la-rioja/20200916/483514031142/la-rioja-coronavirus-uci-evolucion-restricciones.html

It would seem that it is somewhat ideological to go against the Community of Madrid (PP) and forget Aragon, La Rioja, Castilla la Mancha and Navarra (the 4 ruled on the left)

In fact, Madrid, being much higher in population than all of them, becomes the community with the lowest mortality rate by coronavirus and per 100,000 inhabitants in the second wave.

It is very false to say that Madrid has the highest growth rate of coronavirus, the community that has the greatest growth in cases, is Extremadura (Psoe).


But Ayuso!!!!!!!!!!!

[BigSerg]

Thus live the confinement by neighborhoods in Palma de Mallorca: "We do not know if we can cross a street or not"

While in Madrid the selective confinement of neighborhoods is being shuffled to slow the expansion of the coronavirus, this experiment has already been put into practice this week in a large city such as Palma de Mallorca, the eighth largest in Spain with about half a million inhabitants.

Autonomy with restrictions
These are the restrictions that other communities have approved so far to stop the coronavirus
9.5% of its neighbors have been left within one of six confined areas, more than 40,000 people who cannot leave their neighborhoods except for good cause and who must live again with restrictions.


https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4384554/0/confinamiento-selectivo-palma-mallorca-no-sabemos-podemos-cruzar-calle/

[BigSerg]

I don't even understand why the EU should consider prosecuting Spain lol.

Who is that Polish politician?

Well the alternative brought up by the opposition is that instead the judiciary should be depoliticized and the Concil of the Judiciary elected by the judges themselves. The problem is that the judges that would do the election are mostly conservatives appointed under Rajoy and who were up for "retention" now but PP has been blocking their renewal.

Indeed not too unlike McConnell blocking the SC justices on the other side of the pond (thankfully the Spanish judiciary is way less politicized than the American one, but it is still not 100% independent from politics)

The thing is that this reform, if passed, would on paper mean that Spain's judiciary would be appointed in a similar-ish manner to those of Poland or Hungary, so that is why they ask if the EU will prosecute Spain.´

Here is the Polish politician in question. He is apparently the "Undersecretary of State of the Polish department of Foreign Affairs", so a very low level job but his tweet got some coverage on right wing Spanish media:

https://twitter.com/paweljabIonski/status/1316291073279434752

The situation is not at all comparable to the U.S. Supreme Court. "Progressive judges" mostly support the appointments of conservatives (PP).

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181112/452888446687/pp-y-psoe-pactan-un-cgpj-de-mayoria-progresista-presidido-por-manuel-marchena.html

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/division-bloque-progresista-permitira-judicial-funciones-aprobar-nombramientos-supremo_1_6255845.html

[BigSerg]

The situation is not at all comparable to the U.S. Supreme Court. "Progressive judges" mostly support the appointments of conservatives (PP).

2018: "PSOE has guaranteed a progressive majority within the judiciary, as confirmed by sources of the Government and PP. The Socialists and their partners in Podemos will have 11 members. The popular ones, only nine"

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/division-bloque-progresista-permitira-judicial-funciones-aprobar-nombramientos-supremo_1_6255845.html
https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181112/452888446687/pp-y-psoe-pactan-un-cgpj-de-mayoria-progresista-presidido-por-manuel-marchena.html

Actually that deal was eventually broken? In fact precisely because PP broke the deals and negotiations (both in 2018 and this summer) the government was forced to do this. And it was PP who broke it

https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20181120/pp-da-roto-pacto-para-renovar-cgpj/1840963.shtml

Well, now explain to me how Spain's situation is comparable to that of the United States. The same "progressive judges" are supporting conservative appointments.

"Two progressive members will vote blank to consider that there should be no appointments in this interim situation, while the rest are willing to agree with the conservative majority, who do not have enough votes to place their candidates"

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/division-bloque-progresista-permitira-judicial-funciones-aprobar-nombramientos-supremo_1_6255845.html

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1317065497758793728?s=19

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1319358195081437184?s=20
https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2020/10/22/espana-suma-21000-casos-nuevos-de-coronavirus-y-155-muertos/

Navarra
La Rioja
Aragón   

All these autonomous communities are controlled by the PSOE and currently have a much worse situation than Madrid (especially Navarra).

[BigSerg]

Why do they post stuff that comes across like it was made by edgy 15 year-olds.

Well they need to appeal to the younger demographic somehow.

Something that goes rather underrated is that Vox is actually quite weak among old people. They seem to peak among the 30-44 demographic.

However Vox also has an extremely strong vote among young men; and in fact Vox won a narrow plurality among said demographic.

I never know how accurate this is and I tend to post it more often than I should tbh, but here is the graph of vote split by age and gender:

https://s3.eestatic.com/2019/11/16/actualidad/Actualidad_444967936_138163750_1024x576.jpg

Of course, with Vox the big story is actually the huge gender split and not the age split, but a significant age split still exists.

As someone who comes from another Southern European country, gotta say that this graphic is decidedly unsurprising. By the way, is there data on party preference by religious attendance?

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/19/sepa_usted/1555672471_473310.html

[BigSerg]

As someone who comes from another Southern European country, gotta say that this graphic is decidedly unsurprising. By the way, is there data on party preference by religious attendance?

Not really, religion is an extremely underrepresented issue on Spanish politics. Still to add to what Sergi said:

With the CIS polls we can get an idea since they have a ton of questions. They are PSOE leaning so the "top line" number will be wrong; but I think the general pattern should still hold.

Anyways, here is the crosstabs chart for the religion question, with people also being asked who they voted for on November 2019; according to the latest CIS poll:

Not sure if the image will display properly



Options from top to bottom:
>Practising Catholic
>Non-Practising Catholic
>Another Religion
>Agnostic
>Indifferent/Non-believer
>Atheist
>Refuse to Answer

Excluding the parties with super small sample sizes, my conclusions would be:

• PSOE seems fairly representative of the Spanish population at large
• PP extremely overperforming among religious Catholics
• Vox slightly overperforms among Non-practising Catholics and slightly underperforms among non-religious people
• UP extremely overperforms among agnostics and atheists and underperforms among all Catholics
• Cs overperforms by a lot among Non-practising Catholics, and slightly underperforms among atheists (but interestingly not the other 2 non-religious categories)

So for the question you are going to ask, devout Catholics are a titanium PP demographic

Then again that's definitely at least partially a function of old people being extremely heavily for the 2 traditional parties (PSOE and PP).

"Catholic voters do not decide by faith, Catholic voters say they decide at the ballot box on the economic proposals of the parties (74.8%), social policies (59%), the unity of Spain (56.8%) or family policies (55.7%)".

[BigSerg]

CEO poll: Parliament of Catalonia

ERC 35/36 seats (23.4%)
JxCAT 31/32 seats (19.4%)
PSC 24/25 seats (18.0%)
Cs 16/17 seats (12.0%)
ECP 8/9 srats (7.6%)
PP 7/8 seats (6.0%)
CUP 6/7 seats (4.9%)
VOX 4/6 seats (4.5%)

ERC and Junts on the brink of majority eithout the CUP. Pro-independence parties wouldn't cross the 50% threshold (other recent polls say they will)

Spain is on rhe brink of another state of alarm. Eight regions, including Catalonia and Basque Country, called the central government to implement that measure. State of alarm is a tool that allows the regions to restrict mobility. It doesn't imply neccessarily lockdowns. Cases are rising everywhere except in the Canaries

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-23/spain-heads-toward-another-state-of-alarm.html

wow vox+pp = 10.5%

[BigSerg]

Lol, it's obviously a smear campaign.

https://twitter.com/GirautaOficial/status/1320358681641422848?s=20
(Spanish public radio and television service)

[BigSerg]

What are odds budget fails.  I believe sticking points are rent as Podemos want immediate action on that as well as smaller regionalist party but PSOE reluctant.  On tax hikes on high incomes, my understanding is both parties favour it but debate over timing.  PSOE wants to wait until economy recovers and this year limit it to only those over 300,000 Euros (which is largely symbolic as I believe something like 0.1% of Spaniards make over that so not a lot of revenue) while Podemos initially wanted it on every one over 130,000 Euros, but now willing to settle at 200,000 Euros.  Also haven't said if hike will by the full 4 points as promised or a smaller amount.  C's I believe okay with supporting budget but are opposed to tax hikes, but would reluctantly accept on high incomes if cut for middle class.  So what are thoughts on this.  I doubt it triggers an election, but could be delayed I suppose.

Mmm, no.

"The president of Cs, Inés Arrimadas, has stated that her party defends policies "very different" from those of Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) and EH Bildu and therefore does not believe that the next General Budgets of the State (PGE) can be approved with the votes of these three formations at once"

https://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-arrimadas-no-imagina-presupuestos-aprobados-votos-cs-erc-bildu-sanchez-tendra-elegir-20201026114249.html

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/EU_Social/status/1323608078961565696?s=20

[BigSerg]

The Government easily won a vote to start the process of passing the 2021 budget, gaining the backing of both C’s and the left-wing nationalists (ERC and Bildu), though this simultaneous support is almost certainly not going to repeat itself in the final vote (which will probably take place in January) and PSOE-UP will have to choose between them.

Bildu’s support was especially controversial, since part of the coalition of parties that composes it is a successor to Herri Batasuna, the former political wing of the Basque separatist terrorist organization ETA. Vox, unsurprisingly, lambasted the Government and accused it of cooperating with terrorists, while Pablo Casado attacked the PSOE affirming that the agreement was proof that Pablo Iglesias is really in charge.

There was also some pushback from inside the PSOE itself, with regional president Guillermo Fernández-Vara from Extremadura saying the inclusion of Bildu was “nauseating” and Castilla La Mancha regional president Emiliano García Page going as far as echoing the PP’s claims that Podemos is setting the Government’s agenda.

Personally, I believe it is good that Bildu is finally being included in the democratic system, ignoring hundreds of thousands of Basques who are trying to make their voices heard is not fair to them nor beneficial to the country. In fact, we should be very happy that they are doing it through ballots instead of bullets. Violence could once again become appealing to them if they are constantly blocked from participating in the political process peacefully.

I understand the large segment of Spaniards who despise Bildu and everything it stands for, but if we want true reconciliation, we have to learn to live with each other. To keep loathing them is going to backfire if their objective is to mantain Spanish unity, it will only make Basques feel more excluded and increase separatist sentiment.

https://twitter.com/Proserpinasb/status/1327372378289082369?s=20

[BigSerg]

It's a question of maths: ERC+Bildu have 18 seats and Cs only has 10.  Additionally the former are not compatible with the latter and UP has a strong interest in marginalizing Cs.

The diminished Arrimadas gang is struggling to survive as a centrist party, able to make deals with PP and PSOE. The PSOE and Pedro Sánchez would like to include Cs in the budget negotiation, in order to strengthen the parliamentary majority. Cs could be interesting as a future ally of the socialists, providing the party can survive and they have the mumbers (again). Bildu, ERC and UP don't want that Cs svsurvive for different reasons. Finally, the former leader Albert Rivera made a statement yesterday or the day before, which is a thinly veiled attack to his heir and former deputy leader Inés Arrimadas. Rivera, who is the main culprit for the Cs debacle six months after its heyday, says that there's no dignity in making deals with the Public Enemy Number One, who is Pedro Sánchez. It's been a hard week for Arrimadas

We all know that Bildu is the heir of the political wing of ETA. For sure the Otegi folks need to take more steps away from that past, but EH Bildu it's a legal party because they made the decision to engage in politics discarding the "armed struggle".  A vote for EH Bildu weighs exactly the same as a vote for any other party, including the ideological heirs of the Franco regime. ETA killed 800+ during its 50 years of existence, in the last decades of the Franco dictatorship and the democratic period afterwards. The Franco regime killed tens of hundreds of thousands. Consider that the same people crying it's an outrage to make deals with separatists and heirs of ETA usually remains silent about the deals with Francoists.

Just when I thought you couldn't go any lower...
https://twitter.com/carmencalvo_/status/1132973408935927809?s=20
https://twitter.com/rimbaudarth/status/1326979813689712647?s=20

[BigSerg]

Yeah, I think the Bildu active support was not negotiated by PSOE (maybe by UP, but even that's far from certain)

In fact, their support almost feels to me as a blank cheque lol.

It's not like the Navarra "big brain" maths to get Chivite elected regional premier, where GBai negotiated with Bildu to abstain while PSOE negotiated with GBai or sothing like that.

It's not exactly a blank cheque, but it's not that PSOE and UP sold themselves to Otegi. Pablo Iglesias celebrated the Otegi statements, because the Bildu support helps UP to keep Cs out of the deal. I don't know if Bildu and UP negotiated anything (probably not), but Iglesias has good contacts with separatist and nationalist parties and he talks with everybody, with the likely exception of Santiago Abascal

PSOE and GBai form a coalition government in Navarra. They need to negotiate that Bildu votes in favour or abstain, because NA+ is not going to help to pass the budget. That's not strictly necessary in the Congress of Deputies. But again we have a case of double standards. The Spanish Right demonizes the "heirs of ETA" and the " communists*" (saying that Podemos us "populist" and "Bolivarian" is old-fashioned, apparently), while bleaches the Francoist agents of Trump (Casado once said the Vox dudes are "constitutionalists"). I concur that it's positive to normalize Bildu, which has a leftwing platform compatible with other psrties on social and economic issues, regar yo criticize Otegi's ambiguity on other issues related to ETA or the victims (not forgetting on the other side that GAL victims need recognition, too). Anyway there's no big difference between Arnakdi Otegi and Gerry Adams (they are good friends)

* I heard the new PP spokeswoman Cuca Gamarra arguing that limiting rent prices is a communist measure, so I guess Berlin has gone back behind the Iron Curtain

lol, what a ridiculous argument is this? lying also has a limit

https://twitter.com/WillyTolerdoo/status/1328345768604946438?s=20

[BigSerg]

Yeah, I think the Bildu active support was not negotiated by PSOE (maybe by UP, but even that's far from certain)

In fact, their support almost feels to me as a blank cheque lol.

It's not like the Navarra "big brain" maths to get Chivite elected regional premier, where GBai negotiated with Bildu to abstain while PSOE negotiated with GBai or sothing like that.

It's not exactly a blank cheque, but it's not that PSOE and UP sold themselves to Otegi. Pablo Iglesias celebrated the Otegi statements, because the Bildu support helps UP to keep Cs out of the deal. I don't know if Bildu and UP negotiated anything (probably not), but Iglesias has good contacts with separatist and nationalist parties and he talks with everybody, with the likely exception of Santiago Abascal

PSOE and GBai form a coalition government in Navarra. They need to negotiate that Bildu votes in favour or abstain, because NA+ is not going to help to pass the budget. That's not strictly necessary in the Congress of Deputies. But again we have a case of double standards. The Spanish Right demonizes the "heirs of ETA" and the " communists*" (saying that Podemos us "populist" and "Bolivarian" is old-fashioned, apparently), while bleaches the Francoist agents of Trump (Casado once said the Vox dudes are "constitutionalists"). I concur that it's positive to normalize Bildu, which has a leftwing platform compatible with other psrties on social and economic issues, regar yo criticize Otegi's ambiguity on other issues related to ETA or the victims (not forgetting on the other side that GAL victims need recognition, too). Anyway there's no big difference between Arnakdi Otegi and Gerry Adams (they are good friends)

* I heard the new PP spokeswoman Cuca Gamarra arguing that limiting rent prices is a communist measure, so I guess Berlin has gone back behind the Iron Curtain

lol, what a ridiculous argument is this? lying also has a limit

https://twitter.com/WillyTolerdoo/status/1328345768604946438?s=20

Arnaldo Otegi: Otegi has been imprisoned up to five times. The last, in 2009, for an armed gang membership offence in the Bateragune case.

Arkaitz Rodríguez: He was convicted along with Arnaldo Otegi for belonging to the terrorist gang ETA in the Bateragune case. Rodriguez was arrested in 2009 and sentenced to six years in prison.

Bergoi Madernaz del Pozo: served time for integration into the terrorist gang ETA. Madernaz was arrested in France with other young people by French police authorities in February 2011 after escaped from the Basque Country. He spent four years in prison.

https://www.elespanol.com/espana/20200714/politica-miembros-bildu-pagaron-prision-colaboracion-eta/504979503_3.html#img_2

Vox Francoists...