Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021 (user search)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195341 times)
Oryxslayer
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« Reply #25 on: April 28, 2019, 01:50:48 PM »

The big catch from the Gad3 seat projection has to be Galicia. Left block has more seats there then Right.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #26 on: April 28, 2019, 02:09:11 PM »

4.2% in:

28.4% PSOE
19.0% PP
10.8% C's
11.5% UP
  7.9% Vox

What part of the country are these from?  It seems PSOE and PP getting about what polls suggested, but other three especially Vox way under.  Off course depending on what part of the country these are from may not be representative at all.

 From El pais. Grey is Separatist. Looks like Aragon is counting the fastest.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #27 on: April 28, 2019, 02:13:09 PM »

As of this moment, PSOE+C's has 175. Expect that to change.

Basque County is at 34% Counted, so yeah, votes are biased towards that party of the county right now.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #28 on: April 28, 2019, 02:27:45 PM »

Just reminding you Guys that madrid sits at 6.26%. There is a lot still up in the air, so lets not bank everything on Basque County and Aragon.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #29 on: April 28, 2019, 02:44:46 PM »

Counting Bias

Andalusia: 26.8%
Aragon 47.6%
Asturias 45.2%
Balares 23.7%
Cantabria 35%
la Mancha 34.7%
Cast&leon 53.5%
Catalan 25.5%
Valencia 23.7%
Extremadura 35%
galicia 40.5%
Madrid 14.9%
basque: 68.8%
Murcia 39.2%

So Andalusia still has votes for Vox and Psoe, Madrid for the right, and valancia/Catalan for Psoe/podemos/C's.

Its going to be PSOE+C's or PSOE+Podemos(+Minor) Govt. 
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #30 on: April 28, 2019, 02:45:13 PM »

PSOE, Podemos, PNV currently on 176. That would mean no need for any of the independentists...

remember PNV is getting overpolled right now.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #31 on: April 28, 2019, 03:09:18 PM »

PSOE+C's has majority, and PSOE has been loosing seats with the most recent dumps, putting PSOE+Podemos+PNV+Compromis+PRC+CCA/PNC at just 176. But if C's becomes the largest right wing party, the slim chance of the PSOE+C's govt becomes 0.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #32 on: April 28, 2019, 03:16:44 PM »

Most recent dump, the PSOE+Podemos+Loyalist Minors now drops to 175. If PSOE want to build a pure left govt with the present numbers, they need the support of secessionists, either Catalan or Basque.

For this post, I count the Arab currently leading in Melilia as an outlier, and the seat will return to its traditional right when actual votes return.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #33 on: April 28, 2019, 03:27:19 PM »

Lol the stream I'm watching has PSOE and PP rallies both shown on screen...PP's is so quiet.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #34 on: April 28, 2019, 03:50:48 PM »

With 79% in Ceuta in, it seems the right-wing vote is so split between PP and Vox that PSOE may actually gain the seat from PP. Perfect illustration of this election.

I was just about to mention this, Its basically an FPTP seat there, so congrats to the PSOE I guess. Melila on the other hand will probably return a PPer once the spanish neighborhoods are counted.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #35 on: April 28, 2019, 04:08:17 PM »

Abascal talking about Reconquista is his victory speech...

Doesn't matter now, he can scream in his corner for all Sanchez cares. I'm more interested in Rivera right now, whether he opens the door to govt or give Sanchez the finger forcing him to grab the Basques.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #36 on: April 28, 2019, 04:16:18 PM »

Podemos is now speaking to their supporters.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #37 on: April 28, 2019, 04:20:44 PM »

Melilla flips to PP.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #38 on: April 28, 2019, 04:52:04 PM »


There are two potential Govts:

PSOE+Podemos+PNV+CCA/PNC+Compromis+PRC gets 175. They need EH Bidhu or the Catalonians to govern, and this would probably entail dropping some of the weaker minors since Eh Bidhu has 4 and Compromis/PRC have only 1 seat.

PSOE+C's simple, but is it practical?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #39 on: April 28, 2019, 04:58:33 PM »

Sanchez speaking.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #40 on: April 29, 2019, 01:11:25 PM »

Block Swing. Left is PSOE, Podemos, Compromis, PRC,  Right is PP, C's, Vox NA+.  Regionalists without any loyalties are treated as such.

You can really see where Vox surged, and how the Andalusian elections might not have been the best predictor for 2019. You can also see how the regionalists gained at the expense of the left, likely Podemos, in 2016.

 
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #41 on: April 29, 2019, 05:46:50 PM »

Block Swing. Left is PSOE, Podemos, Compromis, PRC,  Right is PP, C's, Vox NA+.  Regionalists without any loyalties are treated as such.

You can really see where Vox surged, and how the Andalusian elections might not have been the best predictor for 2019. You can also see how the regionalists gained at the expense of the left, likely Podemos, in 2016.

 

The map is very interesting, although possibly misleading in what regards Basque Country and Catalonia. As you say peripheral natiinalists made gains at the expense of the Left. This swing must be ECP loses to ERC and FR in Catalonia and UP loses to EH Bildu in Basque Country (EH Bildu and GBai Navarre). Podemos caught tactical vote from peripheral nationalists in 2015 and 2016. However the Spanish Right was decimated in both regions and the colour blue looks strange in their provinces. If you treat peripheral nationalists as a separate bloc (it's a correct approach, imo), maybe you should reflect that in the map. It's only my opinion, of course.

Regarding Balearic Uslands, I think there is no swing to the right:

In 2016 PP+Cs got 49.7% and Podemos-IU-MES+PSOE got 45 5%

In 2019 PP+Cs+Vox got 45.5% and PSOE+UP got 44.2%. MES regionalists left UP and allied with ERC getting 4.9%.

Yep the baleres is a mistake. Thanks for catching it. I treat secessionists/regionalists as a seperate block with color on my other maps, it just gets harder to calculate swing with three factions involved.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #42 on: April 30, 2019, 11:33:37 PM »



Two most shocking shifts in my opinion are the relative  lack of non-participant-> Vox transfers (with most of their voters being formally from PP) and the comparatively large Podemos -> others (regionalists) transfer. Both shifts though were already partially visible on the swing map, which with the Basque/Catalans shifting away from the left block and Andalusia being the only state with consistent right wing swings.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #43 on: July 15, 2019, 02:38:17 PM »

The way I see it, granting Iglesias far more power than he deserves would be far too risky for Sánchez, so he's willing to bet for another election where this:


Spanish politics is very personality driven and rivalrous (I have once said its worse then GoT's infighting)  so giving Iglesias such a high perch would be a bad idea from the start. That is probably PSOE's sticking point, they would be happy with a coalition but Iglesias would have to sit out or get a background office, a bad deal for Podemos. Of course this all would be made easier if the C's deal was still on the table, the threat of that would have allowed Podemos to no doubt back a minority govt. But once again rivalries threw that possibility out the window. 
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #44 on: July 23, 2019, 12:19:11 PM »

The first day of the investiture debate was depressing. Cs leader Albert Rivera is was particularly disastrous: overacting, deranged and resorting to conspiracy theories in the worst populist fashion. According to Rivera, Sánchez has a plan to destroy Spain. Currently the Cs leader is to the right of Casado and not so far from Vox, something like a modern José Antonio Primo de Rivera. Hearing his speech today, it's not difficult to understand why an increasing number of people is running away from the party. The relationship between Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias is strained, which is unsurprising. The Podemos leader showed restraint in his first reply to Sanchez, trying not to burn the bridges, but it became evident the negotiation is ran aground. Sánchez is not very enthusiastic with the idea of a coalition, apparently. Someone believes elections in November is not a bad idea.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/07/22/inenglish/1563807689_858287.html

Quote
 Spain’s acting prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, on Monday urged Congress to entrust him with office so that Spain “does not end up deadlocked.” (...)

In a two-hour address, Sánchez discussed the challenges that he will be tackling as the new leader of Spain: “Unemployment and precarious jobs, the digital revolution, the climate emergency, the discrimination of women and the future of Europe.” He also defended constitutional reforms to prevent future situations of post-election deadlock (...)
Towards the end of his speech, Sánchez appealed directly to Unidas Podemos: “Dealmaking is not easy, but we are united by the promise of the left.”

Podemos, which was aiming for a coalition government with the Socialists, says that so far Sánchez has only offered them “symbolic responsibilities” within his future government. The latter holds that a joint government with Podemos would be impossible due to irreconcilable differences over critical matters such as the situation in Catalonia (...)
 

So I got a depressing theory about Rivera, a theory that stems from his precarious position politically right now. C's right now, touches almost every part of the spectrum, but is a master of no particular position besides centralism, and as such is vulnerable. Now, this problem may not have emerged if PP didn't flub as much as it did, because these results gave C's an initiative to go and usurp leadership of the Spanish right. If all of VOX's seats were PP seats, I have a feeling Rivera may have tried to come to the table, despite the reservations on both sides, when the egos failed moderate themselves between PSOE and Podems. At the same time C's is trying to coup PP, they face opponents from all sides. PSOE is trying to pull the moderates and left away, VOX is trying to pull the nationalist faction away, and PP is trying to pull back their rightists.

So Rivera is doing something spooky. He sees the VOX base, and how voters on the far right easily deserted him and PP after Andalusia. But at the same time, C's noticed how VOX voters are not like normal post-industrial populists, they are similar to C's voters. They also noticed how VOX's brand has fallen out of favor. What Rivera wants to do methinks is kill off VOX before it even has a chance to prove itself, and reorient C's into a populist party. POSE+Podemos is exactly what Rivera wants since he can now attack the full government as sellouts to the regionalists, not just Podemos. It also explains the C's high commands desire to work with VOX locally when PSOE+C's is an option. They are happy to throw the small left leaning wing of their party under the bus for a similar reason, but potentially not a good one in the long term.

I have no idea how this play will work in the long run, only I can suspect that it will lead to a C's that hardly resembles the one we now today.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #45 on: July 30, 2019, 07:55:43 AM »

So... there's a new CIS poll and, well...



Apparently the PSOE is stronger than ever.

It's CIS, so this is the appropriate response: -_-. But I fully expect there to be Podemos -> PSOE swings right now.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #46 on: September 16, 2019, 07:53:18 AM »



This looks like big news.

The sad thing is that Sanchez's ego might still prevail, he seems focused on punishing Podemos rather than forming a government right now.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #47 on: September 23, 2019, 08:04:18 PM »

I guess the main risk Sanchez is taking is really that before this upcoming election PSOE-C alliance would have the numbers but after the election even that combination might not have the numbers for a de facto majority.

PSOE-C's would have been the natural progression of things, if everyone didn't have egos the size of Spain. Now PSOE thinks they can monopolize the center, and C's thinks they can be the Salvini of Spain - though we will only learn about latter's potential once he hits the campaign trail and attempts to reverse the present decline
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #48 on: September 23, 2019, 09:07:40 PM »


Ever since the last Election,  Casado has taken the party rightwards. He cracked down on C's locals allying with PSOE and other leftists, he purged a remaining 'macron-type' liberals from the party, and has embraced the anti-Catalan part of their platform. In part, the time was ripe after the results came in, C's could try and out-right PP and gain more  voters, and absorb VOX who failed to take off. Of course, things didn't work out that way, at least so far. Now, the title 'Salvini of Spain' does not include Salvini's key proposals like Migrant cutting. Instead it revolves around a worldview an electoral strategy: pairing right wing cultural outrage (that gives you more votes beyond ones normal reach) with traditional right wing bases - Italy the North, Spain the 'market-liberal' style Conservative suburbs. 
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #49 on: October 01, 2019, 08:43:53 PM »


It's hard to follow the vote transfers here for Mas Pais. I assume  it is likely something like:

-C's+VOX -> PP
-PP+C's -> PSOE
-PSOE+Podemos -> Mas .

Which I guss if allowed to continue benefits PSOE and PP the  most...?
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