Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Mike88]

Turnout figures at 14:00h:

Nov 2019 - 37.9% (-3.6)
Apr 2019 - 41.5%
2016 - 36.9%
2015 - 37.0%
2011 - 37.9%

Could be a lot worse, honestly. Probably a sign that nothing too groundbreaking will happen. The right would want turnout in the low 30s to pull off a shocker, I would imagine.

We'll have to wait until 18:00h to know the real trend. In 2016, by that time only 51% had cast a ballot and that election ended up being quite good for the right.

[Mike88]

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?

Yep. 8PM Madrid Time, 7PM London/Lisbon time.

[Mike88]

Turnout figures at 14:00h:

Nov 2019 - 37.9% (-3.6)
Apr 2019 - 41.5%
2016 - 36.9%
2015 - 37.0%
2011 - 37.9%

Could be a lot worse, honestly. Probably a sign that nothing too groundbreaking will happen. The right would want turnout in the low 30s to pull off a shocker, I would imagine.

We'll have to wait until 18:00h to know the real trend. In 2016, by that time only 51% had cast a ballot and that election ended up being quite good for the right.

Do you have the 6pm numbers for the last four elections!

Apr 2019 - 60.7%
2016 - 51.2%
2015 - 58.4%
2011 - 57.7%

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1193580267912540162

Only Álava (Basque Country) and Jaén (Andaluzia), have increased turnout rates compared with April.

The rest has lower turnout that ranges from 0% and -7%.

In terms of communities, 8 have turnout decreases above 5%:

Balears
Canarias
Melilla City
Extremadura
Galicia
Castilla y León
Principado de Asturias
Ceuta City

3 communities have turnout decreases below 3%:

Basque Country
Andaluzia
Valencia

[Mike88]

Turnout at 6pm at 56.79%. A five point drop from April. Not bad, frankly, given the voter apathy that could be expected.

Too bad.  Was hoping for a lower turnout to lead to a Right wing surge.  It seems we will get stalemate again. 

Yeah, like Walmart_shopper said, some right-wing areas aren't showing up, but some left-wing areas have not very good showings also. Neither side seems very motivated.

[Mike88]

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?

Yep. 8PM Madrid Time, 7PM London/Lisbon time.

Worth noting polls close at 9PM Madrid time in the Canary Islands (8PM local time), so early counts will only have 335/350 MPs

El País and ABC are reporting that results will start to come at 9 pm. Who do I believe D:

I believe exit polls, or predictions to be more exact, are allowed at 8PM but there's a blackout until the Canary Islands polls close. But I'm not sure.

[Mike88]

While this doesn't quite portend a big win for the left, it appears that the idea that a fourth election would deter left wing voters from turning out has simply proven false.  There is a generalized pattern of right wing strongholds showing up at considerably lower rates versus April compared with left wing provinces.  It is also worth noting that some of the places where Vox was strongest are especially weak so far today.  Madrid's turnout is not terrible, though, but there it is hardest to figure out what's happening because there is so much fluidity between Vox, PP and, and Cs.  PP could be cannibalizing the large right wing vote in Madrid, or Vox could be surging.  It's hard to know.

The turnout rate could mean a lot and, at the same time, absolutely nothing. The areas with very low turnout seem to be areas where weather today is very bad with strong winds and heavy rain. All points to a continuation of the deadlock, unfortunately.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1193604448741924871

The deadlock continues...

In Catalonia, ERC and Junts are losing to CUP it seems.

Take these "polls" with extreme caution as they aren't election day polls, but rather trackings from the last few days.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1193604448741924871

Surreal. The fifth election in April is going to be interesting.

Yeah, this is becoming ridiculous. It was expected, but ridiculous still. Maybe the only way to settle this is to have a "jamón" (ham) eating contest, and the person who eats the most jamón wins.

[Mike88]

Repost: largest bloc by province

I saw the long, gray blob on the left edge of the map and was confused about which bloc was strongest.

Sorry, Portugal.  I like really do like you more.

I don't like those maps of Spain not showing the Portuguese land. The Iberian peninsula looks amputated in them. I think the Left was the largest bloc in the last Portuguese elections  

In the 2015 elections, the right-wing bloc won every district in the North, bar Porto, and Leiria in the Center. In the 2019 elections, the leftwing bloc won every district bar Braganza, that matches exactly in the areas where PP+C's+VOX have the highest share in Castilla y Leon.

2019 results by bloc, from Wikipedia:


The almost wipe out of the rightwing bloc in the 2019 election is basically because of the colapse of CDS, as PSD did hold steady in many areas of the North/Center while CDS basically disappeared.

[Mike88]

Vox could win Murcia and Ceuta city, according to the TVE poll.

[Mike88]

First results in: 16.74% counted

29.15% PSOE
20.39% PP
13.14% Vox
12.24% UP
  5.31% C's
  0.70% Más Pais

In April, with a similar share of the vote counted, these were the results:

With 17.01% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.69%
PP       16.99%
C        13.05%
UP       11.98%
VOX      8.97%

[Mike88]

I think when I posted these numbers back in April I failed to take into account the other smaller UP lists.

En Comú Podem and Galicia en Común are still shown separately in the MIR website

For UP, I added UP-IU+En Comú+PODEMOS+EU.

[Mike88]

53.16% counted

PSOE   29.03%
PP        20.52%
VOX     14.68%
UP        12.68%
C           6.33%
Mas       2.09% (I found all 4 lists)

PSOE falling and everyone else gaining as the count continues.

PSOE will end up at 28% or slightly bellow that, exactly the same as the second largest party in Portugal. PP seems or course to win something between 21-22%. Vox could reach 16%. C's is also increasing but I don't think it will reach 9%. UP could reach 13%, but only just.

[Mike88]

Right now, with the current seats, a possible pact to vote in Sanchéz as President is PSOE+UP+Más Pais+PNV+BNG+CCa+PRC+Terruel Existe: 177 seats.

Don't know if it's even feasible.

[Mike88]

Right now, with the current seats, a possible pact to vote in Sanchéz as President is PSOE+UP+Más Pais+PNV+BNG+CCa+PRC+Terruel Existe: 177 seats.

Don't know if it's even feasible.

Even assuming PSOE and UP can get their differences sorted out, not really, CCa will not support a government alongside UP. Worth noting of CC's 3 seats, 2 will belong to the centre-right CC and 1 to the centre-left NCa. So NCa might break the alliance and vote for Sánchez, but who knows.

Either way it is not the most unlikely government out there if the numbers hold, but I do expect them to come short by a couple seats in the end.

They are already short of it, 174 seats. But like Velasco said, and you said, it's very difficult to form a pact with all these parties. I was only looking at the results and trying to find a way out, but alas.

[Mike88]

PP seems open in talking to PSOE, according to Casado speech.

[Mike88]

Now PP back in the lead...47 votes at 92,33% of the count...E-V-E-R-Y V-O-T-E C-O-U-N-T-S.

Back CpM in the lead, by 254 votes...

[Mike88]

PSOE supporters seem not willing to let Sanchéz speak...

[Mike88]

I'm watching TVE, and almost every pundit in trouncing Sanchéz speech.

[Mike88]

A little bit of fun, how the Portuguese/Spanish border voted:

Results border Portugal-Spain:

Caminha/A Guarda:

38.8% PS/PP 31.9%
31.8% PSD/PSOE 25.0%
  9.5% BE/UP 16.3%
  3.9% CDU/BNG 10.4%

Valença/Tui:

39.9% PSD/PP 31.1%
35.6% PS/PSOE 29.6%
  6.8% BE/UP 11.8%
  3.5% CDS/Vox 9.3%

Chaves/Verín

38.3% PSD/PP 37.1%
37.1% PS/PSOE 32.5%
  6.2% BE/Vox 9.3%
  4.2% CDS/BNG 8.3%

Vilar Formoso/Fuentes de Oñoro

42.0% PS/PP 41.0%
33.0% PSD/Vox 26.0%
  6.2% CDS/PSOE 24.4%
  5.8% BE/C's 6.4%

Marvão/Valencia de Alcántara

47.6% PS/PSOE 35.4%
27.9% PSD/PP 28.3%
  6.2% BE/Vox 20.2%
  3.7% CDU/UP 7.8%

Elvas/Badajoz

45.7% PS/PP 28.3%
18.7% PSD/PSOE 28.0%
  8.7% BE/Vox 22.2%
  6.4% CDS/UP 9.8%

Elvas/Olivenza

45.7% PS/PSOE 45.7%
18.7% PSD/PP 20.0%
  8.7% BE/Vox 13.9%
  6.4% CDS/UP 12.1%

Mourão/Villanueva del Fresno

43.5% PS/PSOE 40.6%
26.0% PSD/PP 26.1%
10.7% CDU/Vox 19.4%
  5.0% BE/C's 6.4%

Alcoutim/Sanlúcar de Guadiana

48.0% PS/PP 36.6%
28.0% PSD/PSOE 30.9%
  5.7% BE/Vox 23.4%
  5.4% CDU/C's 4.6%

Vila Real de Santo António/Ayamonte

40.1% PS/PSOE 34.1%
16.7% PSD/PP 21.1%
13.2% BE/Vox 20.9%
12.6% CDU/UP 12.2%

[Mike88]

PP wins Melilla: 29.6% vs 29.0% for CpM.

[Mike88]

Well this is what I get for speaking too early. We just got big news regarding government negotiations.

Apparently during negotiations PSOE has leaked to ERC the contents of the reports Spanish government prosecutors will make regarding the jail situation of former ERC leader Oriol Junqueras.

ERC apparently has agreed with those prosecutor arguments and has agreed with them, and will abstain in the government confidence vote.

It is expected that the government confidence votes will take place during the first week of January 2020.

https://cadenaser.com/ser/2019/12/29/politica/1577638677_168479.html

In any case, you can see this as Sánchez meddling into the job of prosecutors and further neutering separation of powers (not exactly strong in Spain). Plus depending on how conspiratorial you are, you could see this as some sort of big betrayal to the unity of Spain.

Either way, it seems a government will be formed soon

Now, the question is if this government has any ground to last. Anyway, political stability will probably not be a characteristic of the next Sanchéz government.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1212850791477850112

It could be an outlier, but still.

[Mike88]

Like almost always, the Spanish political scene has basically no headlines in Portugal, until today when Portuguese media found this:

https://twitter.com/Publico/status/1213398644688330753

Spain: Spanish Government Agreement provides for Portuguese televisions and radios to be broadcast in Galicia

The agreement between the PSOE and the Galician Nationalist Block (BNG) for the Galician nationalist deputy, Néstor Rego, to vote in favor of Pedro Sánchez's investiture foresees that it will facilitate the broadcasting of Portuguese radio and television channels in Galicia. This was a measure that was already foreseen in the well-known “Paz-Andrade Law”, dated 2014, but was not implemented.

Plus, this:

https://twitter.com/observadorpt/status/1213459589502517248

The gaffe of the day. Does Vox want to attach Portugal to the Spanish territory?

The Vox wants the Spaniards to protest on 12 January in front of town councils to claim a government that respects the "Constitution and sovereignty," but the map of the country is raising many doubts.

Vox seems not only to be unhappy with the idea of Catalonia's independence in Spain, but also to aspire the aggregation of Portugal to the territory of our brothers. Or it may have just been a design problem in an image used to promote a rally scheduled for January 12th.

Also, about the investiture vote, will Bildu abstain? That seems odd.