Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[jaichind]

Would not another election just produce a similar deadlock as today ?

[jaichind]

Why does not Sánchez  say something like: "If Podemos does not get on board with our conditions to save the country from instability PSOE will support a C government from the outside"

[jaichind]

Why does not Sánchez  say something like: "If Podemos does not get on board with our conditions to save the country from instability PSOE will support a C government from the outside"

I don't think he would remain PSOE leader for long saying things like that.

Oh yes, it's a fantastic idea and socialists should go for it. Let's give all the power to Albert Rivera, the leader of the third party in parliament whose strategy is keeping tension high with his bigoted attacks against "Sánchez and his gang". Definitely it'd be the wisest decision to make. "For the good of the country"

You obviously right on the political dynamics but it seems to me that Sanchez has to threaten an outcome that is even worse for  Podemos  than status quo.  Not sure what it should be.

[jaichind]

According to El Independiente, Errejón wants to compete in the 17 most populous provinces

Madrid (37 seats); Barcelona (32); Valencia (15); Alicante and Seville (12); Málaga (11); Murcia (10); Cádiz (9); Baleares, A Coruña, Las Palmas and Vizcaya ( 8 ); y Asturias, Granada, Pontevedra, Santa Cruz de Tenerife snd Zaragoza

https://www.elindependiente.com/politica/2019/09/23/errejon-concurrir-10-n-provincias-siete-escanos/

Possible allies: Compromis (Valencia and Alicante; might run with UP), Mes (Balearic Islands) and Equo. The small green party is actually splitted in two factions: the current leadership might join 'Más Pais', while the faction led by Juantxo López  de Uralde will remain loyal to UP.

Question: will Pedro Sánchez sleep and have sweet dreams after November 10?

But would this not also shift some seats to the Right if this splits the Podemos  even if POSE gains so,e too ? So why is Sánchez that much better off under this scenario ?

[jaichind]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/23/spanish-police-arrest-catalan-separatists-on-suspicion-of-terrorism

"Spanish police arrest Catalan separatists on suspicion of terrorism"

[jaichind]

I guess the main risk Sanchez is taking is really that before this upcoming election PSOE-C alliance would have the numbers but after the election even that combination might not have the numbers for a de facto majority.

[jaichind]

Assuming a status quo election where some seats get shuffled within the Right and Left blocs without changing the big puture, will UP and/or Más País back Pedro Sánchez  this time around?

[jaichind]

Also if anyone is interested, here is the current polling average:

PSOE: 27.3% (122)
PP: 22.1% (100)
UP: 12.4% (32)
Vox: 10.9% (33)
Cs: 9.8% (19)
MP: 4.4% (5)
Others: 39

Vox ties Podemos in seats despite losing the popular vote because of their more rural vote distribution (Vox gets a lot of former Cs seats in inland Spain); and also a more efficient one (Vox wastes less votes in Catalonia/Basque Country and the like than Podemos wastes in inland rural Spain)

By coalition:

PSOE-UP-MP: 44.1% (159)
PP-Cs-Vox: 42.8% (152)

Should we not add NA+ to the Center-Right bloc ?

[jaichind]

Amazing how much the VOX have surged.  I guess the Catalonia and Franco exhumation issue really played into their strength 

[jaichind]

When does polls close? 8PM Madrid time ?

[jaichind]

Turnout at 6pm at 56.79%. A five point drop from April. Not bad, frankly, given the voter apathy that could be expected.

Too bad.  Was hoping for a lower turnout to lead to a Right wing surge.  It seems we will get stalemate again. 

[jaichind]

Looks like Right wing bloc narrowly beats out Left wing bloc

[jaichind]

Exit poll smaller parties

Catalan pro-independence parties Esquerra Republicana seen having 13-14, Junts 6-7, CUP 3-4 seats
Basque nationalists PNV 6-7

[jaichind]

Looks like Más País did some damage to the PSOE and UP in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

EL  Pais

PSOE 119
PP 94
Vox 42
Podemeos 36
C's 19
ERC 15
MP 3
Other 22

158 to 155 pure left v right

You have to add in 2 seats to the Right for NA+

[jaichind]

Forgot about them. So it's essentially tied. Wonderful.

As pointed out by others it really does not matter as unless the exit polls are way off we are looking at more stalemate.

[jaichind]

First results in: 16.74% counted

29.15% PSOE
20.39% PP
13.14% Vox
12.24% UP
  5.31% C's
  0.70% Más Pais

In April, with a similar share of the vote counted, these were the results:

With 17.01% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.69%
PP       16.99%
C        13.05%
UP       11.98%
VOX      8.97%

I think when I posted these numbers back in April I failed to take into account the other smaller UP lists.

[jaichind]

22.73% counted

PSOE   29.21%
PP        20.38%
VOX     13.59%
UP        12.36%
C           5.58%
Mas       0.75%

[jaichind]

22.73% counted

PSOE   29.21%
PP        20.38%
VOX     13.59%
UP        12.36%
C           5.58%
Mas       0.75%

Mas País has like 4 separate list that you would need to add but is honestly not worth it.

Sigh

[jaichind]

30.68% counted

PSOE   29.23%
PP        20.39%
VOX     13.98%
UP        12.49%
C           5.83%
Mas       1.67% (I found 3 of the Mas lists)

[jaichind]

39.70% counted

PSOE   29.21%
PP        20.43%
VOX     14.34%
UP        12.60%
C           6.07%
Mas       1.93% (I found all 4 lists)

[jaichind]

53.16% counted

PSOE   29.03%
PP        20.52%
VOX     14.68%
UP        12.68%
C           6.33%
Mas       2.09% (I found all 4 lists)

PSOE falling and everyone else gaining as the count continues.

[jaichind]

Ok.  So it seems exit polls are roughly correct.  So more stalemate.  Sure all these parties do not have infinite budgets to keep on fighting elections.

[jaichind]

63.66% counted

PSOE   28.80%
PP        20.63%
VOX     14.91%
UP        12.71%
C           6.50%
Mas       2.19%

[jaichind]

73.81% counted

PSOE   28.59%
PP        20.70%
VOX     15.05%
UP        12.74%
C           6.62%
Mas       2.26%