Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195235 times)
Former President tack50
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« Reply #2200 on: February 15, 2021, 10:19:11 AM »

CUP abstention is the likeliest scenario yeah; woth Comuns abstaining being a very distant second
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2201 on: February 15, 2021, 10:29:38 AM »

I mean if I was in in the ERC I would use the threat of alternative govts, which do exist unlike when Junts tops the polls, to squeeze Junts for everything possible. Basically if you force Junts to decide between abandoning the 50% and forcing the ERC explore anything with the PSC, or accepting a different Nationalist govt with their prominence greatly reduced, one assumes that they will go Nationalist every time - allowing the ERC to play hardball.
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Skye
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« Reply #2202 on: February 15, 2021, 01:21:37 PM »

Precinct map from eldiario.es:

https://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-calle-calle-consulta-gano-manzana_1_7220231.html
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palandio
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« Reply #2203 on: February 15, 2021, 03:24:04 PM »

Very interesting!

What are the reasons that in many precincts with strong PSC results (and strong 2017 C's results) the ERC is relatively strong (often in second place) whereas Junts is basically non-existent? Who are these voters? Are they like most of their neighbors when it comes to language, class, family history, etc.?
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #2204 on: February 15, 2021, 03:40:58 PM »

Very interesting!

What are the reasons that in many precincts with strong PSC results (and strong 2017 C's results) the ERC is relatively strong (often in second place) whereas Junts is basically non-existent? Who are these voters? Are they like most of their neighbors when it comes to language, class, family history, etc.?

The explanation may well be more complicated than this, but wouldn't you expect a place that leans left unionist-speaking to also lean left separatist-speaking?
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palandio
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« Reply #2205 on: February 15, 2021, 04:13:18 PM »

Very interesting!

What are the reasons that in many precincts with strong PSC results (and strong 2017 C's results) the ERC is relatively strong (often in second place) whereas Junts is basically non-existent? Who are these voters? Are they like most of their neighbors when it comes to language, class, family history, etc.?

The explanation may well be more complicated than this, but wouldn't you expect a place that leans left unionist-speaking to also lean left separatist-speaking?
Good point. In the end if you did a principal component analysis on the precinct results you would probably get two main components (left-right and unionist-separatist) and then it would be completely logical for a precinct in the left-unionist quadrant to have ERC in second place (and sometimes ERC and Vox fighting for second place).

Class is probably correlated with the components, too, with the gradient generally going from poor left-unionist to wealthy (or rural) right-separatist, but with a non-linear bent at the end that puts right-unionist areas in Western Barcelona on top.

But I was also trying to immagine the voters behind the numbers and that's why I originally asked the question.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2206 on: February 15, 2021, 08:10:14 PM »

Very interesting!

What are the reasons that in many precincts with strong PSC results (and strong 2017 C's results) the ERC is relatively strong (often in second place) whereas Junts is basically non-existent? Who are these voters? Are they like most of their neighbors when it comes to language, class, family history, etc.?

The explanation may well be more complicated than this, but wouldn't you expect a place that leans left unionist-speaking to also lean left separatist-speaking?

Actually this is correct. As of now, ERC is probably the party in Catalonia that has the broadest coalition and is the most evenly spread by far.

Instead of having very strong strongholds and being weak elsewhere, it manages to get decent minorities everywhere.
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Mike88
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« Reply #2207 on: February 15, 2021, 08:51:36 PM »

When will the CERA votes be counted? Have they had a historical trend or not?
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Velasco
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« Reply #2208 on: February 16, 2021, 02:25:28 AM »

I invite you to explore these interesting vlickable interactive graphs explaining the demographics of the February 14 vote, by bloc (pro-independence vs rest of parties) and party

https://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/demografia-14f-vota-grupo-social-elecciones-catalanas_1_7218718.html#click=https://t.co/PVSniqliOP
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2209 on: February 16, 2021, 07:12:59 PM »




Remember the Police housing precinct we were discussing two months ago? Well, PSC topped the poll, but only because VOX and PP split the conservative vote.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #2210 on: February 16, 2021, 07:29:26 PM »

https://i.ibb.co/qs2m7j8/cops.png


Remember the Police housing precinct we were discussing two months ago? Well, PSC topped the poll, but only because VOX and PP split the conservative vote.

That has to be the most hilarious result of this election. Although of course the Right bloc still beat the Left bloc easily.
Interesting how hard C's was destroyed here, much harder than the average.
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Astatine
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« Reply #2211 on: February 16, 2021, 09:52:32 PM »

https://i.ibb.co/qs2m7j8/cops.png


Remember the Police housing precinct we were discussing two months ago? Well, PSC topped the poll, but only because VOX and PP split the conservative vote.

That has to be the most hilarious result of this election. Although of course the Right bloc still beat the Left bloc easily.
Interesting how hard C's was destroyed here, much harder than the average.
The turnout drop is also... something.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #2212 on: February 17, 2021, 10:39:37 AM »

https://i.ibb.co/qs2m7j8/cops.png


Remember the Police housing precinct we were discussing two months ago? Well, PSC topped the poll, but only because VOX and PP split the conservative vote.

That has to be the most hilarious result of this election. Although of course the Right bloc still beat the Left bloc easily.
Interesting how hard C's was destroyed here, much harder than the average.
The turnout drop is also... something.

I imagine given its functions are mostly bureaucratic...a lot of the CNP based there work from home these days
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Ex-Assemblyman Steelers
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« Reply #2213 on: February 18, 2021, 02:44:55 PM »

Elsa presidenta!
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2214 on: February 18, 2021, 11:36:28 PM »

Wow, that is a MASSIVE drop-off in turnout. That's an absolutely disheartening result regardless of who won. And even besides that, with independentists still in the majority, it's hard being very optimistic about a negotiated solution to this mess. Here's hoping, though.
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njwes
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« Reply #2215 on: February 19, 2021, 03:39:54 PM »

When does government formation begin?
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Velasco
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« Reply #2216 on: February 20, 2021, 11:19:02 AM »

When does government formation begin?

ERC and Junts had a first meeting already,  but  negotiations might take some time
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Ex-Assemblyman Steelers
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« Reply #2217 on: February 20, 2021, 12:54:29 PM »

When does government formation begin?

ERC and Junts had a first meeting already,  but  negotiations might take some time

Who else?
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Velasco
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« Reply #2218 on: February 21, 2021, 01:26:42 AM »
« Edited: February 21, 2021, 02:29:31 AM by Velasco »

When does government formation begin?

ERC and Junts had a first meeting already,  but  negotiations might take some time

Who else?

Once ERC and Junts reach an agreement, they will need to negotiate with the CUP. It's not going to be easy, because the relationship between the two main pro-independence parties is rather strained and they have differences on strategy. Junts and CUP have a rupturist rhetoric,  while ERC currently supports a gradualist approach to independence and rejects unilateralism. Anyway I yhink the most likely outcome is that they will reach some compromise,  because the alternative is calling a new election

There exists other alternative on paper that is politically impossible at this juncture: the PSC-ERC-ECP tripartite. ERC signed a document alongside the other pro-independence parties compromising they are not going to deal with the PSC. On the other hand, ECP won't support a coalition government incorporating Junts. So the only politically viable coalition is the one I mentioned earlier.

It is believed the Spanish government is going to issue a pardon of the Catalan  jailed politicians, maybe before summer.  This gesture would have political repercussions and quite possibly it's a neccessary step towards some kind of reconciliation, but the rift between 'national communities' is too deep in today's Catalonia
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #2219 on: February 21, 2021, 07:45:52 PM »

When does government formation begin?

ERC and Junts had a first meeting already,  but  negotiations might take some time

Who else?

Once ERC and Junts reach an agreement, they will need to negotiate with the CUP. It's not going to be easy, because the relationship between the two main pro-independence parties is rather strained and they have differences on strategy. Junts and CUP have a rupturist rhetoric,  while ERC currently supports a gradualist approach to independence and rejects unilateralism. Anyway I yhink the most likely outcome is that they will reach some compromise,  because the alternative is calling a new election

There exists other alternative on paper that is politically impossible at this juncture: the PSC-ERC-ECP tripartite. ERC signed a document alongside the other pro-independence parties compromising they are not going to deal with the PSC. On the other hand, ECP won't support a coalition government incorporating Junts. So the only politically viable coalition is the one I mentioned earlier.

It is believed the Spanish government is going to issue a pardon of the Catalan  jailed politicians, maybe before summer.  This gesture would have political repercussions and quite possibly it's a neccessary step towards some kind of reconciliation, but the rift between 'national communities' is too deep in today's Catalonia
that is a very stupid idea
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