Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Oryxslayer]

#TrendsAreGlobal



/s

[Skye]

C's at 5.6% with 92% in.


Their poll numbers were at double digits as late as two weeks ago.

[Velasco]

The PSC is back, but it's a different party.

Back in 1999 and 2003 elections, when the PSC was the leading party in popular vote under Pasqual Maragall (CiU won more seats due to malapportionment), 30% of its base had a predominantly Catalan identity ("more Catalan than Spaniard")

The 2021 PSC under Salvador Illa has lost 2/3 of the catalanist base: only 10% identify as "more Catalan than Spaniard".

The catalanist middle-class has turned to sovereigntism since 2010

[Alcibiades]

The PSC is back, but it's a different party.

Back in 1999 and 2003 elections, when the PSC was the leading party in popular vote under Pasqual Maragall (CiU won more seats due to malapportionment), 30% of its base had a predominantly Catalan identity ("more Catalan than Spaniard")

The 2021 PSC under Salvador Illa has lost 2/3 of the catalanist base: only 10% identify as "more Catalan than Spaniard".

The catalanist middle-class has turned to sovereigntism since 2010

To what extent have the PSC taken most of the C’s voters from the last election? The map would suggest that this is basically what has happened (although the ERC has also been able to gain some coastal areas which voted C’s last time).

[Oryxslayer]

The PSC is back, but it's a different party.

Back in 1999 and 2003 elections, when the PSC was the leading party in popular vote under Pasqual Maragall (CiU won more seats due to malapportionment), 30% of its base had a predominantly Catalan identity ("more Catalan than Spaniard")

The 2021 PSC under Salvador Illa has lost 2/3 of the catalanist base: only 10% identify as "more Catalan than Spaniard".

The catalanist middle-class has turned to sovereigntism since 2010

To what extent have the PSC taken most of the C’s voters from the last election? The map would suggest that this is basically what has happened.

This is basically what happened among certain voters, but do remember that a good number of these voters were either PSOE/PSC voters previous to 2017 (the Red suburbs around Barcelona for example) or hopped on the train in the 2019 federal elections.

[Alcibiades]

The PSC is back, but it's a different party.

Back in 1999 and 2003 elections, when the PSC was the leading party in popular vote under Pasqual Maragall (CiU won more seats due to malapportionment), 30% of its base had a predominantly Catalan identity ("more Catalan than Spaniard")

The 2021 PSC under Salvador Illa has lost 2/3 of the catalanist base: only 10% identify as "more Catalan than Spaniard".

The catalanist middle-class has turned to sovereigntism since 2010

To what extent have the PSC taken most of the C’s voters from the last election? The map would suggest that this is basically what has happened.

This is basically what happened among certain voters, but do remember that a good number of these voters were either PSOE/PSC voters previously (the Red suburbs around Barcelona for example) or hopped on the train in the 2019 federal elections.

So it was essentially a combination of being able to consolidate the less right-wing anti-independence vote and riding the national party’s increased popularity since 2017, as well as passions around the independence issue having somewhat cooled since the very heated circumstances in which the last election was held?

[Velasco]

The PSC is back, but it's a different party.

Back in 1999 and 2003 elections, when the PSC was the leading party in popular vote under Pasqual Maragall (CiU won more seats due to malapportionment), 30% of its base had a predominantly Catalan identity ("more Catalan than Spaniard")

The 2021 PSC under Salvador Illa has lost 2/3 of the catalanist base: only 10% identify as "more Catalan than Spaniard".

The catalanist middle-class has turned to sovereigntism since 2010

To what extent have the PSC taken most of the C’s voters from the last election? The map would suggest that this is basically what has happened (although the ERC has also been able to gain some coastal areas which voted C’s last time).

Many Cs voters in 2015 and 2017 were borrowed. In the last elections Cs was the leading party in Metropolitan Barcelona, which has been always a socialist stronghold known as the 'red belt'. Many of these centre-left voters identifying "more Spaniard than Catalan" or "equally Spaniard and Catalan" are back. On the other hand, the most right-wing and Spanish nationalist voters have gone from Cs to Vox

[Velasco]

PP delegation in the Parliament of Catalonia

1. Alejandro Fernández  (Mr Emoji)
2. Lorena Roldán (the Cs candidate-elect until her replacement by Carlos Carrizosa)
3. Eva Parera (ex-UDC, Barcelona councilor elected in the Manuel Valls list)

[Mike88]

I was believing that the PSC lead would grow with the late returns but it seems that the opposite happened. Now, what kind of government will come out of this is anyone's guess.

[Velasco]

98.5 counted

PSC 23.0 (+9.1) 33 (+16)
ERC 21.3 (=) 33 (+1)
JxCAT 20.1 (-1.6) 32 (-2)
VOX 7.7 (+7.7) 11 (+11)
CUP 6.7 (+2.2) 9 (+5)
ECP 6.9 (-0.6) 8 (=)
Cs 5.6 ( -19.8 ) 6 (-30)
PP 3.8 (-0.4) 3 (-1)
PDeCAT 2.7 (+2.7, split from JxCAT)

Turnout 53.6

[Mike88]

In Lleida, PDeCAT could still "steal" a seat from PSC. It unlikely, but possible.

[palandio]

The PSC is back, but it's a different party.

Back in 1999 and 2003 elections, when the PSC was the leading party in popular vote under Pasqual Maragall (CiU won more seats due to malapportionment), 30% of its base had a predominantly Catalan identity ("more Catalan than Spaniard")

The 2021 PSC under Salvador Illa has lost 2/3 of the catalanist base: only 10% identify as "more Catalan than Spaniard".

The catalanist middle-class has turned to sovereigntism since 2010

To what extent have the PSC taken most of the C’s voters from the last election? The map would suggest that this is basically what has happened.

This is basically what happened among certain voters, but do remember that a good number of these voters were either PSOE/PSC voters previously (the Red suburbs around Barcelona for example) or hopped on the train in the 2019 federal elections.

So it was essentially a combination of being able to consolidate the less right-wing anti-independence vote and riding the national party’s increased popularity since 2017, as well as passions around the independence issue having somewhat cooled since the very heated circumstances in which the last election was held?

Turnout fell from 79.1% to ca. 53-54%, i.e. almost one third of 2017 voters stayed at home in 2021, which means that C's -> abstention, JxCat -> abstention and ERC -> abstention were probably numerically the strongest voter movements. When all votes are counted, PSC will have gained a mere ca. 40k votes on top of its 607k votes in 2017. Significantly CUP was able to more than double its seat share despite getting less overall votes than in 2017.

[Velasco]

I was believing that the PSC lead would grow with the late returns but it seems that the opposite happened. Now, what kind of government will come out of this is anyone's guess.

I think the most likely option is  ERC+JxCAT, with Pere Aragonès  as President de la Generalitat and a Junts member as Speaker of the Parliament

[Oryxslayer]

I was believing that the PSC lead would grow with the late returns but it seems that the opposite happened. Now, what kind of government will come out of this is anyone's guess.

I think the most likely option is  ERC+JxCAT, with Pere Aragonès  as President de la Generalitat and a Junts member as Speaker of the Parliament

I mean the fact the the ERC leads Junts means that there are other options if they want to pursue a different path to independence than Pudigmont's. ERC+CUP (+ECP?) with outside Junts votes for example.

[Velasco]

I was believing that the PSC lead would grow with the late returns but it seems that the opposite happened. Now, what kind of government will come out of this is anyone's guess.

I think the most likely option is  ERC+JxCAT, with Pere Aragonès  as President de la Generalitat and a Junts member as Speaker of the Parliament

I mean the fact the the ERC leads Junts means that there are other options if they want to pursue a different path to independence than Pudigmont's. ERC+CUP (+ECP?) with outside Junts votes for example.

I think there's no chance that JxCAT supports an ERC minority government from the outside

ERC+ECP propped up by the PSC is a remote possibility, in case ERC and JxCAT fail to reach an agreement or the CUP refuses to prop them up

But ERC, Junts and the CUP are vindicating pro-independence parties got more than 50% of the vote. They have a lot of differences on strategy and personal quarrels, but they will be pressed by the independence movement to reach a compromise and banish the PSC. Presumably it won't be an easy investiture nor a stable government

[Velasco]

 ERC candidate Pere  Aragonès says that he will seek a broad alliance with the parties supporting the right to self-determination and amnesty for the jailed politicians. Aragonès has contacted JxCAT, CUP, ECP and PDeCAT candidates. He has not contacted aSalvador Illa. The problem is that JxCAT and ECP are totally incompatible.  On the other hand, the hostility of many JxCAT leading figures towards ERC makes a coalition agreement and the future cohabitation very difficult. But still, the most likely option is that ERC and JxCAT continue sharing the government

Initially ERC would seek a minority government with CUP and ECP,  propped up by Junts. I doubt the Puigdemont party is willing to be left putside the government

[Mike88]

Only Barcelona is now yet to finish. But, it won't change the final results.

ERC candidate Pere  Aragonès says that he will seek a broad alliance with the parties supporting the right to self-determination and amnesty for the jailed politicians. Aragonès has contacted JxCAT, CUP, ECP and PDeCAT candidates. He has not contacted aSalvador Illa. The problem is that JxCAT and ECP are totally incompatible.  On the other hand, the hostility of many JxCAT leading figures towards ERC makes a coalition agreement and the future cohabitation very difficult. But still, the most likely option is that ERC and JxCAT continue sharing the government

His words seem to be pointing that way. I agree that ECP and Junts are completely incompatible, ideological and working wise. But, we'll see what happens. Elections in October could still be also a possibility.

[Velasco]

JxCAT and ECP are antagonistic in Catalonia

Albiach is still calling for a left-wing tripartite with ERC and PSC

The ECP result is not bad, given the circumstances

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

It looks like PDeCAT ate a solid chunk of Junts' support and increased the secessionist vote overall but they appear to have fallen just short of actually winning seats. Curious what they do next and whether their vote consolidates back behind Junts or not.

[Velasco]

It looks like PDeCAT ate a solid chunk of Junts' support and increased the secessionist vote overall but they appear to have fallen just short of actually winning seats. Curious what they do next and whether their vote consolidates back behind Junts or not.

The pro-independence share grew because turnout decrease affected differently the different 'national communities'. Overall turnout on election day fell abruptly from some 82% in 2017 to 53.5% in 2021. If you go to te elections website, you'll notice that nearly all parties are losing votes. Only the PSC gained some, while Vox didn't contest the 2017 elections

PSC +44,368
ERC -333,203
JxCAT + PDeCAT -303,845 (JUNTSxCAT in 2017)
VOX +217,371 (new)
CUP -6,416
ECP -132,249
Cs -952,203
PP -76,289

With 'national communities' I refer to the different answers on identity respondents give in polls. The identity categories in CIS and CEO surveys are: "Only Catalan", More Catalan than Spaniard", "Equally Catalan and Spaniard", More Spaniard than Catalan" and "Only Spaniard"

The PDeCAT is the remnant of the formerly hegemonic CDC (major partner of CiU), which was a consttuent party of the Junts per Catalunya coalition in 2017 but parted ways with Puigdemont in 2020

[Velasco]

I don't have a clue about the future of the PDeCAT. Maybe the party will disappear like Unió after the 2015 elections. It's possible that many PDeCAT members will join JxCAT on a individual basis, even if the party remains. Apparently there is no ground for moderate nationalism in today's Catalonia. The failure of the PNC led by Marta Pascal is tragic. The remnants of Unió are integrated in the PSC list

[Velasco]

Results in Barcelona (Turnout 57.13%)

PSC 23.56, ERC 19.07, JxCAT 17.87, ECP 9.19, VOX 7.15, CUP 6.92, Cs 6.23, PP 5.3, PDeCAT 2.84

The PSC comes first in 6 distructs: Ciutat Vella, Sants-Montjüic, Horta-Guinardó, Nou Barris, Sant Andreu and Sant Martí

JxCAT comes first in 4: Eixample, Les Corts, Sarrià-Sant Gervasi and Gràcia

As usual the best district for the PSC is Nou Barris (33.55), but this time the worst is not the affluent Sarrià-Sant Gervasi (18.44) but the nationalistic Gràcia (17.51). The vote for JxCAT is more concentrated in the uptown districts, where the Puigdemont party leads with results in the low 20s. The best JxCAT district is Gràcia (23.45) and the worst Nou Barris (8.92). The vote for ERC is more evenly distributed, which explains why the Junqueras party gets more more votes than JxCAT in the municipality without leading a single district. The best district for ERC is Sants-Montjüic (22.13) and the worst is Sarrià-Sant Gervasi (11.06). En Comú Podem gets its best result in Ciutat Vella (14.18) and the worst in Sarrià-Sant Gervasi (4.46). VOX, PP and Cs follow a similar pattern: better results in the sociological extremes (upper class neighbourhoods and low income periphery) and worse in the middle-class areas. In Sariià-Sant Gervasi, the most affluent district of Barcelona, PP gets 11.56, VOX 11.23 and Cs 8.47. In the upper-middle class Gràcia Vox gets 4.34, Cs 4.17 and PP 3.31. Following the opposite pattern, the CUP gets its best result in Gràcia (10.6) and the worst in Sarrià-Sant Gervasi (3.94). The PDeCAT gets 7.43 in the upppity Sarrià-Sant Gervasi and 0.96 in the low income Nou Barris

Hospitalet de Llobregat (Turnout 47.03%)

PSC 38.96, ERC 15.73, VOX 9.65, ECP 8.87, Cs 7.96, JxCAT 7.18, PP 5.36, CUP 3.51, PDeCAT 0.68

Badalona (Turnout 45.75%)

PSC 30.16, ERC 18.86, JxCAT 12.01, VOX 9.75, ECP 8.04, Cs 6.67, PP 5.73, CUP 5.48, PDeCAT 1.31

Terrassa (Turnout 50.59%)

PSC 25.89, ERC 20.98, JxCAT 16.65, VOX 9.18, ECP 7.56, Cs 6.4, CUP 5.51, PP 3.35, PDeCAT 2.03

Sabadell (Turnout 52.72%)

PSC 27.01, ERC 20.09, JxCAT 17.61, VOX 7.83, ECP 7.83, CUP 6.26, Cs 6.11, PP 3.17, PDeCAT 2.13

Mataró (Turnout 49.9%)

PSC 24.72, ERC 20.13, JxCAT 18.67, VOX 10.7, ECP 6.66, Cs 5.9, CUP 5.45, PP 3.49, PDeCAT 2.33

Santa Coloma de Gramenet (Turnout 44.42%)

PSC 41.67, ERC 14.93, VOX 9.88, ECP 9.81, Cs 8.48, JxCAT 4.77, PP 4.49, CUP 3.4, PDeCAT 0.55

Manresa (Turnout 52.82%)

JxCAT 30.0, ERC 23.72, PSC 15.68, CUP 8.57, VOX 5.53, ECP 4.68, PDeCAT 4.11, Cs 3.26, PP 2.3

Tarragona (Turnout 52.41%)

PSC 24.49, ERC 18.92, JxCAT 14.29, VOX 12.04, PP 7.83, Cs 7.1, ECP 5.85, CUP 5.59, PDeCAT 1.71

Reus (Turnout 46.7%)

ERC 21.1, PSC 20.82, JxCAT 20.0, VOX 10.16, CUP 7.45, Cs 5.79, ECP 4.5, PP 4.48, PDeCAT 3.04

Lleida (Turnout 50.09%)

ERC 21.91, JxCAT 21.17, PSC 20.79, VOX 9.04, CUP 6.12, PP 5.63, Cs 5.29, ECP 4.36, PDeCAT 2.85

Girona (Turnout 57.62%)

JxCAT 32.79, ERC 17.41, PSC 16.59, CUP 10.82, VOX 6.11, ECP 4.36, Cs 3.46, PDeCAT 3.01, PP 2.42

[Logical]

Vox is an urban party but their best result percentage wise was in Val d'Arran.

[Zinneke]

Vox is an urban party but their best result percentage wise was in Val d'Arran.

I mean, Val d'Arran is an outlier where the overall "unionist" vote share in % is going to be far higher than most places.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Hey.

So the result was an almost three-way tie between PSC, ERC and Junts (in this order).

Basically 1/4 of the seats to PSC, 1/4 to ERC, 1/4 to Junts, and 1/4 to everyone else combined (mostly unionists).

I have no idea what will happen next. If a continuation of the current alliance between ERC and Junts while difficult is still the most likely scenario, since it would remain a minority government, how would the investiture work? CUP abstention again as a matter of course?