Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Lumine]

RIP C's. It was fun while it lasted.

[kaoras]

The seats are still allocated by D'Hondt method over 4 separate districts right ?

Yes

[Mike88]

Pundits are saying, on TVE, that if ERC wins, Junts is out of government and ERC will make a deal with Cómun and the outside support of PSC. If Junts wins, a government is impossible. New elections? Who knows at this point.

[Former President tack50]

Pundits are saying, on TVE, that if ERC wins, Junts is out of government and ERC will make a deal with Cómun and the outside support of PSC. If Junts wins, a government is impossible. New elections? Who knows at this point.

IMO ERC and Junts will just do a deal one way or the other. Then if need be CUP will provide outside support.

[Former President tack50]

Anyways, finally we have votes from all provinces.

0.01% of the vote in

JxCat 60
ERC 32
CUP 16
PDECat 12
PSC 8
ECP 3
PP 2
Vox 1

Needless to say, this won't last and secessionist areas count first

[Oryxslayer]

Showed for a moment, so I snapped a pic. The parties voter base this year broken down by age cohort, according to the exit poll. I don't think theres anything too surprising here.

[jaichind]

Pundits are saying, on TVE, that if ERC wins, Junts is out of government and ERC will make a deal with Cómun and the outside support of PSC. If Junts wins, a government is impossible. New elections? Who knows at this point.

What if PSC comes in first ?  I thought that Junts and ERC were going to make a deal no matter what and the election is more about which of the two is top dog.

[Mike88]

Pundits are saying, on TVE, that if ERC wins, Junts is out of government and ERC will make a deal with Cómun and the outside support of PSC. If Junts wins, a government is impossible. New elections? Who knows at this point.

IMO ERC and Junts will just do a deal one way or the other. Then if need be CUP will provide outside support.

Maybe, everything is open. I like the guy, on TVE, who said he's an independentist abstainer, and that it doesn't matter if either Junts or ERC win, there're both liars.

[Oryxslayer]

Pundits are saying, on TVE, that if ERC wins, Junts is out of government and ERC will make a deal with Cómun and the outside support of PSC. If Junts wins, a government is impossible. New elections? Who knows at this point.

IMO ERC and Junts will just do a deal one way or the other. Then if need be CUP will provide outside support.

Maybe, everything is open. I like the guy, on TVE, who said he's an independentist abstainer, and that it doesn't matter if either Junts or ERC win, there're both liars.

I mean we know that the ERC's base is my more in favor of persuing a legal form of independence, rather than the clean break Junts and Pudigmont pinned themselves to these past few years. It's just that they are duty bound to follow them since Junts leads the nationalist block. If ERC tops the polls, then maybe they'll look for an alternative separate from Junts ideal.

[Mike88]

It's still very, very early, but, IMO, it seems that Junts is not performing very well. ERC seems to be on the verge of surpassing them, with less than 2% counted and PSC continues creeping up.

[Zinneke]

Wonderful strategy from the 155 hardliners. Really worked wonders! 15 seats overall? lmfao

[Mike88]

Junts just fell to 3rd place in terms of seats. ERC and PSC surpasses them.

[Former President tack50]

Wonderful strategy from the 155 hardliners. Really worked wonders! 15 seats overall? lmfao

In fairness to the "trifachito", that is pretty much PP's historical base from back in the day; 15 seats or so were the norm for them.

[Oryxslayer]

It's still very, very early, but, IMO, it seems that Junts is not performing very well. ERC seems to be on the verge of surpassing them, with less than 2% counted and PSC continues creeping up.

Which of course is notable cause the ERC does comparatively better in Tarragona and Barcelona when compared to the rurals, and the rurals count faster. Maybe they will pass Junts. There is the possibility in the cards for an electoral fluke, where Junts wins Lledia and Girona and the PSC wins Barcelona and Tarragona, but the ERC wins cause it came in second in all 4. Its very unlikely of course.

Wonderful strategy from the 155 hardliners. Really worked wonders! 15 seats overall? lmfao

The goal for those guys is Spain and Spanish nationalism, not Catalonia. Catalonia is a triagable scapegoat.

[jaichind]

3 way tie for first in terms of seats.  How exciting.

[Oryxslayer]

Map of what's reporting right now. Obviously not everything colored in is 100% reporting, or we will be at >70% counted because of Barcelona and her suburbs.

[Mike88]

Map of what's reporting right now. Obviously not everything colored in is 100% reporting, or we will be at >70% counted because of Barcelona and her suburbs.

Yes, but it seems that the predictions overestimated the support for the pro-independent parties. The vote counted later normally is more pro-unionist and there's still a huge amount yet to count.

[Oryxslayer]

Just checked on Barcelona (city) and Junts+PDeCAT is down 4% there compared to JxC, more than in rural areas. It's early, but I wonder if at the end of the day we will see that oh so common trend (yes US but its across the west) where the ERC gains from the nationalist voter pool in Urban areas compared to Junts in Rurals.

[Skye]

21% in and the PSC is almost at 25% of the vote, much like how C's won back in 2017.

[Mike88]

21% in and the PSC is almost at 25% of the vote, much like how C's won back in 2017.

With the almost same counted in 2017, C's was at 34 seats, Junts also at 34 and ERC at 32. It ended C's 36, Junts 34 and ERC 32.

[jaichind]

So most likely no two parties can form a majority.  Plenty room for all sorts of post-election maneuvers.

[Velasco]

This result in the Spanish right camp is the consequence of:

a) The incompetence of the Rajoy government handling the crisis in Catalonia, which had a tragic conclusion in October 2017

b) That picture at Colón Square in Madrid, which consecrated two antagonistic blocs in Spain and whitewashed Vox. The Cape Canaveral of Vox and the tomb of Cs (Albert Rivera had the chance of approaching Pedro Sánchez after the April 2019 elections; it would have been anotherstory)

C) PP's structural corruption

The Spanish centre-right (excluding Vox) needs a refoundation

[Oryxslayer]

Oh and I know we are talking about PSC/ERC/Junts, but the other story is that VOX is right now at 8%. Yes they, and the right overall, has a ceiling and PP+C's+VOX is basically at it, but does anyone know if that percentage goes up or down? More non-Catalan Nationalist votes later on, but they are from urban areas that are not equivalent to Madrid.

[Skye]

Oh and I know we are talking about PSC/ERC/Junts, but the other story is that VOX is right now at 8%. Yes they, and the right overall, has a ceiling and PP+C's+VOX is basically at it, but does anyone know if that percentage goes up or down? More non-Catalan Nationalist votes later on, but they are from urban areas that are not equivalent to Madrid.

I've been paying attention to both VOX and the PSC's % for the past few updates and they seem to be losing a bit of ground. With 71% in, the PSC is now at 23.8% of the vote with 33 seats while VOX is at 7.8% but still with 11 seats. The PDeCAT was fighting for a seat in Lleida, but they're at 4.7% of the vote (and falling with each update) while VOX is taking that last seat with 5.3% of the vote.

[jaichind]

Looks like the pro-independence vote will exceed 50% but seat wise the result were more lukewarm.  I guess to many votes got wasted on PDeCAT.