Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

What does our Spanish posters' gut feeling say today, on election day?

Also, at which hour do polling stations close?

Polling stations will close at 20:00 local time, but results are expected to take longer to come in than usual. Still Spain tends to count ballots very fast so by midnight we should have upwards of 99% of the vote counted if all things go to plan.

My gut feeling (though I've had this the entire campaign) is that PSC will underperform and Junts will overperform but that's not really based on anything and I have not paid too much attention.

[Mike88]

Allowing voters in quarantine to vote in person in the last hour of voting is just insane, IMO. Why didn't they impose vote by mail for these voters? It's allowed in Spain.

Worth noting that in Spain vote by mail still requires you to either:

a) Physically go to the post office to deliver your ballot
b) Give the ballot in person to the mail delivery man when he gets to your house

So really you are only moving the problem. Spain's "vote by mail" system works less like what Americans understand by vote by mail and more like a glorified version of early voting.

Worth noting that during the Galician/Basque elections people under quarantine were not allowed to vote period, which was the way to go this time imo; but I guess it was just too many people and courts would not have accepted de facto disenfranchising so many people

Fun fact #1: While you can request the necessary documents to vote by mail online, you are required to have an electronic ID or other equivalent forms of documentation. I am not sure how many people actually have them but I think that a large amount of people certainly don't (not to mention old people who are technologically illiterate)

Fun fact #2: Before COVID times you would need to visit the post office a whopping 3 times to vote by mail! Once to request voting by mail, a second time to take your ballots and documents and a final time to actually vote.

Ohhh... I see. I thought mail voting in Spain was American like. And I thought that the "quarantine" vote in Portugal, last January, was weird and complicated, forget about that, it wasn't that bad now. There was no change of the laws in order to ease voting, then?

[Former President tack50]

Allowing voters in quarantine to vote in person in the last hour of voting is just insane, IMO. Why didn't they impose vote by mail for these voters? It's allowed in Spain.

Worth noting that in Spain vote by mail still requires you to either:

a) Physically go to the post office to deliver your ballot
b) Give the ballot in person to the mail delivery man when he gets to your house

So really you are only moving the problem. Spain's "vote by mail" system works less like what Americans understand by vote by mail and more like a glorified version of early voting.

Worth noting that during the Galician/Basque elections people under quarantine were not allowed to vote period, which was the way to go this time imo; but I guess it was just too many people and courts would not have accepted de facto disenfranchising so many people

Fun fact #1: While you can request the necessary documents to vote by mail online, you are required to have an electronic ID or other equivalent forms of documentation. I am not sure how many people actually have them but I think that a large amount of people certainly don't (not to mention old people who are technologically illiterate)

Fun fact #2: Before COVID times you would need to visit the post office a whopping 3 times to vote by mail! Once to request voting by mail, a second time to take your ballots and documents and a final time to actually vote.

Ohhh... I see. I thought mail voting in Spain was American like. And I thought that the "quarantine" vote in Portugal, last January, was weird and complicated, forget about that, it wasn't that bad now. There was no change of the laws in order to ease voting, then?

Compared to the Basque/Galician elections last summer yeah there have been no changes whatsoever.

Compared to pre-COVID times the main differences seem to be

a) You don't need to physically go to a post office to request to vote by mail; you can instead do that online
b) You no longer need to physically sign a document to verify that you received your ballots
c) Instead of physically going to the post office to deliver your ballot, you can just give it to the mailman when he gives you your ballots.

[Mike88]

Allowing voters in quarantine to vote in person in the last hour of voting is just insane, IMO. Why didn't they impose vote by mail for these voters? It's allowed in Spain.

Worth noting that in Spain vote by mail still requires you to either:

a) Physically go to the post office to deliver your ballot
b) Give the ballot in person to the mail delivery man when he gets to your house

So really you are only moving the problem. Spain's "vote by mail" system works less like what Americans understand by vote by mail and more like a glorified version of early voting.

Worth noting that during the Galician/Basque elections people under quarantine were not allowed to vote period, which was the way to go this time imo; but I guess it was just too many people and courts would not have accepted de facto disenfranchising so many people

Fun fact #1: While you can request the necessary documents to vote by mail online, you are required to have an electronic ID or other equivalent forms of documentation. I am not sure how many people actually have them but I think that a large amount of people certainly don't (not to mention old people who are technologically illiterate)

Fun fact #2: Before COVID times you would need to visit the post office a whopping 3 times to vote by mail! Once to request voting by mail, a second time to take your ballots and documents and a final time to actually vote.

Ohhh... I see. I thought mail voting in Spain was American like. And I thought that the "quarantine" vote in Portugal, last January, was weird and complicated, forget about that, it wasn't that bad now. There was no change of the laws in order to ease voting, then?

Compared to the Basque/Galician elections last summer yeah there have been no changes whatsoever.

Compared to pre-COVID times the main differences seem to be

a) You don't need to physically go to a post office to request to vote by mail; you can instead do that online
b) You no longer need to physically sign a document to verify that you received your ballots
c) Instead of physically going to the post office to deliver your ballot, you can just give it to the mailman when he gives you your ballots.

Hmm... you cannot even put the ballot in the mail box? It has to be delivered personally to the mailman, right?

[Former President tack50]

Hmm... you cannot even put the ballot in the mail box? It has to be delivered personally to the mailman, right?

Yeah, in order to verify your identity you need to give the ballot to the mailman; whether when he gets to your house, or by you physically going to the post office.

You can't just simply put a ballot in the mail box.

[Mike88]

Turnout at 6pm seems around 45.7%, minus 22% compared with 2017.

[Mike88]

Why not?

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1360996854163517441

Catalonia: voter arrives at the electoral college disguised as Bert from Sesame Street carrying a sign that says "no politician will protect you, put on an PPE".

[Former President tack50]

Right now is the intended turn for Covid infected people to vote. Therefore if you are curious, this is how polling stations look right now

[Mike88]

I'm watching the TVE live broadcast and they are saying that basically no one is showing up to vote after 7pm, the time for people infected/in quarantine.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

What does our Spanish posters' gut feeling say today, on election day?

Also, at which hour do polling stations close?

Polling stations will close at 20:00 local time, but results are expected to take longer to come in than usual. Still Spain tends to count ballots very fast so by midnight we should have upwards of 99% of the vote counted if all things go to plan.

My gut feeling (though I've had this the entire campaign) is that PSC will underperform and Junts will overperform but that's not really based on anything and I have not paid too much attention.

Looking forward to an eventful evening, then. The mail votes are counted together with the regular votes, I suppose?

And I hope your gut feeling is wrong (actually given what I know about your politics you should hope it is wrong as well - are you a pessimist now?).

[Former President tack50]

What does our Spanish posters' gut feeling say today, on election day?

Also, at which hour do polling stations close?

Polling stations will close at 20:00 local time, but results are expected to take longer to come in than usual. Still Spain tends to count ballots very fast so by midnight we should have upwards of 99% of the vote counted if all things go to plan.

My gut feeling (though I've had this the entire campaign) is that PSC will underperform and Junts will overperform but that's not really based on anything and I have not paid too much attention.

Looking forward to an eventful evening, then. The mail votes are counted together with the regular votes, I suppose?

And I hope your gut feeling is wrong (actually given what I know about your politics you should hope it is wrong as well - are you a pessimist now?).

I have always been a pessimist Hoping I am proven wrong though! Here is my prediction (which I made like a week ago and haven't bothered to update):

Junts: 34
ERC: 32
PSC: 26
Cs: 15
Comuns: 9
CUP: 7
Vox: 7
PP: 5
PDECat: 0

I will say that I am extremely likely to get Cs wrong, it seems to me that they've just gone downhill instead of up like I predicted when I did my prediction at the start of the campaign

And yeah mail votes are counted along the regular votes. Mail votes issued abroad are counted 48 hours later if I am not mistaken, but they won't change more than 1 seat, maybe 2 at most.

[Oryxslayer]

Generalitat results page: https://resultados.parlament2021.cat/resultados/resumen/AUCI

El pais: https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/cataluna.html

[jaichind]

Which parties would be hurt by lower turnout?

[Mike88]

TVE prediction:

36-38 ERC
34-36 PSC
30-33 Junts
       7 CUP
    6-7 Podem
    6-7 Vox
    6-7 C's
    4-5 PP
    0-2 PDeCat

[jaichind]

Exit poll
Socialists 35
Junts 30-33
Esquerra 36-38
VOX 6-7

[Mike88]

Other prediction:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1361027807929913346

Too early to call.

[jaichind]

One things seems to be for sure: C underperformed.

[Former President tack50]

TV3-GAD3 poll, popular vote:

PSC: 24.5%
ERC: 24.3%
Junts: 20.5%
Comuns: 6%
Vox 5.9%
CUP: 5.4%
Cs 5.3%
PP 4.6%
PDeCat: 2.5%

Secessionists >50% for the first time ever

[Oryxslayer]

RTV "Exit" (Late) Poll:

[Oryxslayer]

So yeah two takeaway's if the exits are correct:

- Catalan Nationalists >50%. Potential for a Junts+ERC govt on their own.

- The Ball is in truly ERC's court on what govt gets formed. Pre-election, it was a case of a Junts led govt or a PSC led left govt.

[kaoras]

I absolutely refuse to believe that ERC is capable of winning a real election (european doesn't count)

[Former President tack50]

First polling place reporting, some random place in Tarragona province (almost certainly super rural):

JxCat: 42.86%
ERC: 28.57%
PSC: 7.14%
CUP: 7.14%
Primaries: 7.14%
Vox: 3.57%

[jaichind]

The seats are still allocated by D'Hondt method over 4 separate districts right ?

[Mike88]

Another one: (this with Junts ahead)

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1361030305998655488

48.73% Independentists
48.15% Non-Independentists

[jaichind]

I guess the battle between JxCat, ERC and PSC activated their voters to come out and lower turnout are about the rest not turning out as much.