Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

Looks like there are a lot of polls being de facto released after the legal ban on polls.  If so what is the point of this law ?

In the modern age? There really isn't a point, and parties have sometimes talked about repealing it but it isn't really worth it.

Back in the day it was meant to have people decide their vote without any opinion polling, but rather people choosing the party genuinely on their merits and avoiding tactical voting.

However, in recent times it has become a trend to either publish "The Andorran fruit shop that predicts the Catalan elections"; or alternatively to simply just publish polls in foreign media (El Periodic d'Andorra, or some Scottish nationalist publications)

[TheSaint250]

GESOP/Andorra Market

PSC 23.0 (32/34)
ERC 20.8 (31/33)
Junts 18.8 (29/31)
Vox 7.5 (9/10)
ECP 6.9 (8/9)
Cs 6.7 (7/8)
CUP 6 4 (8/9)
PP 4.4 (4/5)
PDeCAT 3.0 (0/2)

Turnout 56/58

Vox at fourth--would not have expected that

[Velasco]

Vox at fourth--would not have expected that

It's apparently a last minute surge that resembles the last Andalusian election. Possible causes: former Cs voters with a stronger Spanish identity* are switching en masse to Vox, the impact of the PP corruption scandals prevent transfers from Cs to PP. Some pro-independence "antifa" groups (allegedly linked ti the CUP) have tried to sabotage Vox rallies throwing stones and such. These actions have helped to boost the Vox campaign; Cs candidate condemned the attackers during the last night debate reminding his party has suffered similar Vandal actions, as it's is the pioneering force in the fight against separatism. The Cs downfall is apparently unstoppable

*The percentage of Catalans identifying only as Spaniards is about 6%, while the percentage saying they feel more Spaniard than Catalan is also small. The point is that Vox is seemingly catching all those voters primarily driven by identity feelings opposed to those of the Catalan separatists

The dumpster fires in Barcelona after the Supreme Court rule on the jailed Catalan politicians, days before the November 2019 elections, contributed to boost Vox in many parts of Spain.  Vandalism broadcast live in TV can be impressive

[Velasco]

Feedback/The National

Junts 20.3 (32/35)
PSC 20.3 (29/30)
ERC 17.8 (27/28)
Cs 10.3 (13/14)
ECP 8.6 (10/12)
CUP 7.1 (9)
VOX 5.1 (5/6)
PP 4.1 (3/5)
PDeCAT 2.2 (0)

GESOP/Andorra Market (3)

PSC 23.1 (32/34)
ERC 20.8 (311/33)
Junts 18.8 (28/30)
Vox 7.0 (8/9)
ECP 7.0 (8/9)
Cs 7.0 (8/9)
CUP 6.1 (8/9)
PP 4.4 (4/5)
PDeCAT 3.4 (0/3)

Three questions:

1) Which party comes first: PSC, ERC or Junts

2) Which party leads the pro-independence camp (and presumably the next Catalan government)

3) Which party leads the Spanish Right bloc: the effect of a Vox result like the one predicted by GESOP could be devastating for Casado and Arrimadas

[Mike88]

Curiously, the other poll by GESOP, published in Andorra, has Junts crashing at 18.8%.

[Velasco]

Curiously, the other poll by GESOP, published in Andorra, has Junts crashing at 18.8%.

According to GESOP, the PDeCAT would be gaining some ground at the expense of Junts. It makes a big difference getting 2% or 3% of the vote, given that the last figure is the threshold to win seats in parliament

[Velasco]

Candidates clash in acrimonious debate

https://english.elpais.com/politics/catalonia_independence/2021-02-12/candidates-clash-in-acrimonious-debate-ahead-of-catalan-election.html

 Candidates for the Catalan regional election sparred Thursday night at the last televised debate before voters go to the polls on Sunday. Former Health Minister Salvador Illa was the target of most of the attacks, reflecting that surveys show a tie between his Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and separatist groups.

The nine contenders exchanged insults ranging from “fascist” to “terrorist” and the debate at times descended into a shouting match, with moderator Ana Pastor struggling to contain the speakers.

The election campaign in Spain’s northeastern region, where nearly six million people are eligible to vote, has been marked by the coronavirus pandemic. Applications for mail-in ballots have tripled since the previous election in 2017, according to the postal service. And a quarter of the 82,251 citizens who were randomly selected to man the voting stations have requested to be excused from their duty, reflecting widespread fear about contracting the virus (...)

Since then, all the other contenders have treated Illa as the candidate to beat, and this strategy was on clear display at the two-hour debate on Thursday, organized by the private television station La Sexta. Illa was the target of numerous verbal attacks from the other candidates to head the region, which is currently governed by a separatist coalition of the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) and Together for Catalonia (Junts).

I watched it last night and it was a lamentable spectacle.  The only candidate with whom I got a good impression was Jéssica Albiach, because she was the only one who didn't go to the bottom of the mud pit. Albiach regretted that ERC is tied to Junts andxdeened a farce the document that commit pro-independence parties to reject deals with the PSC; " you arecgoing to make Joan Canadell president one day". Canadell is the alleged Trumpist who chairs the Chamber of Commerce and says that people coming from other regions are "colonists". Albiach is from Valencia, so probably she's not a "foreigner" for a CUP pancatalanist

Salvador Illa was target of many attacks and was heavily criticized because he refused to take a PCR test arguing that he's following the protocols of the Health ministry. Given that hechas no symptoms and had no recent contact with infected persons, Illa deems that taking the rest is "overacting" and a "privilege".  The health ministry denied that he is vaccinated, because Pablo Casado suggested that was the reason he refused to take the test in the previous debate in TV3.  Someone said that Illa should have wear a mask during the debate.  Terrible

The attacks began straight away when Laura Borràs (Junts), Carlos Carrizosa (Citizens) and Alejandro Fernández (PP) all demanded that Illa wear a facemask due to the fact that he refused to take a coronavirus test ahead of an earlier debate on regional Catalan television channel TV3. Since then, both right-wing and pro-independence politicians have been circulating unfounded claims that Illa may have cheated his way into early Covid-19 vaccination and that this would explain his refusal to be tested. The Health Ministry has refuted this claim.

The former minister hit back: “Anything goes against Illa, even defamation. Of course I haven’t been vaccinated. I hope you will apologize to Catalans. This is the kind of thing I want to change: the confrontation, the lies.”
 

The Vox candidate told many lies. He made the usual claims linking immigration and crime and said there is an Islamic invasion going on on Catalonia. He attacked separatists, too

Meanwhile, Ignacio Garriga of Vox promised to end “the ideological ravings” of the independence parties, accusing them of cutting back on public healthcare spending. “If doctors in Catalonia did not have facemasks, it’s because you’ve been robbing Catalans for decades and using the money to fund your parties and Puigdemont’s mansion,” he said.  

That's the level of Catalan politics nowadays



  

[Mike88]

Curiously, the other poll by GESOP, published in Andorra, has Junts crashing at 18.8%.

According to GESOP, the PDeCAT would be gaining some ground at the expense of Junts. It makes a big difference getting 2% or 3% of the vote, given that the last figure is the threshold to win seats in parliament

Is PDeCAT more soft on Independence or not? I see their are clearly a center-right party, not the mess Junts seems to be, ideologically, at least.

[Velasco]

Curiously, the other poll by GESOP, published in Andorra, has Junts crashing at 18.8%.

According to GESOP, the PDeCAT would be gaining some ground at the expense of Junts. It makes a big difference getting 2% or 3% of the vote, given that the last figure is the threshold to win seats in parliament

Is PDeCAT more soft on Independence or not? I see their are clearly a center-right party, not the mess Junts seems to be, ideologically, at least.

The PDeCAT is openly pro-independence, but rejects unilateralism and deals with the far-left CUP.  Candidate Angels Chacón also signed the document committing her party not to make deals with the PSC. The party advocates 'business friendly' policies, such as low taxes and support to entrepeneurs, styling as a group of competent people with experience in government. As the legal heir of CDC the party tries to appeal the traditional CiU voters, whom used to be people of order. Junts is indeed a mess, as it's a party with a majority of former CDC members but incorporates many other groups with different ideologies. Junts styles itself as "progressive" to differentiate from the "reactionary" Spanish nationalists and its candidate Laura Borràs claims to be more leftist than Salvador Illa. But that's likely a delusion and the sudden conversion of all the ex-CDC to progressivism is dubious for some. One of the main goals of Junts is to prevent that ERC becomes the hegemonic force of Catalan nationalism. Given that a majority of voters is self-placing on the centre-left,  Junts tries to be identified as such. In order to he perceived as progressive, Junts withdrew the proosal to abolish the inheritance tax and diminished the protagonism of figures like Joan Canadell, who is the number three behind Puigdemont and Borràs

[Mike88]

Curiously, the other poll by GESOP, published in Andorra, has Junts crashing at 18.8%.

According to GESOP, the PDeCAT would be gaining some ground at the expense of Junts. It makes a big difference getting 2% or 3% of the vote, given that the last figure is the threshold to win seats in parliament

Is PDeCAT more soft on Independence or not? I see their are clearly a center-right party, not the mess Junts seems to be, ideologically, at least.

The PDeCAT is openly pro-independence, but rejects unilateralism and deals with the far-left CUP.  Candidate Angels Chacón also signed the document committing her party not to make deals with the PSC. The party advocates 'business friendly' policies, such as low taxes and support to entrepeneurs, styling as a group of competent people with experience in government. As the legal heir of CDC the party tries to appeal the traditional CiU voters, whom used to be people of order. Junts is indeed a mess, as it's a party with a majority of former CDC members but incorporates many other groups with different ideologies. Junts styles itself as "progressive" to differentiate from the "reactionary" Spanish nationalists and its candidate Laura Borràs claims to be more leftist than Salvador Illa. But that's likely a delusion and the sudden conversion of all the ex-CDC to progressivism is dubious for some. One of the main goals of Junts is to prevent that ERC becomes the hegemonic force of Catalan nationalism. Given that a majority of voters is self-placing on the centre-left,  Junts tries to be identified as such. In order to he perceived as progressive, Junts withdrew the proosal to abolish the inheritance tax and diminished the protagonism of figures like Joan Canadell, who is the number three behind Puigdemont and Borràs

Interesting. And that "document" committing parties to not make deals with PSC, will parties follow it or is it just a BS? Because it seems like a it.

[Velasco]

Interesting. And that "document" committing parties to not make deals with PSC, will parties follow it or is it just a BS? Because it seems like a it.

Some people is in your opinion,  adding that document sealed the PSC victory next Sunday.  We'll see if Illa succeeds and how long it lasts the pact against him. The PSC is arguing that deal is the "Colón square picture" of the Catalan nationalists

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting. And that "document" committing parties to not make deals with PSC, will parties follow it or is it just a BS? Because it seems like a it.

Some people is in your opinion,  adding that document sealed the PSC victory next Sunday.  We'll see if Illa succeeds and how long it lasts the pact against him. The PSC is arguing that deal is the "Colón square picture" of the Catalan nationalists

There's also the implicit assumption baked into that deal that the nationalists will once again get a majority of seats, and 2021 will just be 2017 but with the C's swapped for PSC. If they don't, which admittedly is unlikely but not the strangest thing possible, there would definitely be a push of some kind to avoid a Madrid/Israel situation where no government can be formed. Ignoring everything else PSC and VOX will never work together, so the nationalists failing to get a majority but standing by their pact basically ensures round 2 in a few months.

[Velasco]

Interesting. And that "document" committing parties to not make deals with PSC, will parties follow it or is it just a BS? Because it seems like a it.

Some people is in your opinion,  adding that document sealed the PSC victory next Sunday.  We'll see if Illa succeeds and how long it lasts the pact against him. The PSC is arguing that deal is the "Colón square picture" of the Catalan nationalists

There's also the implicit assumption baked into that deal that the nationalists will once again get a majority of seats, and 2021 will just be 2017 but with the C's swapped for PSC. If they don't, which admittedly is unlikely but not the strangest thing possible, there would definitely be a push of some kind to avoid a Madrid/Israel situation where no government can be formed. Ignoring everything else PSC and VOX will never work together, so the nationalists failing to get a majority but standing by their pact basically ensures round 2 in a few months.

A nationalist majority is practically inevitable when those parties combined get more than 45% of the vote, due to the overrepresentation of the rest of provinces with regards Barcelona. Turnout is expected to decrease by 20% or more and, depending on which groups of voters and geographical areas are the most affected, pto-independence parties could reach the 50% mark. According to pollsters Junts, CUP and VOX voters are the most motivated and these parties could get extraordinary results in case turnout falls below 60%. The PSC has chances of winning, but it will get a result below the 25% mark reached by Cs in 2017. The VOX surge makes even more impossible any coalition excluding nationalist parties. ERC has been always the key element in government formation. The goal of the people that promoted the anti-PSC deal is to ensure that ERC is tied permanently to Junts and perpetuate the identity bloc dynamics

[Mike88]

Ok, TV3 is just... well, weird:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1360361293081944066

Catalonia: TV3's results prediction hamster predicts victory for Junts and a pact with CUP

The hamster has called it.

[Velasco]

Ok, TV3 is just... well, weird:

Catalonia: TV3's results prediction hamster predicts victory for Junts and a pact with CUP

The hamster has called it.

The hamster has developed an acute political instinct

[Velasco]

Feedback/The National

Junts 20.7 (33/34)
PSC 20.0 (28/29)
ERC 18.8 (28/29)
Cs 9 3 (12/13)
ECP 8.5 (11)
CUP 5.6 (7/8)
VOX 5.4 (5/6)
PP 4.7 (5)
PDeCAT 2.8 (0/2)

GESOP/Andorra Market (4)

PSC 22.9 (31/33)
ERC 20.3 (31/33)
Junts 18.8 (28/30)
Cs 7.5 (8/9)
ECP 6.9 (8/9)
CUP 6.9 (8/9)
VOX 6.3 (7/8)
PP 5 5 (6/7)
PDeCAT 3.0 (0/2)


TV3 hamster: JUNTS

[Mike88]

Well, it's election day in Catalonia.

Polling stations started opening at 9am, but only at around 11am did all polling station were ready to receive voters.

Election results can be followed here: https://resultats.parlament2021.cat/resultados/0/catalunya

At 1pm, around 22.8% of voters had already cast a ballot, a drop of almost 12% compared with 2017.

[jaichind]

I assume exit polls will come out 8PM ?

[Mike88]

I assume exit polls will come out 8PM ?

I don't think in Spain they do exit polls. I think they present "predictions" based on polls in the days before polling day. But, not 100% sure.

[jaichind]

I assume exit polls will come out 8PM ?

I don't think in Spain they do exit polls. I think they present "predictions" based on polls in the days before polling day. But, not 100% sure.

Historically I believe Spain does have exit polls although some of them are, as you say, predictions based on last minute polling.  I was asking mostly in the context of the rules this year seems to be the last your of voting is reserved for those under quarantine which I imagine could delay or even cancel exit polls. 

[Former President tack50]

Historically I believe Spain does have exit polls although some of them are, as you say, predictions based on last minute polling.  I was asking mostly in the context of the rules this year seems to be the last your of voting is reserved for those under quarantine which I imagine could delay or even cancel exit polls. 

Like you say, Spain did indeed use to have "proper" exit polling. However, after it failed miserably twice in a row in 2015 and 2016; Spanish news media decided to drop traditional exit polling.

Here is the 2016 exit poll, compared to the real 2016 results to see just how miserably it failed

Instead, we started getting just good old regular telephone polls that were performed outside the legal period and published on election night. Though tbh I don't think they add much compared to the Andorra or Scotland based polls and are susceptible to the exact kinds of mistakes that regular polling can have.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

What does our Spanish posters' gut feeling say today, on election day?

Also, at which hour do polling stations close?

[Mike88]

Allowing voters in quarantine to vote in person in the last hour of voting is just insane, IMO. Why didn't they impose vote by mail for these voters? It's allowed in Spain.

[Former President tack50]

Allowing voters in quarantine to vote in person in the last hour of voting is just insane, IMO. Why didn't they impose vote by mail for these voters? It's allowed in Spain.

Worth noting that in Spain vote by mail still requires you to either:

a) Physically go to the post office to deliver your ballot
b) Give the ballot in person to the mail delivery man when he gets to your house

So really you are only moving the problem. Spain's "vote by mail" system works less like what Americans understand by vote by mail and more like a glorified version of early voting.

Worth noting that during the Galician/Basque elections people under quarantine were not allowed to vote period, which was the way to go this time imo; but I guess it was just too many people and courts would not have accepted de facto disenfranchising so many people

Fun fact #1: While you can request the necessary documents to vote by mail online, you are required to have an electronic ID or other equivalent forms of documentation. I am not sure how many people actually have them but I think that a large amount of people certainly don't (not to mention old people who are technologically illiterate)

Fun fact #2: Before COVID times you would need to visit the post office a whopping 3 times to vote by mail! Once to request voting by mail, a second time to take your ballots and documents and a final time to actually vote.

[Flyersfan232]

what are the various end game to catalan quest for freedom?