Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

Here is a very interesting report on the electorates of the different parties for the upcoming Catalan elections

https://www.naciodigital.cat/noticia/215437/perfil-votant-quins-son-mes-formats-rics-envellits-amb-mes-funcionaris

My summary:

By gender: PSC and (surprisingly) PDECat have a rather feminized electorate, while as you may expect, the radical parties of CUP on one side and Vox on the other have very masculine electorates. All the other parties are essencially 50-50.

By age: Again as you may expect the parties that rely the heaviest on young voters are UP and CUP; but interestingly also Vox. On the opposite end, the oldest electorates are those of PP, PDECat and to a lesser extent Junts and PSC

By rural vs urban: The parties that have their biggest bases in small municipalities (under 10k people) are as you may expect the secessionists of ERC, Junts and PDECat. Interestingly, Vox has the biggest rural base among unionists. On the opposite end of the scale, the most Barcelona city heavy electorates are those of Comuns, Cs, PP and CUP.

By (self identified) religion: The most devoutly Catholic electorates are those of PP, PDECat, Cs and to a lesser extent Junts and PSC. There are 2 parties that stick out a lot by having extremely secular electorates, CUP and Comuns.

As for minor religions, most evangelic/protestant heavy parties are the unionist parties of PP, PSC, Cs and Vox. Most muslim heavy parties meanwhile are surprisingly PSC and PP. Though I imagine these two must have very small sample sizes

By education: 3 parties stick out for having bases that are extremely heavily reliant on uneducated voters, with only a year 10 education or less: PP, PSC and Vox. On the opposite end of the scale, CUP's electorate is by far the most college educated one; it's not even close

By income: The parties most reliant on poor voters is PSC by far, followed by PP and Vox. The ones with the richest voters are Junts, but interestingly also CUP (parents' cash?)

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

1. So well-off Catalans are separatists and poorer ones are unionists? Shocked, shocked I tell you. Who could have guessed?

2. How many Evangelicals live in Spain exactly? And are they particularly overrepresented in Catalonia?

[Former President tack50]

1. So well-off Catalans are separatists and poorer ones are unionists? Shocked, shocked I tell you. Who could have guessed?

2. How many Evangelicals live in Spain exactly? And are they particularly overrepresented in Catalonia?

1) Well yes and no. Poor Catalans are unionists indeed. However, the super super rich Catalans (literally the 1%) are also unionists, the richest precincts in Catalonia give PP/Cs their best results in the region.

However yeah, the average unionist is poorer than the average secessionist. This is a 2017 poll but shows the point pretty well. Note how secessionism peaks on the "Upper middle class" before dipping down slightly among the wealthiest (and how people who don't want to disclose their income lean heavily unionist)



2) If I am not mistaken, somewhere around 1% of Spain's population is evangelical or protestant; and that number rises to around 2% in Catalonia. However they are just such a small sample size that I would not trust the numbers much

[Velasco]

2) If I am not mistaken, somewhere around 1% of Spain's population is evangelical or protestant; and that number rises to around 2% in Catalonia. However they are just such a small sample size that I would not trust the numbers much

 According to the 2008 census there were 1.2 million of protestants, of which 0.4 were Spanish citizens and 0 8 foreign residents (mainly from UK, USA and Germany).  Possibly there are more protestants now in 2021. It's important to note that many Spanish Evangelicals are gypsy. There were massive conversions in late XX century, to the point that currently there are more Evangelicals than Catholics among the Spanish gypsies. The most famous evangelical gypsy is the Catalan singer Peret,  the father of the Rumba Catalana.

According to the same 2008 census, there were 1 million of residents coming from countries with Orthodox tradition (Tomania  Bulgaria  Rissia, Ukraine) and 0.9 million coming from Muslim countries.

The Islamic population in 2020 was estimated in more than 2 million, of which 0.8 or 0.9 would be Spanish citizens and 1.2 million foreign citizens (Morocco and others). Catalonia is the region with the largest Muslim community and it has the highest proportion of Muslims in mainland Spain. Ceuta and Melilla are obviously the territories with the highest share, to the point that Melilla has a Muslim majority

[Velasco]

The Feedback poll released by the pro-independence El Nacional is remarkable

PSC 23.1% (33-34)
JxCAT 20.0% (31-34)
ERC 19.4% (29-32)
CUP 7.7% (9-11)
Cs 7.4% (9-10)
ECP 7.3% (8-10)
VOX 6.1% (6-9)
PP 3.9% (3-4)

Not sure if I buy this estimation. However, there are interesting trends.  From what I heard in the last transmission of the Piedras de Papel Twicht channel:

a) Analyzing CIS and CEO data, JxCAT and CUP voters are apparently the most motivated to show up

b) Transfers from JxCAT to ERC are negligible, so the Puigdemont party has recovered all the voters swinging to ERC in previous polls. JxCAT or JUNTS is more an electoral machine than a party

c) Transfers from Cs to PSC are higher than transfers from ECP to PSC. Transfers between blocs are negligible, likewise transfers between ERC and PSC or viceversa (CIS and CEO figures differ on the direction of said transfers)

d) PP and Cs voters are the more demobilized. Cs is losing a lot of Spanish nationalist voters to Vox

[Former President tack50]

Since many will want one as well, here is one of the classic "Who should you vote for?" tests for the Catalan election. Only available in Spanish and Catalan unfortunately

https://politigram.cat/

I am not sure if the GIFs make it the best or the worst such test ever I genuinely recommend that even if Google translate breaks the test, you should still take it only to watch the cringe GIFs

Here are my results for reference:

[Velasco]

ECP 90.2, PSC 80.4, ERC 76.5, CUP 74.3, JxCAT 52.6, Cs 45.0, PP 41.7, Vox 31.2

I don't disagree with the results, but not a fan of the GIFs

[Velasco]

The GESOP poll released this weekend predicts a sharp decrease in turnout (estimated between 56% and 58%, more than 20% below 2017) motivated by pandemic fear, with devastating effects for PP and Cs. Sigma Dos (El Mundo) and Opinómetre (Ara) predict a three-cirnered contest. I think predicting which party will come first is hazardous; my bet right now is that PSC gets more popular vote and Junts wins more seats. The trend is that Vox will surpass the PP, which is terrible news for Pablo Casado

GESOP/Sigma Dos/Opinómetre

PSC  23.0/22.9/20.7
ERC  20.8/20.8/21.8
Junts 18.8/21.4/19.7
Cs 7.6/9.2/8.4
ECP 7.7/7.0/6.9
CUP 6.3/5.7/6.6
VOX 6.9/5.4/5.2
PP  3.8/5.6/5.0

Mail vote requests have increased exponentially. Meanwhile more than 1/4 of the people appointed to be members of the polling stations have appealed, creating uncertainty on the formation of the different polling stations. The usual practice is to appoint substitute members, in order to cover possible absences. In case a polling station cannot be formed on election day, the vote is postponed teo days. A Catalan government official has raised the possibility of tsuspending the publication of results, in case there are many polling stations failing to be formed. On paper substitute members should suffice to cover absences on election day, but the climate discourages participation

[Zinneke]

[Former President tack50]

Apparently Junts is now identifying in some election posters as "Democratic Socialists". Can't wait for Bernie Sanders to attend a Junts rally any time now



Yes, the poster is real

[kaoras]

Well, is not Junts itself but Moviment de Esquerres which is technically a different party running on Junts lists. They used to run with ERC.

[Former President tack50]

Well, is not Junts itself but Moviment de Esquerres which is technically a different party running on Junts lists. They used to run with ERC.

Ah ok, that makes more sense then

[Velasco]

Well, is not Junts itself but Movement de Esquerres which is technically a different party running on Junts lists. They used to run with ERC.

Moviment d'Esquerres is the merger of a couple of groups splitted from the PSC, people from the Catalanist faction that joined the independence movement in the first stages of the sovereigntist process.  Marina Geli is a former Health minister of the Generalitat (under Pasqual Maragall and José Montilla). She is ine of the founders alongside Ernest Maragall, the brother of Pasqual Maragall and a former cabinet member with Quim Torra (JxCAT) and José Montilla (PSC). Ernest Maragall is also a former PSC member and remains in ERC, while Geli and other MES folks joined the Puigdemont list. Maragall was the ERC candidate for Mayor of Barcelona in 2019; his list won a plurality, but Ada Colau retained the mayoralty thanks to a coalition agreement between BComú and PSC with the outside support of councilors Manuel Valls and Eva Parera (Barcelona pl Canvi-Cs) . Toni Comín, who appears in that poster,  is currently a JxCAT MEP and a former regional minister when he was in the ERC ranks. Pere Albó is a former PSC mayor of Sant Feliu de Guíxols (Girona province)


In my opinion the poster reveals that Junts is basically a catch-all-party, or a big tent nationalist movement (electoral machine rather than traditonal party). MES is only a small group within the broader Junts per Catalunya and it's delusional the idea that Puigdemont is embracing democratic socialism  or that MES is the main standard bearer of democratic socialism in Catalonia. There are plenty of neoliberals within Junts and even some alleged Trumpists like Joan Canadell

[crals]

Truly a bizarre party. Do they do any governing other than grandstanding about independence? Do Catalans care at this point?

[Velasco]

From now on the only polls available will be the GESOP daily trackings released by El Periòdic d'Andorra

Cs and PP are having serious troubles, while Vox is on the rise. The decline of the orange party was expected already, but the new revelations of the former PP treasurer Luis Bárcenas may lead the Spanish conservatives to a collapse in Catalonia. Vox could reap the benefits of the PP's structural corruption, with the additional help of the self-styled pro-indpendence "anti-fascists" (Vox is taking advantage of their sabotage attempts and attacks to play the role of victim in social networks). The outcome of the Catalan elections is promising to have serious repercussions for the Spanish Right and complicate Spanish politics to a greater extent. It's not clear that the socialists are going to benefit from this context

https://english.elpais.com/politics/catalonia_independence/2021-02-08/spains-far-right-gains-ground-ahead-of-catalan-regional-election.html

The upcoming election in Catalonia on February 14 is poised to change the political landscape of the northeastern region. At the last regional poll in 2017, the center-right party Ciudadanos received the highest number of votes, but did not win enough seats to form a government. Two pro-Catalan independence parties, Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), with the support of the anti-capitalist party CUP, instead joined forces to take office.

But four years on, the situation has changed dramatically. The most striking difference is that this year the far-right party Vox is set to enter the Catalan parliament for the first time. Vox is gaining in the polls by using the same strategy that made Ciudadanos the most-voted party in 2017 – taking a hardline stance against the pro-independence movement. Last Wednesday, on the news program Els Matins, Vox’s candidate for premier, Ignacio Garriga, threatened to close down TV3, Catalonia’s public television channel, “for being a means of manipulation.” In 2018, the then-leader of Ciudadanos, Albert Rivera, made the same threats. On Saturday, around 50 protesters demonstrated at a Vox event in the city of Vic, throwing rocks, eggs, beer cans and packets of flour at Garriga and Vox general secretary Javier Ortega Smith. The situation had echoes of a similar protest two years ago when Inés Arrimadas, now the national leader of Ciudadanos, was insulted and jeered. The story is the same, but the protagonists are different. Now it is Vox that is leading the campaign for the political right, while Ciudadanos is desperately searching for a way to stop their advance (...)

[Zinneke]

Truly a bizarre party. Do they do any governing other than grandstanding about independence? Do Catalans care at this point?

They all converge (hey, what a coincidence) on one point though : for them Spanish institutions are rotten and a tabula rasa is the only solution. I think its difficult for people to understand this from the outside.

[FrancoAgo]

ERC 84,1%, CUP 81,8%, ECP 79,8%, PSC 65,5%, JxC 65,1%, C's 35,3%, PP 31,8%, Vox 21,9%

[Skye]

Hello friends. I've been a little busy with some stuff in real life. I just wanted to pop in for a moment to say I finally managed to do a project I've long wanted to: A Madrid precinct map. I know it has little to do with the current election (The Catalan regional election), but I thought you'd find it interesting.

Anyways, here are the precinct results for the November 2019 General Election in Madrid, presented by ideological blocs.

Blue: Right (PP+Cs+VOX), 52.2%
Red: Left (PSOE, UP, MP), 45.8%

Atlas colors, though I've painted the tied precincts in purple.


 
This is the small version, here's a link for the super big (11938 x 11208) version if you want to see it in more detail: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_cvlPwH2hKi79LyVHKlnqi2k0qunD9qN/view?usp=sharing

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

PSC 80,6%
ECP 68,7%
C's 67,9%
PP 66,7%
VOX 56,8%
ERC 55,2%
CUP 49,2%
JxC 49,2%

[Velasco]

GESOP/Andorra Market

PSC 22.6 (31/33)
ERC 20.6 (31/33)
Junts 20.6 (31/33)
VOX 7.1 (8/9)
ECP 7.0 (8/9)
CUP 6.7 (8/9)
Cs 6.5  (7/8)
PP 4.4 (4/5)
PDeCAT 1.1 (0)

https://sondeos.elperiodic.ad/primer-sondeo-elecciones-catalanas-14f.html

[Velasco]

Pro-independence parties signed a document committing themselves not to arrange coalition deals with the PSC, following the tradition of cordon sanitaire for socialdemocrats inaugurated in Spanish politics by the former Cs leader Albert Rivera. The document is promoted by a group of former ANC (Catalan National Assembly)members to the parties in a surprise move. The signatories are Junts (JxCAT), ERC, CUP, PDeCAT and the non-parliamentary Primàries, stating there won't be any agreement to form government with Salvador Illa regardless the correlation of forces resulting from the elections. The document says this election is "an opportunity to achieve the necessary strength that allows to enforce the Catalan Republic"

 This deal seems aimed at preventing that ERC feels tempted to make deals with the socialists and En Comú Podem. ERC and PSC candidates have been ruling out that possibility during the campaign; Salvador Illa says that he would like to form a government with ECP, while Pere Aragonès says his priority is reaching agreements with ECP and the CUP. Furthermore, ERC leader Oriol Junqueras  has stated that ERC and PSC are "antagonistic". The attacks against the socialists have increased as of late , possibly motivated by the threat posed by the rise of JxcAT in recent polling. ERC and JxCAT compete against each other, in order to determine which party will lead the next regional government

Yesterday it was the second anniversary of the famous picture with the three leaders f the Spanish Right at Colón square in Madrid. This picture, in addition to the ERC's sabotage to the budget draft agreed between PSOE and UP, triggered the April 2019 elections. Colón was the Vox's launching pad (Cape Canaveral). Currently the far right is on the rise (despite the recent humiliation in the non-confidence motion), while the PP struggles with serious problems (the ghost of structural corruption) and Cs is on the brink to disappear. Meanwhile Albert Rivera tweets from a limb after one of the most terrible political gaffes in the present democratic period

https://twitter.com/EnricJuliana/status/1359434562879827975

[Velasco]

GESOP/Andorra Market

PSC 23.0 (32/34)
ERC 20.8 (31/33)
Junts 18.8 (29/31)
Vox 7.5 (9/10)
ECP 6.9 (8/9)
Cs 6.7 (7/8)
CUP 6 4 (8/9)
PP 4.4 (4/5)
PDeCAT 3.0 (0/2)

Turnout 56/58

[Skye]

GESOP/Andorra Market

PSC 23.0 (32/34)
ERC 20.8 (31/33)
Junts 18.8 (29/31)
Vox 7.5 (9/10)
ECP 6.9 (8/9)
Cs 6.7 (7/8)
CUP 6 4 (8/9)
PP 4.4 (4/5)
PDeCAT 3.0 (0/2)

Turnout 56/58

Well VOX placing 4th would make this election a complete dumpster fire.

[Velasco]

Watching the live debate in La Sexta. All the candidates are speaking in Spanish. "Everybody against Illa"

The CUP candidate Dolors Sabater has been replaced by Laia Estrada (leading candidate for Tarragona). Estrada called "fascist" the Vox candidate ignacio Garriga

The PP candidate Alejandro Fernández is not bad in debates.  He and the ECP candidate Jessica Albiach were the best n the TV3 debate held two days ago, according to some media reports

I've been watching the debate for a while and find all candidates terrible except Albiach. Surprisingly I find the PP candidate is a decent folk, considering that I don't share his ideas. Right now Illa is saying "it's enough". Garriga warns about the Islamic invasion shortly afterwards. Poor Catalans...

[jaichind]

Looks like there are a lot of polls being de facto released after the legal ban on polls.  If so what is the point of this law ?