Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

I have always wondered whether different Spanish regionalist movements and non-Castilian regional identities have resentment towards each other.

One example of regional resentment, which I happen to know well because I live in Castille and Leon, is the vitriol that many Leonese have for the rest of Castille, and more specifically, Valladolid. The main reason is the fact that León has its own identity but not its own Autonomous Community, being lumped together with what used to be Castilla La Nueva in 1978. They complain that since then Valladolid has had a centralist attitude towards them.

"León sin Castilla es una maravilla" (Leon without Castille is a marvel), or "León capital, Pucela sucursal" (Leon capital, Pucela (Valladolid's nickname) subsidiary) are some of the phrases you might hear if you go to León. Also, be careful if you call a Leonese "Castillian", they may not react very well.

I've always wondered, why isn't León its own autonomous region?

I'm not sure, but probably the creation of the Castille and Leon region was motivated by economic reasons. I guess that it made more sense a new region encompassing the northern half of the Spanish inner plateau (Meseta Central), instead of maintaining the "historical regions" of Leon and the Old Castille (Castilla La Vieja). Actually the provinces of Logroño and Santander secceeded from Castilla La Vieja to become the autonomous communities of La Rioja and Cantabria, which makes sense from a geographical point of view as La Rioja is located in the Ebro valley and Cantabria on the northern coast. Valladolid is located in the middle of the northern plateau, so it's the main transport hub and the natural centre of the region. It's not strange that the rest of the region resents the Valladolid centralism, especially the parts that once were in the old Kingdom of Leon (which eventually merged with Castiille in 1230)

On the other hand, intra-regional rivalry is very common in Spain. In the Canary Islands (my region) there exists the historical antagonism between the two main islands containing the regional capitals: Tenerife (Santa Cruz) and Gran Canaria (Las Palmas). Las Palmas province was created as late as 1927, spltting from the old province that encompassed all the archipelago with capital in Tenerife. There have been advocates of creating two separate autonomous communities in the Canaries, actually

[Zinneke]

Gijon-Oviedo is another example.

[Velasco]

No surprises in the cabinet reshuffle triggered by the departure of Salvador Illa. Carolina Darias, who was serving as minister of Territorial Policy, has replaced Illa at the head of the Health Ministry. Darias is a rather unknown Canarian socialist with a vast experience in public administration. The new minister of Territorial Policy, in replacement of Darias, is the leader of the PSC Miquel Iceta. Both will have to work close to each other in the coordination of the response to the pandemic. The new Health minister will head a meeting to discuss coronavirus issues

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2021-01-28/spanish-health-ministry-wants-corrective-measures-against-vaccination-irregularities.html

The Spanish Health Ministry will ask regional governments to closely monitor the Covid-19 vaccine administration process, to avoid new cases of people getting immunized ahead of time thanks to their influence or contacts.

Spain is struggling to contain a surge in coronavirus cases that is stretching hospitals to the breaking point in several parts of the country. On Thursday afternoon, Portugal said it will close its border with Spain on Friday for at least two weeks in a bid to curb its own soaring caseload.

A draft ministry document first reported by the daily El Mundo and which EL PAÍS has seen asks regional authorities for “preventive and corrective measures” to guarantee that shots are administered according to the government’s list of priority groups. What these measures should be is not specified.

The first stage of the vaccination campaign seeks to immunize care home residents and employees, healthcare workers and people with need for daily assistance who are not living in care facilities. But in recent days there have been reports about hundreds of ineligible individuals who managed to get vaccinated ahead of time – including politicians, a bishop and an army general.

“This is not just about responsibility, it’s also about solidarity with the most vulnerable segment of the population and with those who are most exposed to the virus,” reads the document, to be presented at a meeting of central and regional health officials on Thursday afternoon.

The official campaign starts at midnight in Catalonia.

[Velasco]

A potential meme source: Catalonia’s new space program will begin with nanosatellite launch from Kazakhstan

https://english.elpais.com/science_tech/2021-01-28/catalonias-new-space-program-will-begin-with-nanosatellite-launch-from-kazakhstan.html

A date has been set for the launch of Catalonia’s first nanosatellite.

 On March 20, at 7.07am Spanish time, a rocket will lift off from Baikonur, in Kazakhstan, to release the first spacecraft built as part of the New Space strategy developed by the Catalan government, which is expected to pour €18 million into the program over the next four years.

This first launch will improve connectivity in the Spanish northeastern region, while a second nanosatellite due to go into space late this year or in early 2022 will provide images of the Earth and help fight climate change.

In late October the Catalan government announced plans to create its own space agency and develop a new sector that is expected to create 1,200 jobs. The tiny satellites, which are the size of a shoebox, weigh between one and 10 kilograms, and cost a fraction of conventional ones, are packed with technology and have become very popular since 2014.

But the decision to create a Catalan space program at a time of economic crisis has drawn criticism. At a news conference on Wednesday, the Catalan chief of digital policy, Jordi Puigneró, defended the initiative.

“Some people may wonder if, against the backdrop of the [coronavirus] pandemic, it is necessary for the [Catalan] government to spend its time launching nanosatellites,” he said. “The answer is yes: we have to do it because we need to transform the country’s economy. We are also told that this money would buy untold amounts of school lunch subsidies, but what we need to do is to create wealth so that we do not have to hand out so many.”

Maybe Puigneró has a point in what concerns the investment in technology to create wealth (neoliberals fail to understand that school lunch subsidies are a priority, though) but, on the other hand, one of the main criticisms to the Catalan government is that the focus on the sovereigntist process distracts from day-to-day management. The most important issue in times to come is how to invest the EU reconstruction funds, in order to create a base for the modernization of the economy. This is not at the heart of the discussions right now, neither in Barcelona nor in Madrid. Catalonia is still one of the wealthiest Spanish regions, bit it began to lose weight before the start of the sovereigntist process and it has been surpassed by Madrid. There exists a fear of decadence

[Velasco]

CEO

ERC 22.0% (35-37)
Junts 20.7% (32-34)
PSC 19.6% (26-29)
Cs 9.6% (12-13)
PP 7.0% (9)
ECP 6.5% (6-8)
CUP 6.2% ( 8 )
Vox 4.8% (5-6)
PDeCAT 2.3% ( - )

[Former President tack50]

As I always try to do, here is a list of all the election posters for the 2021 Catalan elections, as well as the various campaign slogans.

ERC: Al costat de la gent (Alongside the people)



Junts: Junts per fer, Junts per ser (Together to do, Together to be)



Cs: Para que ganemos TODOS (so that EVERYONE wins)

(Huge image that breaks the site, so it gets inside a spoiler tag)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

PSC: Fem-ho (Let's do it)

(huge image that breaks the site, gets inside spoiler tag)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

CUP: Per guanyar (To win)



En Comú Podem: El canvi que Catalunya mereix (The change that Catalonia deserves)



PP: Una Cataluña mejor (A better Catalonia)

(big image, spoiler tags)

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Not sure if the emoji appears in the actual campaign posters or not but it is hilarious

Vox: Recuperem Catalunya (Take back Catalonia)




Interesting things to note:

1) ERC has plenty of posters for the different ERC members of the regional cabinet and other high profile figures. I took the main poster (with candidate Pere Aragones)

2) Junts seems to have backed down on the Puigdemont mania, though there are still plenty of campaign materials with Puigdemont

3) PSC's election posters seem very bland and boring to me

4) For the first time ever, CUP does some personality based posters. Because of their non-hierarchical structure and strict term limits; CUP always went with posters without the main candidate in them

5) WTF was PP thinking with that emoji? By the way, their Twitter header is just as bad or even worse

6) Surprisingly, Vox has decided to use their slogan in Catalan, instead of Spanish.

[kaoras]

The new version of the Cs heart is really ugly. In the same note, I hate that the boring /♥️ is the new PSOE logo. Their traditional logo with the fist and the rose is so good, they should keep that. (I think even the red square alone is better)

[Velasco]

I don't have a great opinion of any of these campaign posters. Quite possibly the best, in terms of graphic design, is the Junts affiche ("Laura Presidenta")

Thanks for the pics, but I miss the PDeCAT poster with Angels Chacón

[Former President tack50]

I don't have a great opinion of any of these campaign posters. Quite possibly the best, in terms of graphic design, is the Junts affiche ("Laura Presidenta")

Thanks for the pics, but I miss the PDeCAT poster with Angels Chacón

Interestingly, I don't think the Junts one is all that good. My favourite (or more accurately, least bad) might be the Vox and ERC ones to me. Vox is perhaps a bit too repetitive given they always use that style for almost everything, but still looks good to me. ERC is the best and has a fairly imaginative design; though I think they should use a darker shade of yellow

Per requested, here is a PDeCat poster:

PDeCat: Si t'ho penses, PDeCat (if you are thinking about it, PDeCat)

[Velasco]

The Vox poster scares me. Loads of aggressiveness and testosterone. Abascal and Garriga look like two Salvini clones. Condottieri

The PP emoji is awful, definitely

[Skye]

The Vox poster scares me. Loads of aggressiveness and testosterone. Abascal and Garriga look like two Salvini clones. Condottieri

The PP emoji is awful, definitely

That PP emoji is extremely cursed.

[Velasco]

The Vox poster scares me. Loads of aggressiveness and testosterone. Abascal and Garriga look like two Salvini clones. Condottieri

The PP emoji is awful, definitely

That PP emoji is extremely cursed.

Indeed. The funny thing is that the Alejandro Fernández emoji is real and, according to the suspicious 'vozpopuli', some people within the PP is complaining because it's... yellow. Mind that yellow is the color of the Catalan separatists. Maybe Vox will use the emoji against the PP. Hilarious

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

The Vox poster scares me. Loads of aggressiveness and testosterone. Abascal and Garriga look like two Salvini clones. Condottieri

The PP emoji is awful, definitely

That PP emoji is extremely cursed.

Indeed. The funny thing is that the Alejandro Fernández emoji is real and, according to the suspicious 'vozpopuli', some people within the PP is complaining because it's... yellow. Mind that yellow is the color of the Catalan separatists. Maybe Vox will use the emoji against the PP. Hilarious

I concur with kaoras on the socialist logo. I think I would have preserved the rose

Yep, Fernández's emoji thing is real indeed, I'll post some proof mainly because it so ...uh... 🙄

https://mobile.twitter.com/PPCatalunya/status/1354931253032722432

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I just can't

The PP emoji, in terms of electoral campaign moments, is Dukakis-tank-photo-op tier of bad, I suppose.

Este #14F vota cualquier partido excepto el PP por una Cataluña sin emojis atroces

[Velasco]

Interesringly the CEO poll released today shows that independence is the preferred solution to the territorial conflict for 33.5% of Catalans, the lowest percentage since the beginning of the sovereigntist process (the peak was 48.5% in November 2013).  The federal solution gets 26.5% ad the status quo (autonomous community) gets 26%. The reason, according to Ignacio Molina (Elcano Institute), is that ERC voters are becoming more pragmatic. Junts voters go in the opposite direction and turn to be increasingly rupturist. The conclusion is that separatism as a phenomenon is drifting rightwards

Independence as preferred option among nationalist voters:

1T 2014
CiU/JxC: 74'7%
ERC: 88'3%

1T 2015
CiU/JxC: 72'3%
ERC: 88'2%

1T 2018
CiU/JxC: 79'2%
ERC: 70'8%

1T 2020
CiU/JxC: 84'3%
ERC: 60'3%

#CEO d'avui (Jan. 2021)
CiU/JxC: 90'3%
ERC: 51'5%  

https://twitter.com/_ignaciomolina/status/1355195352891219973?s=19

[Velasco]

The emoji of the PP candidate Alejandro Fernández is impressive, but I need to mention the glorious Cs campaign: Vota Abrazo ("Vote Hug"). The posters showed different persons hugging themselves ("it would be so nice we could hug to each other"), but sadly they have been removed from the streets. Apparently the brilliant publicists hired by Cs stole the images appearing in the posters from Shutterstock, an image bank that bans the use of stuff for political purposes. Loads of memes

https://twitter.com/the_raven77/status/1355125051243319301?s=20  

I remember the Cs campaign posters in 2017 were excellent, the best alongside JxCAT. What a decadence, let's hug ourselves

On a separate note I heard in the Piedras de  Papel Twitch channel (Lluís Orriols et alii) that Junts voters are apparently the most motivated, or the least demobilized. Someone said that JxCAT is like Real Madrid, the team that wins matches in the last minute. I wouldn't underestimate the chances of victory of Puigdemont troupe. Personally I think a Junts upset victory would be terrific, both for Catalonia and the governabilbity of Spain. Additionally candidate Laura Borràs is promising to implement the "October 1 mandate" and make the Spanish state disappear from Catalonia. In my opinion Junts is going full populist

[Former President tack50]

Not sure if Velasco already mentioned it, but courts have ruled that the election will be on the 14th of February, for sure now.

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/elecciones-catalunya/20210129/fiscalia-tsjc-fecha-elecciones-catalanas-11484508

[Velasco]

Interesting analysis in La Vanguardia about the evolution of the ideological self-placement of Catalan nationalists

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20210131/6209640/independentismo-izquierda.html

Currently only 1/5 of Catalans identify themselves as centre-right or right-wing, the remaining 4/5 identify as centre-left or left-wing. Decades ago CiU represented a good share of the electorate which identified as ascentre-right and Catalanist. Nowadays there are virtually no Catalan nationalists placing in that side of the ideological spectrum. In the 1990s more than a half of CiU voters identitied as centre-right, amounting some 800k (in addition to 400k PP voters to their right); curently nearly all the JxCAT constituency (amounting 900k) identify as centre-left, nearly on par with the PSC. Nowadays an overwhelming majority of the voters identifying as centre-right and right-wing are supporters of the Spanish right (Cs, PP and Vox)

The question is whether that turn to the Left of the Catalan nationalism is real. The ideological evolution of the CiU/JxCAT supporters could be the result of a genuine perception, as well as a consequence of generational replacement. However, there exists the possibility of a false perception induced by the association of conservative ideology and Spanish nationalism, which is the narrative promoted by the Catalan independence movement. Evidence of the latter is that, when asked about ideological issues such as taxation or the role of the State, many of these alleged leftists answer like centrists or rightists. The sovereigntist process might have provoked a metamorphosis in the ideological identity of the Catalans (particularly those placed in the post-CDC space), creating a strange and unrecognizable landscape (like in Kafka)

Personally I deem Junts a post-modern party

[Velasco]

New GESOP poll. The PSC is still leading, but the competition between ERC and Junts for the leadership of the pro-independence camp tightens the contest. Undecided amount 31.6% (52.2% contrary to independence and 29.6% pro independence)

PSC 24.0% (34-35 seats)
ERC 19.8% (31-32)
Junts 19.1% (30-31)
Cs 9.0% (11-12)
PP 6.3% (8-9)
ECP 6.3% (6-7)
CUP 5.3% (6-7)
VOX 5.2% (5-6)
PDeCAT 1.1% (0)

Possible coalitions /majority: 68 seats)
PSC+ERC+ECP 71-72 seats (PSC+ERC 65-67)*
ERC+Junts+CUP 67-70 seats (ERC+Junts 61-63)**

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/elecciones-catalunya/20210131/encuesta-elecciones-cataluna-2021-indecisos-suben-11488422

Personally I prefer this scenario, but think the CEO projected result is more plausible (discounting a possible nationalist bias)

* ERC and PSC candidates have ruled out the possibility of a coalition. Some analysts say that a clear victory of either party could open the door to a minority left-wing government led by one of the two and tolerated by the other (more likely in case ERC was the winner, I think). ECP is openly advocating a left.wing tripartite coalition with ERC and PSC, deemed by Pere Aragonès (ERC) as a "Frankenstein coalition" in a recent debate (Aragonès stole that expression to the deceased PSOE leader Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba)

** The relationship between ERC and Junts is increasingly strained, but most analysts still deem a coalition between the two nationalist rivals as the most likely post-election outcome. However, in case ERC and Junts are lacking a majority, getting the outside support of the CUP is bot going to be easy. The rupturist rhetoric of Junts (Laura Borràs says now that "implementing the October 1 mandate" would be just another symbolic gesture) promises the perpetuation of political stalemate. In case Junts is the winner, this trend aggravates with likely repercussions in national politics. A Junts victory over ERC would imply an amendment of the ERC's strategy of relative moderation in search of broadening the pro-independence base. The willingness of ERC to reach agreements with the PSOE-UP government in the Spanish parliament would be affected

[Velasco]

Sigma Dos / NC Report polls

PSC 22.5% (29-32) / 19.6% (29)
ERC 21 2% (31-32) / 21.2 % (32)
JUNTS 20.7% (30-32) / 19.6% (32)
CS 10 3% (12-14) / 10.8% (13)
ECP 7.3% (7-8) / 6.9%  ( 8 )
PP 5.6% (6-7) / 6.7% ( 8 )
CUP 5.3% (5-7) / 5.8% (7)
VOX 5.1% (6-7) / 5.6% (6)

Last night there was a debate with the 9 main candidates  (all parliamentary forces plus Vox) broadcasted by TVE for all Spain. The candidates of ERC, Junts, CUP, PDeCAT and sometimes ECP refused to speak in Spanish, so TVE resorted to simultaneous translation. The workers of the public broadcaster complained because the language diversity of Spain was not taken into account and the chosen moderator was not a member of the TVE staff in Catalonia  I didn't watch it, but press reports say PSC candidate Salvador Illa was the target of most attacks, followed by the ERC candidate Pere Aragonès. The latter proposed Illa a face-to-face debate to discuss Catalan independenc and the socialist candidate apparently accepted, but it's not likely he will find room in the agenda.

In the news, Barcelona mayor Ada Colau says that PSC and ERC must allow that one of the two governs. Singer/songwriter and former JxSi candidate for Girona Lluís Llach endorses the CUP because "it defends public healthcare"

[Velasco]

The Eix Transversal ("transversal axis") will be a battleground for the duel between ERC and Junts (JxCAT), the struggle for hegemony within the Catalan pro-independence camp. This "transversal axis" connects the provincial capitals of Lleida and Girona bypassing the Barcelona metroplitan region (see map below), forming the main road of the rere-país ("back country"). The article in El Periódico linked below analyzes the 2019 General Election results (April and November) in the regional centres along that important corridor, focusing on ERC and JxCAT

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/elecciones-catalunya/20210203/batalla-eix-transversal-erc-junts-elecciones-cataluna-2021-11495688



The Eix Transversal crosses 9 comarcas (counties) ñocated in 3 provinces (Barcelona, Girona and Lleida). ERC came first in the two general elections that took place in 2019. However ERC lost votes between April and November, while JxCAT got more votes in November despite turnout decreased by 8%.

Results in the Eix Transversdal comarcas

April 2019: ERC 183,038 votes / JCAT 122,020 votes

November 2019: ERC 148,942 / JxCAT 123,890

In November JxCAT surpassed ERC in the comarcas and regional centres located north in this corridor: Gironès (Girona) and Osona (Vic)

Possible reasons:

The ERC's leading candidate in the April 2019 elections was Oriol Junqueras, while the ledading candidate in November 2019 was Gabriel Rufián. Junqueras is the party leader and was the deputy premier during the events of September and October 2017. In October 2019 the ERC leader was sentenced to 13 years in prison and disqualified, so he couldn't be candidate in the November 2019 electins. Junqueras has more appeal among the nationst voters of inland Catalonia, while Gabriel Rufián is a candidate with more appeal in Metropoloitan Barcelona (Rufián has Andalusian origins and his command of Catalan is not perfect). The wave of indignation after the rule of the Supreme Court favored the more intransigent JxCAT over ERC  in November; additionally the CUP decided to contest disputing the left-wing natinalist vote.

You can see the graphs with the ERC and JxCAT general election results in the article, so I'll post the 2017 regional election results

Lleida (provincial capital)

JxCAT 23.05%
 ERC 22.82%
 (leading party Cs 24.54%)

Mollerussa

JxCAT 39.17%
ERC 22.86%

Tàrrega

JxCAT 37.87%
ERC 26.41%

Cervera

JxCAT 36.37%
ERC 24.9%

Manresa (main town in Central catalonia, located in Barcelona province)

JxCAT 33.13%
ERC 23.93%

Vic (nationalist stronghold in Osona, Barcelona province)

JxCAT 44.39%
ERC 23.76%

Girona (provincial capital)

JxCAT 36.85%
ERC 18.65% (third party behind Cs)

As you can see JxcAT achieved a clear lead in all the main towns of the corridor, with the exception of Lleida (three-cornered contest with Cs and ERC). JxCAT got an advantage of only 12k over ERC in the overall result, because the hegemony of the Puigdemont party in these inland comarcas was compensated by stronger ERC performances in Metropolitan Barcelona and the southernmost comarcas of Tarragona province

[Velasco]

Leading party by municipality in 2017

[Velasco]

PP's structural corruption: former treasurer Luis Bárcenas sents a letter to prosecutor promising to cooperate with new revelations

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2021-02-04/ex-treasurers-revelations-rattle-spains-popular-party-ahead-of-illegal-funding-trial.html

New revelations from the former treasurer of Spain’s Popular Party (PP), Luis Bárcenas, who is serving a 29-year sentence over a sweeping graft case known as Gürtel, could affect the outcome of a new trial probing an illegal funding system run by the conservative group (...)

Now, with less than a week to go before the start of a trial over the PP’s alleged illegal funding – in which Bárcenas is the main accused party and faces a five-year sentence – the former treasurer has sent prosecutors a letter expressing his “desire to cooperate with the justice system.” José María Aznar and Mariano Rajoy, two former prime ministers who served at the time when the PP was allegedly running this parallel accounting system, will appear in court as witnesses.

In the letter, to which EL PAÍS has had access, Bárcenas suggests that several public contracts may have been awarded to companies in exchange for corporate donations under Aznar, who was in office between 1996 and 2004.

Judge Santiago Pedraz of Spain’s High Court, the Audiencia Nacional, is investigating 23 contracts worth a combined €600 million awarded by five ministries under the Aznar administration between 2000 and 2004. Many contracts went to a building company named Constructora Hispánica, whose owner, Alfonso García Pozuelo, was a major party donor who made nine contributions in different years (...)


In his written confession to corruption prosecutors, Bárcenas also says that in 2009 he showed documents proving the PP’s illegal financing to then-prime minister Mariano Rajoy, and that the latter put the papers in a shredder, unaware that Bárcenas had made copies, “many of which were stolen from my wife’s studio when it was broken into.” According to Bárcenas, Rajoy was “perfectly aware” of the existence of this parallel accounting system.
  

It has surfaced that far-right journalist Federico Jiménez Losantos was in the PP's payroll to spread conspiracy theories on the authorship of the Madrid bombings (March 11, 2004). Ironically the Bárcenas revelations might favor Vox, the party that Losantos currently supports

In other news, a new performative poll conducted by the Tezanos institute puts Salvador Illa's PSC ahead in the Catalan contest. Meanwhile ERC and Junts are falling out because Laura Borràs said that Oriol Junqueras was in prison for corruption charges. Borràs is being investigated by the Supreme Court  for alleged prevarication, fraud and emblezzement . The ERC secretary general Marta Rovira, who lives in Geneva since March 2018, demanded Borràs an apology

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It has surfaced that far-right journalist Federico Jiménez Losantos was in the PP's payroll to spread conspiracy theories on the authorship of the Madrid bombings (March 11, 2004). Ironically the Bárcenas revelations might favor Vox, the party that Losantos currently supports

In other news, a new performative poll conducted by the Tezanos institute puts Salvador Illa's PSC ahead in the Catalan contest. Meanwhile ERC and Junts are falling out because Laura Borràs said that Oriol Junqueras was in prison for corruption charges. Borràs is being investigated by the Supreme Court  for alleged prevarication, fraud and emblezzement . The ERC secretary general Marta Rovira, who lives in Geneva since March 2018, demanded Borràs an apology

Likelihood that either of these news has any significant impact at the polls?

[Velasco]

Likelihood that either of these news has any significant impact at the polls?

The revelations of former treasurer Luis  Bárcenas might affect the PP and favor Vox in Catalonia. Both parties are polling low nombers and have obviously no chances of winning, but they have a particilar contest. If Vox gets more votes than the PP, that will have some repercussions in the contest for the leadership of the Spanish Right.  The PP has a huge problem, because its corruption is structural and the party has been irregularly funded since its very foundation.

The electoral impact of the squabble between ERC and Junts will be negligible, if there's any. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras is jailed because of his role in the events of September and October 2017. He is not a corrupt, despite one of the charges against him was emblezzement (distracting funds for the illegal referendum). In any case, Junqueras is one of the martyrs of the sovereigntist process. Currently he and the other jailed politicians are under a third grade regime (until Supreme Court says otherwise) , so they can go out and participate in rallies and campaign acts. On the other hand, Junts candidate Laura Borràs is under investigation for alleged irregularities in contract awards during her tenure as director of the Catalan Letters Institute. But the allegations were known before she was selected candidate and there is not going to be s court rule before elections take place. Junts is not polling that bad and has chances of winning, so...