Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195035 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #2000 on: January 11, 2021, 10:24:05 AM »
« edited: January 11, 2021, 11:06:00 AM by Velasco »

Support for the Catalan independence decreases slowly, according to the GAD3 poll for La Vanguardia

-What would you vote in a referendum on independence (previous poll percentage in brackets)?

Yes 42.6 (45.2)
No 48.9 (46.7)
Don't know/ don't answer 8.5 (8.1)

Gender gap in the support for independence: men +4, women -16
Support for independence is stronger among the youngsters and decreases with age. Unemployed and people with lower income are more contrary to independence. Unilateral seccession is overwhelmingly rejected rejected, including nationalist voters

- Should pardon be granted for the jailed politicians?

Yes 60.6
No 32.6

A majority of the PSC and ECP voters support pardon, while a majority of Cs, PP and Vox voters rejects it. Pardon is one of the preferred ways to deescalate the conflict

- Do you think the round table between (Spanish and Catalan) governments will be useful to solve the conflict?

Yes 48.9
No 46.2

-- Which way would you prefer to solve the conflict in case of a bilateral negotiation?

Improvement of the financing system 27.5
Referendum on independence 26.8
Reform of the Spanish Constitution 24.0
New Catalan Statute 10.8
Don't know / don't answer 10.9

- Which is the best solution to deescalate the conflict?

Pardon to the jailed politicians  27.8
Amnesty 25.6
Do nothing: jailed politicians must serve their full sentences 21.6
Reform of the charge of sedition 15.1
Don't know / don't answer 9.9

The Spanish government is apparently favourable to grant pardon to the jailed politicians, which is rejected by the rightwing opposition parties. Catalan nationalist parties demand amnesty

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20210111/6179204/apoyo-independencia-sondeo-encuesta-gad-3.html





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Skye
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« Reply #2001 on: January 11, 2021, 10:40:42 AM »

Support for the Catalan independence decreases slowly, according to the GAD3 poll for La Vanguardia

-What would you vote in a referendum on independence (previous poll percentage in brackets)?

Yes 42.6 (45.2)
No 48.9 (46.7)
Don't know/ don't answer 8.5 (8.1)

Gender gap in the support for independence: men +4, women -16
Support for independence is stronger among the youngsters and decreases with age. Unemployed and people with lower income are more contrary to independence. Unilateral seccession is overwhelmingly rejected rejected, including nationalist voters

A shame we don't have crosstabs. I'd like to see support levels among voters of each party, especially since the poll has the Nationalists at 50% for the election.
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Mike88
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« Reply #2002 on: January 13, 2021, 11:19:49 AM »

The Catalan regional elections could be postponed until May:


Quote
The Catalan Government is willing to postpone the elections to the Parliament of Catalonia, scheduled for February 14, given the advance of the coronavirus pandemic, according to TVE.
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« Reply #2003 on: January 13, 2021, 11:53:54 AM »

The Catalan regional elections could be postponed until May:


Quote
The Catalan Government is willing to postpone the elections to the Parliament of Catalonia, scheduled for February 14, given the advance of the coronavirus pandemic, according to TVE.

Yeah, it looks like Catalan elections are going to be postponed to the second half of May due to the mounting third wave of coronavirus. All parties have expressed doubt at the prospect of keeping the February 14 date, given the status of the pandemic; the only exception being the socialists, who of course stand to lose the most in a delayed election scenario (they are the ones with all the momentum right now). In any case, the decision won’t be taken until Friday.

In other news, a couple of significant rifts have occurred within the coalition government. The first one is over skyrocketing electricity prices (which have doubled in the past few days) due to the cold wave the country is currently experiencing. UP is calling for increased regulation and even partial nationalization of the energy sector, while the PSOE’s line is to maintain the status quo, arguing that the spike is a momentary occurrence caused by the historically low temperatures and has nothing to do with the way the electricity supply system is structured. UP is also pointing out that the government program agreed between both parties called for reform of the energy market.

The other one is over former King Juan Carlos. The PSOE sided with the right and effectively blocked a parliamentary investigative commission proposed by UP into the alleged use of so-called “black cards” by the former monarch, in spite of advice by the Congress’s legal counsel that stated that such an investigation would be legal. The junior partners in the coalition sharply criticized the socialists for this decision, especially Minister of Defense Margarita Robles, who has been the most outspoken defender of the monarchy within the PSOE.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2004 on: January 13, 2021, 12:21:08 PM »
« Edited: January 13, 2021, 01:19:27 PM by Velasco »

PSC PSC secretary general Miquel Iceta said that Salvador Illa would continue as Health minister, in case elections are postponed.  Bye to the 'Illa momentum' 😪
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #2005 on: January 13, 2021, 01:03:17 PM »

Well, here's hoping for 'Illa momentum 2.0' in May or something. Grin But likely it won't happen. Damn, it's sad to see elections postponed because of the pandemic.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2006 on: January 13, 2021, 01:22:56 PM »

Well, here's hoping for 'Illa momentum 2.0' in May or something. Grin But likely it won't happen.

Don't give up the hope
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Skye
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« Reply #2007 on: January 13, 2021, 01:38:39 PM »

So I know that the Autonomous Communities are the most responsible for the response to the pandemic, but I can't help but to think how bad it could look for Illa to go from the Ministry of Health to the campaign trail supposedly to capitalize on his popularity and then have the election postponed due to how bad the COVID situation is.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2008 on: January 14, 2021, 09:20:23 PM »
« Edited: January 15, 2021, 03:54:32 AM by Velasco »

Central and regional governments clash on the election delay. Justice minister Juan Carlos Campo said the delay is not covered in law and is "serious for democracy", stressing that Catalonia needs a government. The PSC has been trying that elections take place as planned, arguing that only a strict lockdown would justify elections are postponed (as it happened in April past year with Basque and Galician elections postponed to July) and offering logistic support from central government. However, all the parties from Cs to the CUP support the delay, so the socialists are now proposing that elections take place in March instead of late May.

The spokeswoman of the Catalan government Meritxell Budó said that they have the competences to postpone elections. Also she reminded back in September 2020 an independent commission of jurists, taking into account the precedents of Basque Country and Galicia, said the Catalan government could postpone for health emergency reasons. The precedents are clear, but there a couple of key differences: a) there is not a strict lockdown, and b) after the disqualification of Quim Torra later that year no premier has been elected to replace him and Pere Aragonès is only interim premier. In other words, the elections were called because the term to elect a new premier expired (JxCAT and ERC agreed things were in that way, instead of voting a candidate from Torra). So apparently there are elements for a legal quagmire.  In any case, the Catalan government will make a decision on Friday and remarks that decision needs to be consensual.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2009 on: January 15, 2021, 06:47:45 AM »

Didn't the Basque and Galician elections get delayed by a lot anyways? I fail to see what is the big issue here, especially not juridically like the Spanish government / PSOE is claiming

Just do the same that was done in the Basque Country and Galicia.
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Mike88
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« Reply #2010 on: January 15, 2021, 07:39:15 AM »

It seems that the PSC is proposing postponing the election to 14 or 21 March. A decision will be made during the day, it seems.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2011 on: January 15, 2021, 08:06:04 AM »
« Edited: January 15, 2021, 02:26:01 PM by Velasco »

Didn't the Basque and Galician elections get delayed by a lot anyways? I fail to see what is the big issue here, especially not juridically like the Spanish government / PSOE is claiming

Just do the same that was done in the Basque Country and Galicia.

The big issue is that elections were called automatically because, when Quim Torra was disqualified from office, the Parliament of Catalonia failed to elect a new premier within the legal timeframe. The reason is that JxCAT and ERC agreed they were not going to present a candidate and just wait until the term expired. The situation of the pandemic was not good by late 2020 and they should have known better. If you ask my opinion, I'll tell you that holding elections in February is not a good idea. But it's so obvious the ERC folks changed their minds when the last polls were not so favourable... It's undeniable the 'Illa effect' has played a major role and the presidential elections are going on under similar circumstances in Portugal,  so the socialists (not all the government, as the UP allies have bad electoral prospects) have their reasons to raise objections. The situation now is not exactly the same of Galicia and the Basque Country, as Catalonia has an interim government and there is no consensus between all the parties
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Velasco
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« Reply #2012 on: January 15, 2021, 08:31:47 AM »
« Edited: January 15, 2021, 09:23:43 AM by Velasco »

Elections in Catalonia will be postponed to May 30. The Catalan government will sign the decree in a meeting today at 17:00 CET.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2013 on: January 19, 2021, 06:58:52 AM »

The High Court of Catalonia orders the precautionary suspension of the regional government decree postponing elections to May 30. The previous decree calling elections on February 14 remains in force until the judiciary rules

Meanwhile Pablo Iglesias raised controversy comparing the self-imposed exile of Carles Puigdemont to the Spanish republican exilees after 1939. Go and dig your own hole,  comrade Iglesias
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #2014 on: January 19, 2021, 07:06:45 AM »

The High Court of Catalonia orders the precautionary suspension of the regional government decree postponing elections to May 30. The previous decree calling elections on February 14 remains in force until the judiciary rules

Meanwhile Pablo Iglesias raised controversy comparing the self-imposed exile of Carles Puigdemont to the Spanish republican exilees after 1939. Go and dig your own hole,  comrade Iglesias

So... what happens to the Catalonian elections? February 14 is pretty close.

Oof Iglesias.
We all know who is the one true great Pablo Iglesias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pablo_Iglesias_Posse
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Velasco
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« Reply #2015 on: January 19, 2021, 07:20:54 AM »

The High Court of Catalonia orders the precautionary suspension of the regional government decree postponing elections to May 30. The previous decree calling elections on February 14 remains in force until the judiciary rules

So... what happens to the Catalonian elections? February 14 is pretty close.

Nobody knows

I read the other day that Catalonia is the westernmost region of Italy. It's a metaphor, of course.

Welcome to the conundrum
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #2016 on: January 19, 2021, 07:25:14 AM »

The High Court of Catalonia orders the precautionary suspension of the regional government decree postponing elections to May 30. The previous decree calling elections on February 14 remains in force until the judiciary rules

So... what happens to the Catalonian elections? February 14 is pretty close.

Nobody knows

I read the other day that Catalonia is the westernmost Italian region. It's a metaphor, of course.

Lmao

Nah, beating the slowness of our judiciary is basically impossible.
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Velasco
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« Reply #2017 on: January 19, 2021, 07:40:55 AM »
« Edited: January 19, 2021, 07:44:13 AM by Velasco »

Our judiciary is usually very slow,  but the decision on the election date is urgent and I guess we'll have a rule pretty soon

The 2017 elections were called by the Spanish government, after the unilateral seccession attempt and the suspension of Catalan autonomy.

The date of the 2021 will be determined by the judges

Regardless of whether you support the cause or not  it's undeniable that one of the (undesired) consequences of the sovereigntist process is the weakening of Catalan institutions. Isn't it amazing?

In what concerns comrade Iglesias,  he is desperately attempting to differentiate from the PSOE. Huge blunder
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Velasco
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« Reply #2018 on: January 19, 2021, 09:03:17 AM »
« Edited: January 19, 2021, 09:07:21 AM by Velasco »

There is something related to the decree that I should clarify. From what I heard last night to some journalists in a radio podcast, (I havem't read the text), the decree suspends the elections scheduled on February. I mean, unlike I posted before, it does not postpone the election to May 30. That date would be merely an indication and there exists the possibility that elections could be postponed even further and take place by autumn. This is highly irregular from a legal standpoint, as the decision goes beyond the attributions of an interim government. As I said before, elections were called automatically when the legal timeframe to elect a regional president (premier) un replacement of Joaquim Torra expired. Mr Torra was disqualified from office by the judiciary and the coalition partners weren't unable to designate a new candidate due to their big differences (besides, they need the cooperation of the CUP). JxCAT and ERC agreed that deputy premier Pere Aragonés (ERC, Torra is from JxCAT) would act as interim premier with limited powers until elections were called automatically at the end of the timeframe, putting an end to the legislative term.

Despite all parties knew it was irregular, most of them agreed to postpone elections. It was fairly predictable that the High Court could suspend the new decree in case of some organization or particular was appealing. Certainly there exists a health emergency caused by the pandemic, but the decision was also motivated by electoral calculus.  ERC panicked at the 'Illa effect' and its slight decline in the polls, adding to the cause the fears and electoral interests of JxCAT, CUP, PP, Cs and ECP. This absurd situation is also due to lack of foresight. The Portuguese have found ways to go ahead with elections, but Spain is just too complicated and Catalonia is the most complex and surrealistic place of all in our blessed country
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Velasco
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« Reply #2019 on: January 21, 2021, 07:29:54 AM »

Fantastic CIS poll. Maybe there is a PSC bias, but the 'Illa effect' is apparently real. At this point I think the PSC coming first is feasible, but I think the estimation for Junts (too low) and ECP (too high) is not creídible. Anyway everything is up in the air until the judges speak

PSC 23.9%  30-35 seats
ERC 20.6% 32-34
Junts 12.5% 20-27
ECP 9.7% 9-12
Cs 9.6% 13-15
Vox 6.6% 6-10
CUP 6.0% 8-11
PP 5.8% 7

The rule of the High Court is expected for tomorrow.  Election date will be either February 14 or (perhaps) May 30


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Skye
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« Reply #2020 on: January 21, 2021, 07:40:39 AM »

Our friend Tezanos has a new CIS poll for the Catalan election and well...



I think it'd be alright to call this an outlier. Not just because of the PSC number, the most eye popping number is for Junts, who only have 12.5% of the vote, well below what they've gotten in other polls.

Link to the poll: http://datos.cis.es/pdf/3306_Estimacion.pdf

Also BREAKING NEWS while I was typing this: The TSJC will keep February 14 as the date for the election, but the decision isn't final. They have until Feb. 8 to announce a definitive date.

EDIT: Well Velasco beat me to it.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #2021 on: January 21, 2021, 07:49:34 AM »

Junts and their previous incarnations recently seem to be underpolled for some reason. Maybe too many respondents in BCN-metro area.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #2022 on: January 21, 2021, 07:56:58 AM »

World elections according to CIS, 2021

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Velasco
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« Reply #2023 on: January 21, 2021, 08:17:22 AM »
« Edited: January 21, 2021, 08:23:13 AM by Velasco »

OMG. This is Catalan conundrum amazingly surreal

Junts and their previous incarnations recently seem to be underpolled for some reason. Maybe too many respondents in BCN-metro area.

Sure. The CIS is obviously an outlier. I think Junts will be much closer to the 20% mark and will win around 30 seats... unless the PDeCAT gets more support than expected. The PDeCAT owns the electoral rights of the previous JxCAT incarnation, including free ads in TV. Artur Mas campaigning for the CDC heirs might boost the PDeCAT a little, but he is very reluctant and unwilling to clash with Carles Puigdemont.  On a separate mote,  Pablo Iglesias is doing no favors to Ada Colau granting Puigdemont the title of "republican refugee". Junts represents the opposite things Colau stands for, despite the seemingly populist and post-ideological turn of the new Junts (I don't believe Junts actually "progressive", despite some ERC and PSC splinters have joined the Puigdemont's big tent)
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #2024 on: January 21, 2021, 08:57:13 AM »


Its (almost) like that Jeb! map, but for real Wink
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