Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

The issue with regional elections in Catalonia (specially since 2012) is that they haven't been fought on the ideological axis. Rather they have been contests focused on the sovereigntist process, between supporters and opponents of the Catalan independence. The 2017 election in particular came after the events in autumn 2017 (unilateral attempt of seccession) that led to the temporary suspension of the regional autónomy. Unlike the general elections, the most obvious bloc division for me is pro-independence (JxCAT, ERC, CUP) vs constitutionalist* (Cs, PSC, PP). Caralunya en Comu-Podem would be un no-man's land on this axis, as they represent a "third way" .

I could do a map of "Unionists" v. "Separatists" using the blocs you outlined. I just don't know about excluding CatComu-Podem.

Most Spanish news media tends to exclude CatComu, and treats them as their own thing, just too weak to win anywhere. I think that is the most accurate way to place them too

Maybe you can try and make clear the "plurality secessionist/unionist" vs "majority secessionist/unionist" areas

[Velasco]

Interesting article in Foreign Policy about the letters certain retired officers sent to King Felipe against the "social-communist" government. It covers important political events in Spain's recent history,  so if you read it you'll get some context.

"Retired officers nostalgic for the Franco dictatorship are denouncing the country’s elected government. King Felipe should condemn these anti-democratic forces just as his father
did in 1981".

https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/01/04/spain-military-espana-ejercito-franco-juan-carlos-king-felipe-sanchez-generals-no-time-for-democracy/

For all but the most reactionary elements of Spain’s political class and military, these letters constitute an unpleasant reminder of the past. In July 1936, an armed rebellion led by Gen. Francisco Franco was launched against the Popular Front government, a leftist coalition of Socialists and communists that had won the general election in February that year. After three years of brutal civil war, Franco’s forces triumphed over the Republicans in 1939, replacing the elected government with a military dictatorship that lasted for the next four decades.

Ominously, the vision hinted at in the letters recently sent to the royal household and the open statement—of the military and monarchy standing united against Spain’s imperfect yet democratically elected government—sounds similar to that which inspired Franco’s rebellion 84 years ago.  

  Spain's unity andintegrity has not been damaged or threatened by cross-party compromise, but rather by the military's intervention in its politics

[Velasco]

After the recruitment of Lorena Roldan, the woman who was going to be the Cs candidate, the PP hires BCN councilor Eva Parera. This is relevant because Ms Parera is the right hand of Manuel Valls in the Barcelona City Hall. Eva Parera was previously in UDC (Unio, the CiU minor partner) and was senator from 2011 to 2014. Maniel Valls hired Eva Parera to run as an independent for Barcelona pel Canvi, the list led by the former French PM and supported by Cs in the 2019 local elections. So the backgrounds of Lorena Roldan and Eva Parera are different. Parera represents a certain conservative catalanism contrary to the sovereigntist process, while Roldan claims that she joins the PP because "Cs have lost its essence". In any case, there is a tough competition for the orange spoils going on. Parera will be placed third in the Barcelona list,  behind PP candidate Alejandro Fernandez and Lorena Roldan

Labour minister Yolanda Diaz (UP) suggested yesterday, in a polite tone and with mild manners, that Salvador Illa should resign as Health minister. The PSC candidate stated he will remain until the official campaign starts, but Ms Diaz says "we are in campaign already"

[Velasco]

Try to spot a small precinct in Sant Marti district that is light blue in the first map and dark blue in the second. It's an old housing block for national police agents.  The block is a PP bastion in Barcelona and I think it was the only precinct where the party came first in April 2019

[Skye]

Try to spot a small precinct in Sant Marti district that is light blue in the first map and dark blue in the second. It's an old housing block for national police agents.  The block is a PP bastion in Barcelona and I think it was the only precinct where the party came first in April 2019

I read about this during the election! Something along the lines of "No matter what happens, the PP will always win that precinct". Not sure if it was here or somewhere else.

[Velasco]

We only have the Sociometrica polls for El Español to measure the impact of Salvador Illa as PSC candidate. Not my favourite pollster, but anyway I'll post the vote estimation (swing with regard the previous poll in brackets)

ERC 20.1 (-1.6)
JUNTS 19.9 (-0.4)
PSC 19 3 (+2.6)
Cs 12.0 (-1.2)
CatComu-Podem 7.0 (-0.7)
VOX 6.3 (+0.2)
PP 6 1 (-0.2)
CUP 5 2 (+0.3)
PDeCAT N/A (1.6*)

To be honest, I don't buy this estimation. But interestingly there is a table with a vote transfer matrix

Cs transfers: Cs 32.3, Junts 1.8, PSC 28.0, PP 6.9, Vox 19.9, PDeCAT 0.3, PNC 1.2, Others/Undecided 9.6

https://www.elespanol.com/espana/20210106/salvador-illa-acerca-socialistas-cataluna-elegido-candidato/548946221_0.html

I get the impression that Cs will perform in single digits and Vox is a wild card. On the other hand, the PSC candidate will suffer heavy attacks. In what concerns the tough competition in the pro-independence bloc, Junts has chances of beating ERC and winning the contest. All these things providing the elections are not postponed by the pandemic

[Oryxslayer]

Try to spot a small precinct in Sant Marti district that is light blue in the first map and dark blue in the second. It's an old housing block for national police agents.  The block is a PP bastion in Barcelona and I think it was the only precinct where the party came first in April 2019

I read about this during the election! Something along the lines of "No matter what happens, the PP will always win that precinct". Not sure if it was here or somewhere else.

I wonder if VOX will win that precinct in the future...

[Velasco]

ere the party came first in April 2019
I wonder if VOX will win that precinct in the future...

I made a search in the interactive map, out of curiosity. VOX performed strongly, but the PP took a big lead in the November 2019 general elections. The precinct is in the Sant Martí de Provençals neighbourhood, surrounded by PSC and ERC precincts like the gaul village in the Asterix stories

Barcelona: section 10-108

PP  249 (31.8%)
PSC-PSOE 127 (16.2%)
ECP 105 (13.4%)
VOX 98 (11.5%)
ERC 76 (9.7%)
Cs 56 (7.2%)
(...)

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-resultados-elecciones-generales-calle_1_1257177.html

 Precinct resullts in the December 2017 regional elections. Turnout was 11% higher with regard the last general elections

Cs 393 (43.5%)
ERC 104 (11.5%)
JxCAT 42 (4.7%)
PSC 121 (13.4%)
CatComu-Podem 63 (7.0%)
CUP 18 (2.0%)
PP 150 (16.6%)
PACMA 9 (1.0%)
Zero Cuts 2 (0.2%)
Blank 1 (0.1%)
Total Valid Votes 903
Turnout 905 (85.1%)

I made the calculation myself with the data linked by Skye. Wno knows where are going to be all those orange votes. Some of them are not going to show up...     

[Skye]

So this little poll caught my eye. It’s a general election poll of Asturias, a usually left-leaning province, done by SyM:

https://twitter.com/electograph/status/1347489194243973122?s=21

It shows the right leading the left by a 51-44 margin. I guess it shouldn’t be *too* surprising since the left (especially UP) isn’t polling that well on national polls, but still.

For comparison, Asturias voted 51.5-45.8 for the left during the Nov. 2019 General election.

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, that poll is impressive and very bad for PSOE/UP and especially good for Vox. Worth noting Asturias is the last "culturally Castillian" region that still votes to the left of Spain at large. I wonder if the Asturian domino will fall in 2023 or whenever, much like the Andalusian one fell in 2019.

For what is worth national polling shows a slightly better picture for the left though. In the popular vote it is down by roughly 46-40; however, that only translates to 169 seats or so for the right, compared to 137 for the left. Here is a recent Sociométrica poll for example:



That is very bad for the left, but still short of what would be needed for a conservative working majority. This isn't 1996 anymore so for the Spanish right it is "176 or bust". Parties like Junts, PNV or even CC and TEx are probably not going to support the right.

As of now, opinion polling would make it a near certainty that Spain would see a repeat election. The right would lack a majority and a left wing government would need to involve Junts; and I can't see the Puigdemont cult even abstaining, let alone voting yes.

Of course, that assumes that polls are 100% accurate, which they won't be. A right wing majority under current polling would probably have something like a 40% chance of happening; even a small polling error in its favour would do it; while a polling error in favour of the left wouldn't exactly mean an easy Sanchez victory.

[Velasco]

I don't know that pollster and hope the Asturias poll is an outlier, because Vox polling that high draws a nightmarish picture. Sociométrica leans a bit to the right, but anyway polling average suggests a wear of the government. Stii, there's not an alternative rightwing majority. The government needs to stay at least a couple of years, in the hope that economy rebounds after the end of the pandemic

Preferred Catalan premier, according to GESOP. Being the preferred premier or having the highest approval rate does not imply the candidate's party is the favourite to win the elections, but it may help to boost chances. I guess El Periódico will release the vote estimation tomorrow

[kaoras]

That poll from Asturias is from SyM, honestly all of you should know better than to pay attention to that

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

I wouldn't worry too much about the SyM Consulting survey, it's a pretty trashy pollster. In November 2019 they were the only ones who predicted an outright PP-Vox-C's majority (with C's holding 35-40 seats).

About the GESOP poll, El Periódico polls usually are a bit too rosy for the PSC, but I do buy that Salvador Illa is the preferred candidate by a large margin. Name recognition is probably a significant factor though, since the other candidates are relative newcomers to the political scene and he has received enormous amounts of media attention due to the pandemic.

[Velasco]

I wouldn't worry too much about the SyM Consulting survey, it's a pretty trashy pollster. In November 2019 they were the only ones who predicted an outright PP-Vox-C's majority (with C's holding 35-40 seats).

About the GESOP poll, El Periódico polls usually are a bit too rosy for the PSC, but I do buy that Salvador Illa is the preferred candidate by a large margin. Name recognition is probably a significant factor though, since the other candidates are relative newcomers to the political scene and he has received enormous amounts of media attention due to the pandemic.

To be honest, I didn't realize it was SyM consulting. Low credibility indeed

You are right about the GESOP polls for El Periódico; they tend to be rosy for the socialists. The funny thing is that I believe GESOP is also working for the CEO, the Catalan counterpart of the CIS. There are other pollsters that work for various commissioners,  such as GAD3 (Narciso Michavila). I always wonder if the  estimations are influenced by the leanings of the commissioners. In any case GESOP and GAD3 are more reliable than that SyM.

Trying to predict a result right now is too hazardous, but I think a thtree-cornered contest between ERC, Junts and PSC is plausible. Also, I suspect that Junts has been quite successful in undermining Pere Aragonès and I am afraid the Puigdemont party has many chances of surpassing ERC. The latter will get more nervous as the election date gets closer. Junts coming first and leading the Catalan government would be an upsetting outcome for those seeking a deescalation of the Catalan conflict. On the other hand, some people claim that Salvador Illa has been placed there to seek a new tripartite alliance with ERC and ECP. I'm highly sceptical about the possibility of a leftwing coalition, but it's not entirely impossible. A new edition of the Tripartite that governed between 2003 and 2010 would be assailed from every side,  both from the pro-independence camp (Junts and CUP) and the Spanish Right  (PP, Vox and Cs)

[Skye]

I wouldn't worry too much about the SyM Consulting survey, it's a pretty trashy pollster. In November 2019 they were the only ones who predicted an outright PP-Vox-C's majority (with C's holding 35-40 seats).

About the GESOP poll, El Periódico polls usually are a bit too rosy for the PSC, but I do buy that Salvador Illa is the preferred candidate by a large margin. Name recognition is probably a significant factor though, since the other candidates are relative newcomers to the political scene and he has received enormous amounts of media attention due to the pandemic.

To be honest, I didn't realize it was SyM consulting. Low credibility indeed

You are right about the GESOP polls for El Periódico; they tend to be rosy for the socialists. The funny thing is that I believe GESOP is also working for the CEO, the Catalan counterpart of the CIS. There are other pollsters that work for various commissioners,  such as GAD3 (Narciso Michavila). I always wonder if the  estimations are influenced by the leanings of the commissioners. In any case GESOP and GAD3 are more reliable than that SyM.

Trying to predict a result right now is too hazardous, but I think a thtree-cornered contest between ERC, Junts and PSC is plausible. Also, I suspect that Junts has been quite successful in undermining Pere Aragonès and I am afraid the Puigdemont party has many chances of surpassing ERC. The latter will get more nervous as the election date gets closer. Junts coming first and leading the Catalan government would be an upsetting outcome for those seeking a deescalation of the Catalan conflict. On the other hand, some people claim that Salvador Illa has been placed there to seek a new tripartite alliance with ERC and ECP. I'm highly sceptical about the possibility of a leftwing coalition, but it's not entirely impossible. A new edition of the Tripartite that governed between 2003 and 2010 would be assailed from every side,  both from the pro-independence camp (Junts and CUP) and the Spanish Right  (PP, Vox and Cs)

Oh I didn't know the pollster was trash. Disregard, then.

But speaking of GESOP polls that are rosy for the socialists, here's the latest from them for the Catalonia elections:

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1347607685953433602
Sadly, no popular vote numbers, but still, I don't think I've seen any polls that had the PSC winning the most seats, at least during the past few weeks.

EDIT: Ok we got the popular vote numbers now:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1347613603646631943

[Velasco]

But speaking of GESOP polls that are rosy for the socialists, here's the latest from them for the Catalonia elections:

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1347607685953433602
Sadly, no popular vote numbers, but still, I don't think I've seen any polls that had the PSC winning the most seats, at least during the past few weeks.

EDIT: Ok we got the popular vote numbers now:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1347613603646631943

I'm totally sure this is the first poll where the PSC takes the lead

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Catalan_regional_election#Opinion_polls

Personally I think it'd be amazing that Salvador Illa comes ahead in the next Catalan elections, because he's a nice person and quite possibly I'd be voting for his party if I was eligible. But maybe this poll is a bit rosy and January is going to be tough. No doubt his candidacy is having an impact and adding interest to the election, let's see how long it lasts the 'Illa effect'

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20210108/encuesta-elecciones-cataluna-2021-11442083

[Mike88]

With this result, what kind of majority is possible? A PSC-ERC-Comun coalition like the graphic says or something different? It seems the only solution.

[Velasco]

With this result, what kind of majority is possible? A PSC-ERC-Comun coalition like the graphic says or something different? It seems the only solution.

ERC+Junts propped up by the CUP would have the numbers

[Mike88]

With this result, what kind of majority is possible? A PSC-ERC-Comun coalition like the graphic says or something different? It seems the only solution.

ERC+Junts propped up by the CUP would have the numbers

Aren't ERC and Junts at odds with each other? My impression was that the relation between both parties is very bad now.

[Velasco]

With this result, what kind of majority is possible? A PSC-ERC-Comun coalition like the graphic says or something different? It seems the only solution.

ERC+Junts propped up by the CUP would have the numbers

Aren't ERC and Junts at odds with each other? My impression was that the relation between both parties is very bad now.

The Puigdemont crew and ERC have been at odds for years, but they have been sharing government for the sake of nationalist unity. The candidacy of Salvador Illa is aimed at boosting the PSC chances and breaking the current bloc dynamics.  With Miquel Iceta a leftwing tripartite was impossible because the ERC folks hate him. There is a little chance with Illa, but I remain a bit sceptical.

[Former President tack50]

As someone who'd definitely support PSC in Catalonia, that poll is 100% wishful thinking

GESOP / El Periódico polls do indeed tend to be very rosy for the socialists. Back in 2017 they predicted PSC would only narrowly trail Cs for instance. El Periódico, while a decent newspaper in some aspects, is extremely biased towards PSC-PSOE and that translates to its polls*

^{*: Worth noting that a newspaper's editorial bias does not always translate to its polls. La Razón and ABC are both quite right wing, PP supporting newspapers for instance. But while La Razón's pollster (NC Report) tends to be rather rosy for PP, ABC's pollster (GAD3) tends to be the most accurate in Spain. Or for a left wing example, La Sexta is a TV station with a heavy left wing bias, but its polls (Invymark) are reasonably fair and accurate.}

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Skye's Barcelona maps are very informative and neat, thank you!

Anyway, I have never followed the Catalan crisis in any particular detail (although from what I know it looks just... ahem, completely insane), but I'm certainly interested in these next elections.

^{*: Worth noting that a newspaper's editorial bias does not always translate to its polls. La Razón and ABC are both quite right wing, PP supporting newspapers for instance. But while La Razón's pollster (NC Report) tends to be rather rosy for PP, ABC's pollster (GAD3) tends to be the most accurate in Spain. Or for a left wing example, La Sexta is a TV station with a heavy left wing bias, but its polls (Invymark) are reasonably fair and accurate.}

Not surprising, it's like Fox News polls which are generally pretty fair and accurate, whereas we all know the bias of Fox News as a TV station.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

Yeah that PSC result is extremely unlikely, way too rosy. I’ll believe the socialists have actually surged ahead when other pollsters confirm it. If the pattern set by the Galician and Basque regional elections held, we should expect mediocre results for the PSC and disastrous results for ECP, along with a rise of the nationalist left, ERC in Catalonia’s case, at the expense of both (more ECP than the socialists).

However, Catalonia differs from Galicia and the Basque Country in that C’s has a very strong presence, meaning that the PSC has a large batch of centrist unionist voters to make inroads into. ECP doesn’t have any obvious place to gain new voters, so my guess is that they’ll do even worse than polls are currently predicting, bleeding voters in three directions: towards ERC and, to a lesser extent, CUP (voters in favor of independence who voted ECP because they thought they could be a force in favor of holding a referendum agreed with Madrid, now disenchanted due to the lack of progress in that area even with UP in government), PSC (left-wing voters who like the current national government and gravitate towards the senior partner) and towards abstention (disillusioned voters in general).

About Illa, I’m not convinced by him. Looking at the circumstances, it’s clear why he was chosen, plus the initial reaction to his candidacy has been quite positive. What concerns me is his lack of charisma and lack of experience heading an electoral list, he could flounder in the campaign. That would add to the PSC’s tendency of doing worse than expected on election day (they only bucked the trend in 2015, probably due to the fact that they hit rock bottom that time and couldn’t get any lower).

My prediction is another nationalist coalition (led by ERC, my gut tells me the Puigdemont effect won’t be as strong as it used to be, especially since he isn’t the candidate this time) and another four years of hopeless deadlock in the Catalan situation.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

GAD3 poll for La Vanguardia:

Turnout: 64% (-18% compared with 2017)

ERC: 24,1% (-3,2), 37-39 seats
PSC: 20,5% (+1,4), 30-31 seats
Junts: 18,5% (-1,4), 31 seats
C’s: 9,7% (-0,5), 13 seats
PP: 6,2% (-0,2), 8 seats
ECP: 6,0% (-0,7), 6-7 seats
CUP: 4,3% (+0,4), 4-5 seats
Vox: 4,0% (-0,2), 4 seats
PDECAT: 2,9% (+2,9), 0-1 seats

Comparisons with last GAD3 poll, conducted in September.
The nationalists would have a majority without relying on CUP, while ERC-PSC-ECP would also have a comfortable majority.

[Velasco]

The GAD3 poll looks plausible, but I am afraid the result will be tighter in the pro-independence bloc (ERC down a bit and Junts up). The PSC might well get 20% or 21% of the vote, which is a decent result compared to all the precedent elections since 2010. With ERC, Junts and the PSC in the low 20s it'd be a three-cornered contest for the first place. Cs is heading to a single digit performance and the result may be even worse. Modest gains for the PP, which main concern is coming ahead of the Vox's wildcard (both PP and Vox have a low ceiling in Catalonia, but Vox coming ahead of the PP would jeopardize the Pablo Casado's strategy towards the far-right). ECP is set to lose ground, mainly to the PSC (and to a minor extent to ERC or CUP). The PDeCAT would need the explicit support from Artur Mas in the struggle to survive. In case turnout is in the low 60s, we can take for granted the pro-independence parties will get more than 50% of the vote...

However, Catalonia differs from Galicia and the Basque Country in that C’s has a very strong presence, meaning that the PSC has a large batch of centrist unionist voters to make inroads into. ECP doesn’t have any obvious place to gain new voters, so my guess is that they’ll do even worse than polls are currently predicting, bleeding voters in three directions: towards ERC and, to a lesser extent, CUP (voters in favor of independence who voted ECP because they thought they could be a force in favor of holding a referendum agreed with Madrid, now disenchanted due to the lack of progress in that area even with UP in government), PSC (left-wing voters who like the current national government and gravitate towards the senior partner) and towards abstention (disillusioned voters in general).

Some pro-independence voters gave a tactical vote for ECP in past general elections, but in the last Catalan elections the 'comuns' were pretty much reduced to the bone due to polarization. ECP won the 2015 and 2016 general elections in Catalonia and still got a decent result in 2019, but regional elections are a different issue and nationalists are always going to get better results. I don't think that ECP is going to lose support because voters are disappointed on the referendum (realistically they know Podemos alone can't do anything in that regard), but being in no man's land and lacking a clear discourse obviously hurt. Personally I have met a few individuals from Barcelona and surroundings whom switch between ECP and ERC, without being necessarily hardcore separatists (there is a grey area between 'unionists' and 'separatists', people who is sovereigntist and support a referendum). Another problem is that voters in Catalonia have a lot of leftwing parties to choose, from the far-left separatist CUP to the centre-left constitutionalist/federalist PSC. ECP might well get 5% or 6% of the vote, which is a pretty dismal result. Performing below 5% would be simply catastrophic.

About Illa, I’m not convinced by him. Looking at the circumstances, it’s clear why he was chosen, plus the initial reaction to his candidacy has been quite positive. What concerns me is his lack of charisma and lack of experience heading an electoral list, he could flounder in the campaign. That would add to the PSC’s tendency of doing worse than expected on election day (they only bucked the trend in 2015, probably due to the fact that they hit rock bottom that time and couldn’t get any lower).
 

Socialists needed to shake things a bit and Salvador Illa is the best card they have. I'm not initially in favour that Mr Illa continues as Health minister, but I understand why he won't resign until the end of January. Among other things, elections could be delayed and there's a vaccination campaign going on. The main asset of Salvador Illa is his politeness and good disposition. Luckily for him, the other candidates (Pere Aragonès, Laura Borràs, Carlos Carrizosa) are not particularly charismatic. He is obviously less galvanizing than Inés Arrimadas, but he has the advantage of being much less confrontational and divisive. The problem is that many voters don't perceive there's a threat like in 2017, so they are not going to show up. Otherwise the GESOP poll would be more realistic