Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

Juan Carlos should be prosecuted. But Felipe is innocent and he shouldn't paid for his father's crimes.

I heard some people stating the same opinion, including members of my family. The issue is that, even if Felipe is not personally responsible (I have no reasons to think he is guilty, but he had knowledge of his father's behaviour before it surfaced), he represents a dynasty and an hereditary institution. I'm not saying he should pay for his father, but I think there exists an institutional responsibility and he should take more resolute actions for the sake of the continuity of constitutional monarchy. For instance, Felipe could take the initiative in the reform of the institution he embodies. Rightwing parties could not oppose a constitutioonal amendment if the king is supporting reforms

Apparently the popularity of King Felipe and the support for monarchy are higher now than months before, even though the approval rate of Juan Carlos is abysmal. My impression is that there are issues much more pressing than monarchy vs republic in the reyes of public opinion.  However, ir would be a mistake thinking that secrecy and legal onviolability can continue. Also, the monarchy continues being divisive across ideological and territorial* lines and the Spanish Right is doing no favors to the king

*Felipe is very unpopular in Catalonia and this is a huge problem for him

[Former President tack50]

Juan Carlos should be prosecuted. But Felipe is innocent and he shouldn't paid for his father's crimes.

I heard some people stating this the same opinion, including members of my family. The issue is that, even if Felipe is not personally responsible (I have no reasons to think he is guilty, but he had knowledge of his father's behaviour before it surfaced), he represents a dynasty and an hereditary institution. I'm not saying he should pay for his father, but I think there exists an institutional responsibility and he should take more resolute actions for the sake of the continuity of constitutional monarchy. For instance, Felipe could take the initiative in the reform of the institution he embodies. Rightwing parties could not oppose a constitutioonal amendment if the king is supporting reforms

Apparently the popularity of King Felipe and the support for monarchy are higher now than months before, even though the approval rate of Juan Carlos is abysmal. My impression is that there are issues much more pressing than monarchy vs republic in the reyes of public opinion.  However, ir would be a mistake thinking that secrecy and legal onviolability can continue. Also, the monarchy continues being divisive across ideological and territorial* lines and the Spanish Right is doing no favors to the king

*Felipe is very unpopular in Catalonia and this is a huge problem for him

To be fair, given its origins and all the events that have happened in Spain since circa 2007; any king is going to be deeply unpopular in Catalonia/Basque Country as well as among many parts of the Spanish left (99% of UP and at least 50% of PSOE)

The king (much like the 1978 consensus) isn't going to have the sky high approval ratings it used to have in the 90s and 00s.

[Velasco]

[
To be fair, given its origins and all the events that have happened in Spain since circa 2007; any king is going to be deeply unpopular in Catalonia/Basque Country as well as among many parts of the Spanish left (99% of UP and at least 50% of PSOE)

The king (much like the 1978 consensus) isn't going to have the sky high approval ratings it used to have in the 90s and 00s.

Felipe needs to struggle to be seen as the king of all Spaniards, regardless his approval rates among UP and ERC voters. He also needs to improve his image in Catalonia and Basque Country. Granted, he's not going to be loved by leftwing republicans in the periphery nor amass nearly universal consensus as in the past. But he has to try harder anyway and avoid the reactionary bear hug. Felipe is already being perceived as "the king of the right" and this is potentially very dangerous for the continuity of constitutional monarchy, as well as the deep wound of Catalonia

[Velasco]

I'm sceptical about the willingness of king Felipe, but Pedro Sánchez said he leaves the door open to a new law that modernizes the monarchy. Obviously the king has no legislative power, but Sánchez will never do anything without the consent of the monarch. Little signs from there ATM, regardless what the PM ssys

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-12-29/spains-pm-opens-the-door-to-a-new-law-covering-the-crown-in-a-bid-to-further-modernize-the-monarchy.html

Speaking during a press conference on Tuesday, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez offered a summary of his government’s achievements over the past year, citing a report prepared by the seat of power, La Moncloa, and backed by a group of a dozen or so experts that concludes that of 1,238 commitments, 23.4% have been achieved and a further 90% are underway.

During the Socialist Party (PSOE) leader’s lengthy appearance today, he stated that the government – a coalition with junior partner Unidas Podemos – is working on a project to continue the modernization of the Spanish monarchy that has been put in motion by King Felipe VI. Questioned by reporters, Sánchez also left open the possibility of a new law that would cover the Crown, although he did not go into more detail. “We are going step by step,” the prime minister said, describing the king’s Christmas Eve speech this year as “brave.” There was much expectation ahead of the traditional televised appearance by the monarch on December 24 given the allegations of financial impropriety that have been mounting this year against his father, emeritus king Juan Carlos I.

The prime minister opened the door to new developments regarding the monarchy in the coming months, but also stopped short of giving more details ahead of La Zarzuela royal household confirming what steps would be taken.

“The king wants a constitutional monarchy that is adapted to 21st-century Spain,” Sánchez said on Tuesday. “Renewal, accountability… that’s where Felipe VI is working. We are going step by step. And you will be getting more information about how this road map for the renewal of the crown in terms of transparency and leading by example as it materializes,” he added

Sanchez said the coalition government will last, despite the "different voices "

Sensible issue: Brussels urges Spain to reform pensions and jobs in return for EU funds. "We are not in 2012: we are not asking for fiscal adjustments that could have negative short-term effects, nor are we imposing a solution. But Spain must specify measures" according to some anonymous source

https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-12-08/brussels-urges-spain-to-reform-pensions-and-jobs-in-return-for-eu-funds.html

The European Commission wants Spain to address its unresolved structural problems on three fronts – pensions, jobs and market unity – and it is demanding to see a credible and coherent plan setting out Madrid’s reform agenda as part of the deal to release a recently approved package of European stimulus aid.

Reform” is a loaded word, because in recent years it has been used as a euphemism to avoid the term “cuts,” and because it is associated with the austerity imposed during the 2008 financial crisis by the so-called Troika made up of the European Commission, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Brussels has since changed its approach: instead of seeking to impose reforms, it is asking countries to approve structural changes in exchange for a flood of money included in Next Generation EU, a European recovery fund aimed at addressing the fallout of the coronavirus crisis that will allocate €750 million in total, half of it in grants. Spain has secured €140 billion of that amount, making it one of the biggest beneficiaries.
 

Jailed Catalan separatists’ prospects of early release grow dim

https://english.elpais.com/politics/catalonia_independence/2020-12-24/jailed-catalan-separatists-prospects-of-early-release-grow-dim.html

(...) A government pardon would be the quickest path to freedom, but it is also the most complicated. Although the decision lies exclusively with the central executive, it requires a report by the Supreme Court that will not be ready before the end of the year, and possibly not by February 14 either, the expected date for regional elections in Catalonia.

The four prosecutors who took part in the 2019 trial feel there is “no acceptable legal reason” for granting clemency to the jailed separatists, and they have suggested that such a move would be tied to “political agreements.” Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez was voted back into the prime minister’s office following the November 2019 election partly thanks to the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), whose leader Oriol Junqueras is one of the jailed separatists. More recently, this party also provided much-needed support for the government’s budget plan (...)

Unlike other issues such as monarchy, raise of mínimum wage or reform of pensions, apparently PSOE and UP agree on this delicate question for the sake of reconciliation. However, ir seems very unlikely (virtually impossible) a government pardon before Catalan elections  on Valentine's Day next year. A pardon will raise a fierce opposition from the right and elements of the judiciary (see the assesment of the prosecutors)

[Velasco]

Breaking: Health minister Salvador Illa will be the PSC leading candidate in the upcpming Cstalan elections, replacing the veteran secretary general Miquel Iceta. This move has been apparently planned months ago, although socialists always dismissed rumours. The main reasons to place Illa are his current popularity and the relationship with ERC. Salvador Illa has become unexpectedly a popular figure after the outbreak of the Covid-19 with approval rates hIgher than those of Miquel Iceta. Also, the relationship between Salvador Illa and Oriol Junqueras or the ERC leadership is more fluid. One of the main roles of Salvador Illa was actually participating in the round table with the Catalan government, a task well suited for a quite and discreet peacemaker. Before the pandemic Health was regarded a light ministry, given the high degree of decentralization with nearly all competences devolved to the regions. This changed dramatically since March, when  Illa took the centrilized command of the Health Emergency under the first state of alarm. On the other hand, the relationship between Miquel Iceta and Oriol Junqueras is tense and the enmiity of ERC towards him led the party to vero his election as senator by the Psrliament of Catalonia, frustrating the intent of Pedro Sanchez to make his loyal friend Speaker of the Upper House.

Salvador Illa remains as Heath minister for a while, but he will be eventually replaced. Incumbent Territorial Policy minister Carolina Darias would be the favourite to take the Health portfolio  while Miquel Iceta could enter the government in replacement of Darias

[Lumine]

Lorena Roldan has also defected from C's to PP, yet another blow to Arrimadas. The way things are going, I wonder if C's will even be able to contest the next general election.

[Skye]

Breaking: Health minister Salvador Illa will be the PSC leading candidate in the upcpming Cstalan elections, replacing the veteran secretary general Miquel Iceta. This move has been apparently planned months ago, although socialists always dismissed rumours. The main reasons to place Illa are his current popularity and the relationship with ERC. Salvador Illa has become unexpectedly a popular figure after the outbreak of the Covid-19 with approval rates hIgher than those of Miquel Iceta. Also, the relationship between Salvador Illa and Oriol Junqueras or the ERC leadership is more fluid. One of the main roles of Salvador Illa was actually participating in the round table with the Catalan government, a task well suited for a quite and discreet peacemaker. Before the pandemic Health was regarded a light ministry, given the high degree of decentralization with nearly all competences devolved to the regions. This changed dramatically since March, when  Illa took the centrilized command of the Health Emergency under the first state of alarm. On the other hand, the relationship between Miquel Iceta and Oriol Junqueras is tense and the enmiity of ERC towards him led the party to vero his election as senator by the Psrliament of Catalonia, frustrating the intent of Pedro Sanchez to make his loyal friend Speaker of the Upper House.

Salvador Illa remains as Heath minister for a while, but he will be eventually replaced. Incumbent Territorial Policy minister Carolina Darias would be the favourite to take the Health portfolio  while Miquel Iceta could enter the government in replacement of Darias

This honestly surprised me, and I'm not sure if it's because I'm not paying too much attention to politics atm, or if it was a real surprise.

[Velasco]

.
This honestly surprised me, and I'm not sure if it's because I'm not paying too much attention to politics atm, or if it was a real surprise.

I've been hearing or reading that Salvador Illa could be the candidate for months, so it's not very surprising for me. However, we are in a very delicate moment with the start of the vaccination campaign and a third covid wave at the gates.  Right now Illa is not excercising a centralized command but coordinating the regional administrations. But his task is very important and delicate, as well as not compatible with his candidacy. He should be replaced by Carolina Darias as soon as possible (Darias has been sttending coordination meetings and seems the natural replacement). Said this Salvador Illa looks like a good candidate atm and some analysts say he could catch votes in the centre from Cs. Miquel Iceta is toasted because he had to deal with the defence of the implementation of article 155 (suspension of regional autonomy in autumn 2017) and some nationalists will never forgive him. If the socialists are looking for distension in the Catalan conflict and maybe coalition deals with ERC (very unlikely right now), Illa could be better. From what I've heard, Illa is a very adaptable individual who has adopted firm stances against nationalists at times, but he is open to dialog and listens to contraries. People in the opposition criticize his management of the pandemic, while admitting he is very polite and well-mannered (despite he suffered harsh atracks in parliament). Illa is by no means a charismatic polítician, though

Lorena Roldan has also defected from C's to PP, yet another blow to Arrimadas. The way things are going, I wonder if C's will even be able to contest the next general election.

Cold revenge.  Lorena Roldan was elected in a primary election and replaced somewhat arbitrarily by Arrimadas, in order to place the more combative Carlos Carrizosa and save what they can. Roldan stepped aside and didn't say a word until now. She will be placed second in the PP list for Barcelona. This move resembles the defection of Angel Garrido  (briefly Madrid premier after Cristina Cifuentes) from PP to Cs when he was relegated in favour of Isabel Diaz Ayuso. Now Garrido is a member of the Ayuso government

Arrimadas has been performing a complicate dance (openness to deal with PSOE, while maintaining the coalition governments with the PP) and facing criticism in her party because of this. I'm not her fan nor like some of her methods, but appreciate the efforts to re-position Cs on the centre. It doesn't look good for Cs right now and who knows ,the plans of Rivera'for the near future. Rumours of next moves in Andalusia or Madrid. Risk of disintegration if there's a massive collapse in Catalonia

[Former President tack50]

To be honest given how he has been the face of the Covid response, I think Illa is a bad candidate. Under normal circumstances the Healthcare ministry would be a good pick, but not during a pandemic. And Spain is not exactly a country that can be proud of its response to Covid, we are literally on par with Donald Trump's US in terms of being bad at handling Covid in terms of numbers.

I guess opinions like this must not be too common given PSC has replaced Iceta with Illa, but still Iceta seems like the better pick to me.

The best pick may have been to just pick a random PSC backbencher; or better yet some high-profile mayor from one of the suburbs of Barcelona.

[Velasco]

To be honest given how he has been the face of the Covid response, I think Illa is a bad candidate. Under normal circumstances the Healthcare ministry would be a good pick, but not during a pandemic. And Spain is not exactly a country that can be proud of its response to Covid, we are literally on par with Donald Trump's US in terms of being bad at handling Covid in terms of numbers.

I guess opinions like this must not be too common given PSC has replaced Iceta with Illa, but still Iceta seems like the better pick to me.

The best pick may have been to just pick a random PSC backbencher; or better yet some high-profile mayor from one of the suburbs of Barcelona.

Socialists think that Salvador Ila is a good candidate because he has the second highest approval rate among the cabinet members (behind Econony minister Nadia Calviño), as well as among the Catalan politicians (behind Oriol Junqueras). I think many people appreciate his patience and good manners in the climate of permanent confrontation that prevails in Spanish politics. Certainly Spain has been hit hard by the pandemic. The question is whether people blame the Health minister and in what degree. As you know, Healthcare is devolved to the regions and the role of the central government is very límited. During the first state of alarm Salvador Illa took exceptionally the centralized command and that implied bearing the political costs. Since May illa has played a role of coordination, while the initiative was handed to the regional governments. The response to the Covid has not been uniform across Spain, not even among the regions governed by the same party (either PP or PSOE). I think that people realize and is able to see when certain regional leaders use the pandemic as a weapon, but in the end judgements are often conditioned by ideology. For instance Quim Torra was constantly attacking the central government while the handling of the pandemic by the regional governmentwas chaotic and raised protests, until the appointment of a professional to coordinate the response helped to stabilize the situation in Catalonia. Iceta is also a good candidate, but he has been in the complicated Catalan arena for some time and that implies a cost. Salvador Illa may be a revulsive that boosts somewhat the PSC chances somewhat, but I don't think socialists are going to win under him. Polls suggest that the non-nationalist voters are demobilized and many of the Cs voters in Dec. 2017 are not going to show up. However, given his visibility, traits and name recognition, Illa is better than a low profile candidate or the mayor of Hospitalet

[Skye]

So since the Catalan Regional election is in little more than a month I wanted to do a fun little project: The results of the 2017 Election by precinct in the city of Barcelona.

Naturally, I failed miserably, since OFC the Ajuntament de Barcelona doesn't have the results available in a format that I could work with.

They did, for some reason, have the precinct results of the Nov. 2019 General Election in a format that was relatively easy to work with, so I decided to give it a go. I was an extremely tedious process but I was able to produce this:



So this is a map that has 3 different blocs: The Spanish Right (blue), which is composed of PP, VOX, and Cs, the Spanish Left (red), composed of the PSC and ECP, and the Catalan Nationalists (Yellow), composed of ERC, JxCat, and CUP.

I know this isn't an "ideal" way to separate the blocs. For starters, as I understand, CUP and JxCat don't exactly see eye to eye, to put it mildly. Also, ECP which isn't exactly aligned with any group on the Catalan Independence issue. There's also Más País, which got 1.6% of the vote in the city and is missing in the "Left" bloc. The Ajuntament groups the party with other minor parties into the "Other" vote category, and as such, I wasn't able to include the party with the PSOE and ECP, which would've maybe won them a few more precincts, but alas.

I felt like this was a good place to start, since PP+C's+VOX and PSOE+UP are usually grouped together in the national level, and the pro-Independence parties are kind of their own thing. Plus, eldiario.es already has a precinct map which groups PP+C's+VOX+JxCat for the overall right wing % and the rest of the parties for the overall left wing %, if you wanted a map of that.

So overall in the city, we have:

Nationalists: 40.3%
Left: 35.6% (37.2% if MP is included)
Right: 20.5%

I'd appreciate feedback if you think this is (or isn't) an acceptable way of placing the Blocs.

[Mike88]

Very nice map Skye! Congrats!. The colours are fine by me. Grácia and Eixample are really bastions of the pro-Independence. Les Cots and Sarrià are the most affluent areas of the city, right?

[Skye]

Very nice map Skye! Congrats!. The colours are fine by me. Grácia and Eixample are really bastions of the pro-Independence. Les Cots and Sarrià are the most affluent areas of the city, right?

Thank you. Yes, parts of Les Corts and Sarria are among the most affluent in the city. The PP (by itself) easily won a few precincts there.

Though the precincts around the Passeig de Gracia in the Eixample district are very affluent as well, but the right doesn't nearly have the same strength there. That said, all of the precincts there were won by JxCat instead of the more left wing ERC, so there's that.

[Mike88]

Very nice map Skye! Congrats!. The colours are fine by me. Grácia and Eixample are really bastions of the pro-Independence. Les Cots and Sara are the most affluent areas of the city, right?

Thank you. Yes, parts of Les Corts and Sarria are among the most affluent in the city. The PP (by itself) easily won a few precincts there.

Though the precincts around the Passeig de Gracia in the Eixample district are very affluent as well, but the right doesn't nearly have the same strength there. That said, all of the precincts there were won by JxCat instead of the more left wing ERC, so there's that.

Yeah, the only thing uniting ERC and Junts is independence, in the rest they are miles apart: one is a leftwing party and the other a center-right one, heir of the late CiU.

[Velasco]

.
I'd appreciate feedback if you think this is (or isn't) an acceptable way of placing the Blocs.

I made a map of the April 2019 elections with the same blocs, so obviously their composition is acceptable for me

Regarding the left and the so-called 'constiturionalist' bloc.

 -En Comu Podem (or Catalunya en Comu-Podem) is obviously leftwing and it's part of the coalition government (Manuel Castells, minister of Universities, was proposed by Ada Colau). Catalunya en Comu is an independent organization aliied to Podemos. Clearly CatComu is alligned with the Spanish left, although ERC seeks to attract the Colau party to the pro-independence bloc. CatComu and its voter base are neither nationalist nor pro-independence (80% of the voters oppose independence, according to some polls). Howeve it supports a referendum and the right to self-determination ("derecho a decidir"), as well as overcoming the "state of the autonomies" and turning towards some sort of confederalism. This is the so-called "third way" in the Catalan conflict, which had a rightwing representative in the now defunct Unio (its heirs are aliied to the PSC) . CatComu-Podem is not usually included in the 'constitutionalist' bloc because confederalism and referendum on independence go beyond the Spanish Constitution, but it's not a separatist party. The CatComu membership (the 'comuns') ranges between federalism and sovereigntism

-The PSC is traditionally federalist and supports a constitutioonal reform that turns Spain into a full federal state. The PSC used to have a strong 'catalanist'faction more close to nationalist stances, but many of its members defected to ERC and the 'Comuns' or disappeared in the shadows during the last 10 years. The party os usually alligned in the 'constitutionalist' bloc alongside PP and Cs, but it could actually be included in a 'central bloc' alongside CatComu and some moderate nationalists (non-separatists)

-On the other hand, placing the current incarnation of Junts per Catalunya (after 2020) in any ideological bloc is problematic. Most of the JxCAT members come from the centre-right CDC and the PDeCAT was still there in 2019. However the new Junts is a vehicle of Carles Puigdemont that rejects the legacy of Convergencia and claims to be "progressive". Junts right now is a staunchly pro-independence party with populist tones that lacks a clear ideology.

Nice map. Have you found precinct data for regional elections?

Very nice map Skye! Congrats!. The colours are fine by me. Grácia and Eixample are really bastions of the pro-Independence. Les Cots and Sarrià are the most affluent areas of the city, right?

Right. The most affluent neighbourhood un Barcelona is Pedralbes (Les Corts), followed by Sarria and Sant Gervasi. Gracia is traditionally the district with the strongest nationalist vote and the worst place for PP or Cs

The pattern that you can see in that map is the usual. The blue precincts are located in the affluent upoer city neighbourhoids, the left is stronger in the low income periphery and the middle-class neighbourhoods support the nationalists

Ciutat Vella looks interesting, azul it's apparently splitted between the left and the nationalists. The left is apparently stronger in El Raval and parrs of Barri Gotic, while nationalists win in Barceloneta (ERC stronghold) and other parts of the district. Barri Gotic is usually the strongest place for the 'alternative left' (ECP, CatComu, ICV or whatever)
  

[Skye]

Nice map. Have you found precinct data for regional elections?

Thanks for your input, as well as the added context. Catalan politics is such an exhausting topic lol.

Regarding precinct data for regional elections, the data for the 2017 election is here:

http://www.bcn.cat/estadistica/catala/dades/telec/aut/aut17/caut1004.htm

So as you can see, the data is there, but trying to copy and paste it into excel just brings up a bunch of formatting issues that I simply wasn't able to solve. Maybe it's just that I'm not that savvy with this kind of stuff, but I just couldn't do it.

[Oryxslayer]

Nice map. Have you found precinct data for regional elections?

Thanks for your input, as well as the added context. Catalan politics is such an exhausting topic lol.

Regarding precinct data for regional elections, the data for the 2017 election is here:

http://www.bcn.cat/estadistica/catala/dades/telec/aut/aut17/caut1004.htm

So as you can see, the data is there, but trying to copy and paste it into excel just brings up a bunch of formatting issues that I simply wasn't able to solve. Maybe it's just that I'm not that savvy with this kind of stuff, but I just couldn't do it.

I trust this can work for you?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PwXVJC36t7l2FF10YrJoAZwXKMZpQjD1/view?usp=sharing

It's not that hard to get into Excel, just need to know how set things up before you paste so it reads the table correctly. Also, can I recommend the next step after your block map? It seems the obvious follow-up would be comparisons of parties within the blocks - PSC vs Comu-Podem, PP vs C's vs VOX, ERC vs JxCAT vs CUP - since they are accepted be tenuous groupings, albeit the best ones for this situation.

[Skye]

Nice map. Have you found precinct data for regional elections?

Thanks for your input, as well as the added context. Catalan politics is such an exhausting topic lol.

Regarding precinct data for regional elections, the data for the 2017 election is here:

http://www.bcn.cat/estadistica/catala/dades/telec/aut/aut17/caut1004.htm

So as you can see, the data is there, but trying to copy and paste it into excel just brings up a bunch of formatting issues that I simply wasn't able to solve. Maybe it's just that I'm not that savvy with this kind of stuff, but I just couldn't do it.

I trust this can work for you?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QhSAJrQ9DQkYRq6vhHmcdO3R3cXpBrpU/view?usp=sharing

It's not that hard to get into Excel, just need to know how set things up before you paste so it reads the table correctly. Also, can I recommend the next step after your block map? It seems the obvious follow-up would be comparisons of parties within the blocks - PSC vs Comu-Podem, PP vs C's vs VOX, ERC vs JxCAT vs CUP - since they are accepted be tenuous groupings, albeit the best ones for this situation.

Your spreadsheet is pretty much what I had. Here's the thing. There are two spaces after each number of votes in every cell with a vote. So I have to delete the spaces for the program to be able to recognize the numbers. I run a simple formula to do it. Bang, the number doesn't have the spaces afterwards. Yet it still doesn't work I don't know why. I run a formula to calculate the votes but it's like the program doesn't recognize it as number. I've tried messing with the number format but it doesn't seem to work. It only recognizes it as a number after I click on each number in its formula bar. And well, that's not gonna do it lol. I'll admit I'm not an Excel expert, but damn, I was frustrated with this one and just gave up. If you know of any way to work around it, let me know please.

Regarding the comparisons, it is indeed something I wanted to work on. However, I have to work first on a color scheme. I only have a red-blue color scheme that worked well enough for me for US maps, Spanish maps where only the left and right parties were involved, and Venezuelan maps. I had to make one for a third party for this map! Considering we're talking about 8 parties for this alone, that color scheme gonna take a bit of time. Hopefully I'll be able to have it ready by the time the election comes.

[Oryxslayer]

Nice map. Have you found precinct data for regional elections?

Thanks for your input, as well as the added context. Catalan politics is such an exhausting topic lol.

Regarding precinct data for regional elections, the data for the 2017 election is here:

http://www.bcn.cat/estadistica/catala/dades/telec/aut/aut17/caut1004.htm

So as you can see, the data is there, but trying to copy and paste it into excel just brings up a bunch of formatting issues that I simply wasn't able to solve. Maybe it's just that I'm not that savvy with this kind of stuff, but I just couldn't do it.

I trust this can work for you?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QhSAJrQ9DQkYRq6vhHmcdO3R3cXpBrpU/view?usp=sharing

It's not that hard to get into Excel, just need to know how set things up before you paste so it reads the table correctly. Also, can I recommend the next step after your block map? It seems the obvious follow-up would be comparisons of parties within the blocks - PSC vs Comu-Podem, PP vs C's vs VOX, ERC vs JxCAT vs CUP - since they are accepted be tenuous groupings, albeit the best ones for this situation.

Your spreadsheet is pretty much what I had. Here's the thing. There are two spaces after each number of votes in every cell with a vote. So I have to delete the spaces for the program to be able to recognize the numbers. I run a simple formula to do it. Bang, the number doesn't have the spaces afterwards. Yet it still doesn't work I don't know why. I run a formula to calculate the votes but it's like the program doesn't recognize it as number. I've tried messing with the number format but it doesn't seem to work. It only recognizes it as a number after I click on each number in its formula bar. And well, that's not gonna do it lol. I'll admit I'm not an Excel expert, but damn, I was frustrated with this one and just gave up. If you know of any way to work around it, let me know please.

Try the link now. I believe I have solved your problem, and I uploaded a new version.

What you have described is a bit common when you CTRL+C/V straight from older websites. These websites have characters that separate the values which Excel does not recognize and are not spaces. ALT+0160 is the most common. Here's my quick and easy way to clean for these, since excel will do nothing with these characters.

-CTRL+C/V to new Excel Doc
-Remove any Commas/periods in numbers over 1000 with a CTRL-F. This may not be needed, and since they can be added back later with formatting, but I just do it for safety during future steps.
-Save it as UTF-8 CSV
-Open CSV in Notepad++. You will notice that there are characters (might appear as spaces/tabs) which are not numeric, a ", or a comma.
-Copy the characters and select everything in Notepad++. Do a CTRL+F and replace these characters with nothing. You could also remove all ", but it changes nothing.
-When the lines in the Notepad++ doc look like the following, you are done: ,"72","68","104",,,,,,,,
-Ctrl+C/V this into a new excel sheet and it will now work.

There are ways to set things up with a cleaning script to remove these things solely in excel, but this is quicker since you are just doing CTRL+F removals.

[Skye]

Try the link now. I believe I have solved your problem, and I uploaded a new version.

What you have described is a bit common when you CTRL+C/V straight from older websites. These websites have characters that separate the values which Excel does not recognize and are not spaces. ALT+0160 is the most common. Here's my quick and easy way to clean for these, since excel will do nothing with these characters.

-CTRL+C/V to new Excel Doc
-Remove any Commas/periods in numbers over 1000 with a CTRL-F. This may not be needed, and since they can be added back later with formatting, but I just do it for safety during future steps.
-Save it as UTF-8 CSV
-Open CSV in Notepad++. You will notice that there are characters (might appear as spaces/tabs) which are not numeric, a ", or a comma.
-Copy the characters and select everything in Notepad++. Do a CTRL+F and replace these characters with nothing. You could also remove all ", but it changes nothing.
-When the lines in the Notepad++ doc look like the following, you are done: ,"72","68","104",,,,,,,,
-Ctrl+C/V this into a new excel sheet and it will now work.

There are ways to set things up with a cleaning script to remove these things solely in excel, but this is quicker since you are just doing CTRL+F removals.

Wow, it really is fixed. Thanks for the steps, I'll try to do them myself to see if I understood them correctly.

Since the spreadsheet works, this map will be even easier to do than the previous one. But that'll have to wait until tomorrow, I'm gonna hit the bed now. Again, thanks!

[Velasco]

PSC candidate Salvador Illa will remain as Health minister until the end of January, which is perfectly legal bit will raise fierce criticism from the rest of parties (including Podemos). There exists the possibility that elections in Catalonia are postponed, in case the pandemic gets worse. Right now the situation is complicated and the Health department of theregionalgovernment (controlled by ERC) is implementing more restrictions. Apparently Junts (JxCAT before summer 2020) has an interest in postponing elections, while ERC wants that elections take place on the scheduled date. Curves ahead

[Velasco]

For the sake of comparison, I repost this map of the last two local elections in Barcelona. The map shows the leading parties by neighbourhood in 2015 and 2019. The neighbourhood is an unit larger than the precinct, but smaller than the municipal district. There are 10 districts and 72 neighbourhoods  in BCN



Take the 2019 map and compare with the map in the previous page. Notice the neighbourhoods won by Cs (Manuel Valls) in Pedralbes, Sarria pr Sant Gervasi are approximately the same areas where the right bloc came first in the general elections. The ring of low income neighbourhoods won by the PSC (Antoni Collboni) went to the left bloc six months later, as well as many of the neighbourhoods won by Barcelona en Comu (BComu, Ada Colau). However, there is a remarkable exception in Vila de Gracia, where BComu won a plurality in the local elections (it's very likely the different pro-independence lists were the largest bloc). The neighbourhoods won by ERC (Ernest Maragall) are more or less coincident with the yellow areas in the other map. Local elections took place in May and the last general elections in November 2019

[Skye]

Thanks to Oryx for his spreadsheet. Here's the 2017 Catalan Regional Election in Barcelona by precincts:



Same dynamic as the last time for the blocs, except VOX wasn't a thing back then so the right is only C's+PP. So in the city, we have:

Nationalists: 45.8%
Right: 29.0%
Left: 23.8%

The Spanish left posted poor numbers that year, and it shows. At glance, it seems it was only able to win 6 or so precincts. I made a gif to compare the 2017 to the 2019N one, and look how the most of the areas where the right performed well in 2017 were won by the left in 2019 (except in Ciutat Vella):



Wondering how will it go this year. Polls show the pro-Independence parties doing well (sometimes even earning around 50% of the vote combined), the Right almost certainly falling from its 2017 performance, and the Left in a middling position.

[Velasco]

Thanks to Oryx for his spreadsheet. Here's the 2017 Catalan Regional Election in Barcelona by precincts:

Same dynamic as the last time for the blocs, except VOX wasn't a thing back then so the right is only C's+PP. So in the city, we have:

Nationalists: 45.8%
Right: 29.0%
Left: 23.8%

The Spanish left posted poor numbers that year, and it shows. At glance, it seems it was only able to win 6 or so precincts. I made a gif to compare the 2017 to the 2019N one, and look how the most of the areas where the right performed well in 2017 were won by the left in 2019 (except in Ciutat Vella):

The issue with regional elections in Catalonia (specially since 2012) is that they haven't been fought on the ideological axis. Rather they have been contests focused on the sovereigntist process, between supporters and opponents of the Catalan independence. The 2017 election in particular came after the events in autumn 2017 (unilateral attempt of seccession) that led to the temporary suspension of the regional autónomy. Unlike the general elections, the most obvious bloc division for me is pro-independence (JxCAT, ERC, CUP) vs constitutionalist* (Cs, PSC, PP). Catalunya en Comu-Podem would be in no-man's land on this axis, as they represent a "third way" . Other alternative division would be Nationalists vs non-nationalists, including the 'comuns' in the second group (or sovereigntists vs non-sovereigntists with CatComu-Pidem in the first group)

Worth noting that the Cs success in 2015 and 2017 is the direct consequence of the climate of polarization around the national question. Cs was perceived as the party that more firmly opposed separatism and catched voters from all the non-nationalist forces; PSC, PP and even the likes of CatComu. You can appreciate that the PSC strongholds in the periphery turn blue in your second map, because there was a vote transfer from the other non-nationalist parties to Cs. There is an amount of leftwing voters identifying themselves as Spanish that gave Cs a borrowed vote, but they don't neccessarily agree that Cs positions itself in the rightwing bloc. Anyway the main victim of polarization and Ines Arrimadas was the PP, which was reduced to only 4 seats in parliament

*Catalan separatists call these parties "the bloc of the 155", which is a derogatory way to say they support the implementaron of article 155 and the oppression of the Spanish state

With regard to Vox the party is obviously anti-separatist, but I eould challenge the motion that a party seeking to abolish the "state of the autonomies" is constitutionalist

[Skye]

The issue with regional elections in Catalonia (specially since 2012) is that they haven't been fought on the ideological axis. Rather they have been contests focused on the sovereigntist process, between supporters and opponents of the Catalan independence. The 2017 election in particular came after the events in autumn 2017 (unilateral attempt of seccession) that led to the temporary suspension of the regional autónomy. Unlike the general elections, the most obvious bloc division for me is pro-independence (JxCAT, ERC, CUP) vs constitutionalist* (Cs, PSC, PP). Caralunya en Comu-Podem would be un no-man's land on this axis, as they represent a "third way" .

I could do a map of "Unionists" v. "Separatists" using the blocs you outlined. I just don't know about excluding CatComu-Podem.