Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

Tbh I find it kind of ironic that ERC is now supporting centralization and meddling on the affairs of the regions

Ironic? This cannot be the first time a Spanish regional party promotes "regionalism for me but not for thee", is it?

Maybe ir seems ironic coming from ERC, but tax dumping affects Catalonia too. On the other hand, fiscal harmonization does not strike as a centralist measure to me. Rather I think federal countries should embarace it and discourage policies that create fiscal imbalances. Moreover, Madrid is the region containing the capital of Spain and should lead by example. But the Madrid regional governments have chosen instead to become a tax haven for millionaires, at the expense of public services (years of budget cuts affect public healthcare in times of pandemic) and the rest of Spain. It's quite ironic and hypocritical to see rightwing leaders in Madrid crying at the lack of solidarity of Catalans and Basques, while taking advantage of dumping practices and the advantages of being the capital.  Some people is beginning to compare the 'rebel' Ayuso with the Catalan separatist leaders, because there's a common ground in what concerns the lack of solidarity and sense of state. If ERC is truly interested in tax reform and harmonization, that's excellent news. I fear the ongoing conflict will benefit Ayuso in Madrid, though. The Spanish Right will claim there's an attack on Madrid based on hatred from Catalonia, as it happened when Health minister Salvador Illa was accused by the PP of hating Madrid when he enforced the state of emergency in the region

The people of Madrid have voted PP for decades now (Tamayazo not withstanding); on a platform of austerity + tax cuts. I do not agree with that platform, but the people of Madrid have decided that is the model they want for their region. Who is ERC to deny them such privilege?

I am in favour of fiscal balancing, and of rich regions supporting the poorer ones (this is something the EU actually does quite well and that we could pull off nationally too). But this should not be done by the federal government meddling on the affairs of the regions. If the people of Madrid want low taxes and sh*tty healthcare, let them have it. Just likehow Catalonia probably prefers higher taxes and a good safety net.

Bonus points when you consider that the Basque Country has a special tax model that is much closer to "tax dumping" than whatever Madrid does, yet I don't see ERC wanting to abolish it (ftr I do not support abolishing it, but that just adds to the hypocresy)

1) The PP was not the winner of the last regional elecction, it was the PSOE the party with the most votes. However, the parties right of the centre won a majority and they certainly support los taxes. Nevertheless the people of Madrid did not give a clear mandate yo Ayuso: she governs because the "centrist liberals" opted for our kitsch version of Donald Trump instead of the reasonable Ángel Gabilondo. Right now the region of Madrid and the whole Spain could have been governed by a centrist 'social-liberal' coalition. Never forget it was the decision of Albert Rivera, not the will of the people of Madrid

2) I heard Spain is the only European country where income and inheritance taxes are decentralized. There are good reasons yo think that's a mistake. Madrid is a central region containing the capital of Spain, as well a wealthy region that can afford lowering faxes, attracting top earners from elsewhere in Spain. Other regiones lack the resources avalaible in Madrid and cannot afford such low taxes nor compete with the wealthy capital. That's a clear example of tax dumping. Key principales of a federal state should be solidarity and corresponsobility. Fiscal harmonization consists in establishing superior and inferior limits to taxes. That's not meddling un regional affairs, but establishing the game rules. The government has been considering harmonization before the deal with ERC. It's not only Catalonia; Valencia premier Ximo Puig already complained against tax dumping.However, it was a clear mistake on the part of ERC spokesman Gabriel Rufián to raise the question of harmonization as a battle against the Madrid's "fiscal oasis". Rufián has made a big favor to Ayuso, who is a big fan of cultural battles. Such conflicts could lead eventually to the failure of reform attempts

3) The Concierto Económico, the tax system ruling un Basque Country and Navarra, is completely unrelated to this question. These regions collect taxes in a different way, but a tax harmonization would affect them regardless. By no means the Concierto Económico is a form of tax dumping: we are talking about tax rates, not about tax systems. As for the solidarity, these regions put money into the joint fund through the "cupo", which is an amount is negotiated with the central government. It's a systems deeply entrenched in the tradition of these regions that works well. It does not neccessarily imply privilege or  lack of solidarity, as some centralist folks claim. Remember that we have in the Canaries another kind of special tax system, too

Spain as a whole has a lot of pending reforms, including administration, tax system and the functioning of the decentralized state

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Stockholm still votes to the right of the country as a whole, no? Oslo as well, possibly.

I am not sure about Stockholm proper, but its suburbs seem to be the only places where the Moderate Party tops the poll, together with the suburbs of Malmö.
Oslo seems to be right-leaning too, yes.

I wonder when various capitals last voted to the right of their nation.
Rome has never done in the Second Republic Party System. Things get obviously messy before 1994... the margin between DC and PCI was generally closer (actually PCI won Rome in 1976 and 1983) but Rome was also peculiarly good for the far-right. Last time Rome uncontrovertibly voted to the right of Italy appears to be 1948.

[Mike88]

Stockholm still votes to the right of the country as a whole, no? Oslo as well, possibly.

I am not sure about Stockholm proper, but its suburbs seem to be the only places where the Moderate Party tops the poll, together with the suburbs of Malmö.
Oslo seems to be right-leaning too, yes.

I wonder when various capitals last voted to the right of their nation.
Rome has never done in the Second Republic Party System. Things get obviously messy before 1994... the margin between DC and PCI was generally closer (actually PCI won Rome in 1976 and 1983) but Rome was also peculiarly good for the far-right. Last time Rome uncontrovertibly voted to the right of Italy appears to be 1948.

Lisbon is a swing city as it has voted for the winner in every general election since 1975, but more recently the city tends to give a slight higher share for the rightwing parties than the country as a whole, in general elections of course. Local elections are a whole different championship.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Stockholm still votes to the right of the country as a whole, no? Oslo as well, possibly.

I am not sure about Stockholm proper, but its suburbs seem to be the only places where the Moderate Party tops the poll, together with the suburbs of Malmö.
Oslo seems to be right-leaning too, yes.

I wonder when various capitals last voted to the right of their nation.
Rome has never done in the Second Republic Party System. Things get obviously messy before 1994... the margin between DC and PCI was generally closer (actually PCI won Rome in 1976 and 1983) but Rome was also peculiarly good for the far-right. Last time Rome uncontrovertibly voted to the right of Italy appears to be 1948.

Lisbon is a swing city as it has voted for the winner in every general election since 1975, but more recently the city tends to give a slight higher share for the rightwing parties than the country as a whole, in general elections of course. Local elections are a whole different championship.

is Lisbon trending to the right?

[Mike88]

Stockholm still votes to the right of the country as a whole, no? Oslo as well, possibly.

I am not sure about Stockholm proper, but its suburbs seem to be the only places where the Moderate Party tops the poll, together with the suburbs of Malmö.
Oslo seems to be right-leaning too, yes.

I wonder when various capitals last voted to the right of their nation.
Rome has never done in the Second Republic Party System. Things get obviously messy before 1994... the margin between DC and PCI was generally closer (actually PCI won Rome in 1976 and 1983) but Rome was also peculiarly good for the far-right. Last time Rome uncontrovertibly voted to the right of Italy appears to be 1948.

Lisbon is a swing city as it has voted for the winner in every general election since 1975, but more recently the city tends to give a slight higher share for the rightwing parties than the country as a whole, in general elections of course. Local elections are a whole different championship.

is Lisbon trending to the right?

Like I said, it's a swing city as it goes left to right quite rapidly, but, for example, the overall rightwing vote in Lisbon city grew a tiny bit from 2015 to 2019, 37.5% to 38.2%. Nationwide, the rightwing vote in 2015 and 2019 was 38.6% and 35.4% respectively. Porto city is trending right much more rapidly and strongly.

[CumbrianLefty]

(Greater) London last - narrowly - voted to the right of Britain as a whole as recently as 1992.

(and more decisively so in 1987)

[Skye]

Anyway:
1. I'm surprised #trends haven't hit the region of Madrid yet.
2. [citation needed] on your comment about the EU, because it seems to me that it's always damn complicated to get that.
3. Your above post is a good explanation (not that I needed any - we are on a mainly American forum) of why I think federalism generally sucks.

1) Yeah, while there has been movement in Madrid lately, it is not the usual #trends of the cities going far left. The posh areas of Madrid (Salamanca neighbourhood) and upper class western suburbs (Las Rozas, Majadahonda, etc) thankfully still give the right routinely 70% or more. As things should be

Iirc Madrid is one of very few European capitals (maybe the only one?) that votes to the right of the country.

Whether or not #trends will eventually hit is a mystery, but for now Madrid remains something like 7 points to the right of Spain at large. Winnable in a wave, but not by much.

2) My thought was that the EU's regional development funds do a great job at propping up the less developed areas of the EU. Spain certainly benefited from this in the 80s and 90s; and nowadays it is Eastern Europe that is catching up very fast to Western Europe.

We just need a similar scheme at the national level.

Yes, actually, this map is titled "Spot the fancy neighborhoods":

[Former President tack50]

1) The PP was not the winner of the last regional elecction, it was the PSOE the party with the most votes. However, the parties right of the centre won a majority and they certainly support los taxes. Nevertheless the people of Madrid did not give a clear mandate yo Ayuso: she governs because the "centrist liberals" opted for our kitsch version of Donald Trump instead of the reasonable Ángel Gabilondo. Right now the region of Madrid and the whole Spain could have been governed by a centrist 'social-liberal' coalition. Never forget it was the decision of Albert Rivera, not the will of the people of Madrid

2) I heard Spain is the only European country where income and inheritance taxes are decentralized. There are good reasons yo think that's a mistake. Madrid is a central region containing the capital of Spain, as well a wealthy region that can afford lowering faxes, attracting top earners from elsewhere in Spain. Other regiones lack the resources avalaible in Madrid and cannot afford such low taxes nor compete with the wealthy capital. That's a clear example of tax dumping. Key principales of a federal state should be solidarity and corresponsobility. Fiscal harmonization consists in establishing superior and inferior limits to taxes. That's not meddling un regional affairs, but establishing the game rules. The government has been considering harmonization before the deal with ERC. It's not only Catalonia; Valencia premier Ximo Puig already complained against tax dumping.However, it was a clear mistake on the part of ERC spokesman Gabriel Rufián to raise the question of harmonization as a battle against the Madrid's "fiscal oasis". Rufián has made a big favor to Ayuso, who is a big fan of cultural battles. Such conflicts could lead eventually to the failure of reform attempts

3) The Concierto Económico, the tax system ruling un Basque Country and Navarra, is completely unrelated to this question. These regions collect taxes in a different way, but a tax harmonization would affect them regardless. By no means the Concierto Económico is a form of tax dumping: we are talking about tax rates, not about tax systems. As for the solidarity, these regions put money into the joint fund through the "cupo", which is an amount is negotiated with the central government. It's a systems deeply entrenched in the tradition of these regions that works well. It does not neccessarily imply privilege or  lack of solidarity, as some centralist folks claim. Remember that we have in the Canaries another kind of special tax system, too

Spain as a whole has a lot of pending reforms, including administration, tax system and the functioning of the decentralized state

1) I mean, for better or worse Spain is locked into a 2 blocks policy right now; and the right won a comfortable majority in 2019 (they also won the popular vote). You'd have good arguments for 2015 (the right loses the popular vote but gets a majority due to IU falling below the threshold) or 2003 (see: Tamayazo). Of course, that still conveniently forgets about the 2 times the Madrid voters gave PP massive majorities under notoriously right wing premier Esperanza Aguirre (2007 & 2011); or 1995 & 1999 for that matter.

Cs decided to go with a right wing coalition in Madrid and that's their choice. Voters will reward (or punish) them accordingly 4 years from now. But the mandate is certainly there for further tax cuts and what not.

2) I mean, this is an American forum, where even sales tax is decentralized! But the US aren't in Europe so fair point.

I do know Madrid is a rich region and that is why I want strong rebalancing programs to counter that, but taxation should still be quite decentralized (more than now in fact, not less). Madrid, for virtue of being the capital and biggest metropolitan area is always going to be richer than average, but that is not a reason to kill its autonomy? It is a reason for better rebalancing programs, but not for centralism.

3) I used the Concierto as an example where the tax dumping is arguably clearer than in Madrid's case. Madrid at least gives more in taxes than it gets back from the central government. But despite the Basque Country (and Navarra) being 2 of the richest regions in Spain, they also take more in taxes than they give in return!

I also remember some takes about how the concierto allows the 2 regions to change corporation tax, and a lower corporation tax means that companies prefer to operate in Álava than in La Rioja across the border; leading to negative effects on La Rioja's economy.

I do agree on the need for reforms though; as the Catalonia situation shows very clearly. But when 35% of the country wants recentralization and a further 20% wants independence, I think the status quo is likely to stay as a lesser evil.

[Velasco]

[

1) I mean, for better or worse Spain is locked into a 2 blocks policy right now; and the right won a comfortable majority in 2019 (they also won the popular vote). You'd have good arguments for 2015 (the right loses the popular vote but gets a majority due to IU falling below the threshold) or 2003 (see: Tamayazo). Of course, that still conveniently forgets about the 2 times the Madrid voters gave PP massive majorities under notoriously right wing premier Esperanza Aguirre (2007 & 2011); or 1995 & 1999 for that matter.

Cs decided to go with a right wing coalition in Madrid and that's their choice. Voters will reward (or punish) them accordingly 4 years from now. But the mandate is certainly there for further tax cuts and what not.

2) I mean, this is an American forum, where even sales tax is decentralized! But the US aren't in Europe so fair point.

I do know Madrid is a rich region and that is why I want strong rebalancing programs to counter that, but taxation should still be quite decentralized (more than now in fact, not less). Madrid, for virtue of being the capital and biggest metropolitan area is always going to be richer than average, but that is not a reason to kill its autonomy? It is a reason for better rebalancing programs, but not for centralism.

3) I used the Concierto as an example where the tax dumping is arguably clearer than in Madrid's case. Madrid at least gives more in taxes than it gets back from the central government. But despite the Basque Country (and Navarra) being 2 of the richest regions in Spain, they also take more in taxes than they give in return!

I also remember some takes about how the concierto allows the 2 regions to change corporation tax, and a lower corporation tax means that companies prefer to operate in Álava than in La Rioja across the border; leading to negative effects on La Rioja's economy.

I do agree on the need for reforms though; as the Catalonia situation shows very clearly. But when 35% of the country wants recentralization and a further 20% wants independence, I think the status quo is likely to stay as a lesser evil.

1) Being locked in leftwing and rightwing blocs is not an inevitability. While the parties right of the centre considered as a block won more votes and seats in the 2019 elections, voters in Madrid did not cast their ballots for specific coalitions; they just determined the composition of the regional assembly.  The election result gave Cs the role of kingmaker. Being allegedly a centrist liberal party, Cs had two choices: a) joining the centre-left party that won a plurality and entering a coalition government led by a prestigious professor and a former Education minister, propoed up by a leftwing democrátic party advocating ecologism and feminism; b) joining the rightwing party that came second with its worst result ever, after many years in government and multiple corruption scandals, led by an unqualified and fanatic scion of Esperanza Aguirre and propoed up by the likes of Trump, Bolsonaro and Franco. Voters have already punished Albert Rivera, who could have been a powerful deputy PM in a government led by Pedro Sánchez but opted for confrontation and sectarianism paving the way for the far right. It seems unlikely that Inés Arrimadas will manage to save Cs despite her efforts

2) Our model in federalism should be Germany and not the USA. Decentralizing income and inheritance taxes fosters inequality and the concentration of wealth in a few areas to the detriment of the rest. The concentration of wealth in Madrid is to the detriment of the rest of the country. The prosperity of Madrid will be sustained on a firmer ground if the other regions can thrive as well, otherwise the capital could be like a disproportionately big head over a weak and feeble body. On the other hand; it's important in times of crisis that the rich pay taxes and the policies of the Madrid regional government alongside the imperfect Spanish tax system give too much advantages to the top earners.  That's unfair and must be reformed

3) Tax rates and fiscal balances are different issues. Madrid, -alongside Catalonia, Valencia and the Balearic Islands- pays a higher amount in taxes than the investment received in return, while Andalusia and other poor regions receive more than they pay. Basque Country and Navarra receive apparently slightly more, which is an advantage considering they are wealthier than average. Valencia is regarded the least favored region by the current financing system and its regional government has comisioned studies analyzing the impact of the Madrid's"tax oadis" un the rest of Spain. The question is to prevent the excessive concentration of wealth and the subsequent territorial imbalances; that's the reason why tax harmonization is neccessary and the rich folks in Madrid should pay more taxes. The amount that Basque Country and Navarra put into the joint fund can be negotiated, eventually

[Former President tack50]

Velasco simplemente es un hackish lo he dicho desde siempre. Lol imagina creer que los votantes de Cs querían un gobierno con el Psoe.

Solo mira lo que dice de el supuesto "castigo a Rivera", Cs obtuvo su mejor resultado histórico después de la foto de colon, no antes. Ese supuesto "castigo" sin fundamento alguno, se debió en gran medida a la vuelta de votantes de Cs al PP o a Vox. De ser cierto ese supuesto "castigo" por apoyar a la derecha, entonces esos votantes habrían acudido en masa al Psoe, el partido que Velasco define como "Benevolente de centro izquierda (Con el mayor caso de corrupción de la historia de España y además de terrorismo institucionalizado), no a la "extrema derecha" de Vox y el PP.

Lo suyo me imagino que sería usar el inglés aquí no? Yo también me sentiría más cómodo en español pero es lo que hay. Aunque sea por educación al resto de foreros.

That being said...

First of all, Velasco is a perfectly fine poster with whom I agree on some topics and disagree on others, just like everyone else. He is far from the biggest hack on the forum.

Regarding a PSOE-Cs deal, I will note that a big amount of Cs voters outright didn't vote in November 2019. Sure, a lot of them went to PP and Vox because they feared a deal with PSOE and Cs last ditch flip flops. But an amount just as large stayed at home on election day because they were disappointed at the so-called centrists not doing a deal with PSOE.

The 2nd group is arguably smaller than the first, but not by that much. Polling from the time gave roughly a 60-40 split between those who wanted Cs to stick with Sanchez rejection, and those who wanted a PSOE-Cs deal.

[Velasco]

Voters had very little reasons to fear a PSOE-Cs deal after the November 2019 elections, given that Albert Rivera made clear that Pedro Sánchez was the Public Enemy Number One. How can you think that Rivera is going to join the leader of "La Banda" when he refuses to have a courtesy meeting with him at La Moncloa (even Pablo Casado went there when Sánchez invited him, for God's sake!)

The reasons for the success in April 2019 are related to the disintegration of the PP after the Gurtel ruling and the success of the no-confidence motion, in addition to the weak leadership of Pablo Casado. Rivera almost became the leader of the Spanish Right, falling short by some 300k votes. However, that result might seem underwhelming considering that Cs led some national polls at the peak of the Catalan conflict. The picture of the three leaders of the Right at Colón Square led Sánchez to call elections and helped the socialists to succeed.

There are several post-election analyses on vote transfers. Acording to Sociométrica 19% of the Cs voters switched ro  PP in November, 20% to Vox, 4% to PSOE and 30% didn't show up. Figures vary slightly depending on the pollster, but not so much

The PP regained nearly 1 million voters from Cs. In all likelihood former PP voters coming back. Remember that the campaign of Pablo Casado had a slightly more moderate tone. That helped to regain those voters, but also favored transfers to VOX in  the polarized environment of those days (and Rivera contributed a lot in that). The gains from Cs were higher than the losses VOX, so the PP improved slightly its disastrous April result

Some 400k switched from Cs to VOX. In all likelihood these voters are more nationalist or centralist and contrary to peripheral nationalists and separatists

Some 250k switched from CS to PSOE, much les than stratehists at La Moncloa were hoping to catch

More than 1 million didn't show up and stayed at home. Analysts think these voters are mostly centrists disappointed by polarization. Centrist voters are more volatile and prone to stay at home than voters places closer to the extremes

In my opinion, the strategy of polarization followed by Rivera was a big failure that provoked: a) his own polítical demise in poly 6 months; b) the radicalization of the rightwing bloc with the rise the far right

Pedro Sánchez and his inner circle are guilty for that electoral repetition that nobody wanted, but certainly Rivera's intransigence paved the way for the likes of Trump in Spain. On the other hand, I never believed Rivera was a centrist

[Velasco]

"American-style libertarianism comes to Spain"

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-11-27/american-style-libertarianism-comes-to-spain.html

The restrictions applied by governments around the world to address the coronavirus pandemic have triggered ubiquitous popular protests. In Spain, the first ones began on May 10, on Núñez de Balboa street, in the upscale Salamanca district of Madrid.

Others have since followed, besides those staged by professional sectors; there have been protests by the extreme right, by coronavirus deniers and even by vandals, not to mention the marches organized specifically by the far-right party Vox. What they all have in common is the word “freedom” in their slogans. The concept is striking – it clashes with defending the general public interest with regard to controlling the virus. It is also an exotic concept within the Spanish political scene, which is unaccustomed to the extreme demand for individual freedom that holds such sway in the US.

is a concept has been incorporated into the general discourse adopted by the Spanish opposition, which has for months been accusing the center-left government of taking advantage of the pandemic to establish something akin to an authoritarian regime (...)
  

As certain polítical analyst said recently, Spain could be a funny place if we forget the coronavirus crisis. We have the Catalan separatists advocating tax harmonization (the idea is not theirs: socialists Ximo Puig and Susana Diaz taised the question previously), Spanish unitarians advocating tax decentralization and the heirs of Franco crying "freedom"

[Former President tack50]

You know the old saying that "Libertarians are Republicans that like to smoke weed"?. Well seems like we are doing it the opposite way around

[Former President tack50]

So today the Spanish budget finally passed the Congress of Deputies. It still needs to pass the Senate but that should be comparatively easy (and if needed, the Congress can override the Senate anyways)

The vote ended up going like this:

Aye: 188 (PSOE, UP, ERC, Bildu, PNV, Más País, Compromís, NCa, PRC, TEx and PDECat*
Nay: 154 (PP, Vox, Cs, CUP, CC, UPN, Foro and JxCat*)
Abstain: 1 (BNG)

Here is a list of the main changes the budget brings:

> Income Tax is increased for high earners: Goes up by 3 points for salaries over 200k€ and by a further 2 points on salaries over 300k€
> Wealth Tax increase: Goes up by 1 point for people with over 10 million € in wealth
> Loopholes regarding corporate tax are closed
> Real Estate Investment Trusts must pay at least 15% in corporate taxes

> Pensions will be raised: Standard pensions go up by 0.9% and "non contributive pensions" (intended for widows who were stay at home mums their entire lives and what not, generally lower than regular pensions) go up by 1.8%. This is despite inflation in Spain being negative in 2020 (because COVID)
> Tax deductions for private pension plans are cut

> University scolarship money is increased by 250 million
> Paternity leave is increased: It will now be equal to maternity leave at 16 weeks, with 100% pay.

> IPREM (an income value used to calculate certain benefits) goes up by 5%, so more people will be able to request public funds
> Local administrations and autonomous communities will be allowed to impose rent control if they want. Already existing rent control bills (most notably in Catalonia) are grandfathered in.

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4432564/0/limites-al-precio-del-alquiler-ampliacion-del-ingreso-minimo-y-subida-fiscal-las-claves-del-proyecto-de-presupuestos/?autoref=true
https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4498192/0/el-congreso-da-luz-verde-a-los-presupuestos-y-el-gobierno-ya-acaricia-su-aprobacion-final/?autoref=true

Regarding PDECat/JxCat*:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

JxCat seems to have recently split in Congress into 2 factions. A more hardline secessionist and personalist faction supporting Puigdemont that kept the JxCat name; and the faction belonging to PDECat, less hardline on independence and who don't want to be a party solely centered around Puigdemont. If I am not mistaken both sides have 4 MPs each in the Spanish Congress.

In any case, JxCat and the Puigdemont faction is the one that will get most of the voting base; while PDECat is doomed to fail just like most other "moderate centre-right secessionist" parties. The "post CiU space" in Catalonia is a big headache.

[Velasco]

Minister asks for probe of online chat where ex-army officials discuss ‘executing 26 million Spaniards (that is to say all the eligible citizens not voting for the right)

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-12-04/spains-defense-minister-asks-for-probe-of-online-chat-where-ex-army-officials-discuss-executing-26-million-spaniards.html

 Spain’s Defense Minister, Margarita Robles, has sent prosecutors at the Madrid regional High Court information about a WhatsApp chat group in which retired military officials appear to show support for military uprisings and mass executions.

Robles is asking prosecutors to determine whether the messages exchanged by members of the 19th graduating class of the Air Force Academy constitute a crime “by individuals who additionally may have posed as members of the military in active duty service without being so,” said ministry sources.

The minister’s request is backed by information published on Wednesday by the online daily Infolibre, which reported two messages in the private chat group as stating the following: “There is no other choice but to start executing 26 million sons-of-bitches,” and: “What a pity not to be in active duty service in order to reroute a hot flight [carrying real ammunition] from Bárdenas [firing range] to the headquarters of those sons-of-bitches,” alluding to the separatist organization Catalan National Assembly (ANC), which played a leading role in the 2017 attempt at the Catalonia region’s unilateral secession from Spain. These two quotes have been attributed to Division General Francisco Beca Casanova and to Colonel Andrés González Espinar, respectively (...)
 

VOX MP Macarena Olona said in Congress that "of course" these retired army officers -whom also sent a letter to King Felipe warning about the dangers of the "social-communist" government- are "our people", in case anyone has doubts conceening the undemocratic nature of the far-right party

https://elpais.com/espana/2020-12-02/vox-sobre-la-carta-de-los-exmilitares-al-rey-por-supuesto-que-es-nuestra-gente.html


In other news, the Supreme Court revoked yhe one prison regime granted to the Catalan separatist leaders

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-12-04/supreme-court-revokes-open-prison-regime-granted-to-jailed-catalan-separatist leaders


https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-12-04/supreme-court-revokes-open-prison-regime-granted-to-jailed-catalan-separatist-leaders.html

Catalan separatist leaders who were convicted for their role in the 2017 unilateral breakaway attempt will remain in prison after the Spanish Supreme Court revoked the open regime granted to them by the Catalan government. That move had been appealed and was pending a decision by the court..

Supreme Court justices said it is “premature” for the prisoners to be moved to a flexible regime, and that more time needs to elapse in order to assess the inmates’ progress, especially in light of the fact that they have served less than half of their prison terms.

The alternatives for the jailed politicians are either pardon from the government or a reform of the penal code abolishing the obsolete charge of sedition

[Velasco]

Deputy premier Pere Aragonès signed yesterday the decree calling elections in Catalonia on February14 next year

Leading Candidates

Cs: Carlos Carrizosa, the spokesman in the Catalan Parliament replacing the candidate-elect Lorena Roldan (who was intended to be the replacement of Inés Arrimadas) as a measure of damage control. Bad prospects for the oranges in this election.


ERC: Pere Aragonès, deputy premier until premier Quim Torra was disqualified from office. "Interim premier" since then. Backed by party leader Oriol Junqueras, who is in jail since 2017. ERC is leading in the polls.

JUNTS: Laura Borràs, member of the Spanish Congress and minister of Culture in the regional government. Party leader is former premier Carles Puigdemont, who lives in Waterloo (Belgium) since 2017 in a self imposed exile. Puigdemont announced he will the head of the Barcelona list, but not the candidate

PSC-PSOE: Salvador Illa. The candidacy of the Health minister and PSC's second-in-command was announced by the end of 2020. Illa replaces the veteran secretary general Miquel Iceta,un an attempt to take advantage of Illa's high visibility during the pandemic to mobilize voters and boost the PSC chances

CATCOMU-PODEM: Jessica Albiach, the leader of the Catalan branch of Podemos. Not good prospects given that the natural leader of the  'comuns' ("commons") and Barcelona mayor Ada Colau is not at her best moment

CUP-Guanyem: Dolors Sabater, a fomer Badalona mayor and leader of Guanyem Catalunya with a profile higher than the people placed on top by the CUP in previous elections

PP: Alejandro Fernández, replacing Badalona mayor and 2017 candidate Xavier García Albiol. The contest between Cs, PP and Vox in Catalonia could be tight and it will have repercusions at national level. The PP hired the former Cs candidate Lorena Roldan, a surprise move announced the same day it was known that Salvador Illa would be the PSC candidate

PDeCAT: Angels Chacón, a former member of the regional government who was fired by Quim Torra after the split between JxCAT (Junts) and PDeCAT. The heir of Convergencia will struggle to win seats

VOX: ignacio Garriga, whom intervened briefly in the debate of the Vox's no confidence motion introducing Santiago Abascal. VOX will win seats in all likelihood according to polls

PNC: Marta Pascal, former coordinator of the PDeCAT whom played a key role in the success of the no confidence motion against Mariano Rajoy in 2018 and was fired by Carles Puigdemont afterwards. It'd be a surprise that Pascal enters in the next parliament, despite she is regarded a brave and valuable polítician by some people (mostly non-separatist). Pragmatic centre-right sovereigntism appears weak and divided

[Velasco]

Last CEO poll (total;135 seats)

ERC 35 (23.0%)
JxCAT 30-32 (19.6%)
PSC 25 (18.5%)
Cs 14-16 (11 6%)
CUP 8-9 (6 4%)
CatComu 7-9 (6.9%)
PP 7-9 (6.0%)
Vox 4-6 (4.6%)
PDeCAT 0-1 (1.9%)

[Velasco]

The 2021 budget is formally approved after a vote that took place yesterday right in the Senate. The Upper House rejected all amendments and the budget plan was passed with 145 votes in favour, 118 against and 2 abstentions

Madrid mayor José Luis Martinez Almeida (PP) signed a budget deal with Vox spokesman Javier Ortega Smith. Deputy mayor Begoña Villacis (Cs) was not present in the signing before the photographers, despite the budget plan is endorsed by her party. Almeida argued that the presence of Villacis was not neccessary because PP and Cs form a single government.

Recently the Spanish Congress approved the first euthanasia bill in our country with a broad majority. This time Cs voted in favour while PP, Vox and UPN opposed

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-12-17/spanish-congress-approves-first-euthanasia-bill-with-broad-majority.html

In a historic vote, Spain’s lower house of parliament on Thursday (Dec. 17) gave majority backing to the country’s first euthanasia law.

The bill regulating the right to a dignified death attracted cross-party support and was approved on first reading with 198-138 votes and two abstentions. It will now go to the Senate, and if no amendments are introduced, it could go into effect in the early months of 2021. This would make Spain the sixth country in the world to recognize this right after the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Canada and New Zealand. In Switzerland, assisted suicide “from non-selfish motives” is legal.

The law will allow people suffering from a serious, incurable condition to request and receive assistance to end their lives. The petition must be made on four occasions and be backed by medical reports, and healthcare workers will retain their right to conscientious objection. After the procedure is approved by an evaluating committee, the patient must give final consent again. Supporters said these provisions guarantee that euthanasia will be an option but never an imposition as its detractors have claimed (...)

 The leader of Ciudadanos (Citizens), Inés Arrimadas, said it was an honor to support the bill, which began as an initiative of leftist parties. “We are liberal and we support liberty,” she said, asking detractors to refrain from turning the bill’s contents into “a caricature.”

[Velasco]

Recent nationwide opinion polls show signs of weariness in the electoral base affecting the PSOE-UP coalition government, which is unsurprising given the dramatic context.The PSOE remains relatively stable gaining some voters from UP,  but according to the CIS it'd be losing moderate voters to Cs (the type ofvoter disliking deals with ERC and Bildu still listening to Felipe González). Surprisingly Pedro Sánchez gets his highest approval rate among the UP voters, even surpassing the score of Pablo Iglesias. The PSOE is polling between 27.4% (lnvymark) and 29.5% (CIS) in the most recent polls.  The tactical manoeuvres of Pablo Iglesias in order to diferentiate from the socialists appealing to republicanism, the "Plural Spain" or social policies to tackle poverty are not paying off. UP voters appear demobilized with some of them prone to switch to PSOE or not showing up. UP is polling between 9.5% (GAD3) and 10.8% (CIS). Voters right of the centre are more mobilized in the polarized environment. The PP is seemingly gaining ground without major Vox losses.  PP is polling between 19 2% (CIS) and 25.2% (GAD3); Vox is polling between 13.1% (GAD3) and 16.1% (Invymark). The Cs voter base is the most volatile and hard to predict;  I'd take the CIS double digits with a grain of salt. Cs is polling between 7.1% (GAD3) and 10.5% (CIS)

Once the budget has been passed with the support of ERC and Bildu, ensuring stability for the next couple of years, the tactical moves of the PSOE will be driven to appeal its moderate base. Disssent between coalition partners is not well received by public opinion, so the governments needs to convey an image of unity. But on the other hand the minor partner UP needs to struggle against the Sánchez 's bear hug...

[Former President tack50]

To get an idea of Catalonia's political geography, here is a map I recently did of the 2017 election by block (secessionists vs unionists; UP was ignored):



The graduations go in blocks of 10, so the lightest colour is 40-50%; then 50-60%; etc

Most unionist county of Catalonia (only one where they break 60%) is the Aran Valley in the Pyrinees, though the bigger unionist counties over 50% are Baix Llobregat (Barcelona suburbs), Tarragones (Tarragona) and Baix Penedes (coastal county near Tarragona, surprisingly unionist for a rural-ish area)

Most secessionist areas are of course the rurals, with Pla de l'Estany (small county in Girona province), Priorat (inland county in Tarragona province) and Pallars Sobira (in the Pyrinees); though most of inland rural Catalonia is super secessionist anyways. Only exceptions being Segrià (home to the provincial capital and border town of Lleida) and Alta Ribagorça (very small population, probably home to rich skiers from Castille or with influence from the Aran Valley or something)

[Velasco]

Breaking news: Carles Puigdemont announced he will be the Junts head of list in Barcelona, in order to support the candidacy of Laura Borràs. In other words, Puigdemont puts his name but he has no plans to return to Catalonia risking an arrest. Puigdemont was already the head of list from exile in the 2017 Catalan elections and in the 2019 EP elections, with remarkable success in both cases. He is undeniably the most popular figure in the Catalan independence  movement, someone akin to a legitimist populist  

In other news, the Senate ratified the Education Law sponsored by minister Isabel Celaá. I think I heard a claxon demonstration against this bill the day before yesterday

[Velasco]

Most unionist county of Catalonia (only one where they break 60%) is the Aran Valley in the Pyrinees, though the bigger unionist counties over 50% are Baix Llobregat (Barcelona suburbs), Tarragones (Tarragona) and Baix Penedes (coastal county near Tarragona, surprisingly unionist for a rural-ish area)

Most secessionist areas are of course the rurals, with Pla de l'Estany (small county in Girona province), Priorat (inland county in Tarragona province) and Pallars Sobira (in the Pyrinees); though most of inland rural Catalonia is super secessionist anyways. Only exceptions being Segrià (home to the provincial capital and border town of Lleida) and Alta Ribagorça (very small population, probably home to rich skiers from Castille or with influence from the Aran Valley or something)

I don't think there are important ski resorts in Alta Ribagorça, but I might be wrong. Val d'Aran is special because it's a comarca* geographically isolated from the rest of Catalonia; a valley located on the other side of the Pyrenees looking towards France (Upper Garonne). The Aranese (Occitan) is a proper language different from Catalan or French. There are ski resorts in Val d'Aran and a sizeable amount of population coming from other Spanish regions. Alta Ribagorça is connected to Val d'Aran through the Vielha tunnel. It's sparsely populated due to the rugged mountain terrain. Peoole there speaks a Catalan dialect with some Aragonese elements and the economy is based on livestock, agriculture and rural tourism

*Aran is a  semi-autonomous territorial entity within Catalonia; governed by a General Council established in 1991. The main parties are Unity of Aran (UA, local chapter of the PSC) and Aranese Democratic Convergence (CDA, it was the local chapter of CDC). There's also local chapter of ERC called Occitan Republican Left (ERO)

 The Aranese General Council has 13 seats allocated in 6 wards (terçons) with 1, 2; 3 or 4 members. The result of the 2019 elections was 9 councilors for the UA (¡ed by incumbent Sindic d'Aran Francés Boya) and 4 councilors for the CDA (!ed by former Sindic Carles Barrera) . Amassa Aran, led by the occitan nationalist and former CUP deputy Mireia Boya, came on third place.

https://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eleccions_al_Consell_General_d%27Aran_de_2019
.

[Velasco]

There was certain expectation around the words of king Felipe in his traditional Christmas Eve speech. People speculated whether he would make veiled or more explicit mentions to his father's behaviour

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-12-25/king-felipe-vi-ethical-principles-are-above-all-other-considerations-including-personal-or-family-ones.html

Moral and ethical principles “are an obligation for everyone without exception” and “are above all other considerations, including personal or family ones.” Those were the words uttered by Spain’s King Felipe VI on Thursday night during his televised Christmas Eve speech, in a veiled reference to the allegations of financial wrongdoing that have been mounting against his father, former monarch Juan Carlos I. The king dedicated just 87 words to the issue from a total of 1,697, the longest Christmas speech so far of his reign. The majority of the text was aimed at transmitting encouragement to a society after the suffering caused this year by the coronavirus pamic, with Felipe calling for a “great national effort” to overcome the consequences of the health crisis.  

PSOE backs this speech*, among other things because its contents were supervised by the government and negotiated between deputy PM Carmen Calvo and the royal household. The support of PP, Vox and Cs to the monarch is taken for granted. However, Unidas Podemos and the peripheral nationalists criticize that Felipe was not explicit enough with regard to his father Juan Carlos. Different opinions on the King's speech enlarge distance between PSOE and UP, entitles elDiario.es

*EDIT: PSOE backs this speech officially, bi
Ut apparently some ministers and party members complain privately because the king is not taking enough steps and the monarchy splits the PSOE in two

The opinion in the tweet posted below is more or less coincident with mine,  but on the other hand my criticism does not entail I endorse Podemos on this (the strategy is not paying off and we are not even close to proclaim a republic). The main issue should be demanding transparency and accountability to the head of state and not sterile discussions between monarchists and republicans

https://twitter.com/Guerraeterna/status/1342202447163437057?s=19

[Former President tack50]

Given the current rethoric and debate about the monarchy, I wonder if a constitutional amendment to repeal immunity would be able to pass in the nearby future.

Cs has at times paid some lip service to such a reform, and I imagine all the secessionists as well as PSOE/UP would support such a reform. Not like it matters since PP+Vox alone have just barely enough MPs to block even the smallest of constitutional reforms (reforming the monarchy requires 234 votes to even begin the process; all non PP/Vox parties hold only 209).

To be fair an argument I've seen from some right wingers seems to be along the lines of "I am in favour of a Republic, but I am not in favour of Pablo Iglesias' Democratic Bolivarian Republic of Spain". Which seems like a very cheap excuse to me but still.

However I could easily see Cs using an argument like that to vote down such a reform.

[windjammer]

Juan Carlos should be prosecuted. But Felipe is innocent and he shouldn't paid for his father's crimes.
Long live King Felipe and long live the monarchy.