Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Skye]

Just kill me.

[Former President tack50]

Nice that my region is the only one that won't have a curfew, though I fear that just means we will have it later.

Still the islands have been doing pretty good so hopefully we won't need it. Ironically I am somewhat worried about tourists coming here since Europe is in horrible shape, there should be tons of controls in place.

[Niemeyerite]

Nice that my region is the only one that won't have a curfew, though I fear that just means we will have it later.

Still the islands have been doing pretty good so hopefully we won't need it. Ironically I am somewhat worried about tourists coming here since Europe is in horrible shape, there should be tons of controls in place.

Don't be too hopeful. When you start fearing the cases are increasing it's already too late 😂

But at least you don't have a crazy, stupid person in charge like we do here in Madrid. Keep safe!

[Former President tack50]

On that note, here is a ranking of the COVID performance by autonomous community. I used the same methodology I used for the countries ranking I did a while back.

Basically, take Cases/100k as a % of the national average and Deaths/100k as a % of the national average; and then average the 2.

So, here it goes. This even divides quite well into tiers! Colours represent the party in power regionally.

Madrid
Madrid: 202%

Very bad
La Rioja: 175%
Castille La Mancha: 175%
Navarra: 165%
Castille-Leon: 163%
Aragon: 163%

Worse than the national average
Basque Country: 121%
Catalonia: 109%

Better than the national average
Extremadura: 77%

Very good
Melilla: 63%
Cantabria: 62%
Murcia: 57%
Balearic Islands: 54%
Valencia: 47%
Andalucia: 47%
Asturias: 46%
Galicia: 45%
Ceuta: 41%

Canary Islands
Canary Islands: 26%

[BigSerg]

Lol, it's obviously a smear campaign.

https://twitter.com/GirautaOficial/status/1320358681641422848?s=20
(Spanish public radio and television service)

[Estrella]

Lol, it's obviously a smear campaign.

https://twitter.com/GirautaOficial/status/1320358681641422848?s=20
(Spanish public radio and television service)

Guess it was just a question of time when Spanish right turns into crazy and stupid quasi-Republicans. They already have the ideological extremism and now also persecution complex. I wonder what comes next.

[Former President tack50]

Lol, it's obviously a smear campaign.

https://twitter.com/GirautaOficial/status/1320358681641422848?s=20
(Spanish public radio and television service)

I don't even know what you are trying to say by this. Taking Girauta's tweet at face value; I don't think anyone, not even Vox, would support outright closing down RTVE. I have a hard time imagining even privatizing RTVE; it fulfills several roles that wouldn't be served by private channels.

Even if we restrict ourselves to TV, TVE has channels that aren't replicated elsewhere like 24h (which is still the only 24/7 news station in Spain, bias or not), TDP (niche sports), most content in La 2 or even Clan to an extent (which has a niche in "small" children aged like 3-7; compared to Disney Channel and Boing catering to a slightly older audience of like 7-13 year olds). La 1 is the iffiest one and even it works by puglishing several Spanish TV series and what not (though it has the weakest argument)

Plus, do we really need Atresmedia or Mediaset controlling our TV even more?

As for bias, well, may I remind you that TVE has always been biased towards the party in government. The most infamous right wing bias example is the "ce ce o o" thing during the Aznar years. And of course there were tons of examples during the González and Rajoy eras.

[mileslunn]

What are odds budget fails.  I believe sticking points are rent as Podemos want immediate action on that as well as smaller regionalist party but PSOE reluctant.  On tax hikes on high incomes, my understanding is both parties favour it but debate over timing.  PSOE wants to wait until economy recovers and this year limit it to only those over 300,000 Euros (which is largely symbolic as I believe something like 0.1% of Spaniards make over that so not a lot of revenue) while Podemos initially wanted it on every one over 130,000 Euros, but now willing to settle at 200,000 Euros.  Also haven't said if hike will by the full 4 points as promised or a smaller amount.  C's I believe okay with supporting budget but are opposed to tax hikes, but would reluctantly accept on high incomes if cut for middle class.  So what are thoughts on this.  I doubt it triggers an election, but could be delayed I suppose.

[BigSerg]

What are odds budget fails.  I believe sticking points are rent as Podemos want immediate action on that as well as smaller regionalist party but PSOE reluctant.  On tax hikes on high incomes, my understanding is both parties favour it but debate over timing.  PSOE wants to wait until economy recovers and this year limit it to only those over 300,000 Euros (which is largely symbolic as I believe something like 0.1% of Spaniards make over that so not a lot of revenue) while Podemos initially wanted it on every one over 130,000 Euros, but now willing to settle at 200,000 Euros.  Also haven't said if hike will by the full 4 points as promised or a smaller amount.  C's I believe okay with supporting budget but are opposed to tax hikes, but would reluctantly accept on high incomes if cut for middle class.  So what are thoughts on this.  I doubt it triggers an election, but could be delayed I suppose.

Mmm, no.

"The president of Cs, Inés Arrimadas, has stated that her party defends policies "very different" from those of Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) and EH Bildu and therefore does not believe that the next General Budgets of the State (PGE) can be approved with the votes of these three formations at once"

https://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-arrimadas-no-imagina-presupuestos-aprobados-votos-cs-erc-bildu-sanchez-tendra-elegir-20201026114249.html

[Velasco]

Also haven't said if hike will by the full 4 points as promised or a smaller amount.  C's I believe okay with supporting budget but are opposed to tax hikes, but would reluctantly accept on high incomes if cut for middle class.  So what are thoughts on this.  I doubt it triggers an election, but could be delayed I suppose.

Mmm, no.

"The president of Cs, Inés Arrimadas, has stated that her party defends policies "very different" from those of Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) and EH Bildu and therefore does not believe that the next General Budgets of the State (PGE) can be approved with the votes of these three formations at once"

https://www.europapress.es/nacional/noticia-arrimadas-no-imagina-presupuestos-aprobados-votos-cs-erc-bildu-sanchez-tendra-elegir-20201026114249.html

ERC spokespersons have stated the same about Cs

The issue is that there are two alternative majorities to pass the budget. Both involve the parties that voted "Yes" to the investiture of Sánchez (PSOE, UP, PNV, MP, assorted regionalists). Given these parties fall short, there are two ways to complete a majority or to pass the budget in a second vote. The first way is that ERC -and incidentally EH Bildu- vote "yes" or abstain. Both ERC and Bildu abstained in the investiture, enabling Sánchez to pass in a second vote. The second way is that Cs reaches an agreement with the socialists and supports the budget. Additionally the government could count with four additional votes from the PDeCAT deputies (split from JxCAT), which are open to negotiate with Sánchez (this move alongside the Vox's motion might favor ERC's support)

The different combinations give the government more margin for manoeuvre. It looks rather impossible an agreement involving Cs alongside ERC and Bildu, though

The government will approve the budget draft tomorrow in a cabinet meeting

[mileslunn]

I believe rent and raise in taxes on high incomes is the dispute.  PSOE favours both but believes now is not time and wants to postpone while Podemos wants them now.  I believe on high incomes, PSOE is open to raising them, but only on those over 300,000 Euros, not 130,000 as originally planned or 200,000 Euros as Podemos wants.  That being said so few make over 300,000 Euros largely symbolic so basically a few to symbolically give Podemos their desire to tax rich more but also ensure it has limited impact. 

Also most in high incomes usually speak a foreign language and due to free mobility in EU can just easily re-locate.  Although in Madrid where the financial sector is, their top rates are quite low compared to most of Western Europe and even after hike will only be in line with Germany, still below neighbouring Portugal and France.  Some autonomous states like Catalonia a bit higher, but my understanding is even after hikes, all will still be below both Portugal and France, but some of the higher ones well above Italy and Germany. 

For rents not an expert on that, but I thought real estate in Spain was quite cheap, at least compared to elsewhere in Europe.  A big reason many British retirees buy property there.  Still this seems an issue in a lot of large cities, especially for millennials.

[Velasco]

Spain planning tax hikes for highest earners as part of expansive budget

https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-10-27/spain-planning-tax-hikes-for-highest-earners-as-part-of-expansive-budget.html

 Spain’s governing coalition partners have agreed on a set of tax hikes for high-income individuals and corporations that will affect a small number of taxpayers but which is meant to carry political and symbolic value.

The extra revenue is meant to help fund an ultra-expansive budget to lift Spain out of a deep crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, with a special focus on shoring up the healthcare system. The budget plan contains a record public investment of nearly €239.8 billion.

After reaching their own internal deal, the partners in the minority government, led by the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the leftist Unidas Podemos, must now seek wider congressional support for their blueprint.

“This is a progressive budget; it is exceptional due to the situation and because of the amount of public investment involved,” said Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE. “The first goal is to rebuild what the crisis took away from us due to the pandemic. The second is to modernize our productive model. And the third is to shore up our welfare state.” (...)  

PSOE and UP have also agreed measures to limit rent prices, as well as measures to fix the problems in the implementation of the Minimum Living  Income (IMV in Spanish).  Very few applicants have received the IMV so far due to bureaucratic problems, which reveal that it's neccessary a public administration reform involving computerization and more funds. New taxes on sugary drinks were announced weeks ago...

[mileslunn]

Looks like on tax hike, smaller than initial plan, but my understanding is PSOE wants to postpone tax hikes until economy recovers so if I am not mistaken isn't tax hike on high earners supposed to be larger once economy recovers and this was more just symbolic to get Podemos on side?

[Velasco]

Looks like on tax hike, smaller than initial plan, but my understanding is PSOE wants to postpone tax hikes until economy recovers so if I am not mistaken isn't tax hike on high earners supposed to be larger once economy recovers and this was more just symbolic to get Podemos on side?

Possibly. It's obvious that PSOE and UP had differences and negotiated until they found a common ground. But the parties are not homogeneous blocks and there are differences between cabinet members from the 'socialist side' of the governmebt (PSOE members and independents). Economy and Finance ministers (Nadia Calviño and María Jesús Montero) tend to be more cautious and reluctant with tax hikes and expansive policies, while other cabinet members are sometimes closer to their colleagues from the UP side.

At first sight the policies agreed in the budget plan make less posible a deal with Cs. Even though there's an obvious hostility between Cs and UP, both Pedro Sánchez and Inés Arrimadas have a tactic and strategic interest to leave the door open for negotiations. ERC would be a more fitting option, but there's a political quagmire that complicates everything. Anyway signals point to a relative deescalation of conflicts and political tension at this stage of the pandemic. We'll see

[Former President tack50]

I am personally very pessimistic at a deal with ERC, considering the Catalan elections are just around the corner and what not.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/EU_Social/status/1323608078961565696?s=20

[Former President tack50]

Haha, take that Greece!

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

The Government easily won a vote to start the process of passing the 2021 budget, gaining the backing of both C’s and the left-wing nationalists (ERC and Bildu), though this simultaneous support is almost certainly not going to repeat itself in the final vote (which will probably take place in January) and PSOE-UP will have to choose between them.

Bildu’s support was especially controversial, since part of the coalition of parties that composes it is a successor to Herri Batasuna, the former political wing of the Basque separatist terrorist organization ETA. Vox, unsurprisingly, lambasted the Government and accused it of cooperating with terrorists, while Pablo Casado attacked the PSOE affirming that the agreement was proof that Pablo Iglesias is really in charge.

There was also some pushback from inside the PSOE itself, with regional president Guillermo Fernández-Vara from Extremadura saying the inclusion of Bildu was “nauseating” and Castilla La Mancha regional president Emiliano García Page going as far as echoing the PP’s claims that Podemos is setting the Government’s agenda.

Personally, I believe it is good that Bildu is finally being included in the democratic system, ignoring hundreds of thousands of Basques who are trying to make their voices heard is not fair to them nor beneficial to the country. In fact, we should be very happy that they are doing it through ballots instead of bullets. Violence could once again become appealing to them if they are constantly blocked from participating in the political process peacefully.

I understand the large segment of Spaniards who despise Bildu and everything it stands for, but if we want true reconciliation, we have to learn to live with each other. To keep loathing them is going to backfire if their objective is to mantain Spanish unity, it will only make Basques feel more excluded and increase separatist sentiment.

[BigSerg]

The Government easily won a vote to start the process of passing the 2021 budget, gaining the backing of both C’s and the left-wing nationalists (ERC and Bildu), though this simultaneous support is almost certainly not going to repeat itself in the final vote (which will probably take place in January) and PSOE-UP will have to choose between them.

Bildu’s support was especially controversial, since part of the coalition of parties that composes it is a successor to Herri Batasuna, the former political wing of the Basque separatist terrorist organization ETA. Vox, unsurprisingly, lambasted the Government and accused it of cooperating with terrorists, while Pablo Casado attacked the PSOE affirming that the agreement was proof that Pablo Iglesias is really in charge.

There was also some pushback from inside the PSOE itself, with regional president Guillermo Fernández-Vara from Extremadura saying the inclusion of Bildu was “nauseating” and Castilla La Mancha regional president Emiliano García Page going as far as echoing the PP’s claims that Podemos is setting the Government’s agenda.

Personally, I believe it is good that Bildu is finally being included in the democratic system, ignoring hundreds of thousands of Basques who are trying to make their voices heard is not fair to them nor beneficial to the country. In fact, we should be very happy that they are doing it through ballots instead of bullets. Violence could once again become appealing to them if they are constantly blocked from participating in the political process peacefully.

I understand the large segment of Spaniards who despise Bildu and everything it stands for, but if we want true reconciliation, we have to learn to live with each other. To keep loathing them is going to backfire if their objective is to mantain Spanish unity, it will only make Basques feel more excluded and increase separatist sentiment.

https://twitter.com/Proserpinasb/status/1327372378289082369?s=20

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, I mostly agree with Mimoha here. I personally do not like Bildu. However, I am also not too worried about it. I'd rather not have the Sanchez government do deals with them but I the math is what it is, and unfortunately it seems having support from both ERC and Cs will be impossible.

As for the ETA victims, of course one of the concessions has to be that Bildu condemns violence more emphatically. I think they already do, but still probably not enough.

In a way, I consider Bildu roughly an equivalent to Sinn Fein, another party I absolutely despise.

To be honest, I have no idea how PSOE should deal with Bildu. On one hand they are a party whose voters and seats are just as valid as those of Vox. This is no longer the 80s and 90s when the HB=ETA association was clear and ETA was murdering dozens of people every year. Bildu is a coalition of several parties, some who are spiritual successors to the old Batasuna; but others were in opposition to it and clearly condemned ETA's terrorism in the 90s and 00s (Aralar, Eusko Alkartasuna).

On the other hand, it is still an extremely hard pill to swallow for PSOE to negotiate with a party that, only 12 years ago, had some of its members murdering your own representatives in cold blood.

[Velasco]

It's a question of maths: ERC+Bildu have 18 seats and Cs only has 10.  Additionally the former are not compatible with the latter and UP has a strong interest in marginalizing Cs.

The diminished Arrimadas gang is struggling to survive as a centrist party, able to make deals with PP and PSOE. The PSOE and Pedro Sánchez would like to include Cs in the budget negotiation, in order to strengthen the parliamentary majority. Cs could be interesting as a future ally of the socialists, providing the party can survive and they have the mumbers (again). Bildu, ERC and UP don't want that Cs svsurvive for different reasons. Finally, the former leader Albert Rivera made a statement yesterday or the day before, which is a thinly veiled attack to his heir and former deputy leader Inés Arrimadas. Rivera, who is the main culprit for the Cs debacle six months after its heyday, says that there's no dignity in making deals with the Public Enemy Number One, who is Pedro Sánchez. It's been a hard week for Arrimadas

We all know that Bildu is the heir of the political wing of ETA. For sure the Otegi folks need to take more steps away from that past, but EH Bildu it's a legal party because they made the decision to engage in politics discarding the "armed struggle".  A vote for EH Bildu weighs exactly the same as a vote for any other party, including the ideological heirs of the Franco regime. ETA killed 800+ during its 50 years of existence, in the last decades of the Franco dictatorship and the democratic period afterwards. The Franco regime killed tens of hundreds of thousands. Consider that the same people crying it's an outrage to make deals with separatists and heirs of ETA usually remains silent about the deals with Francoists.

[BigSerg]

It's a question of maths: ERC+Bildu have 18 seats and Cs only has 10.  Additionally the former are not compatible with the latter and UP has a strong interest in marginalizing Cs.

The diminished Arrimadas gang is struggling to survive as a centrist party, able to make deals with PP and PSOE. The PSOE and Pedro Sánchez would like to include Cs in the budget negotiation, in order to strengthen the parliamentary majority. Cs could be interesting as a future ally of the socialists, providing the party can survive and they have the mumbers (again). Bildu, ERC and UP don't want that Cs svsurvive for different reasons. Finally, the former leader Albert Rivera made a statement yesterday or the day before, which is a thinly veiled attack to his heir and former deputy leader Inés Arrimadas. Rivera, who is the main culprit for the Cs debacle six months after its heyday, says that there's no dignity in making deals with the Public Enemy Number One, who is Pedro Sánchez. It's been a hard week for Arrimadas

We all know that Bildu is the heir of the political wing of ETA. For sure the Otegi folks need to take more steps away from that past, but EH Bildu it's a legal party because they made the decision to engage in politics discarding the "armed struggle".  A vote for EH Bildu weighs exactly the same as a vote for any other party, including the ideological heirs of the Franco regime. ETA killed 800+ during its 50 years of existence, in the last decades of the Franco dictatorship and the democratic period afterwards. The Franco regime killed tens of hundreds of thousands. Consider that the same people crying it's an outrage to make deals with separatists and heirs of ETA usually remains silent about the deals with Francoists.

Just when I thought you couldn't go any lower...
https://twitter.com/carmencalvo_/status/1132973408935927809?s=20
https://twitter.com/rimbaudarth/status/1326979813689712647?s=20

[Velasco]

It's important to know that the votes of EH Bildu are not neccessary for a majority. The parties that voted "yes" to the investiture of Sánchez add 167 sests, which is 9 seats short of a majority. The key parties to form a majority are ERC (13} and Cs (10). EH Bildu has only 5 seats and plays a minor role in the parliamentary arithmetic. Possibly the Bildu folks announced their probable support to discourage negotiations with Cs, which is in the UP but not in the PSOE interest. The socialists are not in a position to reject Bildu, which is usually alligned with ERC, but I don't think they were looking after the Otegi bunch

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, I think the Bildu active support was not negotiated by PSOE (maybe by UP, but even that's far from certain)

In fact, their support almost feels to me as a blank cheque lol.

It's not like the Navarra "big brain" maths to get Chivite elected regional premier, where GBai negotiated with Bildu to abstain while PSOE negotiated with GBai or something like that.

[Velasco]

Yeah, I think the Bildu active support was not negotiated by PSOE (maybe by UP, but even that's far from certain)

In fact, their support almost feels to me as a blank cheque lol.

It's not like the Navarra "big brain" maths to get Chivite elected regional premier, where GBai negotiated with Bildu to abstain while PSOE negotiated with GBai or sothing like that.

It's not exactly a blank cheque, but it's not that PSOE and UP sold themselves to Otegi. Pablo Iglesias celebrated the Otegi statements, because the Bildu support helps UP to keep Cs out of the deal. I don't know if Bildu and UP negotiated anything (probably not), but Iglesias has good contacts with separatist and nationalist parties and he talks with everybody, with the likely exception of Santiago Abascal

PSOE and GBai form a coalition government in Navarra. They need to negotiate that Bildu votes in favour or abstain, because NA+ is not going to help to pass the budget. That's not strictly necessary in the Congress of Deputies. But again we have a case of double standards. The Spanish Right demonizes the "heirs of ETA" and the " communists*" (saying that Podemos us "populist" and "Bolivarian" is old-fashioned, apparently), while bleaches the Francoist agents of Trump (Casado once said the Vox dudes are "constitutionalists"). I concur that it's positive to normalize Bildu, which has a leftwing platform compatible with other psrties on social and economic issues, regar yo criticize Otegi's ambiguity on other issues related to ETA or the victims (not forgetting on the other side that GAL victims need recognition, too). Anyway there's no big difference between Arnakdi Otegi and Gerry Adams (they are good friends)

* I heard the new PP spokeswoman Cuca Gamarra arguing that limiting rent prices is a communist measure, so I guess Berlin has gone back behind the Iron Curtain