Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[CumbrianLefty]

It's all over

The motion fails with the only support of the 52 Vox deputies

As a certain "friend" of theirs might say - SAD!

[Velasco]

It's all over

The motion fails with the only support of the 52 Vox deputies

As a certain "friend" of theirs might say - SAD!

Forgot to say there were 298 votes against and no abstentions

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

You come at the king, you best not miss. Or, you know, whatever.

[Velasco]

Velasco sinceramente pienso que deberías guardarte tus "opiniones" infundadas, comprendo que es fácil decir cosas obviamente falsas ya que nadie aquí tiene conocimiento de España, además de otros 2 usuarios izquierdistas. Pero me preguntó si tú entusiasmo contra el acoso se aplicaba contra lo vivido por Cifuentes y Rita Barbera (¡Fue a una peluquería madre de dios!), los llamados "escraches" democráticos. Y sobre el "supuesto muchísimo" ya ni hablar, por fortuna muchos recordamos el "la azotaria hasta que sangrase".

Es fácil decir lo que quieras cuando nadie te replica nada pero para alguien que tiene el suficiente conocimiento, simplemente suenas como un hipócrita (Y si, el mensaje está en español porque es dirigido a ti y si realmente eres español, lo comprenderás sin problema).

Lo de "crisis nacional" sobra, en especial considerando los ataques de podemos a Rajoy con la pandemia de Ébola o los del Psoe a Aznar en los atentados del 11 de marzo.

No te confundas y creas que me falta capacidad para discutir con personas ideológicamente contrarias, y además sin recurrir al insulto. Cualquiera que visite las redes sociales y lea comentarios de gente de extrema derecha sabe cómo está el patio y cuál es el clima imperante. La gente de izquierdas o independentista que insulta o cae en provocacionesprovocaciones tampoco me inspira demasiado, a decir verdad

Nadie me verá nunca apoyar los "escraches" (una práctica importada de Argentina, por cierto) pero, sinceramente, los ejemplos que mencionas son caricias de monja comparados con el acoso que sufren actualmente Pablo Iglesias e Irene Montero por parte de la extrema derecha. Es intolerable que tengan que aguantar continuamente insultos, amenazas e improperios y que ni siquiera puedan disfrutar de unos días de vacaciones por el odio ideológico de los herederos de Franco. De la misma forma, las alusiones personales de la senadora del PP son repugnantes. Tanto Iglesias como Montero, que en algunos aspectos no son santos de mi devoción, están demostrando un aguante y una contención admirables ante la avalancha de odio.

Echa un vistazo a las intervenciones de Casado e iglesias está mañana y luego vuelve al discurso simplón, incoherente y lleno de odio de Santiago Abascal. Escucha el silencio respetuoso de la bancada de la izquierda cuando hablan Casado y Abascal, a pesar de los insultos. Vuelve después a la intervención de Iglesias y escucha cómo patalean algunos diputados de derechas. El contraste avergonzaria a cualquiera con un mínimo de honestidad intelectual. Y es que ya lo dice Íñigo Errejón, a algunos señoritos de Vox y del PP no les enseñaron modales en sus exclusivos colegios de pago.

No sé cómo se puede poner en duda que atravesamos una crisis global sin precedentes, que está afectando a este país de una forma más intensa que a otros. Lo que se necesita en momentos como estos es unidad de acción y no campañas de desestabilización irresponsables que agitan el odio y las bajas pasiones. Espero que el revolcón parlamentario de hoy tenga consecuencias y cruzo los dedos esperando que noviembre traiga buenas noticias de Estados Unidos

Remember that English is the language of this forum, in case you want to follow this discussion. Some people here is fluent in Spanish or have reading comprehension, but most forum members don't know what are we talking about

[Velasco]

"No Step Backward. The Last Barrier. Vox"

https://twitter.com/vox_es/status/1319301227977580544?s=19

Sorry but this poster has an aged flavor. Spain in Black and White, Civil War, Franco. It scares me

[Skye]

Why do they post stuff that comes across like it was made by edgy 15 year-olds.

[PSOL]

Why do they post stuff that comes across like it was made by edgy 15 year-olds.

Well they need to appeal to the younger demographic somehow.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Why do they post stuff that comes across like it was made by edgy 15 year-olds.

They are political cosplayers.

[Former President tack50]

Why do they post stuff that comes across like it was made by edgy 15 year-olds.

Well they need to appeal to the younger demographic somehow.

Something that goes rather underrated is that Vox is actually quite weak among old people. They seem to peak among the 30-44 demographic.

However Vox also has an extremely strong vote among young men; and in fact Vox won a narrow plurality among said demographic.

I never know how accurate this is and I tend to post it more often than I should tbh, but here is the graph of vote split by age and gender:



Of course, with Vox the big story is actually the huge gender split and not the age split, but a significant age split still exists.

[Velasco]

Santiago Abascal said yesterday that "thousands upon thousands" of women and homosexuals support Vox and not the left. Literally it's true that Vox has thousands of female voters, but all post-election analyses say that Vox is the party with a lowest proportion of female vote (30% or even less). It was somewhat hilarious to see the comments of Vox supporters over that sentence. The question is, what's the relative value of "thousands upon thousands" compared to the millions who are against Vox

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1319358195081437184?s=20
https://www.infobae.com/america/agencias/2020/10/22/espana-suma-21000-casos-nuevos-de-coronavirus-y-155-muertos/

Navarra
La Rioja
Aragón   

All these autonomous communities are controlled by the PSOE and currently have a much worse situation than Madrid (especially Navarra).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Why do they post stuff that comes across like it was made by edgy 15 year-olds.

Well they need to appeal to the younger demographic somehow.

Something that goes rather underrated is that Vox is actually quite weak among old people. They seem to peak among the 30-44 demographic.

However Vox also has an extremely strong vote among young men; and in fact Vox won a narrow plurality among said demographic.

I never know how accurate this is and I tend to post it more often than I should tbh, but here is the graph of vote split by age and gender:

https://s3.eestatic.com/2019/11/16/actualidad/Actualidad_444967936_138163750_1024x576.jpg

Of course, with Vox the big story is actually the huge gender split and not the age split, but a significant age split still exists.

As someone who comes from another Southern European country, gotta say that this graphic is decidedly unsurprising. By the way, is there data on party preference by religious attendance?

[BigSerg]

Why do they post stuff that comes across like it was made by edgy 15 year-olds.

Well they need to appeal to the younger demographic somehow.

Something that goes rather underrated is that Vox is actually quite weak among old people. They seem to peak among the 30-44 demographic.

However Vox also has an extremely strong vote among young men; and in fact Vox won a narrow plurality among said demographic.

I never know how accurate this is and I tend to post it more often than I should tbh, but here is the graph of vote split by age and gender:

https://s3.eestatic.com/2019/11/16/actualidad/Actualidad_444967936_138163750_1024x576.jpg

Of course, with Vox the big story is actually the huge gender split and not the age split, but a significant age split still exists.

As someone who comes from another Southern European country, gotta say that this graphic is decidedly unsurprising. By the way, is there data on party preference by religious attendance?

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/04/19/sepa_usted/1555672471_473310.html

[Former President tack50]

As someone who comes from another Southern European country, gotta say that this graphic is decidedly unsurprising. By the way, is there data on party preference by religious attendance?

Not really, religion is an extremely underrepresented issue on Spanish politics. Still to add to what Sergi said:

With the CIS polls we can get an idea since they have a ton of questions. They are PSOE leaning so the "top line" number will be wrong; but I think the general pattern should still hold.

Anyways, here is the crosstabs chart for the religion question, with people also being asked who they voted for on November 2019; according to the latest CIS poll:

Not sure if the image will display properly



Options from top to bottom:
>Practising Catholic
>Non-Practising Catholic
>Another Religion
>Agnostic
>Indifferent/Non-believer
>Atheist
>Refuse to Answer

Excluding the parties with super small sample sizes, my conclusions would be:

• PSOE seems fairly representative of the Spanish population at large
• PP extremely overperforming among religious Catholics
• Vox slightly overperforms among Non-practising Catholics and slightly underperforms among non-religious people
• UP extremely overperforms among agnostics and atheists and underperforms among all Catholics
• Cs overperforms by a lot among Non-practising Catholics, and slightly underperforms among atheists (but interestingly not the other 2 non-religious categories)

So for the question you are going to ask, devout Catholics are a titanium PP demographic

Then again that's definitely at least partially a function of old people being extremely heavily for the 2 traditional parties (PSOE and PP).

[Former President tack50]

Santiago Abascal said yesterday that "thousands upon thousands" of women and homosexuals support Vox and not the left. Literally it's true that Vox has thousands of female voters, but all post-election analyses say that Vox is the party with a lowest proportion of female vote (30% or even less). It was somewhat hilarious to see the comments of Vox supporters over that sentence. The question is, what's the relative value of "thousands upon thousands" compared to the millions who are against Vox

To be fair, for all their talk about feminism and what not, Podemos is the party with the 2nd lowest percentage of female voters.

Honestly for all the talk about young women being super left wing and what not (whether in Spain or abroad); I honestly just think that men are more "extremist" and women are more moderate in their political leanings; whether on the left or on the right.

[BigSerg]

As someone who comes from another Southern European country, gotta say that this graphic is decidedly unsurprising. By the way, is there data on party preference by religious attendance?

Not really, religion is an extremely underrepresented issue on Spanish politics. Still to add to what Sergi said:

With the CIS polls we can get an idea since they have a ton of questions. They are PSOE leaning so the "top line" number will be wrong; but I think the general pattern should still hold.

Anyways, here is the crosstabs chart for the religion question, with people also being asked who they voted for on November 2019; according to the latest CIS poll:

Not sure if the image will display properly



Options from top to bottom:
>Practising Catholic
>Non-Practising Catholic
>Another Religion
>Agnostic
>Indifferent/Non-believer
>Atheist
>Refuse to Answer

Excluding the parties with super small sample sizes, my conclusions would be:

• PSOE seems fairly representative of the Spanish population at large
• PP extremely overperforming among religious Catholics
• Vox slightly overperforms among Non-practising Catholics and slightly underperforms among non-religious people
• UP extremely overperforms among agnostics and atheists and underperforms among all Catholics
• Cs overperforms by a lot among Non-practising Catholics, and slightly underperforms among atheists (but interestingly not the other 2 non-religious categories)

So for the question you are going to ask, devout Catholics are a titanium PP demographic

Then again that's definitely at least partially a function of old people being extremely heavily for the 2 traditional parties (PSOE and PP).

"Catholic voters do not decide by faith, Catholic voters say they decide at the ballot box on the economic proposals of the parties (74.8%), social policies (59%), the unity of Spain (56.8%) or family policies (55.7%)".

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Excluding the parties with super small sample sizes, my conclusions would be:

• PSOE seems fairly representative of the Spanish population at large
• PP extremely overperforming among religious Catholics
• Vox slightly overperforms among Non-practising Catholics and slightly underperforms among non-religious people
• UP extremely overperforms among agnostics and atheists and underperforms among all Catholics
• Cs overperforms by a lot among Non-practising Catholics, and slightly underperforms among atheists (but interestingly not the other 2 non-religious categories)

So for the question you are going to ask, devout Catholics are a titanium PP demographic

Then again that's definitely at least partially a function of old people being extremely heavily for the 2 traditional parties (PSOE and PP).

I was mainly trying to see if my priors ("practicing Catholics" being Titanium Major Parties with a heavy edge for PP and "non-practicing Catholics" being Vox's best group) were correct and they seem to have been confimed.

I was also hoping for data where religious attendance groups are broken by party and not vice versa (i.e. data like what 7sergi9 posted)

[Skye]

Why do they post stuff that comes across like it was made by edgy 15 year-olds.

Well they need to appeal to the younger demographic somehow.

Something that goes rather underrated is that Vox is actually quite weak among old people. They seem to peak among the 30-44 demographic.

However Vox also has an extremely strong vote among young men; and in fact Vox won a narrow plurality among said demographic.

I never know how accurate this is and I tend to post it more often than I should tbh, but here is the graph of vote split by age and gender:



Of course, with Vox the big story is actually the huge gender split and not the age split, but a significant age split still exists.

Am I missing something here? All of the parties except the PSOE have a lower % of the vote than what they obtained.

[Former President tack50]

Why do they post stuff that comes across like it was made by edgy 15 year-olds.

Well they need to appeal to the younger demographic somehow.

Something that goes rather underrated is that Vox is actually quite weak among old people. They seem to peak among the 30-44 demographic.

However Vox also has an extremely strong vote among young men; and in fact Vox won a narrow plurality among said demographic.

I never know how accurate this is and I tend to post it more often than I should tbh, but here is the graph of vote split by age and gender:



Of course, with Vox the big story is actually the huge gender split and not the age split, but a significant age split still exists.

Am I missing something here? All of the parties except the PSOE have a lower % of the vote than what they obtained.

I have absolutely no idea why El Español put the data like that.

[Velasco]

Santiago Abascal said yesterday that "thousands upon thousands" of women and homosexuals support Vox and not the left. Literally it's true that Vox has thousands of female voters, but all post-election analyses say that Vox is the party with a lowest proportion of female vote (30% or even less). It was somewhat hilarious to see the comments of Vox supporters over that sentence. The question is, what's the relative value of "thousands upon thousands" compared to the millions who are against Vox

To be fair, for all their talk about feminism and what not, Podemos is the party with the 2nd lowest percentage of female voters.

Honestly for all the talk about young women being super left wing and what not (whether in Spain or abroad); I honestly just think that men are more "extremist" and women are more moderate in their political leanings; whether on the left or on the right.

I know that Podenios has the second lowest percentage of female vote (it's a bit higher among young women anyway). Women as a whole support traditional parties (PP and PSOE) in a higher degree than men. The PSOE usually appears as the first party in all age groups, except among the women over 65 where the PP is highly competitive.

The PSOE is a party with a feminst tradition and feminist stances anyway. Actually there's a competition between PSOE and UP for the hegemony in the feminist movement. It was not easy for the Deputy PM Carmen Calvo to grant the Equality portfolio to Irene Montero. Both women belong to different branches of the feminist movement and their views are not neccessarily the same. Let's say that Calvo is more a 'traditional' feminist and Montero embraces 'intersectionalism'

[Velasco]

Motion of no confidence fails; in a surprise move, Casado launches a scathing attack on Vox

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-10-22/voxs-motion-of-no-confidence-fails-securing-only-the-votes-of-its-own-deputies.html

 At the end of a two-day debate, the motion of no-confidence tabled by far-right party Vox failed on Thursday, as was expected. The group only managed to secure the votes of its own deputies in Congress in its bid to oust Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez from power, with all other parties voting against the initiative. A total of 350 votes were cast, with 52 in favor and 298 against.

Party leader Santiago Abascal, who was the candidate to replace Sánchez, thus obtained the worst result ever from the five motions of no confidence that have been debated in Spain’s Congress of Deputies since the country returned to democracy at the end of the 1970s.

Given the extremely high political tensions in Spanish politics since the coronavirus pandemic took hold, the debates on Wednesday and Thursday were surprisingly controlled, albeit reflecting extremely deep rifts between the groups in Congress.

The big surprise of today was the much-anticipated appearance of Popular Party (PP) leader Pablo Casado. After two years of trying to keep Vox in check, Casado definitely broke off with the far-right group on Thursday, launching a scathing attack on its proposals and its leader, Santiago Abascal (...)  

Vox leader didn't expect Casado's attack, admitting on stage that he was "touched" and "perplexed". It was particularly hard for Abascal to hear Casado telling the Vox leader that the PP provided him a paid employment (with public funds) for 15 years. There is a lot of irritation at the Vox HQs, but there's little room for reprisals given that voters would never forgive that Vox hands the governments of Andalusia and Madrid to the left (the only way to sack Ayuso is that Cs makes a move; I don't see it). The rhetorical rupture between PP (the 'father') and Vox (the radical scion) won't turn into a political divorce.

It was nice to imagine how would a civilized PP look like anyway. Casado made a good speech and won the combat against Abascal. Iglesias, Sanchez. Esteban (PNV) and others made good interventions as well and the climate was not as poisonous as I was fearing. For once the cordon sanitaire worked in Spain, but I'm not sure at all this is going to set a precedent

(Btw the sentence in the Vox tweet I shared yesterday is apparently a Bruce Lee quote)

[mileslunn]

Why do they post stuff that comes across like it was made by edgy 15 year-olds.

Well they need to appeal to the younger demographic somehow.

Something that goes rather underrated is that Vox is actually quite weak among old people. They seem to peak among the 30-44 demographic.

However Vox also has an extremely strong vote among young men; and in fact Vox won a narrow plurality among said demographic.

I never know how accurate this is and I tend to post it more often than I should tbh, but here is the graph of vote split by age and gender:



Of course, with Vox the big story is actually the huge gender split and not the age split, but a significant age split still exists.

Am I missing something here? All of the parties except the PSOE have a lower % of the vote than what they obtained.

Not really surprise.  I've found elsewhere, right wing populists tend to do well amongst young males but struggle with young females.  Many young males are angry at poor prospects and right has tapped into this well.  Females tend to express frustration different way.  Also many under 30 are unmarried and if unmarried larger gender gap then when married as influenced by spouse.

[Velasco]

CEO poll: Parliament of Catalonia

ERC 35/36 seats (23.4%)
JxCAT 31/32 seats (19.4%)
PSC 24/25 seats (18.0%)
Cs 16/17 seats (12.0%)
ECP 8/9 srats (7.6%)
PP 7/8 seats (6.0%)
CUP 6/7 seats (4.9%)
VOX 4/6 seats (4.5%)

ERC and Junts on the brink of majority eithout the CUP. Pro-independence parties wouldn't cross the 50% threshold (other recent polls say they will)

Spain is on rhe brink of another state of alarm. Eight regions, including Catalonia and Basque Country, called the central government to implement that measure. State of alarm is a tool that allows the regions to restrict mobility. It doesn't imply neccessarily lockdowns. Cases are rising everywhere except in the Canaries

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-23/spain-heads-toward-another-state-of-alarm.html

[BigSerg]

CEO poll: Parliament of Catalonia

ERC 35/36 seats (23.4%)
JxCAT 31/32 seats (19.4%)
PSC 24/25 seats (18.0%)
Cs 16/17 seats (12.0%)
ECP 8/9 srats (7.6%)
PP 7/8 seats (6.0%)
CUP 6/7 seats (4.9%)
VOX 4/6 seats (4.5%)

ERC and Junts on the brink of majority eithout the CUP. Pro-independence parties wouldn't cross the 50% threshold (other recent polls say they will)

Spain is on rhe brink of another state of alarm. Eight regions, including Catalonia and Basque Country, called the central government to implement that measure. State of alarm is a tool that allows the regions to restrict mobility. It doesn't imply neccessarily lockdowns. Cases are rising everywhere except in the Canaries

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-23/spain-heads-toward-another-state-of-alarm.html

wow vox+pp = 10.5%

[Velasco]

It's official: we are under state of alarm again

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-25/spanish-prime-minister-approves-new-state-of-alarm-with-plans-to-keep-it-in-place-until-may.html

The Spanish Cabinet on Sunday morning approved a new national state of alarm for the country, aimed at giving Spain’s regional governments the legal framework they need to limit mobility – in particular nighttime socialising – in a bid to combat the second wave of the coronavirus.

 The government is introducing an obligatory curfew for the entire country from 11pm to 6am, with regional premiers having a margin of one hour to bring forward or back the curfew times. They will not, however, be able to scrap the measure altogether.

Regions will also have the possibility of restricting the entrance to and exit from their territories unless this is for essential reasons such as going to work or to get to the doctor. This would allow regions to close their borders should they have a neighboring territory that is particularly hard hit by the virus. This is an idea that had been floated in the past by the regions that border Madrid, but until now was impossible to implement.

The decree will not see the closure of Spain’s borders, as was the case during the first wave of the pandemic. There are also exceptions, with the Canary Islands – the Spanish region that currently has the best coronavirus data – exempted from the nighttime curfew in a bid to aid the tourism sector. The text also limits social meetings between citizens to six people for the entire country.