Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

Worth noting Madrid is one of the regions of Spain that, even if it calls a snap election, the new parliament's term will be shortened to whenever the current parliament would expire.

So while Ayuso could call a snap election now, she'd still need to face the voters in 2023. Which is kind of pointless imo but whatever.

Calling elections would make sense in order to prevent that Cs supports a no confidence motion against Isabel Diaz Ayuso. Ignacio Aguado and Cs are very uncomfortable, but they don't want a snap election and try to appease Ayuso. On the other hand, I don't believe in a PP landslide because I'm not Paco Marhuenda. I think the political climate favors Rocio Monasterio.

I hear the no confidence motion sponsored by VOX against Pedro Sánchez is scheduled on October 21 and 22. PP and Cs won't support it. The far-right party aims to capitalize the fear, unrest and increasing polarization

[Former President tack50]

On some news, the biggest government initiative now seems to be something that should be very relatable to our US posters: Court packing

The Sanchez government is preparing a reform of the current mechanism to name part of the "General Council of the Judiciary", which in turn names the justices of the Supreme Court and a part of the Constitutional court.

Basically up until now, based off a 1985 law, naming those justices requires a 3/5 majority. However PP has deliberately deadlocked the negotiations for 2 years now, so that the Council from the Rajoy era, with its conservative majority, can keep naming conservative justices.

The reform is very simple and will basically reduce the required majority from 3/5 to 50%+1, so PP would not be necessary anymore.

https://www.vozpopuli.com/espana/reforma-poder-judicial_0_1400560520.html

Tbh I might be slightly biased here for once. I do think it is kind of worrying but since PP has repeatedly blocked negotiations I understand that the government has no alternative, even if it has to go with a Poland/Hungary style solution. It worries me a bit but I understand why it is being pursued.

I do wonder if the EU will prosecute Spain (in fact some Polish politician openly asked that lol).

[Zinneke]

Of course the EU will say nothing. The Spanish legal system has been a joke for years and they have said nothing. For the EU the Rule of Law as a concept is the Rule of a certain status quo, roughly what I would describe as ordo-liberal and saving face, with heavy doses of being in the right circles helping your case (which Spain has managed effectively in Brussels). They only care about the Central European countries because it suits certain narratives and it embarrasses the EU Soft Power machine, not because they actually care.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I don't even understand why the EU should consider prosecuting Spain lol.

Who is that Polish politician?

[Former President tack50]

I don't even understand why the EU should consider prosecuting Spain lol.

Who is that Polish politician?

Well the alternative brought up by the opposition is that instead the judiciary should be depoliticized and the Concil of the Judiciary elected by the judges themselves. The problem is that the judges that would do the election are mostly conservatives appointed under Rajoy and who were up for "retention" now but PP has been blocking their renewal.

Indeed not too unlike McConnell blocking the SC justices on the other side of the pond (thankfully the Spanish judiciary is way less politicized than the American one, but it is still not 100% independent from politics)

The thing is that this reform, if passed, would on paper mean that Spain's judiciary would be appointed in a similar-ish manner to those of Poland or Hungary, so that is why they ask if the EU will prosecute Spain.´

Here is the Polish politician in question. He is apparently the "Undersecretary of State of the Polish department of Foreign Affairs", so a very low level job but his tweet got some coverage on right wing Spanish media:

https://twitter.com/paweljabIonski/status/1316291073279434752

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I don't even understand why the EU should consider prosecuting Spain lol.

Who is that Polish politician?

Well the alternative brought up by the opposition is that instead the judiciary should be depoliticized and the Concil of the Judiciary elected by the judges themselves. The problem is that the judges that would do the election are mostly conservatives appointed under Rajoy and who were up for "retention" now but PP has been blocking their renewal.

Indeed not too unlike McConnell blocking the SC justices on the other side of the pond (thankfully the Spanish judiciary is way less politicized than the American one, but it is still not 100% independent from politics)

The thing is that this reform, if passed, would on paper mean that Spain's judiciary would be appointed in a similar-ish manner to those of Poland or Hungary, so that is why they ask if the EU will prosecute Spain.

Somehow I have the feeling that the biggest democratic problem in Poland (and especially in Hungary) is not how they choose judges.

[Velasco]

The reform proposed by the government is a terrible idea, but the corporativist solution is equally bad. In the end the main culprit is the PP, which is breaching the Constitución in delaying the replacement if the council members for spurious motivations. However, the government is going to make a big mistake going forward with this proposal .

Spain is by no means comparable to Turkey, Poland or Hungary. That's a nonsense. It's true that most of the members of the judiciary are conservative and there are some ideologybiased elements that have declared war on the government. However, it's worth noting that there are judges regarded conservative that refuse to engage in political wars and try to act with the professionaljty and impartiality they are supposed to have.

Yesterday the Supreme Court confirmed convictions in Gürtel graft case

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-10-14/spains-supreme-court-confirms-convictions-in-gurtel-graft-case.html

confirmed 29 convictions handed down in 2018 against leading members of Gürtel, a corrupt bribes-for-contracts network that operated across six Spanish regions between 1999 and 2005.

Justices have also backed the national High Court (Audiencia Nacional)'s decision declaring the Popular Party (PP) civilly liable in connection with the case, and telling it to return €245,000 obtained through unlawful channels.  

The news is not updated on this point

 But the Supreme Court has also found that the Audiencia Nacional’s wording was “excessive” when it repeatedly mentioned the PP’s “caja B,” a reference to a parallel accounting system allegedly maintained by the conservative party for years.  

Later the Supreme Court released a statement correcting that. The rule does not find "rxcessive" the mebtiobs to the "cala B" (parallel accounting). It' s in ny the separate opinión if one if the justices. However, that apparent mistake was?enough for the PP to launch a counter atrack, claining that the motion if no confidence ahainstMariano Rajoy was based on a false premise. Even Rajoy broke his silence supporting that claim. But leaving aside a separate vote, the rule if Supreme Court does not say a word about the aforementioned "caja B". Ny understanding is that issue is being investigated in a separate case

Ayuso Wars. Lamentable spectacle in Congress; stifling political atmosphere, in the words of Economy minister Nadia Calviño. PP andandVox Vox, alongside the incredible Madrid premier, accuse the government of authoritarianism. If doesn't matter if Paris, Berlín or whatever EU capital implement restrictions with less cases than Madrid.

Health minister Salvador Illa said yesterday the situarlon In the Spain's capital is "worrying, unstable and fragile"

 https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-10-15/spanish-health-minister-on-pandemic-the-situation-is-worrying-unstable-and-fragile.html

Public health is the only thing that is prompting the Spanish government to act, and that is why measures must be taken to avoid new coronavirus infections and flatten the curve. That was the argument cited by the health minister, Salvador Illa, during a session in Spain’s lower house of parliament today to justify the declaration on Friday of a state of alarm in Madrid, despite the fierce opposition of the regional government there to such a move.

Illa was required by the Constitution to appear in the Congress of Deputies in order to explain the decision taken by the coalition government, which is headed up by the Socialist Party (PSOE) and supported by junior partner Unidas Podemos. There was no vote required on the state of alarm in Congress today, but the support of deputies will be needed should the government opt to extend it beyond this initial two-week period (...)

[mileslunn]

Any chance that the budget fails and another election gets triggered (not that it would solve anything though)?

[BigSerg]

I don't even understand why the EU should consider prosecuting Spain lol.

Who is that Polish politician?

Well the alternative brought up by the opposition is that instead the judiciary should be depoliticized and the Concil of the Judiciary elected by the judges themselves. The problem is that the judges that would do the election are mostly conservatives appointed under Rajoy and who were up for "retention" now but PP has been blocking their renewal.

Indeed not too unlike McConnell blocking the SC justices on the other side of the pond (thankfully the Spanish judiciary is way less politicized than the American one, but it is still not 100% independent from politics)

The thing is that this reform, if passed, would on paper mean that Spain's judiciary would be appointed in a similar-ish manner to those of Poland or Hungary, so that is why they ask if the EU will prosecute Spain.´

Here is the Polish politician in question. He is apparently the "Undersecretary of State of the Polish department of Foreign Affairs", so a very low level job but his tweet got some coverage on right wing Spanish media:

https://twitter.com/paweljabIonski/status/1316291073279434752

The situation is not at all comparable to the U.S. Supreme Court. "Progressive judges" mostly support the appointments of conservatives (PP).

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181112/452888446687/pp-y-psoe-pactan-un-cgpj-de-mayoria-progresista-presidido-por-manuel-marchena.html

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/division-bloque-progresista-permitira-judicial-funciones-aprobar-nombramientos-supremo_1_6255845.html

[Former President tack50]

The situation is not at all comparable to the U.S. Supreme Court. "Progressive judges" mostly support the appointments of conservatives (PP).

2018: "PSOE has guaranteed a progressive majority within the judiciary, as confirmed by sources of the Government and PP. The Socialists and their partners in Podemos will have 11 members. The popular ones, only nine"


https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181112/452888446687/pp-y-psoe-pactan-un-cgpj-de-mayoria-progresista-presidido-por-manuel-marchena.html

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/division-bloque-progresista-permitira-judicial-funciones-aprobar-nombramientos-supremo_1_6255845.html

Actually that deal was eventually broken? In fact precisely because PP broke the deals and negotiations (both in 2018 and this summer) the government was forced to do this. And it was PP who broke it

https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20181120/pp-da-roto-pacto-para-renovar-cgpj/1840963.shtml

[BigSerg]

The situation is not at all comparable to the U.S. Supreme Court. "Progressive judges" mostly support the appointments of conservatives (PP).

2018: "PSOE has guaranteed a progressive majority within the judiciary, as confirmed by sources of the Government and PP. The Socialists and their partners in Podemos will have 11 members. The popular ones, only nine"

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/division-bloque-progresista-permitira-judicial-funciones-aprobar-nombramientos-supremo_1_6255845.html
https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181112/452888446687/pp-y-psoe-pactan-un-cgpj-de-mayoria-progresista-presidido-por-manuel-marchena.html

Actually that deal was eventually broken? In fact precisely because PP broke the deals and negotiations (both in 2018 and this summer) the government was forced to do this. And it was PP who broke it

https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20181120/pp-da-roto-pacto-para-renovar-cgpj/1840963.shtml

Well, now explain to me how Spain's situation is comparable to that of the United States. The same "progressive judges" are supporting conservative appointments.

"Two progressive members will vote blank to consider that there should be no appointments in this interim situation, while the rest are willing to agree with the conservative majority, who do not have enough votes to place their candidates"

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/division-bloque-progresista-permitira-judicial-funciones-aprobar-nombramientos-supremo_1_6255845.html

[Former President tack50]

The situation is not at all comparable to the U.S. Supreme Court. "Progressive judges" mostly support the appointments of conservatives (PP).

2018: "PSOE has guaranteed a progressive majority within the judiciary, as confirmed by sources of the Government and PP. The Socialists and their partners in Podemos will have 11 members. The popular ones, only nine"

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/division-bloque-progresista-permitira-judicial-funciones-aprobar-nombramientos-supremo_1_6255845.html
https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181112/452888446687/pp-y-psoe-pactan-un-cgpj-de-mayoria-progresista-presidido-por-manuel-marchena.html

Actually that deal was eventually broken? In fact precisely because PP broke the deals and negotiations (both in 2018 and this summer) the government was forced to do this. And it was PP who broke it

https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20181120/pp-da-roto-pacto-para-renovar-cgpj/1840963.shtml

Well, now explain to me how Spain's situation is comparable to that of the United States. The same "progressive judges" are supporting conservative appointments.

"Two progressive members will vote blank to consider that there should be no appointments in this interim situation, while the rest are willing to agree with the conservative majority, who do not have enough votes to place their candidates"

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/division-bloque-progresista-permitira-judicial-funciones-aprobar-nombramientos-supremo_1_6255845.html

Oh thankfully our judiciary still has some sense of non-partisanship and fairness, even if it is quickly diminishing in an escalating arms race.

I was drawing the comparison because it is still accurate, even if thankfully our judiciary is way less partisan.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1317065497758793728?s=19

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez warned this morning from Brussrls that he will go forward with the judicial reform plans, unless the PP accepts to negotiate the renewal of the General Council

 https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-10-16/spain-defends-its-judicial-reform-plans-despite-warning-from-brussels.html

 
The European Commission has warned Spain against its plan to reform the way appointments are made to its judicial regulatory body, the General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ). Brussels says the move could endanger judicial independence and exacerbate the impression that the Spanish judiciary may be “vulnerable to politicization.”

The Spanish government has not officially responded, but in private it has said that the plan will not be altered. Sources at La Moncloa, the seat of government, said that Brussels has not understood the reform adequately, and that the Spanish executive will clarify how it wants to change the way members are elected to the body that oversees the independence of judges.

 The European Union has long been urging Spain to renew the membership of the CGJP, where appointments have been on hold since 2018 due to to insufficient parliamentary support. Under current legislation, appointments require a qualified majority of three-fifths of lawmakers in both chambers of parliament.

The reform would maintain the need for a three-fifths majority, but add the possibility of a second round of voting 48 hours later that would only require an absolute majority. In the 350-seat Congress, this would mean 176 affirmative votes in the second round instead of 210 required in the first.

The budget plan submitted by the Spanish government forecasts a 33 4 billion increase in revenues, including a 6 8 billion increase in taxt revenues

 https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-10-16/spanish-government-planning-to-increase-taxes-by-6-billion-in-2021.html

After the devastating effects that the coronavirus crisis has had on the Spanish economy, the government is predicting that there will soon be light at the end of the tunnel. According to a budget plan sent to Brussels on Thursday, public revenues will rise by €33.4 billion in 2021 thanks to a sharp rebound in gross domestic product that is forecast, and the introduction of new fiscal measures including a hike on sales tax of sugary drinks and a “plastic tax.”

The pandemic has prompted the Spanish government – a coalition of the Socialist Party (PSOE) and junior partner Unidas Podemos – to put the “extensive fiscal reforms” it had planned on hold. But there will be tax changes next year, as Finance Minister María Jesús Montero had already announced. According to the plan sent to Brussels on Thursday, these will boost revenues by €6.8 billion in 2021 and €2.3 billion in 2022. Not including a new law combatting tax fraud, which is expected to bring in around €830 million a year, revenues will be boosted by around €6 billion in 2021 and €8.4 billion over the two years combined.  

Some experts deem the forecast too optimistic. The deails of the tax changes have not been disclosed yet

On the other hand, there are clouds in the horizon concerning blocks or delays to the EU reconstruction funds. The proposed reform to unblock the renewal of the General Council of the Judiciary comes in a bad moment, as it gives ammunition to the Polish and Hungarian governments in their opposition to be closely scrutinized.

The PP has been campaigning in Brussels against the Spanish government, while refuses to renew the Council and voted against a resolution of the EU parliament in support of the threatened independence of the judiciary in Poland

[Velasco]

Today we'll have a mud shower.

What you need to know about the Vox's motion of no confidence

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-10-21/voxs-motion-of-no-confidence-against-the-government-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-two-day-debate.html

No one knows how far the coronavirus pandemic will spread, and equally no one knows just how high the political tension will rise in Spain. With talk this week of a possible curfew in a bid to curb infection rates, today will see the Congress of Deputies immersed in its everyday battles, albeit dressed up with the solemnity of an extraordinary debate: a motion of no confidence tabled against the prime minister, the fifth in Spain’s democratic history.

After months of fomenting protests and animosity in the streets, far-right party Vox – currently the third-biggest group in Spain’s lower house of parliament – this morning began a debate that will last two days, and will see its deputies take to the podium to proclaim that the group is an alternative to the current government, a coalition of the Socialist Party (PSOE) and junior partner Unidas Podemos. Vox and its leader, Santiago Abascal, are viewing their motion of no confidence as a springboard, but the effects could be contradictory: the vote, which is almost certainly guaranteed to fail due to a lack of support among deputies, is likely to divide the opposition and push the government and its partners – the coalition lacks a working majority in Congress – to put aside their differences.  

Yesterday we had our dose of garbage in parliament with the PP focused on attacking Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero, the Podemos leading couple. The most shameful to hear was a PP female senator asking Equality minister Irene Montero, "from one woman to another", if she was ashamed to share her bed with an alleged male chauvinist (Pablo Iglesias). Montero replied that she shares her bed with whom she wants, because thankfully she's in a position to do so. She added that, due to PP's intolerance and discriminatory policies, many women and non-heterosexuals are not allowed to have a lifetime project.

Add these vicious attacks in parliament with the harassment that Iglesias and Montero have been suffering at their home by far-right activists. When the expression of ideological differences crosses the red line and turns into personal attacks, invasion of privacy and physical bullying, something is going wrong with our democracy.

Right now the rightwing opposition is a serious national problem. On the other hand, this motion of no confidence is actually a dramatization of the contest for the leadership of the Spanish Right. No matter that we are amidst a huge national crisis, we are doomed to suffer another lamentable spectacle with loads of garbage

[CumbrianLefty]

17% for Vox in that poll - thought they were on a downward trend not so long ago?

[Velasco]

17% for Vox in that poll - thought they were on a downward trend not so long ago?

They have reversed the trend in the last months, proving that the climate of polarization favors the extremes. I'd say that the PP is following a wrong strategy, but it' s clear that Pablo Casado and Isabel Diaz Ayuso prefer Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro to Angela Merkel

[Velasco]

By the moment, the parliamentary debate is extremely boring. Santiago Abascal is totally devoid of rhetoric brilliance and does not have a single original idea. Journalists following the whole speech note that Abascal hasn't been interrupted at all during his initial exposition, full of abhorrent statements against immigrants, climate scepticism and the usual hateful things you can hear to Trump or Bolsonaro. This is temarkable, because interruptions from rightwing benches are usual in parliamentary debates in Spain. Errejón went viral recently asking them to keep quite, while saying they haven't been taught good manners in their private schools. The hardest thing against Abascal I heard so far is that the New Canaries deputy called him "fascist". Abascal replied to the EH Bildu spokeswoman reading the names of the 800+ ETA victims. Snooze Fest

Brilliant reply from PNV spokesman Aitor Esteban in 1 minute: "simpleton"

[Velasco]

Some tweeter copy-paste

https://twitter.com/Guerraeterna/status/1318840630240530433?s=19

https://twitter.com/EnricJuliana/status/1318843457734139904?s=19

https://twitter.com/AITOR_ESTEBAN/status/1318816315155546112?s=19

[Velasco]

Finally PP leader Pablo Casado reveals that his party will vote "No" to Santiago Abascal and launches an attack on VOX.

Defensive movement?

[Former President tack50]

Finally PP leader Pablo Casado reveals that his party will vote "No" to Santiago Abascal and launches an attack on VOX.

Defensive movement?

Listening to it, Casado's speech sounds very very moderate, especially compared to what we are used to.

[Velasco]

Now Casado is claiming that Sánchez is a radical and his party represents moderation and common sense. He also said that Spain does not deserve a loony like Santiago Abascal and his rants against Europe and the "Chinese virus"

Moderation is always welcomed, even though it's inconsistent with Casado's previous speeches

Pablo Iglesias on stage

[Velasco]

Reactions to Casado's speech

Pedro Sánchez offers to stop the application of the controversial judicial reform, while he expects that Casado accepts for once to negotiate the renewal of the General Council of the Judiciary and other institutions

Vox announces a stop in the budget negotiation with the Andalusian government, warning that the PP can't govern the Spain's nist populated region without the far-right

[Velasco]

It's all over

The motion fails with the only support of the 52 Vox deputies

[Velasco]

The speech of Pablo Casado this morning was important, so here's a video for those who understand Spanish

And the reply from Pablo Iglesias