Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Former President tack50]

BNG and EH Bildu get great results. Podemos is the big loser

And PP+C's are also big losers, as Casado imposed his own candidate against the wishes of the regional PP.

It seems the trend is the decline of national parties losing ground to regional parties.

Yes this is correct. In the Basque Country the 2 nationalist parties have a 2/3 supermajority (not like it matters since the Basque regional statute can be reformed by a standard majority) and they are getting their best result ever

And of course, BNG is beating PSOE in Galicia

[Skye]

Galicia, 90% in

Feijóo: 48.2% - 41
BNG: 23.7% - 19
PSdeG: 19.4% - 15 seats
GeC: 3.9% - 0 seats

[Velasco]

With 71% of the vote counted, it starts to become stronger the possibility that GeC will not win a single seat.

Same question.  What is the threshold for winning seats?   I think there are 4 provinces so I would think GeC would cross the threshold somewhere.

5%. Currently (77% in), they're at 4.2% in A Coruña, and 4.4% in Pontevedra.

Yes, it's 5% in any of the provinces (not in the region as a whole)

BNG and EH Bildu get great results. Podemos is the big loser

And PP+C's are also big losers, as Casado imposed his own candidate against the wishes of the regional PP.

It seems the trend is the decline of national parties losing ground to regional parties.

Yes. The big winners are Feijóo (PP in Galicia ismore 'regionalist' than national PP), the PNV and Urkullu (the PNV is currently a 'technocratic' catch-all-party that attracts nationalist and non-nationalist voters) and of course the leftwing nationalist/searatist BNG and EH Bildu.

The big losers are Podemos (following the catastrophic regional elections in May 2019), PSOE (surpassed in Galicia  ad stagnant in BC), the Basque PP (Inés Arrimadas made a good deal, as Cs will get 2 of the 6 coalition seats), Vox (winning a seat in Álava has a symbolic importance,. though) and Cs (not their elections)

[Former President tack50]

With 71% of the vote counted, it starts to become stronger the possibility that GeC will not win a single seat.

Same question.  What is the threshold for winning seats?   I think there are 4 provinces so I would think GeC would cross the threshold somewhere.

5%. Currently (77% in), they're at 4.2% in A Coruña, and 4.4% in Pontevedra.

Yes, it's 5% in any of the provinces (not in the region as a whole)

BNG and EH Bildu get great results. Podemos is the big loser

And PP+C's are also big losers, as Casado imposed his own candidate against the wishes of the regional PP.

It seems the trend is the decline of national parties losing ground to regional parties.

Yes. The big winners are Feijóo (PP in Galicia ismore 'regionalist' than national PP), the PNV and Urkullu (the PNV is currently a 'technocratic' catch-all-party that attracts nationalist and non-nationalist voters) and of course the leftwing nationalists/searatists BNG and EH Bildu.

The big losers are Podemos (following the catastrophic regional elections in May 2019), PSOE (surpassed in Galicia  ad stagnant in BC), the Basque PP (Inés Arrimadas made a good deal, as Cs will get 2 of the 6 coalition seats), Vox (winning a seat in Álava has a symbolic importance,. though) and Cs (not their elections)

I would argue Vox is actually a winner tonight. Not a big one but they got the only prize they had a chance to get.

The big loser is Podemos of course.

[Velasco]

I would argue Vox is actually a winner tonight. Not a big one but they got the only prize they had a chance to get.

Cs won two seats in the Basque Parliament thanks to the joint venture with the PP. They are Pyrrhic victoriies, in any case

[Skye]

Hold up. Over 96% in Galicia and the total vote count is 1.265 million compared to the 1.448 million of 2016. But turnout is up by 5 points since then. Velasco, are you sure the vote by mail is being counted at the moment?

[Velasco]

Hold up. Over 96% in Galicia and the total vote count is 1.265 million compared to the 1.448 million of 2016. But turnout is up by 5 points since then. Velasco, are you sure the vote by mail is being counted at the moment?

Yes, I'm pretty sure

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20190428/461841350117/elecciones-generales-espana-2019-voto-por-correo-presenciales.html

El recuento de votos es el momento más esperado de cada jornada electoral. Se trata de un proceso que se realiza de manera manual mesa a mesa en cada colegio electoral del país. Debemos tener en cuenta que existen tres tipos de votos, los presenciales, los emitidos por correo desde España y los que llegan de fuera procedentes de los residentes en el extranjero.

Los dos primeros, se cuantifican de forma conjunta el mismo día de las elecciones, una vez concluye la jornada. Las oficinas de Correos entregan todos los votos emitidos a las 9 de la mañana, justo antes de abrir el colegio electoral y se guardan hasta que cierren, a las 20h. En ese momento, el presidente de la mesa introduce las papeletas del voto por correo en las urnas en las que se han depositado todos los votos presenciales a lo largo del día.  

I think the divergence in turnout figures is due to the sizeable migrant population, There are a lot of  gallegos abroad (particularly in Latin America) and turnout is abysmal due to the system of "requested vote" (voto rogado). Votes from abroad have not been counted tonight

[Velasco]

For the record, I made three "predictions" that proved to be right

1) No change in Galicia: Feijoo wins
2) Good results for EH Bildu (historical high)
3) Vox wins a seat for Alava

It's not that I'm a genius, because they were very easy oredictions. I think Mike 88 predicted that the BNG would come second based on turnout reports

Sorry for the self-congratulations, but I'm a bit bored for the lack of emotions tonight

[Skye]

Since the vote counting in Galicia is now progressing at a snail's pace, I mapped the election in the meantime.

First, with the parties that obtained seats:



Second, with broader ideological blocs including the parties that didn't get seats at all.

[Mike88]

Results by muncipality:

https://www.eldiario.es/galicia/mapa-resultados-12j-galicia-municipio_1_6098421.html

And the map:

https://twitter.com/EP_Data/status/1282422228785811457

[Velasco]

In the last map Vigo is in colour red. I checked and the PSOE came close of winning, but it came second behind the PP. Vigo is the most populated town in Galicia and it has a popular socialist mayor that wins by landslide (the singular Abel Caballero). It's generically left-wing and En Marea came first in the 2015 general elections

Tonight results for Vigo

PP 32.6, PSOE 31 9, BNG 23 3, GeC 6.1, Vox 2 2, Cs 1 2

[Mike88]

In the last map Vigo is in colour red. I checked and the PSOE came close of winning, but it came second behind the PP. Vigo is the most populated town in Galicia and it has a popular sociakist mayor that wins by landslide (the singular Abel Caballero). It's generically left-wing and En Marea came first in the 2015 general elections

Tonight results for Vigo

PP 32.6, PSOE 31 9, BNG 23 3, GeC 6.1, Vox 2 2, Cs 1 2

Yeah, the map has that error. Weird. And the PSOE candidate for the Presidency of Galicia was his nephew.

And a seat is still in play in Pontevedra province. The PP currently leads the 11th seat by just 160 votes. The PP and PSOE are fighting for the seat

[Mike88]

The results in the Basque Country are also final:

39.1% PNV, 31 seats
27.8% Bildu, 22
13.6% PSOE, 10
  8.0% Podemos, 6
  6.7% PP+C's, 5
  2.0% Vox, 1

Map:
https://twitter.com/rtve/status/1282409416273338369

[Velasco]

In the last map Vigo is in colour red. I checked and the PSOE came close of winning, but it came second behind the PP. Vigo is the most populated town in Galicia and it has a popular socialist mayor that wins by landslide (the singular Abel Caballero). It's generically left-wing and En Marea came first in the 2015 general elections

Tonight results for Vigo

PP 32.6, PSOE 31 9, BNG 23 3, GeC 6.1, Vox 2 2, Cs 1 2

Yeah, the map has that error. Weird. And the PSOE candidate for the Presidency of Galicia was his nephew.

Leading party maps of Galicia are overwhelmingly blue due to the PP hegemony and the division of the left

I checked Cangas too, a left-wing nationalist stronghold in Pontevedra province

.PP 34.2, BNG 34.1, PSOE 17.8, GeC 8.4, Vox 1 6, Cs 1

Pretty leftwing overall, but the PP beats the BNG by a hair  

[Mike88]

In the last map Vigo is in colour red. I checked and the PSOE came close of winning, but it came second behind the PP. Vigo is the most populated town in Galicia and it has a popular socialist mayor that wins by landslide (the singular Abel Caballero). It's generically left-wing and En Marea came first in the 2015 general elections

Tonight results for Vigo

PP 32.6, PSOE 31 9, BNG 23 3, GeC 6.1, Vox 2 2, Cs 1 2

Yeah, the map has that error. Weird. And the PSOE candidate for the Presidency of Galicia was his nephew.

Leading party maps of Galicia are ocerwhelmingly blue due to the PP gegemony and the division of the left

I checked Cangas too, a left-wing nationalist stronghold in Pontevedra province

.PP 34.2, BNG 34.1, PSOE 17.8, GeC 8.4, Vox 1 6, Cs 1

Pretty leftwing overall, but the PP beats the BNG by a hair  

Also, in the Portuguese border, BNG polled above 30% between Tui and A Guarda. Also polled well in the border city of Verín.

The 11th PP in Pontevedra seat has gone back to PSOE. PSOE leads now by 121 votes. Let's see if it stands or will PP gain it back.

[Mike88]

Down to 57 votes the lead by PSOE in that seat in Pontevedra with 99.16% of the votes counted

[Velasco]

In the Basque Country map I see that the PSOE manages to win a single municipality. It's Ermua, a small town in Biscay close to the town of Eibar in Gipuzkoa. Ermua has a large amount of people with origins in other regions (Galicia, for instance). Miguel Angel Blanco, a PP councillor killed by ETA in 1997, was from Ermua

Tonight results in Ermua

PSE-EE 26 6, PNV 24.9, EH Bildu 21 2, EP 11 9, PP+Cs 10 1, Vox 1.9

[Mike88]

Down to 57 votes the lead by PSOE in that seat in Pontevedra with 99.16% of the votes counted

The PP takes again this seat, now with 110 votes ahead of PSOE. 0.52% of the vote still to be counted in Pontevedra.

[Mike88]

In the Basque Country map I see that the PSOE manages to win a single municipality. It's Ermua, a small town in Biscay close to the town of Eibar in Gipuzkoa. Ermua has a large amount of people with origins in other regions (Galicia, for instance). Miguel Angel Blanco, a PP councillor killed by ETA in 1997, was from Ermua

Tonight results in Ermua

PSE-EE 26 6, PNV 24.9, EH Bildu 21 2, EP 11 9, PP+Cs 10 1, Vox 1.9

The PP was quite strong there in the past, polling at above 20%.

[Mike88]

Final results from Galicia. The PP failed to win the 42nd seat by 45 votes in Pontevedra.

48.0% PP, 41 seats
23.8% BNG, 19
19.4% PSOE, 15
  3.9% GeC, 0
  2.0% Vox, 0
  0.8% C's, 0
  0.5% PACMA, 0
  0.2% Mareas, 0
  0.5% Other parties, 0
  0.9% Blank ballots

58.9% Turnout

[Former President tack50]

With all the close calls I think we will need to wait for the mailed votes from Spaniards permanently abroad (CERA vote) to get an idea of the final result for good

[CumbrianLefty]

Final results from Galicia. The PP failed to win the 42nd seat by 45 votes in Pontevedra.

48.0% PP, 41 seats
23.8% BNG, 19
19.4% PSOE, 15
  3.9% GeC, 0
  2.0% Vox, 0
  0.8% C's, 0
  0.5% PACMA, 0
  0.2% Mareas, 0
  0.5% Other parties, 0
  0.9% Blank ballots

58.9% Turnout

Only three parties winning seats much be pretty unusual in Spanish elections these days?

[Velasco]

UP collapse / rise of leftwing nationalists

Galicia: GeC + Marea Galeguista 4.15% (-14.92%) / BNG 23.8% (+15.44%)
Basque Country: EP + Equo 9.33% (-5.53%) / EH Bildu 27.84% (+6.58%)

PSOE + UP / Overall Left

Galicia: PSOE + GeC 23.31% (-13.64%) / Left (incl. BNG) 47.11% (+1.8%)
Basque Country: PSOE + EP 21.67% (-5.13%) / Left (incl. EH Bildu and Equo) 50.81% (+2.75%)

Feijóo Vs PP+Cs

Galicia: PP 47.98% (+0.45%)
Basque Country: PP+Cs 6.75% (-5.46%)

In the Basque Country map I see that the PSOE manages to win a single municipality. It's Ermua, a small town in Biscay close to the town of Eibar in Gipuzkoa. Ermua has a large amount of people with origins in other regions (Galicia, for instance). Miguel Angel Blanco, a PP councillor killed by ETA in 1997, was from Ermua

Tonight results in Ermua

PSE-EE 26 6, PNV 24.9, EH Bildu 21 2, EP 11 9, PP+Cs 10 1, Vox 1.9

The PP was quite strong there in the past, polling at above 20%.

 PP still got 13.55% in 2016 plus 2.75% for Cs in Ermua

In Getxo, an affluent municipality close to Bilbao (Margen Derecha), PP got 20.49% in 2016 (second behind the PNV) and Cs got 2.98%. PP+Cs still get 17.09% in 2020 (3rd behind PNV and EH Bildu), while Vox gets 3.19%
 

[Former President tack50]

Final results from Galicia. The PP failed to win the 42nd seat by 45 votes in Pontevedra.

48.0% PP, 41 seats
23.8% BNG, 19
19.4% PSOE, 15
   3.9% GeC, 0
   2.0% Vox, 0
   0.8% C's, 0
   0.5% PACMA, 0
   0.2% Mareas, 0
   0.5% Other parties, 0
  0.9% Blank ballots

58.9% Turnout

Only three parties winning seats much be pretty unusual in Spanish elections these days?

It can still happen but yeah it is the exception and not the norm at all.

In 2019 for example it only happened in Castille-La Mancha (which elected 19 PSOE, 14 PP and 2 Cs and nothing else), which simultaneously:

A) Is very unfriendly to the "new parties" and a stronghold of the old 2 party system
B) Has no notable regional parties
C) Has an extremely hostile electoral system towards third parties, with a de facto threshold of like 9% (PR by province, but no province elects more than 9 seats)

Really this was a big surprise and something that can't really happen outside Castille-La Mancha and maybe Extremadura (an even stronger stronghold of the old 2 party system, but with a much friendlier electoral system for third parties). Maybe in La Rioja as well.

In both cases it would depend on whether the UP collapse repeats itself in these regions without nationalist parties or not tbh. But they are not up until 2023 so the question is a bit irrelevant now I suppose

[Skye]

I'm honestly shocked that Podemos was shut out of the Galician Parliament. It's as if half their voters fled straight to the BNG and pollsters didn't notice.