Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

Manuela Carmena: "The Frugal Leftist Who Shook Up Madrid"

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/24/world/europe/madrid-spain-mayor-carmena.html?ref=nyt-es&mcid=nyt-es&subid=article

Her conservative rivals demonized her as a heavy spender, a former Communist certain to bust the budget in no time. Yet four years later, Mayor Manuela Carmena of Madrid is the favorite as she faces voters for a second time on Sunday, having cut the city’s multibillion-euro debt by nearly half (...)

Bill de Blasio endorsed Barcelona mayor Ada Colau

[Velasco]

Just as a reminder, tomorrow key local and regional elections take place in Spain alongside EP elections. Polls suggest the fragmentation seen at the national vote will extend to regions and municipalities. Will April and May votes trigger a new era of coalitions at all levels?

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/05/24/inenglish/1558708576_117836.html

The country is still fresh out of a snap general election that gave the highest number of seats to the Socialist Party (PSOE), but yielded a fragmented Congress with no overall majorities. Political leaders are waiting for the outcome of the Sunday vote to start crafting governing pacts, and polls suggest that a similar fragmentation could emerge at the local and regional levels, forcing parties into coalitions or pledges of case-by-case support (...)

[Velasco]

Are there coalitions in Spain on the local level which can't be imagined on the national or regional level, like PSOE-PP or Podemos-Cs? I think they probably do exist because of local politics being less ideological and having different issues than politics on the "higher" levels, and such local coalitions do exist in other countries...

Yes, of course. There are all kinds of "atypical" coalitions at local level. I don't know about Podemos-Cs coalitions (that doesn't imply they don't exist), but there are several examples of coalitions and deals vetween PP and PSOE. The most relevant and recent example that comes to my mind is Badalona, the third largest municipality of Catalonia by population. PP came first in the 2015 elections with the vontroversial former mayor Xavier García Albiol, but a coalition between leftist parties gave the mayoralty to the sovereigntist Dolors Sabater. However the local socialists felt mistreated by the new local government and ceased to support Sabater. Xavier García Albiol offered the PP votes to oust the pro-independence mayor and she was replaced by a PSC guy. This example is ideological and related to the conflict on independence, but the PSC has reached deals with nearly everybody in Catalonia from PP and Cs to ERC, the former CiU and of course ICV and the lists backed by Podemos.

[Velasco]

I went to vote minutes ago. As a resident in the Canary Islands, I had to cast five ballots

European Parliament
Canarian Parliament: regional constituency
Canarian Parliament: insular constituency
Local Elections: Cabildos
Local Elections: councilors

[Velasco]

Probably the right is going to win Madrid (city). Lower turnout in southern Madrid and higher in the wealthier parts.

Turnout reports don't look very promising, indeed. Yesterday Pablo Iglesias endorsed clearly the rival list led by Carlos Sánchez Mato (Madrid en Pie: IU+Anticapitalistas) which has little chances to reach the 5% threshold but may hurt the list of Manuela Carmena.  Regarding regional elections, I don't want to imagine the Madrid government led by the astonishingly brilliant Isabel Diaz Ayuso. If the left doesn't win in Madrid this time with such rightwing candidates, then it never will. I'll try to remain optimistic until the count comes, fingers crossed...

[Velasco]

Barcelona exit poll

ERC 22.5% 10-11 councilors
BCOMU 22% 10-11
PSC 16% 7-8
JXCAT 12.4% 5-6
Manuel Valls- Cs 11.9% 5-6
BCap (ANC, pro-independence) 4.5% 0-2

[Velasco]

Barcelona exit poll

ERC 22.5% 10-11 councilors
BCOMU 22% 10-11
PSC 16% 7-8
JXCAT 12.4% 5-6
Manuel Valls- Cs 11.9% 5-6
BCap (ANC, pro-independence) 4.5% 0-2

Wow, anything about PP and la CUP?

Apparently the CUP is on the same percentage as BCap and PP dissapears. Take exit polls with loads of salt. There is concern in the Podemos HQs anyway. Ada Colau is the only "mayor of change" with a decent (but cool) relationship with Pablo Iglesias. Losing Barcelona by such a narrow margin would be a serious setback.  I think the Madrid exit polls are too optimistic, given turnout decrease in the south. UP behind Más Madrid is not good for Iglesias. ..

[Velasco]

The region of Madrid is too close to call. In 2016 the PP won the last seat at midnight and retained the region by a narrow margin. Then the IU votes were wasted because that list didn't reach the 5% threshold.  The city of Madrid will go to the right and Carmena lost (undeservrdly imo) despite her list came first. The list backed by Pablo Iglesias in the last minute gets less than 3% and no councilors: wasted votes again. Más Madrid gets around 15% and UP is barely above the 5% threshold in regional elections. Angel Gabilondo could be a great Madrid premier, but Isabel Diaz Ayuso has chances.

In Barcelona ERC beats BCOMU by a 0.7% margin !

Excellent results for the PSOE anyway

[Velasco]

Cs is trying to buy time. The orange party will create a committee to consider the possibility of deals with the PSOE in regions like Castilla y León, Aragon or Murcia. However, the deals with PP and Vox in Madrid are still on the table. In case Vox demands seats in regional and local governments, Cs will be in trouble. Cs candidate Begoña Villacis suggested that, in order to prevent Vox influence, PSOE should back her as mayor of Madrid instead of Manuela Carmena. The acting mayor conceded defeat on election night (despite she came first), ruled out deals with Cs and announced she quits politics.

Manuel Valls threatens to break relations with Cs in case the Albert Rivera party deals with Vox in Madrid. His platform Barcelona pel Canvi ("Barcelona for Change") won 6 seats in the Barcelona City Hall: Valls and other two councilors are independents (one of them is Celestino Corbacho, a former Labour minister with Zapatero). There is a possibility to orevent thst ERC candidate Ernrst Maragall becomes the next Barcelona mayor. ERC and Ada Colau's party BCOMU are tied at 10 councilors. A deal with ERC and JxCAT could represent the political death of Colau, but the acting mayor could try a deal with the PSC. BCOMU and PSC add 18 councilors and majority is set at 21. In case Manuel Valls and the other two independent councilors allow a coalition between BCOMU and PSC without taking part in government, there is a possibility to prevent that Barcelona has a separatist mayor. It won't be easy as there is an ideological abyss between 'neoliberal' Valls and 'populist' Colau.

[Velasco]

Nice precinct map of the local elections in Barcelona,  a very tight contest in a city of fascinating electoral geography. Clickable, of course

https://m.eldiario.es/catalunya/MAPA-Consulta-municipales-Barcelona-calle_0_903959951.html

[Velasco]

Nice precinct map of the local elections in Barcelona,  a very tight contest in a city of fascinating electoral geography. Clickable, of course

https://m.eldiario.es/catalunya/MAPA-Consulta-municipales-Barcelona-calle_0_903959951.html

Huh, interesting that the few Cs precincts (lolvalls, btw) are enclaved into ERC's general area of strength. Since those are the two parties most far apart from each other, I'd have assumed their voters lived further apart.

More generally, can you explain the sociological patterns for those who aren't familiar to Barcelona's geography?

The precincts where the Valls list came first are located in the wealthiest part of Barcelona, corresponding to the municipal district of Sarrià-Sant Gervasi and part of Les Corts. These affluent neighbourhoods vote consistently to right-wing parties, traditionally CiU and PP. If you look closely, you'll notice there are a few deep blue precincts surrounded by the orange: they were won by the JxCAT list (the heirs of CiU, the Catalan nationalist right). Cs has replaced largely the declining PP and ERC is making inroads into the traditional CiU base. The ERC strong places correspond mostly to middle class neighbourhoods, namely the Eixample district (XIX Century enlargement), Gràcia (former independent municipality incorpoated to Barcelona, traditionally left-wing and very nationalist, gentrified) , Les Corts, Guinardò and so on. BComú is stronger in the old quarterof Barcelona (Ciutat Vella), as well in old working-class and popular neighbourhoods like Poblenou or Sant Martí. The best places for the PSC are peripheral working-class neighbourhoods which were built to house immigrants from other arts of Spain and are the most deprived areas of the city. I have an income map by neoghbourhood that might be helpful to illustrate socio-economic patterns:

[Velasco]

Now with the regional results, what is going to happen?

Yesterday Manuel Valls made an interesting move in Barcelona, offering his votes in the City Hall to back BComú and PSC with Ada Colau as mayor. This support is unconditional: the only purpose is to prevent that separatist Ernest Maragall (ERC) becomes mayor. ERC won narrowly the local elections in Barcelona and is tied with BComú at 10 councilors, while PSC won 8, Valls 6 (3 Cs, 3 independent), JxCAT 5 and PP 2. Cs national leadership reacted with visible displeasure to the Valls offer; party spokepersons stated they don't support 'populists' like Ada Colau. The Valls move has left Cs leadership misplaced, because it's not easy to justify the opposition to a move aimed to prevent a separatist local government in Barcelona. Cs leadership is saying now that PSC candidate Jaume Collboni would be more acceptable, despite Albert Rivera deems the Catalan Socialists as a "nationalist" force. Cs and Albert Rivera are engaged in a turn to the right that in all likelihood will end with a deal with PP and Vox in Madrid. Valls said on the very election night that deals between Cs and Vox will entail his emancipation. On the other hand, Ada Colau didn't reject explicitly the Valls offer. However BComú spokepersons say their priority is a left-wing agreement with ERC and PSC and reject talks with Valls and JxCAT. The problem is that ERC and PSC are in opposite sides on the national question and veto each other. ERC candidate Maragall favours an agreement with BComú and JxCAT.

In another interesting move, Íñigo Errejón (Más Madrid) stated that he's open to talk with PSOE and Cs in order to prevent that PP and Vox govern the city and the region of Madrid. It's a declaration of intent, not a detailed proposal. He's saying that a PSOE-Cs deal is far from being an ideal scenario, but it's preferable to a government of the corrupt PP with the support of the far right. In short: both Valls and Errejón and advocating the lesser evil and are breaking the dynamic of the opposite blocs, forcing the other parties to make a choice and show their contradictions. On the other hand, Vox is demanding posts in local and regional governments. The far right party won't accept a subsidiary role, supporting a PP-Cs governments from the outside as it happened in Andalusia. Vox decreased in local and regional elections, but wants to assert its decisive seats. This demand displeases Cs especially; oranges will try to press on the far right to accept a deal similar to Andalusia. But Vox is threatening to let the left govern. There is a small chance to Manuela Carmena in case rightwing parties don't reach a deal, because Spanish legislation says the list coming first gets the mayoralty in case there's no alternative majority. Similarly ERC candidate Ernest Maragall will be the next mayor of Barcelona in case BComú and PSC don't conform an alternative majority with the 3 independent councilors of the Valls list. I think the right will end governing Madrid and the materialization of alternative majorities in Barcelona is very difficult. Anyway things are becoming interesting.

Pedro Sánchez and Macron had a meeting in Paris that might not be unrelated with the valls move in Barcelona, according to some analysts. Timmermans attended a PSC-PSOE campaign act in Barcelona. The S&D candidate is aware of the political situation in Catalonia.

[Velasco]

Cs national leadership reacted with visible displeasure to the Valls offer; party spokepersons stated they don't support 'populists' like Ada Colau.

That's... ironic...

The Ada Colau party has many internal contradictions (basically on the national question), but nothing comparable to the impossible reconciliation between liberal values and cooperation with the illiberal Vox, the Spanish branch of Trump International. I think oranges will get increasingly entangled in their inconsistency.

On the other hand I think Ada Colau should consider the Valls offer, because losing the Barecelona mayoralty would entail the end of her political career and the death of her political force. The results of her party outside the city of Barcelona were horrible, disappearing in places like Terrassa or Sabadell (formerly strongplaces for the PSUC and ICV)

[Velasco]

Lol, so Sanchez isn't going to pass a budget and new elections will be held in less than 2 years!!!

Hopefully the next election will be in 4 years. Negotiations in parliament will be terribly complicated, but I think Sánchez will last more than 2 years.

[Velasco]

Nationwide precinct map of the Spanish Local Elections

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-elecciones-municipales-resultados-calle_0_904309592.html

Precinct map of the Madrid regional election

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-resultados-Comunidad-Madrid-calle_0_903610901.html

The rivalry between Podemos founders Pablo Iglesias and Íñigo Errejón in graphs. Más Madrid, the list led by Ïñigo Errejón, got 14.7% (471k) in regional elections while the Unidas Podemos list backed by Pablo Iglesias got 5.6% (179k). The combined vote of Más Madrid and UP exceeded by 40 thousand votes the UP result in the general elections. Also, the combined result of MM and UP retained the 27 seats won by Podemos in 2015 (IU got 4.3% and didn't win seats), while the PSOE won 37 seats in both elections with a 2% increase in vote share. Compared to the EP results, UP lost nearly 230k and PSOE 157k. Presumably a vast majority of these votes backed Más Madrid in regional elections. With these results Ïñigo Errejón has stated the intention to create a new party inspired in the German Greens. For the moment this party would not extend outside the borders of Madrid, but Errejón doesn't rule out alliances with other regional forces to create a federal structure in all Spain.

https://www.eldiario.es/madrid/primera-electoral-Iglesias-Errejon-graficos_0_904309895.html

In the news: "Center-right Ciudadanos is under growing pressure not to do deals with the far-right Vox, which could allow the left to form a government in the Madrid region and elsewhere"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/05/31/inenglish/1559288173_006357.html

(...) his Italian-style situation has been brewing for years now, but it has been consolidated with the recent election results. It is also putting a spotlight on those who are offering Italian-style solutions, such as the Spanish-born Valls, the Ciudadanos candidate for Barcelona City Hall. He is offering his votes to the incumbent mayor, former campaigner Ada Colau, in a bid to keep control of the council out of the hands of pro-independence candidate Ernest Maragall. In the case of Íñigo Errejón, formerly of Podemos but who ran for the Madrid regional government with the Más Madrid party, he is offering to do a deal with Ciudadanos and the PSOE in order to keep the PP and Ciudadanos from relying on the support of far-right Vox to form a government both in the regional assembly and city council (...)

[Velasco]

It would be dumb from them to make a deal with Mas Madrid and PSOE. Their electorate is definitely rightwing.

I don't think it's dumb to explore alternatives that keep the far right out of power, but sadly the likeliest scenario in Madrid is the rightwing triumvirate. I'm not a big fan of Manuel Valls, but he's absolutely right in putting his principles above everything else.

[Velasco]

With regard to the analysis of local elections in Barcelona, according to eldiario.es pro-independence parties decreased in the upper class neighbourhoods and increased in the lower class. While the affluent areas switched from CiU to the Manuel Valls list backed by Cs, there's an increase of the vote for ERC in the working-class neighbourhoods correlated to an increase in the Barcelona Metropolitan Region. The article talks about a "Rufián effect", referring to the controversial ERC candidate in general elections Gabriel Rufián (verbose separatist with Andalusian origins, very popular in Twitter). Local election results in the poor areas of Barcelona and Metro region were good for the PSC, but the support for the Ada Colau party decreased. Pro-independence increase does not imply hegemony, since the support for separatist parties is always below 30% in the poorest neighbourhoods of Nou Barris and the Besos. In the wealthy neighbourhoods of Barcelona  the ERC increase does not compensate the decrease of JxCAT with regard to CiU in 2015. Cs (Valls) is the preferred party of the Barcelona rlites, ehile PSC makes inroads in these traditionally hostile places. The PSC increase is apparently uniforn throughout the city. BCOMU decreased in poorest neighbourhoods that returned to PSC, as well in lower middle class areas, while resisted better in upper middle class neighbourhoods where ERC is the first party. Following the link you'll find some interesting maps and stuff

https://m.eldiario.es/catalunya/politica/independentismo-barrios-fuerza-humildes-Barcelona_0_903960271.html

[Velasco]

I think the local and regional elections were good for the PSOE and the EP election was a huge success for the list topped by the Catalan anti-separatist Josep Borrell, as well as a good one for Puigdemont in Catalonia (but not for his party in local elections). I think there is a huge election fatigue in all of Spain except in the heated Catalonia

[Velasco]

Leading party by neighbourhood in the Barcelona local elections of 2015 and 2019

Results:
 ERC 21.3% (+10.3%) 10 (+5) councilors. Candidate: Ernest Maragall
BComú 20.7% (-4.5%) 10 (-1) councilors. Candidate: Ada Colau
PSC 18.4% (+8.8%) 8 (+4) councilors. Candidate: Jaume Collboni
BpC Cs 13.2% (+2.2%) 6 (+1) councilors. Candidate: Manuel Valls
JxCAT (CiU 2015) 10.5% (-12.3%) 5 (-5) councilors. Candidate: Joaquim Forn*
PP 5.0% (-3.7%) 2 (-1) councilors. Candidate: Josep Bou

CUP 3.9% (-3.5%) 0 (-3) councilors
BCAP Primaries 3.7% (new) 0 councilors
VOX 1.2% (+0.9%) 0 councilors

* Joaquim Forn is in preventive detention. The second in the list is the spokeswoman of the Catalan government Elsa Artadi

Take a look at the income map in a previous post to spot socioeconomic patterns

[Velasco]

Certainly an interesting map. Colau seems to have her vote more evenly spread out compared to ERC, Cs (who won the rich "Upper Diagonal") or PSC (which a concentrated vote in Nou Barris.

No, it's the opposite. The ERC vote is more evenly spread than the Ada Colau's.

The best neighbourhood for ERC was la Barceloneta (30.2%) and it's the only one where the Ernest Maragall list got more than 30% of the vote. The worst was Ciutat Meridiana (10.6%) in Nou Barris. ERC got between 20% and 30% of the vote in a majority of neighbourhoods. There are a few places where ERC got less than 15%, mostly in the poor peripheral places won by the PSC and in some upper class neighbourhoods like Pedralbes.


Barcelona en Comú, the Ada Colau party, got its best results in the tiny la Clota (32.1%) and in Sant Pere, Santa Caterina i la Ribera (30.4%), located in Horta-Guinardó and Ciutat Vella districts respectively. The worst result was in Pedralbes (4.8%) and it got less than 10% in some other wealthy neighbourhoods. In the rest of Barcelona the vote for BComú is more evenly spread, either in middle class or working class neighbourhoods.

The PSC regained its stronghold in Nou Barris from BComú, but it also managed to grow in middle and upper class neighbourgoods. Socialists got more than 30% in several neighbourhoods of Nou Barris (Ciutat Meridiana 38.7%) and el Carmel. Also, the PSC got more than 10% in the same upper class neighbourhoods where the Colau party is weak, which is an improvement. Somewhat surprisingly the worst result for the PSC was in Vila de Gràcia (11.3%), that is a neighbourhood with a leftist tradition (BComú came first getting 27.6%) and a strong nationalist vote. PSC got between 15% and 20% in a majority of neighbourhoods.

The best result for the list of Manuel Valls was in Pedralbes (34.8%), the wealthiest neighbourhood of Barcelona located in Les Corts district; the second best in Las Tres Torres (33.8%) in Sarrià-Sant Gervasi district. The worst results were in places like la Clota (5.7%) and Vila de Gràcia (7.3%).

Junts got it best result in Sarrià (19.4%), but lost ore than a half of its support in the uptown places that voted CiU in 2015 and now embraced Valls. The worst results for JxCAT were in Nou Barris (Ciutat Meridiana 2.1%)

PP got 10% in Pedralbes and some 1.7% in la Clota
 

BComú came first in 6 of the 10 municipal districts, ERC in 2 (Eixample and Les Corts), PSC in 1 (Nou Barris) and Cs in 1 (Sarrià-Sant Gervasi).

In the news: ERC suspended negotiations with BComú asking Ada Colau to make clear if she wants to deal with Ernest Maragall or go with the socialists and Valls. It's telling.

[Velasco]

Regarding Podemos, Pablo Echenique will be replaced by Alberto Rodríguez (aka Rastaman), a deputy from Santa Cruz de Tenerife. Rodriguez is senior technician in environnental chemistry and worked in the petrol refinery located in the Tenerife capital. His rastaman appearance shocked Mariano Rajoy at the inaugural session of the Congress after the 2015 elections; the picture of Rajoy gazing at Rodríguez was published by all papers. My cousin has met Rodríguez and says he's a nice man. Podemos, is more than ever the Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero Cult Sect. I guess Podemos will become increasingly marginal over the time and I only hope that it's not replaced by something worse.

It'd be a shame the Navarrese Socialists are sacrificed again in exchange for the UPN votes, as it happened in 2007. PSOE candidate Maria Chivite will begin to talk with GBai, Podemos and IU. The problem is that she needs that EH Bildu abstains and the PSOE national leadership doesn't like it. Also, EH Bildu is seeking to retain the Pamplona mayoralty. That requires PSOE votes in favour of the EH Bildu candidate, which is not going to happen.

In the Canaries, Cs rejects to vote for the CC candidate Fernando Clavijo because he's been investigated for an affair dating back to his tenure as mayor of La Laguna. PSOE could try a deal with Podemos, NC and Casimiro Curbelo... or a deal with the PP. CC is governing since 1993: 26 years of cronyism and incompetence.

The Cs leadership agreed that PP is the preferential partner for coalitions, but rules out direct negotiations with VOX (dirty work is left to the PP). The centrist faction represented by Luis Garicano and the candidate in Castile and Leon Francisco Igea advocated deals with PSOE (Garicano supported the Valls move in Barcelona, as separatists will "destroy" the city and Colau is the "lesser evil"). Igea prefers to deal with the socialists in his region, while Ignacio Aguado in Madrid rejects any alternative to the deal with PP (and Vox). The problem is that Vox is not willing to accept being ignored and marginalized by the oranges. Santiago Abascal assures he prefers to commit hara kiri (allowing Carnena and Gabilondo to govern) to be humiliated by the arrogant  orange vanes...

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez accepts the commission of King Felipe to form a government "as soon as possible". Spanish political parties have been meeting with King Felipe to discuss who they will support in the investiture vote. During these talks, PSOE and Pedro Sánchez remained silent playing the "waiting game"

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/06/inenglish/1559813278_485053.html

Ana Oramas, a lawmaker with the small regional party Canary Coalition (CC) with years of experience in negotiations, put it bluntly: “It is the first time in 11 years that we have arrived at the round of talks with the king without having a single conversation with the investiture candidate or their team.”

Ana Oramas ruled out CC will help Pedro Sánchez, given that her party rejects deals with Podemos and presumably the PSOE will have to make an arrangement with the purples. However there exists the option to replace the 2 CC votes with the 2 deputies of the Navarrese People's Union (UPN, part of NA+). The abstention of the 2 Navarrese regionalists would pave the way for Pedro Sánchez to be elected in a second investiture vote, providing that PSOE secures the support of UP, PNV, Compromís and PRC. These parties add 173 seats (3 short of a majority), while the parties voting against would add 172 seats (discounted the 2 UPN deputies and the 3 JxCAT deputies in preventive detention that haven't been replaced). Reminder: first investiture requires absolute majority (176 seats of 350), while second investiture vote requires simple majority (more votes in favour than against).

 The abstention of the UPN deputies would be in exchange for the PSOE abstention in the Navarrese regional parliament and in the Pamplona town hall, allowing NA+ to govern the region and its capital. This deal would entail the sacrifice of the Navarrese branch of the PSOE led by María Chivite, who is seeking a deal with GBai (PNV and progressive independents), Podemos and IU that requires the abstention of EH Bildu (Basque separatists) to succeed. PSOE national leadership dislikes the idea of a regional government depending on EH Bildu, because Pedro Sánchez is seeking an investiture without the support of separatist parties and needs the UPN votes. Apparently this exchange between PSOE and UPN won't create major problems with the PNV, despite it entails the GBai ally will go to opposition in Navarre (PNV might be considering run in its own or with another brand in Navarre).On the other hand, PP leader Pablo Casado stated he doesn't oppose a deal between UPN and PSOE if NA+ governs. Cs leader Albert Rivera is against such deals and he considers PSOE should simply allow the "constitutionalists" to govern, instead seeking the support of "populists" and "separatists". NA+ is a coalition operating in Navarre including UPN, PP and Cs.

The PSOE has been playing a waiting game in order to strengthen its position in negotiations, as well to move into centre stage

he Socialists appear to be playing a waiting game while other parties – especially the center-right Ciudadanos (Citizens) and the far-right Vox – hold numerous meetings, negotiate with one another, and deal with infighting.

The PSOE is open to all options, even to a deal with Ciudadanos, which may ultimately prove too difficult. And it has managed to keep its options open without hardly entering into negotiations. “The PSOE is not calling anybody because it is taking its time to see if there are other allies around,” said Alberto Garzón, the leader of United Left, which joined forces with the anti-austerity party Podemos at the general election to run as Unidas Podemos.

Albert Rivera has made clear there is no chance for a deal with the PSOE, as he is engaged to fight with Pablo Casado for the leadership of the opposition (Rivera claims leading the opposition is a matter of "attitude" and not necessarily a matter of seats in parliament). In what regards UP, the disastrous performance on May 26 diminishes the chance to enter in a coalition government. PSOE spokepersons have suggested that Pablo Iglesias should reconsider his pretensions. The weaker position of UP is reflected in the way socialists are no longer treating the coalition led by Iglesias as a "preferential partner", although the 42 UP votes in Congress are still necessary for Pedro Sánchez. After his meeting with King Felipe, Pablo Iglesias complained because Pedro Sánchez did not contact him in the past two weeks. The image of this "humbled" Iglesias contrasts sharply with his arrogant press conference after the meeting with the king after the 2015 elections. Then the attitude of Iglesias was dismissive, stating that it'd be a "smile of destiny" that Pedro Sánchez became PM.  The possibility of a PSOE-UP coalition is apparently fading away, but in any case negotiations start now.

Sánchez has liked to play a leading role in negotiations ever since he took power in June 2018 after leading a successful no-confidence motion against former Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of the PP. But this time around he is following the strategy of his predecessor, who always waited to see how the pieces fell before making a move.

[Velasco]

Regarding the formation of regional governments, you can check the pactometre (interactive map that shows you deal options when you click on a region)

https://elpais.com/especiales/2019/elecciones-autonomicas/pactos-electorales/

[Velasco]

It's pretty obvious that the Socialists don't have any option BUT a coalition with Podemos. So whatever Sanchez thinks about Iglesias' humility he won't be returned as PM without forming a government with him.

It's obvious that socialists have no other option but seeking the UP support. The main goal of Pablo Iglesias right now is entering in a coaltion government, in order to mitigate the effects of rlectoral catastrophe (Iglesias saved his face in April, but UP collapsed in May) and touch power. The 42 seats that UP holds in Congress are an important asset in negotiations, but socialists know that Pablo Iglesias can't threat them seriously with a repetition of elections (it'd be a disaster for UP) and that not everybody in the Iglesias' group is comfortable with the idea of a coalition government. For instance the Andalusian branch led by Teresa Rodríguez prefers not to participate in a coalition and favours an agreement on platform issues between PSOE and UP, as it happens in Portugal with PS and the leftist parties. The Podemos-IU alliance in Andalusia resisted better than in other regions, retaining the mayoralty of Cádiz.Teresa Rodríguez is a representative of the Podemos faction that is further to the left...

As I said before, negotiations start now and all is gambling

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez is ready to begin talks t form a new government

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/06/07/inenglish/1559891314_393684.html

I have a tremendous feeling of gratitude for the Spanish people, and a tremendous sense of responsibility,” said Sánchez, who will next week initiate talks with the conservative Popular Party (PP), center-right Ciudadanos (Citizens) and left-wing Unidas Podemos to discuss support for a PSOE-led government.

“We need to start this conversation. It’s either the PSOE or the PSOE. There is no alternative majority,” he said. “Everyone is responsible for facilitating this government, most particularly Podemos, the PP and Ciudadanos.”

The acting PM will meet Pablo Iglesias first, but the consultation round will follow with Pablo Casado and Albert Rivera. Sánchez will pressure rightwing leaders asking them to abstain and facilitate his investiture. It's highly unlikely that PP and Cs will help Sánchez and the negotiations between PSOE and UP will be tough. As said in the oprevious post the creation of a majority without the support of the (always unreliable) separatist parties is very complex and depends on the abstention of the Navarrese regionalists. Pablo Iglesias is upset because Pedro Sánchez hasn't talked with him in the last two weeks and says he fears the PSOE leader is considering a deal with Cs, despite the recent moves of the orange party and the awful personal relation between Sánchez and Rivera say otherwise.

PP and Vox sealed a deal to govern the municipalities where both parties have a majority without Cs. The deal has to be countersigned by local organizations and would affect around 30 municipalities including Almería and several towns belonging to its province (El Ejido, Adra, Roquetas de Mar, Nerja), Algeciras (Cádiz province, in front of Gibraltar), Ceuta and some wealthy towns in Madrid province (Pozuelo de Alarcón, Majadahonda and Las Rozas). However the deal won't be viable in Ceuta due to the Vox's "aggressive" message "contrary to connivance", according to local PP sources. This deal comes out in the context of the complex negotiations between PP and Cs, particularly tough in Madrid. A meeting between representatives of the PP and Cs municipal groups in Madrid went badly, to the point that PP councilor elect Andrea Levy (former deputy and Rajoy's protegé, a young promising star from Catalonia) stated that she's not sure who's going to support Cs. Sadly this doesn't imply that Cs will allow Manuela Carmena and Ángel Gabilondo to govern the Spain's capital and the region of Madrid. Rather the oranges are seeking to place Begoña Villacís as mayor or Ignacio Aguado as premier. The way Cs rejects to negotiate face to face with Vox, despite oranges need the far right votes to govern, is an additional difficulty. Madrid is too important for the Spanish Right to be lost due to differences between parties, so the most likely scenario is the Colón Triumvirate finally reaches an agreement to secure the city and the region's "tax oasis".

BComú grassroots endorsed massively the Cplau's decision to seek reelection as mayor of Barcelona.

PSOE and PAR reached an agreement in Aragon that doesn't secure a majority (only, but prevents the possibility of a rightwing government. The centre-right Aragonese Party ruled out deals with Vox due the radical centralism of the Santiago Abascal party. The PSOE premier Javier Lambán has secured 27 of 67 seats (PSOE 24, PAR 3) and needs to reach agreements with Cs (12) or the leftist parties (Podemos  5, CHA 3 and IU 1).

Casimiro Curbelo is the kingmaker in the Canary Islands, once socialists ruled out a deal with the PP. The cacique of La Gomera island caught a flight to Madrid and met minister of Development José Luis Äbalos, who is also the PSOE's secretary for organization. They talked about a deal that would allow the socialists to replace CC regionalists in government. Curbelo stated that he will be "cool and pragmatic" and didn't give clues on which candidate he will support. The leader of La Gomera left the PSOE in 2011 and since then he allied with CC in regional parliament. Even if he gets the support of the ASG (Gomera Socialists), the acting CC premier has a problem with Cs. Fernando Clavijo is under investigation for an old affair as mayor of La Laguna (Tenerife) and oranges reject to back him because of this. CC officials met in Madrid with Cs secretary general José Manuel Villegas in order to lift the veto on Clavijo. Orange bosses will look the Clavijo affair "calmly", according to a CC spokeperson. The parties left of the centre (PSOE 25, NC 5 and Podemos 4) hold 34 seats in regional parliament, parties right of the centre (CC 20. PP 11 and Cs 2) hold 33 and the Curbelo's ASG holds the remaining 3.