Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

The State of Alarm is for all of Spain

Currently Madrid, Metropolitan Barcelona and much of Castilla-León are still in Phase 0 of deescalation, while the rest of the cpuntry moved to Phase 1. But all the country is under State of Alarm, which allows the government to limit mobility. In case the new extension is passed by the Congress, it will continue in force nationwide. The phases of,deescalation in the different territories are approved by the minister of Health, advised by an experts' committee that reviews the reports submitted by regional governments

Calvo has a tendency to say things in a strange way and I guess she's been mocked in Twitter, but that's only noise

[Skye]

So... the CIS published its new poll:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1262754345788960771

I noticed El País's Kiko Llaneras is, again, criticizing the pollster (The thread's obvs in Spanish):

https://twitter.com/kikollan/status/1262739444341174275

To sum up the tweets, he's roughly criticizing the way they are asking the questions, arguing they might be biased.

[Velasco]

The new extension of the state of alarm has been passed with the support of Cs and PNV, but the relationship between the government and ERC is strained. MP votes in favour given the situation, but warning the majority that voted the investiture is disbanding. Cs remarks that it's not a permanent ally of the government, while ERC complains that Sánchez is turning to the oranges and votes against the extension for the second time. Total opposition from PP and Vox with the usual rhetoric

Take the CIS estimation with tons of salt. I suspect that most polls will be ''performative'' from now on, so I'll put the whole polling industry in quarantine.

[Velasco]

A deal to repeal the Rajoy's labor reform was made with Bildu, in order to secure its abstention to pass the last extension of the state of alarm. While I'm personally in favour to repeal -totally or partially- that labour legislation, the deal was so awkwardly negotiated that has created a lot of confusion. A deal that irritates employers and unions equally, endangers social dialogue and weakens the coalition government is undoubtedly a huge political mistake. The negoiation with Bildu was conducted by Adfriana lastra (PSOE) and Pablo Echenique (Podemos), without the knowledge of most cabinet members including minister of Economy Nadia Calviño ( an independent technocrat who worked for the EU Commission) and Labour minister Yolanda Díaz (UP member linked to the CCOO union). Nadia Calviño voiced her opposition to the total repeal and has consolidated her position within the government, while Yolanda Díaz has been bypassed and weakened. The deal with its main rival in the basque Country has irritated the PNV as well, while the relationship with other allies like Compromís is strained. Cs has remained silent, but the government's blunder strengthen its position. A weker government is not good news for the country, considering the emergency situation and the destructiveness of PP and Vox.

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-05-21/confusion-reigns-over-government-deal-with-basque-nationalist-party-to-overturn-labor-reform.html

The approval of the fifth extension to the state of alarm by Spain’s Congress of Deputies yesterday ended with a political mess.

After the exceptional measures were approved by the lower house of parliament, news emerged of an agreement between the coalition government – led by the Socialist Party (PSOE) and junior partner Unidas Podemos – and the Basque nationalist group EH Bildu to repeal a 2012 labor reform. The pro-independence party, it emerged, had secured the deal with the government in exchange for abstaining at Wednesday’s key vote to push the end of the state of alarm to June 7.

The text of the agreement began with a commitment by the government to overturn the 2012 legislation, which was passed by the main opposition Popular Party (PP) while it was in power, and which, among other things, gave companies in Spain more flexibility to sack employees. The Wednesday agreement specified that the government should repeal the law before the end of the “extraordinary measures” that are in place to combat the coronavirus crisis – i.e. the state of alarm (...)

But given the controversy that the deal caused among the political opposition, hours later, at around midnight, the PSOE released an “explanatory note” in which it rectified what had been agreed in the first point of the deal. Instead of the complete repeal of the 2012 legislation, the PSOE and its junior partner agreed on a vague commitment to recover “the labor rights taken away by the 2012 labor reform.” The pledge is included in the governing pact reached by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Unidas Podemos chief Pablo Iglesias in December, ahead of the creation of their coalition government.  

Madrid, Barcelona and the remaining parts of the country move to Phase 1 of deescalation, while half of Spain moves to Phase 2 next monday. Foreign tourist will be able to return in July (Spain is taking ore precautions than Italy)

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-05-23/spanish-pm-foreign-tourists-will-be-able-to-return-to-spain-from-july.html

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez held a press conference on Saturday afternoon to discuss the latest measures being taken by his government during the ongoing coronavirus crisis, announcing, among other things, that the tourist sector should start to prepare for the upcoming summer season and that Spain’s top-flight La Liga soccer league would be restarting games at the beginning of next month.

“The hardest part is over,” the Socialist Party (PSOE) leader said about the Covid-19 epidemic, which has left more than 28,000 dead in Spain according to official figures. “We are seeing light at the end of the tunnel. Now the epicenter has moved to other parts of the planet, as is happening, for example, on the American continent. The response of the Spanish people has been formidable. Everyone has fulfilled their mission and they came together to deal with the epidemic (...)

[Velasco]

Just another political storm, this time triggered by the decision of the Interior minister to dismiss a Civil Guard officer. I have to say that Grande Marlaska has every right to dismiss an officer he distrusts. Also, according to some media (El País or eldiario.es) the report on the March 8 marches is full of inaccuracies and half truths. Additionally this Pérez de los Cobos was one of the main culprits for the Spanish government's fiasco in Catalonia during the October 2017 mock referendum. Anyway the details concerning this new controversy are less relevant than the context. In a few words: the government is fragile and commits one mistake after the other, while the opposition is launching a fierce campaign of harassment and destabilization. Neither Spain is Venezuela nor the rightwing opposition represents a viable alternative for the country

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-05-27/civil-guard-dismissal-sparks-political-row-in-spain.html

he head of the Civil Guard command in Madrid, Colonel Diego Pérez de los Cobos, was sacked on Monday in a move that Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska described yesterday as part of “a reasonable, normal policy of building a new team.”

But the dismissal follows a report sent by the Civil Guard to a Madrid judge who is investigating alleged links between public events authorized by the government in early March and the spread of the coronavirus.

The Civil Guard’s second-in-command, Lieutenant General Laurentino Ceña, resigned shortly after learning of Pérez de los Cobos’ dismissal, and on Wednesday, a session inside Spanish Congress focused largely on the issue (...)  

Better news: Spain could get 140 billion from EU's recovery plan

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-05-27/spain-could-get-140-billion-from-eus-covid-19-recovery-plan.html

Spain could be assigned €77 billion in grants and €63 billion in loans from a €750-billion Covid-19 recovery program that was announced by the European Commission on Wednesday.

EU sources said that Spain may be getting a total of €140 billion to help shore up its economy, which is expected to contract by anywhere between 9% and 13% as a result of the coronavirus lockdown, according to the latest estimates by the Bank of Spain.

This would make Spain the second top beneficiary of the financial assistance after Italy, EU sources told the EFE news agency.  

These things are the truly important, not the shameful debates in Congress between the Marchioness Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo and the Deputy PM Pablo Iglesias

[Velasco]

Basque Country poll: Gizaker/EiTB

EAJ-PNV 31 seats (41%)
EH Bildu 19 seats (23.4%)
PSE-EE / PSOE 12 seats (14.2%)
Elkarrekin Podemos 8 seats (11.4%)
PP+Cs 5 seats (7%)

Gains: PNV 3 seats (+3.6%), PSE-EE 3 seats (+2.8%), EH Bildu 1 seat (+2.3%)
Loses; PP+Cs 4 seats (-5.1%), Elkarrekin Podemos 3 seats (-3.5%)

https://www.eitb.eus/es/noticias/politica/detalle/7262013/eitb-focus-encuesta-intencion-voto-elecciones-vascas-12-julio-2020/

Galicia poll: NC Report / La Razón

PP 39/40 seats (46.2%)
PSOE 18/19 seats (22.8%)
BNG 11 seats (15.9%)
Galicia en Común 6 seats (7.6%)

Gains: BNG 5 seats (+7.6%), PSOE 4/5 seats (+4.9%)
Loses: GeC 8 seats (-11.5%), PP 1/2 seats (-1.4%)

 https://www.larazon.es/espana/20200525/7r3gazqa4fbj7omdkdi5icr65e.html

Both regional assemblies total 75 seats (majority: 38).

Vox would get 1.7% in Basque Country and 3.5% in Galiica. Cs would get 1.2% in Galicia

As for the rest of national parties, these results would be a great success for the PP moderate Núñez Feijoó in Galicia and a big failure for the Basque PP hardliner Carlos Iturgáiz (appointed by Pablo Casado in replacement of the dismissed regional leader Alfonso Alonso)

PSOE makes gains in both regions ar the expense of the UP allies

Nationalist advance in the Basque Country (PNV might be gaining some PP moderate voters, while EH Bildu might be gaining at Podemos expense) and BNG surge in Galicia at the expense of GeC (formerly En Marea)

Opinion polling for the next Spanish General Election

Average polling points to a increase around 3% for the PP (23.3% according to Key Data, which is a "poll of polls") and a slight decrease for PSOE (27.8%, Key Data), Vox (14.1%), UP (12.1%) and Cs (6.8%)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

[Velasco]

The long awaited guaranteed minimum income scheme has been approved today

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-05-29/spain-to-approve-guaranteed-minimum-income-scheme-for-vulnerable-families.html

he Spanish Cabinet approved on Friday a guaranteed minimum income scheme set to help 850,000 vulnerable families. It is not the first welfare program of its kind in Spain: there are already 17 different schemes in Spain run by each of the regional governments. But the distribution of this aid is very uneven and only reaches around 300,000 homes. The new scheme from the Social Security Ministry will nearly triple that figure. It will also be compatible with the regional aid, according to Social Security Ministry José Luis Escrivá.

Speaking at a press conference on Friday, Finance Minister María Jesús Montero called the guaranteed minimum income scheme “a giant step in the fight against inequality in our country.” The program aims to lift around 1.6 million people out of extreme poverty, a group that represents 12.4% of the population, compared with the EU average of 6.9%. And 26.1% of the population is at risk of poverty, meaning that they are living on less than 60% of the median income, or €8,871 a year.

“Today is a historic day for our democracy,” added Deputy Prime Minister Pablo Iglesias (...) 

[Former President tack50]

Honestly I do not like that this stacks on top of the regional aid. I am in favour of this policy but it should replace the different regional minimum income schemes.

Tbh the lack of separation between regional powers and "federal" powers is one of my biggest complaints in terms of the current administrative structure of Spain but that is not getting solved any time soon

[Velasco]

Honestly I do not like that this stacks on top of the regional aid. I am in favour of this policy but it should replace the different regional minimum income schemes.

Tbh the lack of separation between regional powers and "federal" powers is one of my biggest complaints in terms of the current administrative structure of Spain but that is not getting solved any time soon

I agree on the second part, but personally I do not mind the national scheme is complementing regional schemes (it's something like "co-governance"). As for the policy itself, it's necessary as long as our economies can't provide full employment (and it's going to be worse with the ongoing automation). I think it's a big hypocrisy to criticize subsidies without giving subsidized people opportunities to make a living. Poverty and social exclusion are too high in Spain for a developed country

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez secured the last state of alarm extension with 177 affirmative votes (including PNV and Cs) and 18 abstain (including ERC). While the pandemic is apparently under control and the country moves through the deescalation phases to the "new normality", there is a mountingpolitical tension with heavy attacks from PP and VOX. Regarding the controversy on the dismissal of the Guardia Civl top officer Pérez de los Cobos, the doltishness of a Director general gives ammunition to the right that demands the head of minister Grande Marlaska (writing in a document the reason to dismiss someone is not revealing the content of a report commissioned by the judge is blatantly stupid, even though there are good reasons to fire a man who is hostile to the government and is working to undermine it it from the inside).

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-06-03/after-bitter-debate-in-congress-spains-pm-secures-extension-to-state-of-alarm.html

  Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez took advantage on Wednesday of a debate in the Congress of Deputies to call for support from other parties with the objective of “facilitating the transformation of the economy to another, more sustainable model,” in a bid to deal with the destruction caused by the coronavirus crisis.

The Socialist Party (PSOE) leader, who heads a coalition government with junior partner Unidas Podemos, was speaking in Spain’s lower house of parliament today at a vote to extend the state of alarm for a sixth and final time. The emergency powers have been in place since March 14, with the aim of halting the spread of the coronavirus. After an at times bitter debate, Sánchez won the vote to keep the state of alarm in place until June 21, with 177 votes in favor. The abstention of the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) and the support of the Basque Nationalist Party and Ciudadanos (Citizens) was key to the legislation passing.

Sánchez announced to lawmakers during the session that the Cabinet will next week approve a Royal Decree that will unite all of the measures and health regulations that will be in place as Spain exits the crisis, and that will be implemented jointly with the country’s regional governments until a vaccine against the Covid-19 disease is available.

As the coronavirus crisis has progressed, criticism of the government by the opposition at these debates – which have been held every two weeks during the state of alarm – has grown increasingly fierce.

Today Sánchez called on groups such as the conservative Popular Party (PP) and far-right Vox not to use the Spanish flag as a symbol against Spaniards. But his appeals did nothing to placate PP chief Pablo Casado, who once again delivered a relentless attack on the prime minister, citing all of the controversies and scandals that have affected the PSOE administration since Pedro Sánchez took power in 2018 thanks to a motion of no confidence he won against then-PP Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. (...)

Some polls pointing there's a strong rejection to the climate of political tension. According to Metroscoia, VOX and PP are perceived as the parties that create more tension, followed by UP, PSOE and Cs. On the other hand, the conservative pollster Narciso Michavila (GAD3) warns that tension builders might have to pay a high electoral price. But Pablo Casado persists in the strategy disregarding these warnings and despite the displeasure of some people in his party like the Galicia premier Núñez Feijóo. Possibly the aim of the PP leader is to maintain tension and try to destabilize the government, with the focus on next autumn. Then Pedro Sánchez will have to face a critical moment, as he needs to negotiate a budget with the different parties and control possible pandemic outbreaks. I have read that maybe the goal of the PP's strategy is not to win an unlikely rightwing majority in Congress, but to replace the pSOE as the first party and lead a "concentration" government with the socialists in a subordinated position and the head of Sánchez severed. In any case, it's highly unlikely we go to general elections this year. 

Half of the country moving to phase 3 tomorrow

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-06-05/more-than-half-of-spain-moving-to-phase-3-of-coronavirus-deescalation-plan-on-monday.html

he Spanish Health Ministry announced on Friday that it had approved every region’s request to move to a new stage of the coronavirus deescalation plan. This means that more than half of the country will be in Phase 3 by Monday, June 8, while Madrid region and the city of Barcelona will be allowed to enter Phase 2.

“Fifty-two percent of the population will be in Phase 3,” said Health Minister Salvador Illa at a government press conference on Friday. “We are in the final stage, but we are still in the deescalation process,” he added.

The following areas will move to Phase 3: Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, Basque Country, La Rioja, Navarre, Aragon, Extremadura, Andalusia, Murcia, the Balearic islands of Mallorca, Menorca and Ibiza, and the Canary islands of Tenerife, Gran Canaria, La Palma, Lanzarote and Fuerteventura.

The state of alarm will end in a couple of weeks and we'll have regional elections in Galicia and Basque Country on July 12 (if nothing untoward happens)

[Velasco]

Spain is no longer under the State of Alarm. The so-called 'new normality' began yesterday

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-06-21/spains-new-normality-the-new-rules-region-by-region.html

Most of Spain left behind more than three months under a state of alarm on Sunday, entering the so-called “new normality,” in which social distancing of 1.5 meters is still required, and masks must be worn when that is not possible. Galicia was the first region to leave behind the government’s coronavirus deescalation phases, entering the new normality on Monday, while the Basque Country, Cantabria and Catalonia made the change on Friday.

Limits on capacity in commercial premises are now in place in nearly all regions, and this will remain the case until either an effective treatment or vaccine for the coronavirus is found. If there are major outbreaks in Spain, a state of alarm may well be introduced once more (...)

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo

PSOE 28.7% (+0.7%)
PP 26% (+5.2%)
UP 12% (-0.8%)
VOX 11.7% (-3.4%)
Cs 8.3% (+1.5%)

PP leader Pablo Casado, Vox leader Santiago Abascal and Finance minister María Jesús Montero (PSOE) attended pre-campaign acts yesterday in Galicia. Premier Alberto Núñez Feijoó (PP) is strongly positioned, according to polls

Sondaxe poll for La Voz de Galicia

PP 46.7% (41 seats)
PSOE 21.3% (15 seats)
BNG 15.2% (12 seats)
GeC* 10.4% (7 seats)

*_{Galicia en Común: Podemos, IU, Anova, Mareas}

[Skye]

If they PP loses the majority by, say, one seat, Feijoó is out right? No way they can reach a deal with the other parties I assume?

[Former President tack50]

If they PP loses the majority by, say, one seat, Feijoó is out right? No way they can reach a deal with the other parties I assume?

Unless Vox or Cs somehow has said remaining seat (which is very unlikely) yeah, Feijoo is out. For him it is either 38 seats or bust.

In any other case, PSOE, BNG and UP will rule together.

[Velasco]

If they PP loses the majority by, say, one seat, Feijoó is out right? No way they can reach a deal with the other parties I assume?

Unless Vox or Cs somehow has said remaining seat (which is very unlikely) yeah, Feijoo is out. For him it is either 38 seats or bust.

In any other case, PSOE, BNG and UP will rule together.

Polls in Galicia show that regional PP collects nearly all the voters right of the centre, while the voters left of the centre are splitted in three viable parties. This factor gives a relative advantage to Feijóo under the D'Hondt system. Other factors working in his favour are the PP's grip on the region, a consolidated leadership, the low impact of the covid-19 in the region, the lack of sandals and controversies, the low appeal or name recognition of the opposition leaders, etcetera. The main threat to Feijóo is a big mobilization of the left, so it's not in his interest to exacerbate political tension and division. That's one of the main reasons why the Galician premier is not very happy with the aggressive tones of the national PP, even though polls suggest his position is fairly safe.  

[Velasco]

CIS pre-election survey

Apparently the controversial Félix Tezanos has adjusted the methodology to a more standard prediction. Despite most of the recent CIS surveys are "performative", Mr Tezanos tries to make good predictions in pre-election surveys and it's worth remembering the CIS was more spotted on than other pollsters in April 2019 (but not in the following elections)

Galicia

PP 46% (40-42 seats)
PSOE 19.5% (16-18 seats)
BNG 16.8% (12-14 seats)
GeC 7.2% (4-6 seats)

Prediction by province:

 -A Coruña: PP 47.3, PSOE 19.3, BNG 18.4, GeC 7.4, En Marea 2.1, Cs 1.9, Vox 0.7, Others 2.9
-Pontevedra: PP 43, PSOE 19.7, BNG 16.2, GeC 8.5, En Marea 4.1, Cs 2.3, Vox 1.7, Others 4.5
-Lugo: PP 48.1, PSOE 19.8, BNG 15.7, GeC 4.7, En Marea 2.8, Vox 2.0, Cs 1.4, Others 4.5
-Ourense: PP 48.1, PSOE 18.9, BNG 13.8, GeC 5.5, Cs 3-4, En Marea 2.6, Vox 2.6, Others 5.1

Vote transfers 2016-2020:

PP: PP 86, PSOE 1, BNG 1, Vox 2, Cs 1
En Marea: PP 1, PSOE 12, BNG 31, GeC 32, En Marea 9
PSOE: PP 10, PSOE 63, BNG 6, GeC 2, Cs 1, En Marea 1
BNG: PP 4, PSOE 6, BNG 72, GeC 3, En Marea 1
Didn't vote: PP 29, PSOE 8, BNG 10, GeC 4, Vox 2, En Marea 2

Average score (0-10 scale) and level of knowledge

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) 5.9 100%
Gonzalo Caballero (PSOE) 4.9 84%
Ana Pontón (BNG) 5.1 75%
Antón Gómez-Reino (GeC) 3.9 51%
Beatriz Pinto (Cs) 3.2 30%
Pancho Casal (En Marea) 3.2 29%
Ricardo Moreno-Fajardo (Vox) 3.0 27%

Basque Country

EAJ-PNV  40.8% (31-34 seats)
EH Bildu 19% (16-18 seats)
PSE-EE 15.2% (11-13 seats)
Elkarrekin Podemos 14.9% (11-12 seats)
PP+Cs 5.9% (3-6 seats)

Results by province:

-Álava/Araba: EAJ-PNV 35.3, EH Bildu 18, PSE-EE 17.9, EP 14.7, PP+Cs 9
Guipúzcoa/Gipuzkoa: EAJ-PNV 41.8, EH Bildu 24.9, PSE-EE 13.7, EP 12,7, PP+Cs 3.7
Vizcaya/Bizkaia: EAJ-PNV 41.7, EH Bildu 15.7, PSE-EE 15.2, EP 16.3, PP+Cs 6.3

Vote transfers 2016-2020

EAJ-PNV: EAJ-PNV 78, EH Bildu 3, PSE-EE 3, EP 1, PP+Cs 1, Others 1
EH Bildu: EAJ-PNV 3, EH Bildu 84, PSE-EE 1, EP 3, Others 2
Elkarrekin Podemos: EAJ-PNV 7, EH Bildu 9, PSE-EE 3, EP 64, Others 5
PSOE: EAJ-PNV 7, EH Bildu 1, PSE-EE 75, EP 5, PP+Cs 1, Others 3
PP+Cs: EAJ-PNV 11, PSE-EE 7, PP+Cs 43, Others 8

Average score(0-10) and level of knowledge

Íñigo Urkullu 5.9 99%
Maddaln Iriarte (EH Bildu) 5.1 63%
Idoia Mendia (PSE-EE) 4.8 82%
Miren Gorrotxategi (EP) 4.7 57%
Carlos Iturgáiz (PP+Cs) 2.3 85%
Nicolás Gutiérrez (Vox) 2.6 35%

It's remarkable the low name recognition of Maddalen Iriarte, but keep in mind the actual EH Bildu leader is Arnaldo Otegi. Take for granted everybody in the Basque Country knows him. On the opposite side, the veteran Carlos Iturgáiz is well known and broadly disliked

Edit: I misnaned Mr Otegi before. It was the ghost of Xabier Arzalluz

[Former President tack50]

Well, looks like the 2 elections will be snoozefests unfortunately (there is a small chance of an upset in Galicia but not much)

Anyways, it is worth noting that Catalonia will probably have an election at some point this year so I will be looking forward to that one more than these 2

[crals]

Is there any major difference between BNG, GeC and En Marea?

[Velasco]

Is there any major difference between BNG, GeC and En Marea?

That's a good question, I think there are little differences between the three and they are mostly related to their degree of regionalism or Galician nationalism. The BNG is a leftwing nationalist organization that has shifted in recent years to more a more accentuated sovereigntism, in the line of EH Bildu in the Basque Country and ERC in Catalonia. En Marea (2016) and Galicia en Común (2020) are heterogeneous coalitions incorporating federalist or soft nationalist organizations like Podemos and IU (Esquerda Unida), alongside nationalist or sovereigntist elements like Anova (a BNG split) and the current En Marea group (a breakaway bound to fail that may hurt the chances of the viable parties in the left). Additionally Galicia en Común (and En Marea in 2016) incorporates some local parties also called Mareas ("Tides"), such as Marea Atlántica (led by former A Coruña mayor Xulio Ferreiro) or Compostela Oberta. There have been fruitless calls in previous months to unite all the forces to the left of the PSOE.

Well, looks like the 2 elections will be snoozefests unfortunately (there is a small chance of an upset in Galicia but not much)

Anyways, it is worth noting that Catalonia will probably have an election at some point this year so I will be looking forward to that one more than these 2

Maybe they don't look very exciting on paper, but they are actual elections and I wouldn't rule out some surprises in this strange world of today. Of course it's important to keep an eye in Catalonia. The coronavirus crisis gave Torra a respite, but the relationship between JxCAT and ERC is completely strained to the point their cabinet members are no longer a united government. The PP-Cs coalition government in Madrid is also splitted in two and premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso was considering to call elections. She was told not to move forward, in order to preserve the PP-Cs coalitions in Andalusia, Castilla y León and Murcia. Regarding to this, it's worth noting that the regions ruled by the PP (all in coalition with Cs usually propped up by Vox, except Galicia) represent more than a half of the Spain's population. This is the main base of power for a party that has performed very bad in recent times. All the PP premiers tend to be more moderate than Pablo Casado, with the notable exception of Ayuso in Madrid. Regarding the two upcoming elections, one of the main points of interest will be the predictably uneven PP performance...

[Velasco]

Sigma Dos poll for the región of Madrid

PP 43 seats (31.9%)
PSOE 40 seats (29.5%)
Cs 14 seats (10.8%)
Más Madrid 14 seats (10.3%)
Vox 11 seats (8 4%)
UP 10 seats (7.8%)

Gains (seats): PP 13, PSOE 3, UP 3
Loses (seats): Cs 12, MM 6, Vox 1

Cs would still hold the keys of the regional assembly

[Velasco]

The last Gizaker poll for the EITB (Basque Country public broadcaster) predicts a slightly different result from the CIS. The main divergence is the Elkarrekin Podemos (EP) performance.

EAJ-PNV 32 seats (41.7%)
EH Bildu 19 (22.6%)
PSE-EE 11 (14.4%)
EP 8 (11.4%)
PP+Cs 5 (6.9%)
Vox 0 (2%)

Comfortable majority for the PNV-PSOE coalition. The PNV would get a result similar to that of Carlos Garaikoetxea in 1984, one seat below the best historical result (Juan José Ibarretxe in 2001, PNV-EA coalition). Certain corruption scandals in Alava involving PNV members and a recent landfill disaster haven't damaged the acting government. There is also a narrow leftwing majority with EH Bildu, PSOE and EP totalling 38 seats. The main advocate of this alternative is Podemos, but EH Bildu and PSOE reject it. Similarly the Podemos allies in Catalonia advocate a leftwing tripartite alliance, rejected by ERC and PSC. It's up to see if alliances could change in Catalonia, but it seems very unlikely a change in the Basque Country after this election

[Former President tack50]

Ok so today there were incidents at a Vox rally in Sestao (Basque Country), which is basically a suburb of Bilbao located on the "márgen izquierda" (the most Spanish unionist area of Viscay and the Bilbao metropolitan area, although it is also very left wing)

The police had to intervene to stop protestors from causing violence and what not, with said protestors throwing food, eggs and even stones to the Vox people. Vox MP Rocío de Meer was injured.

Vox is blaming PNV for allowing the protest to take place and criticizing the police response for not ensuring their safety.

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4305916/0/cargas-policiales-antifascistas-boicotear-mitin-abascal-sestao/


In other news, the Spanish government is starting to prepare a "Telecommuting bill" as part of the response to the coronavirus, but also to generally improve telecommuting and put in placer a bill to regulate how it can be done. The bill has been criticized by Spanish Confederation of Business Organizations (CEOE), basically the main voice of business inn the country.

The main points of the bill seem to be:

> Telecommuting must be voluntary and not forced by the company.
> The company must pay for all the necessary equipment to telecommute, and the employee must not pay for any of the necessary things to be able to telecommute. This is the point where the Government and business organizations are clashing the most by far; and the most controversial point of the bill
> People telecommuting shall have the right to flexibility in their working hours
> While corporations can put in placer some controls, these controls must not be intrusive or dipsproportionate and attack the employee's right to intimacy. However the controls are put in place by the employer.
> The employee has a right to be completely disconnected outside their working hours and this right must be guaranteed by their employer

Telecommuting is intended to be voluntary, but prioritary for people with small children and victims of terrorism or gender violence

Tbh I hate telecommuting but a bill like this is a great idea and a bill I fully support.

https://www.20minutos.es/noticia/4305239/0/claves-ley-teletrabajo-prepara-gobierno-sanchez-podemos-trabajo/

[Velasco]

Congress greenlighted the 'new normality' decree and this time the PP didn't vote with Vox and the separatists. New outbreaks raise concern and provoke a partial lockdown comeback in some parts of Aragon

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-06-25/spain-approves-new-normality-rules-as-covid-19-cases-rise.html

The World Health Organization (WHO)‘s regional director for Europe, Hans Kluge, on Thursday praised Spain and several other countries for responding quickly to new coronavirus outbreaks, but warned that the continent is experiencing a resurgence in cases as restrictions are lifted.

Spain, which lifted its state of alarm on Sunday, yesterday reported the highest number of new daily infections in three weeks, and health experts are expressing concern about the public’s increasingly relaxed attitude towards prevention measures.

A Red Cross refugee center in Málaga has had an outbreak with 80 positive cases, including workers, volunteers and migrants living at the facility. In Navalmoral de la Mata (Cáceres), authorities have launched a search for an individual at the origin of an outbreak with 20 confirmed and 30 suspected cases who has gone missing. And in Andalusia, authorities are investigating two potential outbreaks in Granada and Huelva. Officials have reported five active clusters across the southern region.

The spike in infections comes as the lower house of parliament, the Congress of Deputies, on Thursday approved a government decree setting out the rules of Spain’s “new normality” following one of the world’s strictest lockdowns.

The decree was introduced by the coalition government of the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the leftist Unidas Podemos group, and backed by the main opposition Popular Party (PP), Ciudadanos (Citizens) and the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) for a total of 265 votes in favor. The far-right Vox, the far-left Basque party EH Bildu, and the Catalan separatists of Together for Catalonia and Catalan Republican Left (ERC) voted against.  

The official electoral campaign began today at 00:00 CET in Galicia and the Basque Country. Pedro Sánchez will be tomorrow in Ourense (Galicia) and the following day in San Sebastián (Basque Country). Some socialist cabinet members will be involved in the campaign, including Health minister Salvador Illa. Pablo Iglesias will attend at least one campaign act in Galicia and labour minister Yolanda Díaz will also campaign for Galicia en Común in her home region. Pablo Casado was in Galicia the first day after the state of alarm and will come back this weekend, with a rally scheduled tomorrow in Pontevedra with Alberto Núlez Feijóo and Mariano Rajoy. The PP leader will move to Vitoria on Sunday to support Carlos Iturgaiz. Vox leader Santiago Abascal attended a pre-campaign at in Mos (Pontevedra, Galicia) and secretary general Javier Ortega Smith attended an a rally past Sunday in Gipuzkoa and was booed by radical Basque nationalists. The number of persons attending rallies is restricted in order to preserve safety distance.

Galicia and the Basque Country were the first regions moving from the state of alarm to the 'new normality, Galicia on June 15 and Basque Country on June 19 alongside Cantabria and Catalonia. Basque premier Iñigo Urkullu met Cantabria premier Miguel Ángel Revilla at the border of their regions and melted in a symbolic hug to celebrate the recovered interregional mobility. Despite the pandemic is apparently under control, there is concern in both regions due to recent outbreaks in the three Basque provinces (50 cases in Basauri, Biscay), Lugo and A Coruña.

In other news, tomorrow will start the inaugural convention of the newly formed Nationalist Party of Catalonia (Partit Nacionalista de Catalunya, PNC). The main promoter of this party is a think tank called "The Country of Tomorrow" (El País de Demà) launched in September w2019 with 200 attendants convened, elements of the civil society and members of organizations like Lliure, Lliga Democràtica (Barcelona councilor Eva Parera) and Units per Avançar (the heir of the extinct UDC led by Ramon Espadaler). The leader of the new party will be in all likelihood Marta Pascal, the former coordinator of the PDECat (successor of CDC) that was replaced by the exiled leader Puigemont due to her pragmatic stance. Pascal was a senator and played a key role in the motion of no confidence against Mariano Rajoy, supporting the bid of Pedro Sánchez against the wishes of Puigdemont. Additionally former deputies and CDC veterans Carles Campuzano and Jordi Xuclà have left the PDECat recently. The new party intends to be the Catalan version of the PNV, a "centrist liberal" force supporting a pragmatic sovereigntism and a legal path for an agreed referendum. The PNC wants to run in the next Catalan elections and could eventually ally with Units per Avançar, which ran in recent elections incorporated in the PSC lists. Barcelona security councilor Albert Battle (elected in the PSC list) is member of the last organization and could be one of the contenders to lead the moderate nationalist space. The chances of success for the PNC are very uncertain, but it's an interesting development in the polarized Catalan politics

[Velasco]

Ok so today there were incidents at a Vox rally in Sestao (Basque Country), which is basically a suburb of Bilbao located on the "márgen izquierda" (the most Spanish unionist area of Viscay and the Bilbao metropolitan area, although it is also very left wing)

Sestao is possibly more left-wing than "unionist", even though the support for nationalist parties is lower than average due to the population with origins in other Spanish regions. The Left Side (Margen Izquierda) of the River Nervión is a traditional PSOE stronghold associated to the once thriving iron mining and steel industry. On the contrary, the Right Side (Margen Derecha) is more upper class and municipalities like Getxo had traditionally a strong PP vote. Aside from Getxo, the main PP strongholds are located in Álava and inner city districts like Abando in Bilbao.

[Former President tack50]

Ok so today there were incidents at a Vox rally in Sestao (Basque Country), which is basically a suburb of Bilbao located on the "márgen izquierda" (the most Spanish unionist area of Viscay and the Bilbao metropolitan area, although it is also very left wing)

Sestao is possibly more left-wing than "unionist", even though the support for nationalist parties is lower than average due to the population with origins in other Spanish regions. The Left Side (Margen Izquierda) of the River Nervión is a traditional PSOE stronghold associated to the once thriving iron mining and steel industry. On the contrary, the Right Side (Margen Derecha) is more upper class and municipalities like Getxo had traditionally a strong PP vote. Aside from Getxo, the main PP strongholds are located in Álava and inner city districts like Abando in Bilbao.

Yeah, the Abando neighbourhood might be arguably the most PP place in all of the Basque Country outside Álava. Iirc despite PP's bad result in 2016, they managed to get in 2nd there (a distant 2nd after PNV but still 2nd)



As for the PNC in Catalonia, they are going nowhere imo. If Unió in 2015 could not make it, in an era of Catalan politics that was less polarized than it is now, I doubt PNC makes it. I think they get like 1 or 1.5% of the vote.

[Velasco]

As for the PNC in Catalonia, they are going nowhere imo. If Unió in 2015 could not make it, in an era of Catalan politics that was less polarized than it is now, I doubt PNC makes it. I think they get like 1 or 1.5% of the vote.

The 2015 Catalán elections were hyper polarized, with a joint pro-independence list called Junts pel Si (CDC, ERC, independent associations) running and deemed a plebiscite by the supporters of Catalan independence. UDC managed to get. 2.5% of the vote (102k votes), which wasn't enough to win seats in the Parliament of Catalonia. Unió leader Josep Antoni Durán i Lleida ran unsuccessfully for Barcelona in the 2015 general elections and quitted politics thereafter.

Currently the Catalan nationalist and separatist forces are stronger than ever, but there is division within this camp. Polarization has diminished somewhat and there is certain fatigue after 10 or 12 years of procés. There is also an undetermined contingent of moderate nationalist voters that could embrace the proposals of the PNC. In order to have a chance of success, the new party coming from the moderate sector of the CDC must join forces with the heirs of Unió and other small groups emerged after the collapse of CiU. On the other hand, there is an ongoing process of reconfiguration within JxCAT. Tension between the PDECat (heir if CDC) and the Crida Nacional (group led by Jordi Sánchez, hardline separatist and more socially conservative) is increasing. The Crida and the independents close to Puigdemont demand that the PDECat dissolves into JxCAT, while there is division within the heirs of Convergencia. PDECat leadership refuses to dissapear, while the imprisoned Jordi Rull, Jordi Turull and Joaquim Forn allingn with Jordi Sánchez and the Crida. Currently the PDECat is openly pro-independence, but there are moderate and pragmatic elements coexisting with moreb hardline stances.

Who is who in the Catalan centre-right nationalism

https://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/politica/PDeCAT-Units-Lliga-Partit-Nacionalista_0_1042196280.html

Marta Pascal has been elected leader of the PNC. She calls to unite the different groups

https://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/politica/Marta-Pascal-Partit-Nacionalista-Catala_0_1042546030.html