Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

The government saves the day passing state of alarm extension in Congress

178 Yes: PSOE, UP, Cs, PNV, MP, Compromis, CC, PRC, NC, Teruel Existe

75 No: VOX, ERC, JxCAT, CUP

97 Abstain: PP, Bildu, Navarra Suma

PP backed previous extensions, but Casado pressed the fragile coalition government threatening to vote against. This move, alongside ERC moving from abstention to No, forced Sánchez to negotiate with Cs and PNV. Finally Casado had to justify the PP abstention because of the concessions made by the government to Cs and PNV, which is weird. ERC voting against is possibly a consequence of competition with the other Catalan separatists, while its Basque partner Bildu abstained. The government's deal with Cs angered ERC on the one hand and Vox on the opposing side. Momentary relief for Sánchez and momentary tactical defeat for Casado. However, the government lacks a solid majority, as the Cs and PNV support is conditioned. Arrimadas said she's still in the opposition and the government has only 155 seats, but offers to negotiate a reconstruction budget. The situation is extremely complicated for Sánchez, even though he clearly works better under extreme pressure. Needless to say the economic perspective is gloomy and that's not his fault, but he will be dead by next year unless some relief cones from the outside...

This month the government could approve the so-called Vital Minimum Income, opposed by the right but necessary for the poorer fanilies under current circumstances

[Velasco]

Apparently there is a Spanish version of the Canada/Israel meme, so enjoy I suppose!

I am personally at the quad point between socialist, leftist cuñado, republican and europist

Why are the Basque Nationalists on the far right?

I have absolutely no idea tbh. I suppose that "because they care only about money" or something like that lol

Either way I did not make this.

How many Hapsburg nostalgics, CNT-FAI anarchists and Carlists remain in Spain nowadays? I would argue close to zero, even though I have met some anarchists (but they are very few). There are plenty of 'cuñados' and bad internet memes, that's for sure

36 different categories, so a few will be fairly niche by definition

Contemporary societies and markets are increasingly fragmented into multiple niches. My problem with this meme is simply that it's not very good. Some of the types are way too anachronistic, such as the Carlist, the CNT-FAI member and obviously the Falangist: they only exist as relics from the past (I was in awe when an old anarchist friend once told me that Durruti's FAI still exists!) The Francoist boomer or the Francoist elder make sense, as there's still people saying that life under Franco was better and that's possibly a VOX base of support. Some of the types are not very well pirtrayed, such as 'The Rojo'. The word 'rojo' means ''red'' and applies to all leftists or republicans, generally as a Francoist insult. 'Facha' is just the opposite to 'Rojo', it's a derogatory word equivalent to ''fascist'' used by leftists to insult Francoists and rightwingers. For instance Vox leader Santiago Abascal is deemed a ''facha'', although the Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias told him recently he's not a fascist but a ''parasite''. The expression 'cuñado' (brother in law) is not used to describe a hack as the meme says, but to ridiculize certain ignorant people talking like experts in all subjects and pontificating about everything. Of course a pandemic is an excellent occasion to show the epidemiologist inside every one of us (we don't have a clue actually, we are just pathetic 'cuñados')

[mileslunn]

How likely is it that the budget will pass?  And if it fails will there be another election which could be dangerous if there is a second wave or do they just rollover the budget again from previous years which could problematic?  I think though after a vaccine is developed could be an election although doesn't look like either side would win a majority but things could change.

[Velasco]

How likely is it that the budget will pass?  And if it fails will there be another election which could be dangerous if there is a second wave or do they just rollover the budget again from previous years which could problematic?  I think though after a vaccine is developed could be an election although doesn't look like either side would win a majority but things could change.

Budget: Hard to tell. Last vote in Congress showed ERC is distancing from the government and approaching that strange convergence between the Spanish right and the Puigdemont faction of Catalan separatism. On the other hand, the move made by Cs opens new possibilities to negotiate a 'reconstruction budget' and also with regards the European stage (Cs is still within the EU liberals), even though the Arrimadas support to the state of alarm extension is by no means the beginning of a stable alliance. With regards the PP-Cs coalition governments in some regions, they will remain in place. Right now there is a crisis within the Madrid regional goverment led by Isabel Diaz Ayuso and the relationship between partners is strained, but Cs is not going to break

Elections: I think that by no means a general election will take place without a vaccine, but without a budget passed it's hard to see the government lasting beyond 2021

As part of the agreement with the PNV, Basque elections could take place in July 2020. By the moment the Galicia premier is not seconding. In what regards Catslonia, ERC would like elections as soon as possible (Puigdemont and Torra are not interested at all and election date will be potponed as far as possible)

In the news: next week half of Spain will move to phase 1 of de-escalation, but Madrid and Barcelona will stay in phase 0. All regions except Catalonia and Castilla y León requested passing to the next phase. The administration has rejected the Madrid region’s request to transition to Phase 1, “opting to wait until its primary care detection system is more robust”

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-05-08/spanish-government-announces-areas-that-will-move-to-the-next-phase-of-coronavirus-deescalation-plan-on-monday.html

[parochial boy]

75 No: VOX, ERC, JxCAT, CUP

That alliance needs to continue

[Velasco]

75 No: VOX, ERC, JxCAT, CUP

That alliance needs to continue

These alignments are undoubtedly one of the wonders of Spanish politics

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-05-06/spanish-congress-approves-fourth-extension-to-state-of-alarm.html

Sánchez, who announced this morning that the country will have an official period of mourning for its Covid-19 victims “when most of the country is in Phase 1 of the deescalation,” sought to underscore his message that the state of alarm is necessary to defeat the coronavirus and that this legal tool is not encroaching on citizens’ freedoms.

“All rights remain intact, not a single liberty has been violated. Just two of them have been limited, freedom of movement and to ensure public health and save lives,” he said. “We need to limit freedom of movement a few weeks more.” Sánchez insisted this is meant to prevent the spread of the virus, not “as a ruse to curtail liberties.”

But his words did not appear to convince PP leader Casado, who announced that because of the government’s most recent concessions, his 88 lawmakers would abstain rather than cast no votes. Casado was highly critical of the government during his speech, telling Sánchez that “the exceptional situation does not allow for a constitutional dictatorship.”  

Pedro Sánchez has many flaws and he should treat better his parliamentary allies (he made the mistake to neglect dialogue with the Basque government, while ERC believed mistakenly the PNV was about to topple the government), but he's not a ''constitutional dictator'' in the fashion of Viktor Orban (whose authoritarianism Pablo Casado's party refuses to condemn)

[Skye]

So about electomanía's ElectoPanel... I know it's not the best thing to have around because of the methodology (I think it's an open-access online poll), but they recently began publishing municipal-level estimates. I think it's interesting, even if you just think about the municipal numbers as just "educated guesses". Though they weren't too far off in the Nov. 2019 election.

Anyways, here's this week's poll. It shows the right with a decent lead: https://electomania.es/ep13my20

[Velasco]

So about electomanía's ElectoPanel... I know it's not the best thing to have around because of the methodology (I think it's an open-access online poll), but they recently began publishing municipal-level estimates. I think it's interesting, even if you just think about the municipal numbers as just "educated guesses". Though they weren't too far off in the Nov. 2019 election.

Anyways, here's this week's poll. It shows the right with a decent lead: https://electomania.es/ep13my20

I don't trust Electomania, rven though they are sometimes spotted on (not always). They lack transparency and accountability, imo. GAD3 pollster is releasing a 'barometer' for the conservative ABC newspaper. Narciso Michavila leans to the right, but is a good professional

https://www.gad3.com/single-post/2020/05/11/Nueva-entrega-del-Barometro-ABCGAD3-11-de-mayo

It seems that Feijóo is considering to call elections in July alongside Urkullu, so anyway we'll have polls for Galicia and Basque Country and actual election results to comment

[Former President tack50]

So about electomanía's ElectoPanel... I know it's not the best thing to have around because of the methodology (I think it's an open-access online poll), but they recently began publishing municipal-level estimates. I think it's interesting, even if you just think about the municipal numbers as just "educated guesses". Though they weren't too far off in the Nov. 2019 election.

Anyways, here's this week's poll. It shows the right with a decent lead: https://electomania.es/ep13my20

Yeah, their methodology is not the greatest but it is still fun nontheless.

Anyways looking at the municipal level estimates is very fun, especially the "flips" from their last "panel". This one in particular seems to come with 2 big cities flipping: Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (my own home town) and Zaragoza

[Velasco]

Spanish government passed a decree aimed at combating judicial standstill. Interestingly the majority was secured with the ERC support and Cs opposition. As posted before, the last state of alarm extension was passed with Cs support and ERC opposition. However, the Arrimadas party backed a second decree. These changing parliamentary majorities are called 'variable geometry' in Spain

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-05-13/spain-passes-decree-aimed-at-combatting-standstill-in-justice-system-due-to-coronavirus-crisis.html

Spain’s Congress of Deputies has approved a government decree adapting the justice system to the Covid-19 crisis, which has brought legal activity nearly to a standstill.

The decree introduces new working practices and procedures to keep the judiciary functioning. The need to overhaul Spain’s slow legal system has long been the subject of political debate, but little had been done to date. Now, the coronavirus pandemic has prompted new responses such as video hearings for labor and family court proceedings.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE), who heads a minority government in coalition with junior partner Unidas Podemos, has managed to secure enough congressional support for the decree despite opposition from right-of-center groups such as the Popular Party (PP) and Ciudadanos (Citizens).

Instead, the decree passed on Wednesday with 178 votes in favor, thanks to support from two smaller regional groups, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC). This latter party did not support Sánchez’s recent request for a fourth extension to the state of alarm that underpins Spain’s gradual deescalation measures.

The government has also successfully pushed through a second decree containing emergency measures against the effects of the coronavirus crisis on jobs and the economy. Ciudadanos backed this second initiative, which passed with 201 votes in favor, but it did not vote for the justice decree. However, Ciudadanos did support prolonging the government’s emergency powers last week (...)

The region of Madrid and Metropolitan Barcelona will stay in Phase 0 this week despite the protests of Madrid premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso (involved in a controversy on the rent of a luxury apartment where she was confined after testing positive for coronavirus). I think Ayuso is following Trump's handbook on communication strategy advised by Miguel Ángel Rodríguez, a man who worked for José María Aznar since late 1980s. According to a GAD3 poll for the conservative ABC, the controversial and confrontational Ayuso would win handily regional elections. However, according to Metroscopia a vast majority contradicts Ayuso opposing to accelerate deescalation in Madrid. Given these contradictory signals, the changing situation and the extreme confusion, I'd take polls with loads of salt

Anyways looking at the municipal level estimates is very fun, especially the "flips" from their last "panel". This one in particular seems to come with 2 big cities flipping: Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (my own home town) and Zaragoza

I doubt the Electomania team has a clue with regard politics in the Canary Islands (most people in mainland Spain is completely ignorant on many aspects of the islands). Also, local elections are more difficult to predict than general elections. Anyway I don't have a high opinion of LPGC mayor Augusto Hidalgo (I admit he's rather unknown to me, despite he's been mayor for several years), but I appreciate the Canary Islands premier Ángel Víctor Torres. The PSOE regional leader showed remarkable leadership skills during the terrible Gran Canaria fires in August 2019.

[Velasco]

Former IU leader (1989-2000) and mayor of Córdoba (1979-1986) Julio Anguita has died. Anguita (aged 78) was hospitalized week ago for a cardiorespiratory arrest

https://elpais.com/espana/2020-05-16/julio-anguita-lider-historico-de-izquierda-unida-muere-a-los-78-anos.html?autoplay=1

Pedro Sánchez will request a last extension to the state of alarm

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-05-16/spanish-pm-will-request-one-last-extension-of-the-state-of-alarm-this-time-for-a-month.html

As has become customary during the coronavirus crisis, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez made his weekly televised address on Saturday afternoon to offer an update on the current situation regarding the pandemic. He announced that he would be requesting a last extension to the state of alarm, this time for a month, and also said that the deescalation process could be completed in half of the country by the beginning of summer.

“This week we have received the first results from the seroprevalence survey,” he began by saying, in reference to testing being carried out among the Spanish population to determine how many people have been infected by the coronavirus. “It has brought three important pieces of data: the infection has affected different territories in very different ways, only 5% of Spaniards have been infected, and third, the death rate is at 1%.”

He also insisted that the state of alarm, which was implemented on March 14 in a bid to slow the spread of the coronavirus, had worked. “The path that we are taking is the only one possible,” he said, in reference to the use of the state of alarm to give the government special powers, including recentralizing healthcare from the regions to Madrid, and introducing the confinement measures that are still in place, and which have been among the strictest in the world.

The Socialist Party (PSOE) leader argued that the scientific facts have shown that a “herd immunity” approach would not have been successful, and defended the need to limit mobility and social contact. “That’s the logic behind the deescalation process,” he explained.

The revolt of the 1% against the 'coronavirus oppression' and the 'social-communist' regime. Interesting read

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-05-16/the-revolt-of-the-1-against-the-coronavirus-oppression-in-spain.html

Residents of Madrid’s upscale Salamanca neighborhood have been making headlines since Sunday with a series of street protests against the government over its handling of the coronavirus crisis.

Demonstrators have been using the words “dictatorial” and “oppression” to describe their situation under the ongoing lockdown. Madrid, the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, is still in the early stages of a national deescalation plan that is expected to end in late June, if there are no new spikes in transmission.

The protests reflect a view, held by some in Spain, that the state of alarm introduced in mid-March to combat the coronavirus pandemic is really an excuse for the central government to grab extra powers. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, of the Socialist Party (PSOE), heads a minority government and he has been facing growing difficulty to secure enough congressional support for back-to-back extensions to the state of alarm. 

[CumbrianLefty]

It must feel strange for the 1% to not be totally getting their way on everything, tbf.

[Velasco]

It must feel strange for the 1% to not be totally getting their way on everything, tbf.

It's funny because some of the protesters are actually Francoist (Vox is the second party in Núñez de Balboa street and the left gets below 10% of the vote there). Apparently Madrid premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso as seen at her luxury apartment hitting a saucepan, in protest against the 'social-communist' government. People in the Spanish right always look at the Republican Party and the communication strategies of the American right. Trump is an inspiration for Vox and for Ayuso

[EastAnglianLefty]

“We are in a dictatorial system, and I know what I’m talking about,” said Magdalena, a local resident who works as a lawyer.

Was I the only one mentally adding, "because I used to work for Franco" to this comment?

[Velasco]

“We are in a dictatorial system, and I know what I’m talking about,” said Magdalena, a local resident who works as a lawyer.

Was I the only one mentally adding, "because I used to work for Franco" to this comment?

Yes, I got the same impression. That Magdalena reminds me a bit someone that I know, a 60-something woman who openly says she's Francoist and supports Vox. The issue is that, despite our vast political differences, we are able to have a polite conversation and even to have a beer in a bar (providing that we avoid to engage in a political discussion, of course). I mean, there are still Francoists in Spain and a few of them (not all) can be polite enough to have a chat with them. The hyperbolic style of some politicians and the political polarization can give the impression that Spain is on the brink of another civil war, but currently the Spanish society is fairly tolerant. But political tension and confrontational attitudes (as well the social network poison) can affect the society during these times of crisis. The issue is that, despite the harsh rhetoric and insults, some politicians from opposing sides have a good personal relationship (case of Pablo Casado and Pablo Iglesias). So the only reason to fuel tension is electioneering. This tension (''crispación'' in Spanish) is not something new, it dates back to the 1990s and worsened after the Madrid bombings of 2004 (the PP launched a campaign against Zapatero resorting to conspiracy theories)

[CumbrianLefty]

and worsened after the Madrid bombings of 2004 (the PP launched a campaign against Zapatero resorting to conspiracy theories)

Tbf it can't have been pleasant to have been caught red-handed days before an election like that.

[Velasco]

and worsened after the Madrid bombings of 2004 (the PP launched a campaign against Zapatero resorting to conspiracy theories)

Tbf it can't have been pleasant to have been caught red-handed days before an election like that.

I don't think "caught red-handed" is the right expression. The Spanish government decided in those tragic moments not to face the Al Qaeda authorship, believing that PP could win the election telling people it was ETA. People felt cheated and a wave of indignation spread through the country. Instead of admitting that error and assuming responsibility, the Spanish right launched a campaign aimed at delegitimizing Zapatero. Aznar wasn't "caught red-handed" as he didn't put the bombs in the trains, but tried to mislead people and is fully responsible for that. Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, the unsuccessful PSOE leader who lost to Rajoy in 2011, made a sentence in those days that still upsets the PP: "we deserve a government which doesn't lie to us". The Rubalcaba sentence had a devastating effect because it was said in the right moment. Pablo Casado repeated that sentence recently to tell Pedro Sánchez that he's a liar, but it sounds out of comtext. It's pretty obvious the PP is still resentful for that defeat

[Former President tack50]

Galician premier Alberto Núñez Feijóo has finally called the new date for the next Galician regional election, for the 12th of July.

It is extremely likely that Basque premier Íñigo Urkullu will follow suit and call the election for the same date.

Edit: Yup, Basque election confirmed for the same day

[CumbrianLefty]

and worsened after the Madrid bombings of 2004 (the PP launched a campaign against Zapatero resorting to conspiracy theories)

Tbf it can't have been pleasant to have been caught red-handed days before an election like that.

I don't think "caught red-handed" is the right expression. The Spanish government decided in those tragic moments not to face the Al Qaeda authorship, believing that PP could win the election telling people it was ETA. People felt cheated and a wave of indignation spread through the country. Instead of admitting that error and assuming responsibility, the Spanish right launched a campaign aimed at delegitimizing Zapatero. Aznar wasn't "caught red-handed" as he didn't put the bombs in the trains, but tried to mislead people and is fully responsible for that. Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, the unsuccessful PSOE leader who lost to Rajoy in 2011, made a sentence in those days that still upsets the PP: "we deserve a government which doesn't lie to us". The Rubalcaba sentence had a devastating effect because it was said in the right moment. Pablo Casado repeated that sentence recently to tell Pedro Sánchez that he's a liar, but it sounds out of comtext. It's pretty obvious the PP is still resentful for that defeat

In this instance "caught red-handed" referred to the fibbing of course. I'm not one of the fringe cranks who suggests governments routinely bomb their own people in "false flag" operations

[mileslunn]

Galician premier Alberto Núñez Feijóo has finally called the new date for the next Galician regional election, for the 12th of July.

It is extremely likely that Basque premier Íñigo Urkullu will follow suit and call the election for the same date.

Edit: Yup, Basque election confirmed for the same day

With Spain still having over 1,000 new cases a day (they did fall below that today for one day), wouldn't it be better to wait until number of new cases close to zero?  Or at least ensure they have a mail in ballot option for those who don't want to risk going out, especially elderly and immune compromised.

[Former President tack50]

Galician premier Alberto Núñez Feijóo has finally called the new date for the next Galician regional election, for the 12th of July.

It is extremely likely that Basque premier Íñigo Urkullu will follow suit and call the election for the same date.

Edit: Yup, Basque election confirmed for the same day

With Spain still having over 1,000 new cases a day (they did fall below that today for one day), wouldn't it be better to wait until number of new cases close to zero?  Or at least ensure they have a mail in ballot option for those who don't want to risk going out, especially elderly and immune compromised.

In theory all elections in Spain have a vote by mail option, though it is opt in and not opt out.

As for why the election is so soon, common wisdom seems to suggest that Basque premier Urkullu wants the election as soon as possible so that he can run on what a great job the PNV has done over the past years and what not; instead of having to run with a bad economy. PNV has not had the greatest of performances during the coronavirus and they were coming off a couple corruption scandals.

PNV will win no doubt about it, but I suppose that the past few scandals will mean it will just be a standard landslide and not a massive blowout

As for Galicia, Feijoo seems to want the election on the same day as the Basques so that the Basque campaign overshadows the Galician campaign. He has done a good job with the coronavirus and does not really have many scandals as of late so having an early election also helps.

[Velasco]

The number of cases in Spain is dropping and the impact of the pandemic has been uneven, with some hardly beaten regions (Madrid, Catalonia, the two Castiles) and others relatively untouched (Asturias, Murcia, the islands and autonomous cities). The reasons to call regional elections this summer in Galicia and Basque Country are varied. Feijóo and Urkullu obviously think that calling elections is good for them, otherwise they would have invoked health emergency to postpone elections indefinitely. But they consider that elections can be held in relatively safe conditions, as it's expected the number of cases will be at the lowest point in summer. It's also true that the term expires in October 2020 in both regions and there exists the possibility of a new outbreak in autumn. Maybe postponing elections beyond the end of term could create some legal problems. Early July seems the best date to hold elections in time and minimize the risks, but I think both regions will add some clause in their decrees to cancel elections if something goes wrong. Vote by mail is a possibility, of course

I'm not following the management of the crisis in the different regions, except for the case of Ayuso in Madrid. I've ead that Ximo Puig is doing well in Valencia, but I don't know why tack50 thinks that Urkullu is underperforming in Basque Country. In any case, both regions are currently in Phase 1 of deescalation. Madrid, Metropolitan Barcelona and parts of Castilla y León remain in Phase 0

[Mike88]

Why did she said this?

https://twitter.com/elmundoes/status/1262812106447097856

Carmen Calvo's explanation about the expansion of the coronavirus: "New York, Madrid and Beijing are in a straight line, three of the big cities where there has been a problem with the devil"

[Velasco]

Why did she said this?

Carmen Calvo's explanation about the expansion of the coronavirus: "New York, Madrid and Beijing are in a straight line, three of the big cities where there has been a problem with the devil"

I get from El Español that Carmen Calvo might be referring, with some inaccuracies, to a research pointing that some cities hardly beaten by coronavirus around the world have similitudes in humidity and temperature. Perhaps these factors might contribute to the coronavirus spread, but the research has not been revised. The cities mentioned in the research are Wuhan, NY, Tehran, Madrid and some others

Carnen Calvo also said that she supports aconstitutional reform to make the Senate more ''federal''

Apparently Pedro Sánchez will request another two-week extension for the state of alarm instead of a month, due to the Cs oppisition to the initial submission from the government

[Mike88]

I get from El Español that Carmen Calvo might be referring, with someinaccuracies, to some research pointing that some cities hardly beaten by coronavirus around the world have similitudes in humidity and temperature. Perhaps these factors might contribute to the coronavirus spread, but the research has not been revised. The cities mentioned in the research are Wuhan, NY, Tehran, Madrid and some others

Carnen Calvo also said that she supports aconstitutional reform to make the Senate ''federal''

Apparently Pedro Sánchez will request a two-week extension for the state of alarm instead of a month, due to the Cs oppisition to the initial submission.

Nonetheless it seems odd. I found this on social media with many comments mocking her. There has been some mocking of Spanish politicians on social media here in Portugal, even the media sometimes mentions it, not mock but a slight critic.

The extention of the state of alarm is just in some regions like Madrid and Catalonia, right? The rest of the country is already exiting the lockdown. That's the sense I have and I visit normally the El País and El Mundo websites.