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  Spanish elections and politics II (Basque Country and Galicia elections: July 12, 2020)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (Basque Country and Galicia elections: July 12, 2020)  (Read 100215 times)
7sergi9
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« Reply #1300 on: November 19, 2019, 08:45:16 am »

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/19/inenglish/1574153889_778519.amp.html
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1301 on: November 20, 2019, 02:29:51 am »

What are the odds of another election or do you think ERC will abstain.  Ironically had PSOE-Podemos had the deal before, they wouldn't have to rely on them and if government falls, I think a right wing one is quite possible although who knows.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #1302 on: November 20, 2019, 10:26:16 am »

So how is 20N going this year?
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1303 on: November 25, 2019, 06:58:16 am »

For some bizarre reason a lot of people are expecting a regional election in Catalonia soon (there have been rumours going a very long time back).

Still, given ERC's kingmaker position, here is today's poll for a regional election in Catalonia, done by NC Report / La Razón

ERC: 21% (32)
JxCat: 19% (31)
PSC: 17% (24)
Cs: 12% (17)
PP: 9% (12)
CatComú: 8% (9)
CUP: 6% (7)
Vox: 6% (3)

To be honest the number of seats they are giving Vox is extremely low for 6%, I would probably give them 5 seat with that percentage. After all PP got 4 seats on 4% of the vote in 2017.

Secessionists: 46% (70)
CatComú: 8% (9)
Unionists: 43% (56)
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1304 on: November 25, 2019, 11:19:31 pm »

How are the negotiations going? Is it likely Sanchez will be invested on the 2nd vote?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1305 on: December 01, 2019, 03:19:17 am »

How are the negotiations going? Is it likely Sanchez will be invested on the 2nd vote?

ERC is in "no hurry". Maybe in 2020...

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/29/inenglish/1575028809_259967.html

Quote
The Catalan Republican Left (ERC), a separatist party that could be pivotal to the formation of a new government in Spain, is in “no hurry” to reach a deal with caretaker prime minister Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE), who is seeking to get confirmed in the post after winning the November 10 election.

“During our meeting they explained that they are working with a more rushed timetable, and we said that we are in no hurry,” said ERC spokeswoman Marta Vilalta on Friday, alluding to the PSOE’s desire to get a government up and running before Christmas (...) 
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PSOL
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« Reply #1306 on: December 04, 2019, 08:59:14 pm »

In other news, refugee housing center “singled out” by Vox targeted with a grenade
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7sergi9
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« Reply #1307 on: December 05, 2019, 09:42:27 am »


the only thing confirmed is that it was an Arab
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Velasco
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« Reply #1308 on: December 05, 2019, 09:59:05 am »


PP and Vox blocked a statement in the Madrid regional assembly to condemn the "attempt" and the "hate speech", reports eldiario.es

https://www.eldiario.es/madrid/PP-Vox-Hortaleza-Asamblea-Madrid_0_970803031.html


the only thing confirmed is that it was an Arab

You must try harder if you want to be in the Steve Bannon's payroll. Thank you for the fake news, anyway

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7sergi9
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« Reply #1309 on: December 05, 2019, 05:19:36 pm »


PP and Vox blocked a statement in the Madrid regional assembly to condemn the "attempt" and the "hate speech", reports eldiario.es

https://www.eldiario.es/madrid/PP-Vox-Hortaleza-Asamblea-Madrid_0_970803031.html


the only thing confirmed is that it was an Arab

You must try harder if you want to be in the Steve Bannon's payroll. Thank you for the fake news, anyway



https://twitter.com/i/status/1202348462714564608
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Velasco
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« Reply #1310 on: December 07, 2019, 02:21:05 am »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 03:11:42 am by Velasco »


1) The news is fake. Police spokepersons have denied the authenticity of the gossip

2) Twitter is not a reliable news source

https://www.publico.es/sociedad/atentado-hortaleza-verdades-bulos-contexto-atentado-centro-menores-hortaleza.html

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El bulo del atacante magrebí

Una de las informaciones que comenzaron a circular rápidamente el miércoles apuntaba a una persona de origen magrebí como presunto autor del atentado. La información fue difundida por web de La Sexta y precisaba: “Un hombre de nacionalidad magrebí que ha saltado la valla, del centro de menas de Hortaleza, en Madrid, ha lanzado una granada de entrenamiento cuando era expulsado por un vigilante de seguridad". Horas después, La Sexta corrigió su noticia y afirmaba que esta información apuntada por una fuente sin precisar no había sido confirmada. Fuentes policiales han desmentido a Público la veracidad de esta información y aseguran que la cadena de televisión nunca se puso en contacto con la Policía para contrastarlo. Por el momento, la Brigada Provincial de Información no ha hablado de sospechosos.

"Dr White" is a quite telling nickname, btw
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1311 on: December 07, 2019, 04:26:49 am »

In other news, PP has offered PSOE a proposal for electoral reform. The new electoral system would basically be a rip-off of Greece's election system; expanding Congress to 400 seats and giving 50 extra seats to the popular vote winner.

In any case such a proposal would almost definitely be unconstitutional because of 2 provisions in Article 68 of the Constitution

Quote
-68.2: The electoral constituency is the province. The cities of Ceuta and Melilla shall be represented by one Member each. The total number of Members shall be distributed in accordance with the law, each constituency being allotted a minimum initial representation and the remainder being distributed in proportion to the population

-68.3: The election in each constituency shall be conducted on the basis of proportional representation.

The Spanish constitution makes it extremely hard to reform the electoral system, especially to make it more majoritarian (proposals to make it more proportional have been floated by UP/Cs in the past though and they are compartively simple).

In any case it is extremely unlikely that Sánchez would agree to the proposal, even if it would theoretically benefit PSOE.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20191206/472073154629/casado-ley-electoral-acuerdo-prima-de-mayoria.html

In the extremely unlikely case it is somehow passed as a constitutional reform and gets a referendum I would probably vote no. I am not opposed to majoritarian systems, but bonus for winners like Greece or Italy's old system are not the way to go.

My "ideal" majoritarian system  would probably be a hybrid of the American election system (open primaries to all citizens, extremely loose party discipline) and the French election system (2 round elections, single member districts)
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Velasco
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« Reply #1312 on: December 07, 2019, 08:52:54 am »

Yesterday it was the anniversary of the Spanish Constitution.

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/12/06/inenglish/1575623662_245117.html

Quote
As Spain observes the 41st anniversary of its Constitution, the surge of a far-right party that seeks to recentralize the country has effectively neutralized all political talk about constitutional reform (...)

But the plans for reform that had been mostly pushed by the Socialist Party (PSOE) have been relegated to the back burner, as Spain’s main parties seek to defend the country’s current structure, known as the estado de las autonomías and based on significant devolved powers to the regions.

On Friday the caretaker prime minister, Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE, said that Spain’s current constitutional framework has enough tools to resolve “social and political conflicts,” and to address “the political and territorial crisis in Catalonia."(...)

Vox, which first entered the national parliament in April with 24 lawmakers and more than doubled this figure in November, has clearly stated its desire to change the basic structures of government, eliminating regional parliaments and police forces, and returning powers over healthcare, education and security to Madrid.

Meanwhile, the Catalan independence movement has repeatedly expressed its rejection of the Spanish Constitution, and even separatist parties that might support Sánchez’s latest bid to form a government, such as the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), defend the right to decide in an official referendum that would also require constitutional change.

In other news, PP has offered PSOE a proposal for electoral reform. The new electoral system would basically be a rip-off of Greece's election system; expanding Congress to 400 seats and giving 50 extra seats to the popular vote winner.

This proposal is not new. Casado has defended the 'Greek bonus' on previous occasions. The PP leader also defends that Vox is a 'Constitutionalist' party, despite the far-right party wants to demolish the territorial structure consecrated by the Constitution. Amazing guy
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xelas81
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« Reply #1313 on: December 07, 2019, 11:52:19 am »

In other news, PP has offered PSOE a proposal for electoral reform. The new electoral system would basically be a rip-off of Greece's election system; expanding Congress to 400 seats and giving 50 extra seats to the popular vote winner.

In any case such a proposal would almost definitely be unconstitutional because of 2 provisions in Article 68 of the Constitution

Quote
-68.2: The electoral constituency is the province. The cities of Ceuta and Melilla shall be represented by one Member each. The total number of Members shall be distributed in accordance with the law, each constituency being allotted a minimum initial representation and the remainder being distributed in proportion to the population

-68.3: The election in each constituency shall be conducted on the basis of proportional representation.

The Spanish constitution makes it extremely hard to reform the electoral system, especially to make it more majoritarian (proposals to make it more proportional have been floated by UP/Cs in the past though and they are compartively simple).

In any case it is extremely unlikely that Sánchez would agree to the proposal, even if it would theoretically benefit PSOE.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20191206/472073154629/casado-ley-electoral-acuerdo-prima-de-mayoria.html

In the extremely unlikely case it is somehow passed as a constitutional reform and gets a referendum I would probably vote no. I am not opposed to majoritarian systems, but bonus for winners like Greece or Italy's old system are not the way to go.

My "ideal" majoritarian system  would probably be a hybrid of the American election system (open primaries to all citizens, extremely loose party discipline) and the French election system (2 round elections, single member districts)

Would creating national PR list in additional to provincial PR lists to "make up" differences between seats and votes list be constitutional? It would increase seats for smaller national parties while slightly decrease seats for regional parties.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1314 on: December 07, 2019, 12:16:57 pm »

In other news, PP has offered PSOE a proposal for electoral reform. The new electoral system would basically be a rip-off of Greece's election system; expanding Congress to 400 seats and giving 50 extra seats to the popular vote winner.

In any case such a proposal would almost definitely be unconstitutional because of 2 provisions in Article 68 of the Constitution

Quote
-68.2: The electoral constituency is the province. The cities of Ceuta and Melilla shall be represented by one Member each. The total number of Members shall be distributed in accordance with the law, each constituency being allotted a minimum initial representation and the remainder being distributed in proportion to the population

-68.3: The election in each constituency shall be conducted on the basis of proportional representation.

The Spanish constitution makes it extremely hard to reform the electoral system, especially to make it more majoritarian (proposals to make it more proportional have been floated by UP/Cs in the past though and they are compartively simple).

In any case it is extremely unlikely that Sánchez would agree to the proposal, even if it would theoretically benefit PSOE.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20191206/472073154629/casado-ley-electoral-acuerdo-prima-de-mayoria.html

In the extremely unlikely case it is somehow passed as a constitutional reform and gets a referendum I would probably vote no. I am not opposed to majoritarian systems, but bonus for winners like Greece or Italy's old system are not the way to go.

My "ideal" majoritarian system  would probably be a hybrid of the American election system (open primaries to all citizens, extremely loose party discipline) and the French election system (2 round elections, single member districts)

Would creating national PR list in additional to provincial PR lists to "make up" differences between seats and votes list be constitutional? It would increase seats for smaller national parties while slightly decrease seats for regional parties.

Probably not. The constitution is fairly clear in that the electoral constituency is the province, though I guess courts could try and do some mental gymnastics to justify that but I don't think they would.

Also, contrary to popular belief, regional parties are not overrepresented. Here are the results for the election if it was done with a single national constituency and no threshold:


https://www.eldiario.es/politica/GRAFICO-quedaria-Congreso-electoral-circunscripcion_0_962403820.html

Notice how "other parties" actually go up, not down!
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1315 on: December 19, 2019, 07:16:01 am »

Well, today was a big day regarding Catalonia.

First of all, the EU Court of Justice ruled that Oriol Junqueras, currently in jail, should have been seen as posessing parliamentary immunity during the judicial process. Spanish Courts assumed he first needed to swear in, but the EU justices disagree

The EU court of justice did rule that the trial does not need to be repeated, and lets Spanish Courts choose whether to free Junqueras out of jail or not. Ironically this makes things easier for Puigdemont and Toni Comín (also elected as MEPs) to swear in and achieve parliamentary immunity than it helps Junqueras himself, who might see no changes in his situation.

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20191219/fallo-justicia-europea-inmunidad-junqueras-7780633
https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20191219/sentencia-oriol-junqueras-7780832

At the same time, Superior Court of Justice of Catalonia ruled on a judicial process related to premier Quim Torra, accused of disobedience for not removing a yellow lace (a pro-secessionist symbol) from the balcony of the Catalan Government building. His sentence is 1 and a half years barred from holding public office.

This ruling is not a firm ruling as Torra could theoretically appeal to the Spanish Supreme Court. This does mean Torra will remain as premier for now, until the sentence is final or Torra declines to appeal. If he is eventually disqualified from holding public office, Deputy Premier Pere Aragonés (ERC) would become acting premier and the standard government-making process would begin, not unlike after a regional election.

It is rumoured that Torra might call a snap election, even if he will be banned from standing for reelection. This would also mean JxCat wouldn't need to give ERC (even if just temporarily) the premiership of Catalonia.

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/politica/20191219/inhabilitacion-torra-legislatura-catalunya-cuenta-atras-7741469
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #1316 on: December 21, 2019, 04:16:31 pm »

Any news about Pedro Sanchez?
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1317 on: December 21, 2019, 06:46:21 pm »


About government formation? Not really other than negotiations still going on and an expected confidence vote happening some time after new Year's.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1318 on: December 29, 2019, 02:28:46 pm »

It has been an extremely slow news cycle lately because of Christmas and what not. Politically we did have sort of a surprise in that in Leon town hall the PSOE+UP+UPL majority (UPL being Leon province regionalists) passed a motion to call for the region of Castille-Leon to be split into 2: A region of Castille and a region of Leon (made up of 3 provinces: Leon, Zamora and Salamanca, all 3 along the Portuguese border)

This motion is going nowhere, but it is still interesting to see that it happened. It is also interesting to note that both PSOE and PP are divided on the issue (though PSOE much more so than PP).

Spliting autonomous communities is of dubious constitutionality, but not 100% unconstitutional like say, Catalan independence.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1319 on: December 29, 2019, 02:46:51 pm »

Well this is what I get for speaking too early. We just got big news regarding government negotiations.

Apparently during negotiations PSOE has leaked to ERC the contents of the reports Spanish government prosecutors will make regarding the jail situation of former ERC leader Oriol Junqueras.

ERC apparently has agreed with those prosecutor arguments and has agreed with them, and will abstain in the government confidence vote.

It is expected that the government confidence votes will take place during the first week of January 2020.

https://cadenaser.com/ser/2019/12/29/politica/1577638677_168479.html

In any case, you can see this as Sánchez meddling into the job of prosecutors and further neutering separation of powers (not exactly strong in Spain). Plus depending on how conspiratorial you are, you could see this as some sort of big betrayal to the unity of Spain.

Either way, it seems a government will be formed soon
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Mike88
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« Reply #1320 on: December 29, 2019, 02:55:37 pm »

Well this is what I get for speaking too early. We just got big news regarding government negotiations.

Apparently during negotiations PSOE has leaked to ERC the contents of the reports Spanish government prosecutors will make regarding the jail situation of former ERC leader Oriol Junqueras.

ERC apparently has agreed with those prosecutor arguments and has agreed with them, and will abstain in the government confidence vote.

It is expected that the government confidence votes will take place during the first week of January 2020.

https://cadenaser.com/ser/2019/12/29/politica/1577638677_168479.html

In any case, you can see this as Sánchez meddling into the job of prosecutors and further neutering separation of powers (not exactly strong in Spain). Plus depending on how conspiratorial you are, you could see this as some sort of big betrayal to the unity of Spain.

Either way, it seems a government will be formed soon
Now, the question is if this government has any ground to last. Anyway, political stability will probably not be a characteristic of the next Sanchéz government.
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1321 on: December 29, 2019, 03:08:08 pm »

Well this is what I get for speaking too early. We just got big news regarding government negotiations.

Apparently during negotiations PSOE has leaked to ERC the contents of the reports Spanish government prosecutors will make regarding the jail situation of former ERC leader Oriol Junqueras.

ERC apparently has agreed with those prosecutor arguments and has agreed with them, and will abstain in the government confidence vote.

It is expected that the government confidence votes will take place during the first week of January 2020.

https://cadenaser.com/ser/2019/12/29/politica/1577638677_168479.html

In any case, you can see this as Sánchez meddling into the job of prosecutors and further neutering separation of powers (not exactly strong in Spain). Plus depending on how conspiratorial you are, you could see this as some sort of big betrayal to the unity of Spain.

Either way, it seems a government will be formed soon
Now, the question is if this government has any ground to last. Anyway, political stability will probably not be a characteristic of the next Sanchéz government.

Oh, definitely not. Even passing a budget will be a huge challenge. I do expect Sánchez to pass a (late) budget for 2020. However a 2021 budget seems very hard to pass in my opinion, and 2022 and beyond is not happening.

I would expect this government to last for around 2-3 years; definitely nowhere near a full term. The next election will be some time in 2022 I believe.
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Skye
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« Reply #1322 on: December 29, 2019, 03:43:40 pm »

Well this is what I get for speaking too early. We just got big news regarding government negotiations.

Apparently during negotiations PSOE has leaked to ERC the contents of the reports Spanish government prosecutors will make regarding the jail situation of former ERC leader Oriol Junqueras.

ERC apparently has agreed with those prosecutor arguments and has agreed with them, and will abstain in the government confidence vote.

It is expected that the government confidence votes will take place during the first week of January 2020.

https://cadenaser.com/ser/2019/12/29/politica/1577638677_168479.html

In any case, you can see this as Sánchez meddling into the job of prosecutors and further neutering separation of powers (not exactly strong in Spain). Plus depending on how conspiratorial you are, you could see this as some sort of big betrayal to the unity of Spain.

Either way, it seems a government will be formed soon
Now, the question is if this government has any ground to last. Anyway, political stability will probably not be a characteristic of the next Sanchéz government.

Oh, definitely not. Even passing a budget will be a huge challenge. I do expect Sánchez to pass a (late) budget for 2020. However a 2021 budget seems very hard to pass in my opinion, and 2022 and beyond is not happening.

I would expect this government to last for around 2-3 years; definitely nowhere near a full term. The next election will be some time in 2022 I believe.

Yikes. I assumed this was going to be the end of it.
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1323 on: December 30, 2019, 08:52:05 am »

Well this is what I get for speaking too early. We just got big news regarding government negotiations.

Apparently during negotiations PSOE has leaked to ERC the contents of the reports Spanish government prosecutors will make regarding the jail situation of former ERC leader Oriol Junqueras.

ERC apparently has agreed with those prosecutor arguments and has agreed with them, and will abstain in the government confidence vote.

It is expected that the government confidence votes will take place during the first week of January 2020.

https://cadenaser.com/ser/2019/12/29/politica/1577638677_168479.html

In any case, you can see this as Sánchez meddling into the job of prosecutors and further neutering separation of powers (not exactly strong in Spain). Plus depending on how conspiratorial you are, you could see this as some sort of big betrayal to the unity of Spain.

Either way, it seems a government will be formed soon

A new election definitely worked for Sanchez, but not at all in the way he expected.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1324 on: December 31, 2019, 01:05:13 pm »

Investiture debate on January 4, 5 and 7

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/12/31/inenglish/1577794241_173675.html

Hopefully we'll have a coalition government

Happy New Year to everybody
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