Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

At least Sánchez managed to resist the Podemos surge in 2015. The purple tide in December 2015 was twice stronger than the Vox surge in April 2019. Later Sánchez managed again to resist the offensive of Pablo Iglesias allied with IU. Unidos Podemos came very close to the PSOE in 2016, but the 'sorpasso' didn't occur. By then Sanchez didn't have full control of the PSOE and he was loathed or understimated by rivals, both internal and external. Pedro Sánchez managed to defeat Pablo Iglesias, Susana Diaz, the PSOE establishment and finally Mariano Rajoy and the Colón Triumvirate. Possibly he is not the most brilliant of the Spanish politicians, neither intellectually nor dialectically. However his resilience and his ability to survive are impressive. Obviouly he's not the handsome idiot that some people believed he was. Pablo Casado must try harder to achieve such level of prowess.

[Velasco]

Should we discard the possibility of a coalition altogether, then?

No. As I said in a previous post, the upcoming elections in May (EP, regional and local) will delay coalition building and creation of majorities. PSOE and Podemos will engage a long negotiation that will end in some kind of agreement, either confidence and suppply or coalition government. Sánchez and the PSOE want a minority government with "progressive independents"; Iglesias and UP demand a coalition. Nothing will be solved before the elections, so it makes little sense to speculate or make predictions at this early stage.

[Velasco]

Two most shocking shifts in my opinion are the relative  lack of non-participant-> Vox transfers (with most of their voters being formally from PP) and the comparatively large Podemos -> others (regionalists) transfer. Both shifts though were already partially visible on the swing map, which with the Basque/Catalans shifting away from the left block and Andalusia being the only state with consistent right wing swings.

"Others" are neither Catalan nationalists nor PNV, since these parties appear separately in the graph. It must be a transfer from UP to EH Bildu, other regionalists like Compromís and other parties like PACMA. However, I don't see large transfers of non-participants and UP (ECP) or CDC to ERC and the 385k increase didn't come from nowhere. Maybe there's some error in the graph.

PSOE manages to mobilize the largest number of non-participants, as well there's a large transfer from UP. However the graph shows very littletransfer from Cs to PSOE. Of course Vox is one of the main reasons of the PP collapse, but the transfer from PP to Cs is large too. The little amount of the transfers between Cs and Vox is somewhat surprising, as well as the low numbers coming from abstention.

The CIS post-election survey will be released soon and it will provide info about vote transfers and other issues.

[Velasco]

Wondeful map of results by precinct nationwide, similar to that map of the 2016 elections linked in a previous page of this thread.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/05/01/actualidad/1556730293_254945.html

This time my precinct voted as follows:

PSOE 31%, UP 24%, PP 14%, Cs 12%, Vox 6%, CC 3%, Others 10% (presumably NC and PACMA have most of this share)

Nice image from Galicia

[Velasco]

Another precinct map, more complete and with a lot of interesting info

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaron-barrios-pobres-militares-barrio_0_894861358.html

[Velasco]

A couple of maps made by myself

Leading party by province (majority). Circles are municipalities with more than 100000 inhabitants.

Largest bloc by province (majority).

Bloc results:

Left (PSOE, UP, ECP, Compromís) 43.65%

Right (PP, Cs, VOX, NA+) 43.23%

Catalan nationalists (ERC, JxCAT, FR) 6.23%

Basque nationalists (EAJ-PNV, EH Bildu, GBai) 2.58%

[Velasco]

Bloc results:
Fascinating how the two main blocs are basically tied nationwide but the Right is ahead almost everywhere. It's not even just a population density thing, since the Right is ahead in Madrid and some of the relatively dense coastal areas. A lot of it is probably because the national right is so nonexistent in Catalonia and Euskadi.

Yes, Catalonia and Basque Country make the difference for the Left.

Bloc results in Catalonia were: Nationalists 39.4%, Left 38.1%, Right 20%, The Basque Country was even worse for the Right, as it lost parliamentary representation: Nationalists 47.7%, Left 37.5%, Right 12.8%.

Regarding the rest of Spain the results were mixed. Much of the inland Spain is depopulated, with the exception of Madrid. But, as you say, it's not only a matter of population density.

Andalusia is the largest Spanish region by population and is the traditional stronghold of the Left. However, the region is shifting progressively to the right and it was lost for the PSOE in December 2018 after 37 years of continued hegemony. The Left recovered in comaprison with the last regional election, particularly the PSOE. Recovery was limited, though: Left 48.5%, Right 48.3%

Madrid is the third largest region by population after Andalusia and Catalonia: Left 43.5% and Right 53.4%. The reelection as Mayor of my personal favourite Manuela Carmena will be an uphill battle, as the margin in the city of Madrid is similar.

To compensate the Andalusia's shift, the Left has recovered ground in the Valencian Community (4th largest region by population). The Left governs since 2015, after many years of PP rule and massive corruption scandals. There was a leftwing majority in regional elections and a tie between blocs in general elections: Left 48.5%, Right 48.6% .

The result in Galicia is noticeable as well, as this region is another traditional PP stronghold. The Left got 46.6%, the Right 43.8% and leftwing nationalists 6.8%. To the contrary, the Right won in traditional PSOE strongholds like Extremadura (L 47.6%, R 50.1%).

[Velasco]

Any post-election surveys that highlight demographic preference of the electorate? I assume that contrary to other right-wing populist outfits, Vox did not do as well among the working class?

CIS post-election survey will be released within a few days. Precinct results point that Vox is more popular in affluent neighbourhoods.

Have the canarians said anything?

CC doesn't want deals with Podemos or Vox

[Velasco]

As for other parties, PSOE gets very spread out results (with southern Tenerife, a touristy area, being their best result?).

The PSOE candidate in 2015 was Patricia Hernández. She is from Tenerife and her main base of support within the PSOE's regional branch was in the south of that island, where the party holds some local governments. The best result for the PSOE was in Adeje, a municipality that incorporates the major tourist resort of Playa de las Américas. I have some municipality results posted here:

https://saintbrendansisland.wordpress.com/2015/06/13/elecciones-al-parlamento-de-canarias-2015/

I was compiling these results myself, and I'd like to know where would we put some minor regional parties. Gbai, PRC, En Marea, BNG? Like, where do they fit?

I aggregated Compromís and NA+ to the Left and the Right, because I consider both are solid allies of their respective blocs.

Regarding the rest of regional forces, I grouped them in "peripheral nationalists" and "regionalists". The difference between both categories is not always clear. The Spanish Constitution mentions the existence of "regions" and "historical nationalities". In order to make my life easier, I group as "peripheral nationalists" all the parties operating in "historic nationalities" with a proper language: Catalonia, Basque Country and Galicia. The parties operating in the rest of regions are simply "regionalist". I'll make a short list including regional parties with seats in Congress or in regional legislatures.

Peripheral nationalists  

Catalonia: ERC (entre-left), JxCAT (centre-right) and FR (far-left)
Basque Country and Navarre: EAJ-PNV (centre or centre-right), EH Bldu (left-wing) and GBai (centre-left)
Galicia: BNG (left-wing), Anova (left-wing, did not contest) and En Marea (left-wing)

Regionalists:

Asturias: Foro (right-wing, in coalition with PP this general election)
Aragon: PAR (centre-right, did not contest), CHA (centre-left, did not contest)
Balearic Islands: MÉS (left-wing catalanist, ran with ERC), EL PI (centre-right)
Canary Islands: CC-PNC (centre-right), NC (centre-left)
Cantabria: PRC (centre or centre-left)

CpM in Melilla and the local parties in Ceuta could be grouped as "regionalist" as well.

The result in Galicia is noticeable as well, as this region is another traditional PP stronghold. The Left got 46.6%, the Right 43.8% and leftwing nationalists 6.8%. To the contrary, the Right won in traditional PSOE strongholds like Extremadura (L 47.6%, R 50.1%).

Yeah, I was wondering about the big swing in Galicia. Any idea why the left did so well in there? In general the trend I surmise has the left do better in the Northwest and the East coast, but worse in the Southern half of the country. What do you think can explain that?

The results from Galicia were one of the best things of the night, and I think  there is no result.

I believe one of the reasons of this swing of Galicia is the following: the PP was really strong there but the people that voted for the party are not right wing. Galicia was one of the poorest regions decades ago and most of old people associates PP with social development. I remember that I saw one article that people told reporters that they voted for the politicians that brought electricity to the town and things like that. Thats why the PP was very strong in the country side. The thing is that the children of those people have no loyalty to the PP and also have a strong identity associated to Galicia that other parties now offer with a more attractive package.

The strength of the PP was also possible because the Galicia branch of PP was very moderate and also they defended the Galician identity, Feijoo (Galicia’s president) talks almost all the time in Galego.

When you have an election that the main theme is the role of autonomies and regional identity, you can’t expect that the right wing parties that campaign  on decreasing Autonomies’ powers do well in a region that has a strong identity  (and also, I read that Galego in the country side of Galicia is stronger than Euskera in rural Euskal Herria or Català in rural Catalunya). That is way now Feijoo is strongly advocating to return the PP to a moderate approach, because he knows that he is going to be one of the main victims of the centralist approach.

There exists a clear divide in Galicia in what regards electoral behaviour. The coast and the urban centres have been shifting to the left. Possibly it's a thing of younger voters with a strong sense of Galician identity. However, the PP retains a strong (albeit somewhat diminished) base of support in rural Galicia. These voters are conservative and traditionalist, but often they are Galician-speaking too. The PP has incorporated the conservative regionalism in Galicia and that's one of the main reasons of its success. In fact PP resisted much better in Galicia while the appeal of the Vox's radical centralism is weak. Similarly parties with centralist stances like Cs or Vox have little appeal to the UPN traditionalist base that defend the old Fueros

I guess the shift to the right in Southern Spain is related to a wear caused by many years of PSOE regional administrations. The impact of the Catalan crisis is arguably much more important to explain the rise of the far right than issues like immigration. Vox performed strongly in places like El Ejido (Almería) and Torre Pacheco (Murcia) that have a strong proportion of immigrants working as labourers in greenhouses and such. However, the Vox support in the urban centres is not located in working class neighbourhoods with large immigrant population. Rather, it's located in more affluent neighbourhoods that traditionally vote PP.

[Velasco]

Barcelona poll conducted by GESOP for El Periódico

ERC (Ernest Maragall) 22.5% 11 councilors
BComú (Ada Colau) 20% 9-10 councilors
PSC (Jaume Collboni) 16.6% 8 councilors
BCN-Cs (Manuel Valls)13.1% 6 councilors
JxCAT (Joaquim Forn) 12% 5-6 councilors
PP (Josep Bou) 4.6% 0-2 cuncilors
CUP (Anna Saliente) 4% 0 councilors
BCap* (Jordi Graupera) 3.5% 0 councilors

*Pro-independence list backed by the ANC

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/20190506/encuesta-elecciones-municipales-barcelona-2019-7440699

[Velasco]

I would imagine the explanation for declines in the Left and Right in certain heartland regions is that the old patronage systems are dead or in life support (due to both austerity shrinking the state and graft-busting), so there's literally no point in keeping the old patronage machines alive?

Possibly the decline of patronage machines in rural Galicia or Andalusia plays a role, but it's only a factor among others in play. I tend to think the influence of subsidies like PER in Andalusia has been exaggerated, as the beneficiaries (agricultural labourers) are only a small proportion of the population. The Baltar family in Ourense province dominates local politics and the patronage machine is still strong there... In any case the influence of patronage machines does not extend to the more populous and dynamic coastal and urban areas. Demographic changes in coastal Galicia or Abdalusia could explain better vote shifts in those places.

[Velasco]

Does this benefit the Conservatives ?

Do you mean the decline of patronage machines? In Southern Spain, yes; in Galicia, no.

[Velasco]

Massive polling dump from the CIS pollster. They were surprisingly accurate in the general election even if they were thought to have a big PSOE bias. In any case, here they go:

Why do you say it's a polling dump? The CIS was more spotted on than the rest of pollsters predicting the general election results. Maybe this poll looks a bit optimistic for the left and the appointment of a PSOE member at the head was not a good idea, but I think such comments are disrespectful with the professionals of the sociological institute.

[Velasco]

I think the poll is very optimistic in what regards local and regional elections in Madrid. I wish the final results will be close to the CIS predictions, but rightwing parties got more votes in general elections. However, there are reasons to believe in a miracle because the May elections are of a doffrent kind, the Left has good candidates (Gabilondo, Carmena) and there's the possibility of a bandwagon effect. The CIS predicted the Left would win in Valencian regional elections and it occurred, although by a narrower margin. This precedent is not necessarily to be replicated in Madrid, but I don't think the capital of Spain and its region are lost battles for the Left.

Regarding Barcelona, the CIS predicts a narrow advantage for Ada Colau (BComú) over Ernest Maragall (ERC). The GESOP poll predicted the opposite: possibly it will be a tight and exciting contest. However, Ernest Maragall is the favourite to become the next Mayor. The ERC candidate is brother of Pasqual Maragall (PSC), a former Catalan Premier and Mayor of Barcelona. Ernest was before in the PSC and held the Education portfolio in the regional administration led by José Montilla. Later he joined ERC and held the Foreign Action portfolio in the Catalan government led by Quim Torra, replacing Raül Romeva.

[Velasco]

Former PSOE leader and statesman Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba has died

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/05/10/actualidad/1557464508_194765.html

[Velasco]

Catalan nationalists make the f**king SNP bozos look like responsible adults. JFC.

They suck, yes. The major strategic goal of ERC is to become the hegemonic nationalist party, the Catalan version of the SNP. There is a fierce competition between ERC and JxCAT for leadership. ERC has been adopting a pragmatic approach on paper: broadening social base for independence and favouring negotiation over unilateralism. However, pragmatism and long-term strategies turn easily into recklessness when ERC leaders get nervous.They fear being called "traitors" by the "hyperventilating separatists", exactly the same fear that drove Puigdemont to the unilateral declaration of independence in October 2017. There won't be substantive progress until the trial of separatist leaders taking place in Madrid is over.

[Velasco]

So what is likelihood budget passes and if so any major revisions or just a few bones to regionalist parties?

It's too early and Catalan nationalists are too unpredictable to say. Also, there is an investiture vote first. The veto to the appointment of PSC leader Miquel Iceta as senator proves that Pedro Sánchez was right deeming Catalan parties unreliable. Sánchez replied that move by proposing other two Catalans to top offices: Meritxell Batet as Speaker of the Congress and Manuel Cruz as Speaker of the Senate. Both are PSC members and won their seats on April 28. Batet is currently the minister in charge of regional affairs. There is a PSOE majority in the Senate and the election of Cruz is certain, but Meritxell Batet needs the support of other parties to get elected. Appointing two Catalans is a sign that PSOE is still pursuing dialogue within the limits of the constitution. The elegant reaction of Iceta to the arbitrary veto posed by separatist parties points to the same direction. However separatists are neither reliable nor predictable, despite ERC spokepersons claim they want dialogue and don't want a repetition of elections. The question is whether ERC is willing to abstain in order to allow the appointment of Batet and the investiture of Pedro Sánchez in a second vote (and eventually budget passes). In case of permanent lock, the only way is going to new elections. PSOE's third-un-line José Luis Abalos called Cs and PP to abstain in the investiture vote to ensure stability, as the PSOE did in late 2016 with the opposition of Pedro Sánchez (he was ousted for this reason). PP and Cs won't abstain, obviously.

Another factor: there are local, regional and EP elections around the corner, within 8 days. Major races in Madrid and Barcelona .

[Velasco]

Meritxell Batet and Manuel Cruz candidates for Congress and Senate speaker after the veto of Catalan separatists to Miquel Iceta

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/05/17/inenglish/1558077622_586730.html

   

Following the Catalan parliament’s refusal to appoint Miquel Iceta, the leader of the Catalan Socialists (PSC), as a senator on Thursday, the acting government of Pedro Sánchez has come up with a new candidate to replace him.

Sánchez is now nominating another native of Catalonia, Manuel Cruz, who is also a member of the PSC. The idea is to get him into the Senate, then make him speaker of the upper house. The new vote at the Catalan parliament to confirm his senatorial position will take place on May 21.

The picks are meant to symbolize a renewed desire for dialogue to overcome the territorial crisis

Manuel Cruz, 58, is a philosophy professor at Barcelona University who has lectured at European and US institutions. He has written around 30 books and is a regular contributor to several news organizations, including EL PAÍS. As a politician, he has served as a PSC deputy and a PSOE spokesman in the congressional committee for science, innovation and universities. He is viewed as a moderate who supports dialogue.

For speaker of Congress, Sánchez is proposing Meritxell Batet, who is also Catalan. The choices are meant to symbolize the acting PM’s desire for renewed dialogue to overcome the territorial crisis in the northeastern region.

[Velasco]

Local elections: 40db polls for El País

Madrid: Manuela Carmena is a weak favourite



Barcelona: complex results with a narrow lead of ERC (Ernest Maragall) over BComú (Ada Colau),  PSC (Jaume Collboni) on the rise and Manuel Valls coming fourth slightly ahead of JxCAT



Valencia: Joan Ribó (Compromís) is the favourite



Sevilla: PSOE holds



Zaragoza: Pilar Alegría (PSOE) could be the next mayor replacing Pedro Santiesteve (Zaragoza en Común), who parted ways with Podemos



Bilbao: PNV on the edge of winning a majority



A Coruña: Similarly to Zaragoza, the PSOE could replace the alternative left (Marea Atlántica)

[Velasco]

The Left could win regional elections in Madrid, according to the 40dB poll for El País. Íñigo Errejón (Más Madrid) could be the big surprise

[Velasco]

I don't think that UPN propping up Pedro Sánchez alongside Podemos and PNV is a serious possibility. Navarrese traditionalists have always sided with the Spanish Right at national level, regardless occasional cooperation between PSOE and UPN at regional level.

[Velasco]

I don't think that UPN propping up Pedro Sánchez alongside Podemos and PNV is a serious possibility. Navarrese traditionalists have always sided with the Spanish Right at national level, regardless occasional cooperation between PSOE and UPN at regional level.

I don't think it's that unrealistic. I believe back on the Zapatero days, UPN propped up Zapatero's government by supporting his budgets, and that's the reason for their split.

An abstention in exchange for money for Navarra and giving NA+ the regional government would probably be a fair deal, especially if a PSOE-led government in Navarra is not a possibility or would require Bildu support.

Oh yes, I forgot that precedent and it's not a bad point. There is a problem with that theory.  As you say, that move led to a split within the Navarrese Right: the regional branch of the PP was refounded after some years merged with the UPN. Leaving aside political contexts are very different, a similar move today would lead to the split of NA+ with PP and Cs breaking away on the UPN's treason. So in neither case there would be a deal between PSOE and NA+, rather one between PSOE and UPN. Another point is that we are no longer in a two-party system, but in a multi-party system with complex coalition building. I think UPN is not compatible with the PSOE's preferential partners: Podemos, PNV and Compromis. However, the complexity of the political context and the high degree of uncertainty prevent me to rule out any possibility. I'll just say it seems very unlikely to me that PSOE manages to deal with Podemos on the one hand and CC or UPN on the other hand. They are like oil and water. Uncompatible.

[Velasco]

Inaugural session of the Spanish Congress took lace today

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/05/21/inenglish/1558449646_847012.html

The inaugural session of Spanish Congress on Tuesday gave a good indication of what to expect during the new political term inside a house that is more fragmented than ever following the snap election of April 28.

At a tense gathering that lasted slightly under five hours, five Catalan lawmakers who were allowed out of preventive prison to take oath used atypical formulas to swear allegiance to the Constitution they are on trial for allegedly breaking.

Their words were nearly drowned out by shouts from other newly elected deputies, particularly those from the far-right Vox party, which has entered parliament for the first time on a promise to defend Spanish unity. Other opposition leaders said the separatists’ claims about political persecution were an insult to Spanish democracy, and accused the new speaker of the house, Meritxell Batet, of excessive leniency.

Meritxell Batet was elected new speaker of the lower house. Batet is a PSC deputy for Barcelona and a Catalan federalist who was the acting minister Public Administrations, in charge of relations with regional governments. She was elected in a second vote with the support of half of the chamber. The 175 votes in favour came from PSOE, UP, PNV, CC, Compromís and PRC.
Rightwing opposition (PP, Cs and Vox), Catalan separatists and EH Bildu did not support Batet.

This vote shows an initial correlation of forces where the government and its allied parties are one seat short of a majority. The long-term support of CC is questionable: it would depend on the results of regional elections on Sunday and the subsequent coalition talks. This leaves the PSOE and allies with 173 seats, 3 seats short. In this context the attitude of ERC (plus the 0strategic ally' EH Bildu) is key. They have sent signals that could be interpreted as a will to cooperate... or not. Given the political conflict and the procedural situation of ERC leader Oriol Junqueras, trying to predict their future behaviour is risky.

Oriol Junqueras to Pedro Sánchez: "we need to talk"

One of the most unusual scenes of the day was the handshake and brief exchange of words between acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Oriol Junqueras, the leader of the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), who is on trial for rebellion over the failed secession attempt of 2017. Junqueras and four other separatist leaders were allowed out of jail to attend the inaugural session of parliament, although they will likely be suspended until the Supreme Court reaches a verdict.

Oriol Junqueras greeted other ministers (including Borrell), the new speaker Meritxell Batet and embraced Pablo Iglesias. Inés Arrimadas greeted the trialed JxCAT deputies Josep Rull (kiss on the cheek) and Jordi Turull (handshake), while Cs leader Albert Rivera just looked at them defiant. Vox deputies woke up early in the morning in order to seat in the row behind Pedro Sánchez and the cabinet members, in an attempt of trolling partially countered by PSC deputy José Zaragoza who sat between party leader Santiago Abascal and Iván Espinosa de los Monteros. Zaragoza later explained Abascal and the other Vox deputies practical details on the functioning of Congress (how to vote and things like that), but couldn't prevent they hit their benches when the separatist deputies took their oaths.

Another star of the inaugural session was the eldest member of the Congress

he new session of Congress got underway today under the guidance of three deputies-elect: Agustín Javier Zamarrón of the Socialist Party (PSOE), Marta Rosique of the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) and Lucía Muñoz of left-wing Unidas Podemos. The trio made up the so-called “Mesa de Edad,” literally the “Age Committee,” which is composed of the oldest deputy-elect, who acts as president, and the two youngest, who are there as secretaries.

The Mesa de Edad is charged with declaring the session of Congress open, before reading a Royal Decree and the list of deputies who will be taking a seat in the lower house of parliament.

Of the three, Zamarrón caused something of a stir on social media on Tuesday. He had run with the PSOE in Burgos at the last three general elections, but missed out on a seat in 2015 and 2016. Against all forecasts, he was lucky third time around, becoming, at 73, the oldest deputy of Congress.

A retired doctor, his expressions during the opening of Congress today were peppered with medical terms. “We are prone to a thrombosis in the pit,” he said into the microphones today, as the deputies filing through the chamber found that their path was blocked by groups of other parliamentarians. “Honorable deputies, please improve the flow,” was another of his comments.

With his long white beard and glasses, Zamarrón’s likeness to Spanish writer Ramón María del Valle-Inclán did not go unnoticed by users of social media. In fact, the surname “Valle-Inclán” was actually a trending topic on Twitter earlier in the day.

 

[Velasco]

What are chances of another election?  Or is it likely PSOE will likely form a coalition.  Also in terms of budget priorities as budget was by recent European standards fairly left leaning how likely is it that things like 22% rise in minimum wage, tax on banks, higher income taxes on those making over 150,000 Euros likely to go through?

I think nobody wants a new election, but the formation of majorities is extremely complex due to the situation in Catalonia. Today it was the inaugural session in Congress 8See previous post) and there are key local, regional and EP elections on Sunday. The talks between PSOE and UP to reach an agreement (either coalition or confidence and supply) will begin seriously on the following day. Regarding the budget draft, the European Commission didn't raise major objections, aside they considered the income forecast too optimistic (particularly referring to new corporate taxes). Possibly it helped that Minister of Economy Nadia Calviño is very well considered by the Eurocrats, as she was the Director-General for Budget of the EC between 2014 and 2018. Also, the committed Europeism of Pedro Sánchez in times of EU crisis and other factors could strengthen the position of Spain. The main problem with the budget is internal and related to the dependence on the votes of Catalan separatist parties that forced Sánchez to call the last time. The results make the position of Sánchez much better now, but sadly he was 1 to 3 seats short to get a majority without ERC. I don't think Sánchez will be forced to call a snap election with the current parliament, but political instability will last until the trial to Catalan separatist leaders is over and a new election takes place in Catalonia.

So, how's the public perception about a snap election? seems that in other parliamentary countries, they try to avoid it at all costs (like Sweden a couple of years ago), i understand that this fragmented scenario in Spain is new for the political class but making elections every two years doesn't seem to be a good idea...

also, which are the odds for Carmena's reelection in Madrid? 50/50? i thought she was likely to win and popular in general

For the first part, read above. Most of polls say there's a tiny advantage for Manuela Carmena, but it's within the margin of error. The same rules for regional elections in Madrid. Manuela Carmena is an independent left-wing mayor that has made a good management of public funds and implemented measures to make Madrid more human. I think she is popular and appreciated, as well as she is esteemed by middle-class voters not so prone to support radical leftists. Her popularity is the consequence of personal traits and good performance and may help her to win reelection, despite the rightwing parties won on the general election by a 10% margin. It will be a tight contest and I'll be crossing fingers for her and Íñigo Errejón.

[Velasco]

The new parliament emerged from the recent general election reflects the highest gender parity in the EU. Currently there are 164 women in the Congress of Deputies, representing 46.9% of the 350 members. The following countries in the gender parity ranking are Sweden (46.4%), Finland (41.5%), Norway (40.8%) and France (39.8%)

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/05/22/inenglish/1558517200_573782.html

When Spanish deputy Clara Campoamor demanded women’s right to vote in a famous speech made on October 1, 1931, she was just one of three female members of Congress.

Eighty-eight years after women’s suffrage was enacted in Spain, the new Congress that convened on Tuesday has the highest number of female deputies in the country’s history: 166, representing 47.4% of seats. This makes Spanish parliament the EU leader in gender parity, and the fifth in the world according to figures from UN Women.

Spain’s leap to the global forefront of female leadership is also reflected in the fact that a woman, Meritxell Batet, is the new speaker of the lower house, and that she is taking over from another woman, Ana Pastor.

This new reality was reflected in the opening remarks by Batet, who spoke of the need to advance toward “a more feminist Spain” and who addressed the “señoras y señores diputados,” putting the women first instead of using the more traditional formula of “señores y señoras.”