Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Skye]

I wouldn't worry too much about the SyM Consulting survey, it's a pretty trashy pollster. In November 2019 they were the only ones who predicted an outright PP-Vox-C's majority (with C's holding 35-40 seats).

About the GESOP poll, El Periódico polls usually are a bit too rosy for the PSC, but I do buy that Salvador Illa is the preferred candidate by a large margin. Name recognition is probably a significant factor though, since the other candidates are relative newcomers to the political scene and he has received enormous amounts of media attention due to the pandemic.

To be honest, I didn't realize it was SyM consulting. Low credibility indeed

You are right about the GESOP polls for El Periódico; they tend to be rosy for the socialists. The funny thing is that I believe GESOP is also working for the CEO, the Catalan counterpart of the CIS. There are other pollsters that work for various commissioners,  such as GAD3 (Narciso Michavila). I always wonder if the  estimations are influenced by the leanings of the commissioners. In any case GESOP and GAD3 are more reliable than that SyM.

Trying to predict a result right now is too hazardous, but I think a thtree-cornered contest between ERC, Junts and PSC is plausible. Also, I suspect that Junts has been quite successful in undermining Pere Aragonès and I am afraid the Puigdemont party has many chances of surpassing ERC. The latter will get more nervous as the election date gets closer. Junts coming first and leading the Catalan government would be an upsetting outcome for those seeking a deescalation of the Catalan conflict. On the other hand, some people claim that Salvador Illa has been placed there to seek a new tripartite alliance with ERC and ECP. I'm highly sceptical about the possibility of a leftwing coalition, but it's not entirely impossible. A new edition of the Tripartite that governed between 2003 and 2010 would be assailed from every side,  both from the pro-independence camp (Junts and CUP) and the Spanish Right  (PP, Vox and Cs)

Oh I didn't know the pollster was trash. Disregard, then.

But speaking of GESOP polls that are rosy for the socialists, here's the latest from them for the Catalonia elections:

https://twitter.com/Electograph/status/1347607685953433602
Sadly, no popular vote numbers, but still, I don't think I've seen any polls that had the PSC winning the most seats, at least during the past few weeks.

EDIT: Ok we got the popular vote numbers now:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1347613603646631943

[Skye]

Support for the Catalan independence decreases slowly, according to the GAD3 poll for La Vanguardia

-What would you vote in a referendum on independence (previous poll percentage in brackets)?

Yes 42.6 (45.2)
No 48.9 (46.7)
Don't know/ don't answer 8.5 (8.1)

Gender gap in the support for independence: men +4, women -16
Support for independence is stronger among the youngsters and decreases with age. Unemployed and people with lower income are more contrary to independence. Unilateral seccession is overwhelmingly rejected rejected, including nationalist voters

A shame we don't have crosstabs. I'd like to see support levels among voters of each party, especially since the poll has the Nationalists at 50% for the election.

[Skye]

So I know that the Autonomous Communities are the most responsible for the response to the pandemic, but I can't help but to think how bad it could look for Illa to go from the Ministry of Health to the campaign trail supposedly to capitalize on his popularity and then have the election postponed due to how bad the COVID situation is.

[Skye]

Our friend Tezanos has a new CIS poll for the Catalan election and well...



I think it'd be alright to call this an outlier. Not just because of the PSC number, the most eye popping number is for Junts, who only have 12.5% of the vote, well below what they've gotten in other polls.

Link to the poll: http://datos.cis.es/pdf/3306_Estimacion.pdf

Also BREAKING NEWS while I was typing this: The TSJC will keep February 14 as the date for the election, but the decision isn't final. They have until Feb. 8 to announce a definitive date.

EDIT: Well Velasco beat me to it.

[Skye]

World elections according to CIS, 2021

Pain.

[Skye]

Well there's also a new poll from Socométrica:

PSC 21.5 (30-31)
Junts 19.7 (31-33)
ERC 19.3 (29-31)
Cs 11.2 (15-17)
ECP 7.2 (7-8)
PP 5.8 (6-7)
VOX 5.8 (6-7)
CUP 4.9 (5-6)

https://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20210125/psc-salvador-illa-empataria-junts-escanos-erc/553695247_0.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1611562578

[Skye]

The Vox poster scares me. Loads of aggressiveness and testosterone. Abascal and Garriga look like two Salvini clones. Condottieri

The PP emoji is awful, definitely

That PP emoji is extremely cursed.

[Skye]

Hello friends. I've been a little busy with some stuff in real life. I just wanted to pop in for a moment to say I finally managed to do a project I've long wanted to: A Madrid precinct map. I know it has little to do with the current election (The Catalan regional election), but I thought you'd find it interesting.

Anyways, here are the precinct results for the November 2019 General Election in Madrid, presented by ideological blocs.

Blue: Right (PP+Cs+VOX), 52.2%
Red: Left (PSOE, UP, MP), 45.8%

Atlas colors, though I've painted the tied precincts in purple.


 
This is the small version, here's a link for the super big (11938 x 11208) version if you want to see it in more detail: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_cvlPwH2hKi79LyVHKlnqi2k0qunD9qN/view?usp=sharing

[Skye]

GESOP/Andorra Market

PSC 23.0 (32/34)
ERC 20.8 (31/33)
Junts 18.8 (29/31)
Vox 7.5 (9/10)
ECP 6.9 (8/9)
Cs 6.7 (7/8)
CUP 6 4 (8/9)
PP 4.4 (4/5)
PDeCAT 3.0 (0/2)

Turnout 56/58

Well VOX placing 4th would make this election a complete dumpster fire.

[Skye]

21% in and the PSC is almost at 25% of the vote, much like how C's won back in 2017.

[Skye]

Oh and I know we are talking about PSC/ERC/Junts, but the other story is that VOX is right now at 8%. Yes they, and the right overall, has a ceiling and PP+C's+VOX is basically at it, but does anyone know if that percentage goes up or down? More non-Catalan Nationalist votes later on, but they are from urban areas that are not equivalent to Madrid.

I've been paying attention to both VOX and the PSC's % for the past few updates and they seem to be losing a bit of ground. With 71% in, the PSC is now at 23.8% of the vote with 33 seats while VOX is at 7.8% but still with 11 seats. The PDeCAT was fighting for a seat in Lleida, but they're at 4.7% of the vote (and falling with each update) while VOX is taking that last seat with 5.3% of the vote.

[Skye]

C's at 5.6% with 92% in.


Their poll numbers were at double digits as late as two weeks ago.

[Skye]

Precinct map from eldiario.es:

https://www.eldiario.es/catalunya/resultados-elecciones-catalanas-calle-calle-consulta-gano-manzana_1_7220231.html