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March 05, 2021, 12:36:07 PM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 135433 times)
Mr. Illini
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« Reply #1225 on: November 10, 2019, 09:11:15 PM »

While it seems like the far right is declining in influence in parts of central and Western Europe (even if slowly), Vox’s performance today is discouraging.
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God-Empress Stacey I of House Abrams
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« Reply #1226 on: November 10, 2019, 10:06:50 PM »

it seems like the far right is declining in influence in parts of central and Western Europe

God I wish that were true.
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xelas81
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« Reply #1227 on: November 10, 2019, 10:28:15 PM »

How come BNG made the comeback?
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #1228 on: November 11, 2019, 12:11:41 AM »

1) Was Vox's gains more due to direct transfers from the C's (as at least one post here indicates) or due to a "two-step" swing where PP voters swung to Vox but then C voters went over to the PP?

2) It seems like the C's have significant ideological affinity to the UPyD. Why did the former gain at the expense of the latter and are there differences in the compositions/worldviews of those two parties?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1229 on: November 11, 2019, 12:26:53 AM »
« Edited: November 11, 2019, 12:24:14 PM by Tender Branson »

Murcia: The Saxony of Spain.
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ericpolitico
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« Reply #1230 on: November 11, 2019, 02:03:26 AM »

Can anyone help to explain why did Ciudadanos lose 3/4 of their seats?
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Good Habit
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« Reply #1231 on: November 11, 2019, 04:10:49 AM »

Can anyone help to explain why did Ciudadanos lose 3/4 of their seats?
Well, initially, C's seemed to fill a niche in the Center, to the left of PP. Then they tried to take over the leadership of the right, inheriting the place of PP. When this failed, they tried it even further to the right, thus legitimizing VOX. So they vacated the niche between PSOE and PP, couldn't replace PP, and didn't find a large enough niche between PP and VOX..
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jaichind
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« Reply #1232 on: November 11, 2019, 07:39:02 AM »

Rivera Quits, Gives Up Politics
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Velasco
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« Reply #1233 on: November 11, 2019, 07:48:51 AM »

Albert Rivera quits after electoral debacle

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/11/11/inenglish/1573467972_489207.html

Quote
The leader of Spanish political party Ciudadanos (Citizens), Albert Rivera, today resigned from his role in the wake of the center-right group’s dismal showing in Sunday’s repeat general election /...)

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Rivera explained his reasons for quitting. “Out of responsibility, I must resign from this position,” he said. “Bad results belong to the leader.” He went on to announce that he was also quitting as a deputy in Congress, saying that he was doing so “for the good of the project.” He added that he wanted to “make way for another deputy who is passionate about entering Congress. I have never been tied to a seat in politics.” He made clear that he was “leaving politics. Public life. I have enjoyed it, and I have learned.”
 
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #1234 on: November 11, 2019, 08:05:47 AM »

I still refuse to believe that Teruel actually exists.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1235 on: November 11, 2019, 08:33:30 AM »

I'm starting to think the countless elections benefit bipartisan politics and that C's collapse is also due to lack of resources, experience and obvious leadership outside of the broken record Rivera. How exactly is Arrimadas going to turn their fortunes around?
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #1236 on: November 11, 2019, 08:35:15 AM »

it seems like the far right is declining in influence in parts of central and Western Europe

God I wish that were true.

I've been hopeful following results in Austria, Switzerland, German local elections, etc
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DL
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« Reply #1237 on: November 11, 2019, 09:02:25 AM »

Is the Teruel member who was elected considered more right or left?
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Velasco
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« Reply #1238 on: November 11, 2019, 09:40:51 AM »


The consequences of this fiasco in the years to come are unpredictable
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VPH
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« Reply #1239 on: November 11, 2019, 09:50:48 AM »

Seems like Chega and Vox did well in peripheral suburbs of Lisbon and Madrid respectively.
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Skye
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« Reply #1240 on: November 11, 2019, 09:58:19 AM »

Seems like Chega and Vox did well in peripheral suburbs of Lisbon and Madrid respectively.

I guess that was to be expected, since C's performed really well there in the past election. Still,  the only medium sized municipality they won seems to be Valdemoro. The PP still beat them easily in the wealthier municipalities of northwestern Madrid.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1241 on: November 11, 2019, 10:00:43 AM »

Seems like Chega and Vox did well in peripheral suburbs of Lisbon and Madrid respectively.

Well, with Chega "doing well" is something of a relative term tbf.
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Skye
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« Reply #1242 on: November 11, 2019, 10:17:29 AM »

Also, I can't wait to for eldiario.es to upload their precincts map. I believe it took them a week for April's election.

They also have some useful maps here:

By blocs (also a swing map): https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-izquierda-resultados-ideologicos-municipio_0_962054275.html

Winners on the right: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/Vox-PP-comunidades-autonomas_0_962054238.html

Performance by party: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-Espana-partido-municipio_0_962054225.html
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Velasco
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« Reply #1243 on: November 11, 2019, 10:26:10 AM »
« Edited: November 11, 2019, 10:38:50 AM by Velasco »

You should be more precise when referring to the Madrid periphery. As Skye says, there is a wealthy periphery located NW of the capital city, while the peripheral suburbs and municipalities located south are working class and lean to the left. An interesting question is to determine whether Vox has managed to make inroads in working class areas.

Santiago Abascal was trying to follow the Salvini's handbook, appealing to the patriotism of the working class with a sentence copied to a leader of the old Falange (something like "the poor cannot afford not having a homeland"). Cs leader Albert Rivera previously used sentences resembling the words of the Falange's founder José Antonio Primo de Rivera (buried in Valle de los Caídos), either intentionally or ignoring their symbolism. "I see neither reds nor blues, I only see Spaniards". Rivera and his allegedly centrist and liberal party have been the biggest fiasco, alongside with the tactical irresponsibility of Pedro Sánchez.  The 'Macronista' alliance between PSOE and Cs had 180 seats in April for only 130 seats in November. Quoting journalist Enric Juliana, Albert Rivera has been the hare of the far right
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c r a b c a k e
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« Reply #1244 on: November 11, 2019, 10:30:10 AM »

I think the big issue for C's is they were borne from the outrage at the craven corruption of Rajot et al, but those scandals are starting to fade away into the past.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1245 on: November 11, 2019, 10:31:42 AM »
« Edited: November 11, 2019, 10:35:24 AM by Oryxslayer »

Also, I can't wait to for eldiario.es to upload their precincts map. I believe it took them a week for April's election.

They also have some useful maps here:

By blocs (also a swing map): https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-izquierda-resultados-ideologicos-municipio_0_962054275.html

Winners on the right: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/Vox-PP-comunidades-autonomas_0_962054238.html

Performance by party: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-Espana-partido-municipio_0_962054225.html

Disagree with how they lack seperatist or localist blocks but...whatever. Anyway, to round out the group here is El Pais's winner map:

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/10/actualidad/1573410266_570919.html

Most interesting results:



Madrid region. That suburban ring is so noticeable you would think we were in London or the Upper Midwest.



Teruel Existe's winning map. Also contains what I think are the only 2 C's municipalities nationwide.  
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Senator tack50 (Lab-Lincoln)
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« Reply #1246 on: November 11, 2019, 11:22:13 AM »

Also, I can't wait to for eldiario.es to upload their precincts map. I believe it took them a week for April's election.

They also have some useful maps here:

By blocs (also a swing map): https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-izquierda-resultados-ideologicos-municipio_0_962054275.html

Winners on the right: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/Vox-PP-comunidades-autonomas_0_962054238.html

Performance by party: https://www.eldiario.es/politica/MAPA-Espana-partido-municipio_0_962054225.html

Disagree with how they lack seperatist or localist blocks but...whatever. Anyway, to round out the group here is El Pais's winner map:

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/11/10/actualidad/1573410266_570919.html

Most interesting results:



Madrid region. That suburban ring is so noticeable you would think we were in London or the Upper Midwest.



Teruel Existe's winning map. Also contains what I think are the only 2 C's municipalities nationwide. 

Regarding these 2 maps:

The Madrid map ring of suburbs for Vox is actually more ex-urban in character, extending well into Castille-La Mancha. That area also has seen relatively high population growth I think.

Madrid's closer (and larger) suburbs are the very affluent western suburbs (Las Rozas, Majadahonda, etc) which went to PP and the old and relatively working class "red belt" (Getafe, Rivas-Vaciamadrid, etc), which went to PSOE.

Also Teruel Existe's map is hilarious to me in that they won the province by winning big in the provincial capital of Teruel. Most of actually rural Teruel did not vote for them. Teruel town is not a large town by any means (35 000 inhabitants) but considering TE's platform it is funny how rural Teruel did not vote for them, while "urban" Teruel did. (though in the 2nd and 3rd largest towns in the province, the only 2 others above 5000 people, they did not do particularly well)
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afleitch
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« Reply #1247 on: November 11, 2019, 01:01:13 PM »

What's with Vox on the coast? Non Spanish nationals?
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #1248 on: November 11, 2019, 01:22:59 PM »

Did Vox manage to win some traditional working class areas that normally go to PSOE like Trump, Le Pen, Salvini, etc.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1249 on: November 11, 2019, 01:30:11 PM »

Did Vox manage to win some traditional working class areas that normally go to PSOE like Trump, Le Pen, Salvini, etc.

Someone with better knowledge of this can enumerate more, but Vox is a different flavor then those guys. Vox is more reactionary and hearkening back to a 'glorious past' during the francoist regime, whereas those guys are arguing to build something something new. They are approaching a problem and say "we need new ideas" Vox looks at a problem and says "we need old ideas." It's been mentioned before that migration is a minor tenant on Vox's platform, the Falagist stuff, Castilian Nationalism, Centralism, and anti-Catalan rhetoric moves more voters. This all leads to Vox's (originally C's) voters being more wealthy, either Sub/Exurban or living in the exclusive Old City core, Middle-Aged, and Male, according to demographic surveys and previous exit polls. The only part of that list which is shared with the 'WWC' stereotype is Male.
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