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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Should've left the Pangolins alone)
  Spanish elections and politics II (State of Coronavirus Alarm declared)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II (State of Coronavirus Alarm declared)  (Read 89551 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #1125 on: November 10, 2019, 02:05:41 pm »

Exit poll smaller parties

Catalan pro-independence parties Esquerra Republicana seen having 13-14, Junts 6-7, CUP 3-4 seats
Basque nationalists PNV 6-7
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Mike88
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« Reply #1126 on: November 10, 2019, 02:08:16 pm »




Surreal. The fifth election in April is going to be interesting.

Yeah, this is becoming ridiculous. It was expected, but ridiculous still. Maybe the only way to settle this is to have a "jamón" (ham) eating contest, and the person who eats the most jamón wins. Cheesy
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1127 on: November 10, 2019, 02:08:25 pm »

EL  Pais

PSOE 119
PP 94
Vox 42
Podemeos 36
C's 19
ERC 15
MP 3
Other 22

158 to 155 pure left v right
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Walmart_shopper
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« Reply #1128 on: November 10, 2019, 02:08:37 pm »

Looks like Right wing bloc narrowly beats out Left wing bloc

Without 176 seats the right wing bloc isn't "beating" anyone. But you're also right, and Sanchez will now be pm over a divided government in which his bloc isn't even the largest.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1129 on: November 10, 2019, 02:09:07 pm »

Looks like Más País did some damage to the PSOE and UP in terms of seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1130 on: November 10, 2019, 02:10:18 pm »

EL  Pais

PSOE 119
PP 94
Vox 42
Podemeos 36
C's 19
ERC 15
MP 3
Other 22

158 to 155 pure left v right

You have to add in 2 seats to the Right for NA+
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1131 on: November 10, 2019, 02:11:40 pm »

EL  Pais

PSOE 119
PP 94
Vox 42
Podemeos 36
C's 19
ERC 15
MP 3
Other 22

158 to 155 pure left v right

You have to add in 2 seats to the Right for NA+

Forgot about them. So it's essentially tied. Wonderful.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1132 on: November 10, 2019, 02:14:28 pm »

Whatever the actual results end up being, the depressed turnout is a major defeat for Spanish democracy. This is what you get when politicians are would rather play dumb games to outmaneuver one another than sit down and actually try to govern together.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1133 on: November 10, 2019, 02:15:23 pm »


Forgot about them. So it's essentially tied. Wonderful.

As pointed out by others it really does not matter as unless the exit polls are way off we are looking at more stalemate.
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Grand Inquisitor Lumine
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« Reply #1134 on: November 10, 2019, 02:15:47 pm »

Sad to see Rivera and C's utterly implode, though it is understandable. One can hope the party may find a way to survive, but that (potential) result is just too harsh.

Hilarious to see Sánchez losing seats though, both because of his enormous arrogance and for gambling on a second election in the belief he'd gain seats like Rajoy in 2016.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1135 on: November 10, 2019, 02:17:04 pm »


I saw the long, gray blob on the left edge of the map and was confused about which bloc was strongest.

Sorry, Portugal.  I like really do like you more.

I don't like those maps of Spain not showing the Portuguese land. The Iberian peninsula looks amputated in them. I think the Left was the largest bloc in the last Portuguese elections  
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Mike88
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« Reply #1136 on: November 10, 2019, 02:23:30 pm »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 02:29:01 pm by Mike88 »


I saw the long, gray blob on the left edge of the map and was confused about which bloc was strongest.

Sorry, Portugal.  I like really do like you more.

I don't like those maps of Spain not showing the Portuguese land. The Iberian peninsula looks amputated in them. I think the Left was the largest bloc in the last Portuguese elections  
In the 2015 elections, the right-wing bloc won every district in the North, bar Porto, and Leiria in the Center. In the 2019 elections, the leftwing bloc won every district bar Braganza, that matches exactly in the areas where PP+C's+VOX have the highest share in Castilla y Leon.

2019 results by bloc, from Wikipedia:


The almost wipe out of the rightwing bloc in the 2019 election is basically because of the colapse of CDS, as PSD did hold steady in many areas of the North/Center while CDS basically disappeared.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #1137 on: November 10, 2019, 02:24:07 pm »

So basically nothing will change?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1138 on: November 10, 2019, 02:27:25 pm »

Reminder that last time the first results were overwhelmed with the basque country vote. They counted far faster and were  overrepresented in the  early totals. Quite funny considering the PNV and Bildu were being projected at way too many seats before the results came down to earth.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1139 on: November 10, 2019, 02:34:34 pm »



Madrid seat projection - Combined left loses one, combined right gains one. Vox, PP, and MP are the gainers.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1140 on: November 10, 2019, 02:35:28 pm »

Vox could win Murcia and Ceuta city, according to the TVE poll.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1141 on: November 10, 2019, 02:38:33 pm »

Vox could win Murcia and Ceuta city, according to the TVE poll.

I'm going to be shocked if Murcia and the Enclaves are not green. Murcia especially was barely PSOE last time around, and VOX wasn't that far behind PP. the C's -> Vox vote transfer is probably enough to put theme on top on its own. Question is if there is anything else  like Toledo or Almeria, where they ran good last time.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1142 on: November 10, 2019, 02:41:21 pm »

Polling stations will close in the Canary Islands at 20:00 GMT, 20 minutes from now. We'll have actual results pretty soon
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DL
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« Reply #1143 on: November 10, 2019, 02:41:54 pm »

Why is Murcia so rightwing?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1144 on: November 10, 2019, 02:43:06 pm »


One of the few places immigration control actually moves voters.
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P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong
razze
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« Reply #1145 on: November 10, 2019, 02:43:44 pm »

The people of Spain: We are so tired of all these elections!

Also the people of Spain: *elects a parliament which is less likely to work together*
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Velasco
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« Reply #1146 on: November 10, 2019, 02:50:48 pm »
« Edited: November 10, 2019, 03:00:57 pm by Velasco »


Maybe because it's a conservative and traditional agrarian society where the economic development has been focused on tourism and construction, as well on new types of horticulture under plastic that employ immigrant workforce. Immigrants from Africa (either from Maghrib or Sub-Saharan countries) are more disliked by the potential Vox voter than immigrants from countries like Romania.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1147 on: November 10, 2019, 02:55:47 pm »

Toledo could be a major blow for Cs, given that the candidate there is former speaker Juan Carlos Girauta. The man was a journalist before and left Barcelona for Castile fed up with Catalan nationalism. I dislike Girauta very much, but I guess the Vox candidate could be even worse...
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1148 on: November 10, 2019, 03:04:32 pm »

The people of Spain: We are so tired of all these elections!

Also the people of Spain: *elects a parliament which is less likely to work together*

It's the job of politicians to make do with the parliament voters give them, not of voters to give politicians the parliament they want.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1149 on: November 10, 2019, 03:10:47 pm »

First results in: 16.74% counted

29.15% PSOE
20.39% PP
13.14% Vox
12.24% UP
  5.31% C's
  0.70% Más Pais

In April, with a similar share of the vote counted, these were the results:
With 17.01% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   29.69%
PP       16.99%
C        13.05%
UP       11.98%
VOX      8.97%
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