Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021 (user search)
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021  (Read 195212 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #100 on: April 27, 2019, 01:45:59 PM »

last demoscopia / okdiario (04/26)

Is Okdiario breaching the polling ban?
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Velasco
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« Reply #101 on: April 27, 2019, 03:47:34 PM »

Not sure if these internal polls from PSOE and Podemos have been posted yet:

PSOE internal poll: PSOE 30-31%, PP 15-17%, Vox 13-16%, C's ?, Podemos ?
Podemos internal poll: PSOE 30%, Podemos 15%, PP 15%, C's 15%, Vox 15%

My read of these polls is that, on the one hand, there's every reason to believe that it's in the interests of both PSOE and Podemos to show a Vox surge in order to mobilize their base. It's noteworthy that both polls appear to be very similar, of course, but both parties have similar interests. Simultaneously, the debates were a trainwreck for PP and, frankly, for the C's as well, with both Rivera and, especially, Casado coming off as feuding clowns incapable of governing.

Obviously these "internal polls" are biased leaks. Yesterday I read about a PP internal poll giving 50 seats to Vox and a range between 60 and 120 seats to the PP. These informations must be taken with loads of salt.

Regarding the debates, they must be seen taking into account that every candidate is seeking to appeal a different audience. Casado tried a 'moderate' and 'institutional' approach on the first night and was overcome by Rivera's aggressiveness. So Rivera succeed in the eyes of his potential audience, that is to say among voters right of the centre. On second night, Casado sought a body-to-body combat with the aim to recover the lost ground. It can be argued the rightwing candidates showed a lamentable image of confrontation, if compared with the synergy between Sánchez and Iglesias.  However, it's highly unlikely the debates favour vote transfers between ideological blocs in the present context of extreme polarization.
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Velasco
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« Reply #102 on: April 28, 2019, 08:06:09 AM »


20:00 CET in mainland Spain and Balearic Islands
20:00 GMT in Canary Islands

High turnout is always good news. regardless the final results (cross fingers). I voted minutes ago and there was more people in my polling place than previous elections. People is getting the importance of this general election and is going to vote.
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Velasco
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« Reply #103 on: April 28, 2019, 09:35:58 AM »

I wouldn't dare to predict anything, because my crystal ball is not sending clear signs to me. It seems the Steve Bannon's oracle is talking through a medium from Austria. Everything is possible, but it seems clear that it's imposible to avert intoxication
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Velasco
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« Reply #104 on: April 28, 2019, 09:59:48 AM »



VOX has only received 0.2% last time, so it is hard to tell where their strongholds are now that they could get ~15% today.

If it's hard to tell where are the Vox strongholds, it should be hard to tell that Vox will get more than 15% (btw, this is the Steve Bannon's prediction). Hard to tell does not imply impossible to guess. The Andalusian results, examined at precinct level, could provide some clues.
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Velasco
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« Reply #105 on: April 28, 2019, 03:09:17 PM »

wonderful results, left wing government will be. pp commit suicide vmro style and "citizens" showed their true right wing colors so they will be completely gone on next election.

Cs is literally gaining massively compared with 2016 though??

Right now Cs is getting 15%, 2pp higher than 2016. So yes, oranges are gaining at the expense of the PP. However they are underperforming expectations and it's obvious the Cs turn to the right is giving the centre to the PSOE.

I guess Vox will reach 10% at the end of the night. 5% lower than Steve Bannon predicted.
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Velasco
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« Reply #106 on: April 28, 2019, 03:12:29 PM »

PSOE+C's has majority, and PSOE has been loosing seats with the most recent dumps, putting PSOE+Podemos+PNV+Compromis+PRC+CCA/PNC at just 176. But if C's becomes the largest right wing party, the slim chance of the PSOE+C's govt becomes 0.

Possibly Albert Rivera became leader of the opposition  with his histrionic performance in the debates. It will be extremely interesting to watch the developments in the Spanish Right.
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Velasco
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« Reply #107 on: April 28, 2019, 03:20:24 PM »

Results in Andalusia are revealing (76.5% reported)

PSOE 34.8% 25 seats
Cs 17.5% 11 seats
PP 17% 11 seats
UP 14.2% 9 seats
Vox 13.2% 5 seats

EDIT: count update gives PSOE 24 seats and Vox 6 seats
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Velasco
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« Reply #108 on: April 28, 2019, 03:36:34 PM »

Catalonia (82.9% reported)

ERC 24.6% 15 seats
PSC-PSOE 23.3% 12 seats
ECP 14.9% 7 seats
JxCAT 12.1% 7 seats
Cs 11.5% 5 seats
PP 4.8% 1 seat
Vox 3.6% 1 seat
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Velasco
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« Reply #109 on: April 28, 2019, 03:46:24 PM »

Question to our Spanish posters: do people vote tactically, i.e. they know their party (e.g. Vox) can't realistically lay claim to one of the three seats in their region so they vote for a bigger party in their bloc (e.g. PP)?

People used to vote tactically in previous elections, back in the two-party system era. I guess the 2015 election put an end to that, although it's possible that some people in small-sized constituencies still vote in that way. It's too early to say in this election and at this moment I haven't seen all the provincial results.
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Velasco
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« Reply #110 on: April 28, 2019, 04:23:44 PM »

Catalonia (82.9% reported)

ERC 24.6% 15 seats
PSC-PSOE 23.3% 12 seats
ECP 14.9% 7 seats
JxCAT 12.1% 7 seats
Cs 11.5% 5 seats
PP 4.8% 1 seat
Vox 3.6% 1 seat

Wow, this is a shock.  I thought there was a good bloc of anti-Independence voters that would flow to C.  Looks like they never materialized and they mostly voted PSOE.

Much of the Cs support in last regional elections came from socialist voters, particularly in the 'red belt' around Barcelona. The Barcelona province went to PSOE, with Public Administrations minister Meritxell Batet on top. Cs came in fourth place behind ECP, which is not a good result for Inés Arrimadas. PP won a single seat for Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo: disaster. Vox won another seat.
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Velasco
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« Reply #111 on: April 28, 2019, 05:04:23 PM »
« Edited: April 28, 2019, 05:19:24 PM by Velasco »

With 92.27% of the vote counted it is

PSOE   28.79%
PP       16.69%
C        15.79%
UP       14.31%
VOX     10.24%

Two blocs pretty much identical which is a disaster for the Right.

Worth noting that the left has almost always won. Spain has always been a left of center country.

This is the first time the right wins 2 elections back to back in the popular vote, and only the fourth time ever after 2000, 2011 and 2016.


I'm not sure I understand. Adding that up makes 43.1% for the left bloc and 42.7% for the right bloc. How can the right claim a popular vote victory?

PSOE+UP right now add up to 43.01

Meanwhile the right adds up to 43.20

You need to remember to add up NA+ to the right wing total as that was a joint list between PP-Cs and a regional party; PP and Cs did not take part in the election in Navarra directly

Of course a 0.2% difference is essencially a tie

As parochial boy noted before adding ERC, PACMA, EH Bildu, Compromis and others gives a slight advantage for the Left.

PSOE crowd at Sánchez's victory speech: "¡Con Rivera No!" "No Pasarán! "

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Velasco
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« Reply #112 on: April 28, 2019, 05:32:08 PM »
« Edited: April 28, 2019, 05:46:03 PM by Velasco »

There could be still a small possibility that CC supports a PSOE government.

CC and Podemos are not compatible. I have to say CC winning 2 seats is quite unpleasant to me.

Canary Islands (97.8% reported)

PSOE 27.9% 5 seats
UP 15.7% 3 seats
PP 15.5% 3 seats
Cs 14.6% 2 seats
CC 13% 2 seats

PSOE wins 3 seats in Las Palmas and 2 in SC de Tenerife. UP comes second and retains its 2 seats in Las Palmas, albeit with a reduced share. CC comes second in SC de Tenerife winning 2 seats.
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Velasco
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« Reply #113 on: April 28, 2019, 05:37:03 PM »

Remember there is a regional election count going on in Valencia

https://resultados.elpais.com/elecciones/2019/autonomicas/17/index.html

33% reporting

PSOE 28 25,25 %
PP 20 18,88 %
Cs 17 16,61 %
COMPROMíS 16 15,86 %
VOX   10 10,08 %
UNIDES PODEM-EUPV 8 8,22 %

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Velasco
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« Reply #114 on: April 28, 2019, 05:43:52 PM »

Valencian Community (General Elections 99% reporting)

PSOE 27.8% 10 seats
PP 18.6% 7 seats
Cs 18% 6 seats
UP 14.6% 5 seats
Vox 12% 3 seats
Compromís 6.4% 1 seat

Apparent vote split between Compromís and UP in regional and general elections
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Velasco
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« Reply #115 on: April 28, 2019, 06:39:47 PM »

Also PP LOST CONTROL OF THE SENATE which is a huge deal in the Constitutional debate (electoral reform, Catalonia trials, SUpreme Court, etc).

We always overlook Senate, but as you say it's very important in the present context

Results (Total: 208)

PSOE 122
PP 56
ERC 11
EAJ-PNV 9
Cs 3
NA+ 3
JxCAT 2
EH Bildu 1
ASG 1
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Velasco
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« Reply #116 on: April 28, 2019, 06:47:42 PM »

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it. At least Vox flopped.

I think you must realize that Cs is not exactly the equivalent of En Marche!, the Lib Dems or the Trudeau boys.

Looks like the left will retain power in Valencia too

73.9% reporting

PSOE 24.24% 27 seats
PP 28-94% 20 seats
Cs 17.25% 18 seats
ompromís 16.17% 16 seats
Vox 10.29% 10 seats
UP 8.05% 8 seats

Left: 51 seats
Right 48 seats
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Velasco
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« Reply #117 on: April 28, 2019, 07:14:09 PM »

This is dumb. PSOE+C's is obviously the best possible outcome for Spain, but dumb C's leadership is stopping it. At least Vox flopped.

I think you must realize that Cs is not exactly the equivalent of En Marche!, the Lib Dems or the Trudeau boys.
Sure, but at least they're pro-Europe, and being hardline on Catalonia is the right call. Anyway, PSOE majority isn't an option, and I certainly prefer C's to UP. Plus, a PSOE-C's government done right could sort of average out to LREM.

Well, regarding Catalonia I strongly disagree with you. I don't like separatists and some of them are as disgusting to me as the most reactionary nationalists on the opposite side. However, it's impossible to overlook that separatist parties got 47.5% and more than 2 million of votes in the last regional elections. This is a strength comaparable to that of the Quebec separatists at their peak. Like them or not, they have a parliamentary majority in Catalonia and control regional government. In this scenario a political negotiation is imperative. The Spanish Right including Cs has no proposals to solve the political and constitutional crisis in Catalonia. They just promised to invoke article 155 of the Spanish Constitution in order to suspend regional autonomy and implement direct rule from Madrid. Predictably that measure would lead to the inflammation of separatist feelings in Catalonia and eventually to the collapse of Spain. The path of negotiation will be undoubtedly long and tortuous, but it's the only way possible.
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Velasco
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« Reply #118 on: April 28, 2019, 07:19:47 PM »
« Edited: April 28, 2019, 07:23:19 PM by Velasco »

Rudimentary question: Would a PSOE-Podemos agreement be a formal coalition with ministerial seats assigned to Podemos MPs or is it basically just supply and confidence?

Pedro Sánchez left open the possibility of a coalition government in an interview to El País a couple of days ago. This is a development from his previous stance, because Sánchez stated before he was seeking to form a PSOE minority government with some progressive independents (more or less what we have now). Podemos lost seats but it's strategically well placed so maybe...
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Velasco
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« Reply #119 on: April 29, 2019, 08:50:37 AM »
« Edited: April 29, 2019, 09:52:28 AM by Velasco »

 Sánchez said last night that he's not going to treat Rivera in the same way the Cs leader treated him. Anyway Cs came very close to become the first party of the Spanish Right. Rivera said that he will be in opposition and I heard the same thing to Inés Arrimadas today.

Why has Catalonia and País Vasco became so left-wing?!
Och

National aspirations tend to have liberationist ideological tendency because it is usually a small population fighting for sovereignty against the powerful majority. Think Ireland under British rule, Palestine, etc.
If the nationalists in Catalonia swung towards ERC its because they were afforded an ideal platform with Rufían on national tv debates with his quips and Junqueras, this incorruptible christian guy, being an imprisoned matyr. Meanwhile the successors to Convergencia, Junts per Catalunya, despite their reasonably good results, are kind of a mess.

If the unionists swung left its because they are tired of the issue altogether and PSOE and Podem offered a platform of "convivencia ", peace, etc. while the Right had bellicist rhetoric. I imagine C's knew they were going to be trading votes of Catalan moderate unionists in favour of more right-wing electorates in the mainland.

I think Catalans clearly favoured the parties advocating dialogue and pragmatism; to put it in a simplistic manner ERC on the separatist camp, PSC-PSOE on the opposite and ECP in the middle ground. The massive mobilization of Catalan voters, especially in the countryside pro-independence areas, led to an increase of the Catalan nationalist vote in general elections: ERC+JxCAT+FR got 39.4% last night, ERC+CDC got 32.1% in 2016. Keep in mind that Catalan voters behave differently depending on the type of elections. For instance there are ERC voters in Catalan elections that can flip to ECP or even PSC in general elections, as well as it can happen in the opposite way. The image of the imprisoned martyr is very powerful, indeed. Regarding Gabriel Rufián I despise him (childish, provocateur) but he moderated his tone during the campaign. Quim Torra is only a puppet of Carles Puigdemont lacking of political stature; his incompetence as premier and and his past xenophobic statements are deplorable. JxCAT is indeed a mess and there is a pragmatic wing in the old Convergéncia (Marta Pascal, maybe Artur Mas) that is waiting to the next local and EP elections. Depending on results, there could be a reconfiguration of Catalan nationalism...
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Velasco
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« Reply #120 on: April 29, 2019, 11:51:10 AM »

Worth noting the CIS was spotted on, despite the heavy and somewhat justified criticism to the methodology implemented by its director José Felix Tezanos

CIS mega-survey released today. Even though the vote estimation is controversial, there is a lot of interesting data. The sample size is massive and there are seat projections for every province, which must be taken with a grain of salt but give some clues on a number of issues (for instance, the geographical distribution of the Vox support)

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Velasco
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« Reply #121 on: April 29, 2019, 04:51:56 PM »
« Edited: April 29, 2019, 11:21:27 PM by Velasco »

Block Swing. Left is PSOE, Podemos, Compromis, PRC,  Right is PP, C's, Vox NA+.  Regionalists without any loyalties are treated as such.

You can really see where Vox surged, and how the Andalusian elections might not have been the best predictor for 2019. You can also see how the regionalists gained at the expense of the left, likely Podemos, in 2016.

 

The map is very interesting, although possibly misleading in what regards Basque Country and Catalonia. As you say peripheral natiinalists made gains at the expense of the Left. This swing must be ECP loses to ERC and FR in Catalonia and UP loses to EH Bildu in Basque Country (EH Bildu and GBai Navarre). Podemos caught tactical vote from peripheral nationalists in 2015 and 2016. However the Spanish Right was decimated in both regions and the colour blue looks strange in their provinces. If you treat peripheral nationalists as a separate bloc (it's a correct approach, imo), maybe you should reflect that in the map. It's only my opinion, of course.

Regarding Balearic Islands, I think there is no swing to the right:

In 2016 PP+Cs got 49.7% and Podemos-IU-MES+PSOE got 45 5%

In 2019 PP+Cs+Vox got 45.5% and PSOE+UP got 44.2%. MES regionalists left UP and allied with ERC getting 4.9%.
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Velasco
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« Reply #122 on: April 30, 2019, 01:55:25 AM »
« Edited: April 30, 2019, 05:05:51 PM by Velasco »

What are the chances of him being able to pass the same budget.  My understanding is if all the parties voted the same way as earlier this year it would be 171 so 5 seats short, but of the two new parties, Cantabria Party and Compromis, those are both centre-left so would probably vote in favour so 173.  Will Sanchez have to tweak it or are there the additional votes to win.  I am guessing the minimum wage hike is fairly popular.  Not sure how popular taxing the banks or taxing the rich more is.  I know it is very popular in some countries, but less so in others so where does Spain stand.  Are a lot upset about income inequality thus want the rich to pay more or is there a fear higher taxes on the rich will just cause them to move to other countries?

It's too early to say, because the upcoming elections in May (EP, regional and local) will delay coalition building and creation of majorities. In any case, economic measures like increase of minimum wage or bank and corporate taxes could be easily supported by ERC or EH Bildu on an ideological basis. The question is whether these Catalan and Basque nationalists are willing to negotiate and pass the budget. Their attitude might be different in the new parliament (there are signs pointing to this, but it's too early), increasing the government's room for manoeuvre. At this point it seems the possibility of a PSOE-Cs is ruled out and a PSOE-Podemos agreement is very certain. However Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias have differences on the type of agreement. Sánchez prefers confidence and supply and Iglesias demands a coalition government. Negotiations between PSOE and Podemos will be long. On the other hand, the political situation in Catalonia and the trial of the separatist leaders add a ood deal of complication. As for the question on income inequality, one of the main effects of the financial crisis is that Spain has became one of the most unequal countries in Europe. The increase of inequality and job insecurity are behind the protests in May 2011 (15M movement) and the surge of Podemos in 2014. So there's some unrest regarding these questions in the Spanish society, yes. On the other hand, the fear that higher taxes make the rich move to other countries is more extended among rightwing voters. Also, the Vox surge is connected with the unrest created by the crisis in Catalonia. We have a big mess here...

Too lazy to find this, but what places with more than say 15000 inhabitants had the biggest right wing and biggest left wing majorities, outside of the Catalonia and Basque regions.

There are a lot of municipalities with more than 15000 inhabitants. If I find a list or something, I'll share it here. I'm about to calculate bloc results in the municipalities over 125000. Maybe I'll make a map or something within a few days.

Regarding rightwing municipalities, maybe you should go for the regions and provinces that lean more to the right. For instance, the region of Murcia and Castilla La Mancha.

 Also, you should take a look in affluent municipalities NW of Madrid like Pozuelo de Alarcón:

PP 29.7%, Cs 24.8%, Vox 19.8%, PSOE 16.8%, UP 7%

The municipalities located south of Madrid are working class and lean to the left.

Parla: PSOE 32.1%, UP 19.7%, Cs 19.5%, Vox 14%, PP 10.3%

Former coal mining towns in Asturias are very leftwing

Mieres: PSOE 37.9%, UP 25.9%, PP 13.2%, Cs 11.8%, Vox 6.8%
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Velasco
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« Reply #123 on: April 30, 2019, 04:57:49 AM »


I think Casado did as well as the PP could have done.

Sorry, but I don't get it. Casado was unable to contain the loses to Vox despite his desperate attempts. Neither the radical turn to the right nor the calls for tactical voting worked. Apparently the radicalization had a double perverse effect: radicalized voters preferred the original (Vox) to the copy (Casado's PP) and more moderate voters went to Cs. Certainly fixing a party like the PP is not an easy task. Its process of decomposition accelerated after the loss of power. However, I'd say ideological radicalization and depuration of professionally comptent cadres closer to Sáez de Santamaría were not wise measures. Casado has proved to be too anxious and hyperactive, flaws that make him very prone to gaffes. Despite his supporters say he's been too little time in office as leader of the PP, I think it's been enough to reveal his limitations. At least his rival in the leadership contest was efficient and hard working...
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Velasco
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« Reply #124 on: April 30, 2019, 05:35:52 PM »
« Edited: April 30, 2019, 05:45:13 PM by Velasco »

The PP's national executive met today. There is concern among regional leaders after the downfall a couple of days ago. The new campaign slogan is "Centrados En Tu Futuro" ("centrados"can be translated as "centered" or "focused"). Four days ago, Casado offered cabinet seats to Vox. Today Casado says that Vox is the far right, Cs are "socialdemocrats" and the PP is the only party of the Spanish centre-right. It seems our solid right winger will engage in an accelerated return to the centre. Of course he doesn't want to resign. By the moment nobody is asking him to go because there are elections within next month. The results of Pedro Sánchez in 2015 and 2016 were bad, but nothing comparable to the catastrophic performance of the PP in 2019. If you start to look at local results in certain places throughout Spain the feeling gets stronger. The process of decomposition began before Casado became leader, but his strategy was suicidal and accelerated the decline. This apparent "return to the centre" is the proof.
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