Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Mike88]

Curiously, the other poll by GESOP, published in Andorra, has Junts crashing at 18.8%.

According to GESOP, the PDeCAT would be gaining some ground at the expense of Junts. It makes a big difference getting 2% or 3% of the vote, given that the last figure is the threshold to win seats in parliament

Is PDeCAT more soft on Independence or not? I see their are clearly a center-right party, not the mess Junts seems to be, ideologically, at least.

[Mike88]

Curiously, the other poll by GESOP, published in Andorra, has Junts crashing at 18.8%.

According to GESOP, the PDeCAT would be gaining some ground at the expense of Junts. It makes a big difference getting 2% or 3% of the vote, given that the last figure is the threshold to win seats in parliament

Is PDeCAT more soft on Independence or not? I see their are clearly a center-right party, not the mess Junts seems to be, ideologically, at least.

The PDeCAT is openly pro-independence, but rejects unilateralism and deals with the far-left CUP.  Candidate Angels Chacón also signed the document committing her party not to make deals with the PSC. The party advocates 'business friendly' policies, such as low taxes and support to entrepeneurs, styling as a group of competent people with experience in government. As the legal heir of CDC the party tries to appeal the traditional CiU voters, whom used to be people of order. Junts is indeed a mess, as it's a party with a majority of former CDC members but incorporates many other groups with different ideologies. Junts styles itself as "progressive" to differentiate from the "reactionary" Spanish nationalists and its candidate Laura Borràs claims to be more leftist than Salvador Illa. But that's likely a delusion and the sudden conversion of all the ex-CDC to progressivism is dubious for some. One of the main goals of Junts is to prevent that ERC becomes the hegemonic force of Catalan nationalism. Given that a majority of voters is self-placing on the centre-left,  Junts tries to be identified as such. In order to he perceived as progressive, Junts withdrew the proosal to abolish the inheritance tax and diminished the protagonism of figures like Joan Canadell, who is the number three behind Puigdemont and Borràs

Interesting. And that "document" committing parties to not make deals with PSC, will parties follow it or is it just a BS? Because it seems like a it.

[Mike88]

Ok, TV3 is just... well, weird:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1360361293081944066

Catalonia: TV3's results prediction hamster predicts victory for Junts and a pact with CUP

The hamster has called it.

[Mike88]

Well, it's election day in Catalonia.

Polling stations started opening at 9am, but only at around 11am did all polling station were ready to receive voters.

Election results can be followed here: https://resultats.parlament2021.cat/resultados/0/catalunya

At 1pm, around 22.8% of voters had already cast a ballot, a drop of almost 12% compared with 2017.

[Mike88]

I assume exit polls will come out 8PM ?

I don't think in Spain they do exit polls. I think they present "predictions" based on polls in the days before polling day. But, not 100% sure.

[Mike88]

Allowing voters in quarantine to vote in person in the last hour of voting is just insane, IMO. Why didn't they impose vote by mail for these voters? It's allowed in Spain.

[Mike88]

Allowing voters in quarantine to vote in person in the last hour of voting is just insane, IMO. Why didn't they impose vote by mail for these voters? It's allowed in Spain.

Worth noting that in Spain vote by mail still requires you to either:

a) Physically go to the post office to deliver your ballot
b) Give the ballot in person to the mail delivery man when he gets to your house

So really you are only moving the problem. Spain's "vote by mail" system works less like what Americans understand by vote by mail and more like a glorified version of early voting.

Worth noting that during the Galician/Basque elections people under quarantine were not allowed to vote period, which was the way to go this time imo; but I guess it was just too many people and courts would not have accepted de facto disenfranchising so many people

Fun fact #1: While you can request the necessary documents to vote by mail online, you are required to have an electronic ID or other equivalent forms of documentation. I am not sure how many people actually have them but I think that a large amount of people certainly don't (not to mention old people who are technologically illiterate)

Fun fact #2: Before COVID times you would need to visit the post office a whopping 3 times to vote by mail! Once to request voting by mail, a second time to take your ballots and documents and a final time to actually vote.

Ohhh... I see. I thought mail voting in Spain was American like. And I thought that the "quarantine" vote in Portugal, last January, was weird and complicated, forget about that, it wasn't that bad now. There was no change of the laws in order to ease voting, then?

[Mike88]

Allowing voters in quarantine to vote in person in the last hour of voting is just insane, IMO. Why didn't they impose vote by mail for these voters? It's allowed in Spain.

Worth noting that in Spain vote by mail still requires you to either:

a) Physically go to the post office to deliver your ballot
b) Give the ballot in person to the mail delivery man when he gets to your house

So really you are only moving the problem. Spain's "vote by mail" system works less like what Americans understand by vote by mail and more like a glorified version of early voting.

Worth noting that during the Galician/Basque elections people under quarantine were not allowed to vote period, which was the way to go this time imo; but I guess it was just too many people and courts would not have accepted de facto disenfranchising so many people

Fun fact #1: While you can request the necessary documents to vote by mail online, you are required to have an electronic ID or other equivalent forms of documentation. I am not sure how many people actually have them but I think that a large amount of people certainly don't (not to mention old people who are technologically illiterate)

Fun fact #2: Before COVID times you would need to visit the post office a whopping 3 times to vote by mail! Once to request voting by mail, a second time to take your ballots and documents and a final time to actually vote.

Ohhh... I see. I thought mail voting in Spain was American like. And I thought that the "quarantine" vote in Portugal, last January, was weird and complicated, forget about that, it wasn't that bad now. There was no change of the laws in order to ease voting, then?

Compared to the Basque/Galician elections last summer yeah there have been no changes whatsoever.

Compared to pre-COVID times the main differences seem to be

a) You don't need to physically go to a post office to request to vote by mail; you can instead do that online
b) You no longer need to physically sign a document to verify that you received your ballots
c) Instead of physically going to the post office to deliver your ballot, you can just give it to the mailman when he gives you your ballots.

Hmm... you cannot even put the ballot in the mail box? It has to be delivered personally to the mailman, right?

[Mike88]

Turnout at 6pm seems around 45.7%, minus 22% compared with 2017.

[Mike88]

Why not?

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1360996854163517441

Catalonia: voter arrives at the electoral college disguised as Bert from Sesame Street carrying a sign that says "no politician will protect you, put on an PPE".

[Mike88]

I'm watching the TVE live broadcast and they are saying that basically no one is showing up to vote after 7pm, the time for people infected/in quarantine.

[Mike88]

TVE prediction:

36-38 ERC
34-36 PSC
30-33 Junts
       7 CUP
    6-7 Podem
    6-7 Vox
    6-7 C's
    4-5 PP
    0-2 PDeCat

[Mike88]

Other prediction:

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1361027807929913346

Too early to call.

[Mike88]

Another one: (this with Junts ahead)

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1361030305998655488

48.73% Independentists
48.15% Non-Independentists

[Mike88]

Pundits are saying, on TVE, that if ERC wins, Junts is out of government and ERC will make a deal with Cómun and the outside support of PSC. If Junts wins, a government is impossible. New elections? Who knows at this point.

[Mike88]

Pundits are saying, on TVE, that if ERC wins, Junts is out of government and ERC will make a deal with Cómun and the outside support of PSC. If Junts wins, a government is impossible. New elections? Who knows at this point.

IMO ERC and Junts will just do a deal one way or the other. Then if need be CUP will provide outside support.

Maybe, everything is open. I like the guy, on TVE, who said he's an independentist abstainer, and that it doesn't matter if either Junts or ERC win, there're both liars.

[Mike88]

It's still very, very early, but, IMO, it seems that Junts is not performing very well. ERC seems to be on the verge of surpassing them, with less than 2% counted and PSC continues creeping up.

[Mike88]

Junts just fell to 3rd place in terms of seats. ERC and PSC surpasses them.

[Mike88]

Map of what's reporting right now. Obviously not everything colored in is 100% reporting, or we will be at >70% counted because of Barcelona and her suburbs.

Yes, but it seems that the predictions overestimated the support for the pro-independent parties. The vote counted later normally is more pro-unionist and there's still a huge amount yet to count.

[Mike88]

21% in and the PSC is almost at 25% of the vote, much like how C's won back in 2017.

With the almost same counted in 2017, C's was at 34 seats, Junts also at 34 and ERC at 32. It ended C's 36, Junts 34 and ERC 32.

[Mike88]

I was believing that the PSC lead would grow with the late returns but it seems that the opposite happened. Now, what kind of government will come out of this is anyone's guess.

[Mike88]

In Lleida, PDeCAT could still "steal" a seat from PSC. It unlikely, but possible.

[Mike88]

Only Barcelona is now yet to finish. But, it won't change the final results.

ERC candidate Pere  Aragonès says that he will seek a broad alliance with the parties supporting the right to self-determination and amnesty for the jailed politicians. Aragonès has contacted JxCAT, CUP, ECP and PDeCAT candidates. He has not contacted aSalvador Illa. The problem is that JxCAT and ECP are totally incompatible.  On the other hand, the hostility of many JxCAT leading figures towards ERC makes a coalition agreement and the future cohabitation very difficult. But still, the most likely option is that ERC and JxCAT continue sharing the government

His words seem to be pointing that way. I agree that ECP and Junts are completely incompatible, ideological and working wise. But, we'll see what happens. Elections in October could still be also a possibility.

[Mike88]

When will the CERA votes be counted? Have they had a historical trend or not?