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  Elections and politics in Hong Kong: megathread
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Author Topic: Elections and politics in Hong Kong: megathread  (Read 4784 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #75 on: November 25, 2019, 06:29:26 am »

In a rare loss in an election where it was a Pan-Democratic landslide, Radical Pan-Democratic and de facto leader of LSD 梁國雄(Leung Kwok-hung) lost his race.  He has been in LegCo since 2004 and was narrowly re-elected in 2016 but was thrown out of LegCo for refusing to take the oath (which included oath of loyalty  to PRC which HK is a part of).  He started in the 1970s as a pro-CCP Maoist and then moved to Trotskyism by the late 1970s and became an opponent of the CCP from the Left and these days represents Radical Left populist opponent of the PRC regime in HK.
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kelestian
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« Reply #76 on: November 25, 2019, 07:21:07 am »

In a rare loss in an election where it was a Pan-Democratic landslide, Radical Pan-Democratic and de facto leader of LSD 梁國雄(Leung Kwok-hung) lost his race.  He has been in LegCo since 2004 and was narrowly re-elected in 2016 but was thrown out of LegCo for refusing to take the oath (which included oath of loyalty  to PRC which HK is a part of).  He started in the 1970s as a pro-CCP Maoist and then moved to Trotskyism by the late 1970s and became an opponent of the CCP from the Left and these days represents Radical Left populist opponent of the PRC regime in HK.

He lost to DAB's chairwoman, right?
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jaichind
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« Reply #77 on: November 25, 2019, 08:11:03 am »

Wikipedia has the vote share being

Pan-Democratic      57.34%
Pan-Establishment  41.82%
Others                     0.44%

They, correctly, in my view, count Christine Fong(方國珊)'s Professional Power(專業動力) as Pan-Establishment when other count them as Centrist.   Professional Power(專業動力) is really a splinter of DAB and have an economically Rightist position so should really count as Pan-Establishment.  Wikipedia also counted a couple of independents that other label as Others as Pan-Democratic which I also agree with.

If you look at the candidates that make up the 0.44% most of them lean Pan-Democratic so we should really call this election 58/42 in favor of Pan-Democratic Bloc which as I mentioned before is really not that bad for the Pan-Establishment if we assume that this election has been turned into a referendum election where the more disparate Pan-Democratic Bloc is able to fuse behind one candidate (mostly.)
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Joseph Cao
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« Reply #78 on: November 25, 2019, 11:55:48 am »
« Edited: November 25, 2019, 11:59:24 am by Rep. Joseph Cao »


Yes – about the only silver lining for the DAB in individual races.

Wikipedia has the vote share being

Pan-Democratic      57.34%
Pan-Establishment  41.82%
Others                     0.44%

They, correctly, in my view, count Christine Fong(方國珊)'s Professional Power(專業動力) as Pan-Establishment when other count them as Centrist.   Professional Power(專業動力) is really a splinter of DAB and have an economically Rightist position so should really count as Pan-Establishment.  Wikipedia also counted a couple of independents that other label as Others as Pan-Democratic which I also agree with.

If you look at the candidates that make up the 0.44% most of them lean Pan-Democratic so we should really call this election 58/42 in favor of Pan-Democratic Bloc which as I mentioned before is really not that bad for the Pan-Establishment if we assume that this election has been turned into a referendum election where the more disparate Pan-Democratic Bloc is able to fuse behind one candidate (mostly.)

The assumption is very reasonable considering all the factors differentiating this election from previous council elections (large turnout, increasingly SAR-wide politicisation of races, etc.)
While not the universally held position that some people are claiming it to be, a 16–point gap is still reasonably significant, although it would be more so if district councils’ jurisdiction extended to federal policy. On the other hand, I fully expect pro-democracy boosters to instead talk about the much more impressive–sounding seat count.
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jaichind
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« Reply #79 on: November 25, 2019, 12:39:10 pm »

Wikipedia has the vote share being

Pan-Democratic      57.34%
Pan-Establishment  41.82%
Others                     0.44%

They, correctly, in my view, count Christine Fong(方國珊)'s Professional Power(專業動力) as Pan-Establishment when other count them as Centrist.   Professional Power(專業動力) is really a splinter of DAB and have an economically Rightist position so should really count as Pan-Establishment.  Wikipedia also counted a couple of independents that other label as Others as Pan-Democratic which I also agree with.

If you look at the candidates that make up the 0.44% most of them lean Pan-Democratic so we should really call this election 58/42 in favor of Pan-Democratic Bloc which as I mentioned before is really not that bad for the Pan-Establishment if we assume that this election has been turned into a referendum election where the more disparate Pan-Democratic Bloc is able to fuse behind one candidate (mostly.)

The assumption is very reasonable considering all the factors differentiating this election from previous council elections (large turnout, increasingly SAR-wide politicisation of races, etc.)
While not the universally held position that some people are claiming it to be, a 16–point gap is still reasonably significant, although it would be more so if district councils’ jurisdiction extended to federal policy. On the other hand, I fully expect pro-democracy boosters to instead talk about the much more impressive–sounding seat count.

Of course 58/42 is a very significant  gap and in most election systems in the world would put it a landslide levels just like this election.  My point harping on the vote share is that this elections is not an unprecedented rebuke of the administration as it merely replicates all pre-2012 LegCo elections as well as the 2016 PR vote.   Furthermore such a vote share result still would most likely produce a Pro-Establishment majority next year albeit a narrow one. 

I do expect the Lam regime to now meet the protesters not half way but perhaps one quarter way.  If they do not take it and the radical fringe continue the violence then there will be for sure a swing toward the Pro-Establishment camp in next year's LegCo. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #80 on: November 25, 2019, 12:44:48 pm »


Yes – about the only silver lining for the DAB in individual races.


The only other one was the Pro-Establishment managed to beat Eddie Chu(朱凱廸) who is the leader of the Leftist Pan-Democratic Bloc Land Justice League(土地正義聯盟).  His party won almost all their seats but  Eddie Chu(朱凱廸) was defeated in his seat.
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jaichind
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« Reply #81 on: April 06, 2020, 10:33:43 am »



Level of trust in police slowly rising from its nadir in Oct 2019 although still far from the pre-crisis levels of Jun 2019.
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jaichind
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« Reply #82 on: Today at 07:24:08 am »

Re-posting my preliminary look at the probable candidates for the Sept 2020 Legco elections

Speaking of the Sept 2020 LegCo elections I did start to take a look at the likely candidate list and like I hoped the Pan-Democratic and Pan-Localism blocs now risk significant over-nomination of candidates and throwing away their clear vote share advantage.

There are 35 district seats split up into Hong Kong island: 5, Kowloon West: 6,  Kowloon East:5, New Territories West: 9 and New Territories East: 9

Back in 2016 it was Pan-Establishment bloc 16 Pan-Democratic Bloc 13 and Pan-Localism bloc 6.  A good number of Pan-Democratic Bloc and Pan-Localism bloc winners refused to be sworn pledging loyalty to the PRC and lost their seats.

                                          Pan-Establishment    Pan-Democratic    Pan-Localism      Total
Hong Kong island                          3                               2                      1                 5
Kowloon West                               2                               2                      2                 6
Kowloon East                                3                               2                      0                 5
New Territories West                      5                               2                      2                9
New Territories East                      3                               5                       1                9
Total                                          16                             13                       6               35


For 2020, I looked at the candidate list and grouped them into
a) MLC (incumbents or former MLCs)
b) Quality candidate (either a District Council member, or leader of a party or appointed successor of a current MLC)
c) Minor candidates.

If you go with with categorization the candidate list seems to be
                                  
                                    MLC         Quality             Minor         Total
Pan-Establishment           16               2                    4             22
Pan-Democratic               14             21                    5             40
Pan-Localism                    2             10                    6             18

Just like I hoped, the massive Pan-Democratic landslide in 2019 local elections produced a large number of District Council members and are looking take a step up into Legco and leading to an explosion of candidates.  

Back in 2016 the number of candidates by bloc were

                             Total   Quality     Minor
Pan-Establishment   33        21           12
Pan-Democratic       36        23           13
Pan-Localism           15        11            4

It seems the Pan-Establishment Bloc is looking to be be disciplined and will be fighting to keep their 16 seats or perhaps keep their losses to one seat.   It is certain that some of the Pan-Democratic and Pan-Localism candidates will drop out but with so many Quality candidates last minute tactical voting might be tough.  

Going district by district it seems that the Pan-Establishment bloc will lose a seat each in Hong Kong Island, Kowloon East and New Territories West due a turnout surge but over-nomination by the  Pan-Democratic and Pan-Localism blocs could allow them to get away with not losing them.  On the flip side the Pan-Establishment bloc could potentially pickup a seat in Kowloon West and New Territories East  if the Pan-Democratic and Pan-Localism blocs do not coordinate their vote well.  Looking at the way the Pan-Establishment bloc nominated so far it seems they are looking to make gains in  Kowloon West and mostly given up making gains in New Territories East.  In Kowloon West the Pan-Establishment bloc actually saw a vote share surge relative to 2012 but did not nominate enough candidates to take advantage of it.  This time they are calculating that part of their vote share surge in  Kowloon West remain intact to flip a seat despite a worse 2020 environment relative to 2016.

One way to look at the Pan-Establishment strategy is to look at the number of MLC + Quality candidates by district relative to the number of seats it won in 2016

                                                 2016                           2020
                                         Pan-Establishment     Pan-Establishment
                                               Seats              MLC + Quality candidates
Hong Kong island                          3                                3              
Kowloon West                               2                                4
Kowloon East                                3                                3
New Territories West                      5                                5
New Territories East                      3                                3

The number of Pan-Establishment MLC+Quality candidates is the same as the number of Pan-Establishment winners in 2016 with the exception of Kowloon West  where the Pan-Establishment has 4 MLC+Quality candidates versus 2 winners 2016 representing its offensive posture there versus a defensive posture in the other districts.

Of course Sept 2020 is far away so the strategies of all 3 blocs might change.

Unless the Pan-Democratic and Pan-Localism bloc can get organized to slim down their candidates into a series of winnable candidates and weed out the vote splinters their clear  advantage will be thrown away when election day comes.

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jaichind
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« Reply #83 on: Today at 07:51:37 am »

After I categorized likely 2020 Legco candidates by type (current or past MLC, Quality[District council member, leader of a party, designated successor of current MLC), and Minor)

Now comparing the Pan-Democratic and Pan-Localism bloc to get a sense of their strategy.  We already have the Pan-Establishment chart

                                                2016                           2020                         2020
                                         Pan-Establishment     Pan-Establishment         Pan-Establishment
                                               Seats              MLC + Quality candidates     Minor candidate
Hong Kong island                          3                                3                               1
Kowloon West                               2                                4                               1
Kowloon East                                3                                3               
New Territories West                      5                                5                              1
New Territories East                      3                                3                               1

It is clear that the Pan-Establishment bloc is on the offensive in Kowloon West and on the defensive elsewhere hoping to just save their current seats in an environment that will be worse in 2020 than in 2016.

If we cluster Pan-Democratic and Pan-Localism bloc candidates into one Anti-Establishment bloc and look at prospective candidate list we have

                                                2016                           2020                         2020
                                        Anti-Establishment     Anti-Establishment        Anti-Establishment
                                               Seats              MLC + Quality candidates    Minor candidate
Hong Kong island                          3                              11                               
Kowloon West                               4                                7                               4
Kowloon East                                2                                6                               2   
New Territories West                      4                             10                               1
New Territories East                      6                              13                               4

Clearly there is a risk of massive over-nomination and I am sure some of these candidates will forced to drop out or will be victims of tactical voting (mostly for those that are in the Minor candidate camp).  Still overall, their strategy, if you call it that, seems to be very aggressive everywhere except for Kowloon West where the number of serious candidates is not as relatively large compared to the number of 2016 winners.  This is, of course, the mirror image of the Pan-Establishment bloc strategy.

It seems both camps have come to the de facto consensus that the 2016 Kowloon West result of  Pan-Establishment 2 Anti-Establishment 4 does not reflect the total real electoral strength on the ground in 2016 so this time Pan-Establishment bloc is looking to make gains here and the Anti-Establishment bloc is looking to limit losses.  Elsewhere it is the other way around.

There are clear conflict within the Anti-Establishment bloc like between the Pan-Democratic bloc and Pan-Localism bloc. Even within the  Pan-Democratic bloc  there are clear rivalries between the Moderates and Radicals.  Still, in the 2019 Local elections they call came together and mostly fought a 1-to-1 battle against the Pan-Establishment bloc in most of the FPTP seats and winning a massive landslide.

Like I said before, the main problem now is that a lot of 2019 winners now want to take a step up which adds the explosion  of  Quality candidates many of whom might say "why should I back down? this is not FPTP, but multi-member, 2019 showed was have a massive vote share lead so me being in the race can push up Anti-Establishment turnout by bring my personal vote to the ballot box" 

In the end I suspect they will work something out or else this level of over-nomination without clear organized tactically voting could well see the Pan-Establishment bloc actually gain seats relative to 2016 (namely keep all their seats plus flip a seat in Kowloon West) which would be quite ironic as they will clearly see significant vote share falloff from 2016.
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