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  2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election
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Author Topic: 2020 Liberal Democrats Leadership Election  (Read 4985 times)
EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #100 on: May 22, 2020, 09:36:14 am »

The point about Chuka is interesting; we heard locally he was going to get Twickenham (along with stupid rumours he might go for Ealing & Acton or Brentford- the two local labour seats to his home with largish FBPE tendancies) and it was a bit surpise he went for Two cities- although he was actually the favourite for a while.

The party frankly didn't lose anything by him well losing- beyond another talking head for newsnight. He's an idiot who if he wanted a career in politics should have stayed in Labour; he isn't a Lib-Dem by any mark of the word & his colleagues are pretty close to getting what he wanted back (an electable, centre-left, crank free labour party)

On this point I do wonder what people's thoughts are on the ideological implications of the Lib-Dems taking in the defectors- I always thought it was perfectly sensible to take whoever was offered but I do wonder if the party contributed to the idea it had no driving liberal identity because it took people like Umunna, Gyimah, Philip Lee & Angela Smith.

Honestly, they got close enough in Cities that it might have fallen if the campaign had been less disastrous, and it's the only London seat where trying to run without any local government presence or workable voter ID records was actually plausible.

My problem with the idea that the Lib Dems' ideological coherence was harmed by taking in the defectors is that they weren't that coherent beforehand - people are criticising the old Lib Dem model of wanting more housing nationally but none in their constituencies, but that continues to be exactly the line of their local government brigade.

Interestingly, judging by their social media presences Lee seems to be the only one with much interest in hanging around the LDs now, despite having been the one who caused most ructions in the membership.

Yeah; I'll save my rant for why Change-UK should have stayed as a Parliamentary grouping another day but none of the people who joined the Lib Dems did themselves any good. I think it actively contributed internally to the idea that they were a 'stop Brexit at any-cost' party.

The thing about cities is that I didn't realise there was quite a large BAME (I assume laregely afro-carribean) vote which Labour always manages to pull out- it was sh**tty of Labour to target the seat as they knew it would hand it to the Tories still a cynic says it means they've got a shot at the seat in 2024 (I mean what difference did it actually make?)

Definitely not Afro-Caribbean. The 2011 census figures have it at less than 5% black. It's still very white for a central London seat, with the largest minority group being Asians. I can't find a breakdown of that into separate ethnic groups, but I think there's a pretty decent chance that it's one of the few seats where the east Asian population is bigger than the south Asian population.

There's also a sizeable 'Other' population. Again, I don't have a breakdown, but I would note that one of the Labour councillors elected in the constituency in 2014 defected to the Conservatives for reasons that seemed to have more to do with Azerbaijan than his ward.
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Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #101 on: May 22, 2020, 10:38:39 am »


These three things baked in the problems of the campaign; as the small third party it's virtually impossible to overturn them. The report rightly notes too that a lot of money was wasted in the defector seats-Sam Gyimah for example handed Keningston to the Tories & ran a foul campaign accusing the sitting Labour MP of being responsible for the Grenfell fire. (see more below re coupons)

I don't think you can say this at all. The Lib Dem vote in Kensington would've almost certainly come primarily from the very wealthy southern half of the constituency, whilst I think it's highly likely they did pretty poorly in the much poorer north (location of Grenfell). So it's not at all unreasonable to assume most of their voters were ex-Tories. Now who these people would have voted for if it was just a choice between Tory and Labour is another question entirely, but if you look at the available evidence (the Deltapoll) the same % of Lib Dem voters preferred the Tories to Labour as preferred the Labour to the Tories. Thus it is possible that Labour would've held Kensington narrowly without the Lib Dems trying to win but equally the Tories could've won it with a larger majority.

The idea that Lib Dem voters at the last election would've overwhelmingly preferred Labour to the Tories in a binary choice is a myth that needs dispelling (along with the myth that all Brexit Party voters would have voted Tory if the party didn't exist).

I mean re the bolded I never said that & have for a long time I have told Labour people who argued for an alliance that this wasn't the case...

And yeah the various sham People's Vote organisations endorsed Gyimah because he was a high-profile defector & because several of those groups were Lib-Dem fronts (to an extent). They did this on the basis of useless polling as the report makes clear & because Coad was a corbynista.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/tactical-voting-could-deliver-remain-victory-in-election-study

It was for the above reason that I know for a fact from other Labour people that they had a fair amount of confused voters who geneuinely didn't know whether to back the Lib-Dems or Labour as the pro-european to beat the Tories.

My argument (maybe poorly put) was that the pro-european/tactical vote was mixed/botched in Kesington. I know that there were enough tactical voters in these types of seats to make a difference...
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Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #102 on: May 22, 2020, 10:40:14 am »

and to nitpick I'm not sure how many inner city guardianista types they are left in London as we can barely afford the rent in Zone 5- and Moran is very much the candiaite for the suburbs as IIRC she lives in an infamously NIMBY oxfordshire seat
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vileplume
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« Reply #103 on: May 22, 2020, 08:07:53 pm »
« Edited: May 22, 2020, 08:24:34 pm by vileplume »

and to nitpick I'm not sure how many inner city guardianista types they are left in London as we can barely afford the rent in Zone 5- and Moran is very much the candiaite for the suburbs as IIRC she lives in an infamously NIMBY oxfordshire seat

Depends on the type of suburb. But if you mean the type that the Lib Dems came close in last time (weathy, owner occupied, Cameroony) then no, she'd go down like a bucket of cold sick. I live in one of these seats and I know these people. The moment Layla Moran starts banging on about UBI or some extreme sounding gender reform (self ID etc.) these people will go scuttling back to the Tories. If you think the Esher/Harpenden/Wokingham-set will love Moran's brand of politics with all due respect you don't really understand these places at all. Ed Davey's brand of politics on the other hand would be extremely appealing to these types of people and thus the Lib Dems would be mad not to elect him.

Where Moran would do well on the other hand would be in places like my old uni seat of Bristol West. However even if she was able able to win over these 'progressive' (I use the term loosely as many of them tend to be highly authoritarian on things like freedom of speech) voters en-masse she probably still wouldn't be able to capture the seat for her party due to Labour racking up huge majorities in wards like Lawrence Hill (ethnically diverse council estates).

I also don't know why you seem to think the Guardianistas have been driven out of the inner cities, in central Bristol they're everywhere; the amount of ill-fitting patterned trousers, unkempt (often blue) hair and Yoko Ono-style glasses you see you'd almost be forgiven for thinking that God had rained the 11th plague on the city in the form of hippies! Ok, I'm being facetious but the truth of the matter is that these types of people still very much live in the inner cities but the fact that their rents have gone through the roof which has made them essentially poor even on a decent salary. This of course has the knock on effect of making them as economically left-wing as they are socially (hence the support for Corbyn amongst this demographic and also probably a major reason why Labour was able to regain Putney).
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Coldstream
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« Reply #104 on: May 23, 2020, 04:19:07 am »

I canvassed in two Cities and Kensington in the last GE. Incidentally Two cities was for the unlamented Steve Saxby, a man who no one will miss from politics.

I came away thinking that the Lib Demís would easily win two cities whereas there was still some Tory support left in Kensington and comparatively little Lib Dem support (though I think this was before Gyimah announced he was running).

 I remember none of the people I knew thought that Gyimah had a shot and could only cost Labour in Kensington (assisted by the fact that EDC was a less than ideal candidate) whereas the consensus was that Chuka Umunna would win since Two Cities is just so remainy and Mark Field was disgraced. In fact Iím pretty sure had Field been the Tory candidate Umunna would still have narrowly won.

There isnít much of an ethnic minority population in Two Cities, that I saw at least, but thereís quite a lot in next door Vauxhall which might be the source of confusion.

I agree with the above that the Lib Demís would probably do better at picking up the Clegg-Cameron type seats with Ed Davey, whereas all Moran really offers is a chance for a three way competition with Labour and the Greens for the progressive vote which will hurt them in the places they actually need to win to deny a Tory majority (Esher, Guildford, Lewes etc) and be able to be a junior coalition partner again.
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Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #105 on: May 23, 2020, 05:01:45 am »

I mean I'm aware it's hardly data driven analysis but generally a popular leader with a good campaign will have a 'rising tide lifts all boats' effect on seats; there were a lot of seats that Labour won in 2017 which no-one thought they would & where on reflection where awful matches for Corbyn.

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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #106 on: May 23, 2020, 06:10:45 am »

I canvassed in two Cities and Kensington in the last GE. Incidentally Two cities was for the unlamented Steve Saxby, a man who no one will miss from politics.

Eh?

He was selected as candidate originally but withdrew before the 2019 GE after running into trouble.
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Coldstream
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« Reply #107 on: May 23, 2020, 06:35:07 am »
« Edited: May 23, 2020, 06:42:22 am by Coldstream »

I canvassed in two Cities and Kensington in the last GE. Incidentally Two cities was for the unlamented Steve Saxby, a man who no one will miss from politics.

Eh?

He was selected as candidate originally but withdrew before the 2019 GE after running into trouble.

This would have been June, he was still candidate then. I went to uni with one of his children. He didnít withdraw till just before the election when he was suspended as part of the big sexual assault push In September that also caught Jas Athwal and Stephen Hepburn Iirc.

Apologies if the phrasing was unclear, but in my head I think of all of the campaigning 2017-19 as having been ďinĒ the 2019 election cycle.
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