Why isn’t New Hampshire as Democratic as Vermont?

[Tekken_Guy]

Why isn’t New Hampshire an overly Democratic state the way Vermont is?

[Wormless Gourd]

Southeastern NH, the most populated part of the state, is filled with Massachusetts-born commuters, Republican-leaners and retirees. >25% of the state was born in MA now, and you still have dense, growing towns full of "refugees" from the deep blue state.
Closest thing Vermont has to this is some migration into the state by liberal, urban New Yorkers.

[RINO Tom]

Contrary to popular belief on Atlas, people with the means to move to other states are not only Democrats.

[DPKdebator]

New Hampshire receives a steady flow of inward movement from Massachusetts Republicans who want to be within commuting distance in Boston but live somewhere with a more favorable political culture. There's a reason why a lot of the most Republican communities in the state are within a stone's toss from the MA border. As cringenat pointed out, about a quarter of NH residents were born in MA. If only native-born Granite Staters voted, NH would be about as Democratic as Maine is. Meanwhile, Vermont was colonized by hippies from Northeastern urban areas in the late 60s and 70s, which meant that in the aftermath of the religious right realignment and passing away of the old Yankee Republicans, Vermont became solidly Democratic.

[Schiff for Senate]

New Hampshire receives a steady flow of inward movement from Massachusetts Republicans who want to be within commuting distance in Boston but live somewhere with a more favorable political culture. There's a reason why a lot of the most Republican communities in the state are within a stone's toss from the MA border. As cringenat pointed out, about a quarter of NH residents were born in MA. If only native-born Granite Staters voted, NH would be about as Democratic as Maine is. Meanwhile, Vermont was colonized by hippies from Northeastern urban areas in the late 60s and 70s, which meant that in the aftermath of the religious right realignment and passing away of the old Yankee Republicans, Vermont became solidly Democratic.

A great analysis that I agree with almost completely.

[RINO Tom]

New Hampshire receives a steady flow of inward movement from Massachusetts Republicans who want to be within commuting distance in Boston but live somewhere with a more favorable political culture. There's a reason why a lot of the most Republican communities in the state are within a stone's toss from the MA border. As cringenat pointed out, about a quarter of NH residents were born in MA. If only native-born Granite Staters voted, NH would be about as Democratic as Maine is. Meanwhile, Vermont was colonized by hippies from Northeastern urban areas in the late 60s and 70s, which meant that in the aftermath of the religious right realignment and passing away of the old Yankee Republicans, Vermont became solidly Democratic.

Not to go off-topic, but this type of thing is discussed depressingly little here for this allegedly being a site devoted to more in-depth political analysis.  Generational displacement is one of the hardest political trends to quantify or spin a narrative about with Tweets, but it is easily one of the most fascinating.  I remember Adam Griffin showing one time that primary voters in Georgia who are over the age of 90 still pulled a majority of Democratic ballots, and I have found a few cool articles about older Southerners in the 1990s talking about how the younger generation is a lot more open to Republicans than they ever would be.  A similar thing happened in Vermont, and while this obviously was only one factor, it is not often discussed.  A flooding in of new residents or a strong generational shift in political attitudes/loyalties can have a massive effect on a state.

[Gracile]

Interestingly, New Hampshire started as the most Democratic of the three upper New England states, but by the end of the 20th century, it became significantly more Republican than its neighbors.

One factor for this was the transformation of New Hampshire's economy in the late 20th century. New Hampshire had a more industrial economy centered around mill towns where manufacturing industries like textile, brickmaking, and lumber were dominant. Towns along the Merrimack river like Nashua, Manchester, Pembroke, Franklin, and Allenstown were hubs for these industries due to their location. The presence of workers in these industries created a significant support base for Democrats throughout the New Deal era. Additionally, ethnic divisions existed where predominantly French-Canadian and Irish descended workers in these towns had stronger support for the Democratic Party during that same period.

After World War II, these industries started to decline, and in the coming decades, New Hampshire ballooned in size (doubling between 1950 and 1990). Hillsborough and Rockingham counties saw the most concentrated gains, aided by the technology sector's growth that had transformed the old mill towns. New Hampshire's low tax policies also attracted more conservative transplants from Massachusetts. As such, the state's relative affluence and favorability toward limited government policies made it a perfect fit for the Republican Party of the late 20th century. Much of these gains can still be seen today in the towns along the Massachusetts border. However, the Democrats making inroads with knowledge economy workers has been one factor that has aided New Hampshire's transformation to a state that leans Democratic in the 1990s and beyond.

Vermont's political transformation during the same period was motivated both by new left-leaning arrivals (though its population gains were far smaller and slower than New Hampshire) as well as a parochial political culture that was at odds with the national GOP. Liberal Republicanism was virtually extinct by the early 90s. The nationalization of the free-market, neocon, and religious right brand of Republican politics forced the more isolationist, secular, environmentalist state (Vermont had far-reaching environmental policies even while under Republican control) into the Democratic column today.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Interestingly, New Hampshire started as the most Democratic of the three upper New England states, but by the end of the 20th century, it became significantly more Republican than its neighbors.

One factor for this was the transformation of New Hampshire's economy in the late 20th century. New Hampshire had a more industrial economy centered around mill towns where manufacturing industries like textile, brickmaking, and lumber were dominant. Towns along the Merrimack river like Nashua, Manchester, Pembroke, Franklin, and Allenstown were hubs for these industries due to their location. The presence of workers in these industries created a significant support base for Democrats throughout the New Deal era. Additionally, ethnic divisions existed where predominantly French-Canadian and Irish descended workers in these towns had stronger support for the Democratic Party during that same period.

After World War II, these industries started to decline, and in the coming decades, New Hampshire ballooned in size (doubling between 1950 and 1990). Hillsborough and Rockingham counties saw the most concentrated gains, aided by the technology sector's growth that had transformed the old mill towns. New Hampshire's low tax policies also attracted more conservative transplants from Massachusetts. As such, the state's relative affluence and favorability toward limited government policies made it a perfect fit for the Republican Party of the late 20th century. Much of these gains can still be seen today in the towns along the Massachusetts border. However, the Democrats making inroads with knowledge economy workers has been one factor that has aided New Hampshire's transformation to a state that leans Democratic in the 1990s and beyond.

Vermont's political transformation during the same period was motivated both by new left-leaning arrivals (though its population gains were far smaller and slower than New Hampshire) as well as a parochial political culture that was at odds with the national GOP. Liberal Republicanism was virtually extinct by the early 90s. The nationalization of the free-market, neocon, and religious right brand of Republican politics forced the more isolationist, secular, environmentalist state (Vermont had far-reaching environmental policies even while under Republican control) into the Democratic column today.

Two fun tidbits to corroborate this excellent analysis:

In 1920, New Hampshire voted the most Democratic relative to the nation that it ever has in the current two-party system.
In 1988, New Hampshire was Bush Sr's second-strongest state, behind only Utah.

[DPKdebator]

New Hampshire receives a steady flow of inward movement from Massachusetts Republicans who want to be within commuting distance in Boston but live somewhere with a more favorable political culture. There's a reason why a lot of the most Republican communities in the state are within a stone's toss from the MA border. As cringenat pointed out, about a quarter of NH residents were born in MA. If only native-born Granite Staters voted, NH would be about as Democratic as Maine is. Meanwhile, Vermont was colonized by hippies from Northeastern urban areas in the late 60s and 70s, which meant that in the aftermath of the religious right realignment and passing away of the old Yankee Republicans, Vermont became solidly Democratic.

Not to go off-topic, but this type of thing is discussed depressingly little here for this allegedly being a site devoted to more in-depth political analysis.  Generational displacement is one of the hardest political trends to quantify or spin a narrative about with Tweets, but it is easily one of the most fascinating.  I remember Adam Griffin showing one time that primary voters in Georgia who are over the age of 90 still pulled a majority of Democratic ballots, and I have found a few cool articles about older Southerners in the 1990s talking about how the younger generation is a lot more open to Republicans than they ever would be.  A similar thing happened in Vermont, and while this obviously was only one factor, it is not often discussed.  A flooding in of new residents or a strong generational shift in political attitudes/loyalties can have a massive effect on a state.

Older voters in New England skew Democratic compared to the nation as a whole, which is a legacy of the New Deal coalition and Camelot (although the latter is more of a Massachusetts thing). 65+ was Clinton's best age bracket in Maine in 2016 and Biden's second best in 2020 (tied with 18-29), and it was Biden's best age bracket in New Hampshire in 2020 (though it was a tie between Trump and Clinton in 2016). Exit polls aren't the most reliable barometric, but it is a data point that makes me think northern New England is primed to move to the right in the future, especially Maine and maybe Vermont- the latter doesn't get exit polled, but the generation that transformed the state's politics is at or beyond retirement age, so the same forces of generational turnover may have the inverse effect. Some of the trends in New Hampshire in 2020 are a bit iffier and contradict this argument, but rural rightward trends and a steady flow of Republicans from Massachusetts could boost the NHGOP (despite the rough results in the federal races in 2020, it did well in a lot of state/local races)