2022 Senate election: process and results

[😥]

2022 Senate election: process and results (Trump 2th midterm)

Date of beginning: February 15, 2019

[Medal506]

It would probably be a bloodbath for Republicans. Probably an even bigger bloodbath than 2006.

[😥]

It will be close no matter what. The GOP will keep control of the senate after 2022 by one seat. That is the case if they don't loose Pennsylvania.

Washington: Safe DEM, DEM Hold
Oregon: Safe DEM, DEM Hold
California: Safe DEM, DEM Hold
Nevada: Likely DEM, DEM Hold
Hawaii: Safe DEM, DEM Hold
Alaska: Safe GOP, GOP Hold
Idaho: Safe GOP, GOP Hold
Utah: Safe GOP, GOP Hold
North Dakota: Safe GOP, GOP Hold
South Dakota: Safe GOP, GOP Hold
Colorado: Safe DEM, DEM Hold
Kansas: Likely GOP, GOP Hold
Oklahoma: Safe GOP, GOP Hold
Iowa: Likely GOP, GOP Hold
Wisconsin: Tossup
Illinois: Safe DEM, DEM Hold
Missouri: Likely GOP, GOP Hold
Arkansas: Safe GOP, GOP Hold
Louisiana: Safe GOP, GOP Hold
Indiana: Likely GOP, GOP Hold
Ohio: Likely GOP, GOP Hold
Kentucky: Safe GOP, GOP Hold
Pennsylvania: Likely DEM, DEM Gain
New York: Safe DEM, DEM Hold
Vermont: Safe DEM, DEM Hold
New Hampshire: Tossup
Connecticut: Safe DEM, DEM Hold
Maryland: Safe DEM, DEM Hold
North Carolina: Tossup
South Carolina: Safe GOP, GOP Hold
Georgia: Tossup
Mississippi: Safe GOP, GOP Hold
Alabama: Safe GOP, GOP Hold
Florida: Likely GOP, GOP Hold

Why did you rank? I will say in advance, in this TL, many states will vote not as you think

[😥]

2016 ELECTIONS RESULTS

1.President


Donald Trump (R-NY)/Mike Pence (R-IN) 306 EV  46,1%
Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Tim Kaine (D-VA) 232 EV  48,2%

2.Senate


Republican Party: 52 seats (-2)
Democratic Party: 48 seats (+2) (including 2 Independent)

Senate Majority Leader: Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Senate Majority Whip: John Cornyn (R-TX)

Senate Minority Leader: Dick Durbin (D-IL)
Senate Minority Whip: Patty Murray (D-WA)


2018 ELECTIONS RESULTS

1.Senate


Republican Party: 51 seats (+-)
Democratic Party: 49 seats (+-) (including 2 Independent)

Senate Majority Leader: Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Senate Majority Whip: John Thune (R-SD)

Senate Minority Leader: Dick Durbin (D-IL)
Senate Minority Whip: Patty Murray (D-WA)

2.Governors


2020 ELECTIONS RESULTS

1.President


Donald Trump (R-NY)/Mike Pence (R-IN) 275 EV  46,5%
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)/Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-NM) 263 EV  48,4%

2.Senate


Democratic Party: 52 seats (+3) (including 2 Independent)
Republican Party: 48 seats (-3)

Senate Majority Leader: Dick Durbin (D-IL)
Senate Majority Whip: Patty Murray (D-WA)

Senate Minority Leader: John Thune (R-SD)
Senate Minority Whip: John Barrasso (R-WY)

3.Governors

[😥]

Senate elections 2022

                              

Short analysis of all races

15th January 2022

1) Alabama
DEM ?? vs REP K.Ivey, B.Byrne
Rating: Safe R
Incumbent: Richard Shelby (R), retiring

2) Alaska
DEM ?? vs REP L.Murkowski, S.Palin, L.Ingraham
Rating: Likely R
Incumbent: Lisa Murkowski (R), running

3) Arizona
DEM G.Stanton, K.Hobbs vs REP M.McSally
Rating: Lean R
Incumbent: Marta McSally (R), running

4) Arkansas
DEM B.Lincoln vs REP J.Boozman
Rating: Lean R
Incumbent: John Boozman (R), running

5) California
DEM K.Harris vs REP D.Rohrabacher
Rating: Safe D
Incumbent: Kamala Harris (D), running

6) Colorado
DEM M.Bennet vs REP K.Buck, D.Lamborn
Rating: Safe D
Incumbent: Michael Bennet (D), running

7) Connecticut
DEM R.Blumenthal vs REP M.Boughton
Rating: Safe D
Incumbent: Richard Blumenthal (D), running

Florida
DEM A.Gillum vs REP M.Rubio
Rating: Tossup
Incumbent: Marco Rubio (R), running

9) Georgia
DEM J.Carter vs REP D.Perdue
Rating: Tossup
Incumbent: Johnny Isakson (R), retiring

10) Hawaii
DEM B.Schatz vs REP none
Rating: Safe D
Incumbent: Brian Schatz (D), running

11) Idaho
DEM M.Stennett vs REP M.Crapo
Rating: Safe R
Incumbent: Mike Crapo (R), running
 
12) Illinois
DEM T.Duckworth vs REP B.Brady
Rating: Safe D
Incumbent: Tammy Duckworth (D), running

13) Indiana
DEM A.Carson vs REP T.Young
Rating: Lean R
Incumbent: Todd Young (R), running

14) Iowa
DEM F.Hubbell vs REP S.King, J.Whitver
Rating: Lean D (flip)
Incumbent: Chuck Grassley (R), retiring

15) Kansas
DEM J.Svaty vs REP J.Moran
Rating: Likely R
Incumbent: Jerry Moran (R), running

16) Kentucky
DEM A.McGrath, S.Beshear vs REP R.Paul
Rating: Tossup
Incumbent: Rand Paul (R), running

17) Louisiana
DEM J. Bel Edwards vs REP C.Higgins, S.Hewitt
Rating: Lean D (flip)
Incumbent: John N. Kennedy (R), retiring

18) Maryland
DEM C. Van Hollen vs REP ??
Rating: Safe D
Incumbent: Chris Van Hollen (D), running

19) Missouri
DEM L.Clay, J.Nixon vs REP A.Wagner, B.Luetkemeyer
Rating: Tossup
Incumbent: Roy Blunt (R), retiring

20) Nevada
DEM S.Lee vs REP B.Sandoval
Rating: Likely D
Incumbent: Catherine Cortez Masto (D), retiring

21) New Hampshire
DEM M.Hassan vs REP C.Susunu
Rating: Lean D
Incumbent: Maggie Hassan (D), running

22) New York
DEM C.Schumer, A.Ocasio-Cortez vs REP ??
Rating: Safe D
Incumbent: Chuck Schumer (D), running

23) North Carolina
DEM R.Cooper vs REP M.Meadows, P.McCrory
Rating: Likely D (flip)
Incumbent: Richard Burr (R), retiring

24) North Dakota
DEM none vs REP J.Hoeven
Rating: Safe R
Incumbent: John Hoeven (R), running

25) Ohio
DEM T.Strickland, D.O'Connor vs REP R.Portman
Rating: Likely R
Incumbent: Rob Portman (R), running

26) Oklahoma
DEM B.Henry vs REP J.Lankford
Rating: Lean R
Incumbent: James Lankford (R), running

27) Oregon
DEM K.Brown, D.Gomberg, S.Bonamici vs REP A.Olson, R.Noble
Rating: Lean D
Incumbent: Ron Wyden (D), retiring

28) Pennsylvania
DEM C.Lamb vs REP S.Perry
Rating: Lean D (flip)
Incumbent: Pat Tommey (R), retiring

29) South Carolina
DEM J.Hodges vs REP T.Scott
Rating: Lean R
Incumbent: Tim Scott (R), running

30) South Dakota
DEM none vs REP J.Thune
Rating: Safe R
Incumbent: John Thune (R), running

31) Utah
DEM J.Wilson vs REP M.Lee, M.Love
Rating: Safe R
Incumbent: Mike Lee (R), running

32) Vermont
DEM P.Shumlin, P.Welch vs REP J.Benning
Rating: Safe D
Incumbent: Patrick Leahy (D), retiring

33) Washington
DEM P.Murray vs REP D.Rossi
Rating: Likely D
Incumbent: Patty Murray (D), running

34) Wisconsin
DEM R.Feingold, J.Doyle vs REP S.Walker, M.Gallagher
Rating: Tossup
Incumbent: Ron Johnson (R), retiring

[😥]

Analysis Alabama Senate race 2022

15th January 2022
Primary: 28th April
Candidate filing deadline: 13th February

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
     none
2.Potential:
   1) Walt Maddox- U.S. Representative since 2020
   2) Parker Griffin- former U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
     Terri Sewell- U.S.Representative
   

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Kay Ivey- incumbent Governor
   2) Bradley Byrne- former U.S. Representative, 2020 candidate
2.Potential:
   1) Martha Roby- U.S. Representative
   2) Bobby Bright- former U.S. Representative
   3) Jeff Sessions- former U.S. Senator
3.Declined:
   1) Mo Brooks- U.S. Representative, 2017 candidate
   2) Robert Aderholt- former U.S. Representative, 2020 nominee (running for House, endorsed Byrne)
   3) Luther Strange- former U.S. Senator (running for House, endorsed Ivey)

Republican primary polling
K.Ivey---B.Byrne---M.Roby---B.Bright---J.Sessions---???            Date
    19           21              21            14                  20           5
    25           27              24            16                  ---            8
    21           23              24             ---                  26           6     
    22           28              ---             17                  26           7
    27           32              ---              ---                  34           7
    33           33              28             ---                   ---           6       
    32           37              ---             21                   ---          10
    44           48              ---              ---                   ---           8       18/09-11/11
    

Richard Shelby's approval rating
Approve: 1) 55%;  2) 55%;  3) 57%
Dissapprove: 1) 40%;  2) 38%;  3) 38%
Don't know: 1) 5%;  2) 7%;  3) 5%

General election
Polling
K.Ivey---W.Maddox---???          Date        B.Byrne---W.Maddox---???
    63               31           6    18/12-13/01       66                 30           4
    62               33           5    23/12-10/01       67                 28           5

M.Roby---W.Maddox---???                        B.Bright---W.Maddox---???
      67                 27          6   18/12-13/01      60                 35           5
      67                 26          7   23/12-10/01      58                 36           6

J.Sessions---W.Maddox---???
         64                    30          6        18/12-13/01
         65                    31          4        23/12-11/01

Rating:
Cook: Safe R
I.E.: Safe R
Sabato: Safe R
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Safe R
Daily Kos: Safe R       
    

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Is Ocasio-Cortez already eligible to run in 2022. I hope she beats Schumer (but i'm quite sure you won't let that happen in your scenario )

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Is Ocasio-Cortez already eligible to run in 2022. I hope she beats Schumer (but i'm quite sure you won't let that happen in your scenario )

She is eligible but the Dems are planning to Primary her in 2020. She's just oo toxic and she definitely won't primary a true political veteran like Schumer is (being Senate Min Leader also helps Chuck) but if Chuck was to retire, then it could get interesting.

[😥]

Analysis Alaska Senate race 2022

15th January 2022
Primary: 18 September 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 1 June 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared: none
2.Declined:
    Mark Begich- former U.S. Senator, 2018 gubernatorial nominee
  
Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Lisa Murkowski- incumbent U.S. Senator
   2) Sarah Palin- former Governor
   3) Laura Ingraham- Fox News television
2.Declined:
    1) Joe Miller- 2010 nominee, 2014 candidate
    2) Sean Parnell- former Governor
    3) Mike Dunleavy- incumbent Governor

Republican Party primary polling                                      
L.Murkowski---S.Palin---L.Ingraham---???              Date
           36                36               19             9          15/11-27/11
           33                37               20            10         23/11-02/12
           36                34               22             8          03/12-11/12
           32                33               25            10         09/12-18/12
           34                34               26             6          25/12-07/01

Lisa Murkowski's approval rating
Approve: 1) 49%; 2) 51%
Dissapprove: 2) 47%; 2) 44%
Don't know: 1) 4%; 2) 5%

General election

Rating:
Cook: Likely R (Murkowski)
I.E.: Safe R (Palin)
Sabato: Safe R (Murkowski)
NYT: Safe R
CNN: Safe R
RCP: Safe R
Fox News: Safe R (Ingraham)
Daily Kos: Safe R

[UWS]

When is the next update?

[😥]

When is the next update?

I can not say I have a lot of affairs now

[😥]

Analysis Arizona Senate race 2022

15th January 2022
Primary: 01th June 2020
Candidates filing deadline: 31th August 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
   1) Greg Stanton- U.S. Representative
   2) Katie Hobbs- Secretary of State
2.Potential:
    Greg Stanton- U.S. Representative, former Mayor of Phoenix
3.Declined:
   1) David Garcia- incumbent Governor
   2) Steve Farley- state Senator, 2018 gubernatorial candidate

Democratic primary polling
G.Stanton---K.Hobbs---???             Date
       49                 40         11       18/11-24/11
       45                 46          9        10/12-23/12
       47                 44          9        21/12-05/01

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Marta McSally- incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Cindy McCain- former U.S. Senator, wife of John McCain
   2) Meghan McCain- daugther of John McCain (running for House)
   3) Jan Brewer- former Governor
   4) Doug Ducey- incumbent Governor


Martha McSally's approval rating
Approve: 1) 55%; 2) 52%; 3) 53%
Dissapprove: 1) 40%; 2) 44%; 3) 42%
Don't know: 1) 5%; 2) 4%; 3) 5%

General election
Polling
G.Stanton---M.McSally---???      Date  
        45                 50          5    11/11-20/11      
        44                 49          7    18/11-24/11
        46                 50          4    24/12-05/01      
        45                 49          6    02/01-13/01      

       Date          K.Hobbs---M.McSally---???
11/11-20/11          45                 49           6
18/11-24/11          44                 50           6
24/12-05/01          45                 50           5
02/01-13/01          43                 50           7
  
Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean R
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean R
Daily Kos: Lean R

[UWS]

If McSally has over 50 % approval rating, she has a pretty decent chance of winning.

[UWS]

Good idea Meghan McCain running for House. In which congressional district is she running?

[😥]

Good idea Meghan McCain running for House. In which congressional district is she running?

She ran in new 10th district, this is open seat, mostly of territory of 10th district is former 6th district, where David Schweikert is Representative. But Schweikert decide to not run for reelection in 2022

[😥]

Analysis Arkansas Senate race 2022

15th January 2022
Primary: 20 May 2022
Candidates filing deadline: 2 March 2020

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Blanche Lincoln- former U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
    1) Mark Pryor- former U.S. Senator
    2) Mike Ross- former U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    John Boozman- incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
    1) Rick Crawford- U.S. Representative
    2) French Hill- U.S. Representative
    3) Asa Hutchinson- incumbent Governor

John Boozman's approval rating
Approve: 1) 47%; 2) 48%; 3) 46%
Dissapprove: 1) 47%; 2) 45%; 3) 47%
Don't know: 1) 6%; 2) 7%; 3) 7%

General election polling        
J.Boozman---B.Lincoln---???               Date
          50                 43          7             11/09-17/09
          51                 42          7             02/10-27/10  
          49                 45          6             12/10-01/11
          47                 47          6             02/11-05/11 (D-Lincoln)
          46                 47          7             04/11-12/11
          46                 46          8             17/11-28/11
     
Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Lean R
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Lean R
Daily Kos: Tossup

А year ago, in 2021, this place was regarded as safe for the Republicans. In the summer of 2021, the first poll from Blanche Lincoln appeared, which showed that it could win this place. There were rumors about the possibility that a former Senator would consider it possible to run

Blanche Lincoln was relatively young, she would have been 62 years old at the time of the election. Already in September, she confirmed that she is now consulting with her closest circle about the possibility of running

On October 11 she officially announced her candidacy. Initially, John Boozman did not perceive it as a serious challenge, but in January, polls began that slandered Lincoln as the head of the race. It has become dangerous for the Republicans

[😥]

Analysis California Senate race 2022

15th January 2022
Primary: 20 May 2022
Candidates filing deadline: 2 March 2022

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Kamala Harris- incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
    1) Mike Levin- U.S. Representative
    2) Katie Hill- U.S. Representative
    3) Gavin Newsom- incumbent Governor

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Dana Rohrabacher- former U.S. Representatuve
2.Declined:
    1) Devin Nunes- U.S. Representative
    2) Ed Royce- former U.S. Representative
  
Kamala Harris's approval rating
Approve: 1) 52%; 2) 50%; 3) 50%
Dissapprove: 1) 44%; 2) 45%; 3) 44%
Don't know: 1) 4%; 2) 5%; 3) 6%

General election polling        
K.Harris---D.Rohrabacher---???                 Date
      65                     30              5             10/09-17/09
      64                     29              7             02/10-27/10  
      65                     31              4             13/10-01/11
      63                     30              7             02/11-05/11
      65                     28              7             04/11-12/11
      64                     30              6             17/11-28/11
      
Rating:
Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

[OBD]

I sense a third-party candidacy in Alaska coming soon...

[😥]

Analysis Colorado Senate race 2022

15th January 2022
Primary: 20 May 2022
Candidates filing deadline: 2 March 2022

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Michael Bennet- incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Ed Perlmutter- U.S. Representative
   2) Jason Crow- U.S. Representative
   3) Jared Polis- incumbent Governor

Republican Party
1.Declared:
   1) Doug Lamborn- U.S. Representative
   2) Ken Buck- U.S Representative
2.Declined:
    Scott Tipton- U.S. Representative
   
Republican Party primary polling
D.Lamborn---K.Buck---???            Date
         50               44        6       20/11-12/12
         46               46        8       02/12-22/12
         45               46        9       16/12-01/01
         47               46        7       20/12-07/01

Michael Bennet's approval rating
Approve: 1) 53%; 2) 51%; 3) 51%
Dissapprove: 1) 43%; 2) 41%; 3) 42%
Don't know: 1) 4%; 2) 8%; 3) 7%


General election polling        
M.Bennet---D.Lamborn---???                 Date
        62                  30           8             21/11-14/12
        64                  29           7             10/12-27/12  
        63                  31           6             12/12-10/01
     
M.Bennet---K.Buck---???                  Date
        64              30        6             20/11-14/12
        64              29        7             10/12-27/12  
        63              30        7             12/12-10/01
     
Rating:
Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

[UWS]

How does the House of Representatives control looks like? I mean under which party's majority and by how?

[😥]

How does the House of Representatives control looks like? I mean under which party's majority and by how?

Democratic Party: 241 seats
Republican Party: 194 seats

Speaker: Nancy Pelosi (D)
Minority Leader: Kevin McCarthy (R)

The full staffing of states (how many Democrats and Republicans) I will present later

[😥]

House of Representatives 2021-2023

AL: 1D-6R
AK: 1R
AZ: 5D-4R
AR: 4R
CA: 46D, 7R
CO: 4D, 3R
CT: 5D
DE: 1D
FL: 13D, 14R
GA: 6D, 8R (D gain: GA-07)
HI: 2D
ID: 2R
IL: 14D, 4R (D gain: IL-13)
IN: 2D, 7R
IA: 3D, 1R
KS: 1D, 3R
KY: 1D, 5R
LA: 1D, 5R
ME: 2D
MD: 7D, 1R
MA: 9D
MI: 7D, 7R
MN: 5D, 3R
MS: 1D, 3R
MO: 2D, 3R
MT: 1D (D gain MT-at-large)
NE: 1D, 2R (D gain NE-02)
NV: 3D, 1R
NH: 2D
NJ: 11D, 1R
NM: 2D, 1R (R gain NM-02)
NY: 20D, 7R (R gain NY-22)
NC: 4D, 9R (D gain NC-09)
ND: 1R
OH: 4D, 12R
OK: 5R (R gain OK-05)
OR: 4D, 1R
PA: 10D, 8R (D gain PA-10)
RI: 2D
SC: 2D, 5R
SD: 1R
TN: 2D, 7R
TX: 15D, 21R (D gain TX-23, TX-24)
UT: 1D, 3R
VT: 1D
VA: 7D, 4R
WA: 7D, 3R
WV: 3R
WI: 3D, 5R
WY: 1R

[😥]

Analysis Connecticut Senate race 2022

15th January 2022
Primary: 20 May 2022
Candidates filing deadline: 16 August 2022

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
     Richard Blumenthal- incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Declined:
   1) Jim Himes- U.S. Representative
   2) Ned Lamont- incumbent Governor

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Mark Boughton- Mayor of Danbury
2.Declined:
   1) Erin Stewart- Mayor of New Britain
   2) Tony Hwang- State Senator
   
Richard Blumenthal's approval rating
Approve: 1) 54%; 2) 57%; 3) 57%
Dissapprove: 1) 38%; 2) 36%; 3) 39%
Don't know: 1) 8%; 2) 7%; 3) 4%


General election polling        
No polls

Rating:
Cook: Safe D
I.E.: Safe D
Sabato: Safe D
NYT: Safe D
CNN: Safe D
RCP: Safe D
Fox News: Safe D
Daily Kos: Safe D

[😥]

Analysis Florida Senate race 2022

15th January 2022
Primary: 6 May 2022
Candidates filing deadline: 30 August 2022

Democratic Party
1.Declared:
    Andrew Gillum- former Mayor of Talahasee, 2018 gubernatorial nominee
2.Potential:
   1) Stephanie Murphy- U.S. Representative
   2) Gwen Graham- former U.S. Representative
3.Declined:
   1) Charlie Crist- U.S. Representative, former Governor
   2) Kathy Castor- U.S. Representative

Republican Party
1.Declared:
    Marco Rubio- incumbent U.S. Senator
2.Potential:
     Ron DeSantis- incumbent Governor
3.Declined:
   1) Ross Spano- U.S. Representative
   2) Carlos Curbelo- former U.S. Representative
    
Marco Rubio's approval rating
Approve: 1) 49%; 2) 47%; 3) 46%
Dissapprove: 1) 46%; 2) 46%; 3) 46%
Don't know: 1) 5%; 2) 7%; 3) 8%

General election polling        
M.Rubio---A.Gillum---???       Date           M.Rubio---S.Murphy---???
       50              43         7    11/10-19/10         48               46           6
       51              42         7    27/10-09/11         47               47           6
       49              45         6    12/11-25/11         47               45           8
       47              47         6    04/12-25/12         46               47           7
       46              47         7    16/12-09/01         45               47           8
      
M.Rubio---G.Graham---???         Date          
       47                45          8      11/10-19/10        
       48                44          8      27/10-09/11  
       47                46          7      12/11-25/11
       47                47          6      04/12-25/12        
       47                48          5      16/12-09/01  

Rating:
Cook: Tossup
I.E.: Tossup
Sabato: Lean R
NYT: Tossup
CNN: Tossup
RCP: Tossup
Fox News: Tossup
Daily Kos: Tossup

[UWS]

Hoping Rubio wins senate re-election in November. I imagine that Graham and Murphy could divide the blue dog moderate base of the FL Dem Party in favor of Gillum during the senate primary.